RELIABILITY

Ability of an item to perform the required function for a specific duration under stated
conditions.

Probability that the item will perform the required function for a specific duration under stated
conditions.

 It is a probability
 Fn of time
 Fn of stated condition
 Fn of definition of failure(failure before operation, during operation, failure to operate on
demand, failure to cease on demand)

PROBABILITY: Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.

 An experiment was conducted n times, event A occurred nA times.

Addition of probabilities:

1) Mutually exclusive events, P(A ∩ B)=0, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) [either A or B]

2) Mutually unexclusive events, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

Complementary events are two outcomes of an event that are the only two possible outcomes.
eg: coin, die(not comp).

Mutually exclusive event, are two or more outcomes of an event that cannot occur at the
same time.

Kolmogorov axioms:

 A probability space consists of three parts:

1. A sample space, which is the set of all possible outcomes.Ω

2. A set of events(Event space) , where each event is a set containing zero or
more outcomes.F
3. The assignment of probabilities to the events; that is, a function p from events to
probabilities.
 Sample space: the range of values of a random variable.

 1ST AXIOM: The probability of an event is a non-negative real number:

 2nd AXIOM: probability that at least one of the elementary events in the entire sample space will
occur is 1.
  3rd AXIOM: E1,E2,E3,…..-Mutually exclusive events

FAILURE DATA ANALYSIS

 Failure data are the backbone of reliability studies.
 Failure data has lot of uses: Reliability study, hazard evaluation, corrective measure,
design of new system or modification, life cycle cost studies, preventive maintenance etc.

Mean failure rate: Failure rate is the frequency with which an engineered system or
component fails, expressed in failures per unit of time. (λ). The failure rate of a system usually
depends on time.(failure rate in the 5th year will be more than that in the first year).

Mean time between failures (MTBF): it is the predicted elapsed time between
inherent failures of a system during operation. Total operating time/Total no. of failures. (used
for a population of components, equipments, systems. Failure- it must be out of service)(used
when the failure rate is a constant)

Mean time to failure (MTTF): it is the length of time a device or other product is expected to
last in operation. MTTF is used for non repairable products(repair is not an option), whereas
MTBF is used for repairable products.

For example, assume you tested 3 identical systems starting from time 0 until all of them failed.
The first system failed at 10 hours, the second failed at 12 hours and the third failed at 13 hours.
The MTTF is the average of the three failure times, which is 11.6667 hours

If these three failures are random samples from a population and the failure times of this
population follow a distribution with a probability density function , then the population
MTTF can be mathematically calculated by:
Probability density function(PDF,f(t))-
for a continuous random variable

P(a<x<b)=aʃbf(t)dt
BATH TUB CURVE:
HAZARD MODELS: By using hazard models, failure rate of other identical components
operating in identical conditions can be predicted.

1) Constant hazard model: This model assumes that hazard rate is constant which does not
significantly increase with component age. When a product is functioning during its useful
lifetime, constant-hazard model is precisely suitable.

Harard rate z(t)=λ (a constant)

Reliability of a constant-hazard model: R(t) = 1 - F(t) = exp (-λt)

Failure rate; f (t) = λ e–λt (differentiate F(t) )