The next financial crisis Citings

THE STRATEGY
The point is to mitigate financial crises rather than try to prevent them. India must require banks to have even PROCESS
Sumantra Ghoshal
more capital than what Basel III norms call for and adopt other prudential measures, says Arun Duggal
WEDNESDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2010 *
A MAJOR danger of study-

F
OLLOWING the recent financial policy by banks. The RBI is already encou- ing the strategy process —
meltdown, the leaders of the raging this but should consider taking loan probably the most enticing sub-
Moment of truth in Kashmir Group of 20 economies asked
the Basel Committee on Bank-
loss provisions to 100% (from 70%) level
in the next three years. This provision could
ject in the management curri-
culum, and at the pinnacle of
Not AFSPA, Political Effort Needed ing Supervision to come up with new
rules needed to prevent another financial
be relaxed during the downturn to revive
the economy quickly.
organisational processes — is
that students and professors can

T HE choice in Kashmir is between a political initiative

to transcend the current security-centred discourse
and persisting with yet more forceful security. The very
fact that the Centre put lifting or diluting the Armed
Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) on the table is proof of
acknowledgement that Kashmir calls for a paradigm shift
in policy. The Centre should not permit that realisation
and intent to be subverted, whether by the violence in
Kashmir or by proponents of the strong-arm strategy
within the government and the ruling dispensation. This
is the key challenge before the country’s political leader-
ship: to initiate and sustain a real and wide-ranging politi-
cal engagement, even if it is unlikely to find an immediate
resonance in Kashmir. The Centre should ideally have ini-
tiated efforts to discuss the AFSPA much earlier, which
could have averted a number of deaths and also possibly
prevented the crisis from reaching the point it has. In-
stead, the rupture between the sentiments and political
reality on the ground and New Delhi’s overtly cautious
fumbling for an adequate response now has only widen-
ed. Yet, there is no alternative except dealing with the po-
litical challenges facing the state in Kashmir. And after the
inconclusive Cabinet Committee on Security meeting on
Monday, New Delhi must now use the scheduled all-par-
ty meeting to hammer out a consensus on some bold and
decisive moves that can begin to tackle the severe crisis.
Measures like diluting the Act or a removal from some
districts will not yield the requisite effect among the peo-
ple. If at all the Centre does decide on either, or both, it
must be accompanied by a definite timeframe for a full
revocation of the Act, along with measures like releasing
some prisoners — such as some of the hundreds of young-
sters detained during the current protests — as well as ini-
tiating a wider dialogue with all sections, the separatist
camps included. Over two decades of a security paradigm-
based massive counter-insurgency effort has yielded a sit-
uation where the Valley seems further away than ever. A
real, wide-ranging political effort has been missing. It is
time to give that a chance.
crisis in future. I am afraid this is an impos-
sible undertaking. It is certain that there
will be financial crises in future, though
when and how are completely uncertain.
The Basel Committee’s agreement last
weekend on the new capital require-
ments (Basel III) will definitely strength-
en the global banking system so that the
impact of the next financial crisis —
when, and not if, it happens — does not
cripple the global economic system as the
most recent one has.
It is also nearly certain that in a few years’
time, there will be another economic boom
and many of the lessons of the recent finan-
cial crises will largely be forgotten. Greed
overtakes fear. Bankers will come up with
new ways and complex instruments to cir-
cumvent the new Basel III rules. Irrational ex-
uberance of the markets will be justified by
the argument that we have entered a new era
of growth and prosperity and the old eco-
nomic principles are no longer relevant.
These ‘good times’ will carry in them the
seeds of the next economic downturn. There
are signs of this already. No sooner was the ink
dry on President Obama’s signature on
Dodd-Frank Act (Wall Street Reform and
Consumer Protection Act) than fierce lobby-
ing started to make the regulations under the
Act as mild as possible.
We in India came out relatively un-
scathed out of the recent financial crisis.
Hard to say whether we were lucky or
smart — probably both. However, let’s not
forget that we were also affected and
2007-08 was a challenging period. Much
of the impact was due to contagion, but
there were a few excesses in Indian econ-
omy, particularly in the property sector.
During the financial crisis, export industri-
es like textiles suffered, the flow of credit
dried up, stock market sank, property
stocks dropped to one-tenth of their val-
ue, the auto sector stalled, confidence in
the banking sector, particularly private
sector and foreign banks, was shaken, ec-
onomic growth slowed and unemploy-
ment rose. It is, therefore, important for us
also to take measures now to strengthen
our financial system to minimise the im-
pact of the next global financial crisis on
India’s real economy.
In this context, the recent book, This
Time is Different — Eight Centuries of Fi-
nancial Folly, is very instructive. In this
book, professors Carmen Reinhart and
Kenneth Rogoff have discussed financial
crises in 66 countries over the last eight
centuries. It presents a comprehensive
look at the varieties of crises — including
government defaults, banking panics
and inflationary spikes — from medieval
currency debasements to the recent sub-
prime meltdown.
Broadly speaking, the next financial crisis is
likely to be triggered by either an event risk or
economic mismanagement. Event risk could
be a big geopolitical crisis such as violent social
unrest in China, North Korea going berserk, oil
price spike to $250 per barrel, a major terrorist
attack that cripples the banking system or any
other such cataclysmic event. Economic mis-
management would include the usual sus-
pects: high budget deficits, excessive debt accu-
mulation, runaway property prices,
SALAM
overheated stock market, high inflation, etc.
Evenifacountryisfollowingprudenteconom-
ic policies, it could be hit by the contagion effect
of crises in a different, distant part of the world.
T O PREPARE for the next financial crisis,
India can take several precautionary
steps: First, further strengthen the banking
and financial system by capitalising it even
higher than the new Basel III requirements.
Ahybrid equity layer, which can be convert-
ed into equity at the RBI’s direction, should
be introduced.
Second, annual stress testing of all banks
on the lines of the tests recently conducted by
the Fed and European Central Bank. The rat-
ing agencies are well-equipped to conduct
these tests, but the basic parameters/scena-
rios should be uniform and specified by the
RBI every year.
Third, a more dynamic credit policy
framework by the RBI and more impor-
tantly, by individual banks, such that credit
is tightened quickly (and other measures
introduced swiftly) when there are signs of
excesses in any section of the economy.
Most importantly, if property or stock prices
are rising too fast.
Four, countercyclical provisioning
Five, encouraging long-term capital
flows such as FDI in plant & machinery,
venture capital, growth capital and discou-
raging short-term or hot money capital In-
flows. A further restriction on short-term
capital flows should be considered. This will
help reduce the contagion impact.
Six, a well-capitalised subsidiary struc-
ture for foreign banks and financial institu-
tions operating in India in such a way that if
the parent institution runs into trouble, the
Indian entity is not directly impacted.
Seven, we should enforce the Volker
Rule i.e., strict limits on bank’s proprietary
trading and alternate asset activities, even
though the rule got compromised in the
Dodd-Frank Act in the US.
Eight, a single consumer protection
agency should be created to cover all finan-
cial products from banks loans/deposits,
stocks and bonds, mutual funds, insurance,
etc. This agency should focus on: financial
literacy promotion, ensure that financial
products are appropriately designed and
marketed transparently to consumers with
different levels of risk capacity, and griev-
ance redressal. At present, these functions
are fragmented among different regulators
in India. The Dodd-Frank Act includes a ve-
ry good model for this.
Nine, executive compensation in the fi-
nancial sector should be moderated. The
RBI has already made a good start, but
more emphasis on compensation linked to
long-term performance is needed in all ar-
eas of financial services.
Finally, private sector should facilitate
creation of an independent and unofficial
economic stability think-tank composed of
experienced economists, bankers and aca-
demics that should monitor the Indian and
global economy to identify excesses, over-
heating, emerging risks, etc, and share its
independent views with the country’s eco-
nomic decision-makers.
(The author is chairman of Shriram Capital
and former CEO India, Bank of America)
become detached from the ba-
sics of the enterprise. The “Don't
bore me with the operating de-
tails; I'm here to tackle the really
big issues?” syndrome has been
the death of many strategy
courses (not to mention mana-
gerial practices!). Effective strat-
egy processes always come
down to specifics. For this rea-
son, cases are the most conve-
nient way to introduce practice
into the classroom, to cap a wide
variety of experiences, and to
involve students actively in
analysis and decision-making.
Cases are the pedagogical ap-
proach of choice when it comes
to studying strategy, but it is an
approach with potential pitfalls
and blind alleys. It is easy to lose
sight of the fact that cases are se-
lective narratives. In this re-
spect, short and tightly focused
cases can be better than long
and highly detailed cases: They
are less likely to mislead one in-
to seeing the narrative as recre-
ation of reality, as opposed to
representation of reality, and a
partial one at that.
Though cases are partial rep-
resentation of reality, they can
be revealing if used wisely. Most
cases pose a dilemma or a prob-
lem. They irresistibly draw us
toward prescription. An invita-
tion to pronounce is appealing:
how many can resist being the
CEO of IBM or Microsoft for a
day? However, this is false em-
powerment. It is not only based
on incomplete information, it
also lacks the pressure and nu-
ance that are indispensable to
decision-making.

Sense(x) and sensibility C H AT R O O M

View Surge in Sensex With Caution
T
HE 138.63-point surge in the BSE Sensex on Tuesday
following a dramatic 409-point runup on Monday
deserves a cautious cheer. It reflects a vote of confidence
by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who pumped in
.̀ 2,500 crore on Monday, taking the total FII inflow to
close to $14 billion in 2010. However, that celebration
must be tempered with caution. Portfolio flows are fickle
by nature and chase yields across the globe. The resultant
volatility in capital flows poses a serious policy challenge.
The market solution, freeing exchange rates to reflect the
shifts in demand and supply of dollars, is not an option in a
poor country like ours where thin forex markets and the
resultant see-sawing of exchange rates in response to cap-
ital flows have serious repercussions on the real economy,
including, vitally, on employment. Intervention by the
RBI in the forex market to keep exchange rate fluctu-
ations within manageable bounds brings with it another
set of problems: excess domestic liquidity which could be-
come the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back for the
aam aadmi at a time when inflation is already high. If the
excess liquidity is mopped up, it could hike interest rates.
Overall, excess inflows would impose an additional cost
on an exchequer already bearing a huge fiscal deficit.
FIIs are attracted to India by our strong growth, driven
by abundant global liquidity riding on loose monetary
policy in the US. While there is every reason to expect that
our growth momentum will be sustained in the medium
term, there is no such certainty about how long US inter-
est rates will be kept at near-zero levels. More important,
while the levers to stimulate growth in an economy with a
large domestic market are largely within our control, the
situation is quite different when it comes to global liquidi-
ty. Hence, any reversal in the US monetary policy — un-
likely though it is in the short-term, given the anaemic
state of US recovery — will affect portfolio flows with con-
sequences that go far beyond a fall in the Sensex. If the
surge continues, and domestic asset prices and liquidity
bloat in an unhealthy fashion, the government may have
to move to take remedial steps. It would have to seriously
consider an option that it has so far eschewed: some form
of capital controls. It might help, of course, that even the
IMF now considers such controls kosher.
A cigarette a day
To Blow Miners’ Cares Away!
Vale of terror civil society across Kashmir.
Needless to say, this directly
■PEOPLE’S Union for violates Article 4(b) of Protocol
Democratic Rights (PUDR) Additional II, 1977 (relating to
strongly condemns Monday’s protection of victims of
bloodbath in which 17 persons non-international armed
were shot dead by Indian conflicts) of the Geneva
security forces and 131 injured Convention (12 August 1949),
in different parts of the Valley. which prohibits collective
The fact that no less than 89 punishment.
persons have died and 1,600 are The argument about
injured (many grievously) since demoralisation of the security
June 11 this year, confirms the personnel has been given
brutality of the Indian state, premium. As the Indian state
which continues to hurt, kill and refuses to withdraw AFSPA and
maim the people of Kashmir. A refuses to recognise that what
form of ‘collective punishment’ Kashmir is witnessing is not
is being meted out to the entire another phase of militancy but
people’s anger and agitation over
non-fulfilment of their
BLINKERS OFF long-standing and eminently
democratic demand for right of
SALAM self-determination.
Thus, all that the Indian State
is doing is to carry on with its
policy of military suppression by
labelling all protests as
“agitational terrorism”. In fact,
CM Omar Abdullah’s handling
of the present crisis is
symptomatic of a larger picture
of a lack of trust, legitimacy and
moral courage that the Indian
state and its electoral power
represent in Kashmir.
The question is: will the
Indian state ever learn?
ASISH GUPTA & MOUSHUMI BASU
SECRETARIES, PUDR
NEW DELHI, SEPTEMBER 14
Letters to the editor may be addressed to
editet@timesgroup.com
Oliver Twist and match-fixing
T HE global entertainment and media
industry is the fastest growing busi-
ness in the world, projected in a Price-
waterhouseCooper report to touch $2 tril-
GU EST COLU M N
RAGHU KRISHNAN
lion by 2011. International sporting events
are a key component of televised entertain-
ment. The global sports business industry
was valued at over $410 billion by Plunkett
Research in 2009. After football, cricket is the
world's most avidly watched sport, courtesy
‘Technomic engine gaining traction’
A ART de Geus, CEO of Synopsys — us in a strong technology position,” he said. So,
ET
a leader in electronic design automation despitemarketchallenges,Synopsys’CEOsays
(EDA) space — has seen several eco- they have been able to focus on near-term
nomic ups and downs the last two-and-a-half growth efforts and the overall strategy remains
decades he has been in business. This time unchanged. One, maintain the technology
around, he is optimistic that the world economy momentum, increase efficiency and expand
will ride out this recession too and that chip firms core EDA leadership. Two, broaden core EDA
will play a major role. A techie, who has lifted capabilities. Three, expand beyond core EDA
Synopsys from a startup to a top-drawer technolo- intoemergingIPandsystemsspace.
gy firm, de Geus reckons it is neither technology Apart from higher sectoral run-rate, growth
nor economics but a combo of the two — called rates in emerging economies show there are
technomics — that is shaping future trends. strongsignsofrecovery,deGeusfeels.“Though
the industry remains optimistic about the fu-
“The recession had hit the industry hard. INTERACTIVE ture, the expectation is that there is still way to
But as companies start refilling inventories, go before unemployment levels start to reduce
the semiconductor market is recovering faster
AART DE GEUS significantly,” he says, again peppering the op-
than expected. Starting at about 17% in 1994, ductor executives are reassessing every part of timismwithsomecaution.
the growth rate of the industry has been grad- their business and moving resources to the India has been a chip design hotspot and, of
ually — and for the most part, fairly steadily — most value-added functions and projects. Syn- late, there are signs of a nascent market sprout-
decreasing. Today, it hovers around a modest opsysishelpingcustomers,bothintermsofcost ing.“Overthepast15years,it(R&Dcentreofan
5-6%. But given the recession, it is still sub- and productivity focus, as well as with the need MNC silicon major) has gone through several
stantially better than the recent GDP growth to accelerate innovation. But we too face chal- phases. The first was cost-driven. Then, teams
rates of most countries. In fact, it is likely that lengeslikecautiousbuyers,continuedcustom- here became more competent and started do-
semiconductors will be central to driving the er consolidation, huge competitive pressures ing sophisticated chips. Now, I think it is the be-
recovery of many regions,” he says. andcoreEDAbudgetsthatarenotgrowing.” ginning of a new creative phase, led by a devel-
According to him, since the fourth quarter But Synopsys’ numbers lend credence to de oping indigenous market. Whenever we have
of 2008, when the recession was at its worst, Geus’ positive thrust. For the second quarter, this combination of competence and consum-
most semiconductor companies have been re- the firms’ revenues were $338 million, at a er, you get creativity. Local feedback groups be-
porting better results, providing further evid- non-Gaap earnings per share of $0.41, and it comethedriversforcompanies.”
ence that economies are beginning to recover. claims to have met all its target. “We carefully Twenty years ago, the factors influencing
“Memory foundries have recovered strongly. managed expenses and are on track to meet growth of the semiconductor industry were
With little investment in new equipment in our operating margin target of 24% for the technological. Today, the economic dynamics
the last three years, they are using their capaci- year. And we’re heading towards meeting, or are of equal importance. And whereas system-
ties to the maximum. Most of our customers beating, our initial revenue, EPS and cash-flow on-a-chip was inconceivable just two decades
have logged strong results, are forecasting a objectivesfortheyear,”deGeussays. ago,itisnowatthecentreofthesemiconductor
strong six-month outlook and, in many cases, What are Synopsys’ plans to lead this grow- ‘technomic engine’, a way of thinking that
reporting capacity shortages,” he says. th?“Weleadtheindustryinadvancedesignsall brings together technology and economics.
But probe him a little deeper and he hedges the way below 28-nanometre chips. And our Technomics, to him, refers to the remarkable
his optimism, “While most firms are ramping product portfolio can handle the most difficult increasesinbothscaleandsystemiccomplexity
up, they remain cautious. There is focus on challenges. The interest in systems solution is acrossbothtechnologyandeconomics.
cost throughout the supply chain. Semicon- rapidlygrowingandourresearchenginekeeps CHIRANJOYSEN
The father
when games have been lost by a few runs.
That 19th-century novelist Charles Dick-
ens had a far better understanding of human
nature than some of the apologists for Aam-
of fears
I
er/Asif. In Dickens' Oliver Twist, Fagin N HAUNTING retrospect, acteristic of the human condi-
recruited urchins like the Artful Dodger to when the time came for his tion. This was also Buddhism’s
pick pockets before grooming them into
adult burglars and murderers like Bill Sykes.
only parent’s demise, the
scribe found himself functioning
‘truth of impermanence’.
Paradoxically, our survival in-
For those who think that murder and
match-fixing are incompatible in real life,
like an automaton. There was
the heartbreaking business of
stinct itself operates from this pri-
mal truth, the therapists Richard

T HERE are two ways of reacting to the news that ciga-

rettes will be dropped to 33 miners trapped 700 m un-
derground since August 5 following a cave-in in the San
Jose copper and gold mine in the Atacama desert of Chile.
While it will take a few months to dig a 0.6-m-wide tunnel
through 670 m of solid rock so as to lower a cage and lift
the miners out one by one, those who are against all addic-
tions could say that care should be taken to ensure the
miners return safe after kicking the smoking and drinking
habit. However, with the miners asking for cigarettes and
psychologists talking about the possibility of anxiety and
depression setting in at this stage, officials have decided to
supply a cigarette a day to each miner. A doctor has stated
that smoking in moderation need not pose a problem.
Smoking as a stress-buster has been depicted in the
1961 Hindi movie Hum Dono where the debonair Dev
Anand plays the role of a WWII soldier who sings, Mein
zindagi ka saath nibhata chala gaya/Har fikr ko dhuen mein
udata chala gaya, the message being one of how to move
along with life while blowing away all cares into smoke!
The same song played back on any Indian TV channel to-
day would carry a statutory warning that smoking is inju-
rious to health. It is unlikely that any such chirpy song or
statutory warning will figure in the movie titled The 33
which Chilean director Rodrigo Ortuzar plans to shoot
once the miners are rescued. In real life, the miners could
be pardoned for feeling that it's not just smoking and
drinking but mining which is dangerous! The Motorcycle
Diaries tells us that it was the workers' plight in the Chu-
quicamata copper mine of the Atacama desert which in-
spired a young medical student called Che Guevara to
think in terms of a revolution, way back in 1952.
South Asia where a quarter of the global pop-
ulation lives. India accounts for roughly 70%
of cricket’s global revenues. If football can
pre-empt attempts at match-fixing, there is
no reason why cricket can't do so. Unfortu-
nately, the sport has periodically been cloud-
ed by match-fixing controversies. Cricket's
tradition of being a gentleman's game has it-
self come in the way of the game being run
professionally. In international football,
where individual clubs form the basic struc-
ture of the sport with many clubs run by cor-
porates, the professionalism at that level has
rubbed off on associations running the na-
tional teams. However, in cricket, the post of
not just the president but also secretary of the
national association is an honorary one and
the concept of a full-time professional CEO is
largely unknown. Cricket's administrators
seem invariably surprised when a crisis
erupts, like the latest one on match-fixing.
Cricket is also structured in such a way
(into innings and overs of six balls each) that
it is simpler for fixers to manipulate what
happens without being suspected of match-
fixing. For instance, during last month's ODI
at Dambulla, when Lankan off-spinner
Randiv deliberately bowled a no-ball so that
India won with Sehwag stranded on 99, it
was assumed that this was just gamesman-
ship and not spot-fixing, even though a lot of
betting takes place on whether the last ball of
an ODI is hit for a boundary or whether a
player nearing his century will reach the
mark. Even when spot-fixing is indicated
(like on August 26 when Pakistani bowlers
Aamer and Asif bowled no-balls on the first
ball of the third over and the last ball of the
tenth over of the Lord's Test a day after the
● Cricket is structured in such a way that
fixers can manipulate what happens
without being suspected of match-fixing
● In Oliver Twist, Fagin recruited urchins to
pick pockets before grooming them into
burglars and murderers like Bill Sykes
● Splitting hair between spot-fixing and
match-fixing will lead to ignoring the
threat facing international cricket
England-based Pakistan businessman Maz-
har Majeed had told two News of the Worldre-
porters masquerading as members of a sha-
dy betting syndicate that this would happ-
en), there are cricketing legends like Imran
Khan who say that this is not as serious as
match-fixing where teams deliberately lose.
The flaw in this argument is that it as-
sumes that there are two kinds of fixers —
those who induce cricketers to bowl no-
balls, and those who persuade teams to
lose matches. Majeed himself was caught
on tape stating that the no-ball demon-
stration he had organised was to prove
that he could arrange for even games in
the subsequent ODI series to be lost. Pakis-
tan, he claimed, had deliberately lost the
Sydney Test in January this year from a po-
sition of strength and had enabled a be-
tting syndicate to walk away with
£830,000! Yet, apologists split hairs be-
tween spot-fixing and match-fixing even
we only have to remember how, just a dec-
ade ago, South African captain Hansie
Cronje admitted that the match-fixers had
speaking calmly and clearly
without a quaver; of invoking
the Goddess of Illumination just
got him to do their bidding by initially offer- once and that too by name rather
ing money and then threatening him. When than by sacred syllables. For the
Pakistan coach Bob Woolmer was found scribe did not want it to sound
dead in a hotel room in the West Indies a day like goodbye or
after his team had been shocked by Ireland Godspeed.
in the 2007 World Cup, there were initially So he chose to
rumours that he had been killed while trying reassure with ges-
to prevent match-fixers from controlling the ture and tone. But
team. Sharjah was discredited as a cricketing inwardly he felt
venue because of the presence at the ODIs of wretched. Thus,
the D-gang founder Dawood Ibrahim, im- the son became the
plicated in the 1993 Mumbai blasts. In the father of Man. Al-
wake of the latest no-ball controversy, there though all he
are again reports of Dawood controlling un- wanted to do was
COSMIC
derworld syndicates involved in multi-mil- to run away from
lion dollar betting rackets on ODIs. Pakis-
tan's former coach Greg Lawson has even
reality. But he
could not. Besides
UPLINK
stated that Aamer could have been pressur- they were trapped together in
ised by these syndicates and cited the in- the sterile embrace of medical
stance of a Pakistani selector telling him that technology.
he had been threatened that his daughter Then the healers in white and
would be kidnapped unless a certain player their acolytes in blue intervened
made the national team. to begin their resuscitation
Splitting hair between spot-fixing and dance. Thus the father’s last
match-fixing could amount to not recog- words turned out to be the son’s
nising the threat staring international name urgently called out twice
cricket in the face. The ICC and national along with “I’m feeling breath-
cricket boards should work together to up- less.” If he wanted action, he got
root the nexus between match-fixers, plenty. But it could not prevent
money launderers (Majeed has been ar- his departure to that undiscov-
rested for this offence also) and underworld ered country from whose bourn
gangs preying on the game. ICC president no traveller returns.
Sharad Pawar should use this occasion to Thus, the scribe came face to
demonstrate that cricket will remain a face with what Sigmund Freud
metaphor for fairplay despite all attempts called ‘our ultimate helpless-
by the Majeeds and the mafias to ruin it! ness’, which is the defining char-
and Bonney Schaub say in their
handbook for spiritual realists,
The End of Fear: Life is a won-
drous and strange experience in
which everything and everyone
you see, including yourself (and
your nonagenarian
parent), is subject to
change and loss at
every moment.
Shakespeare
summarises this pri-
meval insight in As
you like it: “And so,
from hour to hour,
we ripe and ripe,/
And then, from hour
to hour, we rot and
rot,/ And thereby
hangs a tale.” The
awareness of the worm wriggling
inside the golden apple lies at the
root of all our anxieties says psychi-
atrist Aaron Beck, the pioneering
founder of cognitive therapy.
“The monsters that come to take
children away in the night are sto-
rybook models of the truth that one
day you and I will be taken from
our present lives,” the Schaubs,
who are also the co-founders and
co-directors of The New York Psy-
chosynthesis Institute, add.
“And before we are taken, we
will witness it happening to others,
including those we love. Looking
at it in this light, we see that our
fears are not unreasonable at all.”
■ VITHAL C NADKARNI