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    Cap.08 - Vulnerability Assessment - Introductory Methods PDF

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    Cap.08 - Vulnerability Assessment - Introductory Methods PDF

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    Numa Io
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    Cap.08 - Vulnerability Assessment - Introductory Methods PDF

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    Numa Io

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    — ——————— ee ‘component and wser-suppled values for certain DOP quantities. It img Vulnerability iments the methodologies dscaned in this chapter to determine OS Weeaponsecuracy and allocates each eror into 4 Bis anon come = ponent, which maybe combined for acarcy purposes but kept sept Assessment In onder to cleat elictivenen corey, "The user again has to supply data inte shaed cel anough represen Introductory ‘lo boning on corer edie fe moe who Methods juny Reterences eduction Nk, ame te! atin as, Wy Fis ctupe isis the detract efits tht wepons ane 1 tai seen =! Gregson tes bh he bly ofthe weapon an the 1 fin ken nie nd ets ch Ho Shy of herp ts imocary chon of the 1 Yuet ME. “ttn of Po (0) Calton fr Min ai weapon eflctveness = discussed in terms of an effectiveness fe NS, tha chun nd avn Egimerng Dp Ni fr EL In the advanced section ofthe book, more detailed effects eas ES pected Nghe bsiy mete ht ae deste ane of te cove th top ane somewhat compl Bsr the ete ao a wot approche hen thapter the terminlogy td base pprnch wil be explained making sone simplifying aesurpions te calulatio of thalty tect next chapter, sme ofthe sping assumptions wil be ad elerence wl be ade to pelos ey the MEM it casa lethality to Effectiveness Indices ulnerbity of particu target ta weapon willbe interest of analysts cach with thee own perspective on the requirements messes of damage From ie weaponcering poli ie the on fo studying the vlneabty to dterrine «nae mesures the efectvenes of spatula weapon against ‘One sch mesite Known a an ftivenn nde (I) abo be refered to a lesa area,o damage unton. An EL fel fora gen degree of damage by a speie weupon 1 @ sarge les oF include thefllowing of lective due to fagments (MAE, f°) of fetvnes du obs (MAE) | | Requirements for the Computation of Indices 3. Vulnerable zea (Ay, f°) 4. ge fective index BEL A) 5: Mean ara of efscvenes fora bling (MAE nin) ©. lective mist distance (EMD, 7. Disrpeve dlamete fr example, cries (a 8) The specific ature af damage inflicted on he target i unl ef toasa damage defiition ane vanes for diferent pes of target Somes {he wod liad instead of damage, andthe words velo entron wae Instead of definiton. Therefore, pieses nich st damage defition lev or damage ereron are synonmns Example a hill defiony focsome target ype ae shown in Table 8 Append CIsts most ofthe ge types vulnerable to content ‘weapons andthe il definitions sorted withthe, Ao shown te ‘ommendations forthe types of weapon fective spin thal pt tage "To illsrate the arbi of EX wth target, weapon, sn lx ‘onside the effet ofboth Mk 500th bom nda ik 842000 vith ize that detonates the weapon on input Representative MAE ma {s(n fare shown n Table 3.2 or various target types and hl ei Readers should understand the tends asl wlth the El vale the weapon target and kl definition vary alelatng an cequies considerable time, owed, experts, nd at and in general the following elements wl be nde 1, Definon ofthe kl evel eguired ble cxarrlor ct Detnton Essai nn Sot red rac 8m apr oer garg ea Se Pts ea Pte nqueg 20 eso ra 308 ‘Su pr wom 2 ‘Si fe i See ‘Se on 2h ofthe physi geometric and funcional deseipton of andthe components that are contained! within ofthe celle components of he forge, that which eo bled inorder to achieve the kl evel) required eka ret fe the weapon tobe used agit he target ico what damage level equced kl each of he components to compat the appropriate othe en combition fart ane il level the eft of parte weapon on a tage of interes ‘des are uly done for eac l dfn of erst see wher the target vlaeabey toa wide ange ted warhead characterise made lle by tenn aeent where the computation of EL ta specific ‘and detonation scenario mde tional fo this appro that theresa ison enough, that I considers anges of ragment mas agent Dat rd te. dat are sulin wide, le wl cover ll cure eaten characteristics fr fate weapons Thi eit all tobe performed once Ase new weapon or warheads developed, yo al existing targets that wathead maybe exacted ofthe ulnerabty ty avd on the warhead characteris study the vainersty of pete targets to canventonal Weapons, nse the ees af the primary damage mechaisms 3 weapon loc. ncadng the following ‘charge and EC ature of thee damage mechanisms was described i detall in 1: however,» pacar sathead may produce ene oF mote fects and othe combined effet ofeach damage mechani ————————————— ‘on the tage wl have to be determine, In terms of modeling complexity, fragments present the mast challenges, and a0 this wil Be deal with st Initial Velocity of Fragments fora Spherical Shell Cpboug not apple to conventional weapons, the fllowing is be eompetenss: Collecting and Characterizing Warhead vee 6x) Fragment Data sxc “Todetermie the ecient of agen’ on materiel and sont tng th charac sch ages hve oe mesure fr nak ‘Average Mass of Fragments wcteed/iomt pe This dacttaton I aly ached tag muses wily nenived in gale vbere 700 rics = {Shing andthe proces ot matue int anda apprenh The Sleek deve wl be © drm of fagment mae, te process usual refed to aaron testing Beaune the state warhoad fons ingen by |S sutounded by avout devios tat determine the nue, weight, es ‘ct, and region of origin of faginents produced when ie detonate a wa ‘ling he testo in he peliinary stage of weapon desig, sme ex Tate ofthe vrous agment characteris need to be made in nde to rode a "starting point for the colton of dats, Theoretical api ff bunting elindr shellfen refered fo athe Gumey suai Yields the allowing resus, standard hel this doesnot allow forthe large fragments that the nse oe fuse ate. META nitiat votocity of Fragments for a Cylindsical Shot “The theoreti velocky of fegments immediatly following detonation Isgvenby Number of Fragments Having a Specific Mass is asuly given by the two-dimensional Most distribution bs gre CMON fGaper' sc 210 = TCIM ag ae -toim vere eel ee 5) =n fgment veo ALi ttt peng on te epoie (8400) Sf eats Cia = ta ofthe went expt the weight fhe al met cue (gr) Caing clot fm te fowing ef males ape odered (ge) c.f Spat Distbuton of Fragments MM Puli /DF) — 1 zoe rent evel vc rnd the waren ca the cutie deter of shel in fom eae us he ett ne omen eros tne meter ls bse rasa ube of wpe or very bg agent enay eon crn the ont and rer ofthe igen Te a py enya metal psn bout the SO-dog line but is deleted by the explenie EE CHAPTER @ Vuinerabilly Amesement—inirocuctory M&O 20 Weaponeeing: Conventional Weapon Sytem EXectivenest detonation wave, bout 5 deg buchards for 3 nose ze ae bythe same mount forward bya tar base fe "The fragment characteristics are usualy defined within zones that ae conc rgs define by boundaries dang ut fom the wchetd com ted shown in two dimensions i 'A tpl se of ones fora weapon I shown In Fig. 82 fo 18 zonal ements of 10 dog however, note in ths gram the rages nto fom each alang the warhead rather than rom sng on. twovdl point In thee dimensions ora ar bursting munition the conical 2one wil spray fragments onto the ground plane nthe manner shown i Fig 82. ei asumed that dhe rgment spray pattern 6 radalysymmetil about the weapon ai therfre, the est rea configured in the man ‘Shown sig 8 where esd ie designed o collet he erent ther ‘eles wil the other side determines thewloy ofthe gent. "The fragment recovery aes consis of tberbourd panels in which the fragments become embeded. The fragment are then remove, counted ‘nd weighed. The velocity panels are costed wih a plezcectric mate that ashes when impacted by a eagent. This process toorded by high Speed cameras behind the fash panes that algo record pment ingad ties From thee measurement the tne takes the gent to tae to the panel maybe clad. The panel impact may alo be ecoeda by determing when the hole in the pane ocare. OF cou the have to be sient far fom the detonstion so that they are damaged bythe Blast wave ym wave soovapmenes 9.82. Complete sot of togmentaon snes collection panes have the fragmentation zones projected onto termine which fragments bolong in which zones as indicted 3. MEET dota Anaiysis Although the photographic velo Vp is defined a the dsc te ‘led by the fragment dvd by theme ital thas tobe eons at th acl agen wot ae oe ts hot dace. Wa ‘needed to characte the fragments isthe measure [a apposed (Gin velocity, hat Is the veloc with which he fase leaves the shall This conte follows ig 88 rcren! snes pojcteien cava parse rag cafe (apronitely 06) sie density esis! : erage presenta are ofthe Fagment in trie of he ramon, rane aeustion stds because diferent rag coef is needed ngnent and volnstsoda representative agent eee and mr perormed at or tht vale. The rsing voc hen tobe constant for all agents recovered in hat one ras and numberof fgets ae more es handed than vel- a thes data re ako souped, usally ageregite. or than one tes nt each zone. Then within each zone the woh into bis andthe average weight in each bn determined number of agents again averaged ver several (et his average wight hen clelted its foreach zo ave tobe scald ccount forthe it hat onby ollingment are captred Ths cling done aleltingthe pation ctr Zaltough ths tri acl using the al geometry ofthe Fagen zone and Hogmenteaptare two-dimensional istration ofthe concep wb presented Fig i whch shows a view along the hora mount fue a detonation, A verti capture panel of ght is st dltance rs te mntion si (hat the A Engments are projected rail a nifrm the proportion of fragments impacting the panel wil be ges by a = 12K /K°, rain = miAw* isin 6s ee 84 ariel Hoge: coptue An 8 pane lasted 25 om the wathend would have & 2; = 196, ‘Therefore ithe total numberof egment aptred bythe pl in tha one is No, then the number of ragments produce bythe wad N=Nexzr 69 ‘The total number of eagments opted within each 29 sled the sane dependent 2-toetnte the total numberof tngents produced | bythe warhed: However because ntl fragments ae recovered rm he ‘es the tl amber af agents shown ine cl from the number a fragments collected nthe te 38 fle Keon = eK 210) here Wis the toa ss ofthe sel esing and the total weigh of ‘Eayments recovered nthe test rom ll zone Ths al eling shown (610) applied to each rgment zone The speceton of fragment mass, yd and numberof ramen is ws 0 define the Zt fle foreach zone. The Z-data ef the en ‘esl ofthe test and sof prime ua inthe efeciveneecalelton, The ata le has he forma shown in Table 82. ‘The firs thre numbers ge the angular boundaries, nd fo ths slat 0 deg (weapon acs nos) and extend to 20 dg witha mio 10 deg. The fragment velcties at thee angles are 550, 47%, SOLD, respectively The mid-pcat velo of $300 er to that measured fom the usta fast described, and the ee te inerpolted ftom Ue next sone Their se wl be explained ate ‘The numb indicates there are five pina angst weight ‘his re, The fst group hasan eeroge weight of 0.1 ring and he seo average 2977 fragments thi weigh the next group 55.67 ragments weighing an verge of 36 grins anal o'on ‘Compartment vs Component Vulnerability ley mod vide whole tg it compen 0 fe tip sve wd haw torneo mn Ppthcn pina engine cmparner ow Soom * Mach acexcsratn he roby linge nie utd By afa nga peng te conprnere scope Maerck hea prc odd the vey to ls by epmorng th ctl congeners inthe coma engi cece fect a Mice pp marc, el fcr ands or Th alowed eas ast oil sche ihe sapere defor te eae ofthe bsk ol component ng sthueraton may be made eve egding the lerences aay and alert. e ae aterested in tying he _wegponeesng: Conventional Weapon Sysiom Efectveress survivability of the MLA tank to ahead om county X, we hae all ‘owed fal fhe components in the age (ank) bt onan estinte ofthe warhead characterises. On the ote hand, fe want study the ‘fects of US. Arty standard 1-c0m shell pint» miele lunch from country Ye know exactly the characters ofthe warhead and ebably ver ltd about the commponets inside the mise auncher. ‘Obaining dtd inlormaton on targets common though ic problem fr weaponeers because args of interest are arly avabl for Inspection and aalss yeas we wile, sich etal needed I msn. fal eslts regarding the vulnerability of the target ae 10 be obtained, As ‘weaponeers we eo reyom whatever data are avaible regarding poten {hal enemy targets and these dat te ery dependent on ineligenc ner ‘mation In the absence of hard data surogation methods may have ob ‘hed by gaating #tret aboot which known to ama tagt shout which moe information known. “The general approach to vulnerability assessment ito assess wheter the kl el has bon ace by determining how many and bi om ponents that make up he trpet ve boon snd hl. The de rition of exactly what comprises a component i somewhat vague bu Aepends upon the level of accuracy needed in the shah For vamp It we cose the age o be vel, one component ofthe target the propel mst. However, this may be dived nto smaller com nent suchas the engine gearbox. cling system. letcal contra find so on. AS we have sein the preceding Seton he engine may Farther ddd into ts sabcoenponents ‘One important parameter prodced by 2 vlnersity snae is “This is the probably thar the objet is killed (o a specie kee Is The word “ocr” used Because Py coud refer to an indivi onponea of to the whole uret. Another ter in common USE Tele 84 Defton of Varctes adn Vury An ei dieghe mem gare mena “sot teing eo pve ee ‘nai ose de cnc gant ore ‘Sex psy ete ars macy my meer pont nee | Fray ase nen ge 2 tage os ‘msi ce ge | afi ‘ere ‘ «| CT a FRAGMENT VELOCITY, FPS 19 88 rogly gopn foro src comoanent ly. For example the probity thatthe target survives ait 5 omplrent of probably the target skilled shit ye We wate Pow om Pon= this point we wilintrdace some notational convention wen this esd by Bal 2) allowing oso diferente betwen complete an the components conned win them ths convertion ys tr toa whle tape wie lowercase els 10 8 ampovens Some sample tra to be sed ater re ted a os asc dat sed in 3 vlnerablty assesment are Pune an nay be deternined experimentally by fring singe fagrents of Vagments at diferent velocies atthe component fom non, Anaesth tesing en aan tat predict penetration of» component and is subsequent loss However itis determined. peal data that might result fom fate dwn in Eg 88 Known 5 «fg cue, Fo 3 com there wl one tity curve fr cach lee. neon frm forte fait curve sown n Fig 89 for + \ re Spd yeh Po.811 cen tetwoen penecondwdneate eas ‘Thee forms are generally used when minimum nergy needed 9c ny damage and masimam energy need otal fl the component se {stmated anda linear rolaconshp tn beren Is assed ee ees Bs an oe nt eS cae |" ju vutnorabl Area rend te rere “This es quantitative menue of vnc that maybe apie 0 single component ora complete target. When applied os whol rt Mend Noncitlical Components fmeffectvenss index. or EL The vlrble are defined asthe produ (tthe preseted are ins pine nal othe veloc eae of the ens of target maybe define ciel or non-rtl ‘ment and the probably of kl given 9h. An example of he preset fcomponent se tht led cance a target il whereas a Bo ‘ren wuld be te ars nsiethe boundary ofthe engine shown in Fg 810 oes no ead cect eo target leis portant o ‘We nay wre for a target titel components In vulnerability analyss, however, ay shld ential components to such next! he cca a does nat abr sien damage to il thereby preven er pena I. good example of non-rcl component amor pate \dant and Nonredundant Critical 1s sd to be nonredundant if killing that component ia tage il Redundant components require tht several 4 tage hl esl Redundant components are aay group or syste, such that «group il ress a arget Jtinay noc be necesary for ell redundant components tobe to produce group Kl For example, a aca my have tad sable to By on bo of hoe, The engines compe the — ‘nd are indvdaly redundant bacuse hing one ot 1g.810-Hotnted oa cto component. esl ingroup kil hence nota target Kl Killing thee S08 Seepeneey Comentonsl WeqpenGeem Seine OPER Vceec ance EN TE |RMEKTT target Vulnerability to Single Fragments BS Regent Cone eee geneenenen: JOMAPTERe Vunerabity Amenmert—wwoduotay Methods | 209 engines does ower rest na group ill therefore a target il. These diferent velocities atthe cormponeat Ifthe probably ofa ag ‘omponentsae linked by a hilt, sometimes eer to a8 diblement | Mangthe th components utormly dated over the presented ‘lag or FALT (sre arly and loge te) eh age, ec wate Pun = Aldo os) ocasc its ao known from the dention of valnerable area Eq (813) ‘We wl now analyze the vulnerabltyof target tothe penetration of sage ragment na ene cleat Py In doing. enderstond that Pan the following condone appr sbstitating Eos. (8.18) and (8.19) nw Eq (17) ges tA aw 1 The appropriate kl lee has Been define. 2 The deen the eagment approaches he tage hen. 20) 3 The mas and velit ofthe fragment are known, Recall that thie the ft step in our anasic the vlnerablity sd conan where weslet an appropriate gent mass and vlc. The robb * nl target survives a single fragment hit onthe target i as follows (the probe Peon =1—T] (2— = bility the fst rca component survives) AND (he probabiety she ‘cond erties! component sees) AND and so of If he trget Som fil form of Eg (621) 6 prises N nonredundant cxiteal components ony, his condition may be ‘wren athena Eons 0 equations wl ow be spied fur aes hat dl with he where Pte probity th cite componen sive sion on of eelpping ad nonoerppngfedundan and target Weran write ‘omnponent. Remember tit inthe anal tht flows, Poo [tan [fad 7) mie Paw Pan [Lan “The probability the target rile given the target it s @: Target Composed of Nonredundant Paw = =P =1~ [J Aind a | Components with No Overlap = he get shown in Fig 812 comping a armored vee “The probability thatthe th component skilled, gven thatthe target the et sie with tee non-redundant erica! components: ‘nt, may Be express in the orm the engin, an fo! tank oA . of he ahs eo determine the pbb the trget Pa = Pe Pa ® ‘by singe fragentspproiching it om the les the where Py the probability the th component it, ven the srs In ig 812. The data needed to compute th ale consist Int and Py isthe probably the th ermponeat i kil i the th are Ay ofeach of he vlneabe component the corre ponent hie fh ots i git curves forthe il deiition of "Ar mentioned blore he val of hy maybe determined from the presenedars ofthe target We cold se (821) 0 fexgly cures obtained experimentally by fring diferent Bot simpler computational frm wil be dered 3 serial nate ofthe il res perhaps counterintuitive, butt isthe Fo 812 Taget win nee novovetaning nnecince components helo enacts hat he age killed ifthe orepevet theo Ie ndash the ae Mlle O8 th fc stem ilod OR the engine killed Com- moment Fr istrative purposes the indi component vse ith nal probable of crane sing an OR sate teas wl be computed trom Eg, (13) adding hele probs 2s idea by Eq (20, ‘Before doing this however, there are some weds to Ee (82 are other expressions that maybe desved from Eg, (820. For nhc enforces the speceation tht we have novel. non fant components. For ths stem, N'= 3, and ao expending Bq wee (825) Peon = Pan + Pay + Pra ~ (PayaPian + PnP an +n s allows vs to compile ible Iting foreach etl component Se = en probably ol giver hi vulnerable are ad at ontibuton to the probity of alng the complete ccna there i only one fragment andthe itil component do mt A shows bth inp ata and computed values fora speciic overall products of probables must be 2x0, and 30 ere ‘ abl, the bold ens repesent known dats the res com Fem Cuer+ Foun + Fee) Drm oko for A comped tn £1) and the Pe 82D, The fin! ray be computed from Eq. (828) 0 Ieispossbleto define lee for this target in terms ofthe thee et fh raul of ths proves isthe computation of vulneabie cal components ae shown in Fig 13 the spe ragenent mae, veloc, and ection, ha 68 = Target Composed of Nonredundant t :al Components That Overlap a ‘tcl components overap in paula ve a8 shown in 6a simplipingassumpion wil be male namely that when ag = though thes component it doesnot oe mas or vlc It doesnot matter which verapping components strck is Ei we ares dealing with oneesindan cites component the + the same as Fig 81; however, (8.28) cannot be wed bees fp region make ome ofthe products of probable in Eq (8.23) — For example, a single fragment could Kl both the engine and e.813 stro ter ome 0 xl aweeie | neanacoa reas ofthe reining fel and engine have Bren reduced by the ‘The process or dang wth this ease it teat the vel region a separate nonredundant component (denotes) ith own presente are and Fe The area the common area of rela Between he fa ‘ak and engine or this spec which we lla 20 But the gusto Is wt iss Phy? Consider fragment psn tough the overlap ‘gon, Il cane one ofthe lowing fou events to ce 1, The engine le, bat heft tank sss, 2. The flanked it eglne sure 5. Hoth the engine aid fuel tank are led. 4. Both engine and fel ak mane “The fourth posible outcome, the probability that the engne and fa system both survive, teeny one no ending oa target Kl may be ‘buerved thatthe probaly that one ofthe ist thee events oats ‘equal to 1—{the probability that both engine ad fel tank aries ‘singe agent hi ache vel area} Hence we may were face from Table 86 tha he ttl Py bat gone down, as has the le ate of te eng ¢: Target Composed of Some Redundant ‘Components with No Overlap. fargt now const of wo Sul tanks a shown n Eig 8.15 rach that fn survive with ony one fe tak not hile, uti the ew -consderation they donot overap le ssn thatthe second Gl tank asthe sare presented ares ist but to datigush we wil further assume tha If yy =O hoe ofa eedundant component changes the le a6 shown In “The paral paths throgh the two fel tanks date tat bth ave to be kl inorder Bl he target Noe that hi kal ree fenton the kl rite considered. wo fl tanks may be thought of ak compaising the el suppy ‘The probability the target senses sgl ts gen by 3 aed Probabltyengne survives at) = Fae Probability fl tank survives @ Nt =~ Psa Probabltyenge AND flank survives 2 hi on the overlap) = Papal Paya) Problengine OR ful OR both ate lad by bit on dhe cvetph T= (=P ~Pya) (628) So ftom Eq (826) and the dat in Table 85, we ca eaealite 0704-072 «2 “This tthe Ay ted forthe common ovelip a Nowa revised tbl ‘able 6 smart Table 65 may be produc forth cae Noe how - ee ee ee APTS Vaeny Ansean-—romceeey eee S08 eae teat more than oe agent his he age he pss of ra eth flanks wuld have be comidered. = ‘CASE d: Target Composed of Some Redundant Critical Components That Overlap “an | fae ie town i Fl 17 eps i ston. er rts the fel tan wl be etd se rfndat components a se Fhe nthng to te tye velserabity ov verb ae sn preceding se, Th ove ep ml however cotibate fo the anes Brie the cvecap region wil be ete a separate component Fa.816 salvo arco Aver ks pent arn mened rm the vew conse Hee on ee 30 Toe mane usin elo Bt arropts to hs conpnent? he ach a comnts, otha pe us beiesys singe eget ey oh ae Pam= Pain * Fam * Par ‘fuel supply ray ‘The =a oem aan oe where Pye is the probability that the fuel supply group survives a sing Re eriden! Pa vilucs ( iy fue steer eben er a eh al cc Fam ies ey a A a fine gl At bees re ow siwn singe ls ca sen te iboats Hence yy = and aa ee Peis=Pan

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