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Phase 1 Diagnostic Review Report PDF
Phase 1 Diagnostic Review Report PDF
Phase 1 Diagnostic Review Report PDF
Contents
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 The Project .............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 This Report .............................................................................................................. 4
2. ASSEMBLE DATA, EXISTING STUDIES AND DOCUMENTS .................................. 5
2.1 Administrative Boundaries ................................................................................ 5
2.2 Planning Documentation .................................................................................. 10
2.3 Public Transport Services ................................................................................ 12
2.4 Heavy Goods Vehicles Axle Loading ............................................................ 15
3. TRANSPORT NETWORK INVENTORY & CONDITION SURVEYS ....................... 22
3.1 Road Inventory .................................................................................................... 28
3.2 Road Conditions Surveys ................................................................................. 35
3.3 Road Roughness Surveys ................................................................................ 41
3.4 Major Structures Surveys ................................................................................ 43
4. TRAFFIC AND TRAVEL SURVEYS ............................................................................ 51
4.1 Automatic Traffic Counts.................................................................................. 55
4.2 Manual Classified Counts ................................................................................. 61
4.3 Roadside Interviews........................................................................................... 64
4.4 Public Transport User Interviews .................................................................. 84
5. SOCIO-ECONOMIC REVIEW ....................................................................................... 93
5.1 Population .............................................................................................................. 93
5.3 Employment ........................................................................................................ 103
5.4 Income .................................................................................................................. 106
5.5 Economic Activity .............................................................................................. 108
5.6 Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................. 108
5.7 Vehicles Registered .......................................................................................... 111
5.8 Car Ownership .................................................................................................... 112
5.9 Road Accidents ................................................................................................... 114
6. GIS DATABASE ............................................................................................................ 119
6.1 Introduction......................................................................................................... 119
6.2 GIS Technology Adopted ............................................................................... 119
6.3 GIS Database Design ...................................................................................... 120
6.4 GIS Data Conversion ....................................................................................... 121
6.5 GIS Data Correction and Checking ............................................................ 123
6.6 GIS Data Usage in this Project .................................................................... 124
7. TRAFFIC MODELLING AND FORECASTS .............................................................. 128
7.1 Base Year Traffic Model .................................................................................. 128
7.2 Base Year Transport Networks .................................................................... 129
7.3 Base Year Travel Demand ............................................................................. 137
7.4 Model Calibration and Validation ................................................................ 144
7.5 Base Year Assignment Plots ......................................................................... 148
7.6 Future Year Networks...................................................................................... 152
7.7 Future Year Demand Forecasts ................................................................... 160
8. DEVELOP HIGHWAY SECTOR STRATEGIES ........................................................ 162
8.1 Diagnostic Review ............................................................................................. 162
8.2 Development of Highway Strategies ......................................................... 162
Appendices
Appendix A: Detailed Analysis of Road Conditions Surveys
Appendix B: Detailed Analysis of Road Imperfections
Appendix C: Geo-database for the Kurdistan Highway Master Plan
Appendix D: Detailed Vehicle Trip Matrices by Mode and Purpose
Appendix E: Estimation of Public Transport Services and Passengers at Major Stations
Appendix F: Traffic Accidents in Erbil by Type and Causes
Appendix G: Detailed Surveys of Major Structures
Figures
Figure 1 Governorates of Kurdistan ............................................................................... 2
Figure 2 Sub-Districts (Traffic Zones) of Kurdistan Governorates ............................ 9
Figure 3 Correlation between Axle Load and Pavement Damage .......................... 15
Figure 4 Legal Limits for Commercial Vehicle Weights in Iraq ................................ 20
Figure 5 Primary and Secondary Road Networks in Dohuk ..................................... 25
Figure 6 Primary and Secondary Road Networks in Erbil ........................................ 26
Figure 7 Primary and Secondary Road Networks in Sulaimani Governorate and
Garmian Administration ........................................................................................................ 27
Figure 8 IRI Roughness Scale ...................................................................................... 42
Figure 9 Correlation Between IRI and BIU For Asphalt Concrete Roads .............. 42
Figure 10 Location of Major Structures in Kurdistan Region ...................................... 45
Figure 11 Location of Major Structures in Erbil Governorate ..................................... 46
Figure 12 Location of Major Structures in Dohuk Governorate .................................. 47
Figure 13 Location of Major Structures in Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration......................................................................................................................... 48
Figure 14 Traffic and Travel Survey Locations in Dohuk ............................................ 52
Figure 15 Traffic and Travel Survey Locations in Erbil................................................ 53
Figure 16 Traffic and Travel Survey Locations in Sulaimani Governorate and
Garmian Administration ........................................................................................................ 54
Figure 17 Average Daily Traffic Profile (Both Directions) for Primary Roads .......... 58
Figure 18 Average Daily Traffic Profile (Both Directions) for Secondary Roads ..... 59
Figure 19 Average Daily Traffic Profile (Both Directions) for Additional Sites ......... 59
Figure 20 Average Weekday Traffic per Month and Direction at Location P01 ...... 60
Figure 21 Average Daytime Traffic Composition on Primary Roads ........................ 62
Figure 22 Average Daytime Traffic Composition on Secondary Roads ................... 63
Figure 23 Distribution of Main Origins in Erbil............................................................... 67
Figure 24 Distribution of Main Origins in Dohuk ........................................................... 68
Figure 25 Distribution of Main Origins in Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration......................................................................................................................... 68
Figure 26 Distribution of Main Destinations in Erbil ..................................................... 68
Figure 27 Distribution of Main Destinations in Dohuk.................................................. 69
Figure 28 Distribution of Main Destinations in Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration......................................................................................................................... 69
Figure 29 Distribution of Trip Purpose in Kurdistan ..................................................... 72
Tables
Table 1 Administrative Zones in Erbil Governorate........................................................ 6
1. INTRODUCTION
Dar al-Handasah Shair and Partners have been commissioned to develop the
Highway Master Plan for Kurdistan, a region of Iraq. Kurdistan Region comprises
3 Governorates: Erbil, Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration and
Dohuk, as shown in the illustration overleaf.
The Highway Master Plan will cover all regional primary and secondary roads,
including the major structures such as bridges and culverts. Ultimately, it will
provide a comprehensive investment programme for the highway sector,
including:
Construction of new roads: important missing links which will increase the
efficiency of the road transport network;
Upgrading and improvement of existing roads through their widening,
doubling and/or re-alignment (horizontally and vertically);
Rehabilitation of existing roads and programs of periodic (road
strengthening) road maintenance work; and
Programmes of routine and recurrent road maintenance work.
Project costs;
Before we can determine how the future road network might look like, it is
essential to have a very good understanding of the current conditions. The
analysis is hence based on a comprehensive survey programme, involving:
This report describes the work carried out so far during ―Phase 1: Diagnostics
Review and Strategy Development‖, in the context of the Kurdistan Highway
Master Plan. According to the terms of the contract, Phase 1 covers the following
tasks:
Task 1.1 Assemble Data, Existing Studies and Documents (chapter 2);
Task 1.2 Transport Network Inventory and Condition Surveys (chapter 3);
The following chapters describe the progress achieved so far under each of these
tasks.
A large number of data bases and reports have been collected for the purposes
of this study, including:
Planning documentation.
Most of this information has been presented in the Inception Report, however,
significant new data and information have been collected since the previous
submission, hence the need to revise some of the original premises and include
them in this report again. The socio-economic data collected at this stage of the
project is presented under Task 1.4 Socio-Economic Review (Chapter 5).
The Highway Master Plan, as well as the transport model developed within its
scope, will be carried out at the sub-district level, hence the relevance of data
collection at the same administrative level.
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Kurdistan Region has been allocated nearly US$1000 million (6.3% of the total
budget of Iraq) as part of the proposed projects in the National Development
Strategy 2005-20071. This first National Development Strategy produced by a
democratically elected government of Iraq sets out strategic priorities for Iraq‘s
reconstruction and development. It is established on four major pillars that will
govern strategic public actions for reconstruction and development:
The aim of the KRG‘s strategy2 is to develop Kurdistan‘s economy to the long-
term benefit of the people, by nurturing a new and more innovative private
sector that will produce goods and services in a competitive and sustainable
environment. In order to support a vibrant private sector, the Kurdistan National
Assembly, the Region‘s parliament, passed in 2006 an investment law that is one
of the most investor-friendly in the entire Middle East. This policy is in line with
Iraq‘s Economic Reform Strategy.
The Iraqi transport Master Plan3 was produced as a joint venture between the
Iraqi and Italian Governments, with the aim to identify a plan of infrastructure
investments and maintenance operations for roads, railways, airports, maritime
1
National Development Strategy 2005-2007, June 2005, Republic of Iraq, Iraqi Strategic Review Board, Ministry
of Planning and Development Cooperation
2
http://www.krg.org/articles/detail.asp?lngnr=12&smap=03010800&rnr=145&anr=18617
3
Iraqi Transport Master Plan (ITMP), October 2005, CIITI, Italian Consortium for Iraqi Transport Infrastructure.
and fluvial and intermodal facilities. Although they are mentioned here, railways,
airports, and maritime are not within the scope of the Kurdistan Highway Master
Plan study.
A strategic multi-modal transport model was developed for the whole country
with 91 internal zones, each corresponding to one or more districts, and 43
external zones representing other countries. In Kurdistan Region, there is a
greater level of aggregation with 3 model zones in the Governorate of Dohuk, 4
for Erbil and 5 for Sulaimani. Under this study, the values of time for Iraq were
estimated at US$1.30/hour for employed people and US$0.432/hour for non-
employed people, and at US$2.94/hour for freight vehicles (2004 values).
The main weakness of the road traffic model is that it was calibrated using
counts carried out in 1972, 1978 and 1981, which were then brought up to year
2000 using growth rates.
The passenger and freight forecasts produced in the scope of the Iraqi Transport
Master Plan are summarised in the following table. These national figures can
later be used as a reference for comparison against the regional forecasts to be
produced in the scope of the Kurdistan Highway Master Plan.
International
million pass/year 0.1 5.1 6.5 7.9 4.6 11.7 11.7
-Inbound
% p.a. 92.6% 5.0% 4.0% -10.3% 20.5% 0.0%
million pass/year 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.8 5.8 5.8
-Outbound
% p.a. - 4.9% 3.4% 4.2% 3.9% 0.0%
million tonnes/day 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.6 3.3 4.1
Domestic
% p.a. 7.0% 5.9% 4.6% 5.4% 4.9% 4.4%
International
million tonnes/year 15.8 16 18.6 20.7 23.5 27.5 31.8
Freight
-Inbound
% p.a. 0.2% 3.1% 2.2% 2.6% 3.2% 2.9%
million tonnes/year 0.2 2.7 6 11.4 18.9 28.8 40.6
-Outbound
% p.a. 54.3% 17.3% 13.7% 10.6% 8.8% 7.1%
million tonnes/year 234.9 276.6 307.3 335.1 360.6 383.7 404.6
Transit
% p.a. 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
Source: Iraqi Transport Master Plan, 2005. Average annual growth calculation by the Consultant.
The provision and organization of public transport services varies widely within
Kurdistan. There is no single source of information and the existing information is
not consistent in terms of content and format. Hence, all relevant information
about the public transport routes available and the applicable fares have been
collected by the relevant local authority or at the station. The following tables
summarise the information gathered.
Table 9 Routes and Fares at Dyana (Soran District) Bus Station in Erbil
Available Routes One-Way Fare (ID)
Soran - Akre 10,000
Soran - Erbil 10,000
Soran - Duhok 20,000
Soran - Choman 10,000
Soran - Sulaymaniya 20,000
Soran - Mergasur 6,000
Soran - Shaqlawa 8,000
Soran - khalifan 2,500
Soran - Ranya 10,000
Soran - Harir 5,000
Source: Erbil Transport Directorate
Most of the damage to roads is caused by heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), while
passenger cars do very little damage, if any at all. HGV axle load is a very
important consideration for pavement conditions because the damage caused to
the roads is geometrically proportional (roughly to the 4th power) to the weight
carried by each axle, or combination of axles.
The following figure shows the correlation between axle load and pavement
damage, for single and tandem axle heavy goods vehicles.
9
8
Load Equivalency Factor
7
6
5
4 Single Axle
3 Tandem Axle
2
1
0
0.9 4.5 6.4 8.2 9.1 13.6 15.4 18.1 22.7
Axle Load (Tonnes)
Source: Produced by the Consultant based on Typical Load Equivalency Factors
(http://www.pavementinteractive.org/index.php?title=ESAL)
A sample of axle weight data made available for 129 measurements shows the
average distribution of axle weights for vehicles with different numbers of axles,
as presented in the following table.
By applying load equivalency factors per axle and using an assumption that
approximately half of the HGVs travel empty (i.e. full in one direction and empty
in the other), the ESLA for each 1000 vehicles, for primary and secondary roads
can be calculated, as follows.
Another set of data made available from the Semel Batil Weight Station (289
measurements made between 7 and 14th April 2010) has enabled us to estimate
the average axle load for vehicles with different number of axles, as summarised
in the following table.
Table 15 Average Axle Load for Heavy Vehicles with Different Number of Axles
N. of Axles Average of Axle Weight (kg/axle) N. of Vehicles with same number of Axles
2 13,328 4
3 9,289 130
4 8,784 15
5 8,499 119
6 7,573 21
All vehicles 8,869 289
Source: Data from Semel Batil Weight Station, 2010.
As it can be verified, vehicles with more axles tend to distribute their load more
than vehicles with less axles and therefore presenting a lower average axle
weight. However, since the weight distribution is not homogeneous, this data is
inconclusive in regards to the vehicles causing more damage to pavement
conditions.
Further data collected from a number of weigh stations in Kurdistan have shown
that only a relatively small proportion of all lorries carries weight above the
acceptable level, but in some cases the average additional weight can be
significant (i.e. above 3 tonnes).
Institutional Framework
Legislation in Iraq is applicable whereby no axle carries more than 12 tonnes and
no two axles combined carry more than 18 tonnes, as illustrated below. It is
important to note that in some parts of Kurdistan slightly different limits apply,
for instance, with 13 and 20 tonnes as the limit for single and combined axle
loads.
However, the legislation is incorrectly applied, with fines only being charged in
relation to the total vehicle weight, and not also in relation to individual
maximum axle load weights. For instance, a 4 axle vehicle carrying 36 tonnes in
total, could be less damaging if the distribution is such that no single axle carries
more than 12 and no two nearby axles carry more than 18 tonnes (as shown in
any of the configurations for 4 axles shown above) than if two axles were
carrying 15 tonnes each and the remaining two axles were carrying 3 tonnes
each. Weigh stations are more concerned with collecting total vehicle weights,
and applying fines to vehicles which carry more than the total allowed for
vehicles in each category. In fact, the scales used at some weigh stations are
designed to measure the total vehicle weight and not axle weight. In Erbil, for
instance, the road maintenance directorate (which is responsible for all weight
stations within the Governorate) has stopped working with the axle weight
system in all weight stations due to excessive delays. As a result, actual axle
load data in Kurdistan has been difficult to collect.
Recommendations
All areas in Kurdistan should have the same weight limits, in line with
national legislation in Iraq;
All weigh stations should measure individual axle loads as well as the total
vehicle weight. The weigh stations which already have scales for the entire
vehicle should measure the cumulative weight of each axle, by taking
measures axle by axle. This should not necessarily cause excessive delays
if carried out efficiently;
Weight limits should be per axle as well as per vehicle, so that penalties
are applied to vehicles carrying weights which are above the limits on any
axle or combination of axles or the total vehicle weight.
The ideal solution would be the installation of dynamic axle weigh scales, which
permit weighing the vehicle while in motion, and speeds up the whole process.
There are various systems of different accuracy. At a low level of accuracy,
heavy vehicles can be weighed at high speed as they move along the
carriageway. This is useful for monitoring axle loads on different road sections
but not so useful for catching overloaded offenders, since the lorry drivers tend
to tell each other when the police are having a crack down and avoid that road
section. There are then mobile scales, which use pre-prepared fixed sites but the
actual scales can be moved around so as to cover a large number of sites with a
few scales. This type gives sufficient accuracy for prosecution purposes. There
are also usually a number of fixed sites which can either be used intermittently
to check vehicles that look overloaded or have been chased and caught by police
monitoring a high speed site. Police sometimes also have mobile wheel weighing
scales, which they can use for quick spot checks and direct apparently
overloaded vehicles to fixed stations for accurate weighing. The high accuracy
dynamic scales work by the vehicle driving at a low speed (around 8km/h) over
the scales, when the weight of each individual axle and the total vehicle weight
are printed out.
The length of the total primary and secondary networks, which have been
surveyed in Kurdistan, is approximately 5280km, split as shown in the following
table. This estimate excludes the roads under construction.
The distribution of the length of the surveyed primary and secondary road
networks by Governorate is given in the two tables to follow, by road section.
The following inventory and conditions surveys have been carried out:
Road inventory;
Road conditions;
Major structures.
The main purpose of the road inventory survey was to assess the existing road
network condition in terms of road characteristics such as:
Pavement type;
Junction type;
The Kurdish strategic road network has been surveyed by engineers who were
trained in undertaking key field observations and completing the survey forms.
They were also equipped with a GPS device which has been used to track the
travelled road network and to locate geographically any special features, such as
bridges, culverts, junctions, etc.
The full methodology and survey forms used for the road inventory surveys have
been reported in the ―Survey Data Analysis Report‖.
The following tables show the distributions of key attributes from the road
inventory survey, in terms of the length of the road network with different
characteristics, by road type (i.e. primary and secondary) and Governorate.
Land use: a large part of the land use around the roads surveyed is
vacant, which is what could be expected from inter-urban sites such as the
primary and secondary roads surveyed. The second most common land
use is residential, followed by agriculture.
Road surface: the vast majority of the roads surveyed are asphalted.
Road signs: from the sites where signage has been found, the majority are
in ―good‖ conditions.
Road markings: from the sites where markings have been found, most
have been categorised as ―eroded‖.
Drainage conditions: some 15% of the roads are either blocked, silted or
mostly silted.
Carriageway width: Some 68% of the roads have 1 lane per direction,
while around 12% have 3 lanes or more.
Hard shoulder width: around 51% of the roads have wide hard shoulders,
while around 30% have narrow hard shoulder and 18% have no hard
shoulder.
The conditions of the road network were assessed in conjunction with the road
inventory survey. A sample of 225 m2 of the road was inspected regularly at
approximately every 10km. A range of imperfection types were measured and
assessed according to their severity level:
Rutting: Rut is a surface depression along the wheel paths. The mean rut
depth is calculated by laying a straightedge across the rut and measuring
its depth (measured in area – unit m2).
A number of tools have been used for these measurements, such as a manual
odometer and a three-meter straight-edge and ruler.
4
The Pavement Condition Index is a widely used statistical index between 0 and 100, based on a visual survey of
the pavement, and is used to indicate the condition of roads.
It is important to note that the pavement condition index (PCI) method deals
with surface conditions only. Surface conditions are often symptoms of
underlying problems, while in many cases latent distresses may well be hidden
under the pavement without necessarily showing any visual distress signs on the
surface. There could also be cases of recent pavement maintenance treatments,
such as overlays or other global surfacing solutions, which can hide old distresses
for a certain time, in which case they do not appear in the PCI survey. A more
detailed evaluation campaign would need to include other testing and inspection
methods, such as load deflection testing (falling weight deflectometer) and
laboratory tests on the various pavement layers (CBR, sieve analysis, bitumen
extraction, etc..) in order to properly analyze the pavement‘s structural strength.
In this context, the reported PCI values should be considered for guidance only
and not conclusive information on the conditions of the pavement.
The full methodology and survey forms used for the road condition surveys have
been reported in the ―Survey Data Analysis Report‖. A summary of the results of
the road condition survey is presented in the following table, in terms of the
length of the network considered in excellent, very good, good, fair, poor, very
poor or failed, by Governorate and road type (primary or secondary roads). The
complete analysis of road conditions is presented in Appendix A.
While some 35% of all roads appear to be in ―excellent‖ conditions, this only
means that in all such cases, the survey team found nothing or very little to
measure, leading to PCIs above 85. However, caution needs to be taken when
interpreting these results. Conversely, approximately the same proportion
(almost 34%) of the network is considered to be in poor, very poor or failed
conditions.
The full results from the road imperfection estimates are presented in Appendix
B.
The road roughness surveys have been undertaken continuously throughout the
entire primary and secondary road networks, using a Bump Integrator. A sample
measurement index (IRI) has been derived for each kilometre of road surveyed.
This index provides an indication of how rough or bumpy the road is. The full
methodology and survey forms used for the road roughness surveys have been
reported in the ―Survey Data Analysis Report‖. The IRI roughness scale is shown
in the following illustration.
Bump Integrator counts (in counts/km) have been calibrated against the manual
IRI measures (m/km), and the results of the calibration procedure for asphalt/
concrete roads are illustrated in the following figure.
Figure 9 Correlation Between IRI and BIU For Asphalt Concrete Roads
The following assumptions have been made for categorising IRI measures by
pavement conditions:
A summary of the results from the analysis of the pavement roughness surveys
in the Kurdish primary and secondary transport networks are summarised in the
following table, in terms of the number of IRI measurements under each road
conditions category and for each road type and Governorate.
The results from this analysis indicate that approximately 59% of the primary
road network and 56% of the secondary network is equivalent conditions to
―Older Pavements‖, while 21% of the primary roads and 29% of the secondary
roads are equivalent to ―damaged or unpaved‖ surfaces.
Bridges of one span and more, box culverts of 5 spans and more and pipe
culverts of 15 spans and more have been determined as major structures.
Surveys took place during the period October 2009 until January 2010. The total
number of structures surveyed is 357, as shown in the table below and
illustrated in the following figures. This table also shows the number of structures
which are actually located on the primary and secondary road networks (262),
hence within the scope of this work.
It is important to note that not necessarily all major structures have been
surveyed, and some have even been surveyed outside the primary and
secondary road networks. The lack of an official map of the areas outside the
Kurdistan Region but which are protected by Kurdish troops has limited the
capacity of the survey team to plan the field surveys. In addition, security
concerns have prevented our team from undertaking surveys in regions of
conflict.
These surveys have covered bridges, culverts and tunnels, and included all
relevant items that describe the structures in terms of dimension, location and
condition of the various components of the structure. The assessment of the
condition of each structure were also supported by digital photographs showing
details of relevant components and the articulation of the bridge or culvert, such
as sub and superstructure, support conditions, type of piers, abutments and
deck. Obvious defects were briefly described and shown in the photographs. A
file for each structure was created separately, except for a few adjacent and
connected ones. The bridge, culvert and tunnel reports do not constitute, in any
manner, evaluation reports, but are basically initial survey reports which can be
used as the baseline for any future detailed assessments. No scores could be
given to the conditions of each of the existing structures, as the survey scope
was limited due to its nature, the broad process of gathering data and the limited
resources, access and thorough investigations. Each of the surveyed structures
was given an assessment of their general condition based on the visual
inspection of the accessible parts and based on the experience of the engineers
who have conducted the survey.
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The following tables summarise the type and condition of the structures surveyed
per Governorate.
Our main observations from the undertaking of these surveys are as follows:
95% of all bridges and tunnels currently need some kind of maintenance.
A high percentage of them needs immediate maintenance and/or
rectification.
Many bridges were built without bearings and several have inadequate
bearings.
Bad workmanship was very commonly verified, and this has lead to
honeycombing and segregations.
The full methodology and survey forms used for the major structures surveys
have been reported in the ―Survey Data Analysis Report‖. The complete set of
results from the surveys for all structures (included those outside the scope of
this study) is included in Appendix G, as well as in the GIS database prepared by
Dar Al-Handasah in the scope of this study and submitted to KRG.
A series of traffic and travel surveys were conducted across the whole Kurdistan
region, including:
The three first surveys (ATCs, MCCs and RSIs) were carried out at the same
locations along primary and secondary roads, except for ―Additional Locations‖,
where only ATCs were carried out (the sole purpose of the counts at additional
locations is to calibrate the transport model). The following table summarises the
number and locations of traffic surveys.
The traffic and travel surveys were conducted by Dar al-Handasah staff together
with some 24 local staff recruited from the Ministry of Construction and Housing,
who were trained and supervised by the Consultants. The surveys were carried
out on to typical working days in Kurdistan Region (from Sunday to Thursday). It
should also be noted that all traffic surveys were carried out using hand held GPS
(Global Positioning System) devices to determine geographic coordinates and
referencing points to all survey locations.
Automatic Traffic Counts (ATC) are pneumatic devices which can be installed
along cross sections of roads to measure the number of vehicle axles driving
over it. ATCs are carried out to estimate the profiles of traffic volumes through
the day (including the estimation of the peak traffic) and to allow the estimation
of the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), without the presence of surveyors.
The total daily (24-hour) traffic volumes for all 42 locations, by direction, are
presented in the following table. The table also shows the peak hour traffic, when
it takes place and the percentage they represent over the daily traffic.
The following figures illustrate the average traffic profile by one-hour interval,
over 24 hours, for all primary roads (―P‖ locations), secondary roads (―S‖
locations) and additional (―A‖ locations) ATC sites, for both directions of traffic.
Figure 17 Average Daily Traffic Profile (Both Directions) for Primary Roads
Figure 18 Average Daily Traffic Profile (Both Directions) for Secondary Roads
Figure 19 Average Daily Traffic Profile (Both Directions) for Additional Sites
The average traffic profile for all types of locations are very similar, with one
morning peak (8:00-9:00) and one just as important afternoon peak
(16:00-17:00). The inter-peak traffic volumes are also significant in all
cases;
Figure 20 Average Weekday Traffic per Month and Direction at Location P01
Manual Classified Counts (MCC) were conducted at all ―P‖ and ―S‖ locations (25
in total) using manual counters. Counts of vehicles by category were input into
purposely designed forms. Vehicles have been classified into eight classes that
are commonly used in Kurdistan Region:
Private Cars,
These surveys were undertaken for a period of 12 hours (from 7:30 to 19:30) at
each location, in both directions of traffic. Each location and direction has its own
specific distribution by vehicle category, and this distribution also often varies by
time of the day. The following figures summarise the typical vehicle category
distributions for the primary roads (―P‖ locations) and secondary roads (―S‖
locations) across Kurdistan Region, where surveys have been carried out.
It can be seen that the distributions for primary and secondary roads in
Kurdistan are very similar, but there is a tendency for a lower occurrence of taxis
but more pick-up/van/LGV on secondary roads in comparison to primary roads.
For light goods vehicles, this makes sense since these vehicles tend to operate at
a more local level. However, the higher incidence of taxis on primary roads
appears counter-intuitive. This is a phenomenon particular to Sulaimani
Governorate and Garmian Administration, where a relatively high incidence of
taxis can be found both in primary and secondary roads.
The following table summarises the same results but broken down by
Governorate, so that regional variations can be assessed, as well as vehicle
category distribution for the whole Kurdistan region.
Sulaimani 1
Sulaimani 1
Kurdistan
Kurdistan
Vehicle Category
Dohuk
Dohuk
Erbil
Erbil
Private Cars 41.4% 41.3% 47.0% 34.8% 42.0% 48.4% 38.6% 47.5%
Taxis, Service 12.8% 7.3% 12.0% 16.5% 8.6% 6.1% 8.8% 15.8%
Minibuses (12-14 seats) 2.0% 1.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.5%
Buses (18-24 seats) 1.8% 0.5% 0.7% 3.7% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% 0.9%
Large Buses (44 seats) 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Van, Pick-ups, LGVs 24.2% 18.3% 25.9% 25.1% 29.6% 23.9% 31.8% 31.9%
HGVs 2 axles 7.4% 15.5% 4.0% 7.6% 6.4% 12.1% 4.5% 2.1%
HGVs >2 axles 10.3% 15.8% 8.1% 10.1% 10.6% 8.0% 13.0% 0.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Notes: Totals may not add up due to rounding to one decimal.
1. Denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
Lorries are relatively more common in primary roads in Dohuk and much
less prevalent in secondary roads in Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration;
Taxis and buses are more common in Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration than in the other Governorates, both on primary and
secondary roads, while Dohuk has the lowest incidence of these types of
vehicles.
making within the study area. It was conducted on one direction of traffic,
intercepting as many vehicles as possible (at busy locations representing only a
sample of the total traffic).
In these surveys, a sample of vehicles of all categories were stopped (with the
authority of police officers) and asked to respond to a series of questions about
their journey, vehicle and household.
The results from these surveys have been checked for logic errors and
consistency, before being expanded to reflect the situation for the entire daily
traffic (since only a sample of the total traffic has been stopped for the purposes
of the RSI). This was done using a software called Visual-tm, by firstly expanding
the results for each site to the manual classified count, taking into account the
time of the survey and the vehicle type. The next step was to make this traffic
reflect an average day which was achieved by expanding to the corresponding
daily traffic (from ATCs). The numbers of the field surveys and the expanded
results are summarised in the following table.
Governorate Location No. of Survey Sample Expanded Survey Results Expansion Factor
P10 361 3,003 8.3
P11 528 4,751 9.0
Dohuk S17 467 1,053 2.3
S18 361 3,377 9.4
S19 417 1,929 4.6
Dohuk Total 2,134 14,113 6.6
P01 522 5,057 9.7
P02 428 6,499 15.2
P03 343 4,723 13.8
P04 537 1,709 3.2
P05 185 471 2.5
P06 204 555 2.7
S01 544 3,510 6.5
S02 494 1,617 3.3
Erbil
S03 347 2,156 6.2
S04 342 1,213 3.5
S06 292 1,255 4.3
S07 248 569 2.3
S08 164 626 3.8
S09 237 582 2.5
S10 434 1,488 3.4
S11 358 950 2.7
Erbil Total 5,679 32,981 5.8
P07 339 9,493 28.0
P08 329 1,622 4.9
Sulaimani 1
P09 499 5,525 11.1
S14 345 1,791 5.2
Sulaimani 1 Total 1,512 18,431 12.2
Grand Total 9,325 65,525 7.0
Note: 1. Denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
These adjustments and expansions to the survey results from the RSIs have
been implemented and incorporated into the modelling exercise and GIS
database.
The analysis of RSI data shows the origin/destination pattern of vehicular trips in
Kurdistan and individual Governorates, in terms of whether the trip originates
As it can be seen, the vast majority of surveys have intercepted regional trips
within Kurdistan. The surveys in Dohuk have intercepted the highest percentage
of trips which have either originated and/or are destined to other Iraqi regions or
indeed to other countries (around 23%), whereas it was in Erbil that the largest
proportion of through trips was found (external to external = 0.7%).
The following figures show the distribution of the most popular districts by origins
and destinations, for each Kurdistan Governorate, from the results of the RSIs.
For Erbil, top origins are Erbil Center (72%), Koysnjaq (5%) and Soran
(5%), while top destinations are: Erbil Center (21%), Dashti Hawler
(13%), Khabat (12%) and Shaqlawa (12%).
For Dohuk, top origins are Dohuk Center (41%), Shekhan (17%) and Semel
(14%), while top destinations are Zakho (26%), Dohuk Center (18%) and
Mosel (15%).
Vehicle Occupancy
Vehicle occupancy was measured in terms of the number of people in the vehicle
at the time of the RSI survey. The following table shows the average vehicle
occupancy distribution broken down for each individual Governorate and by
vehicle category.
For Taxis, the distribution is more uniform, with the largest proportion of
vehicles having 1 passenger (22% in Dohuk, 36% in Erbil and 21% in
Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration), but with a significant
proportion carrying 4 or more passengers (some 40% in the whole
Kurdistan).
Trip Purpose
A question in the survey was asked about the purpose of the journey intercepted
by the RSI, and the expected responses were grouped into the following four
categories of journey purpose:
Business;
Work (commuting);
Education;
Shopping/Leisure/Other.
The next figure presents the distribution of trips by purpose and by Governorate,
considering all vehicle categories.
Notes: Totals may not add up due to rounding to the nearest decimal.
Sulaimani denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
Overall, it can be seen that the largest proportion of trips are made for work
purposes, for all Kurdistan regions, while business and shopping/leisure/other
purposes also account for a significant percentage of all trips. The following table
shows the same results as above, but each figure is further broken down by
vehicle category.
more axles
Passenger
Small Bus
(12seats)
Van/Pick
HGV 3 or
24seats)
Bus (18-
up/LGV
HGV 2
Region Trip Purpose
axles
Taxi
Car
All
Vehicles
Business 21% 10% 31% 18% 25% 38% 35% 46%
Work (Commuting) 47% 48% 43% 51% 41% 26% 51% 40%
Kurdistan Education 10% 11% 8% 12% 7% 10% 6% 5%
Shopping/Leisure/Other 22% 31% 19% 19% 27% 26% 8% 8%
All Purposes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Business 20% 6% 28% 14% 22% 26% 35% 55%
Work (Commuting) 53% 55% 49% 56% 63% 74% 60% 39%
Dohuk Education 9% 11% 8% 12% 0% 0% 3% 3%
Shopping/Leisure/Other 18% 29% 15% 18% 15% 0% 2% 2%
All Purposes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Business 18% 9% 28% 15% 28% 13% 31% 47%
Work (Commuting) 48% 48% 41% 53% 42% 28% 54% 40%
Erbil Education 10% 11% 8% 12% 6% 5% 6% 2%
Shopping/Leisure/Other 24% 32% 23% 20% 24% 53% 10% 11%
All Purposes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Business 26% 15% 35% 25% 21% 51% 39% 33%
Work (Commuting) 42% 42% 44% 45% 29% 23% 36% 41%
1
Sulaimani Education 10% 11% 7% 11% 11% 13% 9% 15%
Shopping/Leisure/Other 22% 32% 15% 19% 39% 14% 15% 10%
All Purposes 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding to the nearest decimal on each cell.
1. Denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
The most frequently used vehicle categories for different trip purposes are:
The largest proportion of car trips is made for work purposes, followed by
shopping/leisure/other and business purposes in all Governorates (but
especially in Dohuk where 55% of car trips are for work).
As it could be expected, most HGV trips are carried out for work or
business purposes.
The next figure presents the distribution of the years of vehicle manufacturing for
Kurdistan, considering all vehicle categories, while the following table shows the
same results split for each individual Governorate by vehicle category.
Notes: Totals may not add up due to rounding to the nearest decimal.
Sulaimani denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
The results from the analysis of vehicle age for different vehicle categories in
Kurdistan reveal the following:
For passenger cars, almost 60% of the cars running on the roads of
Kurdistan and its regions are manufactured before the year 1995. This
proportion is slightly higher in Dohuk.
Within the fleet of small buses, there is a trend for newer vehicles,
whereas buses tend to be much older (over half of those vehicles are
manufactured before 1990). Since the count of large bus is very low (or
not applicable as in the case of Dohuk), no conclusion can be drawn from
these results.
The following table summarises the total kilometrage operated by each vehicle
by type of vehicle and Governorate.
It can be seen from the results in the above table that for all vehicles types
(except large buses, but this is due to a small sample size and the fact that these
vehicles have only recently started operation in Kurdistan), the largest proportion
of vehicles has run more than 100,000 km, as indicated in the odometer. The
proportion of low-kilometrage vehicles is relatively small for all vehicle types.
The O-D survey provided information on whether light and heavy goods vehicles
were travelling empty, with half load or full at the time of the survey, as well as
the type of commodity carried. The commodity types were grouped into the
following categories:
Food (processed);
Agricultural produce;
Construction materials;
Fuel;
Water;
Manufactured goods;
Vehicles;
Other.
The following table summarises the distribution of the type of commodity carried
by goods vehicle only, by region.
Over half of the goods vehicles surveyed have declared that they were running
empty. This is because goods vehicles normally travel full in one direction and
empty in the return journey. In addition, as reported above, many light goods
vehicles are used for other purposes than moving goods.
Of those goods vehicles which were transporting goods, the type of goods varied
by region, with ―construction materials‖ having greater prominence, followed by
―food and agricultural produce‖ and ―manufactured goods‖.
Engine Capacity
Within the Passenger Cars and Taxis categories, between 67 and 91% of
the sample have engine capacity between 1500 and 3000 cc. This trend is
particularly accentuated for Dohuk, where there is a large percentage of
vehicles of this size.
The same trend is found for LGV/Pickup/Van, where the largest proportion
of vehicles falls in the category of 1500-3000 cc, and again, this is
particularly the case for Dohuk.
No Response 2% 2% 2% 2%
0 1% 0% 1% 2%
1 70% 77% 71% 63%
2 18% 14% 16% 25%
3 5% 4% 5% 5%
4 1% 1% 2% 1%
5 and more 2% 2% 2% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding to the nearest decimal on each cell.
1. Denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
According to the results from the RSIs, the highest frequencies of response about
average household income levels have concentrated around 250,000 to 750,000
Dinars per month. The average income for Kurdistan is at around 783,000 Dinars
per month, but is highest in Erbil (894,000 Dinars per month), followed by
Dohuk (720,000 Dinars per month) and Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration (633,000 Dinars per month).
The following table summarises the distribution of car ownership in Kurdistan and
its Governorates, from the results of the RSIs. The number of vehicles includes
the sum of cars and pick-ups, but excludes trucks and motorcycles.
The survey results indicate that the vast majority (81-91%) of RSI households
own one vehicle, while very few own three or more. Around 2-7% of the
These interviews were carried sometimes outside and sometimes inside the
vehicle, depending on the vehicle size and public transport station. When
passengers were travelling together (for instance, husband and wife, or siblings,
etc.), only one passenger in the group was interviewed because they would all
provide the same information. The surveyors attempted to interview as many
passengers as possible in each service, and this in many cases reached 100% of
the passengers of taxis, but a smaller percentage in larger vehicles.
A detailed account of the number of surveys carried out at each public transport
station for each route, together with an estimation of public transport services
and daily number of passengers transported on each route and public transport
vehicle size at all these major stations is given in Appendix E. A summary of the
results from the public transport user surveys is presented below.
The analysis of public transport user interview data shows the origin/destination
pattern of public transport trips in Kurdistan and individual Governorates, in
terms of whether the trip originates and/or terminates within or outside
Kurdistan or each individual Governorate, as illustrated in the following table.
As it can be seen from the above table, the surveys have indicated that the
majority of public transport trips (79%) are made within the Kurdistan area, with
a higher proportion for Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration. Only
about 1% of the trips have been found to be through trips in Kurdistan, that is,
trips both originating and destining outside the region. Erbil has a slightly higher
proportion of through trips because of its strategic connections with Turkey and
the rest of Iraq.
Buses and other public transport vehicles do not have specific frequencies in
Kurdistan; instead, they tend to leave the terminal only when full. Thus, as far as
public transport vehicles are concerned, vehicle capacity was measured in terms
of the number of seats in each public transport vehicle surveyed. The next table
presents the average public transport vehicle capacity distribution for the whole
Trip Purpose
The analysis of public transport trip purpose was carried out in the same way as
for the roadside interviews. The next figure presents the distribution of trips by
purpose for the whole of Kurdistan and by Governorate, considering all public
transport vehicle categories.
These results show that public transport in Kurdistan is primarily used for work
purposes (commuting), especially in Erbil, followed by shopping/leisure/other.
There is a relatively low proportion of trips performed by public transport for
business purposes, especially in Erbil. The following table shows the same results
broken down by vehicle category.
Taxis/service is the most popular public transport means, and is used for
journeys of all purposes, although with different frequencies for different
Governorates. Work (commuting) and shopping/leisure/other trips by
taxi/service feature highly in all regions, while business trips by taxi are
more popular in Dohuk and education trips by taxi are more popular in
Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration.
The sample of large bus usage is very low, hence no firm conclusions can
be drawn for this vehicle type at this stage.
The following table shows the distribution of employed people in public transport
user households in Kurdistan and each of its Governorates.
It can be seen that over 91% of the households in the public transport user
survey sample have at least one of household member employed (this figure is
even greater for Erbil at 95%). However, these figures are still lower in
comparison to the results from the roadside interviews, suggesting a slightly
greater incidence of unemployment amongst public transport users.
From these results, it can be seen that almost half of the public transport users
interviewed in Kurdistan do not own a vehicle (this figure is higher for Dohuk and
lower for Erbil) and about 40% own one single vehicle (this figure is again lower
for Dohuk and higher for Erbil). As it could be expected, these results confirm
that public transport user households have a lower level of car ownership
compared to those of car users.
5. SOCIO-ECONOMIC REVIEW
5.1 Population
The most recent Census has been carried out in 1997 by the Ministry of Planning
or the Central Administration for Statistics, and the previous one was in 1987.
However, more recent population estimates, also by district, are available from
various sources. The following table summarises the trends in population growth
by Governorate.
Annual
1 2 3 Growth
Location 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009
2004-
2004-09
06
Dohuk 299,971 472,238 483,106 494,191 616,600 1,176,420 2.3% 20.0%
Erbil 831,169 1,392,093 1,440,590 1,490,695 1,845,200 2,142,685 3.5% 9.0%
4
Sulaimani 555,154 1,715,585 1,773,100 1,832,440 2,159,800 2,000,310 3.3% 3.1%
Kurdistan 1,686,294 3,579,916 3,696,796 3,817,326 4,621,600 5,319,415 3.3% 8.2%
Iraq 27,139,585 27,962,968 28,810,441 27,475,300 3.0%
Compilation from various sources (which may not necessarily be fully compatible):
1. Rapid Assessment Process (RAP)
2. Iraq Living Conditions Survey, 2004 United Nations Development Program and Central
Organization for Statistics and Information Technology, Ministry of Planning and Development
Cooperation, Iraq.
3. Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) www.sigir.mil
Elsewhere: Kurdistan Regional Statistical Office (KRSO) http://www.krso.net
Note: 4. Denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
In the past, the average population growth has taken place at a rate of
approximately 3% per annum for all Kurdistan Governorates. This is in line with
historical annual growth rates reported from various sources in Iraq Living
Conditions Survey, 20045. However, taking into account the latest estimates for
2009, the average annual growth would appear much higher, possibly due to the
fast immigration rates in the region but also possibly due to any changes in the
recording and estimating methods.
5
Part II, Table 24, Page 42.
The first figure below illustrates the sub-district 2009 population distribution in
Kurdistan, the following figure shows the population density distribution
(measured in pop/km2) and the subsequent figure shows the average household
site throughout Kurdistan.
Population forecasts have been prepared by previous studies for Erbil and
Sulaimani, under different growth scenarios, as shown in the following figure.
Sources: 1. Erbil Strategic Master Plan (Dar al-Handasah, 2006). Also reported in Erbil International Airport
Master Plan, by Dar al-Handasah, April 2010. Rebased by Consultant to 2009 population level.
2. Sulaimani Master Plan (IGCO, June 2009).
Average annual growth rates between 2009 and 2030 range from 1.1% to 3.6%
for Erbil and from 1.7% to 2.5% for Sulaimani.
5.3 Employment
The labour force participation rate, given in percentage of the population aged 15
years and above on employment, in 2004, is shown in the following table.
Sulaimani overall rate is boosted by a large proportion of females in the
workforce. The percentage of the economically active population aged 15 years
and above is also shown in this table.
The results from the roadside interviews and public transport surveys were
combined and used in order to derive average levels of unemployment at the
sub-district level. The results from this analysis are show in the following figure.
5.4 Income
Income levels, given in three separate percentile categories (25%, 50% and
75%), are shown in the following tables. The first table shows estimates of
employee income (2004) and the second shows estimates of household income
(2003). These two data sets are not consistent since they have been derived
from different methods.
The results from the roadside interviews and public transport surveys were used
in order to derive average household income at the sub-district level. The results
from this analysis are show in the following figure.
Iraq's economy is dominated by the oil sector, which has traditionally provided
about 95% of foreign exchange earnings. In the 1980s Iraq suffered economic
losses from the war with Iran. After the war ended in 1988, oil exports gradually
increased with the construction of new pipelines and restoration of damaged
facilities.
Estimates of historic and projected real GDP annual growth for Iraq, according to
different international sources, are shown in the following figure. After a sharp
decline in growth in the early 2000s, the economy has quickly recovered with
extremely high records of growth in 2004-05. Since 2006 the economy has
become more stable and the forecast real GDP growth rate for 2009 and 2010
are 6.9% and 6.7%, respectively.
60%
Index Mundi
50%
40%
Central Intelligence
Agency; Global Finance
30%
Business Services
20%
Industry
10%
The Economist
0%
Sources:
Index Mundi: http://www.indexmundi.com/iraq/gdp_real_growth_rate.html\
CIA: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/iz.html
BSI: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb5614/is_200706/ai_n23618989/
The Economist: http://www.economist.com/countries/Iraq/profile.cfm?folder=Profile%2DEconomic%20Data
IMF: http://www.imf.org/external/country/IRQ/index.htm; IMF World Economic Outlook
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/pdf/supptbls.pdf
CBI: Iraq National Development Strategy, quoted from: Central Bank of Iraq, Ministry of Finance.
Long-term GDP forecasts have been made by two different set of professionals,
CPA consultants and the ITMP consultants, considering real GDP growth, oil GDP
growth and non-oil GDP growth. The results are summarised in the following
figure. While the ITMP forecasts are considerably higher than those by CPA, both
agreed that oil GDP growth will be virtually nil after 2016.
The following table shows the non-oil GDP projections per Governorate.
Average Annual
Governorate 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Growth 2005-09
Erbil
Motorcycles 5,422 5,431 5,049 5,049 5,439 0%
Private cars 97,864 101,301 102,655 113,005 129,000 7%
Taxis 22,933 23,350 23,333 23,333 23,333 0%
Goods vehicles 40,808 48,420 48,535 61,199 66,122 13%
Farm & constr. vehicles 4,207 4,462 4,732 5,082 5,788 8%
Dohuk
Motorcycles
Private cars 47,825 49,876 50,014 51,365 53,615 3%
Taxis 10,425 11,044 11,112 11,112 11,012 1%
Goods vehicles 17,000 19,080 19,914 23,833 24,361 9%
Farm & constr. vehicles 2,719 2,763 2,763 2,763 3,000 2%
Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
Motorcycles - - - - -
Private cars 37,185 37,094 37,174 40,307 50,808 8%
Taxis 15,262 15,735 15,961 16,120 17,624 4%
Goods vehicles 20,356 21,647 22,597 28,745 36,157 15%
Government vehicles 3,491 4,398 5,324 6,369 7,122 20%
Agriculture vehicles 4,348 4,486 4,674 4,761 4,890 3%
Kurdistan
Private cars 182,874 188,271 189,843 204,677 233,423 6.3%
Taxis 48,620 50,129 50,406 50,565 51,969 1.7%
Goods vehicles 78,164 89,147 91,046 113,777 126,640 12.8%
Government vehicles 3,491 4,398 5,324 6,369 7,122 19.5%
Farm/constr./agric. vehicles 11,274 11,711 12,169 12,606 13,678 5.0%
Source: Traffic Police Directorates
A steady growth in the number of private vehicles can be verified, but the largest
growth is accounted for by the increases in the number of goods vehicles and
Government vehicles in Sulaimani Government and Garmian Administraiton.
The results from the roadside interviews and public transport surveys were used
in order to derive average car ownership levers for each sub-district. The results
from this analysis are show in the following figure.
The available data for road accidents in Kurdistan region is presented by the
annual number of fatalities, injuries and traffic accidents. The following table
shows the accident data available for different years and for the three
Governorates of Kurdistan (Dohuk, Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian
Administration and Erbil).
Not all statistical data presented above is necessarily consistent, in part, due to
the different methods for data collection, aggregation and analysis used by
different authorities and at different times. In general, the numbers of accidents,
fatalities and injuries have increased in recent years. In Dohuk and Erbil, this
increase has been much greater than the equivalent growth in the number of
vehicle registrations for the same period, but the trend is somehow unclear in
Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration.
An additional analysis was carried out for road traffic accidents with information
on the location of the accident, type of accident (fatality, injury) and cause. This
will help to determine accident blackspots, and be considered in the proposals for
road upgrades in the master plan. The following figures show:
If further information becomes available at a later stage, this will be used in the
master plan as a indication of the locations which may need to be upgraded or
improved in order to address any safety concerns.
6. GIS DATABASE
6.1 Introduction
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was used in the Highway Master Plan for
Kurdistan to assist in the preparation of a comprehensive database of primary
and secondary roads. GIS acts as a Management Information System which can
be best described as a system to store data and deliver reliable data, in an
efficient manner to the required design and planning processes. Ultimately, GIS
will be a tool at the Ministry of Housing and Construction to manage, maintain
and update the database. Accordingly, the main objectives of implementing the
state-of-the-art GIS technologies in this project are:
The GIS scope of work for this project has been listed hereafter in this document
and is based on the Consultants previous experience in similar projects.
The most recent technology and GIS software have been used in order to design
the database structure and develop the system. The development process was
based on ESRI6 products, which have been designed using object-oriented
technology. ArcGIS 9.3.1 was the main GIS software used to perform the
required analysis and queries. Final output data is in the form of ESRI Personal
Geo-database data format. The Geo-database data model is an intelligent format
for data storage where the user can simulate real objects using his data.
Accordingly, and for the Ministry of Housing and Construction to be able to make
use of the submitted Geo-database, the following minimum requirements in
terms of software and hardware shall be available:
6
ESRI: Environmental Systems Research Institute
The process of GIS development borrows from the more established Database
Management practice. The major difference between the two is the presence of a
spatial (geographical) component in the GIS. Moreover and with the new Geo-
database format, even spatial data are now being stored as tabular databases.
The GIS database design for this project started with the logical system design
followed by developing the physical components of the Geo-database and the
data structure. Besides, and as part of this project, all geographic data have
been converted into GIS layers. One Personal Geo-database ‗Kurdistan
Highway Master Plan.mdb’ has been created and delivered for this purpose.
The data layers generated in this project are related to the following themes:
Environment (rivers);
Traffic survey.
Tables are also provided in the database. They provide additional information on
the roads identification, roads characteristics, roads conditions, traffic survey
results, sub-districts characteristics, and major structure identification
information and main characteristics.
Geo-database Overview
This report defines the ArcGIS Geo-database elements that are used in the
Highway Master Plan for Kurdistan. The next paragraphs define and describe
these elements in general, followed by detailed diagrams (presented in Appendix
C) that will make easier the understanding of the current Geo-database.
Objects/Tables
Features Classes
Features are geographic objects that have a spatial location defined. More
specifically, a feature is just like an object but it also has a geometry or shape
column in the relational database table for the object. Through inheritance, a
feature has all of the methods of the Object class, but it also has more methods.
In other words, a feature is a special kind of object with additional capabilities.
A Feature Class can be a point, polyline or polygon and it has many fields
(columns) and many attributes (rows).
Feature Datasets
Also, we can group the Feature Classes on the base of the different themes that
they represent, for example the Roads and Structures are located in the Feature
Dataset Transportation.
The process involves the conversion of data in excel and GPS formats into the
proper GIS format, and projection to the target coordinate system. This was
Data collected for the various sectors under study in this project were in the form
of:
Excel Spreadsheets;
GPS files;
Site Photos.
Spreadsheets
The main form of data is Excel spreadsheets. Two types of data are included. The
first is related to information with (x,y) coordinates that would directly be
converted to a GIS layer; this applies to the structures survey. The second type
is related to attribute/descriptive data with a unique key identifier that will link
with the existing GIS roads layer. Users can at any one time, view the roads
geometry and retrieve all the related information in GIS, thanks to the Dynamic
Segmentation technique (as illustrated in the following figure).
GPS Files
The roads tracks, the traffic survey location, the structures location were all
surveyed using GPS. GPS files were converted to GIS layers using Map source,
Google Earth and XTools Pro-an extension for ArcGIS. The output layers are
either polylines (for roads) or points (for superstructures and traffic survey
locations).
Another source of data is site photos taken for roads, structures and traffic
locations. More than 5500 photos were acquired. They were all renamed and
indexed in order to link them with the already converted GIS features. This was
done by providing a unique ID to both sets of data. While some images were
extracted from excel spreadsheets, others were provided as standalone images.
Moreover charts showing results of traffic flows were generated and indexed to
be linked with survey traffic locations.
Based on the converted Roads layer from GPS tracks, a topology check was
performed using advanced geo-processing tools. Errors such as self intersecting,
overlapping, or non connected roads were easily spotted and underwent
immediate correction.
The GIS data was used in this project mainly to conduct queries, spatial analysis
and photo browsing as well as for map production.
The GIS analytical power is crucial in this project to assess the existing
conditions of roads and superstructures. End users can spatially select
road(s)/superstructure(s) directly on the screen and retrieve their information.
Based on a selected layer, they will be capable of doing any of the following
listed types of analysis (as illustrated in the following figure):
Query and identify whole, or parts of surveyed roads that have been
dynamically segmented to reflect survey data taken at given intervals.
A GIS Desktop Application was developed to allow easy and intuitive retrieval of
site photos taken for roads and structures, as well as specific traffic data graphs.
The application was coded as a toolbar (see next figure) in an ArcGIS Desktop
9.3.1 Map Document.
Functionalities include the ability to query selected features for photos and
graphs meeting a number of criteria, based on the collected survey data sheets
(see following figure).
Map Production
One of the main outputs of utilizing GIS in this project is map production.
Various thematic and composite maps of different sizes and scales were
produced using the GIS cartographic power, as illustrated in the following figure.
The initial task under traffic modelling was to build a 24-hour base year model
which can be used to produce a diagnostic on the current traffic demand
situation in Kurdistan. This model will be a platform to forecast traffic flow in the
future, taking into account planned changes in the networks and the expected
growth in demand. The following figure shows the structure and methodology
deployed for producing the observed base year model.
As can be seen from this figure, the supply (highway and public transport
network) and demand (Annual Average Weekday Traffic) aspects of the base
year traffic model have been produced through an iterative process until a final
model that fulfils the validation criteria had been achieved. A number of software
tools have been used for the purposes of building the traffic model, including:
EMME (using the latest software, EMME/3 for trip distribution and
assignment modelling 8.
The base year traffic model consists of 151 traffic zones; 138 in the Kurdistan
region, representing 137 sub-districts (see Figure 2 and Table 1 to Table 3) plus
one further zone (sub-district 100 which has been split into two), and 13 external
zones representing neighbouring regions or countries.
The base year highway network has been produced using the results from the
road inventory surveys, which have been coded using GIS. These data have been
converted into a representation of the network suitable for the traffic model built
in the ―EMME‖ software. EMME is a French-English acronym for Equilibre
Multimodal / Multimodal Equilibrium. It is a complete travel demand forecasting
system for urban, regional and national transportation planning.
The hierarchy for the base year highway road network in Kurdistan is classified
into:
Primary Roads,
Tertiary Roads.
At present, at the top of the road hierarchy in Kurdistan are Primary roads.
These are defined officially in the Highway Standards as highways of
―international importance and are the main highways connecting cities. They are
to be designed to the highest standards‖. Primary roads usually carry large
volumes of traffic and are often divided into major and minor arterials.
Secondary roads are in second place in the road hierarchy. They are defined
officially as ―highways connecting major cities of economic or other importance...
7
http://www.peter-davidson.com/software/walkmxbuild.htm
8
http://www.inro.ca/en/products/EMME/index.php
The last in the road hierarchy are the Tertiary roads, which are defined as
―highways of district and local importance‖. These roads carry local traffic and
link development units with the Secondary roads.
The surveyed attributes of the Kurdish road network have been exported to the
EMME transport modelling software platform. The following figure illustrates the
GIS road database as depicted in EMME.
generalised travel cost) on each link of the highway network (representing the
effects of congestion).
The attributes from the field surveys used in the VDF of the model include:
Since all these attributes affect traffic speeds, they were combined to produce 13
different speed categories into the model, and each of these categories was
assigned a unique volume-delay function. For instance, a primary road with 3
lanes on a flat paved terrain has a VDF representing a much larger capacity and
higher speed than an unpaved secondary road on a mountainous terrain.
Large bus: it includes all large buses with a seated capacity between 25
and 44. An average seated capacity of 31 has been assumed.
Minibus: it includes small buses with seated capacity between 8 and 24.
An average capacity of 21 has been assumed (over 14 hours).
Taxi: seated capacity between 4 and 5.
Default speeds for the three public transport modes are as follows:
summarises the results from the surveys at major public transport stations in
terms of the number of services and estimated daily passengers for each route
and public transport vehicle type.
For the production of the base year demand matrices, the following steps have
been taken:
The first step has produced pre-validated observed AAWDT vehicular traffic, and
in the second step, the pre-validated person trips have been produced. As these
matrices represent the fully observed elements of the overall travel pattern of
the study area and there are cells in the matrix that had not been observed
(intercepted) to be accounted for, these matrices have then been subjected to
further infilling using direct demand modelling techniques.
The building of the observed trip matrices from the results of the
expanded RSIs;
The extensive data processing required to convert results for the RSI into
usable model inputs;
The coded and cleaned RSI survey records had to undergo a range of additional
checks before they became suitable for use in matrix building, including:
Missing Data Checks – when processing the roadside interview data there
are a certain number of fields that have to be present if the interview
record is to be suitable for building matrices. These fields include: origin
zone, destination zone, origin purpose, destination purpose, vehicle type
and time of the interview. Where this data is missing, the record can either
be excluded or inferred from other sources (the method used depends
upon the quality of the data, the sample rate, etc.)
Range and Logic Checks – these include checking the RSI data for range
errors or illogical data. For example, if on the RSI form for a particular
question there are 8 choices and the data includes a 9 then this would
need to be identified in the range checks. Logic checks include, for
example, looking at the origin and destination information. If a traveller is
moving from zone ―a‖ to zone ―b‖ and yet their origin purpose is home and
the destination purpose is also home this could be illogical and therefore
would need to be identified during the logic checking process. Again
whether to exclude these records or infer data from others are decided
during the data checking process.
Data Processing
Data processing tasks have been undertaken using the survey results in Excel
spreadsheet and involve the following:
Formatting: In order for the data from the RSI, MCC and ATC surveys to
be useable in the ERICA software, it is important that it is in the required
format. This requires all the data to be stored in Excel spreadsheets with
named ranges applied and the correct column headers and data formats to
be used. Some preliminary data formatting has been required.
Data Mining: The RSI and public transport survey questionnaires include
questions on the socio-economic status of the interviewee‘s household.
Because not a great deal of socio-economic data is available at the sub-
district level in Kurdistan, data such as car ownership, employment,
household size and income have been extracted from the surveys for each
model zone based on the interviewed populous of that zone. Simple data
mining techniques have been used for this purpose.
Transposing: Since the RSI and public transport surveys have been
conducted in one direction of travel, these results needed to be transposed
to form an estimate of the pattern of movement in both directions.
Once the data has been expanded to reflect the required representation of travel,
it was then ready for building into trip matrices. ERICA software has been used
for this process.
Defining which screenlines are used to estimate demand for which sector
to sector movements.
The definition of these three tasks specifies all the parameters required for
building matrices in ERICA. It is usual that many quality checks are undertaken
to ensure that the best specification has been defined. Issues identified include:
Expansion Factor Size – This check aims to identify any particularly high or
low expansion factors.
Individual RSI Site builds – This check aims to identify the proportion of
movements within an RSI site that are being written to the trip matrix.
The results from the public transport surveys have been built into trip matrices
using a simpler method where an assumption has been made that no traveller
will be picked up at more than one survey location. ERICA was then used to
tabulate the expansion factors at each of the survey locations to the required
market segmentation split.
The following table shows the total RSI records and the number and percentage
of records rejected at each RSI site, for the reasons highlighted above.
As can be seen, out of the original 9,325 RSI records, only about 4% (379
records) were deemed unsuitable for further data analysis and thus rejected.
The largest number of records rejected was at survey station S04 (in Erbil) with
32%.
A comparison between the accepted RSI records, the MCCs and the AAWDT is
shown in the following table, together with the average expansion factor for each
survey station. Similar expansion factors have been produced for the transposed
RSI records (but this task in not reported here due to its repetitive nature).
Table 78 Accepted RSI Records, Counts and AAWDT per Survey Station
Accepted RSI MCC Counts AAWDT Traffic Average Expansion
RSI Number Records (Vehicles) (Vehicles) Factor 1
Dohuk H10 346 3115 7,092 20
Dohuk H11 519 4909 11,695 23
Dohuk S17 443 1073 2,226 5
Dohuk S18 360 3475 6,815 19
Dohuk S19 391 2024 4,148 11
Erbil H1 512 5060 9,087 18
Erbil H2 424 6501 10,832 26
Erbil H3 334 4728 9,036 27
Erbil H4 506 1712 2,993 6
Erbil H5 181 472 1,480 8
Erbil H6 202 563 1,366 7
Erbil S1 536 3514 5,705 11
Erbil S2 488 1624 3,383 7
Erbil S3 340 2231 6,488 19
Erbil S4 234 1214 2,834 12
Erbil S6 277 1257 3,141 11
Erbil S7 245 605 1,441 6
Erbil S8 163 627 1,439 9
Erbil S9 218 584 1,332 6
Erbil S10 417 1751 3,353 8
Erbil S11 356 952 1,458 4
Sulaimani 2 H7 303 9495 16,057 53
Sulaimani 2 H8 321 1675 3,452 11
Sulaimani 2 H9 489 5528 8,927 18
Sulaimani 2 S14 341 1792 2,825 8
Total 8,946 66,481 128,605 -
Notes: 1. Expansion factors produced by vehicle type and by direction
2. Denotes: Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration
There are a number of options available for the demand model, but the Direct
Demand Model has been selected as the most appropriate method for the
purposes of this project. It estimates a relationship between a range of attributes
of a zone (such as population, number of jobs, car ownership, etc.) and
attributes about travelling between these zones (e.g. travel times, distances and
Once the demand model has been used to smooth the matrix and synthesize
unobserved movements, a range of simple checks (including matrix totals check,
sector to sector checks and assigned flow checks) has been required to ensure
the model is functioning properly.
Using only the results from the roadside interviews, it is inevitable that some
movements will not be observed and need to be in-filled. The following figure
illustrates and the infilling of the observed demand using Direct Demand
Modelling. This technique estimates a relationship between a range of attributes
of a zone such as GDP, population, number of jobs, etc. and attributes about
travelling between these zones (e.g. travel time and distance) and uses these
relationships to estimate unobserved movements. The most important variables
utilised in the Direct Demand Model are: population, household income,
household structure and vehicle availability.
The adequacy of a base year model depends on how well it replicates the
existing traffic conditions (in this case, at all primary and secondary road
locations). Model calibration is the process of ensuring that the model can
reproduce the results of counts throughout the study area. At this stage of
reporting, the model calibration is presented for the observed element of the
vehicular trips and the calibration of the whole matrix including the un-observed
cells will be reported in Phase 2 Report.
Once the model has been calibrated, an additional process is required to test the
adequacy of the model: assignment model validation. Model validation consists
of ensuring that modelled base year traffic volumes assigned onto the network
can also represent with a reasonable level of accuracy the traffic observed at
independent locations (i.e. counts at additional locations, which have not been
utilised as part of the matrix building process).
The results from the RSI and Public transport surveys were expanded to daily
flows and this enabled trip matrices by mode and journey purpose to be
produced. The summary of the daily vehicle trips by mode and purpose (in terms
of the AADWT) is presented below, whereas the full matrices are given in
Appendix D.
The final observed trip matrices assigned to the highway network have been
aggregated into seven sectors, according to urban and rural areas in each
Governorate, and these are shown in the following table and illustrated in the
following figure.
The assignment of the observed trip matrices to the network has been calibrated
for three cordons representing the Kurdistan major urban areas, as shown in the
following figures.
The total modelled flows crossing each cordon have been compared with the
observed traffic counts, and the results are shown in the following table for each
direction of traffic.
As can be seen, apart from one location (Dohuk Cordon) where the percentage
difference is 17%, the rest of the cordon flows are well within the acceptable
level for matrix validation.
The EMME/3 base year observed AAWDT results are shown in the following figure
for the whole network (the thickness of the line represents the amount of daily
traffic on each link). Detailed base year model observed traffic flow patterns for
each Kurdistan region are presented in the subsequent figures.
From the above base year model results for the observed elements of the matrix,
the following observations can be made:
The observed base year average weekday traffic generated and attracted
to Kurdistan is estimated at approximately 205,000 vehicles;
Internal traffic (traffic to/from Kurdistan Regions) accounts for some 90%
of the total observed vehicular traffic;
The second largest base year observed traffic is from Sulaimani urban
sector, generating around 46,000 average weekday vehicular traffic; the
Sulaimani ―Urban-to-urban‖ traffic accounts for about 59% of this traffic;
Dohuk urban sector generates around 27,000 vehicles per day; its ―Urban-
to-urban‖ movements account for some 70% of this traffic.
The future year road network has been developed taking into account the
existing plans for road improvements, upgrades, widening and new roads, for
different time horizons. For the purposes of the modelling of future year
networks, the following has been assumed:
2020 – this time horizon takes into account all short-term schemes which
are not part of the base year network, including on-going projects and
those planned for this and next years;
2030 – this long-term horizon takes into account strategic projects which
have been proposed by different authorities, and which are in early stages
of concept and/or planning.
The following figures show the proposed road plans for 2020 and 2030 according
to road hierarchy (primary or secondary) and to the intervention type (new road
or upgraded), for each Governorate.
Figure 68 Future Road Plans for Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration 2020 Horizon
Figure 69 Future Road Plans for Sulaimani Governorate and Garmian Administration 2030 Horizon
The existing rail network does not serve any part of Kurdistan. The re-
instatement of the railway connecting Erbil to Kirkuk and the rest of Iraq is part
of the national transport master plan, supported by the Central Iraqi
Government. In addition, this line will be extended westwards to Dohuk and the
border with Turkey and eastwards to Sulaimani. An additional rail line is
proposed by the KRG, connecting Erbil, Sulaimani and the border with Iran. The
proposed railway plans are summarized in the following figure.
For the purposes of this study, the following timescales for implementation have
been assumed:
A trip growth model will be produced to estimate changes in travel in the future
as a result of changes in population, car ownership and wealth. The provisional
growth figures are:
New developments will produce demand additional to what has been considered
as part of the natural population and economic growth of the region. The
following key new developments have been identified and estimates have been
made for the levels of demand expected from them:
Erbil airport expansion (Ankawa sub-district9, Zone 3). The key demand
assumptions (Erbil International Airport Master Plan, Aviation Demand
Forecast Report, Dar Al-Handasah, April 2010) for the Base Case are
summarized in the following table.
9
The airport extends over 4 modelling zones, but additional trips have been allocated to Ankawa.
This report sets out a review of the existing diagnostic of problems associated
with the highway sector in Kurdistan. This diagnostic work will continue to be
developed as further analysis is made of the assembled road network data and
the dynamics of the transport demand, both in terms of passengers and freight,
is modelled. However, certain key observations may be made from the current
review, which would include:
The vehicle fleet is quite aged, with more than 40% of vehicles being
more than 15 years old, in particular for buses and goods vehicles;
As noted above, in the coming weeks further analysis will be made of the
assembled data and further diagnostic conclusions will be reached. These
analyses will also include projections of existing trends under different road
maintenance and traffic control and safety interventions, leading to a future Road
Sector Strategy to be developed and agreed.
In order to estimate future maintenance and construction costs, unit cost rates
(per km) will be applied. The following table summarises average cost rates for
different types of projects, compiled from a range of actual projects implemented
as well as on-going or proposed schemes in each of the Kurdish Governorates.
This table also shows the standard deviation around the average costs. As it can
be seen, there is a wide variation around the averages, and this is due to a
number of reasons, including the wide variation on the specific type of project,
their location, the terrain, specifications, the inclusion of street furniture, signing,
markings, etc.
Maintenance Strategy
140
124
120
100 91
80
Costs
80 User Costs
Maintenance Costs
60
Construction Costs
40
20 2 1 0
18 18 18
0
Well Maintained (R = Poorly Maintained (R = Zero Maintenance (R =
2.5m/km IRI) 4.0m/km IRI) 10.0m/km IRI)
Sources: World Bank HDM Analysis.
One key decision will concern the type and extent of road maintenance work to
be contracted out and that to be undertaken in-house (Force-Account). For
contracted-out maintenance work, various means of creating efficiency and
driving down unit costs, such as introducing Term Contracts, will need to be
investigated and agreed with the Client.
Investment Strategy
Design-Build-Operate-Maintain (DBOM);
Design-Build-Operate-Transfer (DBOT);
Design-Build-Finance-Operate (DBFO);
Design-Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT);
The private sector could participate in many different aspects of the delivery of
highway infrastructure, as shown in the illustration below.
The main benefit from the participation of the private sector would be a reduced
need for investment by the public sector, freeing up resources for other aspects
of the transport strategy. There are different ways to promote schemes and
attract international investment (funding and delivery), and this will have to be
considered in due course.
Each new proposed scheme identified will later need to be assessed in more
detailed in terms of design and feasibility before implementation.
These benefits need to be quantified and compared, by road section or link, with
the anticipated life cycle costings (investment costs and annual maintenance
costs) of the same link. If benefits to a country as a whole are to be considered,
then the higher the benefit/cost ratio for a particular section, the higher priority
the road section should be given in the overall road investment programme. It
should be noted that the magnitude of economic benefits often reflect traffic
volumes, i.e. improvements to highly trafficked roads generally tend to lead to
greater economic benefits than improvements to roads with low traffic volumes.
The most appropriate approach for estimating and comparing road user benefits
and investment costs is through the use of the World Bank‘s Highway Design and
Maintenance IV model, which has been widely used throughout the developing
world. Using this model, the Consultants will prepare vehicle operating costs for
traffic volumes for road conditions in the ―with‖ and ―without‖ the
implementation of the Master Plan over an evaluation period of 20 years. This is
compared to investment and maintenance costs, enabling a ranking of
investment. In addition to this, a multi-criteria analysis will be undertaken to
ensure that other important factors are considered, such as access to developing
areas and links that could promote tourism and environmental impacts.
In order to implement the above Strategies that are to be developed and agreed
with the Client, it is likely that a series of associated policy and regulatory
measures will need to be taken. The general approach adopted would be that of
the ―carrot and stick‖, whereby the required road user behaviour would be
encouraged and adverse behaviour would be penalised. The various associated
measures are likely to include:
A system of Road User Charges that encourages fleet renewal and the
use of less damaging axle configurations for HGVs, and favours the use
of busses for public transport against smaller inter-urban taxi and
minibus services;
Laws concerning axle load controls for different vehicle types and the
enforcement of these controls via axle weigh-stations.
As noted at the outset of this Chapter, our work on Highway Sector Strategies is
ongoing and will be developed, progressed and discussed with the Client over the
next few weeks.
A number of areas have been identified as requiring further work after the
completion of this master plan, such as: