May 14th 2018 www.tooclosetocall.

ca

OLP PC NDP Green

% 24.6 40.5 28.8 4.8
seats 14 77 33 0
chances of winning* 0.1% 99.8% 0.1% 0.0%
chances of a majority 0.0% 89.8% 0.0% 0.0% Probability to win the riding

OLP PC NDP Green OLP PC NDP Green

Ajax 37.1% 37.8% 22.0% 3.0% 41.12% 58.53% 0.35% 0.00%
Algoma—Manitoulin 6.1% 30.0% 60.8% 3.1% 0.00% 0.07% 99.93% 0.00%
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 32.5% 47.7% 16.2% 3.6% 3.54% 96.44% 0.02% 0.00%
Barrie—Innisfil 23.7% 48.8% 21.7% 5.7% 0.24% 99.64% 0.12% 0.00%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 24.0% 48.3% 20.9% 6.8% 0.21% 99.73% 0.06% 0.00%
Bay of Quinte 21.2% 51.7% 22.1% 5.0% 0.06% 99.87% 0.07% 0.00%
Beaches—East York 26.5% 23.3% 44.8% 5.4% 2.05% 0.91% 97.04% 0.00%
Brampton Centre 25.5% 34.4% 34.1% 5.9% 4.73% 57.02% 38.25% 0.00%
Brampton East 19.6% 23.7% 54.8% 1.9% 0.00% 0.01% 99.99% 0.00%
Brampton North 26.8% 33.4% 36.4% 3.4% 6.23% 41.61% 52.16% 0.00%
Brampton South 31.9% 36.5% 28.4% 3.2% 22.49% 69.84% 7.67% 0.00%
Brampton West 32.7% 32.4% 32.5% 2.4% 33.24% 40.12% 26.64% 0.00%
Brantford—Brant 19.8% 40.8% 35.4% 4.0% 0.11% 78.84% 21.05% 0.00%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound 13.4% 57.5% 20.6% 8.5% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Burlington 29.9% 46.0% 19.9% 4.2% 2.88% 97.10% 0.02% 0.00%
Cambridge 22.3% 42.1% 29.9% 5.7% 0.69% 92.89% 6.42% 0.00%
Carleton 16.1% 61.6% 16.5% 5.8% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Chatham-Kent—Leamington 8.8% 46.7% 39.4% 5.1% 0.00% 73.35% 26.65% 0.00%
Davenport 31.0% 17.5% 46.5% 5.1% 4.93% 0.04% 95.03% 0.00%
Don Valley East 42.8% 35.0% 18.7% 3.5% 74.29% 25.69% 0.02% 0.00%
Don Valley North 37.1% 42.2% 17.2% 3.5% 23.74% 76.25% 0.01% 0.00%
Don Valley West 40.9% 37.3% 18.5% 3.3% 58.72% 41.24% 0.04% 0.00%
Dufferin—Caledon 19.8% 48.2% 15.8% 16.1% 0.06% 99.94% 0.00% 0.00%
Durham 22.0% 40.5% 33.6% 3.9% 0.44% 84.99% 14.57% 0.00%
Eglinton—Lawrence 39.3% 43.8% 13.7% 3.2% 26.12% 73.88% 0.00% 0.00%
Elgin—Middlesex—London 5.0% 57.0% 33.1% 4.9% 0.00% 98.92% 1.08% 0.00%
Essex 0.0% 31.4% 65.1% 3.4% 0.00% 0.04% 99.96% 0.00%
Etobicoke Centre 31.3% 47.3% 18.6% 2.8% 2.66% 97.33% 0.01% 0.00%
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 33.3% 43.7% 18.9% 4.2% 9.21% 90.79% 0.00% 0.00%
Etobicoke North 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 2.5% 28.73% 43.22% 28.05% 0.00%
Flamborough—Glanbrook 20.9% 43.3% 31.0% 4.8% 0.14% 94.76% 5.10% 0.00%
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 35.3% 42.7% 18.6% 3.4% 17.02% 82.95% 0.03% 0.00%
Guelph 23.2% 32.2% 25.4% 19.2% 7.70% 78.64% 12.87% 0.79%
Haldimand—Norfolk 8.2% 60.0% 27.1% 4.7% 0.00% 99.98% 0.02% 0.00%
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock 21.4% 49.8% 24.6% 4.2% 0.03% 99.65% 0.32% 0.00%
Hamilton Centre 8.3% 21.1% 61.3% 9.3% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek 16.5% 26.5% 53.0% 4.0% 0.00% 0.17% 99.83% 0.00%
Hamilton Mountain 14.5% 25.8% 55.4% 4.4% 0.00% 0.05% 99.95% 0.00%
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas 28.2% 33.5% 33.2% 5.2% 12.85% 53.27% 33.88% 0.00%
Hastings—Lennox and Addington 14.0% 52.3% 28.0% 5.7% 0.00% 99.52% 0.48% 0.00%
Humber River—Black Creek 28.1% 22.7% 47.6% 1.6% 1.44% 0.30% 98.26% 0.00%
Huron—Bruce 16.2% 49.9% 30.4% 3.5% 0.00% 97.64% 2.36% 0.00%
Kanata—Carleton 21.3% 53.7% 18.0% 7.0% 0.01% 99.98% 0.01% 0.00%
Kenora—Rainy River 0.0% 39.7% 57.6% 2.7% 0.00% 3.79% 96.21% 0.00%
Kiiwetinoong 0.2% 24.5% 71.6% 3.7% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Kingston and the Islands 23.5% 33.0% 36.0% 7.5% 3.59% 42.29% 54.12% 0.00%
King—Vaughan 37.3% 42.1% 17.5% 3.1% 25.91% 74.09% 0.00% 0.00%
Kitchener Centre 26.6% 34.6% 32.6% 6.2% 7.63% 63.17% 29.20% 0.00%
Kitchener—Conestoga 22.6% 45.9% 25.3% 6.3% 0.35% 98.45% 1.20% 0.00%
Kitchener South—Hespeler 23.4% 41.2% 29.1% 6.2% 1.11% 93.71% 5.18% 0.00%
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex 5.3% 56.2% 33.9% 4.6% 0.00% 98.58% 1.42% 0.00%
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 10.6% 59.4% 23.1% 7.0% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
3.0% 69.4% 22.5% 5.0% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
London—Fanshawe 5.3% 33.4% 57.1% 4.1% 0.00% 0.82% 99.18% 0.00%
London North Centre 14.8% 38.8% 40.9% 5.4% 0.02% 49.53% 50.45% 0.00%
London West 8.7% 40.0% 47.2% 4.1% 0.00% 21.53% 78.47% 0.00%
Markham—Stouffville 34.8% 43.6% 17.9% 3.8% 14.07% 85.90% 0.03% 0.00%
Markham—Thornhill 37.2% 44.5% 15.9% 2.4% 18.21% 81.77% 0.02% 0.00%
Markham—Unionville 26.8% 51.9% 17.4% 3.9% 0.09% 99.91% 0.00% 0.00%
Milton 29.7% 46.7% 20.0% 3.6% 2.03% 97.93% 0.04% 0.00%
Mississauga Centre 37.6% 36.9% 22.4% 3.1% 46.81% 52.63% 0.56% 0.00%
Mississauga East—Cooksville 36.4% 38.6% 21.2% 3.8% 34.92% 64.78% 0.30% 0.00%
Mississauga—Erin Mills 35.8% 40.2% 21.6% 2.4% 26.80% 72.93% 0.27% 0.00%
Mississauga—Lakeshore 29.9% 44.0% 22.8% 3.3% 4.55% 95.22% 0.23% 0.00%
Mississauga—Malton 34.4% 32.1% 30.7% 2.9% 45.12% 37.79% 17.09% 0.00%
Mississauga—Streetsville 36.8% 39.6% 19.6% 4.0% 32.50% 67.45% 0.05% 0.00%
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 11.7% 20.6% 66.4% 1.3% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nepean 24.6% 52.1% 17.8% 5.5% 0.06% 99.94% 0.00% 0.00%
Newmarket—Aurora 31.5% 46.5% 17.7% 4.2% 3.62% 96.38% 0.00% 0.00%
Niagara Centre 6.8% 34.4% 54.8% 4.1% 0.00% 1.60% 98.40% 0.00%
Niagara Falls 0.6% 40.9% 55.1% 3.5% 0.00% 6.95% 93.05% 0.00%
Niagara West 11.6% 56.3% 26.3% 5.9% 0.00% 99.93% 0.07% 0.00%
Nickel Belt 3.4% 24.4% 68.7% 3.5% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Nipissing 13.3% 52.3% 30.7% 3.8% 0.00% 98.65% 1.35% 0.00%
Northumberland—Peterborough South 26.0% 45.3% 24.4% 4.3% 1.03% 98.64% 0.33% 0.00%
Oakville 34.9% 47.6% 13.6% 3.8% 7.51% 92.49% 0.00% 0.00%
Oakville North—Burlington 32.4% 46.6% 17.5% 3.4% 4.93% 95.07% 0.00% 0.00%
Orléans 37.9% 43.4% 14.9% 3.7% 23.66% 76.34% 0.00% 0.00%
Oshawa 8.9% 39.4% 48.0% 3.8% 0.00% 16.23% 83.77% 0.00%
Ottawa Centre 36.2% 24.1% 31.6% 8.1% 67.15% 7.52% 25.33% 0.00%
Ottawa South 35.2% 42.0% 18.2% 4.5% 19.33% 80.67% 0.00% 0.00%
Ottawa—Vanier 41.4% 32.5% 20.7% 5.4% 77.34% 22.36% 0.30% 0.00%
Ottawa West—Nepean 30.6% 42.9% 20.1% 6.4% 6.35% 93.58% 0.07% 0.00%
Oxford 10.0% 55.2% 30.1% 4.7% 0.00% 99.57% 0.43% 0.00%
Parkdale—High Park 27.0% 23.0% 44.7% 5.3% 1.44% 0.42% 98.14% 0.00%
Parry Sound—Muskoka 12.6% 50.6% 17.7% 19.1% 0.00% 99.98% 0.01% 0.01%
Perth—Wellington 21.9% 49.2% 24.1% 4.8% 0.06% 99.74% 0.20% 0.00%
Peterborough—Kawartha 29.8% 41.3% 24.5% 4.4% 7.88% 90.97% 1.15% 0.00%
Pickering—Uxbridge 33.5% 41.7% 20.5% 4.4% 14.66% 85.21% 0.13% 0.00%
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke 1.6% 75.3% 19.7% 3.3% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Richmond Hill 34.5% 45.2% 17.0% 3.4% 9.92% 90.08% 0.00% 0.00%
Sarnia—Lambton 2.9% 50.4% 42.2% 4.5% 0.00% 75.90% 24.10% 0.00%
Sault Ste. Marie 25.8% 33.7% 38.1% 2.3% 4.79% 37.68% 57.53% 0.00%
Scarborough—Agincourt 35.0% 44.2% 18.1% 2.7% 12.62% 87.37% 0.01% 0.00%
Scarborough Centre 35.1% 32.7% 29.1% 3.2% 48.46% 40.31% 11.23% 0.00%
Scarborough—Guildwood 35.6% 37.9% 23.6% 2.9% 34.10% 65.07% 0.83% 0.00%
Scarborough North 26.7% 39.7% 32.0% 1.6% 3.30% 85.64% 11.06% 0.00%
Scarborough—Rouge Park 33.3% 34.1% 30.3% 2.3% 33.59% 52.09% 14.32% 0.00%
Scarborough Southwest 34.9% 30.8% 30.1% 4.2% 52.54% 31.74% 15.72% 0.00%
Simcoe—Grey 16.6% 56.8% 19.0% 7.7% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Simcoe North 20.7% 48.2% 23.1% 7.9% 0.00% 99.97% 0.03% 0.00%
Spadina—Fort York 33.7% 27.4% 33.4% 5.5% 46.41% 15.70% 37.89% 0.00%
St. Catharines 26.5% 36.8% 32.7% 4.0% 5.14% 72.18% 22.68% 0.00%
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry 5.8% 65.2% 26.2% 2.7% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sudbury 20.9% 26.4% 49.1% 3.6% 0.09% 1.06% 98.85% 0.00%
Thornhill 31.1% 54.0% 12.5% 2.4% 0.61% 99.39% 0.00% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Atikokan 32.4% 26.2% 37.9% 3.6% 27.91% 10.27% 61.82% 0.00%
Thunder Bay—Superior North 35.5% 20.6% 40.1% 3.9% 33.59% 1.49% 64.92% 0.00%
Timiskaming—Cochrane 4.8% 30.0% 63.3% 1.8% 0.00% 0.06% 99.94% 0.00%
Timmins 2.0% 43.1% 53.0% 1.9% 0.00% 15.62% 84.38% 0.00%
Toronto Centre 44.8% 23.2% 27.0% 5.1% 96.36% 1.43% 2.21% 0.00%
Toronto—Danforth 25.3% 20.5% 48.8% 5.4% 0.18% 0.03% 99.79% 0.00%
Toronto—St. Paul's 43.1% 34.5% 17.0% 5.4% 77.40% 22.59% 0.01% 0.00%
University—Rosedale 33.5% 28.4% 30.8% 7.3% 51.09% 23.52% 25.39% 0.00%
Vaughan—Woodbridge 43.2% 37.4% 17.0% 2.3% 66.03% 33.97% 0.00% 0.00%
Waterloo 18.3% 36.4% 40.4% 4.8% 0.03% 30.86% 69.11% 0.00%
Wellington—Halton Hills 17.8% 55.9% 19.0% 7.2% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Whitby 21.9% 49.2% 24.7% 4.2% 0.08% 99.67% 0.25% 0.00%
Willowdale 37.2% 41.4% 17.3% 4.0% 26.08% 73.92% 0.00% 0.00%
Windsor—Tecumseh 0.3% 25.8% 68.2% 5.6% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00%
Windsor West 23.4% 25.4% 48.0% 3.1% 0.24% 0.64% 99.12% 0.00%
York Centre 29.6% 42.3% 24.8% 3.3% 5.04% 94.28% 0.68% 0.00%
York South—Weston 32.8% 21.1% 43.7% 2.4% 12.82% 0.47% 86.71% 0.00%
York—Simcoe 24.0% 45.0% 24.8% 6.2% 0.91% 97.96% 1.13% 0.00%

*Winning=winning the most seats, excluding ties