KEYSTONE SOS ws Pennsylvania 184" House Distri Polling Results ~ Primary Election document to staff at the conclusion of deliberations, Executive Summary ~ This was requested by RPAC as the trustees weren't sure what to make of this crowded open Dem primary field in a House District that is decided in the Democratic primary. By the standards.of some other primaries we've polled, this one actually has a little more shape to it if for no other reason than that about half the voters we talked to were decided. still plenty of room for variability with 48% undecided, but with more decided voters here, this does clarify who's viable and who has work to do to become viable. ~ Elizabeth Fiedler is not the prohibitive front-runner - we have too many undecideds still left before we can use that adjective. But she's clearly got a jump on her Democratic adversaries by every reasonable ‘measure. 45% total name ID outpaces her opponents. A 15% lead over her closest opponent on the ballot test. And among voters with a definite choice in the race, she has 16% of people definitely for her, and no other opponent has more than 4%, She's better known, she more well-liked, and people who pick her on the ballot test are much more likely to be really into her. Any way you cut it, she’s in a good place and any opponent would have to start running a technically lawless and brutally negative campaign right now to reverse that position, ~ This is the first time in a while we've polled a Dem primary electorate in Pennsylvania and the right/wrong numbers here are FASCINATING, We were expecting wrong direction to win here because of the Trump factor - partisanship explains most of why right/wrong numbers shift over time. But these Democrats were just barely right-side up on that question, and why? Age. Younger Democrats were significantly more optimistic about Pennsylvania's direction than older Democrats, and older Dems significantly more likely to be pessimistic, and that pessimism grew as you went up the age group chain.205] KEYSTONE page p22] ANALYTICS: @sgs i Pennsylvania 184" House District - Primary Election Polling Results CONFIDENTIAL Please return this document to staff at the conclusion of deliberations. Executive Summary ~ This was requested by RPAC as the trustees weren't sure what to make of this crowded open Dem Primary field in a House District that is decided in the Democratic primary. By the standards of some other primaries we've polled, this one actually has a little more shape to it if for no other reason than that about half the voters we talked to were decided. Still plenty of room for variability with 48% undecided, but with more decided voters here, this does clarify who's viable and who has work to do to. become viable. - Elizabeth Fiedler is not the prohibitive front-runner - we have too many undecideds still left before we can use that adjective. But she's clearly got a jump on her Democratic adversaries by every reasonable measure. 45% total name ID outpaces her opponents. A 15% lead over her closest opponent on the ballot test. And among voters with a definite choice in the race, she has 16% of people definitely for her, and no other opponent has more than 4%. She's better known, she more well-liked, and people who pick her on the ballot test are much more likely to be really into her. Any way you cut it, she's in a good place and any opponent would have to start running a technically flawless and brutally negative campaign right now to reverse that position. ~ This is the first time in a while we've polled a Dem primary electorate in Pennsylvania and the right/wrong numbers here are FASCINATING, We were expecting wrong direction to win here because of the Trump factor - partisanship explains most of why right/wrong numbers shift over time. But these Democrats were just barely right-side up on that question, and why? Age. Younger Democrats were significantly more optimistic about Pennsylvania's direction than older Democrats, and older Dems. significantly more likely to be pessimistic, and that pessimism grew as you went up the age group chain. 4 NS & | bas at ee y ae: PacreasatcsnitPA House District 184 Likely 2018 Democrat Primary Election Voters April 3 - 5, 2018 © N = 300 + Margin of Error +/- 5.7% Qh Oe you feel that things in Pennsylvania are headed in the right Girection, or do you feel that things have gotten off track and are headed in ‘the wrong direction? Base.. ag + 300 Right Direction....... 4D © bain 0 we a MAX Wrong Direction... steervene 38% Unsure 7 19% Refused ‘ cones aM Q - "In your opinion, which one of the following issues is the most important issue facing Pennsylvania today, and the issue you feel that elected officials should spend their time working on? Base... Creating jobs and growing our economy . Reducing property taxes........ Improving border security and reducing illegal immigration . Improving infrastructure like roads... Funding public education. Reducing crime..... Addressing the opioid epidemic... Unsure .. Refused..........45 Q3 - Name ID: Tom Wolf Baseisvasueeess Know / Favorable........ Know / Unfavorable Know / No Opinion. Never Heard Of... Refused...PA House District 184 Likely 2018 Democrat Primary Election Voters April 3 - 5, 2018 * N = 300 © Margin of Error +/- 5.7% Q9cat - If the Democrat primary election ¢ Representative were held today, would you vote for Nicholas Didonato Jr, E1TzaI + Rowan or Thomas Wyatt? Base...... Didonato .. Fiedler... Rowan... wyatt... Unsure. Refused..... Q1@ ~ Would you say moderate, or more progressive? Base....... Very Conservative... Somewhat Conservative Moderate ....esecee. Somewhat Progressive Very Progressive .. Unsure .. Refused... Glecat - Would you say most of your political views are more conservative, moderate, or more progressive? Base... Conservative .......eseseseeee Moderate . Progressive . Q11 - Gender Base... Male... Female ..PA House District 184 Likely 2018 Democrat Primary Election Voters April 3 - 5, 2018 » N = 300 Margin of Error +/- 5.7% AGE_CAT 35-49... 50-64... 24% 65 and older 21% WARD PHILA WD @1. PHILA WD 39. PHILA WD 48.. PA House District 184 Likely 2018 Democrat Primary Election Voters April 3 - 5, 2018 * N = 300 » Margin of Error +/- 5.7% Q4 - Name ID: Bill Keller 300 20% Know / Unfavorable . Know / No Opinion. Never Heard Of .. + 24% + 43% Refused... QS - Name ID: Thomas wyatt Base... Know / Favorable Know / Unfavorable Know / No Opinion . Never Heard of = 21% + 67% Refused... Q6 - Name ID: Nicholas Didonato Jr. + 300 know / Favorable .... Know / Unfavorable Know / No Opinion Never Heard Of. Know / Favorable Peeeereeeeey «24% Know / Unfavorable .. 1% Know / No Opinion... seeee 55% 1% Never Heard Of... Refused ....+0+ seeeeePA House District 184 Likely 2018 Democrat Primary Election Voters April 3 - 5, 2018 + N = 308 « Margin of Error +/- 5.7% Q8 - Name ID: Jonathan Rowan Base... Know / Favorable..... Know / Unfavorable... Know / No Opinion Never Heard OF ........ RERUSCT Li reveesccsinnee Q9 - If the Democrat primary election for State Representative were held today, would you vote for Nicholas vidonato Jr, Elizabeth Fiedler, Jonathan Rowan or Thomas Wyatt? Basareeeeeett Didonato / Definitely Didonato / Probably Didonato / Lean. Fiedler / Definitely. Fiedler / Probably .. Fiedler / Lean.. Rowan / Definitely .. Rowan / Probably .. Rowan / Lean..... Wyatt / Definitely.. Wyatt / Probably...... Wyatt / Lean........ 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