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Lecture 2: Back of The Envelope
Lecture 2: Back of The Envelope
To examine this, we will need to learn and use a wide range of tools
August 16, 2005—Speeding from the scene of the crime, a Chinese boy tows a floating plastic bag of stolen
natural gas last week.
ER100 Lecture 2: page 4
ER100 Lecture 2: page 5
ER100 Lecture 2: page 6
„How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb …‟
(Or, the nuclear side of learning to live with new energy issues)
Plug in hybrid with cellulosic ethanol in the tank: 100+ miles per gallon
Breakthrough: stationary and mobile energy sources now linked
10
<550 ppm Trajectory
8 Energy by 2050:
• Coal up 50%, but half of
power stations use CCS.
6 2002 IEA reported fossil • Oil down 10-15%.
emissions plus correction • Gas nearly 2-3x (note: adds
for unsustainable biomass volatility)
4 & deforestation. • Green Hydrogen in use
• Strong shift to electricity as
final energy (~50% final
WRE1000 - we start planning now
2 energy).
WRE 550 - we start acting now • Large increase in nuclear.
WRE 450 - we started to act in 2000, or … • Renewables provide half of
electricity generation.
0
• Vehicle efficiency up 100%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Sustainable biomass
practices
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies, January 2007
ER100 Lecture 2: page 12
The Cascade of Commitment:
IPCC Science, CA and US targets
3.0
1.5
Kyoto protocol
1.0 EU Copenhagen plan
The Obama climate target
0.5 The California target
IPCC Assessment: Climate Stabilization Zone
0.0
Kammen, ―September 27, 2006 – A day to remember‖, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,
ER100 Lecture 2: page 13
Major U.S. Public R&D programs
16 gC / MJ
16 gC 10 J 1MJ 1ton 1GT
18
420EJ 6 6 9
MJ EJ 10 J 10 g 10 tons
18
6700x10 GT(C)
6 6 9
10 x10 x10
[7x10 ]/[10 ]GT(C) 7GT(C)
21 21
ER100 Lecture 2: page 15
IPAT
• Often useful to think of environmental
impact as the product of three factors:
P = P1P2 …Pn
P = (p1er1t) (p2er2t)... (pnernt) = (p1p2...pn)e(r1+r2 + …rn)t
P = Pert
500
GNP
GDP
400
Energy
Carbon
Indexed 300
(1950=100)
200
Carbon
100
37% improvement
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: EIA, BEA, PCAST
ER100 Lecture 2: page 19
U.S. Efficiency Improvements
Savings >$170 billion annually, since 1990
500
GDP
400
Indexed 300
(1950=100)
200
Carbon
100
37% improvement
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: EIA, BEA, PCAST
ER100 Lecture 2: page 20
White‟s Law
“Culture advances as the quantity and quality of energy used
increases. This relationship can be captured formally as an
equation.”
C=kxExT
Leslie White, 1973
C = culture
E = energy
T = technology
k = scaling (efficiency) constant
Source: Natsource
24
CO2 594
Added preindustrial 100 40 280 10 0.35
(GtC) atmosphere
CH4 160 210
100 65
Emission wetlands, ruminants, ? natural gas, landfills, 2.3
(MtC/y) termites, paddies,
coal mines sewage
ocean burning
25%
1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
primary energy
consumption
(quadrillion BTU/year)
200
"hard path" projected by
industry and government
around 1975
150
actual total
consumption
reported by USEIA "soft path" proposed by
100 Lovins in 1976
coal
coal
oil and gas
50
soft technologies
oil and gas (which do not include big
hydro or nuclear)
nuclear
renewables
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Average
Berkeleyite
Energy Star
Average Home
Dane
16,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
year
ER100 Lecture 2: page 34
Consume Less! Generate More!
ER100 Lecture 2: page 35
ER100 Lecture 2: page 36
Technology
10.00
Price/Price in 2000
1.00
Ta
0.10
Tl
Sr
Cs
0.01
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100