The Bet: Why T = 15

uMCCCS
31 March 2018

Abstract
In this paper, we’ll prove why T = 15 using purely mathematical
calculations.

1 Assumptions
The difference of t ’s between two consequent blocks is 10, as the total
hashrate stays constant.

2 Notations
SM = Selfish Miner

HM = Honest Miner

α = the ratio of SM’s hashrate and HM’s hashrate = 1/3

3 The Proof
t is a random variable. It’s either 10, 20, 30... We’ll be finding it’s expectation.
SM finds a block at t = 0. The next block will be found at t = 10 by
either the SM or the HM. If it was found by the HM, t will be recorded. If
it was found by SM, the process will continue.
After the block at t = 0 was found by the SM, the probabilities for values
of t of the next relayed block can be shown like this:

1
 2 
3
10
1
3
...
With a probability of 2/3, which is the hashrate of the HM, a honest
block will be found at t = 10 and relayed. This t value will be recorded and
be used while calculating the expectation of t. With a probability of 1/3, the
SM will keep this block and won’t relay it.
If SM keeps the block, this is what will happen after a block at t = 10
was found:
2 
3
20
1
3
...
Again, t will be recorded if 2/3. Plugging it in:
2 
3 
10 
2
1
3
20 
3 1
3
...
t = 10 if prob 23 . t = 20 if 13 · 23 . Furthermore, t = 30 if 13 · 31 · 23
If 32 + 23 · 31 + 23 · 31 · 13 + ... = 1 then we haven’t done a mistake, which
means, we’re on the right way!
We’ll find the expectation, the expected, average value, of a random vari-
able, t, using the formula. The reader can read more about it on Wikipedia.
It is
2 2 1 2 1 1
· 10 + · · 20 + · · · 30
3 3 3 3 3 3
which is ∞
X 2 1
(10 + 10k) · · k
k=0
3 3
It’s not trivial to calculate it. To keep the simplicity of the document, I’ll
skip the computation and directly continue from its value.
It’s value, according to WolframAlpha and Symbolab, which is the answer
to the bet is exactly:
= 15