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Marshall 1997
Marshall 1997
A New Method for Adding a Parameter to a Family of Distributions with Application to the
Exponential and Weibull Families
Author(s): Albert W. Marshall and Ingram Olkin
Source: Biometrika, Vol. 84, No. 3 (Sep., 1997), pp. 641-652
Published by: Biometrika Trust
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2337585 .
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SUMMARY
A newway ofintroducing a parameterto expanda familyofdistributions is introduced
and appliedto yielda new two-parameter extensionoftheexponentialdistribution which
may serveas a competitorto such commonly-used two-parameter familiesof lifedistri-
butions as the Weibull,gamma and lognormaldistributions. In addition,the general
methodis appliedto yielda new three-parameter Weibull distribution.
Familiesexpanded
using the methodintroducedhere have the propertythat the minimumof a geometric
numberof independentrandomvariableswithcommondistribution in the familyhas a
distributionagain in the family.Bivariateversionsare also considered.
Some key words:Bivariategeometricdistribution;Copula; Geometricextremestability;Life distribution;
Parametricfamily.
1. INTRODUCTION
Exponentialdistributions play a centralrole in analysesoflifetimeor survivaldata, in
partbecause oftheirconvenientstatisticaltheory,theirimportant'lack ofmemory'prop-
ertyand theirconstanthazard rates.In circumstances wheretheone-parameter familyof
exponentialdistributions broad,a numberofwiderfamiliessuch as the
is not sufficiently
gamma,Weibulland Gompertz-Makehamdistributions are in commonuse; thesefamilies
and theirusefulnessare describedby Cox & Oakes (1984, pp. 18, 19); more complete
treatments of each distributionare givenby Johnson,Kotz & Balakrishnan(1994).
By various methods,new parameterscan be introducedto expand familiesof distri-
butionsfor added flexibility or to constructcovariatemodels. Introductionof a scale
parameterleads to the acceleratedlifemodel,and takingpowersof the survivalfunction
introducesa parameterthatleads to the proportionalhazards model. For instance,the
familyofWeibulldistributions (Weibull,1951) containstheexponentialdistributions and
is constructedby takingpowersofexponentially distributedrandomvariables.The family
ofgammadistributions also containstheexponentialdistributions, and is constructedby
takingpowersof the Laplace transform.
In this paper, another general method of introducinga parameterinto a family
of distributionsis discussed. In particular,startingwith a survival functionF, the
familyof survivalfunctions
one-parameter
_(x;cx)= aoF(x)_ oF(x)
1 - F(x) F(x) + oF(x)
wherec = 1 -cx, is proposedand discussedin ? 2. Note that,when cx= 1, G = F.
The particularcase thatF is an exponentialdistribution yieldsa new two-parameter
familyofdistributions whichmay sometimesbe a competitorto theWeibulland gamma
families.This extendedfamilyis discussedin ? 3. The methodis also used to obtain a
three-parameter versionof the Weibullfamilyin ? 4.
All thecommonly-used methodsofintroducing an additionalparameterhave a stability
property: ifthemethodis appliedtwice,nothingnewis obtainedthesecondtimearound.
Thus, a power of an exponentialrandom variable has a Weibull distribution, but the
power of a Weibullrandomvariableis just anotherWeibullrandomvariable.Similarly,
if,in (1-1), a survivalfunctionof formG is introducedforF, then(1-1) yieldsnothing
new. This stabilitypropertyand the derivationof (1-1) is discussedin ? 5. Section 6
considersbivariateversions.
Thus
lim r(x; cc)= lim rF(x)/c, lim r(x; c) = lim rF(x).
It followsfrom(2-2) that
rF(x)/1c < r(x; c) < rF(x) (-o < x < 00, o 1>), (2.3a)
rF(x) < r(x; oc) < rF(x)/c (-oo < x < so, O < oc< 1), (2.3b)
F(x) < G(x,o) <F 1(x) (-oo < x < oo, 1), (2.4a)
P/'a(x)<, G(x,oc)<, F(x) (oo < x < so, O <Loc 1). (2.4b)
Note also from(2-2) thatr(x, oc)/rF(x) is increasingin x for cx> 1 and decreasingin x for
0< oc 1.
When F(O) = 0, the hazard rate r(0; cc) at the originbehaves quite differently than it
does fortheWeibullor gammadistributions; forboth thosefamilies,thedistribution can
be an exponential distribution,or r(0) = 0, or r(O) = so, so that r(O) is discontinuous in
the shape parameter.Such is not the case withthe familyhavinghazard rates(2-2), so
the familymay be usefulto 'finetune' the distribution F. However,in spiteof (2-3) and
(2 4), it need not be thatF and G are at all similar.
Note thatr(x; 1, l)= l, thatr(x; oc,l) is decreasingin x for0 <ca < 1, and thatr(x; oc,l)is
increasingin x foroc 1.
From (2-3) and (2-4) it followsthat
Fl/oar(x;oc,il)< (-soo< x< oo,oc1)
l< r(x;oc,l<F/oe (-xo < x< o, 0< o < 1),
K-,
G(x;oc
,) e -( il-o < x < oo,ocl, ), (3.2a)
e-xI .-G(x; cx,)<)e`x (-oo<x<oo,O<ocx 1). (3.2b)
withan increasing(decreasing)hazard rate are 'new better(worse)
Since distributions
thanused' (Barlow & Proschan,1975,p. 159),it followsthat,whenX has thedistribution
G, the conditionalsurvivalfunctionsatisfies
< pr(X > t) (t > 1),
pr(X>x+ IX>x)
mode(X)~~ {;-'
modeX) (x?2),
log(oc-1) (Lx
> 2).
ofg is givenby
The Laplace transform
E(e
sx)=
J 0 {OCyS/(1oy)2}
dy.
(3'5)
serieswhenI(j < 1. Then,theintegrands
Both (3 4) and (3 5) can be expressedas infinite
of (3 4) and (3 5) can be expanded in a power seriesand the resultintegratedtermby
termto yield
I
E(Xr)= - xrle-x , cie-ixdx= ra aJF(r) (3I6)
3-
var(x) 2 /1
0 20 40 60 80 100
This geometric-extreme
stableextensionof the Weibulldistribution
may sometimesbe a
competitorto themoreusual three-parameter
Weibulldistributionwithsurvivalfunction
F(x; ip) = exp -S(x - 6)1f (x > ; Fl,> O,- < 6< so).
If X has an exponentialdistributionwithparameter1, thenXl"/:/;has the survival
function(441). Similarly,if X has the survivalfunction(3.1) withF = 1, thenXl"f/1l
has
thesurvivalfunction(4 2). As a result,momentsof(4 2) can be obtainedfromnoninteger
momentsof (341). Thus, from(3 6), it followsthat,if X has the survivalfunction(4 2),
then
E(Xs) = A ( K'1).
F)sZO(/,) (1?C1 (4-3)
it can be shown that limfl, E(XS) = (s > 0). Of course, these are just the moments of
,-s
a randomvariabledegenerateat 1/l. For Sl= 1, Table 1 showsvalues of thefirstmoment
forvariouscombinationsof, and ox.
a 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 2 5 10 100
02 247 205 081 054 045 041 040 040 052 072 084 098
05 610 490 184 116 092 080 074 071 071 084 091 099
10 120 926 332 2.0 150 127 113 105 089 092 095 099
15 177 133 461 269 197 162 142 130 099 097 098 100
2 233 170 576 329 2 36 191 166 150 107 100 099 100
10 1014 611 175 878 568 422 341 290 152 116 108 101
20 1828 99 3 264 125 774 556 437 364 171 122 110 101
The densityand hazard rate of the distribution givenby (4-2) can be obtaineddirectly
from(241) and (2 2). In particular,thehazard rateis
r(x; oc,Fl,,B)= ,#(,lx)l- '/[1 - Cexp {-(x)l}].
This functionis graphedin Fig. 2. It can be verifiedusingelementarycalculus thatthis
hazard rate is increasingif oc 1, /3> 1 and decreasingif oc< 1, /3
? 1. If /3> 1, thenthe
hazard rateis initiallyincreasingand eventuallyincreasing,but theremaybe one interval
O- oc=5 , 0~~~~~~-ocl
,
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 5
x x
(c) ,B=2
6
r(x)
2
0 1 2 3
x
Fig.2. The hazard rate r: (a) withA=1, ,B=05, oa=0-05, 05, 1, 2, 5; (b) withA=1, ,B=1, a= 005, 05, 1,
2, 5; and (c) withA= 1, B= 2, a = 005,01
01, O5, 1, 2, 5.
whereit is decreasing.Similarly,
if,B< 1, thenthe hazard rate is initiallydecreasingand
eventuallydecreasing,but theremaybe one intervalwhereit is increasing;here,theslope
changesare subtleand hard to see graphically.
5. GEOMETRIC-EXTREME STABILITY
5 1. General
IfX1,X2,... is a sequenceofindependentidenticallydistributed randomvariableswith
distribution on {1, 2, ... }, then
in the family(1 1), and ifN has a geometricdistribution
min(X1,... , XN) and max(X1,... , XN) have distributionsin the family.To understand
why this propertymay be of interest,recall that extreme value distributionsare limiting
distributionsforextrema,and as such theyare sometimesusefulapproximations. In prac-
tice,a randomvariableof interestmay be the extremeof onlya finite,possiblyrandom,
numberN ofrandomvariables.WhenN has a geometricdistribution, therandomvariable
has a particularly nice stabilityproperty, not unlikethatof extremevalue distributions.
Suppose that N is independentof the Xi's witha geometric(p) distribution, that is,
pr(N = n) = (1 _p)n-lp (n = 1,2, .. .), and let
1- (1- p)F(x)
PROPOSITION 5 1. The parametric of theform(5 2) is geometric-
familyof distributions
minimum
stable.
Proof. If Y1,Y2,... is a sequence of independentrandom variableswith a common
distributionG given by (5 2) and if M is independentof the Yi's witha geometric(q)
distribution,then U = min(Y1,. . ., YM)has a distributionof the form(5 2) but withp
replacedby pq. To see this,write
Yi= min(Xil,... ., XiNj) (i = 1,2, .. .)
F and Ni all
wherethe Xij and Ni are all independent,all the Xij have the distribution
have a geometric(p) distribution.
Then
the Xij,
By re-indexing
U = min(Yl,. . ., YM)= min(Xl, X2,. . . , XN .NM)
+
show that
1G
p)F(x)
H(x):=P(VA x) =1-(l-p)F(x) (-cc<x<oo),
so that
(x) = p+(1-p)F(x) -
( oo<x<o0). (5'3)
familygivenby (5 3) is geometric-maximum
PROPOSITION 5-2. The parametric stable.
This resulthas a proofsimilarto thatof Proposition51.
The familiesgivenby (5-2) and (5-3) combinenicelyto forma singleparametricfamily
t=?(F)= {G(.; a), x>0},
whereG is givenby (11); in (5-2),0 <c = p < 1, and,in (5-3),oc= l/p> 1. Note that
G(x; 1) = F(x), so F E-; increasingin cX.
it is clear that G(.; oc)is stochastically
further,
PROPOSITION ! ofdistributions
5-3. Theparametricfamily (11) is geometric-
oftheform
extremestable.
to verifyclosureof fi undera kind of
Proof. To verifyProposition5 3, it is sufficient
composition, as follows. Suppose that H(x) = dG(x; cx)/{I- (1 - 4)G(x;cx)},where G(x; cx)
is givenby (5 3). Then
H(x) = 4aF(x)/{1 - (1 -4a)F(x)}.
This showsthatH E C, and,consequently, and geometric-
? has bothgeometric-maximum
minimumstability. DG
The proofof Proposition5 3 also showsthat,ifF is replacedby any otherdistribution
in C, then that distributionwill also generate 9.
A numberof factsconcerninggeometric-extreme stable familiesare evidentand may
be worth noting: the same propertieshold for geometric-minimum and geometric-
maximumstablefamilies.
(i) If .F and F2 are geometric-extremestable families,then E U .2 and F fln 2 are
geometric-extreme stablefamilies;the emptyset is vacuouslysuch a family.
(ii) Every distributionF determinesa geometric-extreme stable family Y(F). If
=
G E .(F), then F(G) ~FF). Thus the minimalgeometric-extreme stablefamiliesform
a partitionoftheset ofall distributions into a set ofequivalenceclasses.Here,a minimal
geometric-extreme stable familyis a familywhichis nonemptyand has no nonempty
geometric-extreme stablesubfamily.
(iii) If F and G differonlyby a scale (location) parameter,then (G) can be obtained
from(F) by a commonscale (location) change.
(iv) Suppose thatF E F impliesthatF(O) > 0, and defineF+ by
F, (x) = fl (xO)
{{F(x)}/{F(0)} (x > 0}.
If F is geometric-extremestable,then {F+ : F E .F } is geometric-extreme
stable.
(v) Let F be a familyof distribution
functions, and let
11 {G: G(x)
= = F0(x -b ) forsome F in Y }.
5 2. Whythegeometric distribution?
The geometric-extreme stabilitypropertyof ? = V(F) is ratherremarkable,and it
dependsupon the factthat a geometricsum of independentidenticallydistributedgeo-
metricrandomvariableshas a geometricdistribution. This partiallyexplainswhyrandom-
minimumstabilitycannot be expectedif the geometricdistribution is replacedby some
otherdistribution on {1, 2,.. . }. Thus,iftheabove developmentis repeated,e.g. withthe
assumptionthatN - 1 has a Poisson distribution, then ? would be replacedby a family
thatwould not be Poisson-extreme stable.
If F is a distributionfunctionand
00
or thejoint distribution
of
V, = max(Xl,... XN,), V2 = max (Yl,**, YN2).
It is straightforward
to verifythat(U1, U2) have thejoint survivalfunction
_ F(x,y) fpp1F1 (x) p1op+tF()1
G(x,y) =Poi (x,y ) F (x)+P11+ 2p+F-(y)' (6.1)
and (V1,V2)have thejoint distribution
function
Po Pi 2(Y)
H(x, Y) = FY lp0+ F1() +P11 + (6 2)
6 2. The specialcase N1 = N2
Suppose N1 = N2 = N (Pot= Plo = 0). With the notationPlt = p, Poo= 1 - p, G and H
are
) = pF(x,y)
G(x, Hxy-pF(x, y)
G(x,y)=- F(y) H(x, Y) 1 F(y)
Still,thesespecial cases of (6 1) and (6 2) do not combineto forma singleparametric
family, but theyare closed underminimaand maxima,respectively. That is, ifG* has the
formof G but withG in place of F, thenG* has the form(6 3) in termsof F, but witha
new parameterp. A similarcommentapplies to H.
6 3. Underlyingcopulas
The bivariatedistributionF can be writtenin theformF(x, y)= K(Ft(x), F2(y)),where
withuniformmarginals.In thiscontext,K is called a copula
K is a bivariatedistribution
or dependencefunctionof F (Genest,Ghoudi & Rivest,1995). The functionK* defined
by
K*(u, v)= u + v- 1 + K(1 - u, 1 - v)=K(1 - u, 1 - v)
is sometimescalledthedual ofK; itis easilycheckedthatK* is also a bivariatedistribution
withuniformmarginalsand, moreover,F(x, y) = K*(Fi(x), F2(y)).
G definedby (61) and let K be the copula of F.
Let C be a copula of the distribution
Straightforward calculationsshow thatthe dual C* of C, forwhich
G(x,y)= C*(Gl(x), G2(y)),
is givenby
K(u/(p1+ + po+ u), V/(p+1 + p+ov))
v) 1- 1up10v)
C*(u,~~ n K(u/(n1+ +Pn0+u)v/(Pn+1i+0)(t
+n
C*(x, Y) = xy
This is the copula of Ali, Mikhail & Haq (1978), exceptthat theyhave a parameterin
place ofp thatcan take any value in the interval[-1, 1]. For anotherderivationof this
copula see Marshall& Olkin (1988).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
AlbertW. Marshall was supportedin part by the National Science Foundation and
by the Natural Science and EngineeringResearch Council of Canada. Ingram Olkin
was supportedin part by the National Science Foundation.The graphsin thispaper as
well as othernumericalresultswereobtainedforus by JianAn, Keith Greggand Eddie
Hak-singIp; forthisworkwe are indeedgrateful.
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[ReceivedDecember1994.RevisedOctober1996]