RISK INDICATORS OF NATURAL

DISASTERS IN BRAZIL

Prof. Dr. Lutiane Queiroz de Almeida

Department of Geography
Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Natal, Brazil
Visiting Scientist, UNU – EHS, Bonn, Germany
lutianealmeida@hotmail.com
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Summary

 Motivation and purposes

 Disasters in Brazil
 Methods and conceptual framework
 Indicators and sources
 Firsts results
 Next steps
 Prelimirary conclusions

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Motivation – Why is it important to produce
risk indicators of natural disasters to Brazil?

 Brazil needs to improve its performance in relation to Disaster

Risk Management (DRM) and the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).
 Brazil already produces several indicators of natural disasters, but
do not have RISK indicators of natural disasters for all its
counties. (For decision makers in Brazil: It is important to make a
basic distinction between DISASTER RISK and DISASTER itself).
 Frequency and magnitude of disasters in Brazil have been
increase.
 Number of affecteds and losses linked to natural disasters in
Brazil also have been increase.
 WRI is an important tool for DRM and DRR. Thus, the production
of natural disaster risk indicators will contribute to decision making
in Brazil with regard to territorial management and disaster risk
management.

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PostDoc Purposes

 Adapting WRI methodology to product a

disaster risk index to Brazil;
 Define risk and vulnerability patterns to disasters in
the country (by county);
 Provide directions for investment in disaster risk
reduction (decision makers);
 Indication of possibilities for further researches.
 Journal publications
 Production of a Report (UNU)
 Contribute to the development of WRI 2015
 UNU-EHS, Stuttgart Univ. and UFRN patternship 3
Why natural disasters occur in Brazil?

 Environmental conditions
1. Climate: Tropicality
2. Geological estruture
3. Relief and soil
4. Hydrographic and hydrological features
 Territorial organization structure: urbanization
 Socio economic conditions

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Brazil: Regions, States and Hydrography

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Brazil: 5,570 counties

6 6
Altimetric model of South America
showing the main morphotectonic
features of the continents (chain X craton
mountains). image produced by NGDC-
NOAA based on digital database
continental topography. 7
Natural hazards, large cities and urban
poor habitat in Latin America.
Fonte: Thouret (2007).

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Natural Disasters in Brazil, absolute values.
1991-2012

Source: Natural Disasters Brazilian Atlas (2013)

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Disasters in Brazil

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Droughts events (1991-2012)

Source: Brazilian Natural Disasters Atlas (2013) 12

Floods events (1991-2012)

Source: Brazilian Natural Disasters Atlas (2013)

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Cyclones events (1991-2012)

Source: Brazilian Natural Disasters Atlas (2013) 14

Landslides events (1991-2012)

Source: Brazilian Natural Disasters Atlas (2013) 15

Total events (1991-2012)

Source: Brazilian Natural Disasters Atlas (2013) 16

Urbanization x Disasters

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Some disaster cases

 Rio de Janeiro 2011

 Rio Branco 2014
 Natal 2014
 Santa Catarina 2004
 Manaus 2012

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 Natural Disasters in the
Montainous Region of
Rio de Janeiro, Jan. 2011

Source:http://www.politicalivre.com.br/2011/01/com-
mais-de-600-mortos-buscas-na-regiao-serrana-entram-
no-6%C2%BA-dia/

Source:http://otemporb.blogspot.de/2011/01/desastres-
naturais-ou-desastres.html
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Montainous Region of Rio de Janeiro

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Landslide in Natal during the World Cup,
16/06/2014
Source: Georisco/UFRN

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 Cyclone Catarina, 03/2004
Category 2 hurricane
(SSHWS/NWS)

http://ciencia.hsw.uol.com.br/frente-fria7.htm

http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furac%C3%
A3o_Catarina#mediaviewer/File:Catarin
a_2004_track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8
9/Cyclone_Catarina_from_the_ISS_on_March_26_
2004.JPG

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 Flood record of the Rio Negro
reached 29,97m and left 53 counties
in a state of emergency in 2012.

http://g1.globo.com/am/amazonas/noticia/2012/12/inter
nautas-elegem-cheia-historica-como-fato-que-marcou-
2012-no-am.html

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Source: Lutiane Almeida, 2012

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Conceptual framework
World Risk Index - WRI

Structure of the Index and the Indicator System,

Source: Torsten Welle and Joern Birkmann
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Components with sub categories and
selected Indicators for the WorldRiskIndex
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Risk Indicators of Natural Disasters in Brazil

Data and Methods

1. Exposure 2. Susceptibility 3. Coping Capacity 4. Adaptative Capacity
EXPOSED PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT AND EDUCATION AND RESEARCH
POPULATION A) % people in households AUTHORITIES A) Illiteracy rate - 15 years or more
WITH REGARD TO with inadequate water supply B) % 15-24 years in primary
A) Landslides and sanitation DISATER PREPAREDNESS C) % 18-24 years in secondary
B) Floods AND EARLY WARNING D) % 15-17 years in terciary
C) Droughts HOUSING CONDITIONS A) Structural measures to
D) Cyclones B) Share of population in reduce disaster risk GENDER EQUITY
E) Sea level rise irregular clusters (slums) B) Disaster risk E) Institution responsible for the formulation, coordination
C) % people in households with management to Floods and implementation of policies for women with specific
inadequate wall materials C) Disaster risk budget
management to Landslides F) County has a Plan of Policies for Women
NUTRITION D) Vulnerable population to G) % Of mothers household heads without complete
POVERTY AND disasters (floods, primary, with children under 15 years
DEPENDENCIES landslides) is registered in
D) Dependency ratio housing programs ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS / ECOSYSTEM
E) % Vulnerable to poverty E) Local structure for PROTECTION
disaster response H) Specific policies and actions for the environment
ECONOMIC CAPACITY AND
INCOME MEDICAL SERVICES ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
F) Per capita income I) Legislation and Planning Instruments
G) Gini index SOCIAL NETWORKS, J) Specific planning tools to prevent disasters
FAMILY AND SELF-HELP L) Commitments Schedule of the Millennium Development
Goals - Manager joined the Agenda of Commitments
MATERIAL COVERAGE
INVESTIMENTS
M) Life expectancy at birth

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Indicators for the Local Risk Index (Brazil)

description
Exposure
Indicator (1A-C)
Physical exposure to landslides, floods and droughts
Measuring unit Spatial and temporal scale
Percentage of expected average annual county scale, based on population grids for
population exposed to hazards per county the year 2010, provided by LandScanTM
Global Population Database (30 arc second)
Data sources
Preview database of UNEP Global Risk Data Platform (GRID)
(http://preview.grid.unep.ch/)
Relevancy of indicator
The exposure – measured as the total number of people exposed to the selected hazards
(landslides, floods, droughts) or rather the share of people exposed to a set of different
hazards - is an important aspect for disaster risk. If not exposed, the county or
population is not at risk.
The knowledge of the population exposed is fundamental for raising awareness and the
development of protection measures (e.g. identification of suitable shelters) and
evacuation strategies (e.g. development of evacuation routes). Additionally, the share of
people exposed to a set of hazards on the total population also provides a first overview
about one problem dimension, in terms of answering the question: how many people are
exposed or might be at risk?
Validity/limitations of indicator
The indicator is based on the estimated number of people exposed to hazards per year. It
results from the combination of the (annual) frequency of hazards (ex-post focus) and
the total population living in the spatial unit exposed for each event. It thus indicates how
many people per year are at risk. The population data is based on the population of the
country in 2010. The indicator is dependent on quality of population estimates and
accuracy of frequency estimation of each hazardous event. (Peduzzi et al. 2009)
Remarks:
The population exposed was calculated for all test counties and the results were
compared with the corresponding risk profile on the prevention web
(http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?iso=deu).
The results were similar to the structure of exposure distribution defined within the maps
of prevention web. 32
Methods

Adapted from World Risk Report 2014.

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Vulnerability Souces
Profile of Brazilian counties - 2013
Brazilian Institute of
Geography and Statistics -
IBGE

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The Atlas of Human Development in
Brazil in 2013 is a platform for
consultation with the Municipal
Human Development Index - IDHM -
of 5,565 Brazilian municipalities, plus
more than 180 indicators on
population, education, housing,
health, work, income and
vulnerability to data extracted from
the Censuses of 1991, 2000 and
2010. (UNDP).

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Exposure sources

Cyclones – tracks and exposure

 Report: Probability of
Occurrence of extratropical
cyclones in the Campos and
Santos Basin, Brazil

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Cyclones – tracks (1980-2009)

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Sea Level
Rise

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Floods, droughts and landslides

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Purchase
 Population grid (Esri Grid) resolution 1 SQ km, LandScan, Brazil.
(LandScan Product Manager, East View Information Services)

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Concluded steps

 Gather all available data (exposure and

vulnerability);
 Exposure Index – Landslides, Floods, Droughts,
Sea Level Rise (not completely);
 Vulnerability Index – all data was normalized;
 Vulnerability Index – spread sheet was concluded
 Vulnerability Index – Normal Distribuctions (SPSS
Statistics) was produced;

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Firsts results

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Vulnerability Indicators Spread sheet

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To validate results...

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Next steps

 Exposure Index – Sea Level Rise and Cyclones

 Vulnerability Index – to analyse Normal Distribuctions
(SPSS)
 Vulnerability Index – Factor Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis,
Bayesian Approach
 Vulnerability Index – conclusion
 Risk Index - conclusion
 Results analysis
 Final report
 Article
 Report presentation in UN Bonn and Univ. Stuttgart

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Comments and Preliminary conclusions

 Gathering available (and reliable) data;

 Organizing data
 WRI adaptation
 To validate results
 Cyclones

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Acknowledgements

CAPES

UFRN

UNU-EHS, VARMAP

Jörn Birkmann

Torsten Welle

Tobias Blätgen

Leila Sousa

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 “Advancing human security through
knowledge-based approaches to reducing
vulnerability and environmental risks“

RISK INDICATORS OF NATURAL

DISASTERS IN BRAZIL

Prof. Dr. Lutiane Queiroz de Almeida

Department of Geography
Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Natal, Brazil
Visiting Scientist, UNU – EHS, Bonn, Germany
lutianealmeida@hotmail.com
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