Vinod Kumar, Scientist ‘E’ (retired)

Shyam Bhawan, Road No. 11, Ashok Nagar

Kankarbagh Colony, Patna-800020

Email: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com

Website: shraddhasuman.blogspot.in

Dated: 3rd June 2018

Figure 1

Smaller high pressure area east of 40ᵒW (minimum 25ᵒ width in longitude and 5ᵒ in latitude of one High
and one low is required for normal rainfall over India) and one low 20ᵒW-30ᵒE observed along 40ᵒS for
April-May 2018 at 850 hPa geo potential height, Figure 1. But for May 2018 one high and one low is
observed in Figure 2. Also at 700 hPa, one high and one low combination is maintained for May 2018,
figure 3. So, below normal rainfall, 92% with an error of ±06% is forecast for 2018 monsoon season over
India. It is based on LRF research article published in IGU journal in 2016.
Figure 2
Figure 3