Demographic Trends

and Population Growth

Samuel Glaser, Kevin Rothermund,
James Walnoha, Emily Davis
Demographic Trends and Population Growth

Defined as…

● Demographics are the study of populations based on age, sex, ethnicity (and
other factors), to develop policy and conduct marketing research
● Population growth is determined by (Immigration + birth rate) - (emigration +
death rate), compared to a current populus
Articles

● As Japan Ages, So Does Its Workforce

○ https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21713863-elderly-keep-toiling-japan-ages-so-too
-does-its-workforce
● Fiscal consequences of an shrinking population
○ https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/japan-s-shrinking-population
○ https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1521.pdf
Case Studies: Japan

- The age of retirement is increasing

- The workforce has decreased by 2 million since the late 1990s and could
collapse to 42 million people by the mid-century.
- Large companies set a mandatory retirement age of 60 but smaller
companies allow people to keep working as long as they’re able
- Department store chain has introduced a performance based system for
employees ages 60-65
- However, many choose not to work because of the state pension that is
provided if they retire.
Fiscal Consequences

● Shrinking populations lead to changes in consumer needs

○ Businesses lose out on new customers
● Slow economic growth, if any
○ Can lead to projection errors if population changes are not considered
● Longer lifespans mean people must work longer
○ Longer reliance on social security with a low retirement age
● Public/government policies to increase fertility
○ Advertisement campaigns to increase fertility
What does this mean for Business

● Changes in consumer tastes that are based on the aging population

● Fall of the Yen
● High participation of women in the workforce has a strong correlation to low
fertility rates
● Possible reforms to state pensions to change labor participation
○ Currently at 60
Who Benefits

● Age-related expenditures in more developed economies are projected to

increase by nearly 8½ percentage points of GDP over 2015–2100
● Healthcare is projected to be the industry to benefit the most from the
increase in life expec
● Lower crime rates will result from an increase in the average age of a
population
Questions

Is allowing immigrants into Japan a solution to their declining fertility rates?

Should governments create incentives for people to have kids?

References

Reynolds, I. (2017, April 25). Japan's Shrinking Population. Retrieved March 21,
2018, from https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/japan-s-shrinking-population

Gonzales, C., S. Jain-Chandra, K. Kochnar, and M. Newiak. 2015. “Fair Play: More
Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation.” Staff Discussion Note
5/02, International Monetary Fund, Washington.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1502.pdf.