Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.8771575909
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.7694054393
R^2 ajustado 0.7232865271
Error típico 6.2575590241
Observaciones 7

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 653.2600610131 653.2600610131
Residuos 5 195.7852247012 39.1570449402
Total 6 849.0452857143

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 36.0968244187 8.0442898914 4.4872605172
Variable X 1 0.0025987969 0.0006362594 4.0844924611
 F Valor crítico de F
16.68307866 0.0094979294

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

0.006475151 15.4183189433 56.775329894 15.418318943 56.7753298941
0.009497929 0.0009632399 0.0042343539 0.0009632399 0.0042343539
North-South Airline
Forecasting Causal regression analysis
Enter
Enter the
the (Y,X)
(Y,X) pairs
pairs in
in cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Enter
Enter new
new value
value of
of X
X at
at the
the bottom
bottom to
to forecast
forecast Y.
Y.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Dep Variable Indep Variable Absolute
Period (or) (Y) (or) (X) Forecast Error error
Year 1 51.8 6512 53.020 -1.220 1.220
Year 2 54.92 8404 57.937 -3.017 3.017
Year 3 69.7 11077 64.884 4.816 4.816
Year 4 68.9 11717 66.547 2.353 2.353
Year 5 63.72 13275 70.596 -6.876 6.876
Year 6 84.73 15215 75.638 9.092 9.092
Year 7 78.74 18390 83.889 -5.149 5.149
Average 4.646
Intercept 36.097 MAD
Slope 0.0026
SE
Forecast 36.097 Correlation
r-squared
Squared Absolute
error % error
1.489 2.36%
9.103 5.49%
23.197 6.91%
5.537 3.42%
47.277 10.79%
82.673 10.73%
26.509 6.54%
27.969 6.61%
MSE MAPE

6.258
0.877
0.769
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.7825924937
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.6124510112
R^2 ajustado 0.5349412135
Error típico 9.2484482931
Observaciones 7

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 675.853392276 675.853392276
Residuos 5 427.6689791526 85.5337958305
Total 6 1103.5223714286

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 20.5712255827 11.8891725717 1.7302487165
Variable X 1 0.0026433553 0.0009403687 2.8109775439
 F Valor crítico de F
7.901594752 0.0375050052

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

0.144145226 -9.9908654709 51.133316636 -9.9908654709 51.1333166364
0.037505005 0.0002260606 0.0050606499 0.0002260606 0.0050606499
North-South Airline
Forecasting Causal regression analysis
Enter
Enter the
the (Y,X)
(Y,X) pairs
pairs in
in cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Enter
Enter new
new value
value of
of X
X at
at the
the bottom
bottom to
to forecast
forecast Y.
Y.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Dep Variable Indep Variable Absolute
Period (or) (Y) (or) (X) Forecast Error error
Year 1 43.49 6512 37.785 5.705 5.705
Year 2 38.58 8404 42.786 -4.206 4.206
Year 3 51.48 11077 49.852 1.628 1.628
Year 4 58.72 11717 51.543 7.177 7.177
Year 5 45.47 13275 55.662 -10.192 10.192
Year 6 50.26 15215 60.790 -10.530 10.530
Year 7 79.6 18390 69.183 10.417 10.417
Average 7.122
Intercept 20.571 MAD
Slope 0.0026
SE
Forecast 20.571 Correlation
r-squared
Squared Absolute
error % error
32.550 13.12%
17.690 10.90%
2.651 3.16%
51.503 12.22%
103.872 22.41%
110.878 20.95%
108.524 13.09%
61.096 13.69%
MSE MAPE

9.248
0.783
0.612
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.624867994
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.39046001
R^2 ajustado 0.268552012
Error típico 6.4696514679
Observaciones 7

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 134.0621351331 134.0621351331
Residuos 5 209.2819505812 41.8563901162
Total 6 343.3440857143

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 4.5966338916 13.3098802194 0.3453550157
Variable X 1 0.0032038696 0.0017902045 1.7896667971
 F Valor crítico de F
3.202907245 0.1335222806

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

0.743882244 -29.6175024349 38.810770218 -29.617502435 38.8107702181
0.133522281 -0.0013979977 0.0078057369 -0.0013979977 0.0078057369
North-South Airline
Forecasting Causal regression analysis
Enter
Enter the
the (Y,X)
(Y,X) pairs
pairs in
in cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Enter
Enter new
new value
value of
of X
X at
at the
the bottom
bottom to
to forecast
forecast Y.
Y.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Dep Variable Indep Variable Absolute
Period (or) (Y) (or) (X) Forecast Error error
Year 1 13.29 5107 20.959 -7.669 7.669
Year 2 25.15 8145 30.692 -5.542 5.542
Year 3 32.18 7360 28.177 4.003 4.003
Year 4 31.78 5773 23.093 8.687 8.687
Year 5 25.34 7150 27.504 -2.164 2.164
Year 6 32.78 9364 34.598 -1.818 1.818
Year 7 35.56 8259 31.057 4.503 4.503
Average 4.912
Intercept 4.597 MAD
Slope 0.0032
SE
Forecast 4.597 Correlation
r-squared
Squared Absolute
error % error
58.810 57.70%
30.715 22.04%
16.023 12.44%
75.471 27.34%
4.684 8.54%
3.304 5.55%
20.273 12.66%
29.897 20.89%
MSE MAPE

6.470
0.625
0.390
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.6781750964
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.4599214614
R^2 ajustado 0.3519057536
Error típico 7.1199914045
Observaciones 7

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 215.8518119992 215.8518119992
Residuos 5 253.4713880008 50.6942776002
Total 6 469.3232

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción -0.6708541441 14.6478111266 -0.0457989346
Variable X 1 0.0040653657 0.0019701588 2.0634710492
 F Valor crítico de F
4.257912771 0.0940171052

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

0.965243416 -38.324251358 36.98254307 -38.324251358 36.9825430699
0.094017105 -0.0009990888 0.0091298202 -0.0009990888 0.0091298202
North-South Airline
Forecasting Causal regression analysis
Enter
Enter the
the (Y,X)
(Y,X) pairs
pairs in
in cells
cells shaded
shaded YELLOW.
YELLOW. Enter
Enter new
new value
value of
of X
X at
at the
the bottom
bottom to
to forecast
forecast Y.
Y.

Input Data Forecast Error Analysis

Dep Variable Indep Variable Absolute
Period (or) (Y) (or) (X) Forecast Error error
Year 1 18.86 5107 20.091 -1.231 1.231
Year 2 31.55 8145 32.442 -0.892 0.892
Year 3 40.43 7360 29.250 11.180 11.180
Year 4 22.1 5773 22.799 -0.699 0.699
Year 5 19.69 7150 28.397 -8.707 8.707
Year 6 32.58 9364 37.397 -4.817 4.817
Year 7 38.07 8259 32.905 5.165 5.165
Average 4.670
Intercept -0.671 MAD
Slope 0.0041
SE
Forecast -0.671 Correlation
r-squared
Squared Absolute
error % error
1.515 6.53%
0.795 2.83%
124.987 27.65%
0.488 3.16%
75.803 44.22%
23.206 14.79%
26.677 13.57%
36.210 16.11%
MSE MAPE

7.120
0.678
0.460
 Regression Line

90
Dependent Variable, Y

f(x) = 0.0025987969x + 36.0968244187

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Independent Variable, X
 Regression Line

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Dependent Variable, Y

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f(x) = 0.0026433553x + 20.5712255827

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Independent Variable, X
 Regression Line

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Dependent Variable, Y

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f(x) = 0.0032038696x + 4.5966338916

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Independent Variable, X
 Regression Line

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Dependent Variable, Y

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f(x) = 0.0040653657x - 0.6708541441

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Independent Variable, X