Professional Documents
Culture Documents
People and Things On The Move
People and Things On The Move
People and Things On The Move
303
2025
304
People and Things on the Move
1:29 pm I decided to walk the three kilometers to the hydrofoil after picking up my lug-
gage at the hotel (kudos to Mid-Atlantic Air). It was a pleasant stroll, although I
must report that a cyclist ran a traffic light and could have injured me. We still
need to beef up enforcement of bicycling regulations. The hydrofoil service,
which runs every 7 minutes, whisked me over to Logan airport in ten minutes.
The ocean air was refreshing.
1:45 pm I was back on Mid-Atlantic Air, en route to Dulles. I wrapped up this report
onboard the plane.
Source: Testimony by Henry Walker, Inspector, U.S. Department of Transportation, be-
fore the Subcommittee on Transportation and Travel, U.S. House of Representa-
tives, June 3, 2024.
305
2025
The move to efficiency
Item 1990 2025
Gas costs, per liter $0.39 $1.02
Average fuel economy 11 kpl 18 kpl
Gas, kilometers per dollar 28 18
Kilometers per electric charge 120 360
Electric, kilometers per dollar n/a 28
Hydrogen, kilometers per dollar n/a 10
Availability (% of total)
Gas stations 100% 43%
Electric charge stations 0% 55%
Hydrogen stations 0% 2%
306
People and Things on the Move
307
2025
gies that increased energy and travel efficiency. For example, electric vehicle
sales surged in 2003, and maglev projects starved for funds found investors.
Public-private cooperation on upgrading the transportation infrastructure and
integrating it with the information infrastructure, enabled the United States to
close the gap quickly and move ahead. The U.S. situation is described next in
a detailed case study.
308
People and Things on the Move
the competitiveness of U.S. businesses. Businesses that need to get their prod-
ucts to market quickly have been willing to invest in upgrading the transporta-
tion infrastructure and in new transportation technologies.
Many of the advanced technologies that have improved personal and
business travel were pioneered by freight companies. They have long been
under strong competitive pressures and have been willing to experiment with
the latest technologies to gain an edge. And it is still true today that moving
freight is more profitable than moving people. The first maglev line built in the
United States, for example, was funded by a consortium of state and local
governments in tandem with Federal Express and local business leaders.
309
2025
The rising costs in using the transportation infrastructure have been
compensated for by reduced costs elsewhere. The move to leasing rather than
purchasing vehicles, longer-lived vehicles, fuel efficiency improvements, and
the more durable infrastructures have reduced costs as well.
310
People and Things on the Move
The overseas traveler today takes advantage of chronobiology to neu-
tralize jet lag. A pill or skin patch adjusts the traveler’s circadian rhythms by
influencing their reaction to light.
The commercial airline industry has stabilized over the last 35 years.
Since 2004, there have been the Big Three airlines in the United States. They
are supplemented by a growing network of regional airlines that typically
serve a dozen or so cities. They compete with overseas carriers as well, as the
airline market has truly globalized. ECAir, for example, has a significant chunk
of the United States overseas travel market.
A key reason for the success of ECAir in the United States was that it
was the first to grasp the trend in air travel from being almost exclusively
business to combining business and pleasure. A scaled-down version of the
luxury cruise model is adopted for upscale, supersonic air travel. AST planes
with average speeds over Mach 2 came on-line around 2015. ASTs equipped
with noise cancellation technology reduced noise problems from sonic booms.
The cost of building them has come down, making the cost-competitive with
subsonic crafts.
Most airplane travel today is better than the first-class of the past, with
plenty of leg room, a wide selection of videos, and good food. Overworked
and harried flight attendants are a relic as well. With the addition of robotic
assistants, attendants deliver great service today.
The transoceanic airlines today provide computer links to unlimited
entertainment and recreation services. Of course, the personal computer func-
tion enables one to work and have the results transmitted to the home or
office by digital satellite.
Trip times have been reduced by speeding up the loading and unload-
ing of passengers and luggage. Today’s supersonic craft carry twice as many
passengers at three times the speed of sound with far higher fuel efficiency
than the Concorde of fifty years ago.
A hypersonic (five times the speed of sound) plane was developed by
the International Space Agency in 2017. The International Hypersonic Craft
Consortium (IHCC), formed in 2019, is laying plans to commercialize these
311
2025
craft by the next decade. They can take off and land on commercial runways,
exit and reenter the atmosphere en route. It will take under two hours to fly
from the United States to Europe.
Twenty-one floating airports worldwide support the increased air travel
of the last 35 years. They are a cost-effective solution to noise and land scar-
city problems, at least for coastal airports.
312
People and Things on the Move
The polycentric city phenomena has increased commuting between
suburbs rather than suburb to central city. Better integration of transportation
systems has cut the 2 billion worker hours per year lost to traffic jams in the
1990s by 75%. There has not been a solution to the traffic problem, but con-
tinuous adjustments are steadily reducing bottlenecks.
The tilt-rotor aircraft and helicopter networks that are strong in Japan
have not been equaled here. Japan has an impressive infrastructure of over
3,000 heliports, enabling it to deploy a wide network of short takeoffs and
landings (STOLs), vertical takeoffs and landings (VTOLs), tilt rotors (combin-
ing vertical lift features of helicopters and the high forward speed of airplanes),
for 160- to 800-kilometer trips.
313
2025
(HOV) lanes were converted into electric automatic pilot lanes. Battery im-
provements have improved the range of electric cars from 120 to about 500
kilometers per charge.
Second, was the proliferation of recharging stations built by utilities
eager for new markets. People could rely on being able to charge up just
about anywhere. The on-the-road charge takes about 10 to 15 minutes. The
vehicles are almost always plugged in at home and charged more slowly
overnight.
Third, was the relaxation of antitrust regulation to enable old Big Three
automakers to form the Advanced Battery Consortium in the late 1980s and
the United States Council for Automotive Research in 1992 to share informa-
tion and costs in the development of new automotive technologies. Today,
two of the 20th century’s Big Three are left, but they have nine autonomous
divisions. Global alliances have virtually erased all but style distinctions be-
tween U.S.- and foreign-made vehicles anyway.
Hybrids, either on the guidebeam or combined with gas, methanol, or
liquefied natural gas, are more efficient than their gasoline predecessors. But
experiments with the gasoline part of the hybrid engines are still continuing.
Two-stroke engines and direct-injection diesels have become conventional.
Stirling engines are becoming popular for larger vehicles. Ceramic low-heat
rejection engines caught on with the public about 2012 as their prices came
down sharply.
Non-hybrid-gasoline vehicles
Improvements in existing transportation energy technologies such as the gasoline-powered
combustion engine extended their life and delayed the introduction of alternatives. The fuel
economy of gasoline engines crept up and kept competitors at bay years after many experts
had predicted their demise. They were able to meet the 15 kilometers per liter requirements
mandated by Congress in 1998. California pioneered in these efforts with some success by
1999. Electric vehicles began to catch on there and inspired copycat successes in other states
and the country. Gasoline vehicles were still in production, but in 2011, vehicles relying solely
on gasoline for fuel were banned nationwide.
The growth in the number of vehicles has outpaced gains in fuel effi-
ciency. However, in the year 2002, the number of automobiles worldwide
crossed the half-billion mark. Ten years later in 2012, the overall worldwide
number of vehicles, including trucks, buses, and motorcycles, surpassed one
billion. The impressive gains in fuel efficiency are being offset by the numbers
of vehicles. World vehicle fuel use is up 10% from 2000.
314
People and Things on the Move
Learning to drive...anything
Virtual reality is the primary tool for teaching one how to control all forms of transportation—
from driving a car to piloting a ship or plane. Licensing agencies credit virtual reality training
for helping to reduce accidents across the board.
315
2025
Instantaneous access to the nearest traffic control center allows an op-
erator to report an accident or erratic driving behavior. Advanced systems
automatically detect lane crossings and either monitor or phone the driver to
see whether there is a problem.
Accidents are uncommon if not rare. Drunk driving, for example, has
been practically eliminated by standard-equipment sobriety analyzers in ev-
ery vehicle. IVHS also keep a constant lookout for wildlife. Road kills are
uncommon today.
Traffic law enforcement is less necessary and practically invisible. So
much of transportation is automatic, it’s hard to break the law. Much of the
police force that used to handle traffic is now free to cope with more serious
crimes.
316
People and Things on the Move
The United States has been following the EC’s lead with maglev. EC
political leaders decided at the turn of the century that further increases in
automobile travel would not be tenable in a sustainable society. They made a
strong financial commitment to build maglev systems to connect major met-
ropolitan areas across the continent. In addition, business practices in the EC
demand efficient continental travel.
The maglev systems are clean, comfortable, safe, and fast. The average
speed is close to 500 kilometers per hour. The Japanese also have an exten-
sive maglev system. But the EC consortium’s choice of construction materials,
such as superconducting materials and advanced ceramics, and recent expe-
rience with macroengineering projects, such as the automated subway sys-
tem in Paris, give it the edge over the Japanese network.
317
2025
appetite of consumers and business for even faster transportation. It is now
almost unheard of for the delivery of goods anywhere in the United States to
take more than three days. In addition, cargo transport is more reliable, as bar
codes and taggants (chemical identifiers in or on the item) keep accurate track
of goods in transit.
318
People and Things on the Move
Air cushion vehicles serve a niche market, linking long-range land, sea,
and air systems. Hovercraft and hydrofoils provide links between airports, for
example. They are used for water-surrounded ones because they easily bridge
the land-sea interface. They are also useful as high-speed commuting ferries,
running as fast as 200 kilometers per hour in trips over eight kilometers.
319
2025
320
People and Things on the Move
Bicycles are ubiquitous, as the Javanese do not have many private cars.
Since gas prices shot up around 2011, more and more people use bicycles in
combination with the downtown people mover (aeromovel) and the interur-
ban trains. The transportation options in Indonesia today are outlined in this
case study.
There is plenty of direct air service to Java, particularly from Australia,
Japan, Singapore, and North America. Flights within Indonesia are still expen-
sive. High fuel costs make them so. Garuda, the national airline as yet has
only three of the more efficient turbopropfan airliners. They will probably not
soon join the new Hypersonic Craft Consortium for obvious economic rea-
sons. Those planes will certainly fly to Jakarta anyway, perhaps in 7 or 10
years, as JAL and the U.S. carriers will use them on their Pan Asian routes. The
table below outlines the options for overseas access to Indonesia today.
Japan Cheap supersonic flights to Japan are available from eight cities in the United
States. One can also try flying to Narita Airport and then catching one of the
four subsonic flights to Jakarta that are scheduled daily. This saves hours.
Singapore There is fast and efficient superhydrofoil service from Singapore. Five trips are
made daily over the 1,000 km at 200 km per hour. This is more than four time
the speed of the first hydrofoils to travel this route in the 1990s. Before that,
the diesel powered ships took 36 hours.
The adventurous traveler shouldn't miss a chance to combine the old and the
new. One can call at the harbor in Singapore and try to find a yacht or fishing
boat that is crossing to Sumatra, ideally to Palembang. From there, see Sumatra,
below.
Sumatra The best bet is the hourly hydrofoil to Jakarta from Telekbetung running from
0500 to 2300. Telekbetung is served by the bullet train that crosses Sumatra
longways. Or one may take various modes of transport on the Trans-Sumatra
Highway, one of the country's best. (Plans to build a maglev on Sumatra are
still just plans).
Two plans seven years ago were rejected that would have made travel be-
tween Sumatra and Java much easier. There was talk of a tunnel or bridge to
cross the 37 miles. In the days of Suharto Sr., one or the other might have
been accomplished. However, seismic instability is still a problem for mass-
scale underwater tunnels, and a dynamic bridge crossing would have cost
hundreds of billions of Rupiah.
United States The Supersonic makes it in 4.5 hours from San Francisco or Los Angeles,
going March 3. But supersonic tickets to Indonesia are nearly twice the cost
of subsonic tickets. It's a seller's market, there still aren't enough flights for all
the business trade. Other options include conventional jet service.
Source: Excerpted from A Travel Guide to Indonesia, Department of
Tourism, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2025.
321
2025
Cargo ships modernize and add just-in-time
Cargo vessels range from the older, conventional-hulled craft to high-
speed hovercraft and hydrocraft. The latter are rigidly scheduled elements of
the just-in-time manufacturing and raw materials scene in Southeast Asia—
their cargos cannot be delayed in any way. They are so closely scheduled and
tracked that they make continuous speed adjustments as they travel so as to
reach port on a precise schedule.
Hitchhiking lives on
Hitchhiking is still safe on Java. Rides are not necessarily frequent and most likely will be small
grocers’ trucks and other commercial vehicles. Most Javanese, outside the wealthy sectors of
Jakarta and its suburbs, do not have their own vehicles.
A more ancient tradition, the use of becaks and dokars are all but gone.
Becaks are backwards rickshaws; the driver pedals to drive the vehicle from behind.
Dokars are tiny, ornate donkey carts. They might be found on some of the smaller
islands or within the sprawling tourist complexes on Bali, but not in Java or Sumatra.
322
People and Things on the Move
323
2025
Trans-Java line, all other rail service in Java and the rest of Indonesia is
nonmaglev. Those other trains are no different from and often worse than train
service in the West 40 years ago.
The October 2018 earthquake wrecked part of the Trans-Java maglev
line, then brand-new. This led to reconfiguration of the guideway and its sup-
ports. The piers and the guideway in the fault zone have been rebuilt as dy-
namic structures, with continuous adjustments made for vibration, weight
stress, and future earthquakes. Prequake monitoring provides a warning a few
hours before the quake, enough time to shut down the line if necessary. Of
course, Indonesian earthquake prediction is no more accurate, and probably
less so, than at San Andreas or Central Honshu. There is no program of pre-
vention in Indonesia as there is in Japan and the western United States.
324
People and Things on the Move
Critical Developments, 1990-2025
325
2025
Unrealized Hopes and Fears
326