June 07, 2018

Table of Contents Page No.

RBI Hiked Policy Rate Fearing Rising Inflation 3

How the Indian Equity Markets Fare in May 2018? 4

Strong Domestic Flows 5

Rising Crude Prices Widen the CAD 6

Market Trading at Premium and Widening Yields Spread 7

Top 5 Recommended Mutual Funds 8-13

Recommended Mutual Funds – Category-wise 14-15

Annexure

Model Portfolios - Mutual Funds 17

2
RBI Hiked Policy Rate Fearing Rising Inflation

RBI Repo Rate (%)  In June meeting, RBI has raised Repo rate and
9.0
Reverse Repo Rate by 25 bps to 6.25% and
6.00% respectively fearing rising inflation due
8.0 to surging crude oil prices. However, it retained
the “Neutral” stance.
7.0  RBI has also increased the CPI inflation
(including HRA) forecast to 4.8-4.9% in H1FY19
6.0
and 4.7% in H2FY19 from earlier estimates of
4.7-5.1% and 4.4% respectively.

5.0
 However, it has maintained the GDP growth
rate at 7.4% for FY19.
Jun/12

Jun/13

Jun/14

Jun/15

Jun/16

Jun/17

Jun/18
Oct/11

Oct/12

Oct/13

Oct/14

Oct/15

Oct/16

Oct/17
Feb/12

Feb/13

Feb/14

Feb/15

Feb/16

Feb/17

Feb/18
Inflation  The fear of rising inflation is also increasing
CPI Inflation (%) YoY Core Inflation (%) YoY owing to rise in crude oil prices. In last couple of
10.0
years, inflation had fallen significantly supported
9.0
8.0
by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, fall in
7.0 food inflation due to two good monsoons and
6.0 efficient food management by the government.
5.0
4.0
 In FY18, the CPI inflation dropped to 1.2% in
3.0 June 2017 from 11.5% in November 2013.
2.0 However, in the second half of the year, inflation
1.0 rose continuously owing to rising commodity
0.0
prices.
Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18
Jan-14

Oct-14
Jan-15

Oct-15
Jan-16

Oct-16
Jan-17

Oct-17
Jan-18
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

3
How the Indian Equity Markets Fare in May 2018?
NIFTY 50 MoM Return (%)
 Nifty 50 closed flat in May 2018 compared to
6.2
6.2% rise in April 2018. In May 2018, small-cap
5.8 5.6
4.7 and mid-cap stocks underperformed the large-
3.4
3.0
cap stocks. BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap were
down 5.9% and 6.3% respectively vs. 6.6% and
8.3% rise in April 2018 respectively.
0.0  The market was under pressure due to rising oil
-1.0
-1.6 -1.3 -1.1 prices, outcome of the Karnataka election and
corporate governance issues in some
-3.6
-4.9 corporates.
May-17

Dec-17

May-18
Apr-18
Jun-17

Aug-17

Mar-18
Oct-17

Nov-17

Jan-18
Jul-17

Sep-17

Feb-18

Sector Returns in May 2018 (%)  In sectors, financial sector (Nifty Bank, Nifty
5.6
4.3 3.7 Financial Services and Nifty PSU Bank)
0.1 outperformed the other sectors. Kotak
Mahindra Bank (up 10.2%), HDFC Bank (up 10%)
-1.8 -2.3
-3.8 and SBI Bank (9.4%) lifted the financial sector in
-4.8 -4.8 -5.4
May 2018.
-8.5 -9.3
 Pharma was the worst performer followed by
NIFTY BANK

NIFTY INFRA
NIFTY COMMODITIES
NIFTY PSU BANK

NIFTY METAL

NIFTY PHARMA
NIFTY FMCG

NIFTY REALTY
NIFTY ENERGY

NIFTY IT
NIFTY FINANCIAL SERVICES

NIFTY AUTO

Reality in May 2018. Pharma was pressurized

due to slow growth in the US, anticipated price
control in India, increasing competition and rise
in API prices.

4
Strong Domestic Flows

Equity (Rs crore)  FIIs continued to ditch the Indian equity market
Mutual Funds' Net Purchase/Sales FIIs' Net Purchase/Sales consecutively for the second month. FIIs had
13,372 13,691 net outflow of ~`8,000cr in May 2018
11,293 compared to ~`6,468cr in April 2018.
9,256
 Domestic mutual funds continued to pour in the
Indian equity market. In May 2018, domestic
mutual funds’ net purchase was ~`13,691cr
compared to ~`11,293cr in April 2018.
Domestic mutual funds are the net buyers in
-6,468 the Indian equity market for last 22 months
-8,081
Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 owing to strong SIP flows in mutual funds.
SIP Contribution  The total amount collected through SIP during
8,000
SIP (Rs crore) April 2018 was `6,690cr, up 57% yoy but down
7,000
6% mom.
6,000
 The AUM of Indian MF Industry had grown to
5,000
`23.26 lakh crore as on April 30, 2018 from
4,000
`5.05 lakh crore as on March 31, 2008, a more
3,000
than four and half times increase in a span of 10
2,000 years.
1,000
 The total number of accounts (folios) grew by 9
0 lakh during April 2018 to 7.22 crore. The number
Jun/16

Aug/16

Jun/17

Aug/17
Oct/16

Oct/17
Feb/17

Feb/18
Apr/16

Dec/16

Apr/17

Dec/17

Apr/18

of folios under Equity, ELSS and Balanced

schemes, wherein the maximum investment is
from retail segment grew by 5 lakh to 6.03 crore.
5
Rising Crude Prices Widen the CAD

CAD % of GDP  We expect rising crude oil price will further

8.0
widen the CAD.
7.0
 India's current account deficit (CAD) widened to
6.0 $13.5bn in Q3FY18, up from $8bn in Q3FY17 and
5.0 ~7.2% in the previous quarter.
4.0  CAD deteriorated due to higher trade deficit of
3.0 $44.1bn. Trade deficit widened due to an
2.0
increase in merchandise imports, primarily crude
oil and other petroleum product, which account
1.0
for more than 40% of India’s overall
0.0
merchandise import bill.
Jun/11

Jun/12

Jun/13

Jun/14

Jun/15

Jun/16

Jun/17
Oct/11

Oct/12

Oct/13

Oct/14

Oct/15

Oct/16

Oct/17
Feb/12

Feb/13

Feb/14

Feb/15

Feb/16

Feb/17
Brent Crude Oil ($)  The rising crude oil price is one of the biggest
120.0
concerns for the Indian economy, since we
110.0
import 80% of oil to meet domestic demand.
100.0
The crude oil is trading above ~70/barrel.
90.0
80.0
 The current oil price rally is result of agreement
70.0
among oil producers to cut the output.
60.0  The Economic Survey has estimated that a
50.0 $10/barrel rise in crude oil price can increase
40.0 WPI inflation by 1.7%, widen CAD by $9-10bn
30.0 and reduce economic growth by 0.2-0.3%.
Jun/13

Mar/14
Jun/14

Mar/15
Jun/15

Mar/16
Jun/16

Mar/17
Jun/17

Mar/18
Jun/18
Sep/13

Sep/14

Sep/15

Sep/16

Sep/17
Dec/13

Dec/14

Dec/15

Dec/16

Dec/17

6
Market Trading at Premium and Widening Yields Spread

Nifty Forward P/E  Currently, market is trading at ~8% premium to

18.0
Nifty Forward P/E 10 Years Average Nifty P/E its 10 year average P/E ratio. However, recovery
in economic scenario and commodity prices are
16.0
favourable tailwinds for corporate earnings
14.0 growth. In FY19, the corporate earnings will
grow in mid-teens after many years of single-
12.0 digit growth.
 The market has already factored in the earnings
10.0
recovery in the valuations, thus we might see
8.0
downward pressure on market for short-term.
Jun/08

Jun/09

Jun/10

Jun/11

Jun/12

Jun/13

Jun/14

Jun/15

Jun/16

Jun/17

Jun/18
Dec/08

Dec/09

Dec/10

Dec/11

Dec/12

Dec/13

Dec/14

Dec/15

Dec/16

Dec/17
Yield Spread  The spread between earnings yield and bond
12.0
Earning Yield (%) Bond Yield (%) yield has been widening since November 2016.
10.0
This has led to an increase in ‘Bond Equity
Earnings Yield Ratio’ (BEER), which signifies that
8.0 equity market is overvalued.
 Since the market is trading at slightly premium
6.0
valuations and yield spread is widening,
4.0 investors should focus on longevity to create
wealth in long term in equity mutual funds.
2.0 While in debt mutual funds, we recommend
Jun/01
Jun/02
Jun/03
Jun/04
Jun/05
Jun/06
Jun/07
Jun/08
Jun/09
Jun/10
Jun/11
Jun/12
Jun/13
Jun/14
Jun/15
Jun/16
Jun/17
Jun/18

clients to invest in funds with low modified

duration and average maturity.
7
Top 5 Recommended Mutual Funds

Since the market is trading at slightly premium valuations and yield spread is widening, investors
should focus on longevity of their investments to create wealth in long term. To create wealth
for investors, we have short-listed five mutual funds as follows.

Scheme Name Fund Manager AUM (` cr) 1 Y (%) 3 Y (%) 5 Y (%)

ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Fund(G) Sankaran Naren 28,807 5.4 11.6 17.3

SBI BlueChip Fund(G) Sohini Andani 19,088 6.9 11.1 17.8

Axis Focused 25 Fund(G) Jinesh Gopani 3,714 18.3 15.7 17.9

Tata Equity P/E Fund(G) Sonam Udasi 3,520 10.4 16.7 24.1

DSPBR Midcap Fund-Reg(G) Vinit Sambre 5,720 3.4 16.2 25.0

Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
AUM as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 8
Source: ACE MF
 ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Fund
(Erstwhile ICICI Pru Balanced Fund)
Fund Basic Details
Fund Benchmark CRISIL Hybrid 35+65 - Aggressive Index AUM (`cr) 28,807
Nil on 10% of units within 1Y and 1% for more
Inception Date Nov-1999 Exit Load
than 10% of units within 1Y, Nil after 1Y
Fund Manager Sankaran Naren, Atul Patel Expense Ratio 2.11%
 It is an equity-oriented balanced fund, which does tactical Asset Allocation
allocation between debt and equity, based on the market outlook
to ensure optimal risk reward.
26% Large Cap

 The fund increases its exposure in debt market when the market is Mid Cap

overvalued and increases its allocation to equity when market is Small Cap
10% 57%
undervalued. Others

6% Debt
1%
 As of April 2018, the fund had invested ~64% of AUM in equity to
give steady growth over long term, while ~26% is allocated to debt
investments to cap the downside risk. The fund has invested ~57% Returns (%)
of the AUM in large-cap stocks, while ~7% is invested in mid-cap 17.3
and small-cap stocks. 12.7
11.6
10.6

 Investors who want to follow balanced approach i.e. 65% equity 5.4
7.5

and ~35% debt can invest in the scheme to create wealth in long
term.
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Fund Benchmark
Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
Portfolio as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 9
Source: ACE MF
 SBI BlueChip Fund

Fund Basic Details

Fund Benchmark S&P BSE 100 - TRI AUM (` cr) 19,088

Inception Date Jan-2006 Exit Load 1% on or before 1Y, Nil after 1Y

Fund Manager Sohini Andani Expense Ratio 1.97%

 It is an equity fund, which primarily invests in top 100 stocks by Asset Allocation
market capitalization. The fund invests in companies which have
2%
significant market share and are market leaders in their industries. 8%
9% Large Cap
 As of April 2018, the fund had invested ~81% of AUM in large-cap Mid Cap
stocks and ~11% was allocated to mid-cap and small-cap stocks to Small Cap
give steady growth over long term. Others
81%
 The fund had highest allocation to Private Banks (~16%), followed
by Finance-NBFC (~6.3%) and Pharma (~6%).
Returns (%)
 Investors who want to primarily invest in diversified portfolio of 17.8
large-cap stocks can invest in this fund to create wealth in long 14.4

term. 10.2
11.1 11.3

6.9

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Fund Benchmark
Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
Portfolio as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 10
Source: ACE MF
 Axis Focused 25 Fund

Fund Basic Details

Fund Benchmark NIFTY 50 - TRI AUM (` cr) 3,714
Nil for 10% of investments and 1% in excess of
Inception Date Jun-2012 Exit Load
limit within 1Y, Nil after 1Y
Fund Manager Jinesh Gopani Expense Ratio 2.04%

 It is an equity fund that invests in high conviction stocks, maximum Asset Allocation
25 stocks, from top 200 stocks by market capitalization.
1%
11%
 The fund’s strategy is to invest in quality companies with credible Large Cap
management, sustainable profit growth and cash flow, and having Mid Cap
clean balance sheet. 28%
Small Cap
60%
Others
 As of April 2018, the fund has invested ~60% of AUM in large-cap
stocks and ~28% is allocated to mid-cap stocks to give steady
growth over long term. The fund had highest allocation to Private
Banks (~19%), followed by IT-Software (~10%) and Auto Ancillary Returns (%)
(~8.5%). 18.3 17.9
15.7
13.7
 Investors who want to take exposure in high conviction large-cap 11.0 10.7

and mid-cap stocks can invest in the fund to create wealth in long
term.

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Fund Benchmark
Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
Portfolio as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 11
Source: ACE MF
 Tata Equity P/E Fund

Fund Basic Details

Fund Benchmark S&P BSE Sensex - TRI AUM (`cr) 3,520

Inception Date Jun-2004 Exit Load 1% on or before 18M, Nil after 18M

Fund Manager Sonam Udasi Expense Ratio 2.15%

 It is a value conscious equity fund, which aims to invest 70-100% of Asset Allocation
its AUM in stocks whose 12 months rolling PE ratio is lower than
12 month rolling PE ratio of BSE Sensex. The remaining AUM is 7%
9%
allocated in other equity and debt instruments. Large Cap
15% Mid Cap
 As of April 30, 2018, the fund has invested ~69% of AUM in large- Small Cap
cap stocks and ~25% is allocated to mid-cap and small-cap stocks to 69% Others
generate higher returns over long term. The fund had highest
allocation to Private Banks (~10%), followed by Finance-Housing
(~9%) and Refineries (~9%).
Returns (%)
 Investors who are value conscious and want to invest in large-cap
24.1
and mid-cap stocks can invest in the fund.
16.7
12.9 13.8
10.4 10.7

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Fund Benchmark
Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
Portfolio as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 12
Source: ACE MF
 DSP BlackRock Mid Cap Fund
(Erstwhile DSP BlackRock Small & Mid Cap Fund)
Fund Basic Details
Fund Benchmark Nifty Midcap 100 - TRI AUM (`cr) 5,720

Inception Date Nov-2006 Exit Load 1% before 1Y, Nil on or after 12Y

Fund Manager Vinit Sambre, Jay Kothari Expense Ratio 2.38%

 It invests in stocks beyond top 100 companies, based on market Asset Allocation
capitalization. The fund manager follows bottom-up approach to 4%
15%
select the stocks. invests in stocks with consistent earnings and
15%
significant growth potential. Large Cap
Mid Cap
 As of April 2018, ~66% of its AUM was invested mid-cap stocks, Small Cap
~15% was invested in large-cap stocks and ~15% in small-cap stocks Others
to generate high returns for investors. The fund had highest
66%
allocation to Private Banks (~10%), followed by Pharma (~8.7%)
and Finance-NBFC (~7%).
Returns (%)
 Investors who want to primarily invest in mid-cap and small-cap 25.0
stocks can invest in this fund to create wealth in long term. 19.7
16.2
14.0

3.4 3.1

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

Fund Benchmark
Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
Portfolio as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 13
Source: ACE MF
 Recommended Mutual Funds – Category-wise

AUM
Scheme Name Fund Manager 6 M (%) 1 Y (%) 3 Y (%) 5 Y (%)
(` Cr)

Balanced Fund
HDFC Balanced Fund(G) Chirag Setalvad 21,779 0.0 7.0 10.8 18.7
ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Fund(G) Sankaran Naren 28,807 -1.7 5.4 11.6 17.3
Large Cap
ICICI Pru Bluechip Fund(G) Sankaran Naren 17,142 1.1 9.9 11.8 16.6
SBI BlueChip Fund-Reg(G) Sohini Andani 19,088 1.2 6.9 11.1 17.8
Multi-Cap
Axis Focused 25 Fund(G) Jinesh Gopani 3,714 7.8 18.3 15.7 17.9
Tata Equity P/E Fund(G) Sonam Udasi 3,520 2.0 10.4 16.7 24.1
Mid-Cap
Franklin India Prima Fund(G) R. Janakiraman 6,686 -1.0 6.3 13.8 24.4
HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund(G) Chirag Setalvad 21,357 -3.3 5.9 14.6 25.1
Small-Cap
Franklin India Smaller Cos Fund(G) R. Janakiraman 7,517 -5.6 5.7 15.3 27.9
HDFC Small Cap Fund-Reg(G) Chirag Setalvad 3,647 1.8 20.2 21.1 23.6

Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
AUM as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 14
Source: ACE MF
 Recommended Mutual Funds – Category-wise

AUM
Scheme Name Fund Manager 6 M (%) 1 Y (%) 3 Y (%) 5 Y (%)
(` Cr)

ELSS
Aditya Birla SL Tax Relief '96(G) Ajay Garg 6,060 1.1 14.3 14.1 21.9
Axis Long Term Equity Fund(G) Jinesh Gopani 17,263 7.0 16.5 12.6 23.0
Debt Mutual Funds
Aditya Birla SL Savings Fund(G) Kaustubh Gupta 19,753 2.9 6.6 8.0 8.6
Sachin Padwal-
Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund-Super Inst(G) 12,880 3.5 7.6 8.8 9.3
Desai
Reliance Low Duration Fund(G) Amit Tripathi 16,631 2.7 6.2 7.5 8.1
Rajeev
SBI Magnum Low Duration Fund(G) 10,431 3.0 6.3 7.5 8.1
Radhakrishnan

Returns less than 1 year are absolute; Returns greater than 1 year are CAGR.
AUM as on: April 2018; Returns as on June 05, 2018 15
Source: ACE MF
 Annexure
• Model Portfolios – Mutual Funds

16
Model Portfolios – Mutual Funds

Aggressive Moderate Conservative

Sr. Allocation Sr. Allocation Sr. Allocation

Scheme Name Scheme Name Scheme Name
No. (%) No. (%) No. (%)

Tata Equity P/E DSPBR Equity &

1 25% HDFC Corporate
Fund(G) 1 Bond Fund- 25% 1 20%
Bond Fund(G)
Reg(G)
HDFC Mid-Cap DSPBR Equity &
2 Opportunities 20% HDFC Balanced
2 20% 2 Bond Fund- 20%
Fund(G) Fund(G)
Reg(G)
Franklin India SBI BlueChip HDFC Balanced
3 20% 3 25% 3 20%
Prima Fund(G) Fund-Reg(G) Fund(G)

DSPBR Midcap Tata Equity P/E Tata Equity P/E

4 20% 4 15% 4 20%
Fund(G) Fund(G) Fund(G)
Franklin India HDFC Mid-Cap
5 Smaller Cos 15% SBI BlueChip
5 Opportunities 15% 5 20%
Fund(G) Fund-Reg(G)
Fund(G)

Total 100% Total 100% Total 100%

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