U.S.

Census
U.S. Census Bureau
Bureau at
at
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/historical_data/index.html
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/historical_data/index.html
This series
This series has
has been
been seasonally
seasonallyadjusted
adjusted and
and expressed
expressed as
as annual
annual
rates.
rates.
Month Houses Sold
Jan-91 401
Feb-91 482
Mar-91 507
Apr-91 508
May-91 517
Jun-91 516
Jul-91 511
Aug-91 526
Sep-91 487
Oct-91 524
Nov-91 575
Dec-91 558
Jan-92 676
Feb-92 639
Mar-92 554
Apr-92 546
May-92 554
Jun-92 596
Jul-92 627
Aug-92 636
Sep-92 650
Oct-92 621
Nov-92 614
Dec-92 650
Jan-93 596
Feb-93 604
Mar-93 602
Apr-93 701
May-93 626
Jun-93 653
Jul-93 655
Aug-93 645
Sep-93 726
Oct-93 704
Nov-93 769
Dec-93 812
Jan-94 619
Feb-94 686
Mar-94 747
Apr-94 692
May-94 691
Jun-94 621
Jul-94 628
Aug-94 656
Sep-94 677
Oct-94 715
Nov-94 646
Dec-94 629
Jan-95 626
Feb-95 559
Mar-95 616
Apr-95 621
May-95 674
Jun-95 725
Jul-95 765
Aug-95 701
Sep-95 678
Oct-95 696
Nov-95 664
Dec-95 709
Jan-96 714
Feb-96 769
Mar-96 721
Apr-96 736
May-96 746
Jun-96 721
Jul-96 770
Aug-96 826
Sep-96 770
Oct-96 720
Nov-96 771
Dec-96 805
Jan-97 830
Feb-97 801
Mar-97 831
Apr-97 744
May-97 760
Jun-97 793
Jul-97 805
Aug-97 815
Sep-97 840
Oct-97 800
Nov-97 864
Dec-97 793
Jan-98 872
Feb-98 866
Mar-98 836
Apr-98 866
May-98 887
Jun-98 923
Jul-98 876
Aug-98 846
Sep-98 864
Oct-98 893
Nov-98 995
Dec-98 949
Jan-99 875
Feb-99 848
Mar-99 863
Apr-99 918
May-99 888
Jun-99 923
Jul-99 900
Aug-99 893
Sep-99 826
Oct-99 872
Nov-99 863
Dec-99 873
Jan-00 873
Feb-00 856
Mar-00 900
Apr-00 841
May-00 857
Jun-00 793
Jul-00 887
Aug-00 848
Sep-00 912
Oct-00 933
Nov-00 880
Dec-00 983
Jan-01 936
Feb-01 963
Mar-01 939
Apr-01 909
May-01 885
Jun-01 882
Jul-01 880
Aug-01 866
Sep-01 853
Oct-01 871
Nov-01 924
Dec-01 979
Jan-02 880
Feb-02 948
Mar-02 923
Apr-02 936
May-02 978
Jun-02 957
Jul-02 956
Aug-02 1,014
Sep-02 1,044
Oct-02 1,006
Nov-02 1,024
Dec-02 1,048
Jan-03 999
Feb-03 936
Mar-03 999
Apr-03 1,012
May-03 1,078
Jun-03 1,193
Jul-03 1,168
Aug-03 1,206
Sep-03 1,131
Oct-03 1,144
Nov-03 1,093
Dec-03 1,129
Jan-04 1,165
Feb-04 1,159
Mar-04 1,276
Apr-04 1,186
May-04 1,241
Jun-04 1,180
Jul-04 1,088
Aug-04 1,175
Sep-04 1,214
Oct-04 1,305
Nov-04 1,179
Dec-04 1,242
Jan-05 1,203
Feb-05 1,319
Mar-05 1,328
Apr-05 1,260
May-05 1,286
Jun-05 1,274
Jul-05 1,389
Aug-05 1,255
Sep-05 1,244
Oct-05 1,336
Nov-05 1,214
Dec-05 1,239
Jan-06 1,174
Feb-06 1,061
Mar-06 1,116
Apr-06 1,123
May-06 1,086
Jun-06 1,074
Jul-06 965
Aug-06 1,035
Sep-06 1,016
Oct-06 941
Nov-06 1,003
Dec-06 998
Jan-07 891
Feb-07 828
Mar-07 833
Apr-07 887
May-07 842
Jun-07 793
Jul-07 778
Aug-07 699
Sep-07 686
Oct-07 727
Nov-07 641
Dec-07 619
Jan-08 627
Feb-08 593
Mar-08 535
Apr-08 536
May-08 504
Jun-08 487
Jul-08 477
Aug-08 435
Sep-08 433
Oct-08 393
Nov-08 389
Dec-08 377
Jan-09 336
Feb-09 372
Mar-09 339
Apr-09 337
May-09 376
Jun-09 393
Jul-09 411
Aug-09 418
Sep-09 386
Oct-09 396
Nov-09 375
Dec-09 352
Jan-10 345
Feb-10 336
Mar-10 381
Apr-10 422
May-10 280
Jun-10 305
Jul-10 283
Aug-10 282
Sep-10 317
Oct-10 291
Nov-10 287
Dec-10 326
Jan-11 307
Feb-11 270
Mar-11 300
Apr-11 310
May-11 305
Jun-11 301
Jul-11 296
Aug-11 299
Sep-11 304
Oct-11 316
Nov-11 328
Dec-11 341
Jan-12 335
Feb-12 366
Mar-12 354
Apr-12 354
May-12 370
Jun-12 360
Jul-12 369
Aug-12 375
Sep-12 385
Oct-12 358
Nov-12 392
Dec-12 399
Jan-13 442
Feb-13 439
Mar-13 449
Apr-13 451
May-13 430
Jun-13 463
Jul-13 376
Aug-13 380
Sep-13 399
Oct-13 444
Nov-13 446
Dec-13 441
Jan-14 446
Feb-14 417
Mar-14 410
Apr-14 410
May-14 457
Jun-14 408
Jul-14 403
Aug-14 454
Sep-14 459
Oct-14 472
Nov-14 449
Dec-14 495
Jan-15 521
Feb-15 545
Mar-15 485
Apr-15 523
May-15 517
Jun-15 482
StatTools Report
Analysis: Forecast
Performed By: UMA
Date: 27-Dec-17
Updating: Live/Unlinked

Moving Averages Forecasts for Houses Sold

Forecasting Constant
Span 6

Moving Averages
Mean Abs Err 43.58
Root Mean Sq Err 56.23
Mean Abs Per% Err 6.57%

Forecast and Original Observations

1600.00

1400.00

1200.00

1000.00

800.00 Houses Sold

Forecast
600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00
Jan-1991

Jan-1996

Jan-2001

Jan-2006
Nov-1991

Jul-1993
May-1994

Nov-1996

Jul-1998
May-1999

Nov-2001

Jul-2003
May-2004
Mar-2005

Sep-2007
Jul-2008
May-2009

Jan-2011

Sep-2012
Jul-2013
May-2014

Jan-2016
Sep-1992

Mar-1995

Sep-1997

Mar-2000

Sep-2002

Nov-2006

Mar-2010

Nov-2011

Mar-2015

Forecasting Data Houses Sold Forecast Error

Jan-1991 401.00
Feb-1991 482.00
Mar-1991 507.00
Apr-1991 508.00
May-1991 517.00
Jun-1991 516.00
Jul-1991 511.00 488.50 22.50
Aug-1991 526.00 506.83 19.17
Sep-1991 487.00 514.17 -27.17
Oct-1991 524.00 510.83 13.17
Nov-1991 575.00 513.50 61.50
Dec-1991 558.00 523.17 34.83
Jan-1992 676.00 530.17 145.83
Feb-1992 639.00 557.67 81.33
Mar-1992 554.00 576.50 -22.50
Apr-1992 546.00 587.67 -41.67
May-1992 554.00 591.33 -37.33
Jun-1992 596.00 587.83 8.17
Jul-1992 627.00 594.17 32.83
Aug-1992 636.00 586.00 50.00
Sep-1992 650.00 585.50 64.50
Oct-1992 621.00 601.50 19.50
Nov-1992 614.00 614.00 0.00
Dec-1992 650.00 624.00 26.00
Jan-1993 596.00 633.00 -37.00
Feb-1993 604.00 627.83 -23.83
Mar-1993 602.00 622.50 -20.50
Apr-1993 701.00 614.50 86.50
May-1993 626.00 627.83 -1.83
Jun-1993 653.00 629.83 23.17
Jul-1993 655.00 630.33 24.67
Aug-1993 645.00 640.17 4.83
Sep-1993 726.00 647.00 79.00
Oct-1993 704.00 667.67 36.33
Nov-1993 769.00 668.17 100.83
Dec-1993 812.00 692.00 120.00
Jan-1994 619.00 718.50 -99.50
Feb-1994 686.00 712.50 -26.50
Mar-1994 747.00 719.33 27.67
Apr-1994 692.00 722.83 -30.83
May-1994 691.00 720.83 -29.83
Jun-1994 621.00 707.83 -86.83
Jul-1994 628.00 676.00 -48.00
Aug-1994 656.00 677.50 -21.50
Sep-1994 677.00 672.50 4.50
Oct-1994 715.00 660.83 54.17
Nov-1994 646.00 664.67 -18.67
Dec-1994 629.00 657.17 -28.17
Jan-1995 626.00 658.50 -32.50
Feb-1995 559.00 658.17 -99.17
Mar-1995 616.00 642.00 -26.00
Apr-1995 621.00 631.83 -10.83
May-1995 674.00 616.17 57.83
Jun-1995 725.00 620.83 104.17
Jul-1995 765.00 636.83 128.17
Aug-1995 701.00 660.00 41.00
Sep-1995 678.00 683.67 -5.67
Oct-1995 696.00 694.00 2.00
Nov-1995 664.00 706.50 -42.50
Dec-1995 709.00 704.83 4.17
Jan-1996 714.00 702.17 11.83
Feb-1996 769.00 693.67 75.33
Mar-1996 721.00 705.00 16.00
Apr-1996 736.00 712.17 23.83
May-1996 746.00 718.83 27.17
Jun-1996 721.00 732.50 -11.50
Jul-1996 770.00 734.50 35.50
Aug-1996 826.00 743.83 82.17
Sep-1996 770.00 753.33 16.67
Oct-1996 720.00 761.50 -41.50
Nov-1996 771.00 758.83 12.17
Dec-1996 805.00 763.00 42.00
Jan-1997 830.00 777.00 53.00
Feb-1997 801.00 787.00 14.00
Mar-1997 831.00 782.83 48.17
Apr-1997 744.00 793.00 -49.00
May-1997 760.00 797.00 -37.00
Jun-1997 793.00 795.17 -2.17
Jul-1997 805.00 793.17 11.83
Aug-1997 815.00 789.00 26.00
Sep-1997 840.00 791.33 48.67
Oct-1997 800.00 792.83 7.17
Nov-1997 864.00 802.17 61.83
Dec-1997 793.00 819.50 -26.50
Jan-1998 872.00 819.50 52.50
Feb-1998 866.00 830.67 35.33
Mar-1998 836.00 839.17 -3.17
Apr-1998 866.00 838.50 27.50
May-1998 887.00 849.50 37.50
Jun-1998 923.00 853.33 69.67
Jul-1998 876.00 875.00 1.00
Aug-1998 846.00 875.67 -29.67
Sep-1998 864.00 872.33 -8.33
Oct-1998 893.00 877.00 16.00
Nov-1998 995.00 881.50 113.50
Dec-1998 949.00 899.50 49.50
Jan-1999 875.00 903.83 -28.83
Feb-1999 848.00 903.67 -55.67
Mar-1999 863.00 904.00 -41.00
Apr-1999 918.00 903.83 14.17
May-1999 888.00 908.00 -20.00
Jun-1999 923.00 890.17 32.83
Jul-1999 900.00 885.83 14.17
Aug-1999 893.00 890.00 3.00
Sep-1999 826.00 897.50 -71.50
Oct-1999 872.00 891.33 -19.33
Nov-1999 863.00 883.67 -20.67
Dec-1999 873.00 879.50 -6.50
Jan-2000 873.00 871.17 1.83
Feb-2000 856.00 866.67 -10.67
Mar-2000 900.00 860.50 39.50
Apr-2000 841.00 872.83 -31.83
May-2000 857.00 867.67 -10.67
Jun-2000 793.00 866.67 -73.67
Jul-2000 887.00 853.33 33.67
Aug-2000 848.00 855.67 -7.67
Sep-2000 912.00 854.33 57.67
Oct-2000 933.00 856.33 76.67
Nov-2000 880.00 871.67 8.33
Dec-2000 983.00 875.50 107.50
Jan-2001 936.00 907.17 28.83
Feb-2001 963.00 915.33 47.67
Mar-2001 939.00 934.50 4.50
Apr-2001 909.00 939.00 -30.00
May-2001 885.00 935.00 -50.00
Jun-2001 882.00 935.83 -53.83
Jul-2001 880.00 919.00 -39.00
Aug-2001 866.00 909.67 -43.67
Sep-2001 853.00 893.50 -40.50
Oct-2001 871.00 879.17 -8.17
Nov-2001 924.00 872.83 51.17
Dec-2001 979.00 879.33 99.67
Jan-2002 880.00 895.50 -15.50
Feb-2002 948.00 895.50 52.50
Mar-2002 923.00 909.17 13.83
Apr-2002 936.00 920.83 15.17
May-2002 978.00 931.67 46.33
Jun-2002 957.00 940.67 16.33
Jul-2002 956.00 937.00 19.00
Aug-2002 1014.00 949.67 64.33
Sep-2002 1044.00 960.67 83.33
Oct-2002 1006.00 980.83 25.17
Nov-2002 1024.00 992.50 31.50
Dec-2002 1048.00 1000.17 47.83
Jan-2003 999.00 1015.33 -16.33
Feb-2003 936.00 1022.50 -86.50
Mar-2003 999.00 1009.50 -10.50
Apr-2003 1012.00 1002.00 10.00
May-2003 1078.00 1003.00 75.00
Jun-2003 1193.00 1012.00 181.00
Jul-2003 1168.00 1036.17 131.83
Aug-2003 1206.00 1064.33 141.67
Sep-2003 1131.00 1109.33 21.67
Oct-2003 1144.00 1131.33 12.67
Nov-2003 1093.00 1153.33 -60.33
Dec-2003 1129.00 1155.83 -26.83
Jan-2004 1165.00 1145.17 19.83
Feb-2004 1159.00 1144.67 14.33
Mar-2004 1276.00 1136.83 139.17
Apr-2004 1186.00 1161.00 25.00
May-2004 1241.00 1168.00 73.00
Jun-2004 1180.00 1192.67 -12.67
Jul-2004 1088.00 1201.17 -113.17
Aug-2004 1175.00 1188.33 -13.33
Sep-2004 1214.00 1191.00 23.00
Oct-2004 1305.00 1180.67 124.33
Nov-2004 1179.00 1200.50 -21.50
Dec-2004 1242.00 1190.17 51.83
Jan-2005 1203.00 1200.50 2.50
Feb-2005 1319.00 1219.67 99.33
Mar-2005 1328.00 1243.67 84.33
Apr-2005 1260.00 1262.67 -2.67
May-2005 1286.00 1255.17 30.83
Jun-2005 1274.00 1273.00 1.00
Jul-2005 1389.00 1278.33 110.67
Aug-2005 1255.00 1309.33 -54.33
Sep-2005 1244.00 1298.67 -54.67
Oct-2005 1336.00 1284.67 51.33
Nov-2005 1214.00 1297.33 -83.33
Dec-2005 1239.00 1285.33 -46.33
Jan-2006 1174.00 1279.50 -105.50
Feb-2006 1061.00 1243.67 -182.67
Mar-2006 1116.00 1211.33 -95.33
Apr-2006 1123.00 1190.00 -67.00
May-2006 1086.00 1154.50 -68.50
Jun-2006 1074.00 1133.17 -59.17
Jul-2006 965.00 1105.67 -140.67
Aug-2006 1035.00 1070.83 -35.83
Sep-2006 1016.00 1066.50 -50.50
Oct-2006 941.00 1049.83 -108.83
Nov-2006 1003.00 1019.50 -16.50
Dec-2006 998.00 1005.67 -7.67
Jan-2007 891.00 993.00 -102.00
Feb-2007 828.00 980.67 -152.67
Mar-2007 833.00 946.17 -113.17
Apr-2007 887.00 915.67 -28.67
May-2007 842.00 906.67 -64.67
Jun-2007 793.00 879.83 -86.83
Jul-2007 778.00 845.67 -67.67
Aug-2007 699.00 826.83 -127.83
Sep-2007 686.00 805.33 -119.33
Oct-2007 727.00 780.83 -53.83
Nov-2007 641.00 754.17 -113.17
Dec-2007 619.00 720.67 -101.67
Jan-2008 627.00 691.67 -64.67
Feb-2008 593.00 666.50 -73.50
Mar-2008 535.00 648.83 -113.83
Apr-2008 536.00 623.67 -87.67
May-2008 504.00 591.83 -87.83
Jun-2008 487.00 569.00 -82.00
Jul-2008 477.00 547.00 -70.00
Aug-2008 435.00 522.00 -87.00
Sep-2008 433.00 495.67 -62.67
Oct-2008 393.00 478.67 -85.67
Nov-2008 389.00 454.83 -65.83
Dec-2008 377.00 435.67 -58.67
Jan-2009 336.00 417.33 -81.33
Feb-2009 372.00 393.83 -21.83
Mar-2009 339.00 383.33 -44.33
Apr-2009 337.00 367.67 -30.67
May-2009 376.00 358.33 17.67
Jun-2009 393.00 356.17 36.83
Jul-2009 411.00 358.83 52.17
Aug-2009 418.00 371.33 46.67
Sep-2009 386.00 379.00 7.00
Oct-2009 396.00 386.83 9.17
Nov-2009 375.00 396.67 -21.67
Dec-2009 352.00 396.50 -44.50
Jan-2010 345.00 389.67 -44.67
Feb-2010 336.00 378.67 -42.67
Mar-2010 381.00 365.00 16.00
Apr-2010 422.00 364.17 57.83
May-2010 280.00 368.50 -88.50
Jun-2010 305.00 352.67 -47.67
Jul-2010 283.00 344.83 -61.83
Aug-2010 282.00 334.50 -52.50
Sep-2010 317.00 325.50 -8.50
Oct-2010 291.00 314.83 -23.83
Nov-2010 287.00 293.00 -6.00
Dec-2010 326.00 294.17 31.83
Jan-2011 307.00 297.67 9.33
Feb-2011 270.00 301.67 -31.67
Mar-2011 300.00 299.67 0.33
Apr-2011 310.00 296.83 13.17
May-2011 305.00 300.00 5.00
Jun-2011 301.00 303.00 -2.00
Jul-2011 296.00 298.83 -2.83
Aug-2011 299.00 297.00 2.00
Sep-2011 304.00 301.83 2.17
Oct-2011 316.00 302.50 13.50
Nov-2011 328.00 303.50 24.50
Dec-2011 341.00 307.33 33.67
Jan-2012 335.00 314.00 21.00
Feb-2012 366.00 320.50 45.50
Mar-2012 354.00 331.67 22.33
Apr-2012 354.00 340.00 14.00
May-2012 370.00 346.33 23.67
Jun-2012 360.00 353.33 6.67
Jul-2012 369.00 356.50 12.50
Aug-2012 375.00 362.17 12.83
Sep-2012 385.00 363.67 21.33
Oct-2012 358.00 368.83 -10.83
Nov-2012 392.00 369.50 22.50
Dec-2012 399.00 373.17 25.83
Jan-2013 442.00 379.67 62.33
Feb-2013 439.00 391.83 47.17
Mar-2013 449.00 402.50 46.50
Apr-2013 451.00 413.17 37.83
May-2013 430.00 428.67 1.33
Jun-2013 463.00 435.00 28.00
Jul-2013 376.00 445.67 -69.67
Aug-2013 380.00 434.67 -54.67
Sep-2013 399.00 424.83 -25.83
Oct-2013 444.00 416.50 27.50
Nov-2013 446.00 415.33 30.67
Dec-2013 441.00 418.00 23.00
Jan-2014 446.00 414.33 31.67
Feb-2014 417.00 426.00 -9.00
Mar-2014 410.00 432.17 -22.17
Apr-2014 410.00 434.00 -24.00
May-2014 457.00 428.33 28.67
Jun-2014 408.00 430.17 -22.17
Jul-2014 403.00 424.67 -21.67
Aug-2014 454.00 417.50 36.50
Sep-2014 459.00 423.67 35.33
Oct-2014 472.00 431.83 40.17
Nov-2014 449.00 442.17 6.83
Dec-2014 495.00 440.83 54.17
Jan-2015 521.00 455.33 65.67
Feb-2015 545.00 475.00 70.00
Mar-2015 485.00 490.17 -5.17
Apr-2015 523.00 494.50 28.50
May-2015 517.00 503.00 14.00
Jun-2015 482.00 514.33 -32.33
Jul-2015 512.17
Aug-2015 510.69
Sep-2015 504.98
Oct-2015 508.31
Nov-2015 505.86
Dec-2015 504.00
Jan-2016 507.67
Feb-2016 506.92
Mar-2016 506.29
Apr-2016 506.51
May-2016 506.21
Jun-2016 506.26