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Result, Discussion and Conclusion by Macai

Mohd Muzaffar bin Azli

2015249334

RESULT & DISCUSSION


The results from the table shows that Thailand R/T Concession 1972 gives the highest value of return to
the investor, followed by Indonesia FTP 1988 fiscal regime. This is due to most high value of Net Present
Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Present Value Index (PVI). However, high value of NPV,
IRR and PVI do not present the level of a project’s attractiveness. As an example, very high IRR may only
focus the importance of cash flows in early years and not towards the end and IRR do not take account
the materiality of a project. Hence, NPV should be taken into account. Meanwhile, PVI value represent
the value of profitability in terms of capital only; high operating cost projects will not promise the return as
the stated value.
In order to analyze the level of return of a project, there are 7 factors in total that should be considered.
They are royalty, bonuses, cost recovery, profit split, income tax, specific fiscal arrangement and
relinquishment scheme. Each government practices different fiscal regime and it will affect cash flows of a
project. As an example, countries like Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia have a similar royalty rate while
countries such as Vietnam and Thailand implement a royalty based on production. The profit share in
Vietnam and Brunei is determined by certain incremental production rate while in Indonesia, the
production remaining after FTP and Cost Recovery is shared between the government and contractor.

CONCLUSION
The conclusion that can be made from the analysis is Thailand R/T Concession 1972 has the highest
investment return value and is followed by Indonesia FTP 1988. However, by revising the fiscal term,
Indonesia PSC 2006 provides a higher project value compared to others. It is known that the
attractiveness of countries in SEA (Indonesia, Thailand, Brunei and Vietnam) are varies. Thus, it is crucial
to come up with an ideal petroleum fiscal regime that will benefit both government and operators in the
process of maximizing hydrocarbon recovery with minimum risk investment.

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