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Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Public Health
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Public Health
Final Report
Background
Methods
In order to conduct this assessment, the MoPH/HPIC team developed clear
economic questions to be addressed, established a rigorous costing model using
a spreadsheet format, and developed questionnaires to interview key public and
private stakeholders in the Afghanistan specialty (IV fluids) pharmaceutical
market. The primary data collection effort was supplemented by several key
secondary sources (i.e. MoPH reports and the sub-contracted firm’s contract). In
order to conduct a thorough analysis, both economic and financial perspectives
were applied.
Results
Overall results indicate that the cost of the local production of IV fluids in
Afghanistan is estimated to be on average 20% less than the cost of importation
annually. Analyses indicate these estimates involve reduced transport costs into
Kabul. The estimated total cost of local production from the economic
perspective is just over 2 billion Afs or $42.2 million USD over 10 years. The total
estimated cost of local production from the financial perspective is 1.8 billion Afs
or $37.2 million USD over 10 years.
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Recommendations and Discussion
Based on the above economic evaluation, we recommend the Government of
Afghanistan take further steps towards the financing and local production of IV fluids
over the next 10 years. The analysis clearly highlights the reduced cost per 500ml IV
fluid unit under local production, relative to importation prices, particularly under the
financial perspective. Even if the local production was not to reach an estimated
production of 15,000,000 units by year 5, significant economies of scale are forecasted
over the period of analysis.
As for benefits, within this economic analysis there appears to be both estimated
benefits for possible profit for the producing organization, increased government
revenue, and the provision of steady employment to over 70 people.
Lastly, despite a seemingly clear economic roadmap for the local production of IV fluids
in Afghanistan, considerations must be given for establishing a broader regulatory
framework, a detailed and feasible business plan, and a strategy to attract and maintain
qualified personnel.
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1. Background
With the donated equipment made available, initial assessments suggested using the
existing national pharmaceutical manufacturing building for the production of the IV
fluids. However, after assessments by the engineering department of the Ministry of
Public Health (MoPH) and an Afghan Construction Company, it was found that the
current building was not suitable for IV fluid production. The primary reason for this
conclusion was the extremely poor condition of the building. As a solution, the MoPH
requested the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to fund the construction of a new building for
the production of IV fluids with the newly purchased machinery from China. However
before proceeding, the MoF has asked for an evaluation of the potential costs and
benefits of investing in the national production of IV fluids in Afghanistan relative to
importation.
As of the end of 2008, the MoPH had received nine containers out of a total of 23
containers of machinery from HCSM. The containers, with the machinery still inside, are
currently in storage. HCSM will import the remaining machinery once the MoF agrees to
pay the remaining funds as per the contract. Hence, the production of IV fluids project
has been stalled since 2008.
In order to respond to the MoF, the MoPH sought assistance from Health Partners
International of Canada (HPIC) to identify a lead consultant to work collaboratively with
the MoPH to conduct an economic evaluation to examine in detail the associated costs
and benefits of producing IV fluids in Afghanistan, relative to the current model of
importation.
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technical support of HPIC began to undertake this economic study in July 2012. In order
to develop the appropriate methodology, key economic questions were developed to
guide the investigation and analysis. These include a primary economic question,
followed by key economic and policy sub-questions as follows.
c. What is the estimated annual market demand for IV fluids in Afghanistan in terms of
number of 500ml units for the next 5-10 years?
d. What is the estimated cost of local production relative to estimated average import
prices?
3. Methodology
In order to address the above questions in detail, a rigorous economic model and data
collection methodology was required.
a. Economic Model
The overall economic model to be applied for this study includes a detailed cost analysis
of the production facility (proposed for Kabul) including infrastructure, equipment,
human resources, training, raw materials, recurrent costs, etc. over a 5-10 year period.
Cost centers to be examined include overhead and management, support centers, and
direct production materials. A cost allocation model was be used as necessary to
develop final unit cost estimates of production of varying types of IV Fluids.
Similarly, for the importation model, costs of importation will be examined in detail
including purchasing, transport, distribution, accessibility, and timeliness (or cost of
lack of materials or stock-outs).
Benefits will be identified and described for both alternatives, but not in the traditional
benefit-cost analysis approach of examining benefit-cost ratios. It is clear that
Afghanistan must obtain IV Fluids to advance the health of the Afghanistan population
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but the broader economic question relates to which course of action (local production
or importation) should be implemented.
For the purpose of the local domestic production analysis, a questionnaire for domestic
production was designed on basis of the earlier described Excel-based costing tool.
Specifically, there were seven main cost centers addressed in the questionnaire as
follows:
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Infrastructure (building)/land
Machinery and equipment
Human resources
Raw materials
Training
Capacity building
Miscellaneous recurrent expenditure; water, electricity, machinery maintenance,
etc.
Detailed information was requested in each above mentioned categories from a variety
of stakeholders including MoPH staff, Pharmaceutical Enterprise, and private sector
representatives. The main recipient of the questionnaire was Afghanistan
pharmaceutical enterprise. This institution is responsible for a functioning medicine
factory owned by the public in Kabul. This institution was instructed on how to
complete the questionnaire within two weeks. Most of the questions were completed,
although some of the questions were referred to other involved institutions and the
international literature. In addition, the questionnaire was distributed to private sector
representatives who are affiliated with some private manufacturing companies in the
country. Both market analysis and domestic production questionnaires were developed
in English and then translated into Persian by the HEFD team.
Finally, other data sources examined include: MoPH, MoF, Ministry of Economy (MoEC)
records, current distributors of IV Fluids in Afghanistan, public records, assessment
reports including “An Assessment of the Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry in
Afghanistan 2011” by the India Institute of Health Management Research, and two
specific reports comparing the local production IV Fluids with importation:
Virkia Pharmaceuticals Project, VPS Intravenous Project, Business Plan, Uganda, 2011
With regard to the study timeline, data collection took place in July and August 2012.
Analyses and reporting took place in late August and early September 2012.
The data analysis focused on comparing the overall estimated costs of local production
and importation to meet the current and future needs of the Afghan population and in
consideration to current pricing structures in the market. The analysis was conducted
on a 5-year and 10-year basis. Throughout the analysis, an exchange rate of 48
Afs=$1USD was applied, reflecting the rate of exchange during the analysis period. The
following is a list of assumptions applied in the analysis.
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Local Production Analysis Assumptions
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IV Fluid Production Capacity and Market Demand
The production of IV fluids is estimated to include the following fluid types: Dextrose,
Saline, Ringer, Amino Acids, Glucose, Plasma, Sodium Chloride, Manitol and Mix.
Based on multiple stakeholder interviews with both private sector representatives and
Pharmaceutical Enterprise, the current market demand in Afghanistan is estimated to
be 12,000,000 (500 ml units) annually within the current population. Total production
capacity for the domestic production facility is as follows:
Year 1 – 5,000,000 (500 ml units)
Year 2 – 7,000,000 (500 ml units)
Year 3 – 9,000,000 (500 ml units)
Year 4 – 12,000,000 (500 ml units)
Years 5-10 – 15,000,000 (500 ml units)
Figure 1 below highlights the assumptions of local production over the 10-year period
based on proportional estimates of population growth and maximum capacity of the
local production plant.
Figure 1.
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4. Results
The results of the economic evaluation are organized from both economic and financial
perspectives highlighting both total and unit costs of domestic production.
Table 1 shows the estimated economic costs of the local production of IV Fluids in
Afghanistan over a 10-year period. It should be highlighted that raw materials generally
represent the highest proportion of costs annually, while other cost drivers include
infrastructure, equipment, and human resources. The total economic cost of operation is
estimated as 139,587,661 (Afs) of $2,908,076 USD in year 1 and 242,974,203 (Afs) or
$5,061,963 USD in year 10.
Resource Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Infrastructure/Building/Land 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843 22,053,843
Equipment 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578 14,627,578
Human Resources 57,306,240 55,317,427 56,976,950 58,686,259 60,446,846 62,260,252 64,128,059 66,051,901 68,033,458 70,074,462
Raw Materials 31,200,000 44,990,400 59,580,144 81,823,398 105,347,625 108,508,053 111,763,295 115,116,194 118,569,680 122,126,770
Training 3,600,000 - 3,780,000 - 3,969,000 - 4,167,450 - 4,375,823 -
Recurrent Expenditures and
Maintenance 10,800,000 11,124,000 11,457,720 11,801,452 12,155,495 12,520,160 12,895,765 13,282,638 13,681,117 14,091,550
Total Annual Costs Afs 139,587,661 148,113,248 168,476,235 188,992,529 218,600,387 219,969,886 229,635,990 231,132,154 241,341,498 242,974,203
Total Annual Costs $USD $ 2,908,076 $ 3,085,693 $ 3,509,922 $ 3,937,344 $ 4,554,175 $ 4,582,706 $ 4,784,083 $ 4,815,253 $ 5,027,948 $ 5,061,963
Table 2 shows the estimated financial costs of the local production of IV Fluids in
Afghanistan over a 10-year period. It should be highlighted that raw materials generally
represent the highest proportion of costs annually, while other cost drivers include
infrastructure, equipment, and human resources. The total financial cost of operation is
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estimated as 115,508,400 (Afs) or $2,406,425 USD in year 1 and 218,894,942 (Afs) or
$4,560,311 USD in year 10.
Resource Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Infrastructure/Building/
Land 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160 12,602,160
Equipment - - - - - - - - - -
Human Resources 57,306,240 55,317,427 56,976,950 58,686,259 60,446,846 62,260,252 64,128,059 66,051,901 68,033,458 70,074,462
Raw Materials 31,200,000 44,990,400 59,580,144 81,823,398 105,347,625 108,508,053 111,763,295 115,116,194 118,569,680 122,126,770
Training 3,600,000 - 3,780,000 - 3,969,000 - 4,167,450 - 4,375,823 -
Recurrent Expenditures
and Maintenance 10,800,000 11,124,000 11,457,720 11,801,452 12,155,495 12,520,160 12,895,765 13,282,638 13,681,117 14,091,550
Total Annual Costs Afs 115,508,400 124,033,987 144,396,974 164,913,268 194,521,126 195,890,625 205,556,729 207,052,893 217,262,237 218,894,942
Total Annual Costs $USD $ 2,406,425 $ 2,584,041 $ 3,008,270 $ 3,435,693 $ 4,052,523 $ 4,081,055 $ 4,282,432 $ 4,313,602 $ 4,526,297 $ 4,560,311
Furthermore, figure 2 shows the estimated progression of financial costs over the 10-
year period. Costs seemingly rise in the first 4 years, but then subsequently stabilize in
years 5-10, partly due to production maximizing out at 15,000,000 (500ml units).
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Furthermore, Figure 3 shows the key cost drivers for the cost of local production costs
over the 10-year period. Raw materials and human resources represent the largest
proportion of estimated costs. As noted earlier in this report, we assume that the cost of
raw materials includes customs fees in Afghanistan, although a $0.01 (approx. 0.5 Afs)
addition for such fees (per unit) would reflect a 7.5% annual increase in raw materials
costs, still below the cost of importation.
Raw Materials
150000000
Human Resources
100000000
50000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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Figure 4 represents a comparison of the estimated average local production unit costs
(under the economic perspective) with estimated average import prices. It should be
noted that import prices are estimated to be higher each year after year 1. Average
import prices are assumed to be 25 Afs in years 1-5 and 27 Afs in years 6-10.
Meanwhile, local production unit cost estimates, even when considering donated
resources, are expected to stabilize just above 15 Afs per 500ml in year 5. This
considerable difference appears from qualitative discussions to be largely due to
savings in import transportation costs to Kabul.
Figure 4. Estimated Total Average Economic Local Production Unit Costs and
Estimated Average IV Fluid Import Prices over 10 years (Afs).
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
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Figure 5 represents a comparison of the estimated average local production unit costs
(under the financial perspective) with estimated average import prices. The same
assumptions are held for importation prices. Meanwhile, local production unit cost
estimates, are even lower under this model at an average below 15 Afs per 500ml per
year over the 10-year period.
Figure 5. Estimated Total Average Financial Local Production Unit Costs and
Estimated Average IV Fluid Import Prices over 10 years (Afs).
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10
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Figure 6 shows the estimated economies of scale for both total average economic and
financial local production costs over the 10-year period. Economies of scale are reached
in year 5 (14.57 Afs per unit) under the economic model, and year 5 (12.97 Afs per unit)
under the financial model.
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Figure 7 shows the estimated annual profit if the local production units are priced at
22 Afs each year (below the estimated import market price). Total profit over the
10 year period is estimated to equal 917,968,819 (Afs) or $19.1 million USD.
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Finally, Figure 8 shows the estimated annual tax revenue if the tax is 10% of local
production cost each year. For example, year 1 shows a revenue of approximately
9,192,696 (Afs) while year 10 shows a revenue of just over 20,000,000 (Afs), almost
double to year 1.
Figure 8. IV Fluid Local Production – Estimated Annual Tax Revenue (Afs) over
10 years
As for benefits, within this economic analysis there appears to be both estimated
benefits for possible profit for the producing organization, increased government
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revenue, and the provision of steady employment to over 70 Afghans (or citizens from
other countries if expertise is not available in Afghanistan).
Within the context of this recommendation and assumed benefits, a few considerations
should be given to some issues of uncertainty. First, from stakeholder interviews, it is
worth highlighting the fact that customs procedures for raw materials can be very long
and cumbersome, which can add to the societal cost of local production. Secondly,
questions remain about the quality of medicines and raw materials being imported into
Afghanistan and IV fluids are no exception. These questions can pertain to importation
of both IV fluids and raw materials. The costs of raw materials under local production in
Afghanistan are assumed to capture the cost of standardized, international quality raw
materials for the production of IV fluids. Although difficult to quantify, it should be
noted that logistical, supply-chain delays can equally impact the cost of importing IV
fluids or raw materials and must be minimized to reduce these hidden costs. Lastly,
one of the major costs associated with local production is estimated to be human
resources. Although the rates of pay represent the market rate for qualified experts and
staff, Afghanistan may have difficulty staffing these positions based on current levels of
capacity in country, and in this case, it would require attracting qualified staff from
abroad.
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maximize cost-efficiency in local production of IV fluids and strengthening this
component of the health system.
HEFD Staff: Dr. Husnia Sadat, Mr. Zawoli and, Dr. Reshad Osmani were all involved
in components related to data collection, cost and market analysis, and final
reporting of the study results. Dr. Ahmad Shah Salehi guided the entire process from
HEFD end.
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