Newfoundland and Labrador

Voter Intention Numbers

7th May 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on
results of three surveys. The survey was
conducted between May 2nd and May 3rd,
2018 among a sample of 595 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Newfoundland and
Labrador. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources
and random digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
4.01% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
NEWFOUNDLAND LIBERALS LEAD PCs BY SIX

Our latest Newfoundland and Labrador poll shows the governing Liberals with
a six point lead over the Progressive Conservatives.

The poll surveyed 595 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador residents over
the age of 18 between May 2nd and 3rd and has a margin of error of +/- 4.01%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Premier Dwight Ball
currently have 41.7% support, while the PCs with new leader Ches Crosbie are
at 35.7%. The NDP with Gerry Rogers at the helm currently enjoy 18.4%.

The Liberals lead among both men and women but have a much larger lead
among women (10.4% lead among men compared to 1.4% lead among women).
While the Progressive Conservatives lead among voters under the age of 35,
the Liberals have significant leads with voters over the age of 35.

The poll was fielded after the Progressive Conservatives had chosen Ches
Crosbie as their leader.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters
vote for?

Undecided 18.8%

Liberals 34.1%

Another Party 2.9%

All Voters
NDP 14.5%

Decided and Leaning Voters Progressive Conservatives 29.6%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Another Party Undecided

Another Party 4.3%

NDP 18.4%

Liberals 41.7%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Progressive Conservatives 35.7%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Another Party

 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 34.1% 33.8% 34.3% 26% 27.9% 37.8% 43.4%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 29.6% 31.6% 27.8% 30.4% 33.9% 27.8% 26.7%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 14.5% 16.8% 12.4% 15.3% 16.3% 15.1% 11.2%
Another Party 2.9% 3.8% 2.2% 5.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5%
Undecided 18.8% 14.1% 23.3% 22.3% 19.3% 17.1% 17.2%
Unweighted Frequency 595 276 319 85 118 185 207
Weighted Frequency 595 288 307 134 144 177 140

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 36.3% 34.2% 38.3% 28.2% 30.4% 40.5% 44.8%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 31.2% 32.9% 29.5% 31.6% 35.6% 30% 27.7%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 16.1% 18.4% 14% 20% 17.2% 16.2% 11.2%
Another Party 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 7.1% 4.2% 2.2% 1.9%
Undecided 12.7% 10.8% 14.5% 13.1% 12.6% 11.2% 14.4%
Unweighted Frequency 595 276 319 85 118 185 207
Weighted Frequency 595 288 307 134 144 177 140

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 41.7% 38.3% 44.9% 32.5% 34.9% 45.7% 52.5%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 35.7% 36.9% 34.5% 36.4% 40.8% 33.6% 32.2%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 18.4% 20.6% 16.3% 23% 19.5% 18.3% 13%
Another Party 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 8.1% 4.8% 2.4% 2.3%
Unweighted Frequency 518 248 270 74 103 164 177
Weighted Frequency 518 250 268 116 125 154 122
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held
today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between May 2nd,
2018 and May 3rd, 2018, among a sample of 595 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of Newfoundland and Labrador.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various sources and random digit dialing. In both cases, respondents
were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.01% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 6.15%, Females: +/- 5.5%,
18-34 age group: +/- 17.6%, 35-49 age group: +/- 9.95%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.69%, 65+
age group: +/- 6.47%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.