Viewpoint: Sustainability: Malthus Revisited?

James A. Brander (2007)

This paper seeks to provide a current assessment of the resource sustainability debate. There are two types of
thought that dominate the sustainability debate; the optimists and the pessimists. The main disagreement
between the two, concerns the likelihood of a turning point in human living standards. Can living standards be
maintained or improve into the indefinite future or will there be a sudden crash?

Sustainability research has grown from 3 topics.

1. Overpopulation – focuses on population growth as the driving force behind environmental degradation
and resource over use.
2. Resource Degradation – concerns about environmental degradation
3. Limits to growth – if present growth trends continue unchanged, the limits to growth will be reached by
2072 (according to Meadows, Meadows, and Randers)
Branders assessment is that sustainable development should refer to improvement in living standards that is
consistent with ecological balance.

In order to address the relationship between the sustainability debate and Malthus it is helpful to use a formal
model of Malthusian demography in the presence of ecological constraints. The main determinants of whether
long-run sustainability can occur at something other than a Malthusian trap steady state are the existence and
extent of a demographic transition, technological progress; and economic policy regimes.

The central question in the sustainability debate is whether population growth will overshoot environmental
carrying capacity. Brander looks at the Pearl (1927) experiment where they placed fruit flies in a sealed bottle. The
fruit flies experience the same exponential growth that humans have experienced in the last several hundred
years. The fruit flies then reached a level of subsistence and the flies began to die. They were subject to a carrying
capacity. The question thus becomes, how many humans can the earth support? and if population will be checked
by increases in mortality?

Brander believes that in order to reach Population stability; a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of about 2.1 is required. The
reason why the rate is 2.1 and not 2.0 is because there will be some females born who will not reach their
childbearing years.

Statistics show that the world as a whole has experienced a substantial decline in fertility from 1950 present.
Overall world fertility has fallen by almost 50%. This reduction in TFR implies that population growth rates will
continue to fall, but a TFR of 2.65 (the current world level) still implies relatively rapid population growth.

Some measures of scientific and technological progress have been increasing. However, as far as actual
enhancement of the earth’s carrying capacity and ability to forestall Malthusian effects are concerned,
technological has been significantly slower. The following three facts are of particular concern.
1. Relatively little progress has been made in the energy sector over the past 50 years.
2. Progress in agriculture has slowed in recent years.
3. Humans have lost ground in the battle against infectious disease. As populations become denser,
transmission of infectious disease becomes a more serious risk.

The modern sustainability debate has become very sophisticated from and has largely shifted away from the
Malthusian focus on population growth. The most fundamental sustainability factor is demography, as originally
identified by Malthus. Accordingly, the demographic transition to lower fertility is the central element in achieving
sustainable development, which is a modern translation of what Malthus wrote.