Commodity Research Report 19 March 2018 Ways2Capital

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HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.

Market Wrap-Up

MCX Market Wrap-Up


Previous % Change in % Change in % Change
Commodity Contract Open High Low Close
Close Price Open Interest in Volume
Aluminium 30-Mar-18 137.40 137.05 137.35 134.10 134.95 -1.78% -33.44% 64.99%
Copper 30-Apr-18 452.30 452.65 458.60 446.30 448.55 -0.83% -21.89% 21.68%
Crude Oil 19-Apr-18 4023 4042 4070 3922 4065 1.04% 134.23% 18.84%
Gold 05-Apr-18 30401 30403 30546 30145 30224 -0.58% -7.92% -1.72%
Lead 30-Mar-18 155.40 155.30 158.95 150.65 155.05 -0.23% -95.61% -13.93%
Natural Gas 26-Mar-18 178.10 178.50 183.00 173.70 175.10 -1.68% -26.04% 4.09%
Nickel 30-Mar-18 896.70 892.40 908.00 877.60 883.60 -1.46% -40.77% -10.28%
Silver 04-May-18 38947 38925 39076 38171 38358 -1.51% -24.91% 25.82%
Zinc 30-Mar-18 214.35 213.25 214.90 208.10 212.20 -1.00% -21.75% 16.89%

NCDEX Market Wrap-Up


Previous % Change % Change in % Change in
Commodity Contract Open High Low Close
Close in Price Open Interest Volume
Castor Seed 20-Apr-18 4246 4220 4260 4160 4242 -0.09% -11.83% 428.24%

Chana 20-Apr-18 3738 3721 3785 3603 3775 0.99% 72.95% -4.38%

Dhaniya 20-Apr-18 5492 5502 5530 5331 5371 -2.20% 493.12% 702.83%

Cottonseed Oil
20-Apr-18 1482.00 1477.00 1477.00 1420.00 1440.00 -2.83% -90.50% -87.42%
Cake

Guargum5 20-Apr-18 9027 9035 9325 8905 9120 1.03% 13.08% -2.47%

Guarseed10 20-Apr-18 4257.00 4255.00 4350.00 4193.00 4278.00 0.49% 48.43% -7.37%

Jeera 20-Apr-18 14995 14890 14940 14515 14595 -2.67% -80.16% -29.00%

Kapas 30-Apr-18 961.50 956.50 958.00 916.00 918.00 -4.52% -20.76% -1.44%

RMseed 20-Apr-18 4239 4205 4205 4103 4159 -1.89% -48.79% 23.81%

Ref Soya Oil 20-Apr-18 793.30 791.00 792.95 777.50 788.90 -0.55% -16.76% 20.79%

Soyabean 20-Apr-18 3822 3791 3824 3714 3796 -0.68% -64.26% -11.57%

Turmeric 20-Apr-18 6840 6896 6964 6666 6924 1.23% -35.75% -0.92%

Mentha Oil 28-Mar-18 1214.90 1208.10 1237.00 1146.80 1206.70 -0.67% 11.79% 11.11%

Currency Market Wrap-Up


Previous Change in
Currency Pair Contract Open High Low Close
Close Price (in%)
USDINR 26-Mar-18 63.3750 65.1775 65.1825 64.8650 65.0200 2.60%

GBPINR 26-Mar-18 89.9150 90.2125 91.1025 90.2000 90.7600 0.94%

JPYINR 26-Mar-18 61.2650 61.1800 61.5600 60.6200 61.5375 0.44%

EURINR 26-Mar-18 79.7675 80.5000 80.8525 79.9800 80.1650 0.50%


Continued…….
2 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018
Market Wrap-Up

International Market Wrap-up


Previous
Commodity Exchange Open High Low Close % Change in Price
Close
Aluminium LME 2120.50 2118.50 2126.25 2071.50 2087.00 -1.58%
Copper COMEX 3.12 3.12 3.17 3.08 3.11 -0.13%
Crude Oil NYMEX 62.04 62.10 62.54 60.11 62.24 0.32%
Gold COMEX 1324.00 1324.10 1330.50 1309.50 1314.20 -0.74%
Lead LME 2386.50 2384.50 2447.75 2311.75 2380.50 -0.25%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.73 2.73 2.81 2.66 2.70 -1.32%
Nickel LME 13820.00 13815.00 14027.50 13515.00 13595.00 -1.63%
Silver COMEX 16.54 16.57 16.57 16.19 16.34 -1.21%
Zinc LME 3294.25 3283.25 3304.50 3205.50 3255.25 -1.18%

3 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


Inventory Updates

LME Inventory
Closing In Tonnes Closing In Tonnes
Commodity % Change in Price
(As on 01 Jan 2017) (As on 01 Jan 2017)

Copper 319325 314875 1.41%

Nickel 325386 330888 -1.66%

Lead 130925 133650 -2.04%

Zinc 206350 205225 0.55%

Aluminium 1311900 1315500 -0.27%

Continued…….
4 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018
Inventory Updates

5 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


Market Next Week
Economic Events Calendar
Time Curreny Event Forecast Previous
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
15:00 GBP CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.50% -0.50%
15:00 GBP CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.80% 3.00%
15:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Feb) -0.90% 0.70%
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
15:00 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) 2.60% 2.50%
15:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.40% 4.40%
18:00 USD Current Account (Q4) -125.0B -100.6B
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.90% -0.032
19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (Feb) 5.40M 5.38M
20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories - 5.022M
23:30 USD FOMC Economic Projections - -
23:30 USD FOMC Statement - -
23:30 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.50%
Thursday, March 22, 2018
0:00 USD FOMC Press Conference
15:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.40% 0.10%
15:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 1.30% 1.50%
15:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.40% 0.10%
15:00 GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 1.50% 1.60%
17:30 GBP BoE MPC vote cut (Mar)
17:30 GBP BoE MPC vote hike (Mar) 0.00%
17:30 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 0.50% 0.005
18:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 225K 226K
19:15 USD Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 55.50 55.30
20:15 USD Services PMI (Mar) 55.80 55.90
Friday, March 23, 2018
18:00 USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.50% -0.30%
18:00 USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 1.60% -0.037
19:30 USD New Home Sales (Feb) 620K 593K
19:30 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 3.70% -7.80%

Currency Weekly Pivots


Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
USDINR 26-Mar-18 65.6500 65.3000 65.1500 65.0000 64.8000 64.7000 64.3500

GBPINR 26-Mar-18 92.5000 91.6000 91.2000 90.7000 90.3000 89.8000 88.9000

JPYINR 26-Mar-18 63.1500 62.2000 61.9000 61.2500 60.9500 60.3000 59.3500

EURINR 26-Mar-18 82.1000 81.2000 80.7000 80.3500 79.8500 79.5000 78.6000


Continued…….
6 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018
Market Next Week

MCX Weekly Pivots


Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Aluminium 30-Mar-18 141.95 138.70 136.80 135.45 133.55 132.20 128.95

Copper 30-Apr-18 475.75 463.45 456 451.15 443.7 438.85 426.55

Crude Oil 19-Apr-18 4315 4167 4116 4019 3968 3871 3723

Gold 5-Apr-18 31107 30706 30465 30305 30064 29904 29503

Lead 30-Mar-18 171.5 163.2 159.15 154.9 150.85 146.60 138.30

Natural Gas 26-Mar-18 195.85 186.55 180.8 177.25 171.5 167.95 158.65

Nickel 30-Mar-18 951 920 902 890 872 859 829

Silver 4-May-18 40345 39440 38899 38535 37994 37630 36725

Zinc 30-Mar-18 225.35 218.55 215.4 211.75 208.6 204.95 198.15

NCDEX Weekly Pivots


Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Castor Seed 20-Apr-18 4421 4321 4281 4221 4181 4121 4021

Chana 20-Apr-18 4085 3903 3839 3721 3657 3539 3357

Dhaniya 20-Apr-18 5809 5610 5490 5411 5291 5212 5013

Cottonseed Oil Cake 20-Apr-18 1560 1503 1471 1446 1414 1389 1332

Guargum5 20-Apr-18 9957 9537 9328 9117 8908 8697 8277

Guarseed10 20-Apr-18 4588 4431 4354 4274 4197 4117 3960

Jeera 20-Apr-18 15533 15108 14852 14683 14427 14258 13833

Kapas 30-Apr-18 1015 973 945 931 903 889 847

RMseed 20-Apr-18 4360 4258 4208 4156 4106 4054 3952

Ref Soya Oil 20-Apr-18 817 802 795 786 780 771 756

Soyabean 20-Apr-18 3998 3888 3842 3778 3732 3668 3558

Turmeric 20-Apr-18 7447 7149 7037 6851 6739 6553 6255

Mentha Oil 28-Mar-18 1377 1287 1247 1197 1157 1107 1016

7 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


MCX Fundamentals

BULLION

Gold prices held firm on Friday as tensions between the United Kingdom and Russia
and renewed U.S. political concerns offset worries about a possible U.S. rate hike
next week. Gold prices fell 0.7 percent in the previous session under pressure from
a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar rose versus a currency basket as traders awaiting
next week's Federal Reserve meeting eyed data that showed the number of Ameri-
cans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week.

BASE METALS

Copper prices fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened ahead of next week's Fed-
eral Open Market Committee meeting at which the U.S. central bank is expected to
raise interest rates for the first time this year. A stronger green back makes metals
more expensive for holders of other currencies and can weigh on prices.Three-
month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.1 percent at $6,914 a
tonne by 0210 GMT extending a 1 percent loss in the previous session. It is on
course for a 0.7 percent weekly drop.

ENERGY

Oil prices remained sideways on Friday after the International Energy Agency said
global crude demand would accelerate this year but warned supply is growing at a
faster pace. NYMEX crude for April delivery was up 5 cents or 0.1 percent at
$61.24 a barrel at 0048 GMT after settling up 23 cents on Thursday.

Natural gas futures fell nearly two percent in American trade away from February
5 highs for the third session as the dollar index rose for the second straight session
from one-week lows .

8 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


NCDEX Fundamentals

SPICES

Rising arrivals of new crop and an overall high crop estimate have limited the
up trend. Due to high prevailing rates last year more sowing was done for this
crop. Good rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan further boosted productivity as-
pects and traders estimate the crop to be between 65-75 lakh bags. Jeer acre-
age in Gujarat is up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 15-Jan-18. Acreage was
2.88 lakh ha at that same time.
Moderate firmness returned for Turmeric after the recent fall. However prices
faced strong resistance near the psychological 7000 mark.

OIL & OILSEEDS


Mentha Oil found some support after the recent fall in prices though overall
sentiments remained slight weak for now. Lack of strong demand amidst
reports of higher sowing kept up trend limited. High prices seen last week
have ensured better sowing this year.
Soya oil, after initial dips posted moderate recovery later. Strength in palm
oil continued supporting the domestic soya oil market. As per sources India
palm oil imports have risen in February due to improving demand before
the summer season starts. Reports state that imports in the world biggest
buyer I.e. India has jumped by nearly 8 percent to 795,000 metric tons from
a year earlier.
GUAR COMPLEX

Prices failed to hold onto the higher levels for Guar as it traded with high
volatility. Expected pick up in export demand in coming weeks at these lower
levels could support prices however as prices found some support near psy-
chological 9000 mark. Lack of strong export demand with falling crude oil
prices amidst reports of higher stocks had kept pressure on prices. Reports of
higher carry forward stock too kept up trend limited.

OTHERS

Spot buying improved during later hours hence futures posted some recov-
ery. For the current week April RM seed might trade in the price band of
4105-4225, unless new season supplies start intensifying.

Viewing technically NCDEX Apr soy bean has a strong support region around
3550-3600 for the current month and expect the downside to be capped
unless the 3500 support gets breached on a closing basis. Bullish tone in soy
meal shall continue helping prices to bounce from support levels moving for-
ward.

9 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


Calls of the Week (MCX)

ZINC

Last week Zinc Mar Futures started the week on negative note and after that it witnessed sideways movement for the
most part of the week. It made a low of 208.10 during the week and closed at 212.80 with the marginal loss of 1% on
weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect upside movement in it as sustaining above trend line
breakout with positive RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 212.80 then it can test the level of 215 during the
week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 211.50.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

PERTICULAR DETAILS

Action BUY

Entry Range ABOVE 212.80

Target 215.00

SL 211.50

SILVER
Last week Zinc Mar Futures started the week on negative note and after that traded with negative sentiment for the
most part of the week. It made a low of 38171 during the week and closed at 38358 with the marginal loss of 1% on
weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect downside movement in it as sustaining below trend line
breakout with negative RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 38150 then it can test the level of 37700 during the
week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 38400.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

PERTICULAR DETAILS

Action SELL

Entry Range BELOW 38150

Target 37700

SL 38400

10 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


Calls of the Week (NCDEX)
COCODAKL

Last week COCUDAKL Mar Futures started the week on negative note and after that it witnessed sideways movement
for the most part of the week. It made a low of 1420 during the week and closed at 1440 with the marginal loss of 2.8%
on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect downside movement in it as sustaining below support
level with negative RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 1420 then it can test the level of 1290 during the week.
One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 1490

WEEKLY STRATEGY

PERTICULAR DETAILS

Action Sell

Entry Range Below 1420

Target 1290

SL 1490

CASTORSEED

NCDEX Castor Seed Apr future continued to trade in the range of 4270-4170 for the fourth consecutive trading week.
Price made the low of 4160 during the week and the high of 4260 and settled at 4242. Market closed flat during the
week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of long positions. We can expect market can break its
resistance level of 4270 on this week.

WEEKLY STRATEGY

PERTICULAR DETAILS

Action BUY

Entry Range ABOVE 4270

Target 4410

SL 4195

11 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


Calls of the Week (FOREX)
USDINR

Last week USDINR Mar Futures started the week on negative note and after that it witnessed sideways movement for
the most part of the week. It made a low of 64.8650 during the week and closed at 65.0200 with the marginal loss of
0.42% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect upside movement in it as sustaining above
trend line breakout with positive RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 65.1400 then it can test the level of 65.6375
during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 64.7975

WEEKLY STRATEGY

PERTICULAR DETAILS

Action BUY

Entry Range ABOVE 65.1400

Target 65.6375

SL 64.7975

EURINR

Last week EURINR Mar Futures started the week on negative note and after that it witnessed choppy movement for
the most part of the week. It made a low of 79.9800 during the week and closed at 80.1650 with the marginal loss of
0.23% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can further expect downside movement in it as sustaining below
trend line breakout with negative divergence in RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 79.8600 then it can test the
level of 79.2625 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 80.2900

WEEKLY STRATEGY

PERTICULAR DETAILS

Action SELL

Entry Range BELOW 79.8600

Target 79.2625

SL 80.2900

12 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 19/03/2018


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based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended
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सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कंऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकंऩनी के खखराप कोई भुकदभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है ।

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personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
or views contained in this research report.
रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड द्वाया ननमुवत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी ववचाय कंऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को
दशााता है औय कंऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबनू तमां औय ऺनतऩनू ता (भआ
ु वजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सझ
ु ावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफंधधत नहीं होगा।

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ):


(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनस
ु ंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कंऩनी भें कोई ववत्तीम रुधच नहीं है औय न ही इस तयह की ववत्तीम टहत की
प्रकृनत है |
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,
(फ) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एक प्रनतशत मा उससे अधधक के वास्तववक / पामदे भंद
स्वालभत्व नहीं हैं |
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोधगमों को अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के प्रकाशन के सभम मा सावाजननक रूऩ से उऩक्स्थत होने के सभम कोई अन्म बौनतक संघषा नहीं है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण):


High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of
coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशव
े यों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कंऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है ।
ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩनू ता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |

DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ) :


(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कंऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है |
(b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
(ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के ववतयण की नतधथ से ऩूवा फायह भहीनों के दौयान ववषम कंऩनी अफ मा कबी बी ग्राहक नहीं यही है ।
(c ) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाकेट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटे ड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने ववषम कंऩनी के अधधकायी, ननदे शक मा कभाचायी के रूऩ भें कबी बी काभ

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