National Opinion Poll

4 October 2007

Week 2
Introduction

The question for this poll was: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"
The three choices given in alphabetical order were:

• Kalonzo Musyoka

• Mwai Kibaki

• Raila Odinga

An extra open-ended question was asked (week 2):

• “What do you consider to be the single biggest failure/ single biggest success of the

Kibaki government?

The field work was conducted between 29 September and 2 October 2007 in 50 Electoral districts
which represent more than 85% of all registered voters

The results have a confidence level of 95% and margin of error of + - 2.5%
Sample distribution

Registered voters*
North
Total Nairobi Coast Eastern Eastern Central Rift Valley Western Nyanza
13,043,618 1,161,708 1,073,873 265,830 2,190,090 2,017,073 3,055,694 1,434,102 1,835,248
100% 10% 8% 2% 17% 15% 23% 11% 14%

Achieved sample
North
Total Nairobi Coast Eastern Eastern Central Rift Valley Western Nyanza
2041 210 169 46 339 310 469 220 278
100% 10% 8% 2% 17% 15% 23% 11% 14%

* Electoral Commission of Kenya (May 2007)

Preferred Candidate - Nationally
Q: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"
46%

41%

13%

1%

Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Undecided

n = 2041 All respondents

Preferred Candidate By Province
Q: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"

Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Undecided

94%
87%

72%

60% 59% 58%

53%
48%
39% 39% 38%
37%
30%
24%
14% 12%
10%
6% 4% 4%
1% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1%
1%

Nairobi (210) Coast (169) North Eastern Eastern (339) Central (310) Rift Valley Western (220) Nyanza (278)
(46) (469)

n = 2041 All respondents

Preferred Candidate By Electoral Districts
Q: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"
Kalonzo Mwai Raila
Musyoka Kibaki Odinga Undecided

Caveat: Interpret NAIROBI (210) 14% 37% 48% 1%

with caution any COAST PROVINCE
results based on a MOMBASA (67) 21% 25% 54% -
sample size less
than 30 KWALE (23) 4% 22% 74% -
KILIFI (31) 3% 48% 48% -
MALINDI (22) 5% 32% 64% -
TAITA (26) - 27% 73% -
NORTH EASTERN PROVINCE
GARISSA (12) - 33% 67% -
WAJIR (19) - 32% 68% -
MANDERA (15) 7% 53% 40% -
EASTERN
ISIOLO (24) - 88% 13% -
MERU CENTRAL (50) 8% 85% 8% -
MERU NORTH (38) 3% 92% 5% -
EMBU (30) 3% 97% - -
KITUI (40) 73% 19% 8% -
MWINGI (29) 100% - - -
MACHAKOS (80) 64% 20% 10% 6%
MAKUENI (48) 94% 5% 2% -

n = respondents in each district

Preferred Candidate By Electoral Districts
Q: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"
Kalonzo Mwai Raila
Musyoka Kibaki Odinga Undecided
CENTRAL PROVINCE
Caveat: Interpret
with caution any NYANDARUA (40) 5% 95% - -
results based on a NYERI (62) - 92% 6% 2%
sample size less
KIRINYAGA (39) - 97% 3% -
than 30
MARAGWA (39) - 100% - -
KIAMBU (72) - 99% 1% -
THIKA (58) 3% 84% 7% 5%
RIFT VALLEY PROVINCE
WEST POKOK (19) 5% 26% 68% -
TRANS NZOIA (55) 4% 29% 67% -
UASIN GISHU (45) 4% 31% 64% -
MARAKWET (17) - 35% 65% -
NANDI NORTH (27) 11% 7% 81% -
NANDI SOUTH (26) - 12% 88% -
n = respondents in LAIKIPIA (12) - 92% 8% -
each district
NAKURU (128) 4% 67% 29% -
NAROK (27) - 33% 67% -
KAJIADO (31) 10% 48% 42% -
KERICHO (41) 7% 22% 71% -
BURETI (14) - 21% 79% -
BOMET (27) - 4% 96% -
Preferred Candidate By Electoral Districts
Q: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"

Kalonzo Mwai Raila

Musyoka Kibaki Odinga Undecided
Caveat: Interpret
with caution any WESTERN PROVINCE
results based on a
KAKAMEGA (53) 8% 19% 74% -
sample size less
than 30 BUTERE/MUMIAS (43) 5% 21% 74% -

VIHIGA (44) - 5% 93% 2%

BUNGOMA (46) 2% 50% 48% -

BUSIA (25) 8% 20% 72% -

TESO (9) - 33% 67% -

NYANZA PROVINCE

SIAYA (38) - - 100% -

KISUMU (34) - - 100% -

NYANDO (28) - 4% 96% -

RACHUONYO (23) - - 100% -

MIGORI (38) - 3% 97% -

KISII CENTRAL (33) 3% 21% 76% -

GUCHA (43) 2% 35% 63% -

KISII NORTH (41) 5% 20% 76% -

n = respondents in each district

Preferred Candidate By Gender & Age
Q: "If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president?"

Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Undecided

52%
47% 48% 47% 47% 46%
43%44% 43%
40% 39%
39%
36%
34%

13% 13% 14% 13% 13% 13%

11%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Male (1060) Female (981) 18-24 yrs (428) 25-34 yrs (544) 35-44 yrs (464) 45-54 yrs (360) Above 55 yrs
(245)

n = 2041 All respondents