Ahmed Emad Ahmed Khalil Sec:2

Seasonal Index (S
x Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
1 62 94 113 41
2 73 110 130 52
3 79 118 140 58
4 83 124 146 62
5 89 135 161 65
6 94 139 162 72

average 80 120 142 58.33333333

SI 0.799334 1.199000833 1.418817652 0.582847627
forc. 7 101.1823 151.7735221 179.5986678 73.77879545
forc. 8 107.2344 160.8516712 190.3411443 78.19178462
forc. 9 113.2865 169.9298204 201.0836208 82.6047738
forc. 10 119.3386 179.0079695 211.8260973 87.01776298

Average = 3.5

at year 7 forcast= 506.3333333

8 536.6190476
9 566.9047619
10 597.1904762

Trend for each Qua

Q. #1
x sum x-x' y-y' (x-x')(y-y')
1 62 -2.5 -18 45
2 73 -1.5 -7 10.5
3 79 -0.5 -1 0.5
4 83 0.5 3 1.5
5 89 1.5 9 13.5
6 94 2.5 14 35
∑ 106
Average = 3.5 80
 m=6.05714285714286
b=58.8

at year 7 forcast= 101.2

8 107.2571429
9 113.3142857
10 119.3714286

Q. #3
x sum x-x' y-y' (x-x')(y-y')
1 113 -2.5 33 -82.5
2 130 -1.5 50 -75
3 140 -0.5 60 -30
4 146 0.5 66 33
5 161 1.5 81 121.5
6 162 2.5 82 205
∑ 172
Average = 3.5 142

m= 9.828571429
b= 107.6

at year 7 forcast= 176.4

8 186.2285714
9 196.0571429
10 205.8857143
Ahmed Emad Ahmed Khalil Sec:2

Seasonal Index (SI)

sum x-x' y-y' (x-x')(y-y') (x-x)^2
310 -2.5 -90.3333 225.8333 6.25
365 -1.5 -35.3333 53 2.25
395 -0.5 -5.33333 2.666667 0.25
415 0.5 14.66667 7.333333 0.25
450 1.5 49.66667 74.5 2.25
467 2.5 66.66667 166.6667 6.25
∑ 530 17.5

100.0833333

506.3333333
536.6190476
566.9047619
597.1904762

400.3333333 m=30.2857142857143
b=294.333333333333

Trend for each Quarter

(x-x)^2 x sum x-x'

6.25 1 94 -2.5
2.25 2 110 -1.5
0.25 3 118 -0.5
0.25 4 124 0.5
2.25 5 135 1.5
6.25 6 139 2.5
17.5
Average = 3.5 120
714285714286

at year 7
8
9
10

(x-x)^2 x sum x-x'

6.25 1 41 -2.5
2.25 2 52 -1.5
0.25 3 58 -0.5
0.25 4 62 0.5
2.25 5 65 1.5
6.25 6 72 2.5
17.5
Average = 3.5 58.33333333

at year 7
8
9
10
Q. #2
y-y' (x-x')(y-y') (x-x)^2
14 -35 6.25
30 -45 2.25
38 -19 0.25
44 22 0.25
55 82.5 2.25
59 147.5 6.25
∑ 153 17.5
 m= 8.742857143
b= 89.4

forcast= 150.6
159.3428571
168.0857143
176.8285714

Q. #4
y-y' (x-x')(y-y') (x-x)^2
-39 97.5 6.25
-28 42 2.25
-22 11 0.25
-18 -9 0.25
-15 -22.5 2.25
-8 -20 6.25
∑ 99 17.5

m= 5.657142857
b= 38.53333333

forcast= 78.13333333
83.79047619
89.44761905
95.1047619