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Savills - Spain Investment 2017
Savills - Spain Investment 2017
Spain Investment
Market report
Spain Investment January 2018
GRAPH 1 GRAPH 2
Investment volume by sector Spanish bond yields vs average prime yields
Spanish Bond Yields (10 years) Offices Madrid
Offices Retail Bank branches Industrial Hotel
Offices Barcelona Retail SC
12.000 Retail Warehouse Industrial
Euribor (12 months)
10%
10.000 9%
8%
8.000
7%
6%
mill.€
6.000
5%
4%
4.000
3%
2%
2.000
1%
0%
0
-1%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman Source: Savills Aguirre Newman / INE
SUMMARY
Best year for investment in a decade despite activity slowing in last quarter
■ Just over €9,000 million was investment market. The huge number However, the central government has
transacted in the commercial of players in the most common the necessary tools to guarantee the
property market in 2017, making it markets (offices, retail, industrial/ stability of the region and its legal
the best year in a decade and the logistics and hotels), the lack of security, which will help to regain the
second-best year on record. This product for sale or open-market confidence of international players.
figure fell just 20% short of the processes, less dependence on
€10,700 million invested in 2007. economic cycles and the potential to ■ Cross-border capital which
obtain higher yields, have all helped accounte for 63% of the commercial
■ 2017 was a record year for to divert investor attention towards property total, will continue to drive
investment in hotels and retail. The these types of properties, whilst the market , with US-based funds
rise in tourism and consumption has attracting global firms that specialise leading the way, followed by the UK
attracted investors to these areas. in these markets in their home and France.
countries.
■ On the other hand, total investment ■ Prime yields remained stable in
in offices and logistics fell y-o-y due ■ The Catalan conflict has stalled a 2017 and we expect them to remain
to a severe lack of product. number of sales under negotiation as such in 2018. Only yields for retail
in Barcelona, and has also delayed parks, which are still above pre-crisis
■ Alternative markets are becoming product from coming onto the levels, will tighten slightly.
even stronger in the real estate market due to fears of price cuts.
savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 01
Market report | Spain Investment
8%
figure registered in December 2016. the region will be via dialogue and
6% In the annual accumulated figure, negotiation of political proposals for
290,193 people found work and the future of Catalonia, considering
4% 611,416 more people signed up to the full spectrum of views, and acting
Social Security. in full respect of the law.
2%
The tourism sector is one of the main Despite the current uncertainty, legal
0% drivers of the economy, accounting security is guaranteed, meaning
No Tourists Total expenditure Average expenditure
tourism per tourist for 11.2% of GDP in 2016, according that the temporary slowdown in
to the latest data published by the investor activity will be resolved as
Source: INE / * Ministry of energy and tourism advance data INE. soon as the conflict is brought under
02
January 2018
8%
Retail
7% The retail market was another of the
year's key players, registering close
6% to €3,500 million of investment.
5% This amounts to almost 40% of all
commercial property investment, well
4% over its average of 28%. This is the
3% second year above €3,000 million
since 2000 and is a new all-time
2% record, 11% higher than the €3,125
1% million registered in 2015.
savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 03
Market report | Spain Investment
market. Proper storage and accurate, knock-on effect on the office market were 20% smaller than the properties
timely delivery are key factors in across Spain. sold in 2016.
guaranteeing a positive shopping
experience and have become a tool Just over €2,300 million was invested Madrid and Barcelona lead the way
for winning over consumers. The in 2017, down 23% y-o-y. The total in the Spanish office segment, and
importance of logistics properties number of properties purchased together they accounted for 96% of
in the supply chain contradicts the happens to be unchanged at 93, the total volume and 90% of total
recent decline in investment activity although the number of portfolio transactions. The percentage for
following several years of constant deals rose from 78 in 2016 to 80 in Barcelona was boosted by Merlin’s
growth. 2017. purchase of Torre Glories for €142
million, which equated to 18% of
As outlined previously, the fall in In 2016, seven portfolios were the annual total, and increased
investment volume has mostly purchased, comprising over 22 office Barcelona’s market share to 33%,
been caused by the extreme lack of properties. However, in 2017 only which has typically stood closer to
product that can both satisfy investor one deal was signed: the Boston 25%.
requirements and meet the needs of portfolio, comprising 15 office
operators. With this lack of quality properties (five in Madrid, eight in Close to €100 million was invested
product and the outdated nature of Barcelona and one in Valencia). With in a number of properties located
most logistics stock in Spain, the a gross book value of over €300 in other secondary cities including
solution is now to purchase land in million, Oaktree bought this portfolio Valencia, Malaga, Bilbao and
order to develop new product. The from BBVA in a joint venture with Zaragoza.
location of these plots and the quality Freo.
of the end product will determine the The main housing market indicators
success of the ultimate objective: a The final price of the portfolio was are performing well, and one
quick marketing process with high brought down by the high number increasingly attractive option is to
rents and a long-term contract with of properties within it, along with buy office properties for a change of
top-tier operators. their need to be updated, and the use to residential.
fact that they were all in out-of-
Offices town locations. With regards to the In Madrid and the secondary cities,
The lack of quality investment average size of portfolio properties, all properties undergoing a change of
product available has had a major the buildings in the Boston portfolio use were located in the urban area,
TABLE 1
2017 Top Ten Mega-deals
Arroyomolinos
Retail SC Xanadu Ivanhoe Intu Properties single
(Madrid)
Arroyomolinos
Retail SC Xanadu (50%) Intu Properties TH Real Estate single
(Madrid)
Retail
Nueva Condomina Murcia varios Klépierre single
SC+ RP
Starwood Capital + London and Re-
Hotel 4 holiday hotels several locations portfolio
Melia gional Properties
Hotel 7 hotels several locations Alua Hotels & Resorts Hispania portfolio
04
January 2018
whereas in Barcelona several deals points towards a new expansive (-25%). The hotel segment was
took place in the 22@ technology phase for the market, and forecasts the only area to grow, albeit by a
district, which has now become a for the coming years are bright. moderate 1%.
key business hub in the city. These factors have boosted investor
confidence in recent years, but were The slowdown in the market was
Investor activity slows not enough to maintain high levels due to a number of factors. On
in last quarter of the of investment through into the last the one hand, the lack of available
year quarter. product in certain segments such as
Investor activity slowed in the last offices and industrial/logistics; on
quarter of the year. Investment The investment volume between the other hand, the postponement
across the sectors analysed had October and December stood of several deals due to delays in the
grown by 29%, with upticks in all at close to €2,050 million, down buying process, which could now
segments except for industrial/ 35% y-o-y. Although figures were be completed in 2018. Lastly, the
logistics, which fell by 6% due to the down across all segments, offices Catalonia issue has halted some
lack of product on the market. saw the greatest decline, down by processes, and some investors are
almost 70%. This was followed by likely waiting for the outcome of this
The healthy economic backdrop retail (-28%) and industrial/logistics scenario before moving ahead with
any further deals.
GRAPH 6
This was the case for Hispania's
Volume by segment 2017 office portfolio valued at close
€500m. The portfolio was all but
signed at the end of the summer, but
even though only three out of the
twenty-four properties for sale were
Hotel Offices
26% 26% in Barcelona, the Socimi was forced
to postpone the deal in October as a
result of the Catalonia crisis.
Mega-deals in the
market
We continue to see mega-deals (≥
€100m) in the market, with numbers
Industrial up on 2016 (from 18 to 21), although
8% the €4,200m total in 2017 reach a
Bank Branches similar level than the registered in
1% 2016.
6.000
Insurance companies registered the
5.000 highest y-o-y growth by volume,
4.000 almost doubling the 2016 figure,
3.000 although this only equated to 6% of
2.000 total volume. Axa, with over €250
1.000 million, accounted for 53% of the
annual insurance company total,
0
and also invested in other segments
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
including student halls of residence,
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman purchasing the Resa university
savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 05
Market report | Spain Investment
residence portfolio, and residential, €12,250m invested in its total Europe economic cycles and the potential to
purchasing 28 properties comprising portfolio, Spain represented just 5% obtain higher yields, have all helped
850 homes in Madrid and Barcelona. (c. €600m). to divert investor attention towards
alternative properties.
Socimis invested a total of €1,550 Although the US topped the ranking,
million, placing them in second place we would also highlight that Britain The main difficulty facing investors is
in terms of overall investment (17% invested around €1,600m, followed the lack of market transparency and
market share). Most of their activity by France, which invested just over the fragmentation of product, which
was focused on retail and offices, €725m. is particularly the case regarding
with 41% and 39% respectively, student halls of residence, care
although looking at all investment in Alternative assets homes and health facilities.
these segments, they accounted for Alternative assets are becoming
29% of offices and 18% of retail. increasingly popular in the real estate In 2017, there were 18 alternative
investment market. The huge number asset deals; 72% of these were
The rising number of Socimis listed of players in the more common student halls of residence and care
on the Alternative Stock Exchange markets (offices, retail, industrial/ homes, with six deals each, followed
(MAB) (48 at YE 2017) has led to a logistics and hotels), the lack of by health facilities, with 22% of
continued increase in their market product for sale or open-market deals; the remaining 6% related to
share, which now stands at 50%. processes, the unpredictability of car parks.
The strength of the real estate market
has prompted greater interest in this GRAPH 8
type of company, giving access to Distribution of cross border investment
smaller investors with insufficient
liquidity to acquire a property.
Domestic Investment Cross border Investment
Originally, the Socimis were 10.000
diversified companies, but we are
9.000
now seeing the creation of more and
more companies specialising in just 8.000
one real estate segment. 7.000
06
January 2018
GRAPH 10
Volume by segment and investor nationality - 2017
Offices Retail Bank Branches Industrial Hotel Other
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
mill.€
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
Spain EU US Asia / Middle Other
Pacific Eastern
Source: Savills Aguirre Newman
savills-aguirrenewman.es/research 07
Market report | Spain Investment
Outlook
2018
Demand Supply
■ The favourable economic climate will ■ Generally speaking, forecasts for investment ■ Socimis are now starting to rotate
continue to attract international investors. volume and activity over the next 12 months their assets, which will lead to an
look positive, although this will vary depending increase in investment opportunities.
■ The economy is expected to continue on the different aspects of each segment. The Hispania portfolio, which was taken
to grow, with forecasts even expecting off the market following the Catalan
growth to be higher than other countries ■ Strong tourism figures will reinforce crisis (even though just three of its
in Europe, which will help to make market investor interest in Spain. According to properties were in Barcelona) is valued
fundamentals even more appealing. RCA, the total amount of hotel investment at €500m and will make up the bulk of
(including corporate transactions and owner office market investment.
■ The ease of acquiring finance, as well occupation) reached €6,000m, more than
as a climate of low interest rates, which six times the amount registered in 2016. Yields
will remain stable, at least until mid-2019. ■ The imbalance between supply
■ In the retail market, over €2,500m of and demand will place yields in the
■ The uncertainty surrounding the investment potential has been identified spotlight. The prime yield for the
Catalonia situation will be resolved (traditional and high street product). Strong segments analysed (Madrid and
with the creation of a new regional consumer confidence and retail sales, as Barcelona offices, shopping centres and
government, that will have to always well as growing footfall in shopping centres retail and industrial parks) stands at 35
operate within the legal framework. indicate that the market is consolidated and basis points below the figure registered
As long as investors see that there is will continue to attract interest from the usual in 2007. Yields are expected to remain
institutional stability, Catalonia will come market players, as well as new investors stable, with increases in prices per sqm
back onto investors' radars. looking to enter the Spanish market. being as a result of rental growth.
■ Rents will continue to rise, which ■ Elsewhere, the offices and industrial/ ■ Only yields for prime retail parks
will be key for investors' purchasing logistics sectors will continue to suffer remain above pre-crisis levels, which
strategies. from a lack of available investment means they will continue to tighten.
product. The acquisition of land for
■ Growth is not only affecting the best development, which has been on the rise ■ Prime properties in consolidated
properties in the best areas, but also in the logistics sector in recent years, will secondary locations (shopping centres
product further from the centre, so long become an option for the office market. and offices) will also see some yield
as it meets current quality requirements Colonial has already seized the initiative compression.
(for offices and logistics properties). with the purchase of 110,000 buildable
sqm near Atocha train station in Madrid.
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