Forecasting of Origin Destination Matrix of Freight

Transportation of Surakarta with Maximum Likelihood

Method
Nuning Trisnawati1,a), Syafi’i2,b), Dewi Handayani3,c)
1
Student of Master Program of Civil Engineering, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
2
Lecturer of Departemen of Civil Engineering, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
3
Lecturer of Departemen of Civil Engineering, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia
b)
Corresponding author : Syafii_hn@yahoo.com
a)
nuningtrisnaw@gmail.com
c)
dewi.handayani.sipil.uns@gmail.com

Abstract.

1. INTRODUCTION
Transportation in general has a considerable influence on economic growth in Indonesia, including in the city of
Surakata. High economic growth will increase the number of people and goods movements. Demand for freight
transportation continues to increase due to the increase in population, thus causing an increase in transportation
facilities and infrastructure. Transportation as a means of liaison between demand (demand) and supplies (supply)
goods that can affect the welfare of the economy. However, this may also negatively affect transport problems.
Frequent transportation problems are uneven transportation infrastructure (fixed road network capacity) along with
the frequency of movement, traffic congestion delays, delays, accidents and pollution. The cause of congestion
occurring in the city of Surakata mostly also occurs due to freight transortation entering in urban areas, the volume
of vehicle capacity is too large, the occurrence of unloading system is not good, the increase in vehicle volume
during peak hours will slow the movement of vehicles that will aggravate congestion in primary artery tissue. That
way, traffic performance will also decrease significantly from year to year.
Surakarta City Government has issued several policies to solve the congestion problem in Surakarta, such as by
implementing traffic management or road network capacity improvement through road widening, fly over /
underpass development and toll road development policy. However, the above efforts are usually done when a
severe congestion has occurred in the road network. Therefore, transportation planning is needed to reduce the
possibility of future congestion. As well as required transportation planning as an indicator of a number of
movement patterns. The purpose of this research is to know the performance of road network, to make the freight
transportation planning through the development of transportation model of goods and to predict the impact on
congestion in 2025 in Surakarta city where in that year the making of Toll connecting road Solo-Kertosono and
Solo-Surakarta is estimated to have been completed and ready to use.
In this research, the process of loading to the transport network system using EMME / 3 software (multimodal
equilibrium, multimodal equilibrium). EMME is a professional software in forecasting a journey. EMME / 3 is a
development of the previous program that is EMME / 2 created and developed in INRO Consultant University de
Morel, Canada with very high capabilities, with unlimited number of nodes and links. While for forecasting of
freight transportation matrix in the year of plan 2025 using Gravity model testimony of maximum resemblance that
there is parameter β. Where in the previous research no one has predicted the matrix of origin of freight transport in
Indonesia. The primary data volume of traffic carried on the morning peak hour in some streets in the city Suakarta.
 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

According to Tamin, (2000) the pattern of movement in transport is often explained in the form of movement of
movement (vehicles, passengers, and goods) moving from the original zone to the destination zone within a certain
area and over a period of time. Movement Matrices or Original Matrices Objectives are often used by transportation
planners to describe the pattern of movement. Tae Sung Hwang (2014) analyzed the problem of goods transport
from the national point of view of intra-regional flows in urban areas using a four-stage model consisting of trip
generation, trip distribution, split capital and traffic assignment. In its research cases of intra-regional goods
movement, modeling of various models and methodologies of logistics system optimization are applied to address
the problem of large-scale shipments in U.S. transport zones.
The research that has been done by Igor, et al (2013) estimates the current of the debt by means of the gravity
model so that it is obtained by the flow of OD load between regions corresponding to the volume. Olga Ivanora
(2014) analyzes the effectiveness of input-output method, Gravity an SCGE to capitalize inter-regional freight
transport explains that gravity method is proved statistically because of the concept of R 2 owned by gravity model.
Guoqiang Shen et al (2014) developed a log-linear regression approach to estimate lost odd matrix (OD) data that
follows a gravity pattern pattern, this approach is tested by a randomly selected sample from a known part of the OD
Commodity Flow Survey CFS) OD and US OD tonnage Matrix 2007 at the state level
The objective function of the matrix estimation consists of the first two types of traffic flow from the model
approaching the current and the second model, find a matrix solution near the previous matrix. Several methods
have been developed are Leonardo Caggiani (2012) Estimated Matrikso Origin destination uses data prior matrix
and traffic count. Estimation of trip generation attraction of dynamic using algorithm based simulation DTA
(Dynamic Traffic Assignment). To estimate the MAT with the least squares method. The finally result of this study is
a presentation of progress gained by DTA modeling. Paul Metaxatox (2003), In this study proposes a spatial
interaction modeling framework and applies the maximum likelihood estimation of the method of cargo weight of
the highway and current values using the gravity model. The results provide evidence of the suitability of the gravity
model for very suitable forecasting of goods and their small variance. Resita Arum Permata (2015) conducting
research on estimates of road network performance in the city of Surakarta using software EMME/3 with Maximum
likelihood method. The validity of using the coefficient of determination (R2), the value of the parameter β using
Matlab software application is 0,00054. From the results calculation with EMME / 3 is the total number of
movement of Surakarta 2015 is 47549 smp/hour validation level (R2) obtained at 0,799.
In this study using Maximum likelihood method (KM) for estimating the parameters of the graphity mode.
Maximum likelihood method (KM) used to specify function parameters. From a set of data x1, x2, x3……., xn which is a
member of a random variable x with an opportunity density function f(x;θ) is the parameter. (Tamin, 200).
with density functional theory combined opportunities, the possibility to get out of x1, x2, x3……., xn is:

(4)
Which are called function of Maximum-likeness-assessment x1, x2, x3……., xn. because L-shaped multiplication
becomes easier if it states in its logarithmic form :

(5)
The parameter value θ can be searched by using derivative L(x1,…., xn ; θ) equal to zero.

or (6)

or (7)
The reduction of multi-modal distribution through the Type Maximum likelihood method I (KM I) can be expressed
as follows:

(8)
The value of pi can be as a function of one or more parameters that can be represented by θ so te Maximum
likelihood method function θ for certain samples following multimodal distribution can be written as follows:
(9)
Value expressed as constants k. for example pid is the opportunity to obtain certain data from trip
distribution between modes coming from the zone i to the destination zone d, then:

(10)

(11)
The likeness-assessment function for obtaining distribution for each zone pair i and zone d is:

p
(12)
The objective function of this method is to maximize:

p
(13)
With tota trip restrictions :

(14)
By taking the logarithmic function, then the equation (13) and (14), Maximize L1

(15)

By entering the equation (8) to (13) obtained :

(16)
The total restriction of trip must be fulfilled, so the assumption of value θ =1. By eliminating the equation constant
(15), then the purpose of this method of estimation becomes: Maximize L2

(17)

3. METODOLOGY

The research location is a network of roads in Surakarta City. Surakarta city is located in Central Java Province.
Administratively, Surakarta City is adjacent to other second level regions, namely the north side are Karanganyar
regency and Boyolali, South side is Sukoharjo District, West side is Sukoharjo and East side is Karanganyar
districts. The zone system is based on administrative boundaries. There is a zone consisting of 51 internal zones
(entire villages Surakarta) and 14 external zone (villages around outside Surakarta). Each zone is represented by a
single center or a zone that can be referred to as centroid, which is then connected to one of the vertices of the
road network (node) with the connector (centroid connector). The road network included in this study is arterial
and collector road as shown in Fig. 1. The primary data obtained from direct observation of data in the form of
freight transport. While the secondary data is a road network map and road classification data. Collecting data traffic
volume held in the morning peak hour (6:00 to 8:00 am).
EMME/3 software is used to calculate the OD matrix. Some of the data entered into the network editor EMME/3
that mode, nodes, networks, coordinates, road network capacity, road width, lane type. In this study the calculation
of road network capacity based on Indonesia Highway Capacity Manual (IHCM). Data traffic calculation using
matrix estimation approach is Maximum likelihood method (KM). Testing its validity by means of coefficient of
determination (R2) the result of modeling with the traffic flow in the field (traffic count) and the current model using
software EMME/3. In this study estimating of OD matrix freight transport in 2025. OD matrix in 2025 is obtained
using gavity models ith the parameter β obtained in the preious step. Number of trip at origin (O i) and destination
(Dj) in 2025 is calculated base don Oi and Dj in 2017 using growth factor. The finally result of this study we can
know the traffic flow and the road network performance freight transport in 2025.

FIGURE 1. Surakarta city road network

4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

5. CONCLUTION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to acknowledge Ministry of Research Technology and Higher Education Republic of
Indonesia for funding support of the research project on.

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