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Caso Teuer
Caso Teuer
Caso Teuer
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
GDP Growth Furniture Sales Growth Infla
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
215.9 219.2 225.7 229.6 233.5 237.7 242.3 247.4 252.1 256.6
2.7% 1.5% 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8%
13,974 14,499 15,076 15,685 16,238 17,049 18,012 19,021 20,078 21,101
-2.2% 3.8% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 5.0% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.1%
86.3 87.3 90.1 93.1 95.9 98.6 101.2 103.6 105.9 108.0
-13.4% 1.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0%
3.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5%
100%
0
100.5%
2019
261.3
1.8%
110.2
2.0%
2.0%
6971 7133
0.022 0.02
1.0252978 1.0232391
0.21% 0.21%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sales $ 2,057 $ 10,415 $ 26,701 $ 51,540 $ 79,191 $ 90,680
CGS $ -1,463 $ -7,057 $ -17,424 $ -30,730 $ -43,834 $ -47,290
SGA $ -410 $ -1,812 $ -4,958 $ -9,230 $ -13,576 $ -14,679
Advertising $ -203 $ -1,019 $ -2,411 $ -4,588 $ -6,585 $ -7,532
Depreciation $ -72 $ -307 $ -669 $ -1,264 $ -2,075 $ -2,188
Lease $ -250 $ -1,080 $ -2,330 $ -4,240 $ -6,770 $ -7,380
Corporate expense $ -185 $ -729 $ -1,602 $ -3,092 $ -4,751 $ -5,441
Taxes $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -543
Net Income $ -526 $ -1,589 $ -2,693 $ -1,604 $ 1,600 $ 5,627
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ 111,451 $ 134,093 $ 148,218 159,526 174,602 191,742 208,578 222,211
$ -49,068 $ -55,487 $ -61,955 -65,982 -71,670 -80,304 -86,772 -91,108
$ -16,471 $ -18,698 $ -21,253 -22,286 -24,258 -26,556 -29,114 -30,863
$ -8,367 $ -9,545 $ -10,744 -11,635 -12,708 -14,013 -15,253 -16,093
$ -2,032 $ -1,820 $ -1,450 -924 -1,212 -1,798 -2,470 -2,558
$ -7,712 $ -8,450 $ -9,320 -10,107 -11,302 -12,110 -12,883 -13,210
$ -5,573 $ -6,705 $ -7,411 -7,976 -8,730 -9,587 -10,429 -11,111
$ -8,892 $ -13,356 $ -14,434 -16,246 -17,889 -18,949 -20,662 -22,907
$ 13,336 $ 20,032 $ 21,651 24,369 26,833 28,424 30,993 34,361
2018
232,780
-94,000
-31,887
-16,746
-2,177
-13,410
-11,639
-25,168
37,753
Balance Sheet
ASSETS
Accounts receivable 0 751 3479 8675 16946 25272
Inventory 671 3151 8216 15125 20908 21715
Total Current Assets 671 3902 11695 23800 37854 46987
PPE 358 1461 2969 5270 8065 6914
Total Assets 1029 5363 14664 29070 45919 53901
2008 Sales 31
CGS
SGA
Advertising
Depreciation
Lease
2009 Sales 14.5
CGS
SGA
Advertising
Depreciation
Lease
2015 Sales 30
CGS
SGA
Advertising
Depreciation
Lease
1 2 3 4
accts receivable 33.2% 32.6% 32.4% 32.0%
0 1 2 3
inventory 47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6%
0 1 2 3
accts payable 16.1% 16.9% 16.1% 16.8%
0 1 2 3
accr expenses 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
1 2
861
1201 2066
1223 1923 2326
414 681 787
54 86 111
1
877
1238
1259 1977
426 700
56 89
837
1214
411
54
5 6 7 8
32.3% 32.8% 32.0% 30.8%
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6%
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
15.9% 16.0% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3%
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
10 11 12
2449.51036
12419 12722 13005
7634 7803 8077
2614 2672 2766
419 429 444
9 10 11
3276.8814
16185 16580 16948
9949 10170 10526
3407 3483 3604
546 559 578
8 9 10
761 761.188307
3598 3769 3853
2262 2312 2393
775 792 819
124 127 128
761
7 8 9
322 321.980747
1750 1732 1811
1028 1087 1125
352 372 385
55 60 62
322
6 7 8
616 616.384284
3569 3579 3535
2036 2098 2257
697 718 773
119 111 117
616
5 6 7
4 5 6
3 4 5
2 3 4
1 2 3
12 13 14 15
47.6% 47.6% 47.6% 47.6%
12 13 14 15
16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3%
12 13 14 15
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 73.6% 34.6% 19.5% 15.1% 0.2% 1.2%
2004 72.9% 29.2% 21.4% 8.1% 3.6% 3.4%
2005 76.6% 32.6% 22.2% 7.8% 3.7% -3.1%
2006 73.8% 28.8% 24.4% 11.3% -1.3%
2007 64.5% 36.8% 26.1% 6.3%
2008 60.5% 35.6% 23.6%
2009 69.0% 36.6%
2010 70.4%
2011
Average 70.2% 33.5% 22.9% 9.7% 1.6% 0.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 71.1% 61.5% 57.8% 38.9% 43.4% 42.0% 38.9%
2004 71.3% 62.4% 52.1% 43.8% 39.0% 41.2% 38.7%
2005 72.9% 65.6% 57.8% 40.6% 41.1% 40.3% 36.9%
2006 70.1% 53.1% 57.6% 33.3% 38.9% 40.0%
2007 72.6% 67.3% 53.9% 38.4% 41.0%
2008 64.4% 67.0% 61.0% 40.7%
2009 71.0% 65.9% 53.3%
2010 74.0% 66.5%
2011 70.3%
Average 70.9% 63.7% 56.2% 39.3% 40.7% 40.9% 38.2%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 19.9% 17.1% 16.4% 13.9% 12.9% 13.9% 13.6%
2004 17.6% 18.0% 17.4% 14.1% 14.5% 13.7% 13.9%
2005 20.4% 17.9% 17.0% 14.5% 13.2% 13.2% 15.1%
2006 20.4% 19.0% 18.0% 12.7% 14.4% 14.2%
2007 19.8% 17.6% 18.0% 13.0% 13.6%
2008 16.4% 18.4% 16.9% 13.4%
2009 17.9% 19.2% 17.4%
2010 20.7% 19.4%
2011 20.9%
Average 19.3% 18.3% 17.3% 13.6% 13.7% 13.8% 14.2%
Panel D Advertising
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 9.9% 8.9% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 7.7% 6.9%
2004 10.3% 8.2% 8.3% 7.4% 8.0% 7.7% 7.2%
2005 10.9% 8.9% 8.0% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% 7.3%
2006 10.3% 8.4% 8.3% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6%
2007 10.2% 9.0% 8.1% 6.9% 7.1%
2008 10.2% 9.6% 8.3% 7.3%
2009 11.0% 9.1% 8.6%
2010 11.7% 8.9%
2011 10.7%
Average 10.6% 8.9% 8.2% 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 7.1%
8 9
1.0% -0.6%
0.0%
0.5% -0.6%
8 9
36.6% 40.0%
40.2%
8 9
11.7% 13.1%
13.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 36.5% 31.6% 31.9% 32.1% 32.2% 30.9% 31.0%
2004 34.4% 32.5% 33.2% 33.5% 34.2% 34.6% 32.5%
2005 32.8% 33.1% 31.8% 29.7% 31.3% 31.7% 32.4%
2006 32.6% 31.2% 33.8% 33.8% 32.0% 33.8%
2007 31.2% 31.0% 32.3% 31.3% 32.0%
2008 32.9% 34.0% 30.5% 31.4%
2009 33.7% 33.5% 33.6%
2010 31.8% 33.7%
2011 32.6%
Average 33.2% 32.6% 32.4% 32.0% 32.3% 32.8% 32.0%
Panel B Inventory
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 45.9% 47.2% 44.0% 50.4% 42.4% 42.4% 44.3%
2004 43.4% 48.3% 54.5% 46.4% 47.3% 45.6% 48.5%
2005 47.2% 48.3% 40.6% 46.8% 43.4% 44.9% 48.2%
2006 45.6% 58.0% 48.8% 59.3% 50.4% 49.2%
2007 46.7% 42.2% 53.0% 48.1% 45.5%
2008 50.1% 49.4% 48.6% 45.9%
2009 47.8% 53.4% 46.7%
2010 45.5% 50.7%
2011 45.3%
Average 46.4% 49.7% 48.0% 49.5% 45.8% 45.5% 47.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2003 16.1% 17.2% 14.8% 16.9% 14.6% 15.2% 15.7%
2004 16.1% 16.9% 18.0% 15.6% 17.0% 16.3% 16.8%
2005 15.4% 16.1% 15.2% 16.2% 16.2% 15.9% 17.3%
2006 16.1% 19.8% 16.0% 19.1% 16.3% 16.7%
2007 15.5% 16.8% 16.5% 17.3% 15.2%
2008 17.0% 15.8% 15.0% 15.6%
2009 16.8% 15.8% 17.3%
2010 15.6% 16.4%
2011 16.4%
Average 16.1% 16.9% 16.1% 16.8% 15.9% 16.0% 16.6%
Nominal Real
2003 20.8 25.9 222.74
2004 22.3 26.8
2005 24.5 28.6
2006 28.2 32
2007 40.6 33.5
2008 29.8 32.6
2009 27.2 28.9
2010 25.6 26.8
2011 25.9 26.4
2012 26.4 26.4
2013 26.9 26.4
2014 27.4 26.4
2015 27.9 26.4
30.8% 31.5%
8 9
50.3% 42.5%
47.3%
48.8% 42.5%
8 9
17.2% 15.3%
15.9%
16.6% 15.3%
8 9
5.2% 4.7%
4.9%
4.9%
5.0% 4.7%
Forecasting parameters
1 2 3 4 5
Sales growth 70.2% 33.5% 22.9% 9.7%
CGS 70.9% 63.7% 56.2% 39.7%
SGA 19.3% 18.3% 17.3% 13.6%
Advertising 10.6% 8.9% 8.2% 7.2%
Accounts receivable 32.4%
Inventory 47.6%
Accounts payable 16.3%
Accrued expenses 5%
Depreciation 5
Refresh cost 70.0%
Corporate tax rate 40.0%
Corporate Expenses 5.0%
Discount rate 12.1%
Long term growth rate 3.5%
Numbers of shares outstanding 9,945
6 7
1.5% 0.3%
Teuer Furniture Pro Forma Income Statement
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales 148,218
CGS -61,955
SGA (exc adv & dep) -21,253
Advertising -10,744
Depreciation -1,450
Lease (stores) -9,320
Corp Expense (inc lease/adv) -7,411
Taxes -14,434
Net income 21,651
Parameters:
Corporate tax rate 40%
Corporate expenses 5%
2018 2019
Teuer Furniture Pro Forma Cash Flow Assets
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales 148,218 159,526 174,602 191,742 208,578 222,211
- Costs -112,132 -118,911 -129,880 -144,368 -156,923 -164,943
- Taxes -14,434 -16,246 -17,889 -18,949 -20,662 -22,907
Net income 21,651 24,369 26,833 28,424 30,993 34,361
- Capital expenditure -2,229 -2,367 -3,327 -4,114 -761 -322
+ Depreciation 1,450 924 1,212 1,798 2,470 2,558
- Increase in NWC -8,365 -6,583 -7,131 -8,032 -7,257 -5,197
Cash flow assets 12,508 16,342 17,588 18,077 25,446 31,400
Terminal value
Asset value
Share value
Parameters:
Asset discount rate 12.1%
Long-term growth rate 3.5%
Shareholders (#) 187
Shares outstanding (K) 9,945
2018
232,780
-169,859
-25,168
37,753
-616
2,177
-4,284
35,030
Teuer Furniture Pro Forma Balance Sheet
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Assets
Accounts Receivable 48,200 53,057 58,036 63,850 69,871 74,366
Inventory 33,343 36,287 40,145 43,544 45,708 46,985
Total Current Assets 81,543 89,344 98,181 107,393 115,579 121,352
PPE 3,920
Total Assets 85,463
77,724
48,504
126,229