National Weekly Opinion Survey.

Client:
Nation Media Group

Date: October 4, 2007.

Strategic Public Relations & Research; 4th Floor, Titan Centre, Chaka Road. P.O. Box 7201, 00100
Nairobi. Tel.: 2712208, Fax 2712209, e-mail: spr@africaonline.co.ke; info@strategicafrica.com
1.0.0. Introduction.

The Nation Media Group (NMG) contracted Strategic Public

Relations & Research Limited (SPRR) to conduct a national opinion
poll to assess the opinions of Kenyan voters on their voting
intentions. The survey, the second in a series of polls being
conducted for the group by SPRR over a ten week period covered
all the provinces of the country.

2.0.0. Methodology.

Survey Area National

Sample size 2,404
Sample distribution Proportionate to the registered
voters in each of the provinces.
The provinces formed the first
strata with the districts forming
the second strata.
Target Population Kenyans 18 years and above in
both rural and urban areas
Instrument Questionnaire administered face
to face at household level
Field Dates 29th September – October 1st 2007
Margin of Error -+ 1.79

2.1.0. Sample Distribution.

National Survey- Sample

2404
Registered Sample
Province voters Provincial % Allocation
Nairobi 1161708 8.9 215
Central 2017073 15.5 374
Coast 1083873 8.3 199
N.Eastern 265830 2.0 49
Eastern 2190090 16.8 401
R.Valley 3055694 23.4 567
Western 1434102 11.0 266
Nyanza 1835248 14.1 333
13043618 100 2404
Province % respondents interviewed
Nairobi 8.9
Central 15.6
Coast 8.3 3.0.0.
N. Eastern 2 FINDINGS
Eastern 16.7
R.Valley 23.6
Western 11.1
Nyanza 13.9

Location of Interview
Rural 63.1%
Urban 36.9%
Gender of respondents
Male 49.3
Female 50.7
Age Groups
18-24 28.6
25-39 19.7
30-34 13.6
35-39 10.1
40-44 8.2
45-49 7.8
50-54 4.2
55-59 4.6
60+ 2.9
Religion
Christian 83
Muslim 14
Budhist/Hindu .6
Traditional 1.2
No response 1.2
Level of education
No formal education 6.6
Primary school education 25
Secondary school education 39
Post secondary education 21.5
University education 7.5
Post graduate education .4

4.0.0. Registration to vote

All the respondents interviewed are registered voters.

5.0.0. If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president.

49.6% of Kenyans would vote in Raila Odinga as president if elections were held today.
President Kibaki comes in second with 39.6% and Kalonzo Musyoka is third with 10.8%
of the votes.

If elections were held today, who would you vote for as president

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga
Series1 10.8 39.6 49.6

5.0.1. Who would you vote for as President if elections were held today – Provincial
Analysis.

Raila Odinga leads in all but two provinces, Central and Eastern where he comes second
to Kibaki in the polls. Raila has most of his support in Nyanza where 85.6% of the voters
prefer him. Kibaki on the other hand draws most of his support from Central province
where he has 91.4% of the votes. Kalonzo’s support is mainly in Eastern Province with
37.4% of the support. He however comes second to Kibaki in Eastern.
 Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today- analysis by province

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Nairobi Central Coast N. Eastern Eastern R.Valley Western Nyanza
Kalonzo Musyoka 14 2.1 6.5 6.1 37.4 6.2 3.4 3.3
Mwai Kibaki 27.4 91.4 30.2 30.2 53.6 29.3 20.7 11.1
Raila Odinga 58.6 6.4 63.3 63.3 8.7 64.6 75.9 85.6
5.0.2. Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today – Analysis by
gender.
Who would you vote for - Analysis by gender

53

52

51

50

49

48

47

46

45

44
Kalonzo Musyoka Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga

Male 47.1 48.3 50.6

Female 52.9 51.7 49.4

5.0.3. Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today – Analysis by
education.

Who would you vote for - Analysis by level of education

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
No formal Prim ary s chool Pos t-s econdary Univers ity Post-graduate
education education education education education

Kalonzo Musyoka 14.6 10.6 10.3 10.8 44.4

Mwai Kibaki 44.3 42.8 37 37.8 44.4
Raila Odinga 41.1 46.6 52.7 51.2 11.1
5.0.4. Who would you vote for as president if elections were held today – Analysis by age.

Raila Odinga draws most of his support from the younger population especially those
between 18 -34. Those in the higher age group have preference for Kibaki.

Who would you vote for - Analysis by age group

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
18-24 25-39 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
Kalonzo Musyoka 12.4 10.8 9.5 10.7 7.1 10.7 14.9 8.2 11.4
Mwai Kibaki 38.1 36.9 38 42.6 41.9 37.4 49.5 40.9 55.7
Raila Odinga 49.3 52.3 52.5 46.7 51 51.9 35.6 50.9 32.9