An Infotrak Harris service

October 4th 2007

An Infotrak Harris service
October 4th 2007
 Methodology

A Sample of 2400 respondents were interviewed.

Fieldwork timings,1st -3rd October 2007

To gauge perception swings after the PNU rally on 30th September

The Sampling frame was designed using PPS; Population

Proportionate to Size as is stipulated in the Population Census.
o The sample was defined by area,age,gender
o Sampling was carried out using the district as the key administrative
boundary.
o Every respondent who was 18 years and above given an equal
opportunity to participate on condition that they have a voters card or
intend to get one in the near future.

An Infotrak Harris service

October 4th 2007
 Methodology

Fieldwork was conducted using purposive random sampling
o This ensured that every person in the selected area had an equal chance
of being included in the survey.
o 25% of the interviews were back checked for quality control purposes
and data entered twice for validation

Data Analysis was done using SPSS 15.0(Minitab Version)

All necessary statistical tests were carried out twice;

o Once internal by the Infotrak team
o Second check done independently by reputable sampling & statistics
expert.

The Data has been verified at 95% degree of confidence.

o The margin of error was minimal at 0.05%

An Infotrak Harris service

October 4th 2007
 Regional split by age
100%

90%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45+
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%
33% 34% 34%
31% 32% 32% 32%
29% 29%
27% 28% 27% 28%
30% 26%
25%
23% 23% 22% 23%
22% 22%
18% 18% 19%
20% 17% 17% 17%
15%

10%

0%
Nairobi Coast Western Nyanza Central Eastern Rift Valley

An Infotrak Harris service

Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 Regional split by gender
100%

90%

80%
Male Female
70%

60%
52% 52% 52% 52% 52%
48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 50%
50% 50%
50%
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Nairobi Coast Western Nyanza Central Eastern Rift Valley
An Infotrak Harris service
Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 Are you likely to vote in the next general elections?

Yes No

No
1%

Yes
99%

An Infotrak Harris service

Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 Voting

30%
Voters card verified

No
2%Intending to register Registered voters

70%

Yes
98%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

An Infotrak Harris service
Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 If elections were held today, who would you
vote for as president?

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%
46%
50%
35%
40%

30%
15%
20%
4%
10%

0%
Raila Odinga Mwai Kibaki
An Infotrak Harris service
Kalonzo Musyoka Undecided
Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 Weekly voting trend
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

46% 46%
50%

40% 35% 34%

30%

20% 15% 16%

10% 4% 4%

w2 w1 w2 w1 w2 w1
0% w2 w1
Raila Odinga Mwai Kibaki Kalonzo Musyoka Undecided
An Infotrak Harris service
Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 If elections were held today, who would you vote for
as president? By gender

Male Female

48%
Undecided
52%

43%
Raila Odinga 57%

49%
Mwai Kibaki
50.30%

51%
Kalonzo Musyoka
49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
An Infotrak Harris service
Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 If elections were held today, who would you
vote for as president? by age group
100%

90%

80%

70%

60%
Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Undecided

50%

40%
32% 34%

30% 27%
24% 25% 24% 24%
23%
20% 21% 21%
18% 18% 17%
20% 15% 16% 16% 15%

10% 6%
4%

0%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 Above 55
An Infotrak Harris service
Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 If elections were held today, who would you vote for
as president? By Province
100%
Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga Undecided

90% 88%
85%
80%
80%

70%

60%
54% 54%
51% 52%

50%

40%
34% 35% 35%
32%

30%

20%
14%
11% 11% 12%
8%
10% 7%
4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6%
3% 3%
1% 1% 1%
0%
Nairobi Coast Eastern Central Rift Valley Western Nyanza

An Infotrak Harris service

Base 2400 October 4th 2007
 What do you consider to be the single biggest
failure of Kibaki’s government?

100%

90%

80% 75%

70% 66%

58%
60% 54%

50% 46%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Corruption Insecurity Unemployment Tribalism Selective
development

An Infotrak Harris service

Base 2400 October 4th 2007