Year Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow

0 0 (25000)
1 6000 (19000)
2 8000 (11000)
3 11000 0 Payback at year 3
4 11000 11000
5 11000 22000

Year Cash Flow Discounted Factor Present Value at 8% Cumulative Present Value
0 (25000) 1.0000 (25000) (25000)
1 6000 0.9259 5556 (19444)
2 8000 0.8573 6859 (12586)
3 11000 0.7938 8732 (3854)
4 11000 0.7350 8085 4232
5 11000 0.6806 7486 11718
Payback

Project Life 5 Years

Project CosNet Profit 25000
Year Net Profit
1 3500
2 4500
3 7000
4 7000
5 6000
28000 average 5600
Accounting Rate Return 22.4%
Residual Value 3000
Average Accounting rate return 40.0%
Project 2 Project 1
Year Net Cash Flow Discounted 8% Present Value
1 5000 0.9259 4630 6000
2 8000 0.8573 6859 8000
3 11000 0.7938 8732 11000
4 10000 0.7350 7350 11000
Total Present 27571 11000
Initial Cost 25000
NPV 2571
Year Net Cash Flow Discount
5% 10% 15%
1 6000 0.9524 0.9091 0.8696
2 8000 0.9070 0.8264 0.7561
3 11000 0.8638 0.7513 0.6575
4 11000 0.8227 0.6830 0.5718
5 11000 0.7835 0.6209 0.4972
5.719366 month

3 Year 6 month

0.9259 5556
0.8573 6859
0.7938 8732
0.7350 8085
0.6806 7486
36718
11718
Present Value
20% 25% 5 10 15 20 25
0.8333 0.8000 5714 5455 5217 5000 4800
0.6944 0.6400 7256 6612 6049 5556 5120
0.5787 0.5120 9502 8264 7233 6366 5632
0.4823 0.4096 9050 7513 6289 5305 4506
0.4019 0.3277 8619 6830 5469 4421 3604
40141 34674 30257 26647 23662
NPV 15141 9674 5257 1647 1,338

IRR 23.37623 23.17752 22.97143 22.75867

Period Demand Forecast Error E^2 Absolute error absolute % error
1 20 22 -2 4 2 10.00
2 21 24 -3 9 3 14.29
3 26 23 3 9 3 11.54
4 23 27 -4 16 4 17.39
5 23 25 -2 4 2 8.70
6 22 23 -1 1 1 4.55
total -9 43 15 66.46
Bias Mse mad mape
-1.5 7.166667 2.5 11.0760978152
Underestimate forecast
alpha 0.2 initial 15
Periode Demand
1 16
2 13
3 14
4 14
5 20
6 16

Periode Demand Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Error 1 Error 2 E(1)^2 E(2)^2

1 20 17 15 3 5 9.00 25.00
2 22 23 20 -1 2 1.00 4.00
3 26 24 22 2 4 4.00 16.00
4 19 22 24 -3 -5 9.00 25.00
5 14 17 19 -3 -5 9.00 25.00
-2 1 32 95
Bias MSE
-0.4 0.2 6.40 19
Abs E Abs E(2) Abs % E(1)Abs % E(2)
3 5 15.00 25.00
1 2 4.55 9.09
2 4 7.69 15.38
3 5 15.79 26.32
3 5 21.43 35.71
12 21 64.46 111.51
MAD MAPE
2.4 4.2 12.89116 22.30112
periode Demand Forecast
1 212 208.00
2 216 208.40
3 424 209.16
4 486 230.64
5 212 256.18
6 208 251.76
7 208 247.39
8 204 243.45

Period Demand Forecast Error E^2 Absoulte Absolute %

1 20 22 -2 4 2 10.00
2 21 24 -3 9 3 14.29
3 26 23 3 9 3 11.54
4 23 27 -4 16 4 17.39
5 23 25 -2 4 2 8.70
6 22 23 -1 1 1 4.55
Total -9 43 15 66.46
Bias MSE MAD MAPE
-1.5 7.17 2.5 11.08
Underestimate forecast
Square
58 52 6.00 6 36.00
58 63 -5.00 5 25.00
58 58 0.00 0 0.00
58 60 -2.00 2 4.00
58 55 3.00 3 9.00
58 54 4.00 4 16.00
58 62 -4.00 4 16.00
404 24 106.00
average 57.714 MAD 3.43 15.14
Standard D 4.29 3.89