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Devalued Dollar Impact
Devalued Dollar Impact
Devalued Dollar Impact
To answer this question, lets first calculate just how large are the
dollar holdings of foreign governments. From the CIA’s world
Factbook, below is a ranking of countries by reserves of foreign
exchange.
(amounts in billions)
Foreign
Ran Exchange
k Country Reserves
1 China $1,534
2 Japan $954
3 Russia $476
4 India $275
5 Taiwan $275
6 Korea, South $262
7 Brazil $180
8 Singapore $163
9 Hong Kong $153
10 Germany $136
11 France $116
12 Algeria $111
13 Malaysia $101
14 Italy $94
15 Thailand $87
16 Mexico $87
17 Libya $80
18 United Arab Emirates $77
19 Turkey $77
20 Switzerland $75
21 United States $71
22 Iran $69
23 Poland $66
24 Norway $61
25 United Kingdom $57
26 Indonesia $57
27 Nigeria $51
28 Argentina $46
29 Canada $41
30 Romania $40
Etc…
Total = $6,898
Excess reserves
As the dollar loses its reserves status, at least half of the world’s
$5,385 billion dollar reserves will be sold off and replaced with other
currencies (yuan, euro, khaleeji, gold, rand, etc…). The US, with its
$71 foreign reserves, will not be able to do anything to counteract this
mass exodus from the dollar. With outflows of this magnitude, the
dollar’s value will collapse to a fraction of where it is now.
1) The dollar’s value will plunge as investors see the writing on the
wall and jump ship.
2) US credit markets will collapse. As the dollar fall, a mass exodus
from credit market will begin. Investors sitting on toxic securities will
sell at firesale prices to escape the currency depreciation.
4) US interest rates will soar, despite (or because of) the fed's
efforts.
6) Some nations will see benefits from the dollar’s decline. These
countries include:
10) The price of gold and other precious metals will explode.
Thanks for another great article. I find your writing most interestning.
Highly appreciated.
So for the question. The high interest rate will come after the
hyperinflation, dont see how you could a hyperinflation with high
interest?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves
So while things are bad out there and getting worse, in real money
terms, we have more of it than most... By a lot!
What won't survive will be the global financial system. It's toast.
The imminent demise of the $US has been predicted for years, yet it
arises from the charred remains of the international monetary system
again and again. Of course, it loses purchasing power as it rises and
falls, but nonetheless, remains competitive with other currencies.
@dave
If the gold reserves of the US are still present you might be partially
right. In previous posts doubt was expressed - based on the gold
lending practice of the fed. Since no external audits of the remaining
gold are available no one knows for sure.
1) China is the largest producer of gold now, not South Africa so this
discussion of the Rand becoming a reserve currency is bunk.
It seems like with the high inflation, consumer debt will be wiped out.
Let's not criticize Eric for not giving time frames. There are too many
variables involved, and the old "black swan" events that pop up all too
frequently. If he made timed predictions, know-nothing critics would
be all over him if they didn't come true.
Dear Dave,
LOL... You got to be joking! If there is still that much gold left in Fort
Knox or whatever vault that it's being stored on U.S. soil then why is
there no mention of it by the U.S. Gov.? It's high time they need a
wild card now and it looks like it's nothing to do with their gold
reserves for a now let alone a long time... The only thing they do now
is push Geithner and Helicopter Ben's plan of expanding the balance
sheet and quantitative easing... They could easily open the vaults and
show the world to its foreign creditors that, "Here!! This is the gold!!"
This can shut them up as well as the World Bank, IMF and those who
sleep with them...
you all will be begging for a new world currency by the time "they"
get done with us. I suspect the euro will become the new world
currency only because of the power of the City of London, and the
elitist that have been planning control of the currency (and the world)
for many years.
Since the SDR is currently made up of USD, EUR, GBP, JPY it seems
like any move of this sort would be mostly bad for the euro since it
would sortof allow the USD and GBP to steal value from the EUR.
I really liked your post. I also heard about the SDR idea. I noticed that
the Financial Times recent series on "The Future of Capitalism" has
the same set of symbols next to each article (i.e., the symbols of the
Yen, Euro, Pound, and U.S. dollar). If you or anyone else have any
additional info. on SDRs I would be very interested.
Thanks,
Matt
I understand why the value of gold will soar. But gold is valued in
U.S. dollars, so what will happen to the value of gold in other
currencies when the U.S. dollar plunges against those currencies?
How is it that we expect the world to not learn from past mistakes?
We are here talking about going from one Fractional Reserve System
and paper currency to another as if the destruction of one Fractional
Reserve System and paper currency hasn't taught us the lesson of
storing our wealth in paper held in someone elses hands. Wouldn't
you think people would learn from storing their wealth in someone
elses hands or letting someone else watch their money for them?
Sometimes I don't blame people for being ignorant to what's really
going on and why it's happening. The media keeps feeding us false
information on why what is happening is happening. But even with all
this false information, I can't believe after people see their or any
other government print the currency to oblivion that they would have
any trust at all in storing their wealth in paper or in the hands of
another person(bank).
Are you trying to tell me that after the US dollar is printed to oblivion
that Americans will look to the next strongest "paper" currency to
store their wealth? That after their government let them down by
debasing the currency that they'll trust that the same won't happen
with another country's paper currency? Is this how short sighted
people are?
It still baffles me that any paper currency survived after events like
that in the Weimer Republic Germany or any other previous event of
hyperinflation. Why is it people never learned from past events of
hyperinflation? And the problem was not overprinting the money, the
base of the problem was debt, letting someone else hold and watch
your money for you. Trying to save the Fractional Reserve Banking
system. That's why we have hyperinflation. Default is not a good look
for banks. Default causes distrust in letting someone else hold and
watch your money for you so when ever you trust someone else with
your money and that money is paper expect them to print that paper in
excess in attempts to stop default. Printing destroys the system along
with the currency but defaults destroy the system much quicker. That's
why they'd much rather print than default. It all leads to the end of the
system but printing keeps the system alive longer than defaulting
does. It's all to save the system. The Fractional Reserve System. It
doesn't matter what form the money's in, as long as they can control
the supply. That's the whole idea behind Fractional Reserve Banking.
Am I the only one that feels that we are about to witness a dramatic
change in the global monetary system and that paper money will no
longer be used by any nation? That people across the world will stop
trusting these govt. promises? Is that too idealistic for people to
believe. Because I do believe money in the hands of the people
instead of the bankers will be better for the world. When people
become their own bank, it shows people are keeping an eye on their
store of wealth and when people do that they prosper. Is this too
idealistic for people to believe?
I just can't believe that people are going to move from one failed
Fractional Reserve System to another Fractional Reserve System as if
the same problem will not occur.
All this talk about what's going to be the next reserve currency as if
anyone but the free market has control over that. If the free market
were capable of being outlawed, it wouldn't be the free market.
The free market will dictate what the next world reserve currency will
be and it looks for sure to be gold and silver. Defaults destroy trust in
third party holdings(banks) and overprinting destroys trust in things
that are easy to produce(paper). And defaults can not be stopped if the
thing owed is hard to produce, which is why Fractional Reserve
Banking could not work with gold/silver as the currency. Therefore
after the paper currency is printed to oblivion and people loose trust in
storing their wealth in anything that's easy to produce(paper), that will
be the end of Fractional Reserve Banking. Even though it's not what
the bankers want, at least the FRB system ended allot later than if they
chose to default the first time they faced default instead of printing to
avoid default. People keep talking about that the government should
let the banks default, that that would save the currency but they don't
talk about how that will hurt the banking system. If the banks default
people will not trust banks with their money and people will be
hoarding their money. I do believe that is the best thing but at the
same time as long as the money is paper can you really trust it as a
good store of wealth? In an instant that store of wealth can be
destroyed with the printing press. On top of that if you're looking to
store your wealth in something that is rare and the supply isn't
increasing rappidly why choose a governments paper promise over
physical gold/silver? With physical gold/silver, it's a garauntee that
the money supply will not grow much because you know how hard it
is to produce and supply gold/silver but with paper even if a
government promises to not let the printing get out of hand, there is
always the chance that it will. And it can happen so easily because of
how easy it is to print paper. On top of that it's almost a garauntee the
government will print to save the banks from default because if the
banks default, no one will trust to store their wealth in banks and the
banking system which the government benefits from will fail.
This is what is happening and the credit crunch is causing this. The
worse the credit crunch gets, the more companies go out of business.
The more companies go out of business the more room and reason
there is for the remaining to raise prices. I believe we will reach very
small supply of companies and goods before the deleveraging is done
and because there will still be much deleveraging left, to cover
production/borrowing costs companies will have to raise prices very
high. This is what will cause the government to start printing larger
bills. It will be an attempt to stop the deleveraging so that
production/borrowing costs will decline so companies won't need to
raise prices. The debt is so large in order for the govt. to prevent
defaults, new larger bills will have to be made because $100 bills can
not be printed fast enough to stop defaults. So the streets will be paved
with Federal Reserve Notes in wheelbarrows just like Weimer and
Zimbabwe. this is NOT because they want to destroy the currency
BUT because they want to save the Fractional Reserve Banking
system. You hear it time and time again, we need to get the banks
lending again. That's all they are trying to do. Save the banking
system or at least milk it for as long as they can because they should
know destroying the easily produced currency(paper) leads people to
run to hard produced currencies(gold/silver) and I can't say this
enough, Fractional Reserve Banking can not work using currencies
that are hard to produce(gold/silver), otherwise defaults would not be
able to be prevented and the system ends quickly.
@Numonic
I understand your rage, but a short formulation would certainly help to
get your point across better.
Numonic:
I have recommened today this article and your blog to the members of
PUMAPac at
www.pumapac.org
IQ test
Step two: litter the planet with weapons, wars, miscellaneous armies,
focusing on hassles with more powerful adversaries, and churn out
more weapons than the next 14 producers combined.
Step three: Get everyone to fighting across the planet through covert
interference, but be sure to keep it out of your national media so that
your citizens are in the dark about where the money's gone.
Step four: Go deeply into debt to all nations, but especially to the
enemies your own public went broke and lost children to fight
Step five: neutralize the value of said debt to enemies, wiping out a
great deal of their capital base. Stiff 'em good.
Does this look like a people fit for survival? Darwin, are you out there
to call this one?
14) A resurgent more productive America with more real jobs will
begin to reverse 1) - 12)
March 23, 2009 7:33 PM
Anonymous said...
The Sephardim Jews, (or Sepharviam Jews) are not of Israelite blood;
they are not of the tribe of Yahudah although they were called
Yudeans, ‘Judeans’, as an inhabitant, i.e. person living in the land
originally occupied by the tribe of Yahudah of Israel). Their descent is
mixed from Edom/Esau Canaanite stock. The Sephardim Jews, like
the Ashkenazi Khazar Jews are not a Semitic people. The word
Sephardim is not a Hebrew word for Spain, although the name has
become ‘associated’ with Spain because many Sephardim Jews
organized in Spain.
the economic collapse will bring high unemployment, and social and
political unrest.This will give demagogues a chance to rise to power.
This will be followed by world war three.
wakeup man
AS GOOD AS GOLD!
I suspect China has studied the economic history of the West and has
decided not to buy into a controlled economic demolition and war
every fifty or sixty years since the South Sea bubble burst in the early
1700's.
If they back their currency with tangibles, very carefully join the
currencies now in the 'Special Drawing Rights' (SDR) basket with the
dollar, Euro, Pound and Yen ...