David A. Rosenberg: in This Issue

David A.
Rosenberg February 28, 2017

Chief Economist & Strategist Economic Commentary
research@gluskinsheff.com
Twitter: @GluskinSheffInc
MARKET MUSINGS & DATA DECIPHERING
IN THIS ISSUE
While you were sleeping
x The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now increased for 12 straight
days running, something that has not happened since Reagan was still
in office
Are surveys ever going to converge with activity data?
x Another day, another conflict between what the surveys and activity
data are saying
Click to read on …
This report is prepared for the exclusive use of the individual Gluskin Sheff Research subscriber to whom it was delivered.
Sharing, redistributing, retransmitting or disclosing this report in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the
express written consent of Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. is a violation of our Terms of Use and will be prosecuted to the
fullest extent permitted by law. Page 1 of 11
February 28, 2017 — BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

Well, you cannot keep a good market down, I guess.
Well, you cannot keep a
good market down, I guess
For two straight sessions, softness in U.S. equity markets carried into
early trading, only for losses to be pared through the day before giving
way to a modest rally that left stocks just barely in the green.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has now increased for 12 straight The Dow has now increased
days running, something that has not happened since Reagan was still for 12 straight days
in office — and markets are looking to match that 13-day stretch to running, something that
January 20, 1987 today. has not happened since
Reagan was still in office
This is looking like a real possibility so far, with the Dow futures
marginally in the plus column so far in the early going — note, though,
that the S&P 500 futures are in the red today and the U.S. equity market
was dealt a blow by the big miss on sales and earnings from Target (not
a Dow constituent), as well as dour guidance for the coming year.
Looking back at the streak so far, there are interesting things to

highlight.
First, the gains have not exactly been evenly distributed across the 30
stocks in the price-weighted index. Of the 783.10 point increase in the
Dow over the last 12 trading days, half of the increase can be attributed
to just six stocks and two-thirds of the gain comes from just 10 (and one
Dow stock has even declined over the run).
CHART 1: DJIA STOCKS NOT CONTRIBUTING EQUALLY OVER STREAK

United States
(percent contribution of change in Dow Jones Industrial Average)
14
12
10
-2
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase
P&G
3M
Visa
Verizon
GE
Boeing
Home Depot
Caterpillar
Nike
Cisco Systems
Microsoft
Travelers
United Technologies
Pfizer
Chevron
Intel
DuPont
IBM
American Express
Goldman Sachs
UnitedHealth
Apple
Wal-Mart
McDonald's
Merck & Company

Disney
Exxon Mobil
Coca-Cola
Source: Bloomberg, Gluskin Sheff
And gains have not exactly been robust, especially over the last week. Gains have not exactly been
Four of the 12 daily increases have been by less than 0.1%, and these robust, especially over the
have all come over the last seven days (including the last two). last week
CHART 2: NOT EXACTLY SEEING ROBUST GAINS

United States
(point change in DJIA)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
23-Feb-17
09-Feb-17
10-Feb-17
13-Feb-17
14-Feb-17
15-Feb-17
16-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
21-Feb-17
22-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
27-Feb-17
And on top of being a marginal increase yesterday (the Dow rose just
15.68 points, or 0.08%), the breadth was weak with just 11 of the Dow’s
30 stocks actually increasing. That’s the worst of the streak and the
second time in the last four sessions that we have seen more stocks in
the index decline than advance.
CHART 3: DJIA STREAK RUNNING LOW ON BREADTH

United States
(percent of DJIA stocks posting an increase)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10-Feb-17
09-Feb-17
13-Feb-17
14-Feb-17
15-Feb-17
16-Feb-17
17-Feb-17
21-Feb-17
22-Feb-17
23-Feb-17
24-Feb-17
27-Feb-17
All of this is to say that while the streak has managed to continue, it has
been wobbling.
The modest equity market momentum that we saw late in yesterday’s

North American trading day did not really carry into the overnight
session, with Asian stocks mixed.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched up 0.1%, the Shanghai stock index rose 0.4%
and Korea’s KOSPI was up 0.3%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was
clocked for a 0.8% decline and losses were also recorded in India (-
0.2%), Singapore (-0.4%) and Taiwan (-0.2%). All in, the MSCI Asia
excluding Japan index was off 0.1%.
European stock markets have seen similarly muted moves in aggregate,

with the broad Euro STOXX 600 off 0.1%, though the regional indexes
are mixed — stocks in Germany (-0.3%) and France (-0.1%) are both
down so far today, but we are seeing gains in Spain (+0.8%) and Italy
(+0.3%), with the U.K. market flat.
Bond markets are selling off modestly for the most part, with European
10-year sovereign yields up one to three basis points.
On this side of the Atlantic, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has come
down by a basis point, while the shorter duration bonds are unchanged,
so the bulk of yesterday’s rise in yields across the curve remains intact.
The bond selloff yesterday was triggered by comments from President The bond selloff yesterday
Trump that the U.S. is “going to start spending on infrastructure big”. was triggered by comments
Evidently, this was enough for some market participants to hedge that from President Trump
fiscal stimulus could lead to a Fed policymakers to move in March (fed
funds futures implied probability for a hike in March moved up to 50%
from 40% on Friday).
Even with that five basis point bounce yesterday, though, the 10-year T-
note yield managed to only recoup half of its decline from the prior week
and it continues to trade in a fairly tight range of 2.3% to 2.5%.
Ultimately, this tug-of-war between the bond bulls and bears will come
down to who has the call right on inflation.
But when you see headlines from JD Power like Despite Record
Incentives, Auto Sales Expected to Show Only Modest Gain and Wal-
Mart Launches New Front in U.S. Price War, Targets Aldi in Grocery Aisle
(as per Reuters) it is hard to believe we could be in for a sustained
inflationary environment.
Watch 2.3% on the 10-year T-note yield — this level was approached on Watch 2.3% on the 10-year
Friday (2.31%) but failed the test. If Trump disappoints on the reflation T-note yield
trade tonight we could potentially see a re-test of this level.
We have a busy day ahead of us, with a glut of data on the docket
including some top-tier data releases. Most prominent is the second cut
of Q4 2016 real GDP growth for the U.S., which is expected to show a
modestly better rate than the advance estimate of a 1.9% annualized
gain (consensus looking for a revision to 2.1%).
The advance reports for January’s international trade (the goods deficit
is expected to widen to $66.0 billion) and wholesale & retail inventories
(both expected to rise in the month) is also due out ahead of market
open — this preliminary read on the data can significantly alter forecasts
for Q1 growth (the current consensus is a +2.1% annual rate).
Lower-tier reports on consumer confidence (The Conference Board’s

version is expected to follow the University of Michigan’s lower for
February), home prices, and regional manufacturing (the Richmond Fed
and Chicago PMI) are also due out later in the morning.
We also see three regional Fed presidents making their rounds on the
speaking circuit later in the afternoon (the Philly Fed’s Patrick Harker,
James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed, and San Francisco Fed president
John Williams; only Harker carries a vote on the FOMC this year).
But all of this simply serves as an appetizer for the big event of the day, Later this evening Donald
which takes place in Washington this evening when Donald Trump is Trump is slated to address
slated to address a joint session of Congressional lawmakers. a joint session of
Congressional lawmakers
Now, the speech is not technically being considered a “State of the
Union” address since it falls in the first year of Trump’s term — the
practice since Kennedy has been that a president should hold office for
a year before offering up his assessment of the State of the Union.
So, instead reflecting back on the past year, the expectation is that Markets are hoping there
Trump will use the speech to layout his Administration’s goals for the will be more tangible
coming year, with markets hoping there will be more tangible discussions of the policy
discussions of the policy agenda — in particular, a discussion of the agenda
aspects of the promised “phenomenal” tax plan.
As per White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer:
The theme will be the renewal of the American spirit. The address
will particularly focus on public safety including defense, increased
border security, taking care of veterans, and then economic
opportunity including education, job training, healthcare reform,
jobs and tax and regulatory reform.
Of course, there is always the question as to whether or not the

President will stick to the script, so tonight’s presentation in prime time
is really anything but a riskless event.
And speaking of the President addressing Congress, a critical date worth

circling on the calendar is March 15th. This is the latest date that the
self-proclaimed King of Debt can go cap in hand to Congress for an

increase in the debt ceiling (the budget deal brokered in November
2015 suspended the debt limit until this date).
The Treasury Department can use its “extraordinary measures” to avoid

defaulting on the government’s obligations until mid-summer, but given
that the Treasury is already burning through up to $70 billion per month
just to finance the status quo, this is not an issue that is going to
disappear (one way or another) anytime soon.
ARE SURVEYS EVER GOING TO CONVERGE WITH ACTIVITY DATA?

Another day, another conflict between what the surveys and activity data Another day, another
are saying. conflict between what the
surveys and activity data
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s index of general are saying
business activity rose for the fifth straight month, moving up to +24.5 in
February from +22.1 in January, +17.7 in December, +12.5 in
November and +0.6 in October. February’s improvement came against
consensus views for a moderation to +19.4 and represents the best
reading since April 2006.
CHART 4: DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX

United States
(diffusion index; >0 denotes expansion)
Shaded region represents period of U.S. recession

Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff
The details of the report were upbeat as well, with the ISM-adjusted The details of the report
index rising to 54.9 from 52.7 in January, 50.3 in December and a were upbeat as well
contractionary 49.8 in November — this is the best level for the gauge of
activity in the energy-heavy Dallas Fed District since October 2014 (so,
before the oil price was in complete freefall).
The four regional Fed measures in hand so far (the Richmond Fed’s
gauge is due today, with expectations once again looking for a
moderation) are uniformly pointing to a material improvement in the

February ISM manufacturing index, which should be indicative of
strengthening momentum in the American factory sector.
TABLE 1: REGIONAL FED MANUFACTURING SURVEYS

United States
Index ISM-adjusted
Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
Dallas 17.7 22.1 24.5 50.3 52.7 54.9
Kansas City 9.0 9.0 14.0 50.7 54.3 56.3
New York 7.6 6.5 18.7 48.5 50.9 54.4
Philadelphia 19.7 23.6 43.3 53.6 55.5 55.6
Richmond 8.0 12.0 55.7 55.6
Average 12.4 14.6 25.1 51.8 53.8 55.3
Modelled ISM - - - 55.0 56.8

ISM - - - 54.5 56.0 -
Notably, though, we have yet to see this improvement really spillover We have yet to see this
into the activity data, something that was once again evident yesterday. improvement really
spillover into the activity
The advance report on durable goods manufacturing in January showed data
that overall shipments of American-made goods with a life expectancy of
at least three years declined 0.1% MoM.
Moreover, shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods Shipments of core capital
excluding aircraft; this feeds into the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ goods recorded an
estimate of business equipment investment) recorded a comparatively unexpected 0.6% drop
larger, and unexpected, 0.6% drop (consensus was for a 0.2% increase
here to start 2017).
And new orders for this key grouping of goods (which serve as a proxy of
future business investment) unexpectedly dropped 0.4% MoM in
January as well. Given that consensus was looking for a 0.5% increase,
this was a fairly sizable miss and not a resounding vote of confidence for
capex maintaining the momentum established at the end of last year.
But an important note about that strength at the end of 2016 is that it
will in fact still pay dividends to the current quarter.
The gain in core capital goods shipments in December was revised up to

+1.6% MoM from +1.0% previously, while the complementary orders
data for the group was revised up to 1.1% from +0.7%.
In both cases, the strong handoff from Q4 still leaves Q1 tracking a

quarterly improvement even with the weak start to 2017 — January’s
level of shipments is up at a 2.8% annualized rate versus the Q4

average; the size of order books for core capital goods to kick off 2017
is up by an annualized 3.7% versus the Q4 average.
So, business investment is looking like it will add to growth in Q1, just at Business investment is
a lesser-than-previously anticipated rate and definitely not at a pace looking like it will add to
consistent with what we are seeing in various factory surveys. growth in Q1, just at a
lesser-than-previously
Now, a point worth highlighting is that the diffusion indexes for the anticipated rate
manufacturing sector are still rising, which suggests there is still time for
a potential catch up in activity to take place over the coming months.
This comes is contrast to the more ominous signs from the loss of This comes is contrast to
momentum in consumer confidence measures — which are being the more ominous signs
coupled with moderation in the indicators tied to American households. from the loss of momentum
in consumer confidence
For example, the University of Michigan’s auto buying conditions index measures
moved lower in February (down to 145 from 147 in January and 148 a
year ago) and expectations are for Wednesday’s U.S. auto sales report
to show a similar loss of momentum — and this in spite of dealer
incentives remaining at record levels as per J.D. Power.
CHART 5: VEHICLE BUYING CONDITIONS & UNIT AUTO SALES

United States
(UMich vehicle buying conditions index: dark green line, left axis, index)
(unit auto sales: light green line, right axis, millions, six-month lead)
Shaded regions represent periods of U.S. recession

As well, just as the University of Michigan’s gauge on homebuying ticked

lower (151 in February from 156 in the previous month and 158 in the
same month last year), the National Association of Realtors’ pending
home sales index unexpectedly fell 2.8% MoM January to a one-year low
of 106.4 in January.
This is a disappointing read (expectations were for a 0.6% increase;

December’s previously reported 1.6% bounce was cut in half as well
adding to the disappointment), though it still means that under contract-
but-not-closed existing home sales were in the 5.3 million to 5.9 million
annualized unit range (the index is constructed such that it is set to 100
for 2001, a year in which existing-home sales fell within the range of 5.0
to 5.5 million, so we were 6.4% above this range in January).
CHART 6: PENDING & ACTUAL EXISTING HOME SALES

United States
(pending home sales: dark green line, left axis, index)
(existing home sales: light green line, right axis, millions)
130 7.5
Pending home sales (LHS)
Existing home sales (RHS) 7.0
120
6.5
110 6.0
5.5
100
5.0
90 4.5
4.0
80
3.5
70 3.0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Shaded regions represent periods of U.S. recession
In other words, it is effectively pointing to more of the same in terms of It is effectively pointing to
resale housing activity over the next few months. more of the same in terms
of resale housing activity
But look at what that chart above shows: there has been a significant over the next few months
gap between the pending home sales index and actual resale activity
throughout this cycle; while resale activity has been grinding higher, the
recent weakening the pending home sales has served to close this gap
(existing home sales were 5.69 million in January, which is effectively
what the 106.4 reading would imply).
This is a scenario that we could see play out in the manufacturing

sector, especially in the context of U.S. dollar strength and potential for
trade barriers impinging on export growth — the diffusion indexes move
lower to converge with the activity data rather than the other way
around.
OVERVIEW PERSONAL Our investment

interests are directly
$8.7 aligned with those of
our clients, as
Gluskin Sheff’s
management and
177 employees are
collectively among
the largest clients of
the Firm.
LEADING
$1 million invested in our
ALIGNED flagship GS+A Premium
Income Portfolio in 2001
(its inception date) would
have grown to
approximately $6.0
million2 on December 31,
INNOVATIVE 2016 versus $2.9 million
for the S&P/TSX Total
Return Index3 over the
same period.
For further information, please

contact:
research@gluskinsheff.com
Notes:
1. Past returns are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Rates of return are those of the composite of segregated Premium Income portfolios and are presented net of
fees and expenses and assume reinvestment of all income. Portfolios with significant client restrictions which would potentially achieve returns that are not reflective of the
manager’s portfolio returns are excluded from the composite. Returns of the pooled fund versions of the GS+A Premium Income portfolio are not included in the composite.
2. Investment amounts are presented to reflect the actual return of the composite of segregated Premium Income portfolios and are presented net of fees and expenses.
3. The S&P/TSX Total Return Index calculation is based on the securities included in the S&P/TSX Composite and includes dividends and rights distributions. This index includes
only Canadian securities.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Copyright 2015 Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc. (“Gluskin Sheff “). All rights In accordance with rules established by the U.K. Financial Services Authority,
reserved. macroeconomic analysis is considered investment research.
This report may provide information, commentary and discussion of issues Materials prepared by Gluskin Sheff research personnel are based on public
relating to the state of the economy and the capital markets. All opinions, information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been
projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in
date of the report and are subject to change without notice. Gluskin Sheff is other business areas of Gluskin Sheff.
under no obligation to update this report and readers should therefore
assume that Gluskin Sheff will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion To the extent this report discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not
contained in this report. been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion
or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of
The content of this report is provided for discussion purposes only. Any law relating to the subject matter of this report. Gluskin Sheff research
forward looking statements or forecasts included in the content are based personnel’s knowledge of legal proceedings in which any Gluskin Sheff
on assumptions derived from historical results and trends. Actual results entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs,
may vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be defendants, co — defendants or co — plaintiffs with or involving companies
placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment mentioned in this report is based on public information. Facts and views
decision, and no investment decisions should be made based on the presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not
content of this report. been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to,
professionals in other business areas of Gluskin Sheff in connection with
This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings.
does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial
situation and particular needs of any specific person. Under no The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to Gluskin
circumstances does any information represent a recommendation to buy or Sheff and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and Gluskin
sell securities or any other asset, or otherwise constitute investment advice. Sheff does not guarantee its accuracy. This report may contain links to third
Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of — party websites. Gluskin Sheff is not responsible for the content of any
investing in specific securities or financial instruments and implementing third — party website or any linked content contained in a third — party
investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. website. Content contained on such third — party websites is not part of this
report and is not incorporated by reference into this report. The inclusion of
Gluskin Sheff may own, buy, or sell, on behalf of its clients, securities of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with
issuers that may be discussed in or impacted by this report. As a result, Gluskin Sheff.
readers should be aware that Gluskin Sheff may have a conflict of interest
that could affect the objectivity of this report. Gluskin Sheff portfolio Gluskin Sheff reports are distributed simultaneously to internal and client
managers may hold different views from those expressed in this report and websites and other portals by Gluskin Sheff and are not publicly available
they are not obligated to follow the investments or strategies recommended materials. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited.
by this report.
TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF USE
This report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the
exercise of their own judgment and readers are encouraged to seek Your receipt and use of this report is governed by the Terms and Conditions
independent, third-party research on any companies discussed or impacted of Use which may be viewed at
by this report. research.gluskinsheff.com/epaper/helpandsupport.aspx?subpage=TermsO
fUse
Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this report are not
insured and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository This report is prepared for the exclusive use of Gluskin Sheff clients,
institution. Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve subscribers to this report and other individuals who Gluskin Sheff has
numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default determined should receive this report. This report may not be redistributed,
risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner,
suitable for all investors. In some cases, securities and other financial without the express written consent of Gluskin Sheff.
instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about
YOU AGREE YOU ARE USING THIS REPORT AND THE GLUSKIN SHEFF
the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be
SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES AT YOUR OWN RISK AND LIABILITY. NEITHER
difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities
GLUSKIN SHEFF, NOR ANY DIRECTOR, OFFICER, EMPLOYEE OR AGENT OF
and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that the price or
GLUSKIN SHEFF, ACCEPTS ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER FOR ANY DIRECT,
value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases,
INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, MORAL, INCIDENTAL, COLLATERAL OR SPECIAL
investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not
DAMAGES OR LOSSES OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION,
necessarily a guide to future performance.
THOSE DAMAGES ARISING FROM ANY DECISION MADE OR ACTION TAKEN
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or BY YOU IN RELIANCE ON THE CONTENT OF THIS REPORT, OR THOSE
income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. DAMAGES RESULTING FROM LOSS OF USE, DATA OR PROFITS, WHETHER
Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency FROM THE USE OF OR INABILITY TO USE ANY CONTENT OR SOFTWARE
risk. OBTAINED FROM THIRD PARTIES REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ACCESS TO THE
CONTENT, OR ANY OTHER CAUSE, EVEN IF GLUSKIN SHEFF IS ADVISED OF
Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES OR LOSSES AND EVEN IF CAUSED BY
herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to ANY ACT, OMISSION OR NEGLIGENCE OF GLUSKIN SHEFF OR ITS
provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their DIRECTORS, OFFICERS, EMPLOYEES OR AGENTS AND EVEN IF ANY OF
particular circumstances from an independent tax professional. THEM HAS BEEN APPRISED OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUCH DAMAGES
OCCURRING.
Individuals identified as economists in this report do not function as
research analysts. Under U.S. law, reports prepared by them are not If you have received this report in error, or no longer wish to receive this
research reports under applicable U.S. rules and regulations. report, you may ask to have your contact information removed from our
distribution list by emailing research@gluskinsheff.com.
Page 11 of 11

David A. Rosenberg: in This Issue

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

David A. Rosenberg: in This Issue

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

David A.

Rosenberg February 28, 2017

MARKET MUSINGS & DATA DECIPHERING

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

Looking back at the streak so far, there are interesting things to

CHART 1: DJIA STOCKS NOT CONTRIBUTING EQUALLY OVER STREAK

Merck & Company

Source: Bloomberg, Gluskin Sheff

CHART 2: NOT EXACTLY SEEING ROBUST GAINS

Source: Bloomberg, Gluskin Sheff

CHART 3: DJIA STREAK RUNNING LOW ON BREADTH

Source: Bloomberg, Gluskin Sheff

The modest equity market momentum that we saw late in yesterday’s

European stock markets have seen similarly muted moves in aggregate,

Lower-tier reports on consumer confidence (The Conference Board’s

As per White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer:

Of course, there is always the question as to whether or not the

And speaking of the President addressing Congress, a critical date worth

self-proclaimed King of Debt can go cap in hand to Congress for an

The Treasury Department can use its “extraordinary measures” to avoid

ARE SURVEYS EVER GOING TO CONVERGE WITH ACTIVITY DATA?

CHART 4: DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX

Shaded region represents period of U.S. recession

moderation) are uniformly pointing to a material improvement in the

TABLE 1: REGIONAL FED MANUFACTURING SURVEYS

Average 12.4 14.6 25.1 51.8 53.8 55.3

Modelled ISM - - - 55.0 56.8

The gain in core capital goods shipments in December was revised up to

In both cases, the strong handoff from Q4 still leaves Q1 tracking a

level of shipments is up at a 2.8% annualized rate versus the Q4

CHART 5: VEHICLE BUYING CONDITIONS & UNIT AUTO SALES

Shaded regions represent periods of U.S. recession

As well, just as the University of Michigan’s gauge on homebuying ticked

This is a disappointing read (expectations were for a 0.6% increase;

CHART 6: PENDING & ACTUAL EXISTING HOME SALES

This is a scenario that we could see play out in the manufacturing

OVERVIEW PERSONAL Our investment

For further information, please

You might also like