Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9992851457
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.9985708024
R^2 ajustado 0.9985311025
Error típico 1.8234677846E-08
Observaciones 38

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 8.36344639198E-12 8.36345E-12
Residuos 36 1.19701251411E-14 3.32503E-16
Total 37 8.37541651712E-12

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 8.9119505079E-05 5.36408872969E-07 166.140997
X -4.2781725607E-08 2.69751429082E-10 -158.596845

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico 1/Y Residuos Residuos estándares

1 4.8395056322E-06 3.73061033566E-08 2.07410819
2 4.7967239066E-06 1.88168063932E-08 1.04615837
3 4.753942181E-06 1.03220260476E-08 0.57387389
4 4.7111604554E-06 7.84628807987E-09 0.43623024
5 4.6683787298E-06 7.70869435719E-09 0.42858044
6 4.6255970042E-06 4.61140151452E-09 0.25638018
7 4.5828152786E-06 3.60433297191E-09 0.20039017
8 0.00000454 4.88334634875E-10 0.02714995
9 4.4972518273E-06 -4.58610413655E-09 -0.25497372
10 4.4544701017E-06 -1.11118115402E-08 -0.61778361
11 4.4116883761E-06 -2.04462693861E-08 -1.13675165
12 4.3689066505E-06 -2.04377464221E-08 -1.1362778
13 4.3261249249E-06 -1.92701348296E-08 -1.07136208
14 4.2833431993E-06 -1.54382711562E-08 -0.85832188
15 4.2405614737E-06 -9.51234275607E-09 -0.52885791
16 4.1977797481E-06 -4.30981946396E-09 -0.23961312
17 0.000004155 3.97134818856E-10 0.02207951
18 4.1122162969E-06 6.33199722113E-09 0.35204018
19 4.0694345713E-06 1.18482575501E-08 0.65872782
20 4.0266528457E-06 1.63321710363E-08 0.90802005
21 3.9838711201E-06 0.000000014 0.77935872
22 3.9410893944E-06 3.79271275196E-09 0.21086353
23 3.8983076688E-06 -5.6515538653E-09 -0.31420956
24 3.8555259432E-06 -1.31405904043E-08 -0.73057767
25 3.8127442176E-06 -1.67558181644E-08 -0.93157356
26 0.00000377 -1.84196700308E-08 -1.02407877
27 3.7271807664E-06 -1.89035207689E-08 -1.05097943
28 3.6843990408E-06 -2.0214248634E-08 -1.12385199
29 3.6416173152E-06 -1.99379424688E-08 -1.10849019
30 3.5988355896E-06 -1.83919726224E-08 -1.02253888
31 3.556053864E-06 -1.50651491101E-08 -0.8375774
32 3.5132721384E-06 -8.66884194169E-09 -0.48196178
33 3.4704904128E-06 -5.45341994544E-10 -0.03031939
34 3.4277086872E-06 9.41430341536E-09 0.52340722
35 3.3849269615E-06 0.000000021 1.16549062
36 3.3421452359E-06 -6.59932381996E-09 -0.36690274
37 3.2993635103E-06 4.33628841677E-08 2.41084715
38 3.2565817847E-06 5.02418458349E-08 2.79329692
 X Gráfico de

Residuos
0.00000006
0.00000004 XC
0.00000002 0.000006

1/Y
0 0.000004
-0.000000021965 1970 1975 19
0.000002
-0.00000004
0
F Valor crítico de F
1965 1970
25152.9593 8.17953E-53

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
1.53862E-53 8.80316E-05 9.02074E-05 8.80316E-05 9.02074E-05
8.17953E-53 -4.3329E-08 -4.2235E-08 -4.3329E-08 -4.2235E-08

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

os estándares Percentil 1/Y

1.31578947 3.30682E-06
3.94736842 3.33555E-06
6.57894737 3.34273E-06
9.21052632 3.40589E-06
11.8421053 3.43712E-06
14.4736842 3.46995E-06
17.1052632 3.5046E-06
19.7368421 3.54099E-06
22.3684211 3.58044E-06
25 3.62168E-06
27.6315789 3.66418E-06
30.2631579 3.70828E-06
32.8947368 3.75154E-06
35.5263158 3.79599E-06
38.1578947 3.84239E-06
40.7894737 3.89266E-06
43.4210526 3.94488E-06
46.0526316 3.99789E-06
48.6842105 4.04299E-06
51.3157895 4.08128E-06
53.9473684 4.11855E-06
56.5789474 4.1554E-06
59.2105263 4.19347E-06
61.8421053 4.23105E-06
64.4736842 4.2679E-06
67.1052632 4.30685E-06
69.7368421 4.34847E-06
72.3684211 4.39124E-06
75 4.44336E-06
77.6315789 4.49267E-06
80.2631579 4.54052E-06
82.8947368 4.58642E-06
85.5263158 4.63021E-06
88.1578947 4.67609E-06
90.7894737 4.71901E-06
93.4210526 4.76426E-06
96.0526316 4.81554E-06
98.6842105 4.87681E-06
 X Gráfico de los residuales
06
04 X Curva de regresión ajustada
02 0.000006
1/Y

0 0.000004
Gráfico de probabilidad normal
021965 1970 1975 0.000006
1980 1985 X 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101/Y
1/Y

0.000002
04 0.000004 Pronóstico 1/Y
0
0.000002
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0 X
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.9963716
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.99275636
R^2 ajustado 0.99255515
Error típico 2561.64932
Observaciones 38

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresión 1 32376343545 3.2376E+10 4933.87846
Residuos 36 236233700.9 6562047.25
Total 37 32612577246

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción -5042627.05 75355.94745 -66.9174395 2.25868E-39
YEAR 2661.82536 37.89529879 70.2415721 3.99475E-40

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico POPULATION

ResiduosResiduos estándares
1 201168.915 3883.08502 1.53676278
2 203830.74 3830.259656 1.51585671
3 206492.566 3403.434293 1.34693707
4 209154.391 2754.608929 1.0901591
5 211816.216 2037.783565 0.80646958
6 214478.042 1494.958201 0.59164198
7 217139.867 895.1328373 0.35425617
8 219801.693 437.3074735 0.17306802
9 222463.518 121.4821096 0.04807754
10 225125.343 -70.3432542 -0.02783892
11 227787.169 -61.168618 -0.02420798
12 230448.994 -482.993982 -0.19114883
13 233110.819 -922.819346 -0.36521333
14 235772.645 -1465.64471 -0.58004093
15 238434.47 -2086.47007 -0.82573767
16 241096.295 -2630.29544 -1.04096102
17 243758.121 -3107.1208 -1.22966857
18 246419.946 -3615.94616 -1.43104039
19 249081.772 -4060.77153 -1.60708368
20 251743.597 -4401.59689 -1.74196812
21 254405.422 -4273.42226 -1.69124195
22 257067.248 -3574.24762 -1.41453785
23 259729.073 -2835.07298 -1.12200341
24 262390.898 -2135.89835 -0.84529931
25 265052.724 -1616.72371 -0.63983169
26 267714.549 -1157.54908 -0.45810955
27 270376.374 -709.374439 -0.28074076
28 273038.2 -126.199803 -0.04994461
29 275700.025 414.9748331 0.1642297
30 278361.851 933.1494693 0.36930157
31 281023.676 1383.324105 0.54746187
32 283685.501 1653.498742 0.65438571
33 286347.327 1841.673378 0.72885736
34 289009.152 1931.848014 0.76454472
35 291670.977 1938.02265 0.76698838
36 294332.803 5468.197286 2.16408398
37 296994.628 2162.371923 0.85577645
38 299656.453 2748.546559 1.08775987
 YEAR Gr

Residuos
10000

5000

0
1965 1970 1975
-5000

Valor crítico de F
3.99475E-40

POPULATION
YEAR Curv
400000
Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0%
300000
-5195456 -4889798.11 -5195456 -4889798.11
200000
2584.97014 2738.68059 2584.97014 2738.68059 100000
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

POPULATION
Percentil POPULATION
1.31578947 205052
3.94736842 207661 Gráfico de
6.57894737 209896 400000
9.21052632 211909 300000
11.8421053 213854 200000
14.4736842 215973 100000
17.1052632 218035 0
0 20
19.7368421 220239
22.3684211 222585
25 225055
27.6315789 227726
30.2631579 229966
32.8947368 232188
35.5263158 234307
38.1578947 236348
40.7894737 238466
43.4210526 240651
46.0526316 242804
48.6842105 245021
51.3157895 247342
53.9473684 250132
56.5789474 253493
59.2105263 256894
61.8421053 260255
64.4736842 263436
67.1052632 266557
69.7368421 269667
72.3684211 272912
75 276115
77.6315789 279295
80.2631579 282407
82.8947368 285339
85.5263158 288189
88.1578947 290941
90.7894737 293609
93.4210526 299157
96.0526316 299801
98.6842105 302405
 YEAR Gráfico de los residuales
0000

5000

0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985YEAR1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-5000

YEAR Curva de regresión ajustada

400000
300000
200000 POPULATION
100000
Pronóstico POPULATION
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
YEAR

Gráfico de probabilidad normal

400000
300000
200000
100000
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 0.9991216193
Coeficiente d 0.9982440101
R^2 ajustado 0.9981952326
Error típico 0.0050221698
Observacione 38

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 0.51617859 0.51617859 20465.2572 3.33066E-51
Residuos 36 0.000908 2.52222E-05
Total 37 0.51708659

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción -8.7104129757 0.14773699 -58.9589172 2.07021E-37 -9.01003748
X 0.0106283452 7.42946E-05 143.056832 3.33066E-51 0.01047767

Análisis de los residuales Resultados de datos de probab

Observación Pronóstico LOG Y ResiduosResiduos estándares Percentil

1 12.2274270501 0.00359183 0.72506098 1.31578947
2 12.2380553952 0.00560683 1.13181466 3.94736842
3 12.2486837404 0.00568371 1.14733441 6.57894737
4 12.2593120856 0.00460013 0.92859937 9.21052632
5 12.2699404308 0.00310839 0.62747056 11.8421053
6 12.280568776 0.0023399 0.47234144 14.4736842
7 12.2911971212 0.00121376 0.24501371 17.1052632
8 12.3018254664 0.00064313 0.12982519 19.7368421
9 12.3124538116 0.00061052 0.12324153 22.3684211
10 12.3230821568 0.00101794 0.20548493 25
11 12.333710502 0.00218793 0.44166342 27.6315789
12 12.3443388472 0.0013479 0.27209283 30.2631579
13 12.3549671923 0.00033547 0.06772022 32.8947368
14 12.3655955375 -0.00120804 -0.24385887 35.5263158
15 12.3762238827 -0.00316331 -0.63855716 38.1578947
16 12.3868522279 -0.00487021 -0.98311787 40.7894737
17 12.3974805731 -0.00637754 -1.2873944 43.4210526
18 12.4081089183 -0.00809911 -1.63491544 46.0526316
19 12.4187372635 -0.00963806 -1.9455751 48.6842105
20 12.4293656087 -0.01083834 -2.18786645 51.3157895
21 12.4399939539 -0.0102499 -2.06908198 53.9473684
22 12.4506222991 -0.00753081 -1.52019732 56.5789474
23 12.4612506443 -0.00483182 -0.97536841 59.2105263
24 12.4718789894 -0.00246179 -0.4969462 61.8421053
25 12.4825073346 -0.0009416 -0.19007514 64.4736842
26 12.4931356798 0.0002077 0.04192781 67.1052632
27 12.503764025 0.00117912 0.23802121 69.7368421
28 12.5143923702 0.00251231 0.50714372 72.3684211
29 12.5250207154 0.00355201 0.71702171 75
30 12.5356490606 0.00437479 0.88311114 77.6315789
31 12.5462774058 0.00482717 0.97442959 80.2631579
32 12.556905751 0.00452748 0.91393286 82.8947368
33 12.5675340962 0.0038377 0.77469185 85.5263158
34 12.5781624413 0.00271334 0.54772386 88.1578947
35 12.5887907865 0.00121344 0.24495002 90.7894737
36 12.5994191317 0.01145507 2.31236247 93.4210526
37 12.6100474769 -0.00132368 -0.26720269 96.0526316
38 12.6206758221 -0.00115336 -0.23282244 98.6842105
 X Gráfico de los residuales

Residuos
0.015
0.01 X Curva de regresión a

LOG Y
0.005 12.8
0 12.6 Gráfico de pro

LOG Y
-0.0051965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 200
12.4 12.8
-0.01 X
-0.015 12.2 12.6
12 12.4
crítico de F
1965 1970 1975
12.2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
12 X
0 20 40

Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
-8.41078847 -9.01003748 -8.41078847
0.01077902 0.01047767 0.01077902

sultados de datos de probabilidad

LOG Y
12.2310189
12.2436622
12.2543674
12.2639122
12.2730488
12.2829087
12.2924109
12.3024686
12.3130643
12.3241001
12.3358984
12.3456868
12.3553027
12.3643875
12.3730606
12.381982
12.391103
12.4000098
12.4090992
12.4185273
12.4297441
12.4430915
12.4564188
12.4694172
12.4815657
12.4933434
12.5049431
12.5169047
12.5285727
12.5400238
12.5511046
12.5614332
12.5713718
12.5808758
12.5900042
12.6087238
12.6108742
12.6195225
os residuales
va de regresión ajustada
Gráfico de probabilidad normal
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
X LOG Y
Pronóstico LOG Y
980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
X
20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
 LINEAL RECIPROCO-LINEAL
X Y
obs YEAR POPULATION y - promedio 1/Y X
1970 1970 205052 2057591672 4.8768117E-06 1970
1971 1971 207661 1827706503 4.8155407E-06 1971
1972 1972 209896 1641601699 4.7642642E-06 1972
1973 1973 211909 1482533698 0.000004719 1973
1974 1974 213854 1336537391 4.6760874E-06 1974
1975 1975 215973 1186091849 4.6302084E-06 1975
1976 1976 218035 1048314435 4.5864196E-06 1976
1977 1977 220239 910451219 4.5405219E-06 1977
1978 1978 222585 774380009 4.4926657E-06 1978
1979 1979 225055 643012149 4.4433583E-06 1979
1980 1980 227726 514685640 4.3912421E-06 1980
1981 1981 229966 418066895 4.3484689E-06 1981
1982 1982 232188 332139115 4.3068548E-06 1982
1983 1983 234307 259393064 4.2679049E-06 1983
1984 1984 236348 197815342 0.000004231 1984
1985 1985 238466 142723264 4.1934699E-06 1985
1986 1986 240651 95290478.6 4.1553952E-06 1986
1987 1987 242804 57892075.4 4.1185483E-06 1987
1988 1988 245021 29070258.6 4.0812828E-06 1988
1989 1989 247342 9429101.52 0.000004043 1989
1990 1990 250132 78783.626 3.9978891E-06 1990
1991 1991 253493 9488345.36 3.9448821E-06 1991
1992 1992 256894 42007454.4 3.8926561E-06 1992
1993 1993 260255 96871180.1 3.8423854E-06 1993
1994 1994 263436 169606754 0.000003796 1994
1995 1995 266557 260638932 3.7515428E-06 1995
1996 1996 269667 370728677 3.7082772E-06 1996
1997 1997 272912 506219211 3.6641848E-06 1997
1998 1998 276115 660609037 3.6216794E-06 1998
1999 1999 279295 834188165 3.5804436E-06 1999
2000 2000 282407 1023636243 0.000003541 2000
2001 2001 285339 1219847535 3.5046033E-06 2001
2002 2002 288189 1427050035 3.4699451E-06 2002
2003 2003 290941 1642544381 3.437123E-06 2003
2004 2004 293609 1865921698 3.4058901E-06 2004
2005 2005 299801 2439205737 3.3355459E-06 2005
2006 2006 299157 2376008322 3.3427264E-06 2006
2007 2007 302405 2703200901 3.3068236E-06 2007

Source: Economic Report of the President, 2008

PROMEDIO= 250412.6842 sct= 32612577246

RECIPROCO-LINEAL LOG - LIN
Z 1/Z
Pronóstico 1/Y RESID^2 LOG Y X Pronóstico LOG Y
4.8395056E-06 206632.676 2498537.07 12.2310189 1970 12.2274270501
4.7967239E-06 208475.622 663609.006 12.2436622 1971 12.2380553952
4.7539422E-06 210351.738 207697.101 12.2543674 1972 12.2486837404
4.7111605E-06 212261.928 124557.967 12.2639122 1973 12.2593120856
4.6683787E-06 214207.128 124699.366 12.2730488 1974 12.2699404308
4.625597E-06 216188.31 46358.4825 12.2829087 1975 12.280568776
4.5828153E-06 218206.482 29406.107 12.2924109 1976 12.2911971212
0.00000454 220262.689 561.184133 12.3024686 1977 12.3018254664
4.4972518E-06 222358.017 51521.1084 12.3130643 1978 12.3124538116
4.4544701E-06 224493.593 315177.328 12.3241001 1979 12.3230821568
4.4116884E-06 226670.588 1113893.67 12.3358984 1980 12.333710502
4.3689067E-06 228890.219 1157304.77 12.3456868 1981 12.3443388472
4.3261249E-06 231153.75 1069672.76 12.3553027 1982 12.3549671923
4.2833432E-06 233462.497 713184.851 12.3643875 1983 12.3655955375
4.2405615E-06 235817.829 281081.406 12.3730606 1984 12.3762238827
4.1977797E-06 238221.169 59942.078 12.381982 1985 12.3868522279
0.000004155 240674.001 529.065728 12.391103 1986 12.3974805731
4.1122163E-06 243177.87 139778.767 12.4000098 1987 12.4081089183
4.0694346E-06 245734.385 508917.573 12.4090992 1988 12.4187372635
4.0266528E-06 248345.223 1006456.94 12.4185273 1989 12.4293656087
3.9838711E-06 251012.136 774639.647 12.4297441 1990 12.4399939539
3.9410894E-06 253736.949 59511.2776 12.4430915 1991 12.4506222991
3.8983077E-06 256521.569 138704.784 12.4564188 1992 12.4612506443
3.8555259E-06 259367.986 786793.315 12.4694172 1993 12.4718789894
3.8127442E-06 262278.281 1340312.85 12.4815657 1994 12.4825073346
0.00000377 265254.628 1696171.72 12.4933434 1995 12.4931356798
3.7271808E-06 268299.303 1870596.39 12.5049431 1996 12.503764025
3.684399E-06 271414.684 2241956.33 12.5169047 1997 12.5143923702
3.6416173E-06 274603.264 2285346.56 12.5285727 1998 12.5250207154
3.5988356E-06 277867.653 2037318.52 12.5400238 1999 12.5356490606
3.5560539E-06 281210.589 1431400.36 12.5511046 2000 12.5462774058
3.5132721E-06 284634.939 495702.211 12.5614332 2001 12.556905751
3.4704904E-06 288143.715 2050.74181 12.5713718 2002 12.5675340962
3.4277087E-06 291740.078 638525.766 12.5808758 2003 12.5781624413
3.384927E-06 295427.349 3306394.37 12.5900042 2004 12.5887907865
3.3421452E-06 299209.02 350440.584 12.6108742 2005 12.5994191317
3.2993635E-06 303088.761 15458748.3 12.6087238 2006 12.6100474769
3.2565818E-06 307070.44 21766326 12.6195225 2007 12.6206758221

SCR= 66793826.3

R^2= 0.9979519
EXP Z
204316.808 540506.83695
206499.939 1348062.9992
208706.396 1415157.19017
210936.43 945893.149824
213190.291 440509.64193
215468.235 254787.761725
217770.519 69950.3136747
220097.403 20049.8270827
222449.149 18455.4377782
224826.024 52429.8699525
227228.296 247708.901765
229656.237 95953.2514935
232110.12 6065.32560713
234590.223 80215.054321
237096.825 560739.497214
239630.211 1355387.99258
242190.667 2370572.99274
244778.48 3898572.27452
247393.945 5630867.24869
250037.356 7264942.61606
252709.012 6640988.61921
255409.214 3671876.47449
258138.268 1548203.7697
260896.483 411499.993858
263684.169 61587.6200903
266501.641 3064.62901789
269349.218 100985.365974
272227.222 468921.409306
275135.977 958486.500371
278075.812 1486419.34174
281047.059 1849438.19921
284050.055 1661379.68513
287085.137 1218513.01041
290152.65 621496.378596
293252.938 126779.87224
296386.354 11659808.27
299553.25 157014.029526
302753.984 121790.130548

SCR= 59385081.4827

r^2= 0.9981790743