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Savills World Research

Spain Investment

Market report
Spain Investment January 2018
GRAPH 1 GRAPH 2
Investment volume by sector Spanish bond yields vs average prime yields
Spanish Bond Yields (10 years) Offices Madrid
Offices Retail Bank branches Industrial Hotel
Offices Barcelona Retail SC
12.000 Retail Warehouse Industrial
Euribor (12 months)
10%
10.000 9%
8%
8.000
7%
6%
mill.€

6.000
5%
4%
4.000
3%
2%
2.000
1%
0%
0
-1%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman Source: Savills Aguirre Newman / INE

SUMMARY
Best year for investment in a decade despite activity slowing in last quarter
■ Just over €9,000 million was investment market. The huge number However, the central government has
transacted in the commercial of players in the most common the necessary tools to guarantee the
property market in 2017, making it markets (offices, retail, industrial/ stability of the region and its legal
the best year in a decade and the logistics and hotels), the lack of security, which will help to regain the
second-best year on record. This product for sale or open-market confidence of international players.
figure fell just 20% short of the processes, less dependence on
€10,700 million invested in 2007. economic cycles and the potential to ■ Cross-border capital which
obtain higher yields, have all helped accounte for 63% of the commercial
■ 2017 was a record year for to divert investor attention towards property total, will continue to drive
investment in hotels and retail. The these types of properties, whilst the market , with US-based funds
rise in tourism and consumption has attracting global firms that specialise leading the way, followed by the UK
attracted investors to these areas. in these markets in their home and France.
countries.
■ On the other hand, total investment ■ Prime yields remained stable in
in offices and logistics fell y-o-y due ■ The Catalan conflict has stalled a 2017 and we expect them to remain
to a severe lack of product. number of sales under negotiation as such in 2018. Only yields for retail
in Barcelona, and has also delayed parks, which are still above pre-crisis
■ Alternative markets are becoming product from coming onto the levels, will tighten slightly.
even stronger in the real estate market due to fears of price cuts.

savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 01
Market report | Spain Investment

growth compared to the previous After the record number of tourists


Economic overview year. The accumulated average that visited Spain in 2016 (75.3
The Spanish economy continued to between January and September million), the early release of figures
remain upbeat in 2017. Y-o-y growth stood at 2.7% and Focus Economics from the Ministry of Energy and
remained stable at 3% for the first expects this to end the year at 2.5%. Tourism place 2017's tourism figure
three quarters, and if the forecasts at 82 million, a 9% increase. The
are right at 3.1% for Q4, this will With regard to retail sales, everything accumulated figures to November
mean that growth will stand at just seems to suggest that it was a strong with regard to tourist arrivals (77.8
over 3% for the year as a whole, year for both general retail and million) is already 3% up on 2016's
delaying a slowdown in GDP growth department stores. Until November figures, and up 9% y-o-y. Catalonia,
to 2018. We would also highlight that indicators show that there was a with an accumulated increase of 6%,
Focus Economics has continued to y-o-y increase of 1.4% and 1.8% is the only region where there was a
revise its annual forecast, from the respectively. reduction in the number of tourists in
predicted 2.3% in January up to October and November (-4.7% and
3.1% in December, which is just two After the slowdown registered in -2.3% respectively).
tenths below the figure recorded in October, which was particularly
2016. sharp in Catalonia (-4%), largely The Ministry also announced that
caused by the political situation in overseas tourists spent a total of
Final household consumption figures the region, the increase in turnover €87,000m. The total spend grew at a
published by the INE have shown from Black Friday and Cyber greater rate than the total number of
that there was a moderate level of Monday gave a significant boost tourists, and as a result the average
to November's results, leaving the spend per tourist climbed to €1,061,
GRAPH 3 national figure up 2.9% y-o-y. Retail up 3.15% y-o-y.
sales in Catalonia also increased, up
Main economic indicators by 1.7%, although it was one of the The Catalan Conflict
five regions with the lowest levels of The instability brought about by
GDP Employment Retail Sales Index
growth, whilst Madrid headed up the the Catalan conflict resulted in a
6%
ranking with a 5.1% increase in retail mass exodus of firms, a slump in
sales. hotel reservations, a slowdown
4% in consumption and a rise in
2%
On the other hand, the Consumer unemployment, which in the short-
Confidence Indicator for November to-medium term could affect a
Annual growth

0% reached above 100, following the number of segments in the real


-2% slight decline in October where it estate market. If business activity
stood at 99.60. This increase was continues to slow, it will have a
-4% brought about by the 3.9% uptick negative impact on the national
-6% in expectations, cancelling out the economy.
2.2% reduction in the evaluation of
-8%
the current situation. The results of the Catalan
-10% elections on 21 December were
Figures for the job market also paint complicated but, as demonstrated
Q3 02
Q3 03
Q3 04
Q3 05
Q3 06
Q3 07
Q3 08
Q3 09
Q3 10
Q3 11
Q3 12
Q3 13
Q3 14
Q3 15
Q3 16
Q3 17

a more positive picture. In Q3, the in October, central government


unemployment rate stood at 16.38%, has the necessary tools to legally
Source: INE
continuing to fall as it has done control any acts of disobedience,
GRAPH 4 since mid-2013, and according to thereby guaranteeing legal stability.
forecasts by Focus Economics, it will Additionally, support from both
Tourism in Spain 2017* continue to do so until at least 2022. the international community and
In terms of national accounting, there European institutions strengthens the
14% was a 2.9% y-o-y increase in job hand of the state in the face of any
creation, and although the end of potential rebellion.
12%
the summer season had an impact
on October's figures, at year-end The only way to overcome the
10%
the number of unemployed stood at clash between regional and central
3.41 million, falling almost 8% on the government and gain stability in
y-o-y (%)

8%
figure registered in December 2016. the region will be via dialogue and
6% In the annual accumulated figure, negotiation of political proposals for
290,193 people found work and the future of Catalonia, considering
4% 611,416 more people signed up to the full spectrum of views, and acting
Social Security. in full respect of the law.
2%
The tourism sector is one of the main Despite the current uncertainty, legal
0% drivers of the economy, accounting security is guaranteed, meaning
No Tourists Total expenditure Average expenditure
tourism per tourist for 11.2% of GDP in 2016, according that the temporary slowdown in
to the latest data published by the investor activity will be resolved as
Source: INE / * Ministry of energy and tourism advance data INE. soon as the conflict is brought under

02
January 2018

GRAPH 5 Barcelona, and so most activity has


Prime yields comparison 2007 vs 2017 been focused on properties that
already had their permits approved
2007 2017 prior to the moratorium.

8%
Retail
7% The retail market was another of the
year's key players, registering close
6% to €3,500 million of investment.
5% This amounts to almost 40% of all
commercial property investment, well
4% over its average of 28%. This is the
3% second year above €3,000 million
since 2000 and is a new all-time
2% record, 11% higher than the €3,125
1% million registered in 2015.

0% The traditional property category


Offices Madrid Offices Retail Retail Industrial Spanish bond
Barcelona warehouse yields 10 years (primarily comprised of shopping
centres, retail warehouses and
supermarkets/hypermarkets) also
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman / Bank of Spain registered a record-breaking year,
accounting for almost €3,000 million
(85% of total investment).
control through regulatory means. the way with €179,603 million.
At present, the situation in Catalonia Additionally, in 2016 Spain was On analysing sub-categories, there
has not had a major impact on the crowned as the top country in the was a marked increase in the retail
rest of the rest of the country. world for tourism, according to warehouse market, which doubled its
the bi-annual report published by 2016 figure to €550 million.
Fourth consecutive year the World Economic Forum. Areas
of growth including Barcelona, Madrid and the Accounting for just over €2,000
Just over €9,000 million was invested Balearic Islands are the preferred million, shopping centres registered a
in the commercial property market destinations for foreigners visiting 42% y-o-y increase.
in 2017, a 8% y-o-y increase. This Spain.
is the fourth consecutive year of There was a rise in the number of
growth, the top year for growth in The tourist hotspots (Catalonia, supermarket/hypermarket deals (nine
the last decade and the second- Madrid and the Balearic Islands) in in 2017 compared to four in 2016),
highest on record in terms of volume terms of tourist arrivals accounted although lot sizes were down 16%,
(excluding corporate deals, land and for almost 50% of the €2,500 million due to the skewing factor of the
owner occupation). The figure for directly invested into hotels in Spain. Eroski portfolio acquired by Invesco
2017 is only 20% behind the record in 2016, which accounted for almost
volume set in 2007. The Canary Islands accounted for 90% of total investment. In 2017, the
almost a third of total investment, supermarket sector accounted for
Given their varying nature, each with property portfolios appearing €340 million.
segment grew differently. Hotels amongst the biggest deals of the
and retail registered increases of year (70% of the c. €750 million With a total investment volume of
52% and 18%, with both markets registered in the Canary Islands was €505 million, the high street sector
achieving record figures, whilst invested in property portfolios). fell by 37% y-o-y. Despite the decline
the offices and industrial/logistics in activity, both in terms of sales
markets fell y-o-y by 23% and 10% The greatest increases in 2017 price, as well as the number of deals
respectively. were seen in the Balearic Islands (-17%), it is key to point out that
and Andalusia, with investment in international funds are now highly
Hotels both regions exceeding five times interested in this type of product,
The strong rise in tourism in Spain the volume seen in 2016. The main primarily linked to private domestic
has been one of the key points reason for this heightened activity capital. In 2017, the cross-border
that has captured the interest of was a need to reposition and investment figure equated to 80% of
investors. According to the latest modernise the outdated hotel stock the total, whereas it has traditionally
data published by the World Tourism in prime beach locations. accounted for closer to 40%.
Organization (WTO), Spain occupies
the third position in the ranking of In terms of urban hotel stock, Logistics
countries with the most international Barcelona has been a major focus The world of e-commerce is rapidly
tourist arrivals, behind the US and in recent years, accounting for close expanding, with chains, individual
France, and second position with to 70% of investment in Catalonia. retailers, and multi-brand platforms
regard to income (with €50,622 Local government regulations will all eager to sell online, and logistics
million) behind the US which leads freeze hotel supply across most of property forms a cornerstone of this

savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 03
Market report | Spain Investment

market. Proper storage and accurate, knock-on effect on the office market were 20% smaller than the properties
timely delivery are key factors in across Spain. sold in 2016.
guaranteeing a positive shopping
experience and have become a tool Just over €2,300 million was invested Madrid and Barcelona lead the way
for winning over consumers. The in 2017, down 23% y-o-y. The total in the Spanish office segment, and
importance of logistics properties number of properties purchased together they accounted for 96% of
in the supply chain contradicts the happens to be unchanged at 93, the total volume and 90% of total
recent decline in investment activity although the number of portfolio transactions. The percentage for
following several years of constant deals rose from 78 in 2016 to 80 in Barcelona was boosted by Merlin’s
growth. 2017. purchase of Torre Glories for €142
million, which equated to 18% of
As outlined previously, the fall in In 2016, seven portfolios were the annual total, and increased
investment volume has mostly purchased, comprising over 22 office Barcelona’s market share to 33%,
been caused by the extreme lack of properties. However, in 2017 only which has typically stood closer to
product that can both satisfy investor one deal was signed: the Boston 25%.
requirements and meet the needs of portfolio, comprising 15 office
operators. With this lack of quality properties (five in Madrid, eight in Close to €100 million was invested
product and the outdated nature of Barcelona and one in Valencia). With in a number of properties located
most logistics stock in Spain, the a gross book value of over €300 in other secondary cities including
solution is now to purchase land in million, Oaktree bought this portfolio Valencia, Malaga, Bilbao and
order to develop new product. The from BBVA in a joint venture with Zaragoza.
location of these plots and the quality Freo.
of the end product will determine the The main housing market indicators
success of the ultimate objective: a The final price of the portfolio was are performing well, and one
quick marketing process with high brought down by the high number increasingly attractive option is to
rents and a long-term contract with of properties within it, along with buy office properties for a change of
top-tier operators. their need to be updated, and the use to residential.
fact that they were all in out-of-
Offices town locations. With regards to the In Madrid and the secondary cities,
The lack of quality investment average size of portfolio properties, all properties undergoing a change of
product available has had a major the buildings in the Boston portfolio use were located in the urban area,

TABLE 1
2017 Top Ten Mega-deals

Market Asset Region Vendor Purchaser Type of deal

Hotel 14 hotels several locations Hi Partners Blackstone portfolio

Arroyomolinos
Retail SC Xanadu Ivanhoe Intu Properties single
(Madrid)

Hotel España building Madrid Trinitario Casanova Riu single

Arroyomolinos
Retail SC Xanadu (50%) Intu Properties TH Real Estate single
(Madrid)

Logístico 11 assets several locations Green Oak GIC portfolio

Retail
Nueva Condomina Murcia varios Klépierre single
SC+ RP
Starwood Capital + London and Re-
Hotel 4 holiday hotels several locations portfolio
Melia gional Properties

Retail RP 9 retail parks several locations Redevcp Vukile portfolio

Offices 14 buildings several locations BBVA Oaktree + Freo portfolio

Hotel 7 hotels several locations Alua Hotels & Resorts Hispania portfolio

Source: Savills Aguirre Newman

04
January 2018

whereas in Barcelona several deals points towards a new expansive (-25%). The hotel segment was
took place in the 22@ technology phase for the market, and forecasts the only area to grow, albeit by a
district, which has now become a for the coming years are bright. moderate 1%.
key business hub in the city. These factors have boosted investor
confidence in recent years, but were The slowdown in the market was
Investor activity slows not enough to maintain high levels due to a number of factors. On
in last quarter of the of investment through into the last the one hand, the lack of available
year quarter. product in certain segments such as
Investor activity slowed in the last offices and industrial/logistics; on
quarter of the year. Investment The investment volume between the other hand, the postponement
across the sectors analysed had October and December stood of several deals due to delays in the
grown by 29%, with upticks in all at close to €2,050 million, down buying process, which could now
segments except for industrial/ 35% y-o-y. Although figures were be completed in 2018. Lastly, the
logistics, which fell by 6% due to the down across all segments, offices Catalonia issue has halted some
lack of product on the market. saw the greatest decline, down by processes, and some investors are
almost 70%. This was followed by likely waiting for the outcome of this
The healthy economic backdrop retail (-28%) and industrial/logistics scenario before moving ahead with
any further deals.
GRAPH 6
This was the case for Hispania's
Volume by segment 2017 office portfolio valued at close
€500m. The portfolio was all but
signed at the end of the summer, but
even though only three out of the
twenty-four properties for sale were
Hotel Offices
26% 26% in Barcelona, the Socimi was forced
to postpone the deal in October as a
result of the Catalonia crisis.

Mega-deals in the
market
We continue to see mega-deals (≥
€100m) in the market, with numbers
Industrial up on 2016 (from 18 to 21), although
8% the €4,200m total in 2017 reach a
Bank Branches similar level than the registered in
1% 2016.

Retail There were mega-deals in all


39% commercial property segments, but
retail accounted for the lion’s share,
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman with 45% of investment volume and
GRAPH 7
deals. Behind retail was hotels, with
37% of investment volume and 30%
Volume by type of investor - 2017 of deals.

Fund Insurance company Investor profiles


Socimi Property company - Developer Funds continue to dominate the
Private NA commercial investment market, with
Food Retailer almost €5,150 million, equating to
10.000 almost 60% of the annual total. They
9.000 increased their investment figure
8.000 by 6% y-o-y, although their overall
7.000 market share remains the same.
mill.€

6.000
Insurance companies registered the
5.000 highest y-o-y growth by volume,
4.000 almost doubling the 2016 figure,
3.000 although this only equated to 6% of
2.000 total volume. Axa, with over €250
1.000 million, accounted for 53% of the
annual insurance company total,
0
and also invested in other segments
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
including student halls of residence,
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman purchasing the Resa university

savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 05
Market report | Spain Investment

residence portfolio, and residential, €12,250m invested in its total Europe economic cycles and the potential to
purchasing 28 properties comprising portfolio, Spain represented just 5% obtain higher yields, have all helped
850 homes in Madrid and Barcelona. (c. €600m). to divert investor attention towards
alternative properties.
Socimis invested a total of €1,550 Although the US topped the ranking,
million, placing them in second place we would also highlight that Britain The main difficulty facing investors is
in terms of overall investment (17% invested around €1,600m, followed the lack of market transparency and
market share). Most of their activity by France, which invested just over the fragmentation of product, which
was focused on retail and offices, €725m. is particularly the case regarding
with 41% and 39% respectively, student halls of residence, care
although looking at all investment in Alternative assets homes and health facilities.
these segments, they accounted for Alternative assets are becoming
29% of offices and 18% of retail. increasingly popular in the real estate In 2017, there were 18 alternative
investment market. The huge number asset deals; 72% of these were
The rising number of Socimis listed of players in the more common student halls of residence and care
on the Alternative Stock Exchange markets (offices, retail, industrial/ homes, with six deals each, followed
(MAB) (48 at YE 2017) has led to a logistics and hotels), the lack of by health facilities, with 22% of
continued increase in their market product for sale or open-market deals; the remaining 6% related to
share, which now stands at 50%. processes, the unpredictability of car parks.
The strength of the real estate market
has prompted greater interest in this GRAPH 8
type of company, giving access to Distribution of cross border investment
smaller investors with insufficient
liquidity to acquire a property.
Domestic Investment Cross border Investment
Originally, the Socimis were 10.000
diversified companies, but we are
9.000
now seeing the creation of more and
more companies specialising in just 8.000
one real estate segment. 7.000

Investor origin 6.000


mill. €

Overseas capital is once again 5.000


proving to be the market driver.
4.000
Almost €5,700m was invested in
2017, equating to 63% of the total. 3.000
Overseas investment led the way 2.000
across all markets except for offices,
where domestic investors accounted 1.000
for 60% of investment volume. 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
By region, Europe provided almost Source: Savills Aguirre Newman
50% of cross-border investment,
GRAPH 9
followed by the United States with
40%. The Middle East and Asia Investment Volume nationality
Pacific accounted for 4% each, in
the region of €250m. Spain EU US Asia Pacific Middle Eastern Other

Europe also accounted for the 10.000


greatest amount of retail investment 9.000
(58%), whilst the United States
leads the way for offices (48%) 8.000
and hotels (49%). In the industrial/ 7.000
logistics market, the €243m invested
6.000
by the Singapore Sovereign Fund
mill.€

in acquiring GreenOak’s logistics 5.000


portfolio in Spain increased the Asia 4.000
Pacific share to 42%.
3.000
China Investment’s acquisition 2.000
of Logicor (a corporate deal, 1.000
this does not form part of the
investment figure) reflects the 0
Asian giant’s enormous interest in 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
internationalising its business. Of the Source: Savills Aguirre Newman

06
January 2018

Just over €1,000m was invested Madrid printing press property to


in this market in 2017, more than their portfolio (purchased two years
four times higher than the figure ago by Knightsbridge (Oaktree)) and
for 2016, when seven deals were intend to change its use to a student
completed. Given the lack of market hall of residence.
transparency, one must also bear
in mind that there were other deals The arrival of specialist players onto
signed for undisclosed sums, the market from other countries
although this is increasingly less means that the outdated stock can
common (43% in 2016 and 24% in now be brought up to date and
2017). renovated, turning them into prime
properties.
Almost €840m was invested in
student halls of residence, largely Their extensive experience in other
comprising the purchases of the markets means that they can divide
Río and Erasmus portfolios. The the space in a way that better adapts
Río portfolio, acquired by GSA from to current demand. In addition,
Oaktree and operated by Nexo, their brand is well-known among
comprises four halls of residence in international students, therefore
Madrid and two new developments ensuring a continued level of growing
in Barcelona. The Erasmus portfolio demand.
was bought in a joint venture by
AXA, CBRE GI and Greystar, and Foreign students who are registered
comprises 37 properties run by the in the Spanish university system for
main operator on the market, Resa. the 2016-17 academic year (98,741)
The properties are spread across 19 amount to 7% of the total. Despite
provinces, with 33 trading properties the decline in the total number of
and the remaining 4 in the project students (down 9% since 2005),
stage. Between them these deals international students have tripled,
accounted for 75% of the total which places them at the forefront
volume. for some operators that are already
focusing on them as their target
In terms of volume, we would also market. ■
particularly note another mega-
deal (≥€100m) in the student
accommodation market, involving
the arrival of the Dutch firm The
Student Hotel in Madrid, following
on from its purchase of two halls
of residence in Barcelona in 2015.
They added the former Gaceta de

GRAPH 10
Volume by segment and investor nationality - 2017
Offices Retail Bank Branches Industrial Hotel Other

4.000

3.500

3.000

2.500
mill.€

2.000

1.500

1.000

500

0
Spain EU US Asia / Middle Other
Pacific Eastern
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman

savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 07
Market report | Spain Investment

Outlook
2018
Demand Supply
■ The favourable economic climate will ■ Generally speaking, forecasts for investment ■ Socimis are now starting to rotate
continue to attract international investors. volume and activity over the next 12 months their assets, which will lead to an
look positive, although this will vary depending increase in investment opportunities.
■ The economy is expected to continue on the different aspects of each segment. The Hispania portfolio, which was taken
to grow, with forecasts even expecting off the market following the Catalan
growth to be higher than other countries ■ Strong tourism figures will reinforce crisis (even though just three of its
in Europe, which will help to make market investor interest in Spain. According to properties were in Barcelona) is valued
fundamentals even more appealing. RCA, the total amount of hotel investment at €500m and will make up the bulk of
(including corporate transactions and owner office market investment.
■ The ease of acquiring finance, as well occupation) reached €6,000m, more than
as a climate of low interest rates, which six times the amount registered in 2016. Yields
will remain stable, at least until mid-2019. ■ The imbalance between supply
■ In the retail market, over €2,500m of and demand will place yields in the
■ The uncertainty surrounding the investment potential has been identified spotlight. The prime yield for the
Catalonia situation will be resolved (traditional and high street product). Strong segments analysed (Madrid and
with the creation of a new regional consumer confidence and retail sales, as Barcelona offices, shopping centres and
government, that will have to always well as growing footfall in shopping centres retail and industrial parks) stands at 35
operate within the legal framework. indicate that the market is consolidated and basis points below the figure registered
As long as investors see that there is will continue to attract interest from the usual in 2007. Yields are expected to remain
institutional stability, Catalonia will come market players, as well as new investors stable, with increases in prices per sqm
back onto investors' radars. looking to enter the Spanish market. being as a result of rental growth.

■ Rents will continue to rise, which ■ Elsewhere, the offices and industrial/ ■ Only yields for prime retail parks
will be key for investors' purchasing logistics sectors will continue to suffer remain above pre-crisis levels, which
strategies. from a lack of available investment means they will continue to tighten.
product. The acquisition of land for
■ Growth is not only affecting the best development, which has been on the rise ■ Prime properties in consolidated
properties in the best areas, but also in the logistics sector in recent years, will secondary locations (shopping centres
product further from the centre, so long become an option for the office market. and offices) will also see some yield
as it meets current quality requirements Colonial has already seized the initiative compression.
(for offices and logistics properties). with the purchase of 110,000 buildable
sqm near Atocha train station in Madrid.

Savills Aguirre Newman team


For further information please contact us:

Luis Espadas Pablo Pavía Salvador González Gema de la Fuente


Capital Markets Offices Investment Retail Investment Research
+34 91 310 10 16 +34 91 310 10 16 +34 91 310 10 16 +34 91 310 10 16
luis.espadas@savills-aguirrenewman.es pablo.pavia@savills-aguirrenewman.es salvador.gonzalez@savills-aguirrenewman.es gema.fuente@savills-aguirrenewman.es

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