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Report On Time Series Analysis: Bruce
Report On Time Series Analysis: Bruce
I/ Introduction:
In the previous analysis, we analyzed small- and medium-sized firms on what the government
needed to know in order to manage a large number of SMEs. The purpose of this report is to
analyze data to determine whether there is a seasonal pattern present. Once this is done, there
will be a suitable forecasting model to predict the figures for Year 2018 using the moving
average method.
For customers:
Money Milk Tea has succeeded in capturing the market with the popularity of milk tea among
young people today. At cheap prices, Money has attracted a large number of customers to their
shop. However, their products are not really good.
For employees:
For employees, the work at Money Milk Tea is not too stressful, the owner treats them quite
well. However, there are some opposing opinions.
For Neighbors:
Money's garage is on the sidewalk, so parking lots here makes the sidewalk cramped so there is
no place for pedestrians to make traffic here very messy. Moreover, parking on the other side of
the road will make customers here have to go back and forth often make the traffic situation even
worse.
Also, the noise from the shop and the waste water as well as garbage bothered the people around.
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III/ Analysis on the Bank Loans of SMEs:
A time series is a sequence of numerical data points in successive order. In investing, a time
series tracks the movement of the chosen data points, such as a security’s price, over a specified
period of time with data points recorded at regular intervals. Time series analysis is a tool that
helps us to predict market trends by analyzing old data over a period of time. Time series
includes the following methods:
Moving average: A moving average (MA) by filtering out the “noise” from random
is a widely used indicator in technical price fluctuations. It is a trend-following, or
analysis that helps smooth out price action
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lagging, indicator because it is based on past enrollment, or a sports season. These factors
prices [ CITATION Inv17 \l 1033 ]. can make the data change dramatically.
Seasonal Variation is used to identify change
Seasonal Variation: In a year there will be
rules in economic data.
seasonal factors, such as weather,
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Time series of Micro - size SMEs
60 8
6
50
4
40
2
30 0
-2
20
-4
10
-6
0 -8
Movi ng Tota l (4 s emesters ) Movi ng Average 4 s emesters )
Sea s onal Vari ation
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36.5−42.5
Trendline indicate = =−0.75
8
Task 4
1. Payback period
It is the period of time (year, month) that investors can compensate for the present value of the
capital that the investor has spent.
Or we use:
Payback Period = Number of years prior to full recovery of investment + Unrecovered cost at
start of year/Cash flow during full recovery year
Accounting rate of return (also known as simple rate of return) is the ratio of estimated
accounting profit of a project to the average investment made in the project [ CITATION Acc172
\l 1033 ].
r is discount rate