Gulliver Prep-Solar Storms Neg

Notes ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2

***Case ....................................................................................................................................... 2
1NC Blackouts Advantage ....................................................................................................................................... 3
Exts-Solar Shields Solve ......................................................................................................................................... 5
Exts-Can’t Predict ................................................................................................................................................... 6
Ext: No Impact .........................................................................................................................................................7
1NC Economy Advantage.......................................................................................................................................10
2NC Airline Industry I/L ....................................................................................................................................... 12
2NC GPS I/L-Resiliant .......................................................................................................................................... 13
2NC GPS I/L-No Impact........................................................................................................................................ 14
2NC Space Assets I/L............................................................................................................................................. 16
1NC Steel/Auto Industry........................................................................................................................................18
Exts: Impact N-U ................................................................................................................................................... 19
Exts: Resiliant ....................................................................................................................................................... 20
1NC Pandemics f/l ................................................................................................................................................ 22
Exts – Kill Hosts ................................................................................................................................................... 24
Exts – Immunities ................................................................................................................................................ 25
a/t: TB ................................................................................................................................................................... 26
A/T: Global Katrina Scenario ............................................................................................................................... 29

***Solvency .............................................................................................................................. 30
1NC Solvency f/l ..................................................................................................................................................... 31
Exts-STEREO Solves ........................................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
Exts-Hype ......................................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
Exts-NASA Solves ............................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.

***Counterplans ....................................................................................................................... 40
1NC Protection Strategy CP ................................................................................................................................... 41
2NC Solvency ........................................................................................................................................................ 43
A/T: Links to Pxs. ................................................................................................................................................. 44
ESA CP Solvency ................................................................................................................................................... 46
Privatization CP Solvency ..................................................................................................................................... 48

***DA Links .............................................................................................................................. 49

Politics Links ......................................................................................................................................................... 50
Flip Flop Links ...................................................................................................................................................... 52
Spending Links ..................................................................................................................................................... 53
 Notes
Ideal 2NR would be ESA CP and politics. The ESA has already developed capabilities for solar monitoring and two days ago announced they are
launching the closest probe ever to the Sun. Also, DSCOVR/solar storms detection links hard to politics because funding was already proposed for
DSCOVR and it has been cancelled a couple of times by the House.

Case: Most of the internal links are contrived and don’t really make any sense. None of their evidence is that good, so you can just make fun of it. On the
solvency debate, go for the STEREO solves argument. It is different than ACE and SOHO and none of their evidence in the solvency contention talks
about STEREO specifically even though they try to say it does. STEREO already provides complete observation of the Earth and most of the cards are
really recent about why it’s the best detection capability we have.

Privatization CP: Cards are alright you are better off sticking with the ESP CP, but it is still a viable 2NR option.

Protection Strategy: Just an advantage CP that improves our current grids to protect against solar storms. Does a few things to improve our current
systems in the case of a storm. NB is politics.

***Case
 1NC Blackouts Advantage
NO RISK OF POWER GRID FAILURE - SOLAR SHIELD PROGRAM PREVENTS MELTDOWN
DAILY TECH 2010 ["NASA looks to protect U.S. power grid with 'Solar Shield' project",
http://www.dailytech.com/NASA+Looks+to+Protect+US+Power+Grid+with+Solar+Shield+Project/article20
020.htm] ttate
To protect power systems in the event that another powerful solar storm should occur, NASA has developed a
project called "Solar Shield," which has the potential to shelter high-voltage power lines that crisscross over North America. Considering the
length of these power lines has "increased nearly 10 fold" since the beginning of the Space Age, it is critical to consider the affect a solar storm could have
on power systems in the United States and throughout the world.
"Solar Shield is a new and experimental forecasting system for the North American power grid," said Antti
Pulkkinen, project leader and Catholic University of America research associate currently working with NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe we can zero in on specific transformers and predict which of them
are going to be hit the hardest by a space weather event."
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are the main problems when it comes to power grids during geomagnetic
storms. When a CME approaches Earth's magnetic field, it causes the field to shake. This quiver causes currents from the
ground to Earth's upper atmosphere, and powerful GICs can trip breakers, overload circuits and melt the windings of transformers. Transformer damage
leads to large-scale blackouts, and these transformers cannot be repaired in the field. They must be replaced, which is both expensive and time
consuming.
"Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection (CME) billowing away from the sun," said
Pulkkinen. "Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the cloud from as many as three
points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it will arrive."
The CME typically takes 24 to 48 hours to cross the Sun-Earth divide. During this time, NASA researchers at the Goddard Community Coordinated Modeling Center
(CCMC) are gathering physics-based computer programs to model the CME. Thirty minutes before impact, ACE, a spacecraft stationed 1.5 million km
"upstream from Earth," uses its sensors to make in situ measurement's of the CME's magnetic field, density and speed, then sends the data to the Solar Shield
team on Earth. The data is fed into CCMC computers where models predict currents and fields in Earth's upper atmosphere and transmit this
information to the ground. The Solar Shield team is then prepared to send alerts to utilities with details about the
GICs.

Solar storms are a natural occurrence and have been happening every 11 years. The major Carrington
event scenarios that the aff presumes will not happen for another 350 years.
International Risk Governance Council, 2010
(The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) is an independent and neutral organisation whose purpose is to help improve the understanding and management
of potentially global risks that have impacts on human health and safety, the environment, the economy and society at large.“Severe space weather: solar storms;
Emerging Risks: Solar storms,” October 2010, http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/Emerging_risks_solar_storms.pdf , accessed 7-23-11, ASR)

The frequency and intensity of solar flares and CMEs peak and trough according to the eleven-year solar
activity cycle (i.e. there are, on average, eleven years between solar maxima, when the sun is most active in producing flares and CMEs). At a solar
maximum (the next one is predicted by NASA to occur in April/May 2013) a CME reaches Earth’s orbit about
once every five days and an average of 12 CME-induced geo-magnetic storms can be expected annually on
Earth [Jansen et al., 2000]. History tells us that very large storms are low probability events – the largest storm on record, the ‘Carrington
event’ of 1859, was caused by a massive CME and a storm of this magnitude is probably a once-in-500-years
event. Storms of half this intensity can be expected every 50 years or so [Odenwald and Green, 2008]. Severe solar storms
are therefore low probability, high impact events. These space weather events are a natural source of risk and
are nothing new – such events have been observed for as long as humankind has been watching the skies.

There is no factual basis for claims of solar storms wiping out Earth’s electrical grid
Gary 10 (Stuart, ABC Sciences Expert, “Solar Max Claims ‘Overstated’, 8/72/10,
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/08/27/2995543.htm)
Australia's leading body responsible for monitoring space weather has dismissed claims that a massive solar
storm could "wipe out the Earth's entire power grid". One report quotes an Australian astronomer as saying "the storm is likely to
come sooner rather than later". But Dr Phil Wilkinson, assistant director with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's
Ionospheric Prediction Service, says claims that this coming solar maximum will be the most violent in 100
years are not factual. "All this talk about gloom and doom has selling power, but I'm certain it's overstated," says Wilkinson. "[It's] going far
beyond what's realistic and could be worrying or concerning for people who don't really understand the
underlying science behind it all." "The real message should be that the coming solar maximum period could be
equally as hazardous as any other solar maximum." 11-year cycle The Sun goes through an 11-year solar cycle moving from a period of
low activity called solar minimum to a time of heightened activity called solar maximum. During solar maximum there's an increase in sun spot activity,
which are dark patches on the Sun's surface caused by magnetic field lines breaking through from deep below. Because the Sun isn't a solid object like the
Earth, different parts of the Sun rotate at different speeds, which cause these field lines to twist and stretch, eventually snapping like elastic bands. When
they snap they produce an eruption of electromagnetic energy called a solar flare, which can be accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME). If
directed at Earth, charged particles within the CME slam into the magnetosphere, resulting in the northern and southern auroral lights. Previous CME
events have damaged spacecraft, interfered with communications systems and overloaded ground-based power grids. Aware of the problems Despite
the potential threat, Wilkinson says authorities are aware of issues and are taking precautions. "We monitor
solar activity and give out warnings if something is heading our way," says Wilkinson. "That will be at least a
few hours [in advance], enough time to prepare." He says while some satellites could be damaged by a future CME, others could be
protected by being placed in 'safe mode'. Wilkinson adds the impact on power grids would be minimal. "At worst, it's a
regional thing, not a global thing as these reports imply." He says high frequency communications may also be affected, but it would
be temporary. Low maximum According to Wilkinson, the Sun has been through a long solar minimum and appears to be
heading into a low solar maximum. Previous observations have shown this could result in high spikes of CME
activity. "It means we could see auroral activity over all of Australia rather than just the higher latitudes," says
Wilkinson. "It's unusual, but not unprecedented. James Cook made mention of just such an event off Timor." is so low that
other processes stop them. The Earth's magnetic field also helps deflect particles, especially near the equator. I
don't remember numbers, but I would guess that in the last 40 years, the most flare particles did was double
for a few hours the cosmic ray intensity to which all life is exposed continually, day in and day out.
 Exts-Solar Shields Solve
NASA’s new Solar Shield project solves – already gives advanced notice to specific transformers
that will be targeted by the storm
Phillips 10 (Dr. Tony, , production editor of Science@NASA, “Solar Shield--Protecting the North American Power Grid”, 10/26/10,
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/ )
Oct. 26, 2010: Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles
point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of
1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a
storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers. A new NASA project
called "Solar Shield" could help keep the lights on. "Solar Shield is a new and experimental forecasting system
for the North American power grid," explains project leader Antti Pulkkinen, a Catholic University of America research
associate working at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe we can zero in on specific transformers and predict
which of them are going to be hit hardest by a space weather event." The troublemaker for power grids is the
"GIC" – short for geomagnetically induced current. When a coronal mass ejection (a billion-ton solar storm cloud) hits Earth's
magnetic field, the impact causes the field to shake and quiver. These magnetic vibrations induce currents almost everywhere, from Earth's upper
atmosphere to the ground beneath our feet. Powerful GICs can overload circuits, trip breakers, and in extreme cases melt
the windings of heavy-duty transformers. This actually happened in Quebec on March 13, 1989, when a geomagnetic storm much less
severe than the Carrington Event knocked out power across the entire province for more than nine hours. The storm damaged transformers in Quebec,
New Jersey, and Great Britain, and caused more than 200 power anomalies across the USA from the eastern seaboard to the Pacific Northwest. A similar
series of "Halloween storms" in October 2003 triggered a regional blackout in southern Sweden and may have damaged transformers in South Africa.
While many utilities have taken steps to fortify their grids, the overall situation has only gotten worse. A 2009 report by the North American Electric
Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the US Department of Energy concluded that modern power systems have a "significantly enhance[d] vulnerability
and exposure to effects of a severe geomagnetic storm." The underlying reason may be seen at a glance in this plot: Solar Shield (power lines, 550px)
Growth of the High Voltage Transmission Network and annual electric energy usage in the United States over the past 50 years. Credit: North American
Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Dept. of Energy. Since the beginning of the Space Age the total length of high-voltage power lines
crisscrossing North America has increased nearly 10 fold. This has turned power grids into giant antennas for geomagnetically induced currents. With
demand for power growing even faster than the grids themselves, modern networks are sprawling, interconnected, and stressed to the limit—a recipe for
trouble, according to the National Academy of Sciences: "The scale and speed of problems that could occur on [these modern grids] have the potential to
impact the power system in ways not previously experienced." A large-scale blackout could last a long time, mainly due to transformer damage. As the
National Academy report notes, "these multi-ton apparatus cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this manner they need to be replaced with
new units which have lead times of 12 months or more." Solar Shield (transformer damage, 200px) Permanent damage to the Salem New Jersey Nuclear
Plant GSU Transformer caused by the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic storm. Photos courtesy of PSE&G. [larger image] That is why a node-by-
node forecast of geomagnetic currents is potentially so valuable. During extreme storms, engineers could
safeguard the most endangered transformers by disconnecting them from the grid. That itself could cause a
blackout, but only temporarily. Transformers protected in this way would be available again for normal
operations when the storm is over. The innovation of Solar Shield is its ability to deliver transformer-level
predictions. Pulkkinen explains how it works: "Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection
(CME) billowing away from the sun. Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the
cloud from as many as three points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it
will arrive." While the CME is crossing the sun-Earth divide, a trip that typically takes 24 to 48 hours, the Solar Shield team prepares to
calculate ground currents. "We work at Goddard's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)," says Pulkkinen. The CCMC is a place
where leading researchers from around the world have gathered their best physics-based computer programs for modeling space weather events. The
crucial moment comes about 30 minutes before impact when the cloud sweeps past ACE, a spacecraft stationed
1.5 million km upstream from Earth. Sensors onboard ACE make in situ measurements of the CME's speed,
density, and magnetic field. These data are transmitted to Earth and the waiting Solar Shield team. "We
quickly feed the data into CCMC computers," says Pulkkinen. "Our models predict fields and currents in
Earth's upper atmosphere and propagate these currents down to the ground." With less than 30 minutes to go,
Solar Shield can issue an alert to utilities with detailed information about GICs.
 Exts-Can’t Predict
Scientific unknowns and uncertainty make it impossible to accurately predict when a solar
storm will happen
International Risk Governance Council 10 (The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) is an independent and neutral
organisation whose purpose is to help improve the understanding and management of potentially global risks that have impacts on human health and
safety, the environment, the economy and society at large. “Severe space weather: solar storms; Emerging Risks: Solar storms,” October 2010,
http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/Emerging_risks_solar_storms.pdf)
Perhaps the most obvious factor is scientific unknowns – the knowledge that we have of the natural systems
involved (of solar chemistry or atmospheric physics) and of the nature and extent of where our vulnerabilities lie is incomplete While we know a
lot about solar chemistry and understand the processes by which solar flares and CMEs are formed, there are still important unknowns due, in large part,
to the complexity of the systems involved (complexity of solar chemistry, of the interplanetary environment between the earth and the sun, etc).
Despite the fact that the eleven-year solar cycle helps predictability of space weather to some extent, modelling
is still not accurate enough to give more than a few hours of qualitative warning of a solar event [Cole, 2003].
Although most flares and CMEs occur at solar maxima, large magnetic storms have also occurred at solar
minima and, indeed, the largest flare in modern times occurred during a solar lull in 2006 [Turner, 2009]. Deep,
structural uncertainty provides obstacles to accurate forecasting of solar events.

There is no way to predict with certainty that a solar storm will happen in 2013 – the sun has
been surprising scientists and disproving their models
Phillips 10 (Dr. Tony, , production editor of Science@NASA, “Solar Shield--Protecting the North American Power Grid”, 10/26/10,
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/ )
The latest forecast revises an earlier prediction issued in 2007. At that time, a sharply divided panel believed
solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar
maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct. "It turns
out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead
representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way." Researchers have
known about the solar cycle since the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-
year period. At first glance, it looks like a regular pattern, but predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome. Cycles vary in length from about
9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch out much longer.
In the 17th century the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that
still baffles scientists. Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records
for low sunspot counts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare. "In our
professional careers, we've never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far
beyond the date we predicted in 2007." In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show timorous signs of life. Small sunspots and
"proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and
slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are
precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel's new, almost unanimous forecast. According to the forecast, the
sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that's good news
because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect
on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed
solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-
Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet. Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to
human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast. "Go
ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil.
 Ext: No Impact
The aff’s claims of destructive solar storms are unfounded and sensationalist – only minor
damage would occur
Gorman 09 (Paul, The Press, staff writer, “Local expert downplays solar threat: SUPER-STORM”, 4/22/09, LexisNexis)
The remote threat of a catastrophic "solar super-storm" killing hundreds of thousands of people and plunging
the Earth into chaos has met with typical Kiwi caution. Britons were this week warned of the risk of a massive solar eruption
smashing into the Earth, possibly in three years, its charged gases knocking out all power, water, transport and communications infrastructure, killing
crops and people. Twenty years ago a small solar storm caused the power grid across much of eastern Canada and
the north-east United States to collapse. And in 1859, a solar eruption caused damage to telegraph networks .
The next year of maximum solar activity, given the 11-year solar cycle, is 2012. A report in New Scientist says that as the world becomes more dependent
on technology, the effects of a solar super-storm would become more devastating. Such a storm would be one of the most dangerous, but least well-
recognised, risks to the world's population. New Zealand scientists say the scenario is sensationalist. National Institute of
Water and Atmospheric Research upper atmosphere scientist Bill Allan said a super-storm was not due in three
years and the impact of one on people and infrastructure was "extreme and exaggerated". "Many of them could
occur in some form, but the implied complete global disaster is very unlikely." A report from the US National Academy of
Sciences was a warning that major economic disruptions were possible "if we don't do something about 'hardening' our electrical and electronic
systems". "Communications would definitely have major disruptions for a relatively short period. The worst
effects would be from electrical supply problems in regions at relatively high latitudes with major
interconnected power grids. "In a New Zealand context, we would likely have similar communications problems for a relatively short period.
We are at a moderate magnetic latitude and do not have the very large- scale interconnected power systems that exist in North America."

Solar flares do not provide any hazards for life on Earth.

Stern 97 (Dr. David P., Studied physics at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) in Haifa, with
doctoral thesis on an underground experiment on cosmic rays. In 1959 joined Fred Singer's space group at the University of Maryland, then in 1961 came
to Goddard Space Flight Center., “Ask An Astrophysicist”, 11/24/97, Goddard Space Flight Center,
http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/ask_astro/answers/971124a.html)
You can sleep soundly tonight--all we know about solar flares suggests they can never pose a life hazard at the
Earth's surface*. And as far as I know, no one ever suggested that one of them caused the demise of dinosaurs. Asteroid impacts, giant volcanoes--
yes; flares--no. Very few flares produce charged particles, and the energies involved are generally too low to
penetrate the entire atmosphere, which is equivalent to about 10 feet of concrete. In such a thick layer, both
ions and electrons dissipate their energy among a growing number of secondary fragments, whose number
grows but the energy of each one drops, until it
 a/t: Nuclear Breakdown
No risk of nuclear meltdowns
Beller, 4 - Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Dr. Denis E, “Atomic Time Machines: Back to the Nuclear
Future,” 24 J. Land Resources & Envtl. L. 41, 2004)

No caveats, no explanation, not from this engineer/scientist. It's just plain safe! All
sources of electricity production result in health
and safety impacts. However, at the National Press Club meeting, Energy Secretary Richardson indicated that nuclear power is safe by stating,
"I'm convinced it is." 45 Every nuclear scientist and engineer should agree with that statement. Even mining,
transportation, and waste from nuclear power have lower impacts because of the difference in magnitude of
materials. In addition, emissions from nuclear plants are kept to near zero. 46 If you ask a theoretical scientist, nuclear energy does have a potential
tremendous adverse impact. However, it has had that same potential for forty years, which is why we designed and
operate nuclear plants with multiple levels of containment and safety and multiple backup systems. Even the
country's most catastrophic accident, the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979, did not injure anyone. 47 The fact is,
Western-developed and Western-operated nuclear power is the safest major source of electricity production.
Haven't we heard enough cries of "nuclear wolf" from scared old men and "the sky is radioactive" from [*50] nuclear Chicken Littles? We have a
world of data to prove the fallacy of these claims about the unsafe nature of nuclear installations. [SEE FIGURE IN
ORIGINAL] Figure 2. Deaths resulting from electricity generation. 48 Figure 2 shows the results of an ongoing
analysis of the safety impacts of energy production from several sources of energy. Of all major sources of
electricity, nuclear power has produced the least impact from real accidents that have killed real people during
the past 30 years, while hydroelectric has had the most severe accident impact. 49 The same is true for environmental and
health impacts. 50 Of all major sources of energy, nuclear energy has the least impacts on environment and health while coal has the greatest. 51 The low
death [*51] rate from nuclear power accidents in the figure includes the Chernobyl accident in the Former Soviet Union. 52
 1NC Economy Advantage
Non-unique-airline industry already declining the status quo
The Epoch Times 10/4 (Caroline Dobson, Epoch Times staff writer, “Airline Industry Predicst More Tough Times Ahead”, 10/4/11,
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/business/airline-industry-predicts-more-tough-times-ahead-62375.html)
Business in the international aviation industry is showing a continual downward trend, with air travel growth slowing
and freight activity plummeting due to the pullback in the global economy and consumer confidence. “The industry has
shifted gears downward,” said International Air Transport Association (IATA) chief executive Tony Tyler in a statement. “With
business and consumer confidence continuing to slump there is not a lot of optimism for improved conditions anytime soon.” According to the IATA, the
air-freight market dropped by 3.8 percent in August compared to a year ago, as well as a drop of 1.8 percent compared with the prior month. The
airline industry’s leading trade body announced that global air cargo has fallen by more than half. Concerns about U.S.
and European consumer spending and the possibility of slipping back into recession continue, and the impact of the higher cost of exports from Asian
manufacturers due to rising wages is exacerbating the problem. Tyler, the former head of Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, also said, "The cargo
trends are certainly inauspicious and if cargo is again playing the role of leading indicator, then economies—
and by extension airlines—are in for a difficult time." Given that the Asian market accounts for more than 50 percent of the freight
market, a fall in Asia of 5.4 percent in August was substantial for the industry. "[Asia’s] cargo numbers are driven by consumption in Europe and North
America, so if their numbers are weak it is because people in Europe and North America are not buying products ."
Passenger statistics appear to be stronger than freight, but still show a decline. Growth in July was around 5 percent, whereas August
traffic increased by only 4.5 percent year-over-year. The membership of IATA consists of 230 airlines, such as British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and
American Airlines. Low budget European airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet are not included, so their contributed travel growth could increase the
calculated profit in air travel. The IATA predicts projected airline industry net income to fall from an estimated $6.9 billion in 2011 to $4.9 billion in
2012. “Airlines are bracing for tough times ahead,” Tyler said in the statement. “Economic uncertainty owing to the
European sovereign debt crisis and the growing likelihood of a protracted period of slow growth in developed
economies mean the industry will be even more focused on reducing costs.”

GPS Systems have already been backed up and replaced – eLORAN provides the same
capabilities and MORE
PAPPALARDO 9
[joe senior editor at Popular Mechanics and a former associate editor at Smithsonian's Air & Space magazine “ Inside the Government's Backup Plan for
GPS Failure” http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/news/4266972
Satellite-based navigation has become a ubiquitous tool for business, military and personal use. The downside is that any disruption in the Global
Positioning System could wreak havoc down on Earth. This year, the Department of Homeland Security decided that a 30-year-old
navigation system used by mariners will be upgraded to back up GPS. The decision preserves the Long-Range Aids to
Navigation (LORAN) network, which has been teetering on the verge of forced retirement since the 1980s, according to the
Coast Guard's Navigation Center. The backbone of LORAN is a network of transmission stations , many located in remote regions,
staffed with Coast Guard personnel, and equipped with antennas as tall as 900 ft. The 2009 DHS budget
allocates $34.5 million for the Coast Guard to start upgrading the LORAN system with modern electronics and
solid-state transmitters. Users of the enhanced system, called eLORAN, will acquire and track signals from ground
stations in much the same way they triangulate signals from multiple satellite feeds. LORAN also adds a data channel that
can handle more detailed information. The system won't just wait for GPS to fail: eLORAN stations will continually
transmit time-keeping data needed for navigation and warnings about coming disruptions. Why GPS Needs a Backup Plan Intentional
Jamming Threat: GPS signals use low-powered, high-frequency signals that are easy to block. eLORAN Fix: Uses high-powered
transmitters that send stronger signals requiring more power to disrupt. Environmental Interference Threat: Signals
from GPS sats need to be in the line of sight of receivers and are blocked by metal, mountains and reinforced
concrete. eLORAN Fix: Terrestrial signals bend around the Earth's curvature and can penetrate urban canyons
and dense foliage. Cosmic Radiation Threat: Unusually large solar flares can produce radio bursts over the same
frequency bands as GPS satellite transmissions. eLORAN Fix: Cosmic radio waves cannot penetrate the ionosphere,
so LORAN signals are immune to interference. Antisatellite Weapons Threat: Future ground-based missiles
could target and knock out GPS satellites. eLORAN Fix:Ground stations can be more easily guarded from
attacks, including those by missiles.

Alt causes to GPS failure

Pappalardo 9 (Joe Pappalardo, Editor of Smithsonian Air and Space, “Inside the Government’s Backup Plan for GPS Failure”, popular magazine,
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/news/4266972)
Satellite-based navigation has become a ubiquitous tool for business, military and personal use. The downside
is that any disruption in the Global Positioning System could wreak havoc down on Earth. This year, the Department
of Homeland Security decided that a 30-year-old navigation system used by mariners will be upgraded to back up GPS. The decision preserves the Long-
Range Aids to Navigation (LORAN) network, which has been teetering on the verge of forced retirement since the 1980s, according to the Coast Guard's
Navigation Center. The backbone of LORAN is a network of transmission stations, many located in remote regions, staffed with Coast Guard personnel,
and equipped with antennas as tall as 900 ft. The 2009 DHS budget allocates $34.5 million for the Coast Guard to start upgrading the LORAN system
with modern electronics and solid-state transmitters. Users of the enhanced system, called eLORAN, will acquire and track signals from ground stations
in much the same way they triangulate signals from multiple satellite feeds. LORAN also adds a data channel that can handle more detailed information.
The system won't just wait for GPS to fail: eLORAN stations will continually transmit time-keeping data needed for navigation and warnings about
coming disruptions. Why GPS Needs a Backup Plan Intentional Jamming Threat: GPS signals use low-powered, high-
frequency signals that are easy to block. eLORAN Fix: Uses high-powered transmitters that send stronger signals requiring more power to
disrupt. Environmental Interference Threat: Signals from GPS sats need to be in the line of sight of receivers and
are blocked by metal, mountains and reinforced concrete. eLORAN Fix: Terrestrial signals bend around the Earth's curvature and
can penetrate urban canyons and dense foliage. Cosmic Radiation Threat: Unusually large solar flares can produce radio
bursts over the same frequency bands as GPS satellite transmissions. eLORAN Fix: Cosmic radio waves cannot penetrate the
ionosphere, so LORAN signals are immune to interference. Antisatellite Weapons Threat: Future ground-based missiles could
target and knock out GPS satellites. eLORAN Fix:Ground stations can be more easily guarded from attacks, including those by missiles.
Read more: Inside the Government's Backup Plan for GPS Failure - Popular Mechanics

No impact to GPS failure

GAO 9 (Government Accountability Organization, “Global Positioning System: Significant Challenges in Sustaining and Upgrading Widely Used
Capabilities” http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-670T)

It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS
service without interruption. If not, some military operations and some civilian users could be adversely affected. (1) In recent years, the
Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals; it encountered
significant technical problems that still threaten its delivery schedule; and it struggled with a different
contractor. As a result, the current IIF satellite program has overrun its original cost estimate by about $870
million and the launch of its first satellite has been delayed to November 2009--almost 3 years late. (2) Further, while the Air
Force is structuring the new GPS IIIA program to prevent mistakes made on the IIF program, the Air Force is aiming to deploy the next generation of
GPS satellites 3 years faster than the IIF satellites. GAO's analysis found that this schedule is optimistic, given the program's late start, past trends in
space acquisitions, and challenges facing the new contractor. Of particular concern is leadership for GPS acquisition, as GAO and other studies have
found the lack of a single point of authority for space programs and frequent turnover in program managers have hampered requirements setting,
funding stability, and resource allocation. (3) If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA
satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS
constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S.
government commits to. Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS users, though
there are measures the Air Force and others can take to plan for and minimize these impacts. In
addition to risks facing the acquisition of new GPS satellites, the Air Force has not been fully successful in synchronizing the acquisition and
development of the next generation of GPS satellites with the ground control and user equipment, thereby delaying the ability of military users to fully
utilize new GPS satellite capabilities. Diffuse leadership has been a contributing factor, given that there is no single authority responsible for
synchronizing all procurements and fielding related to GPS, and funding has been diverted from ground programs to pay for problems in the space
segment. DOD and others involved in ensuring GPS can serve communities beyond the military have taken prudent steps to manage requirements and
coordinate among the many organizations involved with GPS. However, GAO identified challenges in the areas of ensuring civilian requirements can be
met and ensuring GPS compatibility with other new, potentially competing global space-based positioning, navigation, and timing systems.

Satellite operators have used previous solar storms as an example to protect current
communication satellites
Odenwald and Green 08 (Sten F., P.hD in Space Physics and James L., Ph.D in Space Physics, “Bracing the Satellite Infrastructure for a
Solar Superstorm”, 7/28/08, Scienfitic American Magazine,
http://docs.swansatfoundation.com/files/2008_0728_SA_Bracing_the_Satellite_Infrastructure.pdf)
Fortunately, geosynchronous communications satellites are remarkably robust against once-a-decade events, and
their life spans have grown from barely five years in 1980 to nearly 17 years today. For solar panels, engineers have
switched from silicon to gallium arsenide to increase power production and reduce mass. This move has also provided increased resistance to cosmic-ray
damage. Moreover, satellite operators receive advanced storm warnings from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center, which allows them to avoid complex satellite maneuvers or
other changes during the time when a storm may arrive. These strategies would doubtless soften the blow of a major
storm. To further harden satellites, engineers could thicken the shielding, lower the solar panel voltages to lessen the risk of
runaway electrostatic discharges, add extra backup systems and make the software more robust to data corruption. It is harder to guard against other
superstorm effects. X-ray energy deposition would cause the atmosphere to expand, enhancing the drag forces on military and commercial imaging and
communications satellites that orbit below 600 kilometers in altitude. Japan’s Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics
experienced just such conditions during the infamous Bastille Day storm on July 14, 2000, which set in motion a
sequence of attitude and power losses that ultimately led to its premature reentry a few months later. During a
superstorm, low-orbiting satellites would be at considerable risk of burning up in the atmosphere within weeks or months of the event. Lights Out At
least our satellites have been specifically designed to function under the vagaries of space weather. Power grids, in contrast, are fragile at the best of
times. Every year, according to estimates by Kristina Hamachi-LaCommare and Joseph H. Eto, both at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the U.S.
economy takes an $80-billion hit from localized blackouts and brownouts. Declining power margins over the past decade have also left less excess
capacity to keep up with soaring demands.
 2NC Airline Industry I/L
Airline industry’s cargo market is dragging down the industry
The Guardian 10/3 (Dan Milmo, staff writer, “Air freight decline means more headaches for airlines”, 10/3/11,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/oct/03/air-freight-decline-headaches-airlines?newsfeed=true)
The slump in global air cargo has more than doubled, the airline industry's leading trade body has warned, in a
bleak harbinger for the world economy that indicates weak consumer spending in the US and Europe is hitting demand for high-value exports from
Asian manufacturers. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said the air-freight market declined by 3.8% in August compared with the
same period last year, accelerating a trend that saw a 1.8% fall in July. Airline executives view the air-cargo market, which
accounts for around a third of all internationally traded goods and carries a range of high-end products from
computer chips to flowers, as a reliable indicator of the state of the global economy and their industry. Tony Tyler,
IATA chief executive, said: "The cargo trends are certainly inauspicious and if cargo is again playing the role of leading indicator, then economies – and
by extension airlines – are in for a difficult time." Asia represents nearly half of the freight market and it saw a fall of 5.4% in
August. Tyler, the former head of Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, said major carriers in the region were experiencing a slowdown in cargo. "Their
cargo numbers are driven by consumption in Europe and North America, so if their numbers are weak it is because people in Europe and North America
are not buying products." He added that there had been no sign of a recovery in September. IATA said passenger numbers are faring better than cargo
but, in line with previous downturns, demand for seats is beginning to wane. August traffic grew by 4.5% compared with the same month last year but
growth in July was 6%, signalling a weakening market. When compared with the previous month, traffic in August fell 1.6%. The IATA represents 230
airlines including the parent of British Airways, International Airlines Group, Virgin Atlantic and American Airlines, but its membership does not
include Ryanair and easyJet, who will be significant contributors to any profit generated by the industry. According to IATA estimates, airline industry
profits will slip from nearly $7bn (£4.5bn) in 2011 to less than $5bn in 2012. With a collective profit margin of just over 1%, airlines are lobbying
furiously for the relaxation of foreign takeover rules and reductions in flight taxes in order to shore up their finances. Tyler said the government's
decision last week to reduce air-passenger duty (APD) for long-haul flights from Northern Ireland was a tacit acknowledgement that APD damages the
domestic economy. "Why don't they go the whole hog, recognise that it is economically damaging, and do away with it on
mainland Britain as well? The chancellor can talk about how much he collects [in revenue] but what he cannot say is how much this industry is losing
because it has one hand tied behind its back. It is short-sighted."
 2NC GPS I/L-Resiliant
If GPS goes down there are multiple backup systems that check-no risk of economy being in the
dark
DoD et al 5 – report published by the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Transportation
(2005 Federal Radionavigation Plan, http://www.navcen.uscg.gov/pdf/frp/frp2005/2005%20FRP%20WEB.pdf)
General The Federal Government operates radio navigation systems as one of the necessary elements to enable safe transportation and encourage
commerce within the United States. A goal of the Government is to provide radio navigation services to the public in
the
most cost-effective manner possible. As the full civil potential of GPS services and its augmentations are implemented,
the demand for services provided by other Federally provided radio navigation systems is expected to decrease. The Government will reduce non-GPS-
based radio navigation services with the reduction in the demand for those services. However, it is the policy of the U.S. Government
not to rely on a single system for positioning, navigation, and timing. The U.S. Government will maintain back-
up capabilities to meet (1) growing national, homeland, and economic security requirements, (2) civil
requirements, and (3) commercial and scientific demands. Operational, safety, and security considerations will dictate the need for
complementary navigation systems to support navigation or conduct certain operations. While some operations may be conducted safely using a single
radio navigation system, it is Federal policy to provide redundant radio navigation service where required. Backups to GPS for safety-of-life
navigation applications, or other critical applications, can be other radio navigation systems, or operational
procedures, or a combination of these systems and procedures to form a safe and effective backup. Backups to GPS
for timing applications can be a highly accurate crystal oscillator or atomic clock and a communications link to a timing source that is traceable to UTC.

GPS is resilient – other satellites fill in

Perera, 08 (David, “'Space Pearl Harbor' overstated,” Government Computer News, 2/22,
http://www.gcn.com/online/vol1_no1/45866-1.html?topic=geospatial#)
However, even if the United States should find itself fighting an enemy with the will and capacity to destroy U.S.
satellites, high-bandwidth communications would continue to operate, Mosher said. 'The key here is not to protect satellites. The
key is to protect the function,' he added. That could be accomplished many ways, including ensuring that
satellite systems are robust enough to survive the loss of some of their units. A prime example is the Global Positioning
System, which consists of at least 24 satellites in medium Earth orbit. 'It would take a whole lot to significantly degrade GPS,' Mosher said. 'You'd have to
shoot a lot of satellites.' Increased use of transoceanic fiber-optic cables could also make the military less dependent on satellites. Such cabling has
already proven to be reliable and has done a great deal to reduce satellite use in the private sector, Mosher said. In any event, if a satellite-shooting war
occurs, air vehicles with sensors and routers located lower in the atmosphere than satellites would already be active. 'That just makes sense in regional
warfare anyway,' he said. A shot-down satellite would be a loss because alternatives would not perfectly compensate for the missing capacity, 'but it's not
the end of the world,' Mosher said.

We have back-up GPS assets that prevent us from losing full capabilities
McGrath 9
[THOMAS M. MCGRATH, B.S., Virginia Tech, M.S., Naval Postgraduate School “What Happens if the Stars Go Out? U.S. Army Dependence on the
Global Positioning System” 2-2009 http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada520135.pdf] AK
While GAO report 09-325 stated that the GPS constellation could fall below 95 percent reliability (Government Accounting Office 2009, 20), the
performance history of the system indicates otherwise. In his statement before the Congressional subcommittee on National Security and Foreign
Affairs, General James, USAF, Joint Functional Component Commander for Space, stated that: Although required to maintain 24 GPS
satellites on orbit at 95 percent probability, we have exceeded requirements by currently maintaining 30
operational satellites and have achieved sub-three meter accuracy. We conduct ―residual operations as an on-
going solution to mitigate any potential gap in GPS by retaining older, partially mission capable satellites in a
back-up mode that can potentially be returned to operations if a satellite in the constellation fails. Currently three vehicles are held in
residual status, and thorough in depth analysis, residual satellites are returned to the constellation every six months to ensure PNT [Position,
Navigation, and Timing] operational capability. (James 2009) The GAO report was also brought into question by the Air Force Times in an interview
with Cristina Chaplain, the GAO representative who led the report team. ―In the wake of it all, the GAO’s Cristina Chaplain, who oversaw the
investigation, now says she regrets the ―turmoil the report has caused for the Air Force. She says this while standing by her team’s findings, which she
notes the Pentagon ―fundamentally concurred with in a letter attached to the report (Iannotta 2009).
 2NC GPS I/L-No Impact
Another GPS failure is inevitable
Coursey 9 (David, technology writer, broadcaster, and marketing consultant, “GPS System Could Begin to Fail Within a Year”, PC World Business
Center, http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/165126/gps_system_could_begin_to_fail_within_a_year.html)
The Global Positioning System faces the possibility of failures and blackouts, a federal watchdog agency has warned the U.S. Congress.
Mismanagement by and underinvestment by the U.S. Air Force places the GPS at risk of failure in 2010 and beyond. The
problem: Delays in launching replacement satellites, among other things. According to the Government Accountability Office
report, "In recent years, the Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals "
as part of a $2 billion modernization program. "If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA satellites,
there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall below the
number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to." Considered
by the GAO to be "essential to national security" the GPS is also widely used by business and consumers and is a driver for next-generation location-
based mobile applications used with smartphones and other devices. "Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS users," the
GAO report states, "though there are measures the Air Force and others can take to plan for and minimize these impacts." It is hard to imagine
the U.S. government could allow this to happen. Actually, that's a lie, it's easy to imagine, but there is also time for
corrective action to be taken. The first replacement satellite is expected to be launched this November, some three years after the original launch date.
Speeding up future launches can solve the problem, but is likely to come at a high price. The American GPS, though the pioneering consumer satnav
system, is not alone. Russia, China, and India each have systems of their own, which are being expanded. The European Union's Galileo system, intended
as a rival for GPS, is expected to begin its rollout later this year. The delay and potential failure of GPS gives these other nations
the potential to rival the U.S. in space, something the U.S. government is unlikely to accept. The report is a black eye
for the Air Force, which developed the GPS system during the 1980s and has maintained it since.

GPS fails
Rawnsley 11
[Adam, is a former think-tanker and contributor to Danger Room who writes about terrorists and pirates “North Korea Jams GPS in War Game
Retaliation” http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/03/north-korea-jams-gps-in-war-game-retaliation/]
North Korea isn’t exactly following through on its threats to go to war if the U.S. and South Koreans held military exercises together. Instead,
Pyongyang is apparently resorting to a half-assed campaign of jamming and overloading web servers. North
Korea is reportedly jamming Global Positioning System (GPS) signals in South Korea, possibly in an attempt to interfere with the U.S.-South
Korean annual Key Resolve/Foal Eagle drills, which kicked off on February 28. GPS jammers work by sending a signal that interferes with the
communication between a satellite and GPS receiver. It’s a relatively simple operation, with relatively short-range effects. Thus far, cell phones
used by civilians and troops and some military equipment have been put on the fritz by the disruption attempts. But the juiciest
target for the North’s jamming efforts would be the U.S. and South Korean arsenals of GPS-directed bombs. If it
works just right, the GPS jammer can cut off a satellite-guided bomb’s ability to guide itself to target. The bomb
simply continues hurtling towards the ground in the direction it was when it lost contact with a satellite. However,
these weapons have other means of guiding themselves in the event of jamming. Take theJoint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM), a guidance kit that’s
strapped to older, “dumb” bombs to make them more accurate. In addition to GPS, the JDAM kit comes equipped with an Inertial Navigation System
(INS), which measures a bomb’s acceleration and uses the information to plot its way to a target. In the event a JDAM’s GPS signal is successfully
jammed, it can rely on its INS to guide it, although accuracy is reduced from 5 to 30 meters. That’s not the only backup for U.S. bombs. “Increasingly you
see that there are multi-mode smart munitions that have both GPS and laser guided so that if one is not working, the other can,” says John Pike, a
defense and aerospace expert and president of Globalsecurity.org. Though he’s not familiar with the specific systems used by the North Korea, Pike says
other incidents make him think the U.S. might not have much to worry about in this case. “The jammings that I have been aware of in other instances I
would place into the category of ’seriously annoying.’” North Korea is believed to have both a GPS jamming system imported from Russia and a modified
version its been shopping around the Middle East, according to South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo. Russia reportedly sold a GPS jamming system to Iraq on the
eve of the second Gulf War. And in case you missed that one, jamming wasn’t much of an issue for U.S. bombs. But jamming might not be the only info
war trick North Korea’s been up to lately. Last week, at least 29 websites were affected by a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, which targeted a
number of South Korean government, U.S. military and private sector sites. At the moment, the origin of the web traffic flood remains unknown, but
North Korea is widely suspected because of its prior history. In June 2009, South Korea intelligence attributed a series of DDoS attacks which targeted a
similar portfolio of sites to North Korea.

GPS failure inevitable without space debris

McGrath 9
[THOMAS M. MCGRATH, B.S., Virginia Tech, M.S., Naval Postgraduate School “What Happens if the Stars Go Out? U.S. Army Dependence on the
Global Positioning System” 2-2009 http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada520135.pdf] AK
In order to use the Precision Positioning Service (PPS), the receiver must be loaded with cryptography (a system that allows only the receiver to
understand the signal) in order to utilize the signal information. Without the cryptography, only the Standard Positioning Service (SPS) is received.
Without encryption, the SPS signal remains susceptible to spoofing by an adversary. ―Use of commercial SPS receivers continues to be an issue in the
Afghanistan and Iraq theaters. In a study conducted in 2006, AFSPC [Air Force Space Command] determined that many GPS-impacting interference
events were unintentional and self-inflicted, and had a significant impact on commercial (SPS) GPS receivers in theater‖ (Department of Defense 2008a,
22). Vulnerabilitiesto the GPS signal still exist even with encryption of the signal. Jamming and interference can
just as easily deter effective use of the signal as spoofing. ―The GPS signal strength measured at the surface of the Earth is about-
160dBw (1 x 10-16 watts), which is roughly equivalent to viewing a 25-watt light bulb from a distance of 10,000 miles. This weak signal can easily be
blocked by destroying or shielding the GPS receiver’s antenna. The GPS signal can also be effectively jammed by a signal of a
similar frequency but greater strength‖ (Johnston 2003, 1). Jamming can also occur through interference with own force
systems. ―Commercial television, very high-frequency transmitters, aeronautical satellite communications and
Mobile Satellite System terminals can also degrade GPS signals, and natural occurrences can cause interference that
would pose distinct problems for users, including the military‖ (Adams 2001, 13). The trend towards increased usage
of satellite and high frequency communications will continue to saturate the electromagnetic spectrum, thus
making interference with the GPS signal a continuing challenge. Even the Department of Defense (DoD) in its 2008 GPS Report
to Congress stated that, ―The potential harmful effects of interference on GPS services continue to justify attention from the DoD and civil agencies‖
(Department of Defense 2008a, 19).
 2NC Space Assets I/L
Multiple methods already have been developed to protect US space assets
Loegering 06 (Greg, BS in electronics and MS in engineering, “Dual-Redundant Antijamming Architecture for the GPS-guided Air Vehicle
Navigation System”, Spring/Summer 2006, http://www.is.northropgrumman.com/about/ngtr_journal/assets/TRJ-2006/SS/06ss_Loegering.pdf)
Nulling. One commonly used technique involves a nulling antenna or controlled-radiation patter antenna system.
A vehicle is equipped with several antennas and suitable electronics that detect a jamming signal and then point a null in the antenna radiation pattern at
the source of the jamming signal. Though moderately effective, this technique can be expensive, as the number of jammers that can be
nullified is one less than the number of antenna elements. Hence, this technique may not be effective against a large number of
inexpensive jammers. Cancellation. Another technique involves cancellation rather than removal. That is, a replica or near-replica
of that jamming signal is generated and then subtracted from the receiving signal. This technique is effective against a very
narrowband continuous-wave(CW) jamming signal, essentially a pure tone. For wider applicability, multiple CW replicas can be
generated and subtracted to counter multiple jamming signals. However, the technique is generally limited to a single type of
jammer-narrowband CW. Countering Interference. Other techniques have been proposed to counter interfering in the GPS bandwidth. One such
approach is to increase the number of bits in the analog-to digital converter (ADC) and then rely on correlation to
mitigate the effect of the jammer. This antijamming concept is based on the premise that the correlater will distinguish between GPS gold
code (a unique code generated by each GPS satellite) and a CW (tone), provide that the power level of the jammer is not so large as to send the ADC into
a saturation mode. The effects of jamming signals can also be reduced by increasing the dynamic range of ADC (with the concurrent increase in number
of bits). Like cancellation, that technique is effective against a narrow range of jammers and will not protect against
large-signal CW jammers or those that are a replica of the GPS Gold code to capture the tracking loops of the
receiver. Polarization Differences. Additional countermeasures exploit the differences in the polarization of the true GPS signal and the potential
jammer. The GPS signal is radiated using right-hand circular polarization, whereas a jammer often radiates using either horizontal or vertical
polarization. An effective suppression technique is to detect, within the GPS passband, any jamming signal that is not right-hand circularly polarized,
using antenna elements that are optimized for other single polarizations. Once the jamming signal is detected, a phase shift is added to it. The received
phase-shifted jamming signal is in turn used to subtract the jamming signal from the total signal received in the GPS passband. When the jamming
signal has been subtracted, the true GPS remains and is thus passed to the GPS receiver for processing. This approach is effective against multiple
jammers, except those that transmit their signal using right-handed circular polarization. Inertial Sensor Output. Another common jamming-mitigation
technique exploits the output of an inertial measurement unit (IMU) to give the GPS receiver a direct measure of a vehicle’s acceleration. The
acceleration data from an IMU enables the receiver to use a narrower tracking-loop bandwidth that would ordinarily be possible, so it is less vulnerable
to a giver jammer. A critical limitation; the GPS receiver must be able to read and use the data supplied by the IMU.
 1NC Steel/Auto Industry
Impact is non-unique the steel industry is already recovering from a mid-2010 collapse
Washington Times 1/5 (Patrice Hill, staff writer, “Resurgent Big Three look overseas to accelerate sales”, 1/5/11, LexisNexis)
The U.S. auto industry staged a convincing recovery last year, rebounding by 11 percent from lows set during
the recession with the sale of 11.5 million new cars and trucks in 2010. But now that Detroit's automakers are back to financial
health, they increasingly are looking overseas for sales. China and India, where yearly auto sales of 13.2 million and 12.3 million surpassed the
U.S. for the first time during the recession, will continue to be the biggest growth markets as their middle class prospers. Opportunity
also is burgeoning in other fast-growing countries including Russia and Brazil. In the U.S., Ford Motor Co. led the resurgence in sales, reporting a 19
percent jump over 2009 sales Tuesday and increased its U.S. market share for the second year in a row largely at the expense of second-ranked Toyota,
which was hobbled by safety issues during the year. Chrysler, which went bankrupt along with General Motors in 2009 and survived thanks to a
government bailout, also made a surprising comeback with a 17 percent gain in sales. GM, which started to sever its umbilical cord to the U.S. Treasury
last fall with a much-heralded stock offering, clocked in with a 6.3 percent sales gain. But GM - still the largest of Detroit's Big Three despite a massive
bankruptcy-induced downsizing - is enjoying robust sales in China and is well-positioned to take advantage of the surge in growth there. "The U.S.
auto industry is gradually recovering from its worst year since 1970," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard &
Poor's, noting that while U.S. sales rose solidly from 2009's depressed level of 10.3 million, they remain far below
the average level of 16.7 million achieved between 1998 and 2007. U.S. sales picked up at the end of 2010 to a
13 million annual rate, leading some forecasters to say the U.S. market could recover more quickly to that level or higher as consumers gain
confidence in the economic recovery and see the need to replace aging vehicles. But the U.S. will be hard-pressed to equal growth in
China, where sales skyrocketed by 53 percent in 2009 with the help of government incentives and millions of middle-class consumers buying cars for
the first time, creating a bonanza for car companies worldwide. "China's car market has grown rapidly to become the largest market for cars," said Sean
Jutahkiti, an analyst with CreditSights. "With growth consistently in the double digits, China has significantly outpaced other markets, both developing
and developed." Even with its rapid growth recently, China still has only 42 passenger cars for every 1,000 people, compared with 800 in the U.S.
Because most cars sold there are smaller than in the U.S., the average price of a new car in China is $16,000 compared with $28,000 in the U.S. For car
companies, the low penetration rate in China, which has a population more than four times that of the U.S., means there's still huge opportunities for
growth in future years. Many major automakers have established or are scrambling to establish plants and joint
ventures in China, and some such as Nissan are tailoring cars specifically for the Chinese market. John Paul
MacDuffie, a professor at Wharton Business School, said GM and its Chinese partner, Shanghai's SAIC Motor, are poised to take advantage of China's
growth. "GM already has been competing globally with considerable success. In some ways, it has been more successful in recent years outside the U.S.
than in the U.S.," he told Knowledge@Wharton magazine. "In these emerging economies, like China and Brazil and Russia and India, there's a lot of
growth. And GM is quite well-positioned in those markets," he said. "In the U.S., it's a recovery but to what will be a relatively low level of growth," he
said, noting that the historic trend on replacement volume is about 13 million a year in the U.S.

Steel industry resilient

Taccone 08 [Tony, strategy consultant to steel companies for 20 years and a founding partner of First River Consulting, a strategy consulting
boutique, “Is R for recession or resilience?”, January 9, http://www.nerdsofsteel.com/2008/01/09/is-r-for-recession-or-resilience/]
When all data are in for 2007, US exports of steel mill products will likely set a record – over 10 million tons of finished steel products. This will be the
third record year in a row for US exports. Strong export performance can be attributed to a weaker US dollar, strong global
demand for steel products, and low US prices relative to much of the rest of the world. With the dollar likely to remain weak, it is reasonable
to assume that US exports will remain close to 10 million tons, where they have been for the last few years. Exports will help mills maintain
shipment levels even in the face of weak demand. On the other side of the trade ledger, imports in 2007 are likely to have fallen by
25% from the record levels of 2006 (27 million tons in 2007 vs. 36 million tons in 2006). With steel prices rising in the US and steel
service centers replenishing inventories (explained below), it is reasonable to assume a modest increase in steel
imports in 2008, but not a deluge. A reasonable assumption is that imports will rise by 2-3 million tons in 2008 to 29 or 30 million tons for the
year. Inventories of steel products at service centers, as reported by the MSCI, will finish 2007 at around 12 million tons, the lowest level in ten years.
Most industry observers expect service centers will build inventories to recent historical levels over the course of 2008, especially in the face of rising US
prices. This inventory build, which would need to be two million tons to bring inventory levels back to their five year average, also will help cushion the
impact of declining demand on mill shipments. The net result of all this give and take is expected to be a modest decline in
mill shipments in 2008, to just over 100 million tons. See forecast below. Not a boom year, but not a disaster either. And
certainly no reason to assume the only R word we can apply to the steel industry is Recession. Given the
industry’s recent performance, R may be for the steel industry’s Resilience in the face of challenging economic
conditions.
 Exts: Impact N-U
Auto industry should have triggered economic collapse after its collapse in 2010
USA Today 10/8/10 (Sharon Silke Carty, “Auto industry sees sales slowly recovering”, 10/8/10,
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2010-10-01-auto-sales_N.htm)
DETROIT — U.S. auto sales appear to be ever-so-slowly inching back up, and a bump in September auto sales is allowing many
executives to start talking again about a recovery. But comparisons with last September are a bit deceptive: September 2009
suffered because it was the first month following the government's Cash for Clunkers rebate program, which
artificially boosted sales in July and August. September 2009 sales were depressing by comparison. Industry sales hit 11.76 million on a seasonally
adjusted annual rate, clobbering last September's sales rate of 9.4 million. That's up from a 11.47 million rate in August. " We're not going to bust
loose as you sometimes see after a downturn, but we'll see steady growth," said Don Johnson, GM's vice president of
U.S. sales. September had the uneven sales that have plagued the industry all year. The month started strong thanks to Labor Day promotions, but sales
tapered off until the final weekend, when new models and clearance sales on older ones piqued buyers' interest. George Pipas, Ford's top sales analyst,
said that though sales have seen monthly ups and downs this year, they continue to improve gradually. Buyers remain cautious, responding to
promotions and economic news, which means sales come in spurts. Still, those trends "encourage us that the buyers are out there
and that the industry recovery will continue," said Bob Carter, group vice president at Toyota Motor Sales, USA, Inc. So far, automakers
have refused to pump up sales by offering big incentives, which was the usual tactic earlier this decade. Because carmakers are now leaner
and producing fewer vehicles, they aren't forced to use big discounts to move cars off lots. Incentive spending fell 3%
from August to September to $2,683 per vehicle, according to auto pricing site TrueCar.com. But they'll try winning customers in other ways. GM has a
new in-house car financing company and plans to offer new lease programs and target buyers with poor credit, a big part of the car buying market.
General Motors' sales of cars and trucks rose 10.5% over September of last year. But sales fell about 6% from August. GM said sales of its Buick brand
rose, largely due to brisk demand for its redesigned LaCrosse luxury sedan. GM said its four remaining brands Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac saw
sales jump 22% over September of last year. The company has sold or shed the Saturn, Hummer, Saab and Pontiac brands. September is traditionally
one of the year's slower sales months, GM says. Ford says its U.S. sales rose 46% in September as it saw strong sales of
redesigned cars and trucks. Ford's sales also rose 2% from August. Ford says sales of its redesigned Ford Edge and Lincoln MKX
set monthly records. The new subcompact Fiesta also drew buyers into showrooms. Chrysler says its 61% from September of last year. The
automaker saw sales in September bump up 0.5% from the month before. Chrysler says the new Jeep Grand Cherokee
helped. The redesigned sport-utility vehicle saw sales nearly double over September of last year. Other automakers reporting Friday: • Toyota Motor's
sales rose 17% compared with September last year. But sales fell about 1% from AUgust, weighed down by a 13% drop in Lexus. •Subaru said September
sales soared 47% from the same month a year ago. But sales were down 3.6% from August. •Volkswagen said its September sales rose 15% from last year
due to stronger demand for the Jetta sedan, which the German automaker reworked for the 2011 model year with more interior space and a cheaper
price tag. They fell 13% from August. •Kia Motors rose 39% from a year ago, led by brisk sales of the Sorento crossover.But they fell 7% from August.
•Nissan sales rose 34% versus last September. But fell 3.4% from August, as sales of both its Infiniti and Nissan brand vehicles fell.
 Exts: Resiliant
Steel industry is resilient-developments are fostered by emerging international markets
SteelOrbis 10 (“OECD: Global steel industry recovering faster than expected”, 4/11/10, http://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/oecd-
global-steel-industry-recovering-faster-than-expected-530618.htm)
The global steel industry is recovering faster than expected from the recession but the strength and timing of
the upturn varies across regions, according to industry and government officials at the OECD's Steel Committee meeting in Paris held on
May 6-7, 2010. Further improvements are expected in the short term, although it is said that it may take years for some parts of the sector to fully
recover. "The global steel industry is experiencing signs of recovery from the recession. Worldwide, steel mills are
now running at approximately 80 percent of capacity, after having slipped below 60 percent at the end of 2008. The recovery that
began around mid-2009 has been supported by government stimulus spending and the rebuilding of inventories in some economies. The strength
and timing of the upturn has varied across regions, however. Emerging markets in Asia are leading the recovery, supported by
government stimulus spending on infrastructure and a rebound in manufacturing activity. Demand for steel in the developed economies started to
improve at a later stage, the upturn has been slower, and the recovery is occurring from a lower base. Consumption of steel across much of the OECD is
still significantly below the pre-recession levels of mid-2008," said OECD Steel Committee chairman Risaburo Nezu. The OECD's short-term
outlook suggests further improvements in the market, though it may take several years for some industries to
fully recover from the downturn. However, some important changes are to be anticipated. While past
developments have been primarily driven by China, in the future global production, consumption and capacity
developments will also be heavily influenced by other emerging economies. As for developments in China, delegates noted
that demand growth for steel might slow down while capacity continues to increase. Questions were raised as to how the Chinese industry would deal
with such a situation and the impact this may have on the global steel market. Delegates expressed their interest in China's forthcoming iron and steel
development policy, to be released in June. Concerns about the market structure of some raw material industries and the effects this may have on the
stability of the steel and downstream industries have intensified. Delegates also called for improved transparency and a lifting of barriers affecting trade
of raw materials to improve the industry's unrestricted access to raw materials. This is an issue that is appropriately addressed by governments and their
competition authorities.
 1NC Pandemics f/l
Science means extinction is impossible

a.) Any disease that kills its host too fast will die off
Understanding evolution 07 – Website on Evolution from UC Berkeley (December, "Evolution from a virus's view,"
http://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/071201_adenovirus)

Since transmission is a matter of life or death for pathogen lineages, some evolutionary biologists have focused
on this as the key to understanding why some have evolved into killers and others cause no worse than the
sniffles. The idea is that there may be an evolutionary trade-off between virulence and transmission. Consider a
virus that exploits its human host more than most and so produces more offspring than most. This virus does a
lot of damage to the host — in other words, is highly virulent. From the virus's perspective, this would, at first, seem like a good thing; extra
resources mean extra offspring, which generally means high evolutionary fitness. However, if the viral reproduction completely
incapacitates the host, the whole strategy could backfire: the illness might prevent the host from going out and
coming into contact with new hosts that the virus could jump to. A victim of its own success, the viral lineage
could go extinct and become an evolutionary dead end. This level of virulence is clearly not a good thing from the
virus's perspective.

b.) Natural Immunities

Sowell 01 – Fellow at Hoover Institution (Thomas, March 5, Jewish World Review, “The Dangers of “Equality”,
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell030501.asp)

People have different vulnerabilities and resistances to a variety of diseases. That is why one disease is unlikely
to wipe out the human species, even in one place. An epidemic that sweeps through an area may leave some
people dying like flies while others remain as healthy as horses.
Several factors prevent the spread
Gladwell 95 - graduated from the University of Toronto, Trinity College, with a degree in history, named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most
Influential People, New York bureau chief of The Washington Post (Malcom, July 17, “Epidemics: Opposing Viewpoints”)

This is what is wrong with the Andromeda Strain argument. Every

infectious agent that has ever plagued humanity has had to
adopt a specific strategy, but every strategy carries a corresponding cost, and this makes human counterattack
possible. Malaria is vicious and deadly, but it relies on mosquitoes to spread from one human to the next, which
means that draining swamps and putting up mosquito netting can all but halt endemic malaria. Smallpox is
extraordinarily durable, remaining infectious in the environment for years, but its very durability, its essential rigidity, is what
makes it one of the easiest microbes to create a vaccine against. aids is almost invariably lethal because its
attacks the body at its point of great vulnerability, that is, the immune system, but the fact that it targets blood
cells is what makes it so relatively uninfectious.
I could go on, but the point is obvious. Any microbe capable of wiping us all out would have to be everything at once:
as contagious as flu, as durable as the cold, as lethal as Ebola, as stealthy as HIV and so doggedly resistant to
mutation that it would stay deadly over the course of a long epidemic. But viruses are not, well,
superhuman. They cannot do everything at once. It is one of the ironies of the analysis of alarmists such as
Preston that they are all too willing to point out the limitations of human beings, but they neglect to point out
the limitations of microscopic life forms.
If there are any conclusions to be drawn about disease, they are actually the opposite of what is imagined in books such as The Hot Zone and The Coming
Plague. It is true that the effect of the dramatic demographic and social changes in the world over the past few decades is to create new opportunities for
disease. But they are likely to create not homogeneous patterns of disease, as humans experienced in the past, so much as heterogeneous patterns of
disease. People are traveling more and living in different combinations. Gene pools that were once distinct are
mixing through intermarriage. Adults who once would have died in middle age are now living into their 80s.
Children with particular genetic configurations who once died at birth or in infancy are now living longer lives.
If you talk to demographers, they will tell you that what they anticipate is increasing clusters of new and odd
diseases moving into these new genetic and demographic niches. Rare diseases will be showing up in greater numbers. Entirely
unknown diseases will emerge for the first time. But the same diversity that created them within those population subgroups will keep them there. Laurie
Garrett's book is mistitled. We are not facing "the coming plague." We are facing "the coming outbreaks."

Extinction genetically impossible and ahistorical

Posner 2005 (Richard A., Judge U.S. Court of Appeals 7th Circuit, Professor Chicago School of Law, January 1, 2005, Skeptic, Altadena, CA,
Catastrophe: Risk and Response, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html#abstract)
Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its
existence is a source of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction events. There have been
enormously destructive plagues, such as the Black Death, smallpox, and now AIDS, but none has come close to
destroying the entire human race. There is a biological reason. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter
in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too
quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by lying dormant yet infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread.
Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human race. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would
cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times, when
people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider human contacts that make it more difficult to
localize an infectious disease. The reason is improvements in medical science. But the comfort is a small one. Pandemics can still impose enormous
losses and resist prevention and cure: the lesson of the AIDS pandemic. And there is always a lust time. That the human race has not yet been destroyed
by germs created or made more lethal by modern science, as distinct from completely natural disease agents such as the flu and AIDS viruses, is even less
reassuring. We haven't had these products long enough to be able to infer survivability from our experience with them. A recent study suggests that as
immunity to smallpox declines because people am no longer being vaccinated against it, monkeypox may evolve into "a successful human pathogen," (9)
yet one that vaccination against smallpox would provide at least some protection against; and even before the discovery of the smallpox vaccine,
smallpox did not wipe out the human race. What is new is the possibility that science, bypassing evolution, will enable monkeypox to be
"juiced up" through gene splicing into a far more lethal pathogen than smallpox ever was.
 Exts – Kill Hosts
No Impact- diseases will kill the hosts off too quickly to spread.
Schwartz 97 – Science writer for Washington Post B.A University of Texas at Austin and graduated from University of Texas Law (John, January
19, "Battling an Outbreak Of Hype", http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/style/longterm/books/reviews/virusx.htm)

Little wonder, then, that Ryan really begins to cook as he draws sweeping scientific conclusions toward the end of the book. He writes that "viruses, so
often thought to be nothing more than parasites, play a much wider role" in nature's grand plan. He takes on the vexing issue of why viruses that coexist
in relative harmony with their natural hosts emerge to attack humans with such lethal force. Because a bug that wipes out its target
population will become extinct itself, it's sound evolutionary strategy to reach an accommodation instead, and
to "co-evolve" with the host over time. Ultimately, the bugs aren't out to kill us, Ryan explains: They just want
to move in, like microscopic Kato Kaelins.
New hosts for the virus haven't had time to reach this accommodation, and so the initial encounters tend to be
tragic. Yet once adapted, the viral guests aren't mere freeloaders: Ryan suggests that they become part of the
host's armamentarium against turf invaders.
Because we are the invaders of so many remote corners of the Earth, we run into these "unwitting knights of nature. . . . Although not primarily designed
to attack humanity, human exploitation and invasion of every ecological sphere has directed that aggression our way." Ryan ends with a call for better
monitoring of and response to emerging diseases -- and, just to make sure we get the message, conjures up a hypothetical "virus X," a true doomsday bug
as lethal as Ebola Zaire but with the airborne transmission abilities of measles. Brrrrrrrrrrr.
Regis, on the other hand, steadfastly refuses to fret, and takes on the increasingly popular apocalyptic notion
that emerging diseases are somehow "Gaia's revenge" on humanity for overdevelopment. He scorns Preston's idea
that "in a sense, the earth is mounting an immune response against the human species" and Garrett's notion that "the microbes were
winning."
Many more Americans have been killed by lightning than the 700 Ebola deaths worldwide, yet "nobody spoke of
lightning as 'the revenge of the thunderclouds,' even though there was abundant talk of Ebola as 'the revenge of the rain forest'," Regis sneers. This
proliferation of new viral threats is an "illusion," Regis says. What's new are the tools of detection. "The better
the CDC got at identifying the pathogens that caused age-old but hitherto unrecognized diseases, the more it
looked as if scads of trailblazing new microbes were out there amassing themselves for attack, gathering their
forces, and preparing to bring us 'the coming plague'."

It’s impossible for a pathogen to spread if it had the capacity to kill a large amount of people. It
simply wouldn’t spread.
Davidson 01 – Chronicle Science Writer (Keay, April 23,"Compassionate parasite Microscopic creatures could kill host quickly, but that might
threaten their own survival," http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/04/23/MN138648.DTL, AD: 6/30/09)

Classic problem' of evolution

For decades, evolutionary
biologists speculated that if a species of pathogen is to survive, it should wreak only so
much infectious havoc, and no more. It is "a classic problem" of evolution, said famed evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould of Harvard
University.
"You wonder, `Why would anything limit its own capacity to do what it's doing?' " Gould said. "And the obvious Darwinian
answer is: If
it kills its host, it (ultimately) kills itself - and that's not to its advantage."
Although this theory of pathogenic self-control is supported by observations of the spread of infectious organisms,
direct evidence has remained elusive. And no one knew exactly how a microbe might short-circuit its own proliferation - until now.
 Exts – Immunities
Human adaptation
Gladwell 95 - graduated from the University of Toronto, Trinity College, with a degree in history, named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most
Influential People, New York bureau chief of The Washington Post (Malcom, July 17, “Epidemics: Opposing Viewpoints”)

In Plagues and Peoples, which appeared in 1977. William MeNeill pointed out that…while man’s efforts to “remodel” his environment are sometimes a
source of new disease. They are seldom a source of serious epidemic disease. Quite the opposite. As humans and new microorganisms
interact, they begin to accommodate each other. Human populations slowly build up resistance to circulating infections.
What were once virulent infections, such as syphilis become attenuated. Over time, diseases of adults, such as measles
and chicken pox, become limited to children, whose immune systems are still naïve.
 a/t: TB

No threat in the U.S.

Science Daily, 8 (“Cases Of Extensively Drug-resistant TB Declining Each Year In The US, But New Cases Still,” 11-21-2008,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081111182900.htm)

(Nov. 21, 2008) — A

new report suggests that the number of cases of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB)
in the U.S. has declined in the past fifteen years, but new cases continue to be reported, according to a new study. Researchers
note the decrease in the number of XDR-TB cases coincides with improved TB and HIV/AIDS control.
"Tuberculosis remains the leading cause of infectious disease death among adults worldwide," the authors provide as background information. "In recent
years, drug-resistant TB has emerged as an expanding threat, with an estimated 489,000 new cases in 2006. Treatment of multidrug-resistant TB
(MDR-TB) is more than 100 times as costly as treatment of drug-susceptible TB, requiring intensive case management for its prolonged (18-24 months)
and more toxic treatment course." Treatment success rates are lower for patients with MDR-TB as compared to those with drug-susceptible TB. In 2005,
a new category of TB disease was defined -- extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) – because TB cases with even great drug resistance had emerged,
especially in settings of high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence throughout the world. J. Peter Cegielski, M.D., M.P.H., from the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, and colleagues, analyzed 15 years of national surveillance data to describe the epidemiology of XDR-TB in
the U.S. and to identify its unique characteristics as compared to MDR-TB and drug-susceptible TB cases. The analysis was based on all culture-
confirmed cases of TB reported by the 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1993 through 2007. XDR-TB was defined as resistance to isoniazid, a
rifamycin, a fluoroquinolone, and at least one of amikacin, kanamycin, or capreomycin based on drug susceptibility test results from initial and follow-up
specimens. "A total of 83 cases of XDR-TB were reported in the United States from 1993 to 2007," the authors report.
"The number of XDR-TB cases declined from 18 (0.07 percent of 25,107 TB cases) in 1993 to 2 (0.02 percent of 13,293 TB cases)
in 2007 …" The authors note that of the "40 XDR-TB cases reported during 1993 – 1997, 25 (62 percent) were known to be HIV-infected. During 1998
– 2007, only 6 (14 percent) of 43 XDR-TB cases were known to be HIV-infected." Of the 83 XDR-TB cases, the majority were between the ages of 25 to
44 years, 64 percent male, U.S.-born, and unemployed (53 percent). Forty-percent (33 patients) were Hispanic and three cases (4 percent) occurred
among health care workers. Patients with XDR-TB were more likely to be Hispanic and correctional facility residents compared with drug-susceptible TB
cases. "Twenty-six XDR-TB cases (35 percent) died during treatment, of whom 21 (81 percent) were known to be HIV-infected. … Death rates were
nearly two times greater than among MDR-TB cases and more than six-times greater than among drug-susceptible TB cases. Infection with HIV played
an important role in both the occurrence and outcomes of XDR-TB cases," the authors state. "Preventing the further emergence of drug resistance is
paramount and must include not only TB program strengthening to ensure that patients complete their treatment regimen but also general health
system interventions to improve infection control. Greater vigilance regarding drug resistance must include systematic second-line drug susceptibility
testing according to published guidelines. Lessons gained from MDR-TB in the 1990s should be applied: Patients must be identified early, treated
effectively, and assisted to complete treatment, and infection control precautions must be in place to prevent further emergence and transmission of
XDR-TB," the authors conclude.

Global vaccine solves.

Pillscribe 09 – (April 24 “Upcoming TB vaccine looks promising”, http://www.dancewithshadows.com/pillscribe/upcoming-tb-vaccine-looks-
promising-mva85aaeras-485/)

MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine has been awarded orphan drug status by the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) and is the most clinically advanced of a
new generation of tuberculosis vaccine candidates. The new vaccine – MVA85A/AERAS-485 – is considered the most exciting
advance in the field of TB vaccines for over 80 years. MVA85A/AERAS-485 - promising vaccine for tuberculosis - is passing
through a crucial phase of development in Cape Town, South Africa. MVA85A/AERAS-485 is developed at the
University of Oxford. The MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine candidate will be put to Phase IIb proof-of-concept trials in
South Africa by the Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation, the Oxford-Emergent Tuberculosis Consortium
Ltd. Isis Innovation Ltd., the Wellcome Trust and the University of Cape Town (UCT). The MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine
study will be conducted by the South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative (SATVI) of UCT in the Western Cape Region from its study site 100 km from
Cape Town in Worcester, South Africa. This study will test MVA85A/AERAS-485 in approximately 2,784 children under one year of age, all of whom
have received Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) at birth. MVA85A/AERAS-485 human studies have been approved by the Medicines Control Council of
South Africa - the country’s drug regulatory authority. MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine has been awarded orphan drug status by the European Medicines
Agency (EMEA) and is the most clinically advanced of a new generation of tuberculosis vaccine candidates. “We believe this is the most exciting advance
in the field of TB vaccines for over 80 years,” said Dr Helen McShane of the Jenner Institute, University of Oxford, “and is a testament to the
commitment shown by the partners and funders involved. We have shown that this vaccine is safe and stimulates strong immune responses. This trial
will hopefully show that the vaccine can protect people from getting TB and enable the global community to
begin to control this devastating disease.” The Phase 2b studies will evaluate MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine candidate’s safety,
immunogenicity and preliminary efficacy. This is the first proof-of-concept trial of a new preventive TB vaccine in infants in more than 80 years.
MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine is being tested in an area burdened by one of the highest incidence rates of TB in the world, in a community most likely to
benefit from its success, according to the partners. Approximately one out of every three people on the planet is affected with tuberculosis or TB. TB kills
1.8 million people per year and more than two billion people worldwide are infected with TB. BCG is currently the only available vaccine against TB.
BCG, which is administered to infants throughout the developing world and in certain countries in the developed world, provides some protection
against pediatric TB. However, BCG provides only variable protection against pulmonary tuberculosis, which accounts for most of the worldwide disease
burden. “The world desperately needs new and better approaches to combat TB,” said Dr. Marcos Espinal , executive
secretary of the Stop TB Partnership. “The
advancement of a new TB vaccine candidate to this stage is an exciting
development for all of us who seek to end this terrible epidemic .”MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine candidate is intended to boost
the response of T-cells already stimulated by the BCG vaccine given in the childhood. Previous clinical trials of MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine in adults
have demonstrated consistently high cellular immune responses in those who received the MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine candidate following
vaccination with BCG. “There is still a long road ahead, but this marks an important milestone toward the goal of a
more effective TB vaccine,” said Jerald C Sadoff, MD, president & CEO of the Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation. The Aeras Global TB
Vaccine Foundation is working with the Consortium to develop MVA85A/AERAS-485 with additional funding from the Wellcome Trust.
MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine candidate was originally developed at the University of Oxford by Dr. Helen McShane, a Wellcome Trust Senior Clinical
Research Fellow, working with Dr. Sarah Gilbert, a Reader in Vaccinology and Professor Adrian Hill, a Wellcome Trust Principal Research Fellow.
MVA85A/AERAS-485 vaccine was licensed by Isis Innovation, the University’s technology transfer company to the Oxford-Emergent TB Consortium in
July 2008. “This marks an important milestone in what we believe is an extraordinary opportunity to prevent
tuberculosis, which is a major global health crisis. Emergent is proud to join such distinguished partners as we make progress in the
fight against one of the world’s deadliest diseases,” said Fuad El-Hibri, chairman and chief executive officer at emergent BioSolutions.
 A/T: Global Katrina Scenario
The same disaster predictions for a massive solar storm were exaggerated before the peak of the previous
solar cycle in 2000.
Borenstein, The Gazette, 1999
(Seth, The Gazette “Solar wind blows strong: A big storm is building in space, and it's due to hit Earth next year. Solar winds will gust up to a million
miles an hour. But why did those winds drop earlier this year?” Lexis Nexis, accessed 7-23-11, ASR)

As scientists, utilities and communication experts prepare to cope with a dangerous period of sun storms next
spring, they are still shaking their heads over a solar mystery that left them baffled earlier this year. Last May, the million-mile-per-hour solar wind,
which regularly blasts Earth with highly charged electrons that can disrupt communications, virtually stopped for more than a day. Scientists gathering
at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco are trying to figure out what happened. Astronomers say the episode illustrates the
limits of their knowledge about our solar system; just as they think they're getting a handle on it, the nearest star in the sky presents a new gigantic
puzzle. Starting at midday on May 10 and continuing through early May 12, the sun's regular bombardment of Earth with streaming electrons dropped
by more than 99 per cent. This kind of break has happened before, scientists say, but never at this magnitude. ''It was a curveball,'' said John Steinberg
of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. ''We were looking for this very fast fastball.'' The periodic peak of solar storms,
which occurs every 11 years or so and will arrive again next spring, ''is when all hell breaks loose,'' said NASA
solar physicist Barbara Thompson. The expected onslaught of solar-storm electrons could disrupt Earth's
satellite communications and utility power lines, much as a similar period of solar storms did in 1989. Those
storms played havoc with Hydro-Quebec's system.

Even one of the biggest solar storms that hit in 2003 did not cause any damage
O'CONNOR and WALD, NYT, 2003
(ANAHAD and MATTHEW L., NYT, “A Huge Solar Storm, but Little Impact Is Seen” October 30, 200,
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/30/us/a-huge-solar-storm-but-little-impact-is-seen.html3 , accessed 7-23-11, ASR)

One of the largest solar upheavals ever recorded bombarded Earth yesterday with a speeding cloud of charged
particles, prompting officials in the United States and Canada to warn airline passengers and crew members that they could be exposed to abnormally
high levels of radiation. Aside from that warning, there were few disruptions from a continuing event that has the
potential to interfere with air travel, telecommunications and electricity generation over much of the planet . The
Federal Aviation Administration warned passengers on aircraft over 25,000 feet north of the 35th parallel, which passes through Chattanooga, Tenn.,
and Albuquerque, that they would accumulate about two millirems of radiation per hour, or two days' worth of normal radiation exposure on the ground.
Operators of electric power systems across the continent, meanwhile, took precautions to prevent the storm
from causing blackouts. Only minor effects were reported, said Larry Combs, a space weather forecaster with
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo. ''The power companies are trying to avoid operating over capacity,'' Mr.
Combs said.
***Solvency
 1NC Solar Storms f/l
No solar flares coming
O’Neil 8 (Ian O’Neill (PhD) is founder and editor of Astroengine. He is a space producer for Discovery News. O’Neill is a British solar physics doctor
with nearly a decade of physics study and research experience, Masters and PhD from University of Wales, Aberystwyth, “2012: No Killer Solar Flare,”
June 21, 2008, http://www.universetoday.com/14645/2012-no-killer-solar-flare)

Can Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare? The short answer to this is “no”. The longer answer is a little more involved. Whilst a solar
flare from out Sun, aimed directly at us, could cause secondary problems such as satellite damage and injury to unprotected astronauts and blackouts,
the flare itself is not powerful enough to destroy Earth, certainly not in 2012. I dare say, in the far future when the Sun
begins to run out of fuel and swell into a red giant, it might be a bad era for life on Earth, but we have a few billion years to wait for that to happen.
There could even be the possibility of several X-class flares being launched and by pure bad luck we may get hit
by a series of CMEs and X-ray bursts, but none will be powerful to overcome our magnetosphere, ionosphere
and thick atmosphere below. “Killer” solar flares have been observed on other stars. In 2006, NASA’s Swift observatory saw the largest stellar
flare ever observed 135 light-years away. Estimated to have unleashed an energy of 50 million trillion atomic bombs, the II Pegasi flare will have wiped
out most life on Earth if our Sun fired X-rays from a flare of that energy at us. However, our Sun is not II Pegasi. II Pegasi is a violent red giant star with a
binary partner in a very close orbit. It is believed the gravitational interaction with its binary partner and the fact II Pegasi is a red giant is the root cause
behind this energetic flare event. Doomsayers point to the Sun as a possible Earth-killer source, but the fact remains
that our Sun is a very stable star. It does not have a binary partner (like II Pegasi), it has a predictable cycle (of
approximately 11 years) and there is no evidence that our Sun contributed to any mass extinction event in the past via
a huge Earth-directed flare. Very large solar flares have been observed (such as the 1859 Carrington white light flare)… but
we are still here. In an added twist, solar physicists are surprised by the lack of solar activity at the start of this
24th solar cycle, leading to some scientists to speculate we might be on the verge of another Maunder minimum and “Little Ice Age”. This is in
stark contrast to NASA solar physicist’s 2006 prediction that this cycle will be a “doozy”. This leads me to conclude that we still have a long
way to go when predicting solar flare events. Although space weather prediction is improving, it will be a few years yet
until we can read the Sun accurately enough to say with any certainty just how active a solar cycle is going to
be. So, regardless of prophecy, prediction or myth, there is no physical way to say that the Earth will be hit by
any flare, let alone a big one in 2012. Even if a big flare did hit us, it will not be an extinction event. Yes, satellites may
be damaged, causing secondary problems such as a GPS loss (which might disrupt air traffic control for example) or national power grids may be
overwhelmed by auroral electrojets, but nothing more extreme than that.

STEREO already provides complete coverage of the sun-new data increases knowledge about
solar storms
Kaiser 09 (Michael L., M.S. in Astronomy, “STEREO: Science and Mission Overview”, http://techdigest.jhuapl.edu/TD/td2802/Kaiser.pdf)
In this article, we have presented some of the
very early data obtained by the STEREO spacecraft when they were still quite close
together. During the ensuing
months, the widening separation allowed three-dimensional viewing of coronal loops
and other small structures to be made and, on a larger scale, two-spacecraft triangulation of solar storms. These
three-dimensional and triangulation measurements should greatly improve our understanding of solar storms from their origins to their propagation
through space between the Sun and Earth. This research could pave the way to better predictions of the arrival of solar
storms at Earth, important for many diverse aspects of our electronic world and likely of importance to future astronauts. As the spacecraft
separated more and more, the Behind spacecraft began to see beyond the Earth-facing eastern limb of the Sun. Since the Sun rotates from east to west,
Behind’s view can provide a preview of upcoming storms and other solar activity that will eventually rotate around to face Earth. This also will be
very important for longer-term forecasts of space weather. Eventually, the two spacecraft will be 180° apart and
will provide, for the first time, a complete view of the entire Sun, allowing us to monitor the continually
changing solar surface and active regions. Serendipity will continue to play an important and unpredictable role in the STEREO mission.
There is no doubt that the wide-angle views provided by the SECCHI suite will be important for many areas of non-solar research such as comet science
and variable star monitoring. Also, the very orbits of the STEREO spacecraft take them through regions of the inner
solar system that have been sampled either very rarely or not at all by previous missions and will undoubtedly
produce some surprising results about the composition of our solar system.
No risk of nuclear meltdowns
Beller, 4 - Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Dr. Denis E, “Atomic Time Machines: Back to the Nuclear
Future,” 24 J. Land Resources & Envtl. L. 41, 2004)

No caveats, no explanation, not from this engineer/scientist. It's just plain safe! All
sources of electricity production result in health
and safety impacts. However, at the National Press Club meeting, Energy Secretary Richardson indicated that nuclear power is safe by stating,
"I'm convinced it is." 45 Every nuclear scientist and engineer should agree with that statement. Even mining,
transportation, and waste from nuclear power have lower impacts because of the difference in magnitude of
materials. In addition, emissions from nuclear plants are kept to near zero. 46 If you ask a theoretical scientist, nuclear energy does have a potential
tremendous adverse impact. However, it has had that same potential for forty years, which is why we designed and
operate nuclear plants with multiple levels of containment and safety and multiple backup systems. Even the
country's most catastrophic accident, the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979, did not injure anyone. 47 The fact is,
Western-developed and Western-operated nuclear power is the safest major source of electricity production.
Haven't we heard enough cries of "nuclear wolf" from scared old men and "the sky is radioactive" from [*50] nuclear Chicken Littles? We have a
world of data to prove the fallacy of these claims about the unsafe nature of nuclear installations. [SEE FIGURE IN
ORIGINAL] Figure 2. Deaths resulting from electricity generation. 48 Figure 2 shows the results of an ongoing
analysis of the safety impacts of energy production from several sources of energy. Of all major sources of
electricity, nuclear power has produced the least impact from real accidents that have killed real people during
the past 30 years, while hydroelectric has had the most severe accident impact. 49 The same is true for environmental and
health impacts. 50 Of all major sources of energy, nuclear energy has the least impacts on environment and health while coal has the greatest. 51 The low
death [*51] rate from nuclear power accidents in the figure includes the Chernobyl accident in the Former Soviet Union. 52

There is no factual basis for claims of solar storms wiping out Earth’s electrical grid
Gary 10 (Stuart, ABC Sciences Expert, “Solar Max Claims ‘Overstated’, 8/72/10,
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/08/27/2995543.htm)

Australia's leading body responsible for monitoring space weather has dismissed claims that a massive solar
storm could "wipe out the Earth's entire power grid". One report quotes an Australian astronomer as saying "the storm is likely to
come sooner rather than later". But Dr Phil Wilkinson, assistant director with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's
Ionospheric Prediction Service, says claims that this coming solar maximum will be the most violent in 100
years are not factual. "All this talk about gloom and doom has selling power, but I'm certain it's overstated," says Wilkinson. "[It's] going far
beyond what's realistic and could be worrying or concerning for people who don't really understand the
underlying science behind it all." "The real message should be that the coming solar maximum period could be
equally as hazardous as any other solar maximum." 11-year cycle The Sun goes through an 11-year solar cycle moving from a period of
low activity called solar minimum to a time of heightened activity called solar maximum. During solar maximum there's an increase in sun spot activity,
which are dark patches on the Sun's surface caused by magnetic field lines breaking through from deep below. Because the Sun isn't a solid object like the
Earth, different parts of the Sun rotate at different speeds, which cause these field lines to twist and stretch, eventually snapping like elastic bands. When
they snap they produce an eruption of electromagnetic energy called a solar flare, which can be accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME). If
directed at Earth, charged particles within the CME slam into the magnetosphere, resulting in the northern and southern auroral lights. Previous CME
events have damaged spacecraft, interfered with communications systems and overloaded ground-based power grids. Aware of the problems Despite
the potential threat, Wilkinson says authorities are aware of issues and are taking precautions. "We monitor
solar activity and give out warnings if something is heading our way," says Wilkinson. "That will be at least a
few hours [in advance], enough time to prepare." He says while some satellites could be damaged by a future CME, others could be
protected by being placed in 'safe mode'. Wilkinson adds the impact on power grids would be minimal. "At worst, it's a
regional thing, not a global thing as these reports imply." He says high frequency communications may also be affected, but it would
be temporary. Low maximum According to Wilkinson, the Sun has been through a long solar minimum and appears to be
heading into a low solar maximum. Previous observations have shown this could result in high spikes of CME
activity. "It means we could see auroral activity over all of Australia rather than just the higher latitudes," says
Wilkinson. "It's unusual, but not unprecedented. James Cook made mention of just such an event off Timor." is so low that other
processes stop them. The Earth's magnetic field also helps deflect particles, especially near the equator. I don't remember
numbers, but I would guess that in the last 40 years, the most flare particles did was double for a few hours the cosmic ray
intensity to which all life is exposed continually, day in and day out.
 Exts – Not Coming
No flares coming-the sun is entering a period of hibernation
Andrew 11 (July 25th. 2011, "Are Solar Flares Easing Up?" http://www.offthegridnews.com/2011/07/25/are-solar-flares-easing-up/)
Scientists at the U.S. National Solar Observatory have determined that the
sunspot cycle is heading into a period of rest. Their
reports are based on fading sunspots, a missing jet stream, and slower-than-usual activity near the sun’s poles.
These findings were discovered late in the current sunspot cycle, and indicate that the next sunspot cycle (due to begin around 2019) would be a period of
hibernation.
Hibernation periods mean that the sun will have a lessened effect on Earth and the other planets in our solar
system. There will be little to no danger of sunspot activity or massive solar flares that could disrupt our
technology. Researchers suggest that if the hibernation period is deep enough, it could potentially have a slight
cooling effect on the Earth for some number of years.

NASA's solar shield solves

Heiser 10 (James, 11/8/10, "NASA's "Solar Shield" Will Warn of Solar Weather," http://thenewamerican.com/tech-mainmenu-30/space/5126-
nasas-qsolar-shieldq-will-warn-of-solar-weather, RG)

NASA’s answer to the problem — a Solar Shield — is somewhat of a misnomer, in that it will not actually shield the Earth from all of
the effects of a solar flare. Instead, it s a bit miore like a weather radio alert of an approaching storm, except that instead of citizens unplugging
televisions to protect them from lightning, Solar Shield will warn the power companies to “unplug” those portions of the grid
most likely to be damaged, thus hopefully avoiding a catastrophic failure.
NASA satellites would identify and track CMEs, which can take as long as two days to reach Earth after a solar flare.
Approximately 30 minutes before the storm reaches Earth.
 Exts-STEREO Solves
Status quo solves
Information Week 8-22-2011 (“NASA Improves Solar Storm Forecasting” http://informationweek.com/news/government/enterprise-
apps/231500464) BW

NASA is using new data-processing techniques aboard a solar observational spacecraft to better predict when
solar storms may hit Earth, providing new forecasting ability that could help determine their effects.
NASA has been observing solar storms--called coronal mass ejections (CMEs)--from its twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)
spacecrafts since their launch in 2006.
Solar storms--billion-ton clouds of solar plasma launched by the same sun explosions that spark solar flares--can be dangerous because they can damage
satellites, disrupt communications, and cause power grid failures on Earth, according to NASA. Because of this, scientists have been working
to try to predict their occurrence and their behavior.
New image-processing techniques scientists are using on STEREO are allowing them to see how solar
eruptions develop into space storms on Earth, providing better information for space weather models to
improve storm forecasting, according to Lika Guhathakurta, STEREO program scientist at NASA headquarters in Washington.
Data centers are bursting with unstructured content that needs to be stored.
Cloud Storage for Dummies explains the benefits of cloud storage and details how to get started.
Previously, STEREO could not clearly show an image of the structure of a solar storm as it traveled toward Earth. This meant forecasters had to estimate
when storms arrived without knowing the details of how they might grow and the effect they might have, according to NASA.
New images from cameras on one of the spacecraft reveal detailed features of a large CME in late 2008 that
was directed toward Earth. The images connect the original magnetized structure in the sun's corona to the anatomy of the storm as it hit the
planet three days later.
The spacecraft's wide-angle cameras made the images possible by detecting ordinary sunlight scattered by free-
floating electrons in plasma clouds, according to NASA. The clouds are bright and easy to see when they first
leave the sun, but become more difficult to detect as they expand into the void.
"Separating these faint signals from the star field behind them proved especially challenging, but it paid off," said Craig DeForest, scientist at the
Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo.
Through these observations, NASA scientists not only can predict the arrival time of a CME on Earth, but also its mass,
according to NASA. The brightness of the cloud enabled researchers to calculate the cloud's gas density
throughout the structure and compare it to direct measurements by other NASA spacecraft.
In the future, scientists can use this same technique to determine whether the Earth will be hit by a small or
large cloud, and where on the sun the material originated, according to NASA.
STEREO consists of two observatories that orbit the sun, one ahead of Earth and one behind. The observatories are a
part of NASA's Solar Terrestrial Probes program, which seeks to understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment.

NASA’s new Solar Shield project solves – already gives advanced notice to specific transformers
that will be targeted by the storm
Phillips 10 (Dr. Tony, , production editor of Science@NASA, “Solar Shield--Protecting the North American Power Grid”, 10/26/10,
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/ )

Oct. 26, 2010: Every hundred years or so, a solar storm comes along so potent it fills the skies of Earth with blood-red auroras, makes compass needles
point in the wrong direction, and sends electric currents coursing through the planet's topsoil. The most famous such storm, the Carrington Event of
1859, actually shocked telegraph operators and set some of their offices on fire. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warns that if such a
storm occurred today, we could experience widespread power blackouts with permanent damage to many key transformers. A new NASA project
called "Solar Shield" could help keep the lights on. "Solar Shield is a new and experimental forecasting system
for the North American power grid," explains project leader Antti Pulkkinen, a Catholic University of America research
associate working at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe we can zero in on specific transformers and predict
which of them are going to be hit hardest by a space weather event." The troublemaker for power grids is the
"GIC" – short for geomagnetically induced current. When a coronal mass ejection (a billion-ton solar storm cloud) hits Earth's
magnetic field, the impact causes the field to shake and quiver. These magnetic vibrations induce currents almost everywhere, from Earth's upper
atmosphere to the ground beneath our feet. Powerful GICs can overload circuits, trip breakers, and in extreme cases melt
the windings of heavy-duty transformers. This actually happened in Quebec on March 13, 1989, when a geomagnetic storm much less
severe than the Carrington Event knocked out power across the entire province for more than nine hours. The storm damaged transformers in Quebec,
New Jersey, and Great Britain, and caused more than 200 power anomalies across the USA from the eastern seaboard to the Pacific Northwest. A similar
series of "Halloween storms" in October 2003 triggered a regional blackout in southern Sweden and may have damaged transformers in South Africa.
While many utilities have taken steps to fortify their grids, the overall situation has only gotten worse. A 2009 report by the North American Electric
Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the US Department of Energy concluded that modern power systems have a "significantly enhance[d] vulnerability
and exposure to effects of a severe geomagnetic storm." The underlying reason may be seen at a glance in this plot: Solar Shield (power lines, 550px)
Growth of the High Voltage Transmission Network and annual electric energy usage in the United States over the past 50 years. Credit: North American
Electric Reliability Corporation and the US Dept. of Energy. Since the beginning of the Space Age the total length of high-voltage power lines
crisscrossing North America has increased nearly 10 fold. This has turned power grids into giant antennas for geomagnetically induced currents. With
demand for power growing even faster than the grids themselves, modern networks are sprawling, interconnected, and stressed to the limit—a recipe for
trouble, according to the National Academy of Sciences: "The scale and speed of problems that could occur on [these modern grids] have the potential to
impact the power system in ways not previously experienced." A large-scale blackout could last a long time, mainly due to transformer damage. As the
National Academy report notes, "these multi-ton apparatus cannot be repaired in the field, and if damaged in this manner they need to be replaced with
new units which have lead times of 12 months or more." Solar Shield (transformer damage, 200px) Permanent damage to the Salem New Jersey Nuclear
Plant GSU Transformer caused by the March 13, 1989 geomagnetic storm. Photos courtesy of PSE&G. [larger image] That is why a node-by-
node forecast of geomagnetic currents is potentially so valuable. During extreme storms, engineers could
safeguard the most endangered transformers by disconnecting them from the grid. That itself could cause a
blackout, but only temporarily. Transformers protected in this way would be available again for normal
operations when the storm is over. The innovation of Solar Shield is its ability to deliver transformer-level
predictions. Pulkkinen explains how it works: "Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection
(CME) billowing away from the sun. Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the
cloud from as many as three points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it
will arrive." While the CME is crossing the sun-Earth divide, a trip that typically takes 24 to 48 hours, the Solar Shield team prepares to
calculate ground currents. "We work at Goddard's Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)," says Pulkkinen. The CCMC is a place
where leading researchers from around the world have gathered their best physics-based computer programs for modeling space weather events. The
crucial moment comes about 30 minutes before impact when the cloud sweeps past ACE, a spacecraft stationed
1.5 million km upstream from Earth. Sensors onboard ACE make in situ measurements of the CME's speed,
density, and magnetic field. These data are transmitted to Earth and the waiting Solar Shield team. "We
quickly feed the data into CCMC computers," says Pulkkinen. "Our models predict fields and currents in
Earth's upper atmosphere and propagate these currents down to the ground." With less than 30 minutes to go,
Solar Shield can issue an alert to utilities with detailed information about GICs.

NASA monitoring solves any risk

Phillips 11 (Dr. Tony, Science writer and editor at NASA, June 22nd 2011, "Getting ready for the next big solar
storm,"http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-06-ready-big-solar-storm.html//HT)
"We can now track the progress of solar storms in 3 dimensions as the storms bear down on Earth," says Michael Hesse, chief of
the GSFC Space Weather Lab and a speaker at the forum. "This sets the stage for actionable space weather alerts that could
preserve power grids and other high-tech assets during extreme periods of solar activity." They do it using data
from a fleet of NASA spacecraft surrounding the sun. Analysts at the lab feed the information into a bank of
supercomputers for processing. Within hours of a major eruption, the computers spit out a 3D movie showing where the
storm will go, which planets and spacecraft it will hit, and predicting when the impacts will occur . This kind of
"interplanetary forecast" is unprecedented in the short history of space weather forecasting. "This is a really exciting time to work as
a space weather forecaster," says Antti Pulkkinen, a researcher at the Space Weather Lab. "The emergence of
serious physics-based space weather models is putting us in a position to predict if something major will
happen." Some of the computer models are so sophisticated, they can even predict electrical currents flowing in the soil of Earth when a solar storm
strikes. These currents are what do the most damage to power transformers. An experimental project named
"Solar Shield" led by Pulkkinen aims to pinpoint transformers in greatest danger of failure during any particular
storm. "Disconnecting a specific transformer for a few hours could forestall weeks of regional blackouts," says
Pulkkinen.

Power grid shut-down solves any risk of blackouts

Slavo 11 (Mac, 2011, "Solar Threat: We’ll Have Minutes to Respond; Government Plans Controlled Blackouts; Elite Contingency
Plans,"http://theintelhub.com/2011/06/14/solar-threat-we%E2%80%99ll-have-minutes-to-respond-government-plans-controlled-blackouts-elite-
contingency-plans/HT)

The Space Weather Prediction Center, which is an organization tasked with watching the sun and identifying potentially damaging solar events, plans
on responding to solar flares headed towards our planet by shutting down key power grid systems. Satellites
deployed throughout our solar system are constantly monitoring the sun. When they detect a potentially
damaging effect, the Prediction Center’s goal is to immediately activate emergency procedures and contact key
personnel through the country who would be responsible for shutting down our grid . A solar flare will give
researchers and analysts about 2 – 3 days to respond – which seems to be plenty of time if a massive solar flare
is detected. In recent months we’ve seen several X-class solar flares headed towards Earth. If targeted directly at our
planet, a high enough level X-class flare could take down elements of the grid, and in several historical instances flares have done just that. But with solar
storms heating up, and the recent massive eruption detected last year, scientists are worried about even stronger “X+” flares, or Y-class events. The
Space prediction center should be able to detect all classes of these flares, and if executed properly, can protect
the grid if one is determined to be heading towards Earth.

Preventitive measures solve blackouts

Chivers '10 -- Telegraph.co.uk's Strategic Events Editor (Tom, 2011, "Nasa's 2013 solar flare warning: how much do we need to
worry?"http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tomchivers/100008500/nasas-2013-solar-flare-warning-how-much-do-we-need-to-worry/, RG)
Of course, if a proper “Carrington event” happens again, it has the potential to be far more problematic now than in 1859 when electric communication
was barely in its infancy. Dr Clark says “There is absolutely no reason to believe that we are heading for solar armageddon
in 2013, but sooner or later we should expect there to be another Carrington event and that is what these
scientists [at NASA] are trying to prevent. Legislation in the US has just passed Congress to help harden the
grid against solar flares.”
So – it’s a real thing, and we should be concerned. But preventive measures can be taken – satellites can be sent offline
during big flares, power grids and communication networks can be shielded against electromagnetic radiation
and so on. As Dr Bamford says: “The extreme events like the 1859 Carrington Event are 1-in-100-year probabilities,
about the same probability as a storm of the level of Katrina hitting New Orleans – and New Orleans did not build their
defences to withstand the extreme-but-unlikely magnitude. 100 years isn’t that long.
“But the end of the world it is not. Maybe as disruptive as an ash
cloud, but not as protracted I’m sure.” She
gives examples of precautions, like a GPS backup system called eLoran, or active mini-magnetosphere shielding for astronauts
and satellites that her team have designed.

Status quo tech solves the impact

CTV '10 (Staff writer at Canada am (2011, "No need to fear strong solar flares in 2013:
NASA,"http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/CanadaAM/20100923/solar-flares-100923/HT)

A solar physicist at NASA says there's no reason to think that strong solar flares expected in 2013 will disrupt life on
earth, a day after a British official warned they could bring power and communications systems to a grinding halt. "Solar flares happen all the
time," NASA's Jeffrey Newmark said from Washington. "The key is, how do we mitigate?" At a conference earlier this week, British Secretary of
Defence Liam Fox caused a stir by warning that a once-in-a-century solar flare could bring modern life to a halt by paralyzing power grids and disabling
satellite communications. Fox said the British government has been working with experts and private companies to
"build collective resilience" against the effects of a powerful solar flare. "Much of our critical national
infrastructure depends on data and services delivered from, or through satellites, whose sensitive electronics
are vulnerable to some of the radiation emitted by the sun," Fox said. NASA has predicted that a new wave of solar activity will
likely peak around 2013. But the agency maintains that the stronger flares will be similar to those that earth has
experienced as recently as 2002. Newmark told Canada AM that the sun goes through 11-year cycles and solar flares are indeed expected to
intensify over the next few years -- but they should be "business as usual." The planet has experienced a solar cycle "maximum"
before, he said Thursday morning, "and we understand what to expect from the future." NASA has a fleet of spacecraft
that monitor solar activity so that the agency can predict the sun's behaviour, Newmark said. The space agency also has a warning system in place in the
event of unusually powerful solar flares, he said, that could help safeguard power grids and satellites. In 1859, a "super solar flare" knocked out telegraph
lines around the world and lit paper on fire at telegraph offices. In today's high-tech world, a similar event could cause billions of dollars in damage, by
some estimates. Newmark acknowledged that our wired societies make them more vulnerable to solar events. "However, at the same time the
technology we use enables us to better understand these events, better predict them and enable us to mitigate
them," he said.

Squo solves – laundry list of new technology currently protects earth from solar storms
R.I.T. - 8/01/11, “Warning System Could Protect Power Grid, Satellites from Space Storms” http://www.rit.edu/news/story.php?id=48456
Dube and his group of seven students have
made significant advances in the ability to predict space weather storms
affecting Earth. Their research agenda has expanded to include a variety of solar physics and stellar physics objectives: •
Recognizing features on the sun for use in a predictive process • Studying different aspects of coronal mass
ejections • Linking activity on the sun (such as sunspots) with other types of impacts on Earth (such as the aurora borealis
and radio storms) • Studying solar-wind drag on coronal mass ejections • Tracking the movement of spots on stars to
determine rotational speed The essence of Dube’s research lies in complex pattern recognition problems. The neural network his team
developed digests the massive amount of data taken from different types of variables, such as electricity and magnetism.
Another variable includes the concentrations of nitrates from the upper atmosphere that have settled in ice cores taken at the North Pole. “What’s
happening is that we’re able to recognize these precursors in this data that’s within half a day of the event. That’s good,
but we’d really like to have it several days in advance so that you could do something about it,” Dube says. “For example, with enough warning we can
turn our satellites away from the sun so they don’t get hurt by the particles that hit them as the storm passes.”

NO RISK OF POWER GRID FAILURE - SOLAR SHIELD PROGRAM PREVENTS MELTDOWN

DAILY TECH 2010 ["NASA looks to protect U.S. power grid with 'Solar Shield' project",
http://www.dailytech.com/NASA+Looks+to+Protect+US+Power+Grid+with+Solar+Shield+Project/article20
020.htm] ttate
To protect power systems in the event that another powerful solar storm should occur, NASA has developed a
project called "Solar Shield," which has the potential to shelter high-voltage power lines that crisscross over North America. Considering the
length of these power lines has "increased nearly 10 fold" since the beginning of the Space Age, it is critical to consider the affect a solar storm could have
on power systems in the United States and throughout the world.
"Solar Shield is a new and experimental forecasting system for the North American power grid," said Antti
Pulkkinen, project leader and Catholic University of America research associate currently working with NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center. "We believe we can zero in on specific transformers and predict which of them
are going to be hit the hardest by a space weather event."
Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) are the main problems when it comes to power grids during geomagnetic
storms. When a CME approaches Earth's magnetic field, it causes the field to shake. This quiver causes currents from the
ground to Earth's upper atmosphere, and powerful GICs can trip breakers, overload circuits and melt the windings of transformers. Transformer damage
leads to large-scale blackouts, and these transformers cannot be repaired in the field. They must be replaced, which is both expensive and time
consuming.
"Solar Shield springs into action when we see a coronal mass ejection (CME) billowing away from the sun," said
Pulkkinen. "Images from SOHO and NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show us the cloud from as many as three
points of view, allowing us to make a 3D model of the CME, and predict when it will arrive."
The CME typically takes 24 to 48 hours to cross the Sun-Earth divide. During this time, NASA researchers at the Goddard Community Coordinated Modeling Center
(CCMC) are gathering physics-based computer programs to model the CME. Thirty minutes before impact, ACE, a spacecraft stationed 1.5 million km
"upstream from Earth," uses its sensors to make in situ measurement's of the CME's magnetic field, density and speed, then sends the data to the Solar Shield
team on Earth. The data is fed into CCMC computers where models predict currents and fields in Earth's upper atmosphere and transmit this
information to the ground. The Solar Shield team is then prepared to send alerts to utilities with details about the
GICs.

STATUS QUO SOLVES - ESA AND OTHERS HAVE DEVELOPED EFFECTIVE MONITORING
CAPABILITIES - WE ARE SAFE FROM IMPACTS OF SOLAR STORMS
TG DAILY 2010 ["New system predicts solar storms - but ESA says satellites are safe", http://www.tgdaily.com/space-
features/51348-new-system-predicts-solar-storms-but-esa-says-satellites-are-safe] ttate
Researchers have developed a new method of predicting solar storms that they say could help to avoid power
and communications blackouts. The next major solar storms are expected in 2012 and 2013 as part of the sun’s 11-year weather cycle. A 2008
US NationalAcademy of Sciencesreport estimated that modern reliance on electronics and satellite communications means a major storm could cause twenty
times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina. Up to now, solar weather prediction has been carried out manually, with
experts looking at 2D satellite images of the sun and assessing the likelihood of future activity. But
a team from the University of
Bradford’s Centre for Visual Computing has now created the first online automated prediction system, using
3D images generated from the joint NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (SOHO). It's already being put
into use by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA).The Automated Solar Activity Prediction system (ASAP) identifies and
classifies sun spots and then feeds this information through a model which can predict the likelihood of solar flares. The system is able to accurately
predict a solar flare six hours in advance, says the team. "By creating an automated system that can work in real time, we open up the possibility for
much faster prediction and – with sufficient data – prediction of a wider range of activity," says reader in visual computing Dr Rami Qahwaji. "With
NASA’s new Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite which came into operation in May, we have the chance to
see the sun’s activity in much greater detail which will further improve our prediction capabilities.” The system can
be seen at work here. However, according to the European Space Agency, there's little chance that satellites will
actually be fried by solar storms. The agency is shortly to launch its first four operational Galileo satellites.

STEREO and ACE provide complete monitoring of the Earth-STEREO at the L5 point and ACE at
the L1 point
Foust 11 (Jeff, is the editor and publisher of The Space Review. He also operates the Spacetoday.net web site and the Space Politics and NewSpace
Journal weblogs, “When the Sun Sneezes”, 2/21/11, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1783/1)
Aiding those forecasts are data from a number of spacecraft. Of particular utility right now are NASA’s twin STEREO spacecraft, in
heliocentric orbits slowing drifting ahead of and behind the Earth. This month, the spacecraft moved into positions 90
degrees on either side of the Earth, and thus 180 degrees apart from each other , allowing them to provide a complete view
of the Sun. Such data allow scientists to catch solar activity before it rotates into view of the Earth, providing advanced warning of those storms. While
the STEREO spacecraft will continue to drift away from the Earth, Bogdan said NOAA is studying a concept for a
solar observing satellite at the Earth-Sun L5 point, 60 degrees behind the Earth, which would provide several
days’ warning of solar activity before it rotates into view of the
Earth.
Another key satellite for space weather studies and warnings is the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), located at the Earth-
Sun L1 point about 1.5 million kilometers Sunward of Earth. It can provide advanced warning of the slower charged particles
that follow the initial storm, arriving at Earth as long as 48 to 72 hours later. Because of its location, it can measure the
severity of that charged particle front and transmit that data to the Earth at the speed of light roughly 20–30 minutes before
the particles arrive, giving governments and businesses a last-minute warning to take steps to mitigate the storm’s effects.
STEREO has already provided breakthrough knowledge on solar storms
Roussev 08 (Ilia, Ph.D from School of Mathematics and Physics of the Queen’s University Belfast, "Eruptive events in the Solar Atmosphere: New
Insights from Theory and 3-D Numerical Modeling”, 7/24/08, http://c2h2.ifa.hawaii.edu/media/papers/Roussev_JCP2008_Published.pdf)
The solar atmosphere continues to be one of the richest and most dynamic environments studied in modern astrophysics. Spanning many orders of
magnitude in density and temperature, while inextricably linked to the complex system of magnetic fields, the Sun displays a myriad of interesting
phenomena from sunspots in the photosphere to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) – the most energetic events in the solar system. Even at its most
quiescent, the Sun hurls into space a billion ton cloud of charged particles from the solar corona on average
once every 2 days 1 . The charged particles that are produced during CMEs can strike our planet, and in some cases they can disrupt satellites and
knock out power systems on the ground. These particles, along with the intensive X-ray radiation from flares, also endanger human life in outer space.
That is why it is important to understand and predict the ever changing environmental conditions in outer space due to solar storms – the so-called
space weather. Coronal mass ejections are one of the most astonishing manifestations of solar activity in which vast amounts of magnetic flux (*10 13–15
Wb) and solar plasma (*10 12–13 kg) are ejected from the low corona into interplanetary space (see e.g. [1]). These mass ejections were first
discovered in 1973 during the Skylab mission as bright features protruding from the solar limb, and at that
time they were called coronal transients. During later space missions, such as SoHO (Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory), TRACE (Transition Region Analyser and Coronal Explorer), and most recently STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations
Observatory), it has been realised that CMEs are not some isolated, transient features seen by a particular
instrument, but a full-fledged solar phenomenon spawning a rich variety of other processes on the Sun. Over
the past 35 years, the solar community has been very active in understanding the physical causes of CMEs . For
a long time, it was thought that solar flares were the dominant sources of geomagnetic activities [2]. A different
paradigm, however, has been put forth by [3] in which CMEs, not flares, have been regarded as the main
drivers of non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. Today’s view is that CMEs and solar flares are interrelated (see e.g. [4]).
The two phenomena have been recognised to be two different manifestations of a single physical process that
involves a major restructuring of the coronal magnetic field. Statistical studies of CMEs based on SoHO and TRACE observations
have indicated that a large fraction of solar flares (20%) are associated with CMEs, and that more than 50% of the CMEs are associated with erupting
prominences (see e.g. [1]). At present, the main requirement for CME models dictated by observations is two-fold. First, any physical model developed to
explain solar eruptions has to account for the fundamental trigger of the eruption. Second, these models must explain the wide variety of features that
form and develop in the eruptive process, such as bright Ha ribbons on the solar disk, rising soft X-ray and Ha loop systems in the corona, among other
processes (see e.g. [5]). These features, as revealed by both space- and ground-based solar observations, demonstrate
the complex nature of CMEs. This paper summarises the current state of understanding of the origin and dynamics of CMEs, through theory
and modeling. The next section discusses the physical requirements that need to be met by the models in order to agree with the relevant observations of
solar eruptive events. Sections 3 and 4 describe in detail the two most common groups of CME models to illustrate the basic physical principles involved:
the flux-rope models are presented in Section 3 and the sheared-arcade models in Section 4. The more advanced models are discussed in Section 5. The
production of SEPs during CME events, and their modeling, is discussed in Section 6. The concluding remarks and future prospects for CME and SEP
modelling are presented in Section 7.

Pandey et al 10 (S.K., Department of Physics, Rewa Engineering College, Rahul Shrivastava, Department of Physics, Govt Girls College, L.K.
Borkar, Department of Physics, Govt College, Umariya, Aka Tripathi, Department of Physics, S.G.S. Govt P.G. College, Sidhi, S.C. Dubey, Department of
Physics, S.G.S. Govt P.G. College, Sidhi, “Study of sunspots and sunspot cycles 1–24”, June 2010, http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/10jun2010/1496.pdf)
The Sun’s great conveyor belt has slowed down to a record-low crawl, according to Hathaway 19 . This will have important repercussions on future solar
activity. This belt is a massive circulating hot plasma within the Sun. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to complete one
circuit. Researchers believe that the turning of the belt controls the sunspot cycle. The conveyor belt moves about 1 m s –1 . In recent years, the belt has
decelerated to 0.75 m s –1 in the north and 0.35 m s –1 in the south. According to theory and observation, the speed of the belt foretells the intensity of
sunspot activity ~20 years in the future; Hathaway predicted that the sunspot cycle 25 peaking around the year 2022 could be one of the weakest in
centuries. We agree with the above prediction and plot the sunspot cycle 25 on basis of different variation trends, as shown in Figure 6. NASA is gearing
up to study the active Sun during the sunspot cycle 24 with the launch of a new spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). SDO will join Solar
and Heterospheric Observatory (SOHO), the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), Hinode and other missions already in orbit to improve
our understanding of solar storms and lay the groundwork for better space weather forecasts.
 Exts – Cant Solve
Timeframe is 2013
Phillips 09 – production editor of Science at NASA, (Dr. Tony, NASA“ New Solar Cycle Prediction” http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-
at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/)

May 29, 2009: An internationalpanel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new
prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.
"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,"
says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great
geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for
2013."
The 1859 storm--known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare--electrified
transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read
newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred
today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years
for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only" $80 to 125 billion in damage.

No – our only observatory is ready to break down – current system fails

The Independent 6/13 (Citing Tim Bogdan, head of the US Space Weather Prediction Centre, Tom Bogdan: 'The sky at night stops me from
sleeping', http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/tom-bogdan-the-sky-at-night-stops-me-from-sleeping-2296759.html)

The Sun is now emerging from the lowest period of inactivity since the space age took off 50 years ago. Last
week's event is almost certain to be just the start of a cycle that is expected to peak in 2013. It is during this
rising activity that we can expect the Earth to be buffeted by some devastating solar storms.
 Exts-NASA Solves
NASA MONITORING SOLARE FLARES WITH SATELLITES NOW AND PREPARING
CONTINGENCY PLANS, NO THREAT FROM SOLAR FLARES
HOUGHES ’10 (A former executive on the newsdesk, he joined the paper after working at the Old Bailey, the London Evening Standard and
Reuters. The Australian formerly worked in Adelaide as an award-winning reporter, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-
solar-flares-from-huge-space-storm-will-cause-devastation.html)
Dr Fisher said precautions could be taken including creating backup systems for hospitals and power grids and allow development on satellite “safe
modes”.“If you know that a hazard is coming … and you have time enough to prepare and take precautions, then you can avoid
trouble,” he added.His division, a department of the Science Mission Directorate at Nasa headquarters in Washington DC, which
investigates the Sun’s influence on the earth, uses dozens of satellites to study the threat.The government has said it was aware of the
threat and “contingency plans were in place” to cope with the fall out from such a storm.These included allowing for certain
transformers at the edge of the National Grid to be temporarily switched off and to improve voltage levels throughout the network. The
National Risk Register, established in 2008 to identify different dangers to Britain, also has “comprehensive” plans on how to handle a complete outage
of electricity supplies.

NASA’S FLEET OF SATELLITES ACTIVELY DETECTING SOLAR FLARES IN THE SQUO NOW,
NO NEED FOR DSCOVR
NASA ’10 (“As the Sun Awakens, NASA Keeps a Wary Eye on Space Weather”, http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-
nasa/2010/04jun_swef/>)
Earth and space are about to come into contact in a way that's new to human history. To make preparations, authorities in Washington DC are holding a
meeting: The Space Weather Enterprise Forum at the National Press Club on June 8th. Richard Fisher, head of NASA's Heliophysics
Division, explains what it's all about:"The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much
higher levels of solar activity. At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms.
The intersection of these two issues is what we're getting together to discuss."The National Academy of Sciences framed the problem two years ago in a
landmark report entitled "Severe Space Weather Events—Societal and Economic Impacts." It noted how people of the 21st-century rely on high-tech
systems for the basics of daily life. Smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be
knocked out by intense solar activity. A century-class solar storm, the Academy warned, could cause twenty times more economic damage than
Hurricane Katrina.Much of the damage can be mitigated if managers know a storm is coming. Putting satellites in 'safe mode' and disconnecting
transformers can protect these assets from damaging electrical surges. Preventative action, however, requires accurate forecasting—a job that
has been assigned to NOAA."Space weather forecasting is still in its infancy, but we're making rapid progress," says Thomas Bogdan, director
of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado. Bogdan sees the collaboration between NASA and NOAA as key. "NASA's fleet of
heliophysics research spacecraft provides us with up-to-the-minute information about what's happening on the sun. They are an
important complement to our own GOES and POES satellites, which focus more on the near-Earth environment." Among dozens of
NASA spacecraft, he notes three of special significance: STEREO, SDO and ACE.STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory)
is a pair of spacecraft stationed on opposite sides of the sun with a combined view of 90% of the stellar surface . In the past, active
sunspots could hide out on the sun's farside, invisible from Earth, and then suddenly emerge over the limb spitting flares and CMEs. STEREO makes
such surprise attacks impossible.SDO (the Solar Dynamics Observatory) is the newest addition to NASA's fleet. Just launched in
February, it is able to photograph solar active regions with unprecedented spectral, temporal and spatial resolution. Researchers can
now study eruptions in exquisite detail, raising hopes that they will learn how flares work and how to predict them. SDO also monitors
the sun's extreme UV output, which controls the response of Earth's atmosphere to solar variability. Bogdan's favorite NASA satellite,
however, is an old one: the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) launched in 1997. "Where would we be without it?" he wonders.
ACE is a solar wind monitor. It sits upstream between the sun and Earth, detecting solar wind gusts, billion-ton CMEs, and radiation
storms as much as 30 minutes before they hit our planet."ACE is our best early warning system," says Bogdan. "It allows us to notify
utility and satellite operators when a storm is about to hit.” NASA spacecraft were not originally intended for operational forecasting—"but it
turns out that our data have practical economic and civil uses," notes Fisher. "This is a good example of space science supporting modern society."2010
marks the 4th year in a row that policymakers, researchers, legislators and reporters have gathered in Washington DC to share ideas about space
weather. This year, forum organizers plan to sharpen the focus on critical infrastructure protection. The ultimate goal is to improve the nation’s ability to
prepare, mitigate, and respond to potentially devastating space weather events. "I believe we're on the threshold of a new era in which space weather can
be as influential in our daily lives as ordinary terrestrial weather." Fisher concludes. "We take this very seriously indeed

***Counterplans
 1NC Protection Strategy CP
Text: The President of the Unites States of America should require that the White House Office
of Science and Technology Policy develop and coordinate a comprehensive strategy to prepare
for a solar storm that includes: expanding funding and accelerate research and development of
next-generation power conversion technologies, and investments in smart grid technologies,
automated protective mechanisms and voltage stabilization systems.

The smart grid, automated responses, and voltage stabilization solve response time, response
effectiveness, and recovery from a solar storm
Sovacool 11 (May 2011, Benjamin K. Sovacool, prof of Public Policy, PhD in Science and Technology Studies, and Christopher Cooper, Prof of
Political Science and Public Affairs, Ph.D in Political Science, Director of the Public Policy Institute, The Electricity Journal, Volume 24, Issue 4, Pages
47-61 “Not Your Father's Y2K: Preparing the North American Power Grid for the Perfect Solar Storm,”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619011000972#sec0040)
D. Use smarter grid technologies to improve situational awareness As the bulk transmission system expands in size and
complexity, system operators face conditions that are more difficult to anticipate, model, and counter. While many utilities have spent substantial
amounts installing phasor measurement units (PMU) and collecting real-time data on system status, this torrent of data can overwhelm many operators.
As more data is produced and disseminated, it creates a challenge for operators to find the bits that they need and process them quickly enough to make
prudent decisions.48 And once they have formulated a plan of action, most operators are limited to using conventional power flow controls employing
mechanical switches that are slow, inflexible, and vulnerable to wear.49 Improving situational awareness would allow system
operators to react more quickly to threats from solar storms and other geomagnetic disturbances. The more rapidly system
operators can intervene, the more likely that they can avert a blackout.50 Under some emergency situations, even the most seasoned system operator has
limits. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have built models that reveal that advanced automatic control systems that communicate with one
another independent of the operator can respond more effectively.51 Quick response may be critical in preventing a minor outage
from becoming a major blackout. An improved ability to respond more quickly using more complex system
information significantly increases system resiliency and could substantially mitigate the impacts of a severe
solar storm.52 E. Expand automatic protective mechanisms Currently, special operational schemes designed to protect the grid lack the ability to
adapt as a solar event is affecting different parts of the system.53 A smarter grid is capable of data analysis and near-real-time
coordination of control actions that could provide greater protection during a massive geomagnetic
disturbance, especially if organized on a regional or national scale. For some time, grid operators have employed a triage
approach to widespread system failure, including removing or sacrificing small portions of the system to save the whole.54 Some regional system
operators, for example, have turned to emergency load shedding as a mechanism to protect networks from system disturbances. Selective load shedding
is a utility's method of reducing demand on the transmission system by temporarily switching off the distribution of electricity to specific customers. The
utility pays customers that are willing to have their service interrupted during a grid emergency. Facing rolling blackouts in 2007, ERCOT, for example,
developed an Emergency Interruptible Load Shedding (EILS) program that pays qualified customers to power down during an emergency that threatens
the ERCOT grid.55 Still, participation in contracted load shedding schemes is limited, typically representing less than 5 percent of a system's peak
load.56 Additionally, most emergency load shedding still relies on a relatively slow process, with system operators conferring to decide whether to deploy
emergency interruptible loads and calling qualified customers, who then have a set period of time from receiving the call to contact relevant personnel
with instructions to power down.57 This process is inherently slow, unreliable and dependent on communications systems that are themselves at risk
during a major solar storm. Recently, utilities have experimented with smart grid components like intelligent feeder switches and real-time protective
devices that can isolate faults and switch to on-site electrical storage devices or distributed generation units without needing to wait for supervisory
control and data acquisition (SCADA) commands from network control centers. This technique, known as dynamic islanding, generally has been used in
areas with frequent electrical outages, where load centers are fed by older lines and aging infrastructure or areas where dense vegetation can come into
contact with electrical lines and cause transmission interruptions.58 But the expansion of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) could make dynamic
islanding a more practical method for reacting to system-wide disturbances by automating the process of remotely managing customer loads. Given
sufficient development and deployment of AMI, utilities will be able to create islands at will. Thus, critical loads such as hospitals, police stations, water
treatment facilities, transportation fuel distribution nodes, and control centers themselves can maintain power while the system strategically reduces
power flows to less critical load centers.59 Improved automation that allows more strategic dynamic islanding is especially
critical in preventing secondary impacts to interdependent systems.60 Dynamic islanding of critical
infrastructure minimizes the time needed to restore the system, mitigates secondary effects, and increases
survivability.61 Early deployment of smart grid components and prepositioning of distributed generation, if
planned carefully, also can benefit utilities beyond safeguarding critical infrastructure. Dynamic islanding can provide an
immediate fix for a problematic network or short-term extension of a portion of an aging network, allowing utilities to defer capital investments until
they are more convenient or fiscally imperative.62 A smarter grid provides utilities and system operators with a better way to
implement emergency load shedding and dynamic islanding in response to severe solar storms. It would harness
modern communication and IT infrastructures to provide instantaneous bi-directional communication among control centers and grid components. A
smarter grid can process vast numbers of data transactions and deliver sub-second responses to system
components designed to implement emergency load shedding more quickly and strategically.63 When alerted
to an approaching solar storm, control rooms could launch computer models that simulate the path of induced
currents under specific conditions. These simulations can help system operators identify the most vulnerable
assets and determine a strategic load shedding scheme to protect them. The smart grid can then communicate automatically
to begin powering down interruptible loads and commanding connected assets to take protective measures. By facilitating an automated and
dynamic response, a smarter grid could react more quickly to protect only vulnerable assets while maintaining
optimal service (under the circumstances) to critical load centers. This faster and more dynamic response ensures less service interruption during a
severe solar storm and far less recovery after one. F. Automate voltage stabilization Voltage stability is critical to preventing transformer losses from
triggering cascading voltage collapse that risks bringing down large portions of the bulk power grid. Typically, operators regulate voltage control devices
with locally available measurements of voltage and current. On lines with multiple voltage regulation and VAR compensation devices, each device is
controlled independently without regard for the resulting consequences of action taken by other control devices. This can lead to problems when trying
to regulate large voltage fluctuations within a geographically broad area.64 Smart grid applications allow voltage and VAR control
devices to share information and evaluate comprehensive control strategies automatically to optimize voltage
stabilization during a crisis. Accelerated adoption of substation and feeder automation technology, coupled with the widespread deployment of
AMI, would lay the groundwork for automated control systems to optimize voltage control in real time. Recent innovations in contingency modeling in
complex networks holds the promise of rapidly identifying optimal voltage and VAR operation strategies from millions, if not billions, of operational
possibilities.65 G. Invest in domestic manufacturing of system components As part of this comprehensive strategy to prepare for a
severe solar storm, the
federal government should pursue efforts to bring more of the supply chain and
manufacturing base for critical system components like transformers, shunt capacitors, and static VAR
compensators back to the United States. In addition, the government should expand funding and accelerate research and development of
next-generation power conversion technologies like gallium nitride transformers that can increase efficiency while providing greater capacity to
withstand large DC currents induced by solar storms.66 This research not only would help to jump-start a domestic component industry, it would ensure
that spare parts and key system technologies are more available in the event of a severe solar storm. H. Coordinate policy action The SWPC is the
only governmental entity charged with coordinating space weather forecasting. But there is no single agency
responsible for coordinating space weather information across agencies, reporting actionable alerts to affected
industries, and overseeing a system-wide emergency response. Responsibility for various aspects of CME preparedness is
scattered throughout the U.S. federal government. Consequently, affected industries rely on data haphazardly
gleaned from multiple government offices, foreign governments, international agencies, and the private
sector.67 The SWPC should be charged with developing, in consultation with public and private sector
stakeholders, an action plan to deliver by 2012 accurate near-real-time alerts and short- and long-term space
weather forecasts. However, to ensure that all of these recommendations are adopted as part of a comprehensive
strategy to prepare the North American bulk power system for a severe solar storm, we propose that Congress
or the President require the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to develop a plan for
coordinating accurate, sustainable operational measurements of solar activity through a central office with
operational authority to issue comprehensive forecasts and alerts and to coordinate emergency response across
affected utilities and the multiple jurisdictions and government agencies already charged with regulating
critical infrastructure. The SWPC operates with a very small and unpredictable annual budget of less than $6 million (and modest additional
funding from the United States Air Force for data preparation associated with selected operations). The National Research Council has characterized this
insubstantial appropriation as “more reflective of a research and development (R&D) enterprise than an operational enterprise with real-time national
space weather prediction responsibility.”68 Despite benefiting directly from SWPC's modeling and forecasting reports, the other six agencies that
participate in the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) – NASA, the Department of Commerce, the National Science Foundation, the Department of
the Interior, the Department of Energy, and the Department of State – currently do not contribute to SWPC's operating budget. Congress should fully
fund SWPC either through a dedicated appropriation or annual permanent funding from each of the participating agencies, or both. This funding should
reflect the important role the Center will assume in preparing the nation for a potential electrical catastrophe. V. Conclusion President Jimmy Carter
once wrote that the United States either could develop a national energy policy in an “intuitive and planned way,” or reactively when “forced to” by
“chaos” and the “laws of nature.”69 Given the likelihood that the nation (indeed the planet) will face a severe solar storm with potentially devastating
consequences,70 his comments suggest that we have a rare opportunity to avoid, or at least mitigate, impending disaster through careful planning and
preparation. The history of past solar storms—events inducing telegraphs to catch fire in 1859 and causing the Canadian grid to collapse in 1989—should
be enough to convince readers of the vulnerability of our transmission lines, transformers, and voltage controls to solar activity. Rather than react,
however, planners and system operators can respond proactively by strengthening NERC reliability standards to incorporate the probability of solar
storms and by making investments in more reliable near-term space weather forecasts. An active solar storm early warning and alert system would help
warn system operators before an event and coordinate responses after it. Perhaps most significantly, investments in smart grid technologies, automated
protective mechanisms and voltage stabilization systems (and their domestic manufacture) simultaneously would improve grid resiliency and efficiency.
Institutionally, the Space Weather Prediction Center should be better funded and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy should
develop an action plan for handling a serious solar storm. While it may be difficult during this time of fiscal austerity to imagine devoting substantial
funds to a threat that we have never had to face, a comprehensive plan to prepare for a severe solar storm will cost far less now than will addressing the
catastrophic impacts to the North American electricity grid when the perfect solar storm finally arrives.

The counterplan is key to create a coordinate a response across jurisdictions

Sovacool 11 (May 2011, Benjamin K. Sovacool, prof of Public Policy, PhD in Science and Technology Studies, and Christopher Cooper, Prof of
Political Science and Public Affairs, Ph.D in Political Science, Director of the Public Policy Institute, The Electricity Journal, Volume 24, Issue 4, Pages
47-61 “Not Your Father's Y2K: Preparing the North American Power Grid for the Perfect Solar Storm,”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040619011000972#sec0040)
The SWPC is the only governmental entity charged with coordinating space weather forecasting. But there is no single agency responsible for
coordinating space weather information across agencies, reporting actionable alerts to affected industries, and overseeing a system-wide emergency
response. Responsibility for various aspects of CME preparedness is scattered throughout the U.S. federal government. Consequently, affected industries
rely on data haphazardly gleaned from multiple government offices, foreign governments, international agencies, and the private sector.67
The SWPC should be charged with developing, in consultation with public and private sector stakeholders, an action plan to deliver by 2012 accurate
near-real-time alerts and short- and long-term space weather forecasts. However, to ensure that all of these recommendations are adopted as part of a
comprehensive strategy to prepare the North American bulk power system for a severe solar storm, we propose that Congress or the President require
the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to develop a plan for coordinating accurate, sustainable operational measurements of
solar activity through a central office with operational authority to issue comprehensive forecasts and alerts and to coordinate emergency response
across affected utilities and the multiple jurisdictions and government agencies already charged with regulating critical infrastructure.
 2NC Solvency
Increasing protection of grids create backup systems to prevent the collapse of power grids in
the event of a solar storm
Joseph 10 (Lawerence, has written on science, nature, politics and business on five continents for publications including The New York Times
(Magazine, Op-Ed), Discover, Salon.com, attended Brown University and University of California at San Diego, “A Guide to Preparing For and Surviving
Apocalypse 2012: Aftermath”, pg. 64-65, Google Books)
Since energy efficiency is tremendously important these days given the high economic and ecological costs of waste,
tremendous emphasis being placed on “smart grid” upgrades, which have been heavily funded by the Obama
administration’s stimulus program. The goal of these upgrades is to increase the efficiency of power
transmission and consumption by making fuller use of the grid’s current capabilities, meaning less backup and
redundancy, less margin for error. Unfortunately, smart grids can also be more easily outsmarted than conventional grids, which really don’t
do much thinking at all. One method of improving grid efficiency is to introduce wireless “smart meters.” It’s kind of
like replacing traffic lights with (computerized) traffic cops who are better able to address specific situations
and therefore more qickly unsnarl jams. The downside of smart meters is that they can be compromised by hackers who trick them into
indicating that which is not so. For example, a nefarious hacker could instruct all smart meters on a section of the grid to request more power. Too many
such requests occurring simultaneously could lead to the overload and shutdown of a power plant, soon resulting in a cascade of shutdowns around the
grid.

Protecting the power grid first is crucial to preventing damage to power grids by solar storms
Hecht 11 (Laurence, June 13th, 2011, 21st Century Science & Technology, “The Solar Storm Threat to America's Power Grid”,
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Solar_Storm_Threat.pdf)
Three means of mitigating the threat of severe geomagnetic storms and electromagnetic pulse damage are
available: — Provisions for replacement equipment, including spare transformers, circuit breakers, etc. — Low-ohmic, neutral-to-ground resistors to
reduce induced current levels at the transformer. — Blocking devices to prevent the flow of geomagnetically induced currents. Some combination of
all three measures is urgently required. Maintaining reserve transformers on site, especially near critical
metropolitan bottlenecks, is a must. But this would require the restoration of EHV transformer manufacturing capability in the U.S.A. and
worldwide. The present backlog in production makes this option not available for the short term . Immediate
installation of supplemental transformer neutral ground resistors can produce a 60 to 70% reduction of
geomagnetic induced currents for storms of all sizes, according to Metatech. The EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) Commission,
established by Congress in 2001, estimated the cost of hardening the U.S. power grid with this first level of defense at $150 million. There also exist
conceptual designs for blocking devices, to shut down direct current flows from geomagnetically induced
currents, while permitting normal AC flow on the power line. In one such design by Advanced Fusion Systems of New York, known as a Neutral
Capacitor Bypass Device (NCBD), a high-power electron tube known as a Bitron is utilized for fast bypass of induced currents, within a fraction of an
alternating current cycle. The design envisions a modification and scaling of the 4275 Bi-Tron tube, originally
developed for high-power military microwave applications, which has significantly faster switching capability
than power transistors. Without these measures, the power grid remains vulnerable to a catastrophic failure.
Although satellites can provide warning of impending hits to Earth from solar coronal mass ejections, there are
no viable options if preventive equipment and replacement transformers are not in place. Shutting down what might be
thought to be the most vulnerable points in the grid, increases the risk of transformer saturation at other points by increasing the flow of power, in
addition to the human and economic cost of a partial blackout in some areas. Also, as noted by Metatech, the expansion of renewable energy
greatly increases the threat posed by solar storms. To supply power from "wind farms," requires the construction of an extensive
network of 765 kV transmission lines to bring the power from Midwestern states to the major metropolitan areas of the East and West coasts. "This could
result in a seven-fold increase of the existing U.S. 765-kilovolt transmission network infrastructure," according to Kappenman, "and it would greatly
escalate the vulnerability of the U.S. to geomagnetic storms, as higher voltage transformers are more vulnerable.
 A/T: Links to Pxs.
Broad bipartisan support for restructuring and improving electrical grids
GreenTech Daily 11 (Herman K. Trabish, staff writer, “Cyber-Attacks, Attacks on the Grid, Electromagnetic Pulses and Geomagnetic Storms,
Oh My! Will Congress act to protect the nation’s grid—or will CYA remain the Washington way?”, 6/3/11,
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/cyber-attacks-attacks-on-the-grid-electromagnetic-pulses-and-geomagnetic-st/)
Few in government or grid-related work disagree with Woolsey -- not even the Republicans and Democrats on the House Subcommittee on Energy and
Power that met for testimony on The Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense (GRID) Act (H.R. 5026). The grid must really be in trouble. The
GRID Act would give the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) emergency authority to respond to imminent
physical and cyber-threats to the bulk-power transmission system and electric infrastructure critical to
homeland security (on being so directed by the President). The Act also instructs FERC to identify where the U.S. grid is vulnerable to
cyber-attack, Electromagnetic Pulses (EMPs) and solar activity-driven geomagnetic storms and to develop standards to rectify
these vulnerabilities. Astonishingly in this stridently partisan time, the GRID Act was passed by voice vote in the House last year, though it succumbed in
the Senate to election-year grandstanding. “We must be more vigilant in securing the nation’s critical infrastructure,
including the electrical grid,” said Subcommittee Chair Ed Whitfield (R-KY), opening the hearing. “This bill represents the type of legislation
that advances the security interests of all Americans and shows what can be accomplished when we choose to work together in a bipartisan manner,”
added Ranking Member Bobby Rush (D-Il). The GRID Act “is as bipartisan as they come,” said Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA),
who added, “It
is also budget neutral.” Representative Ed Markey (D-MA), Representative Lee Terry (R-NE) and many others in the hearing
talked about the recent, real and known cyber-attacks on the U.S. grid that had necessitated the bill. Even
in offering his alternative
SHIELD Act, Representative Trent Franks (R-AZ) commended the committee for the GRID Act but said that “catalyzed by a
major solar storm, a high-altitude nuclear blast, or a non-nuclear, device-induced intentional electromagnetic interference, this invisible force of ionized
particles” could “overwhelm and destroy our present electrical power grids and electrical equipment, including electronic communication networks,
radio equipment, integrated circuits and computers.” An EMP could come, Franks said, with virtually no warning, and may be
“the greatest short-term threat to peace and security in the world today.” We have, he concluded, “pictures of New
York City and Washington, D.C., but we still want to keep them around for a while.” Patricia Hoffman, Assistant Energy Secretary for Electricity Delivery
& Energy Reliability, said the Department of Energy “supports the Administration’s strategic comprehensive approach to cybersecurity,” represented by
the Act. It only wants further focus on “public-private partnerships to accelerate smart grid cybersecurity efforts;
research and development of advanced technology” as well as “cybersecurity standards to provide a baseline to
protect against known vulnerabilities” and several other data management and data sharing measures and
procedures. “The Department of Defense relies on commercial electric power for nearly 99% of its power needs at military installations,” testified
Paul Stockton, Assistant Defense Secretary for Homeland Defense & America’s Security Affairs. “The Department’s ability to perform its
national security functions is largely dependent upon thereliability and resilience of the commercial electric
power grid,” Stockton said, and is increasingly threatened by “disruptive or deliberate attacks, either physical and cyber in nature; natural hazards
such as geomagnetic storms, and natural disasters with cascading regional and national impacts” as well as other procedural matters addressed by the
GRID Act, including the “transition to automated control systems and other smart grid technologies.” A National Academies of Science report, Stockton
said, found “that if solar storms occurred today comparable to those that took place in the United States in 1921, more than 350 transformers could suffer
permanent damage, leaving as many as 130 million people without power.” Such an event, Stockton said, “would significantly affect the Department of
Defense’s execution of key missions.” There were objections to the GRID Act. Gerry Cauley, President/CEO of North American Electric Reliability Corp.
(NERC) said the Act was unnecessary. “NERC has consistently supported comprehensive legislation authorizing a government entity to address cyber
emergencies. Which agency is a policy decision for Congress to make.” In other words, it would be better if NERC had more responsibility instead of
FERC. But several voices indicated that it was to some extent NERC’s failure to get standards in place that
warranted the GRID Act. “Each day, the electric power industry overcomes some level of threat, ranging from
those posed by inclement weather or other natural events, to vandalism, equipment failures and cyber events,”
testified Barry Lawson, Associate Director for Power Delivery & Reliability, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA).
 ESA CP Solvency
ESA is already developing a solar probe to monitor the sun from closer than ever
International Business Times 10/8 (No author, IBTimes Staff Reporter , “European Space Agency Planning Closest Solar Probe
Ever”, 10/8/11, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/227489/20111008/european-space-agency-esa-sun-solar-orbiter.htm)
The European Space Agency is planning to send a probe closer to the sun than has ever been attempted. The
ambitious space mission is expected to happen in 2017, ESA delegates meeting in Paris announced recently. NASA would supply
instruments for the ESA's Solar Orbiter probe as well as the rocket to carry it, BBC News reported. The probe would be positioned within
42 million kilometers (26 million miles) of the sun. The mission would cost nearly 1 billion euros ($1.33 billion). Solar Orbiter's instruments
would be equipped with a shield capable of protecting the spacecraft from temperatures higher than 500 degrees Celsius. The probe would
observe the sun's fiery surface from behind small slits. "Solar Orbiter is not so much about taking high-
resolution pictures of the sun, although we'll get those; it's about getting close and joining up what happens on
the sun with what happens in space," Tim Horbury, a lead scientist on the Solar Orbiter mission, was quoted as saying by BBC News.

ESA HAS THE ABILITY TO MONITOR SOLAR STORM ERUPTIONS - ESA TECH MORE 40
TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE THAN NASA TECH
ESA TECHNOLOGY 2010 ["Proba-2 shows solar eruption that touched Earth", April 14,
http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Technology/SEMM5H9MT7G_0.html] ttate
Polar skies glowed with ghostly auroras last week during the biggest geomagnetic storm of 2010. The event owed
its origin to a solar eruption a few days earlier – revealed here in high-speed detail by ESA’s small Sun-watcher Proba-
2. Eruptions like this one have several components, most notably solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). Solar flares are caused by sudden
impulsive releases of magnetic energy from the surface of the Sun. The flare seen here took place at 11:54 CET on Saturday 3 April. It was officially
classed as ‘weak’, though still involved temperatures of tens of millions of degrees and around the same energy the human race consumes on Earth per
year. Significantly, this eruption was lined up with Earth, sending a vast number of charged particles hurtling towards us. Travelling at around 500 km
per second, the front of this CME reached Earth the following Monday, 5 April. The resulting geomagnetic storm was the most powerful in more than
three years. It provoked dazzling auroras but no damage was reported to potentially susceptible systems such as satellites and GPS, communications and
electrical power infrastructure. Solar flares are rarely visible in ordinary light, but are often spectacular at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths. The ESA-
NASA SOHO mission has been a solar flare ‘watchdog’ producing remarkable images for approaching 15 years, but
last year a new ‘pup’ made it to Earth orbit: ESA’s small satellite Proba-2. Measuring only a cubic metre, the
satellite is crammed with technology demonstrations but also carries science payloads: its SWAP (Sun Watcher using
APS detectors and imaging processing) instrument is only the size of a large shoebox, but gathers images much more frequently than
SOHO’s equivalent sensor. SWAP acquired an image every 100 seconds during the flare while SOHO manages one
around every 15 minutes,” said David Berghmans of the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB), overseeing SWAP
operations. “This means we have about 40 images compared to five to six for SOHO, allowing us to see clearly the full
range of phenomena associated with such an event.”

MORE EVIDENCE - ESA'S LYRA OBSERVATORY UNIQUELY EFFECTIVE - HIGH-FREQUENCY

MEASUREMENTS
ESA TECHNOLOGY 2010 ["Proba-2 shows solar eruption that touched Earth", April 14,
http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Technology/SEMM5H9MT7G_0.html] ttate
As well as SWAP, Proba-2 also carries a second Sun-monitoring payload run contributed by ROB: LYRA (Large Yield
Radiometer) is a solar radiometer measuring solar radiance at key ultraviolet wavelengths. SWAP and LYRA observed the
flare simultaneously, the latter instrument recording a dramatic four-fold radiation peak.
"LYRA adds an extra dimension to solar monitoring," said Jean-François Hochedez of ROB, LYRA Principal Investigator.
"It records at high frequency the extreme ultraviolet brightness radiated by the relatively 'cool' solar corona, seen
by the SWAP imager, but also phenomena occurring at lower temperatures in the dense chromosphere just above the surface. In addition it
examines the rapid variability of the very hot corona - its two metallic filter channels sample extreme ultraviolet pass bands but also
the soft X-ray range where the ten million degree corona expresses itself."
 Privatization CP Solvency
Private sector can handle Earth-observing satellites—AMPERE proves
EARSC 11 (“Earth-Observation Community Looks to Private Sector to Host Satellite Payloads,” 1/31/11, http://www.earsc.eu/news/earth-
observation-community-looks-to-private-sector-to-host-satellite-payloads)
Commercial satellite companies are offering the Earth-sciences community a faster and less-expensive way to
launch sensors needed to collect vital Earth-observation data and perform a range of scientific missions from
space. This capability, known as “hosted payloads,” is a cost-effective and timely way to deploy remote Earth- and space-monitoring instruments on
host satellites, which are primarily created to provide commercial voice, data and other telecommunications services. The public/private partnerships
enabled through hosted payloads carry benefits for satellite communication firms and public agencies aiming to stem cost overruns and schedule delays
associated with many large, government-run satellite programs. The March 2010 cancellation of the U.S. government’s problem-plagued National Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), for example, underscores the role hosted payloads can play to ensure continuity of data
collection necessary for predicting global climate change and making accurate weather forecasts. NPOESS was designed to support the Department of
Defense, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). When it was halted, the budget had more than doubled to nearly $14
billion, and the project was at least six years behind schedule. Budgetary pressures now are forcing the scientific community to rethink old ways of doing
business in space. Magnetic Attraction A good example of what’s possible is the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary
Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) program. Funded in part by a $4 million grant awarded by the National Science Foundation
(NSF) in June 2008, AMPERE is a collaborative initiative undertaken by Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), The Boeing Co.
and Iridium Communications Inc. The project, which recently got underway, is tapping data transmitted from Iridium’s
constellation of 66 low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to provide researchers with a global view of space weather in near-
real time. To monitor data needed for space-weather observation, scientists found a way to upload a software upgrade to the satellites’ bus, enabling a
sensor that monitors magnetic fields to also provide the additional information. This allows APL to get near-instantaneous global readings of electric
currents and magnetic signatures of the energy flux that flows between the sun and Earth’s upper atmosphere. These energy fluxes can cause powerful
geomagnetic storms that can disrupt telecommunications, utility grids and GPS navigation systems. The AMPERE project, led by principal investigator
Brian Anderson of APL, shows how commercial communications satellites can be used to host secondary missions. According to Lars Dyrud, a scientist
at APL, it’s an approach that can satisfy the practical needs of government for Earth-observation data and the academic community’s efforts to expand
human understanding of things such as the sun’s long-term effect on Earth’s climate and weather. “These public/private partnerships and hosted
payloads are essentially a paradigm shift in the way we conduct science from space,” adds Dyrud. “This kind of cooperation between industry, scientists
and the government expands what we are capable of doing and the kinds of things we never really dreamed were financially possible. If we went to
NASA or NOAA and asked for the money to put up a 66-satellite constellation, it would be many billions of
dollars and take a good decade to get off the ground. There just wouldn’t be the budget to get sensors on that many platforms. But if
you come along and do a hosted payload on Iridium satellites or through another satellite operator, it would
cost much less, and we could get our sensors into orbit much more quickly. There are a lot of scientific topics and new
techniques that the opportunity opens up.” New Space Science The NSF’s mission is to advance scientific knowledge as well as science and
technology education. Historically, the government agency hasn’t been directly involved in funding space-based observation projects, according to
Therese Moretto Jorgensen, program director in the Geospace Science Section of NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences. In the case of
hosted payloads, however, NSF’s involvement could help demonstrate new, creative ways of doing science in terms of methodology and results produced.
“That is an objective that NSF can be solidly behind,” says Jorgensen. “A main advantage of hosted payloads is that the reduction in cost can give you the
ability to be more places in space and cover more ground. Providing the global coverage is so essential to all the modeling and our understanding of the
space environment. Hosted payloads on LEO satellites would fulfill an obvious gap in almost any basic parameter for
space weather and the Earth’s upper atmosphere, because we know so little, and certainly not on a global scale.
Teaming with industry brings it down into a realm where the NSF can even consider doing it. I see a lot of promise in this. The White House recognized
the potential benefits for these government/industry partnerships when it unveiled a new U.S. National Space Policy in June 2010. The policy
encourages federal departments and agencies to explore nontraditional ways of conducting business, including tapping into available commercial space
capabilities to the “maximum practical extent.” Collaborating with a market-driven private sector, which has business incentives to
control costs and launch on schedule, could
save the government money and time as well as promote a robust domestic
commercial space industry. The space blueprint identifies public/private partnerships and hosted payloads on
commercial spacecraft as key options to consider.

Space Services Inc. could launch DSCOVR

NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, 2007 (“News of the Month Archive”, 2/7/07,
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/results?eq_0=2007/02&op_3=eq&v_ 3=N&t=102750&s=3&d=10,6,11)
National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) Participates in a Briefing on Commercial use of DSCOVR [February 07, 2007] On Wednesday, January 31,
2007 Drs. Christopher Fox and William Denig from NGDC participated in a briefing by Space Services Inc. (SSI )
[http://www.spaceservicesinc.com/about.htm] on their initiative to promote the use of space weather data within NOAA .
Other NOAA participants included: NWS Space Environment Center's Tom Bodgan and Ron Zwickl; NOAA Weather and Water Goal Leads George
Smith and Ward Seguin; and NESDIS Pat Mulligan and Ben Diedrich by telephone. Mr. Charles Chafer (CEO) represented SSI along with several
supporting team members, who also included Mr. Kenn George, a former Assistant Secretary of DOC. Mr. Chafer presented an overview briefing which
was primarily based on their recently completed contact study coordinated by Pat Mulligan. The objectives of this study were to assess
the feasibility and estimated costs associated with having a commercial entity develop a capability to obtain in-
situ solar wind data and coronagraph imagery at or near the L1 Lagrange point and then sell these services to
the government. SSI's scope has now expanded beyond their original task to consider the benefits, if any, of
using the available NASA DSCOVR satellite [http://www-pm.larc.nasa.gov/triana.html]. Mr. Chafer presented an
intriguing business model where the use of DSCOVR significantly lowered the risks from that of the previous
"go-it-alone" strategy. The overall reaction on the Government side was positive. There still remain, however, several
important considerations such as the willingness of NASA to repurpose DSCOVR for this mission, potential cost savings by using a non-US launch
service, transmitter frequency allocations, and the architecture for the follow-on mission.

The private sector could build a replacement to ACE

Baker et al 08 (Daniel, Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National
Academies, “Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report: Committee on the Societal and Economic
Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events:A Workshop, National Research Council”, 2008, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12507.html)
Pursuing this theme, several participants commented on a perceived fragility, or lack of robustness, in the nation’s capacity for space weather
monitoring. John Kappenman (Metatech Corporation) observed that many key parts of the system have no backups: single
points of failure, he argued, could substantially degrade or even halt operations. A critical weakness in the
present system, noted by a number of participants, is the reliance on the aging Advanced Composition Explorer
(ACE) spacecraft as virtually the nation’s sole upstream solar wind monitor. ACE, positioned at L1,1 is now 11 years old, well
beyond its planned operational life, and the detector heads are losing gain. “There could be an electronic failure,” Charles Holmes (NASA
Headquarters) pointed out. “So it is a vulnerable system.” As Baker noted, the loss of L1 solar wind measurements such as
are provided by ACE “would be a devastating loss to the national space weather capability.” In a presentation given the
previous day, Thomas Bodgan of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center listed as one of NOAA’s “critical new directions” to “secure [an] operational
L1 monitor.” It was clear from the comments of the participants, however, that no clear replacement for ACE is coming on line soon. Devrie
Intriligator (Carmel Research Center, Inc.) noted that the possibility of an L1 monitor supplied by private
industry had been discussed at other workshops.

Chafer 11 (Charles, Space Services Inc., “NOAA AWARDS SPACE SERVICES INC: A CONTRACT TO ASSESS NEXT GENERATION SOLAR WIND
AND ADVANCED TELECOMMUNICATIONS SPACE SYSTEMS”, 2011, http://www.memorialspaceflights.com/NOAA_releaseOct11-05.htm)
A team led by Space Services Inc. (SSI), a client of the Houston Technology Center, has been awarded a contract from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to assess commercial opportunities in developing and deploying next generation solar wind and
telecommunications space systems. The SSI team, comprised of private companies, will examine cutting edge technologies to achieve detection of solar
storms. The effort will also examine innovative, commercially- driven technological and financial approaches to meeting the requirements of NOAA --
and its partner agency, the National Science Foundation -- for solar storm warning and Antarctic telecommunications services. The team will explore the
possibility that a revolutionary spacecraft, powered by advanced solar sail technology and located deep in space, can effectively detect solar storms. Solar
storms occur regularly in space and can have severe consequences here on Earth. These storms can interfere with global communications networks,
disrupt power distribution via utility grids, require air travel rerouting, and threaten astronauts in space. For example, a recent solar storm disrupted
emergency communications during hurricane Katrina. Advanced warning of solar storms helps engineers manage and avoid the effects of such storms,
especially as our world becomes progressively more dependent on high tech power and telecommunications networks. The SSI-led team includes the
right mix of well established and entrepreneurial companies -- leaders in their fields -- to provide NOAA with a realistic assessment of the commercial
possibilities for meeting NOAA’s needs. “We’re delighted to be going to work for them. We also believe that, increasingly, a commercial approach to
space infrastructure development, whenever feasible, is the best value approach for both meeting US government needs and encouraging the further
development of the new commercial space industry,” said Charles M. Chafer, CEO of Houston, Texas based Space Services Inc. Other members of the
team include: Ecliptic Enterprises Corp. (Pasadena, CA); a space technology firm that produces the world’s leading brand of onboard video and imaging
systems for use with rockets, spacecraft and other remote platforms. Ecliptic’s CEO Rex Ridenoure said, “This NOAA effort is a good example of how
commercial approaches and solutions might be extended beyond Earth-orbiting comsat and remote-sensing missions into the deep-space arena. We’re
pleased to be on the team.” Legacy Equity Group, LLC (Houston, TX); a merchant banking firm based on the fundamental business and human
behavioral principles of its founders as a profitable, ongoing, multi-generational business/deal flow incubator; L’Garde, Inc. (Tustin, CA); a world leader
in analyzing, designing, manufacturing, testing and flying inflatable space structural systems; Raytheon’s Intelligence & Information Systems - Space
Systems (Aurora, CO); an industry leader in defense and government electronics, space, information technology, technical services, and business
aviation and special mission aircraft. "Raytheon's participation in this program is another example of Raytheon's commitment to NOAA's long term
vision," notes Ray Kolibaba, Vice President of Raytheon’s Space Systems; Southwest Research Institute (Boulder, CO and San Antonio, TX); which are
providing the expertise for the science instrument package to define and develop the solar wind instrumentation and solar storm warning capability; and
SpaceQuest, Ltd. (Fairfax, VA); a leading developer of advanced micro satellite technology, specializing in the design, development and testing of space
and ground components for operation with orbiting satellites.

***DA Links
 Politics Links
Congress hates climate programs-that’s why DSCOVR was trashed and left in a Maryland
warehouse for 10 years
BOYLE ’11 (Boyle, Popular Science, leading source of technology and science news magazine,“As Congress Fusses Over Climate Semantics, the U.S.
Faces a Weather Satellite Gap”, 4/23/11, http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-05/satellite-funding-cuts-us-could-face-weather-satellite-gap)
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said at a news conference Thursday that the agency’s satellite
program is in limbo. This is at least the fourth time in the past few years that a climate-monitoring project
has fallen victim to either terrible luck or bad politics. First theOrbiting Carbon Observatory failed to reach orbit, then NASA’s
aerosol-monituring Glory missionalso died during launch. Last month we told you about the Deep Space Climate
Observatory, languishing in a box in Maryland. Now a satellite called JPSS is in danger of losing its funding.Here’s a bit of
history: Until last year, NASA, NOAA and the Department of Defense were going to share a brand-new polar-orbiting satellite called the National
Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). But after a few years of planning and design work, the government decided
the military and civilian agencies didn’t play well together and divorced the project, giving the DOD its own satellite. The existing civilian project,
called NPP for NPOESS Preparatory Project, will serve NASA and NOAA only, and is planned for launch in October. It just completed a thermal
test.It is supposed to have a companion successor called the Joint Polar Satellite System, and NOAA requested $1.06 billion in this
year’s budget to build it. Then the federal budget stalemate happened, and everything was funded at 2010
levels as Congress and the White House wrangled.“The message that was getting to Congress was that
NOAA needed a billion dollars to do climate research,” said Sullivan, who is Raytheon’s program manager
for the JPSS. As a result, the funding was not approved.Since the funding cuts, NOAA — and contractors like Raytheon — have
started marketing the satellite's weather forecasting abilities, not just its utility in informing climate models.Polar-orbiting satellites can provide
global weather coverage, which is useful when trying to make future weather predictions. Geostationary satellites, like the ones that provide the
satellite radar imagery on your local news, only look at a specific section of the planet. The National Weather Service needs both sets of data to
complete accurate forecasting.NPP is a new polar-orbiting satellite that will replace NOAA’s previous orbiters, Sullivan said. It will circle the Earth
512 miles above the surface, completing about 14 orbits every day.“We’re going to see just a huge increase in the amount of data that can be
collected ... NPP provides an enormous amount of capability that is currently not on orbit,” Sullivan said.NPP will have a life span of about five
years, at which point JPSS should be ready to replace it. Sullivan said NOAA needs funding this year for construction so the JPSS project doesn’t
fall behind schedule. NOAA is hoping the project will get funding this year, but it looks doubtful, Sullivan said. Meanwhile, the agency is preparing
for a budget battle next year, he said."If the program doesn't get funded at the appropriate level in 2012, it will fall behind, which is bad for all of
us," he said. “Not having satellites and not applying their latest capabilities could spell disaster,” said NOAA's Lubchenko. “We are likely looking at
a period of time a few years down the road where we will not be able to do severe storm warnings and long-term weather forecasts that people have
come to expect today.”

Opposition to DSCOVR-Congress already cancelled funding for it twice

Brinton 11 (Turner, Space News Staff Writer, “House Panel Denies Funding for Space Climate Probe, Satellite Constellation”, 7/13/11,
http://www.space.com/12259-house-panel-space-climate-satellites-funding.html)
WASHINGTON - The U.S. House Appropriations Committee is set to vote today (July 13) on a 2012 spending bill that
denies funding for a pair of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite programs, one to provide
advance warning of solar storms, the other a collaborative project with Taiwan. The House version of the 2012 commerce, justice, science
and related agencies appropriations bill also would trim $50 million from NOAA’s $617.4 million request to develop a new generation of geostationary
orbiting weather satellites, according to the report accompanying the bill published July 12. It appears the savings would be applied to
help kick-start NOAA’s polar-orbiting weather satellite program, which was delayed by the protracted 2011
budget process. The 2012 budget request NOAA sent to Congress in February asked for $47.3 million for the Deep Space
Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) and $11.3 million for Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate-2 (COSMIC-2). The
House bill would not provide funding for either. DSCOVR would utilize hardware left over from a planned NASA Earth observation
mission dubbed Triana that was canceled several years ago. COSMIC-2 is a multisatellite radio occultation experiment being conducted jointly with
Taiwan. "While the Committee supports NOAA’s efforts to establish a radio occultation satellite constellation in partnership with Taiwan, the
recommendation does not include any funding for the COSMIC-2 program given funding constraints and the need to fund other higher priority NOAA
satellite programs," the report said. The higher priority satellite program is the Joint Polar Satellite System created last year after the White House
dismantled a joint military-civilian weather satellite program. NOAA had sought $1 billion for the program in 2011 but Congress provided less than half
of that amount. The House bill would provide $901.3 million for the Joint Polar Satellite System in 2012, which is $429.4 million more than
appropriated for the program in 2011 but $168.6 million less than the request. NOAA sought $9.5 million for 2011 to ready the long-shelved DSCOVR
spacecraft for launch and $3.7 million to initiate development of COSMIC-2. Congress was unable to pass any of the 12 traditional
federal spending bills for 2011 and instead passed an all-in-one spending bill that held most federal spending to
2010 levels. Funding was generally not provided for so-called new start programs such as DSCOVR and
COSMIC-2. The 2012 funding bill, meanwhile, would provide $567.4 million for NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R
series, $94.9 million less than provided for this year.

Massively unpopular-Obama already tried increasing spending for DSCOVR and it was denied
Clark 09 (Stephen, Space News Staff writer, “Mothballed Satellite Sits In Warehouse, Waits For New Life”, 3/2/09, http://www.space.com/2286-
mothballed-satellite-sits-warehouse-waits-life.html)
President Obama's fiscal year 2010 budgetoutline proposed $1.3 billion for NOAA satellite programs, an increase
over fiscal year 2009 levels, but more details won't be revealed until April. If DSCOVR is chosen for
implementation, the ultimate science payload would have to be balanced with funding concerns, especially the cost of
a launch vehicle, according to Davis. Managers originally wanted to use an Air Force Minotaur 5 rocket to launch the satellite, but engineers found the
spacecraft would not fit on that booster. Depending on its final mass, the spacecraft would likely fly on a Delta 2 or Falcon 9 rocket. Davis stressed those
are very preliminary discussions and any final decision is months or years away. A NASA study from 2007 concluded that DSCOVR could be refurbished,
tested and launched aboard a Delta 2 rocket for about $205 million. But that estimate was based on an Earth observation mission using instruments
already built. Launch would probably occur in about 2013, officials said. But NOAA officials must first finish examining NASA's report and decide
whether to pursue the mission. "If the numbers seem to make sense to us, and the powers-that-be think it's worthwhile, we could potentially ask for
funding to do this," Davis said. If the mission is approved, NASA would prepare the satellite for launch , the Air Force would
help fund the launch, and NOAA would operate the spacecraft. Engineers want to put the craft through a new round of environmental tests to check the
satellite's response to the intense sounds, vibrations and temperature swings it would experience during flight. Some components may have
to recertified or replaced, including DSCOVR's reaction wheels, star tracker and flight battery. "These are preliminary
assessments and NOAA and NASA will develop a more definite plan if the decision is made to proceed," a NOAA spokesperson said. NOAA began
considering using DSCOVR for solar wind studies in 2007. Space Services Inc., a Houston-based company that specializes in launching cremated
remains into space, approached the government with a proposal to redevelop the spacecraft for solar observations. Space Services would have sold the
data to the government. Government and commercial organizations were unable to reach an agreement. NASA finally acted on NOAA's suggestion last
year after Congress passed the NASA Authorization Act of 2008. The bill required NASA to submit its plans for DSCOVR to Congress 180 days after the
legislation became law. That deadline is in April. Steve Cole, a NASA spokesperson, said the congressional report is separate from the NOAA solar wind
study, but the work could fulfill the obligation if NOAA chooses to go ahead with the mission. The Obama administration's transition
team also asked NASA officials about the status of the DSCOVR mission. "NASA came back to us and asked us
if we still had interest," Davis said. "We got to the point where NOAA and the Air Force could pay NASA to do
this study." Mission long stalled DSCOVR was originally approved in October 1998 as a mission to continuously observe the sunlit side of
Earth from the L1 point. The idea was first proposed by former Vice President Al Gore during a speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in
March 1998. Gore's vision was for the mission to produce live imagery of the full sunlit disk of Earth 24 hours a day. The pictures were to be posted on
the Internet. Gore named the project Triana, after the sailor that first spotted land on Columbus's 1492 voyage to the Americas. "This new satellite...will
allow people around the globe to gaze at our planet as it travels in its orbit around the sun for the first time in history," Gore said in the announcement.
NASA added several instruments to Triana in an attempt to build scientific support for the mission, but the additions drove up the satellite's cost. The
higher price tag caught the attention of the agency's own inspector general. The internal watchdog issued a report in 1999, criticizing Triana's rising cost
and expressing concern over the mission's scientific merit. Triana was originally due to launch on a space shuttle mission in 2000, but Congress ordered
NASA to put the project on hold in late 1999 pending a review by the National Research Council. Congressional Republicans called the
satellite an overpriced "screen saver" and criticized the mission as one of Gore's pet projects. The council, part of the
National Academy of Sciences, concluded in March 2000 that Triana was a worthwhile mission that would collect unique data with important
applications in climate change research. The group "found that the Triana mission will complement and enhance data from other missions because of the
measurements obtainable at the L1 point in space," according to the report.

Spending on Earth Science observatories such as DSCOVR = Republican Backlash.

Svitak 11 (Amy, Space News Reporter, 7-11-2011, GOP Members Seek Earth Science Cuts, http://www.spacenews.com/civil/110317gop-lawmakers-
appeal-for-manned-exploration-funds.html)
Adams and Olson, who represent states with a stake in NASA’s manned spaceflight program, said the
current fiscal situation is
forcing hard choices as members of the GOP-led House seek to curb discretionary spending at federal
agencies. “To be clear, we believe that NASA’s budget can be reduced,” the lawmakers wrote, urging Ryan to take aim at
climate-monitoring programs poised for a modest funding boost over the next five years under the $18.72 billion budget blueprint U.S. President
Barack Obama unveiled Feb. 14. “Within the NASA budget specifically, we believe there is an opportunity to cut
funding within the Earth Science account where an overabundance of climate change research is being
conducted,” they wrote. The members lauded America’s history of global leadership in space exploration but criticized Obama for what they
said was undermining the nation’s leadership in space exploration.
 Flip Flop Links
The plan costs capital and is a flip-flop.
Borenstein, 3/4/11 [Seth, Associated Press, “Lost Satellite Deals Heavy Blow to Climate Research,” MSNBC,
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41895904/ns/technology_and_science-space/t/lost-satellite-deals-heavy-blow-climate-research/]
NASA's environmental division is getting used to failure, cuts and criticism. In 2007, a National Academy of Sciences panel
said that research
and purchasing for NASA Earth sciences had decreased 30 percent in six years and that the
climate-monitoring system was at "risk of collapse." Just last month, the Obama administration canceled two major
satellite proposals to save money. Also, the Republican-controlled House has sliced $600 million from NASA in
its continuing spending bill, and some GOP members do not believe the evidence of manmade global warming.
Flip-flops destroy Obama’s political capital
Goddard, 2009 (Taegan, Creator – Political Wire, (One of the Most Widely-Read and Influential Political Web Sites on the Internet), "Does
Obama Practice a Different Kind of Politics?", CQ Politics, 3-19, http://innovation.cq.com/ liveonline/51/landing)
Dan from Philadelphia: How quickly is Obama burning through his political capital? Will he have anything left to actually keep
some of his promises? With potential shifts from his campaign stances on the question of Gitmo, Iraq troop withdrawals and taxing employer healthcare
benefits, it seems he is in for tough fights on all fronts. # Taegan Goddard: That's a great question. I think Obama spends some of
his political capital every time he makes an exception to his principles -- such as hiring a lobbyist to a key position or
overlooking an appointee not paying their taxes. Policy reversals such as the ones you note burn through even more of this precious
capital.
More ev -- flip-flop.
Hamilton, 6/17/11 (John, NPR, “Blind Eye in the Sky: Weather Satellites Lose Funding,” http://www.npr.org/2011/06/17/137251742/blind-
eye-in-the-sky-weather-satellites-lose-funding?ps=cprs)
Government officials are forecasting a turbulent future for the nation's weather satellite program. Federal budget
cuts are threatening to leave the U.S. without some critical satellites, the officials say, and that could mean less accurate
warnings about events like tornadoes and blizzards. In particular, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are concerned
about satellites that orbit over the earth's poles rather than remaining over a fixed spot along the equator.
 Spending Links
250 million has already been spent on DSCOVR
MSNBC, 2009 (MSNBC, “'Gore-Sat' climate probe may get second chance: Mothballed observatory could monitor for solar storms, global
warming” 4/2/2009 ,http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30018554/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/gore-sat-climate-probe-may-get-second-
chance/)
After completing the NOAA work to test the observatory's solar instruments, NASA is now finishing an
assignment from Congress to test its Earth science instruments and outline options for a new mission, said
NASA spokesman Stephen Cole. "The testing has concluded," Cole told Discovery News. "I don't have a firm date of when the report will go
to Congress." Cole said NASA already has spent $97 million on the program, though Valero puts that figure closer
to $250 million. Deep Space Climate Observatory was assembled and was part way through testing when the
program was canceled in November 2001, about a year from its planned launch.
Readying and launching DSCOVR would cost hundreds of millions of dollars
AtlasAeroSpace.net, 2009 (AtlasAeroSpace.net, “Testing, reviews continue for grounded satellite” ( taken from SpaceFlightNow), Oct 16,
2009, http://www.atlasaerospace.net/eng/newsi-r.htm?id=4638&printversion=1)
The options given closer scrutiny included launching DSCOVR on its original two-year Earth observation mission, a five-year mission devoted to space
weather, or an in-the-middle concept to study both. It would cost between $138 million and $300 million to fly DSCOVR as
originally planned, with a focus on Earth science and minimal changes to the spacecraft. But NASA says this option is
not likely because it was not identified as a priority in the most recent Earth Science Decadal Survey by the National Research Council. Decadal surveys
guide the agency in selecting missions based on the input of the scientific community. Between $139 million and $285 million would
be needed to pay for a space weather mission, including money for a new coronal mass ejection camera and
upgrades to ensure the satellite could last for five years in space. The hybrid mission's cost would range from
$165 million to $319 million, according to NASA. Most of the cost variability stems from uncertainty in the launch industry in the
2012 timeframe, when DSCOVR would be ready to fly in the scenarios costed by NASA. Traditional launch vehicles at historical prices are unlikely to be
available, the report said. The best rocket options would be the Orbital Sciences Corp. Taurus 2, SpaceX's Falcon 9, or the larger Atlas 5 and Delta 4
boosters. DSCOVR is too large to fit on an Air Force-provided Minotaur vehicle. Because of the unclear launch
availability, rocket prices could range from $60 million to $200 million under all three alternatives.
The plan trades off with other funding priorities.
Wigbels et. al, July 2008 – (Lyn Wigbels, senior associate of Technology and Public Policy program at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, G. Ryan Faith, CSIS Human Space Exploration Initiative, Vincent Sabathier, senior associate with the CSIS Technology and Public
Policy Program, Center for Strategic Studies, “Earth Observations and Global Change”)
In an increasingly constrained “discretionary” fiscal environment, NASA, NOAA, and USGS budgets for Earth
observations, which began to decline in FY 2006, are competing with other national priorities , and existing budgets have not been
sufficient to either maintain current capabilities, meet clearly identified current needs, or provide the Earth observation products needed for foreign
policy, economic, or security applications. For example, the president’s budget requests for NASA since the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) was
announced in January 2004 have been approximately $2 billion below the administration’s five-year budget projection in FY 2004. The Earth science
community estimates that the overall Earth observation budget is underfunded on the order of $2.5 billion annually.
Moreover, funding has become unbalanced among dedicated defense and intelligence capabilities on the one hand and
purely civil space activities on the other, even though civil space activities such as Earth observations provide very significant value to other sectors.