5/30/2018 Bitcoin long term view, why

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Bitcoin long term view, why this is not

THE bottom and why we will see
prolonged bear market
bitcoinsalvador (37) (/@bitcoinsalvador) in bitcoin (/trending/bitcoin)
•  21 hours ago

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for last ve months. It has had a few
pullbacks or rallies if you wish, to the upside but failed to make higher
high every time. As volatility and volume is decreasing for almost 4
months now, violent move and that wished volume is coming soon. Why I
think move to the down side is more probable than market turning around
here and starting new bull market? I'll post some charts and will try to
make sense of what charts are showing us. Another thing worth to take in
consideration is general sentiment. It is relatively hard to measure it in
twitter polls, it may be manipulated by bots, not having enough data, every
twitter account may have slightly different audience based on his/her view
of the market. That being said results of these polls are changing
frequently not only based on who makes the poll but based on time of the
poll as well, every little price movement has direct correlation with people
emotions. But I have some intraday data plus I'll give you some insight of
my experience of traders behavior from past days or weeks. Enough of this
intro and let's throw in some charts.

First of all the monthly close in a few days, so I'll start with a monthly
chart.

No fancy indicators needed for this one. Simply by looking at the price
action from last few months we can see price action engul ng almost
whole previous month, it is not perfect bearish engul ng, but also not a
bullish sign.

Weekly is showing us a lot more data.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@bitcoinsalvador/bitcoin-long-term-view-and-why-this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-prolonged-bear-market?utm_campaign=market%20report&
5/30/2018 Moving
Bitcoin averages
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term view, Newthisindicator
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a market. Close below 50 week EMA
(/created/bitcoin) is de nitely a bearish sign and even
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stronger (imo) when it's second close in relatively short time frame, ideally
we would want to see rejection of that level, bouncing of that price area
and closing above. Didn't happen and closed bellow. In the past when that
happened, trend reversed a er spending some time around 200 week
EMA, never closing bellow.

RSI - In a bull market RSI between 40-50 zone acts as a support, in a bear
market 50-60 zone acts as a resistance, you can see that in the picture
above. Historically when RSI broke down 50 level and didn't break up right
away it reached lower, over sold values and bottomed out before the trend
ended and new one started.

CMF - Is volume based indicator, basically showing us buying and selling

pressure. Buy pressure is greater if value is above 0 level, sell pressure is
greater if value is below 0 level. However, nothing is perfect. It can
uctuate around 0 level and give some false signals as we can see in early
2016. But in my opinion we have to look at overall market conditions. At
that time price was already out of months long accumulation, successfully
retested previous highs and forming continuation pattern. On the other
hand in mid 2015 when selling pressure started to be more signi cant and
value was below 0, market structure was completely bearish and gave us
additional signal that bear market was not over yet.

What we can expect with some degree of con dence based on all of this
data is that we'll drop to that rst green area. It is high volume area, 4358 is
0.786 b level. Again based on history and how markets behave, we can
expect that this area will be defended by bulls. Can we end the bear market
in that area? Sure. But at this point I am leaning towards that it will be just
a bounce zone. This is obviously just a speculation now and will need to be
reevaluated when or if we get there. True reversal area could be between
3000 and 2500. But again, just a speculation now. People don't want to
compare this bear market with the last one, simply due to the
fundamentals. And I agree that it's different market and bitcoin is stronger
than ever, no mt. gox hack, huge development going on, exciting stuff
being built, hash rate steadily growing, segwit adoption, lightning network
slowly being adopted etc. list would be long. But you can't deny crowd
behavior and market cycles. With all that in mind we can already see that
current market is moving much faster. Approximately 33%-39% faster. If
we'll se more down side and this speed rate is respected, bottom could be
some time around September this year. Generally speaking, sentiment is
changing very frequently. Hard to say if my view is biased, might be, I can't
deny that. But I'am trying to be as objective and not emotional as much as I
can. Experience from last few days is that people are still relatively high on
hopium that we will see ATH later this year. As much I'd like to see that
happen (who wouldn't), not enough people were shaken out of their
positions imo. Unreasonable bulls calling bears literally idiots even tho
there has been no market structure break. Except for higher lows (and it is
not a market structure break). But no higher highs, so I don't take that as a
valid argument that we are out of the woods. Media went nuts about death
cross few weeks ago and now all of the sudden are calling for 50k by end of
the year. Which is another not very convincing signal this might be over.

This post is a little longer than I expected. I have prepared few more charts
but it would be super long and probably boring. Let me know if you liked
this post and I will make another one with the rest of my charts. But I
might make it anyway because I nd them interesting.

Can I be completely wrong? YES, 100%. But this is my view of the market at
this very moment. And I will change my mind if I see break in market
structure, that is break above 10k at the moment, previous swing high.
Until then market is bearish and we can do nothing about it.

*Disclaimer. This is not a trading advice, this my personal view. No trades

should be based on this analysis. It is for fun purpose only.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@bitcoinsalvador/bitcoin-long-term-view-and-why-this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-prolonged-bear-market?utm_campaign=market%20report&
5/30/2018 Feedback,
Bitcoin
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21 hours ago by bitcoinsalvador (37) (/@bitcoinsalvador) Reply 3

$5.36 7 votes (/bitcoin/@bitcoinsalvador/bitcoin-long-term-view-

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multicripto (22) (/@multicripto)  ·  20 hours ago (/bitcoin/@bitcoinsalvador/bitcoin-long-term-view-and-why- [-]

this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-prolonged-bear-market#@multicripto/re-bitcoinsalvador-bitcoin-long-term-
view-and-why-this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-prolonged-bear-market-20180529t184345442z)
Thanks for your thoughts. I think the same
$0.00 1 vote Reply

bitcoinsalvador (37) (/@bitcoinsalvador)  ·  4 hours ago (/bitcoin/@bitcoinsalvador/bitcoin-long-term- [ - ]

· view-and-why-this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-prolonged-bear-market#@bitcoinsalvador/re-
multicripto-re-bitcoinsalvador-bitcoin-long-term-view-and-why-this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-
prolonged-bear-market-20180530t112352852z)
Thanks, I'll write second part later today
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introduce.bot (58) (/@introduce.bot)  ·  20 hours ago (/bitcoin/@bitcoinsalvador/bitcoin-long-term-view-and- [-]

why-this-is-not-the-bottom-and-we-will-see-prolonged-bear-market#@introduce.bot/introduce-bot-re-
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