The return period is the time period over which it is likely that a particular magnitude flood will occur.

E.g: A 50–year flood is defined as a flood that can occur on average once every 50 years.Here, 50 years is
considered the return period.

The probability that events such as floods, wind storms or tornadoes will occur is often expressed as a return period.

The inverse of probability (generally expressed in %), it gives the estimated time interval between events of
a similar size or intensity.

For example, the return period of a flood might be 100 years; otherwise expressed as its probability of
ocurring being 1/100, or 1% in any one year. This does not mean that if a flood with such a return period
occurs, then the next will occur in about one hundred years' time - instead, it means that, in any given year,
there is a 1% chance that it will happen, regardless of when the last similar event was. Or, put differently, it
is 10 times less likely to occur than a flood with a return period of 10 years (or a probability of 10%).

is an estimate of the likelihood of an event, such as an earthquake, flood[1], landslide[2], or a river discharge
flow to occur.

Return Period Estimation of Rainfall of Given Intensity and Duration

The three rainfall variables, intensity (in/hr), duration (min or hr), and frequency (return period) are
interrelated. If any two of these variables are specified the third is fixed. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)
graphs or equations are available for many U.S. locations, typically through a state agency. For more
information about IDF relationships see the article, "Calculating Design Rainfall Intensity for Use in the Rational
Equation."

1. Return Period (T) - The average length of time in years for an event (e.g. flood or river level) of given magnitude
to be equalled or exceeded. For example, if the river level with a 50 year return period at a given location is 8 ft
above flood stage, this is just another way of saying that a river level of 8 ft above flood stage, or greater, should
occur at that location on the average only once every 50 years.

1. Probability of Occurrence (p) (of an event of specified magnitude) - The probability that an event
of the specified magnitude will be equalled or exceeded during a one year period.
2. Probability of Nonoccurrence (q) (of an event of specified magnitude) - The probability that an event
of the specified magnitude will not be equalled or exceeded during a one year period.
3. Probability of Occurrence within a period of N years (pN) - The probability that an event of
specified magnitude will be equalled or exceeded within a period of N years.
4. Probability of Nonoccurrence within a period of N years (qN) - The probability that an event of
specified magnitude will not be equalled or exceeded within a period of N years.

2. Basic Relationships
A fundamental relationship is that between flood return period (T) and probability of occurrence (p). These two
variables are inversely related to each other. That is p = 1/T and T = 1/p. For example, the probability of a 50 year
storm occurring in a one year period is 1/50 or 0.02.
The probability of occurrence and probability of nonoccurrence are related by the fact that something must either occur
or not occur, so p + q = 1 and pN + qN = 1.
From basic probability theory, qN = qN. Substituting to get an equation relating pN and p: 1 - pN = (1 - p)N. This can be
rearranged to: pN = 1 - (1 - p)N.

3. Example Calculations
Question #1: Could a 100 year flood occur in the next year after a 100 year flood has taken place.
Solution: The answer is yes. A 100 year flood has a return period of T = 100, so the probability of a flood of equal or
greater magnitude occurring in any one year period is p = 1/T = 1/100 = 0.01. Thus there is a probability of 0.01 or 1
in 100 that a 100 year flood will occur in any given year. It is not likely, but it is possible. The fact that a 100 year
flood occurred in one year has no effect on the probability of its occurring in the next year.
Question #2: What is the probability that a 50 year river level will occur within the next 10 years at any given location?
Solution: The answer to this can be found using the last equation in the previous section, p N = 1 - (1 - p)N. Since we
are considering a 10 year period of time, N = 10. Also, for a 50 year river level, p = 1/50 = 0.02. Substituting into the
equation: P10 = 1 - (1 - 0.02)10 = 1 - 0.9810 = 0.183. Thus the probability of a 50 year river level occurring in a 10 year
period is about 18%.