ABSTRACT

The Illinois Junior Academy of Science

This form/paper may not be taken without IJAS authorization.

CATEGORY Environmental Science STATE REGION # 6

SCHOOL Niles North High School IJAS SCHOOL # 6038
CITY/ZIP Skokie, IL 60077 SCHOOL PHONE # 8476262254
SPONSOR Christi Camel

MARK ONE: EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION X DESIGN INVESTIGATION ▢

NAME OF SCIENTIST* Omar Saeed GRADE
NAME OF SCIENTIST GRADE
NAME OF SCIENTIST GRADE
NAME OF SCIENTIST GRADE

* If this project is awarded a monetary prize, the check will be written in this scientist's name, and it will be his/her responsibility to
distribute the prize money equally among all participating scientists.

Looking for a Direct Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Global Average
PROJECT TITLE Temperatures

Purpose: To have a better understanding of this phenomenon. With the ability to predict climate and work to find
solutions based upon these predictions

Procedure:

1. Plot data on graph

2. Look for close relationship between the plots
3. If there is not close one, differentiate data
4. Look for a close relationship
5. Once found, create numerical expression

Conclusion:

Looking at the data, one sees no close relationship at first. Even after differentiation. However, looking at the first
graph;s best fit lines, one starts to see a trend. This trend is a little inconsistent but says something. Carbon dioxide acts
over a threshold amount and over a period of time. This can be seen in the graph when seen from that perspective.
However, looking at data alone, it is very hard to predict what the next year’s temperatures will look like. This is due to
the many factors affecting global temperatures some being, our position in orbit relative to the sun’s more active regions,
deforestation, forest fires, and more.
 SAFETY SHEET
The Illinois Junior Academy of Science
Directions: The student is asked to read these introductions carefully and fill out the bottom of this sheet. The science teacher an
advisor must sign in the indicated space. By signing this sheet, the sponsor assumes all responsibilities related to this project.

Safety and the Student: Experimentation or design may involve an element of risk or injury to the student, test subjects and
others. Recognition of such hazards and provision for adequate control measures are joint responsibilities of the student and
sponsor. Some of the more common risks encountered in research are those of electrical shock, infection from pathogenic organism
uncontrolled reactions of incompatible chemicals, eye injury from materials or procedures, and fire in apparatus or work ar
Countering these hazards and others with suitable safety practices is an integral part of good scientific research. In the chart bel
list the principal hazards associated with your project, if any, and what specific precautions you have used as safeguards. Be sure
read the entire section in the Policy and Procedure Manual of the Illinois Junior Academy of Science entitled "Safety Guideline
Experimentation" before completing this form.

Possible hazards Precautions taken to deal with each hazard

● Eye strain ● Frequent breaks to relieve eye strain

● Fatigue ● Proper sleep schedule is set up

Specific safety practices related to materials requiring endorsement sheets should be detailed on the specific
endorsement sheet and not included on this safety sheet.

Please check off any other possible endorsements needed. Include these documents in your paper and on your board.
_____Humans as Test Subjects –for any projects involving humans including survey administration;
_____Microorganisms-for any projects involving bacteria, viruses, yeasts, fungi or protazoa;
_____Non-Human Vertebrates -for any projects involving fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds or mammals;
_____Tissue Culture-for any projects involving growing eukaryotic tissues or cell cultures;
_____Letter from institution where research was done or IJAS SRC, if an exception to the IJAS rules has been granted…

SIGNED O.S.
Student Exhibitor(s)
SIGNED

Sponsor *
*As a sponsor, I assume all responsibilities related to this project.
Looking for a Direct Relationship
Between Carbon Emissions and
Global Average Temperatures
 Table Of Contents

Acknowledgements…………………………………………………………………………………….1

Purpose and Hypothesis.………………………………………………………………………………2

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………3

Materials and Procedure……………………………………………………………………………….6

Variables…………………………………………………………………………………………………7

Results…………………………………………………………………………………………………..8

Conclusion..……………………………………………………………………………………………12

Reference List…………………………………………………………………………………………17
 Acknowledgements

During the course of this school year, one person comes to mind when it comes to actual
meaningful help in creating a good concise project: my instructor Miss Camel. Her extreme
patience and understanding when I was confused has been an immense help. She also knew
how much to help. She does not do the thinking for you, just bounces ideas.
 Purpose and Hypothesis
Why should we do this? Well to understand the problem of Global Warming, we need to
deconstruct it to its most basic version and its basic causes. The increase of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere. Knowing this information can be beneficial to come up with affordable and
ingenious solutions that may not seem obvious at first glance. With that being said, I don’t
hypothesize the existence of a close numerical relationship between carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere and global average temperatures or the rate at which they increase. The reason I
think this is the case is because of the sheer number of causes of global warming. Everything
from industry to deforestation and the increase of the both of them, there is a propelled “inertial”
effect that makes a simple direct relation really unlikely. There are also other factors affecting
how hot a summer is or how cold a winter is. Those can be things like our position in the solar
system or how active a region of the sun is and how close we are to that region.
 Introduction
Global warming. The increase in the gradual heating of the earth’s surface, oceans, and
atmosphere. It is a constantly rising concern for humanity and its future. What are the factors
that influence the constant change in our climate and the overall increase in temperatures across
the globe. What are the main factors causing these changes? Which is the most impactful based
on the statistics? More and more questions are being asked as to what is the main cause of
global warming and what can it be attributed to. The main question is no longer whether or not
the planet’s climate is changing. The question is in what is causing this change and whether or
not humans are at the forefront of said change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
an organization started by the UN to be the authority on climate change, stated that “scientists
are more sure than ever of the link between human activities and global warming.” (Pappas,2017)
Since that is the case, what are the factors? They boil down to two main gases: carbon dioxide
and oxygen. One is the saving grace of this planet and the other is the cause of worry. Looking
at one will inevitably lead to a better understanding of what needs to happen to stop the changes
that can be drastic to our current way of life.

First let’s look at what causes these increases. According to National Geographic. The
main cause for these increases is the emission of “Greenhouse gases”. These gases include
Carbon Dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The most effective agent of global climate change
of these gases is Carbon dioxide. How do they warm the planet so much? The key lies in how a
Carbon Dioxide infested atmosphere interacts with energy coming in to the planet. The
atmosphere is mostly comprised of oxygen and nitrogen. Since both have only two atoms in
their molecular buildup, they are not good at absorbing heat. However carbon dioxide, methane,
and other greenhouses gases have more than two atoms in their buildup. This means that they
are exceptionally good at absorbing heat and allowing it to stay in the Earth. This results in the
phenomenon of global warming (Pappas,2017). All of this is very preventable too. When studying
the wavelengths that affect the planet, scientists can determine what created such a
wavelength. They have found that it was the very gases that were predicted to be the cause of
the rise in global temperatures. And in fact, the excess carbon that is causing this warming is
the type that we emit from our factories. Scientists know this by studying the excess carbon and
what isotope it is. The isotopes that are in excess are, in fact, the ones that we produce in
factories (Pappas,2017).

There is an entity that controls such increases in carbon dioxide: rainforests. The United
States Environmental Protection Agency defines deforestation as the “permanent removal of
standing forests.” (Effects of Deforestation, n.d.) Humans are ridding the planet of rainforests at
a rate of half the size of England a year (Deforestation and Its Effects on the Planet, 2017).This
can have serious implications on the planet we live in. That being serious climate change.
Forests have moisture that is protected by the shade from the trees. This moisture can be easily
lost (Deforestation and Its Effects on the Planet, 2017). Trees help perpetuate the water cycle
by returning water vapor back into the atmosphere. However, with less trees, there will be less
water. This leads to a vicious cycle of loss of trees and plant life. Other than the fact that trees
and plant life are a source of nutrition for an entire ecosystem and without them many species
that humans rely on for food can die, they also help in the control of greenhouse gases that
warm the planet. Scientists have found that trees play a main role in the absorption of
greenhouse gases and their replacement with oxygen; its effect will be discussed soon. Also,
since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, water leaving the soil and out into the atmosphere can
also warm the atmosphere even more. Which, in summary, this means that less trees means
more greenhouse gases and less trees to absorb those greenhouse gases which means more
absorption of sunlight and heat.

With less trees and less oxygen released as a waste product through photosynthesis, we
have a less dense and protective atmosphere. Chris Poulsen, University of Michigan Climate
Scientist, and his colleagues have studied the earth’s history in regards to oxygen levels and
their effect on the planet. They specifically studied the Great Oxygenation Event, which was a
period in the earth’s history where oxygen levels spiked due to an increase of organisms that
photosynthesize. (Plait, 2014) Poulsen and his colleagues found that an atmosphere more rich in
oxygen, is a more dense one. Meaning more sunlight is repelled by the atmosphere and less of it
is stored in the earth, thereby warming it.

What would happen if we let this run its course? Why should any of us even care about a
warming planet? Doesn’t that just mean more summer and less winter? Well no. The effects are
a serious danger to our ways of life. One of them being an increase in extreme weather. Not only
has the US been experiencing the hottest summers in recorded history, it has also been
experiencing colder than usual winters. This happens because the warming of the earth causes
the polar jet stream to migrate south. This brings the cold gusts of wind from the arctic down
south to the continental US. (Pappas, 2017). However this is not the only example of extreme
weather events that can be caused by global warming. Hurricane and storm behaviours will
change. While there will be less of them globally, their numbers will increase in some areas and
they will be much more destructive and catastrophic. (Pappas, 2017) Another example of more
extreme weather events is an increase in lightning activity. “A fifty percent increase in the
number of lightning strikes within the US can expected by 2100 if temperatures continue to rise
due to greenhouse gas emissions…” (Oskin, 2014) Scientists project that events such as heat
waves, droughts, blizzards, and rainstorms will be more intense and last longer because the
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will stay there for decades or more. (Pappas, 2017).
Another effect of global warming is the melting of the ice caps. According to the National Snow
and Ice Data Center, there is now 10 percent less permafrost on the planet. This can cause
landslides and outbreaks of diseases through the thawing of frozen carcasses that had not been
decomposed (Pappas, 2017). This is the only type of melting problem. Sea ice hit a record low in
the winter and fall of 2015 and 2016. This means that more and more ice that would otherwise be
reflecting light from the sun and not absorbing its heat exists. Instead we have the relatively
darker oceans that absorb more light and reflect less of it, causing a cycle of warming and
melting. This type of melting is also a problem because the warmth exists in the area where the
ice needs to be melting in. (Pappas, 2017). This can have serious implications. “In general, as
ice melts, sea levels rise…” (Pappas, 2017). The World Meteorological Organization reported
that sea levels accelerated to 0.12 inches per year on average worldwide for the 21st century.
That is almost double the rate at which it was in the 20th century. Researchers project that sea
levels will be higher by 2.3 feet in New York, 2.9 feet at Hampton roads Virginia, and 3.5 feet in
Galveston, Texas (Pappas, 2017). According to an IPCC report, global average sea levels will
increase by 3.0 feet by 2100. Another effect on the oceans is their acidification. Since the
1700s, the oceans’ acidity has increased by 25%. This is because of the increase of Carbon
Dioxide in the atmosphere. This can harm the delicate ecosystems of the oceans and hurt
marine life. (Pappas, 2017)

All of this can be an overwhelming amount of information to take in and try to do

something about. However, if humans want to leave a good planet for future generations, then we
must consider the facts directly. Consider solutions to the many problems facing the
environment such as, extreme temperatures, melting of the ice caps, sea level rises, ocean
acidification and the consequences of such things. Starting from the beginning and looking for a
numerical relationship between the increase of carbon in the atmosphere and changes in global
average temperatures may be the answer. Starting simple. Seeing how closely related are the
two, the closer the easier the solution. The farther the more factors, meaning more solutions and
factors to think about.
 Materials and Procedure
Materials:
● Google Spreadsheets
● The Balance (https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543)
● Global Climate Change Vital Signs of the Planet
(https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543)
● World Resources Institute
(http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions )

Procedure:
 Variables
● Dependent:
○ Temperature
○ Rate of temperature change
○ Further derivatives
● Independent:
○ Amount of Carbon
○ Rate of temperature change
○ Further derivatives
● Constant:
○ None. Too much changes in an experiment of natural interactions between factors
in nature.
● Control
○ None. I do not have another planet/previous society
 Results
Results
All of the data points on this are per year
Year range is from 1960 - 2011

This shows the data of the amount of Carbon in the Atmosphere and Temperature increase from
the Prior Year.
This shows data of the amount of Carbon in the Atmosphere and the Acceleration of Change of
Global Temperature
Ratio of Temperature Change vs Carbon Emissions over 1 Year

Ratio of Temperature vs Carbon Emissions over 2 Years

Ratio between Temperature Acceleration vs Difference in Carbon Change
 Conclusion
To understand what is happening I had to take graphs of multiple sets of data. First I had
to take a graph both the temperature change and the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

Looking at this graph, one can notice a specific trend that may not be obvious at first.
The effects of carbon emissions take time. Two factors go into carbon’s effect on global
temperatures. One is the amount. The other is the amount of time its in the atmosphere. With an
increase in carbon and the passage of time, temperature increases. This is talking about best fit
lines and trends, however in reality, there are more factors affecting global temperatures such as
our position in the solar system relative to active spots in the sun and other factors such as
deforestation.

I had multiple data sets for this project. Seeing how carbon takes time to have an effect,
I tried to relate it to temperature change over a certain amount of time. I took the ratios of the
two over two sets of period of time. 1 year after and 2 years after. The results were interesting.
 At first glance, these look like the same graphs that have the same data points. I can
only assume that it was this way because of two possible reasons. One being that the time
frame was too short given the amount of time. Or, and this is related to the time frame, the
relationship to carbon and temperature changes because of the unrelated factors mentioned
earlier.
Lastly, I wanted to check if there is a more predictable relationship so I differentiated
temperature and tried to find a predictable ratio between the temperature “acceleration” and the
amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

However the reality of the situation did not show anything predictable. What I did notice is
that it was the close opposite of the relationship between temperature increase and the amount
of carbon in the atmosphere over the two sets However the reason for this could just be a result
of the actual changes in the temperature and its acceleration.

Doing this project, I had to really look through data that, at first glance, looks like there is
no relationship between the factors being tested. However, I knew that global warming IS
happening based upon research and evidence seen both on the daily and throughout longer
periods of time. This meant that I was not seeing something. Then I started thinking about it and
realized that the earth has always had carbon, meaning the ADDED carbon is causing the effect.
Also knowing how the warming is caused which is the absorption and trapping of heat in the
atmosphere, meaning this took time. Realizing these two things, I finally saw it in the graph and
started looking at other relationships.

This project was meant to provide a simple relationship through an equation based upon
temperature change in the atmosphere and the amount of carbon in it. Since the actual data
showed nearly no predictable correlation, I could not find one or create one. Sadly.
 Another step that can be taken towards the search for this is further studying of the sun,
its active regions, and our position in orbit. This could provide more consistent and more reliable
data.
 References

● Amadeo, K. (2018, January 30). The Strange Ups and Downs of the U.S. Economy Since
1929. Retrieved March 16, 2018, from
https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
● Deforestation and Its Effect on the Planet. (2017, July 25). Retrieved March 22, 2018, from
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/deforestation/?_ga=2.1687
56263.744223755.1521750263-1403238806.1521144733
● Effects of Deforestation | The Pachamama Alliance. (n.d.). Retrieved March 29, 2018,
from https://www.pachamama.org/effects-of-deforestation
● Forsberg, M. (2017, July 14). Causes of Global Warming. Retrieved March 16, 2018, from
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/global-warming-causes/
● Friedrich, J., & Damassa, T. (2014, May 21). The History of Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
Retrieved March 24, 2018, from
http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions
● Oskin, B. (2014, November 13). Global Warming Will Bring More US Lightning Strikes.
Retrieved March 30, 2018, from
https://www.livescience.com/48751-global-warming-more-us-lightning.html
● Pappas, A. B. (2017, August 12). Effects of Global Warming. Retrieved March 17, 2018,
from https://www.livescience.com/37057-global-warming-effects.html
● Plait, P. (2014, July 28). When a Species Poisons an Entire Planet. Retrieved March 29,
2018, from
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/07/28/the_great_oxygenation_event_the_
earth_s_first_mass_extinction.html
● Sasser, W. E. (2014, August 01). Match Supply and Demand in Service Industries.
Retrieved March 17, 2018, from
https://hbr.org/1976/11/match-supply-and-demand-in-service-industries
● Zielinski, S. (2015, June 11). Earth's Oxygen Levels Can Affect Its Climate. Retrieved
March 29, 2018, from
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/earths-oxygen-levels-can-affect-its-climat
e-180955572/