Tim Gallwey is to Performance Coaching what Einstein is to Physics.

Gallwey coined his famous equation

Performance is equal to Potential minus Interference to coach young kids, Tennis.

But the equation can be applied to performance of any entity, individual or policy. We could use it to
discern Govts performance or Indian economy’s just as we could Virat Kohli’s.

How well really is the Govt performing or the economy? Let’s start with economy as the mandate for
development has to be analyzed by analyzing development under the current NDA govt.

Sidestepping the math’s of GDP numbers or the merits of demonetization has its merits as its not only
subjective but is also a story still unfolding. Six months later, we would know better the effects of GST
and other economic measures, such as demonetization.

Potential

Let’s use Gallweys equation. What is India’s economic potential? As per Morgan Stanley, India will be
the third largest economy of the world within a few years. India already is set to become world’s largest
car markets and telecom markets. But potential must be analyzed keeping in mind, constraints and
resources available. Talking of constraints, infrastructure, Capital, high quality skills remains a major
constraint so does red tape and corruption. Is our imagination or lack of it also a constraint?

As an example, Kejriwal introduced the even and odd experiment in Delhi to decongest and reduce
pollution but caved in after a while to media and public pressure. We are still awaiting any real
imaginative plan to decongest Delhi.

If we look at sectors, Tourism, Manufacturing and Agriculture still remain to be tapped enough for
creating jobs or economic value. India manufactures and exports cars but imports its phones. It sends
out more tourists in dollar value spend then it receives. It employs people more in agriculture than any
other but still has farmers starving.

These sectors have potential for job creation on a sustainable and achievable basis. Why is it that we do
not have any overarching vision for employment? For instance, migration is a natural end result of
people moving for better opportunities. Can India sustain intra-state migration? Does it not create
cultural clashes? Or does it carry forward Indianisation and integration of states? Are we better off
people finding work closer to home? Why do we speak in different languages, different dialects for sure
if we only travelled 50kms in any state in India? Did we have a self sufficient economy earlier such that
migration was a past time for those past their primes or for those who were subject matter experts?

Whats the correct economic model for India? Export oriented or import oriented or consumption
driven? Are we better off growing rapidly with debt rather than growing tepidly with manageable debt?
If we grew rapidly, owing to business cycles and structural bottlenecks debt would catch up with some
generation down the line who would have to bear the burden of paying it off. What is certain though is
that we should choose one or the other road, it cant be a middle road. That’s no road at all.
In terms of potential, since the economic growth seems to be coming from the organized sector as the
Govt spend is outstripped by private and foreign investment; it means that these sectors are the ones
where best jobs will be found. This also means that education and social sectors have to be geared to
provide and support these sectors of the economy. Skill India and start up India as yet do not have the
depth or the width to structurally change the economy. In comparison, most large economies have a
sustainable model of skills being developed or imported or both. The education and skill gap which leads
to the jobs gap is perhaps the one that needs a completely new model of growth. Ofcourse India can
given its consumption patterns and its macro economic paradigm should aspire for 10% growth but with
high interest regime imposed by RBI that’s not achievable.This is the cost of foreign investment. India
has in its current environment a potential of 8% growth rate but has been under achieveing for last few
years.

Performance
But first lets measure current performance. Lets look at a few issues and how Modi Govt has dealt with
them.Ive given some weights to issues I think were political planks for the govt to get elected in the first
place

Corruption (30)

Issues to be dealt were, corruption in high places(5), everyday corruption(5) and corruption in the
present/future(5) and past deeds(15).

Govt has dealt with everyday corruption rather well by focusing on e-governance and digitization and
reducing the cash economy using various measures. It has focused on ensuring smaller space for
corruption the future. However wrt corruption in high places and past deeds, there hasn’t been any real
movement forward except for political optics.

Mandate for the govt had given it headroom in its initial months to move fast on putting politicians and
bureaucrats behind bars and it has failed miserably.It seems govt didn’t have the courage to stake its
existence on this issue. There might be more movement forward in this as we head towards elections.
But does this give common man the feeling that the Govt is serious about it, I think not.

11/30

Infrastructure (15)

Energy and Transport sectors have seen positive movement forward esp with govts focus on easing rules
and securing investments. While Ports,Airports and other sectors have only seem tepid reforms and
performance.
8/15

Security & Foreign relations (15)

Internal security has been by and large well managed without any significant reform, except for a shift
politically. Kashmir policy has been a mixed bag. Pakistan and China policies have been very well
managed. This is here Modi has outperformed.

12/15

Economic Performance, Governance & Reform (15)

There hasn’t been any major change in the education or social sectors instead the Govt has focused on
cleaning up the mess of past incumbents. GDP is floundering with traders, exports, entrepreneurs, big
corporates, salaried professionals and farmers all in some sort of distress.

6/15

Cultural transformation (25%)

Modi mandate was expected to fix the perceived Anti-Hindu bias in institutions and move forward on
some issues of importance to the Hinduvtva segment. Instead its got bogged down with the allegations
of Love Jihad, anti Dalit killings and Gau Rakhshaks going beserk. Without going into merits of the cases
and incidents, its now got tow segments unhappy – Liberals with these alleged incidents of hate and
Right wingers wringing their hands as no institutional change has happened wrt Art 370, Ram temple,
Temple trusts, UCC etc.

10/25

Total points 46.5, lets correct it to 50/100.

Interference

Political

Internally Modi has consolidated himself over the last two years and has secured the numbers in the
Upper house. However, in the perception game its still struggling to respond to issues the rag tag
opposition manages to raise.
There is hardly any leader that comes anywhere near Modis appeal and stature right now with out BJP
and without. But it doesn’t take much for one to rise. Infact, is that a blessing or a curse?

No real policy has been opposed by RSS or BJP except for rumblings here and there. It has been well
managed. However, Upper house lack of numbers stymied the Govt for its first two years in the
parliament. Political alliances right now favor BJP. All in all, its been handled well.

Judicial

Despite its efforts the Govt is hampered by a hostile Judiciary as it wrestles to keep control of its
appointments and governance. Govt has failed to badger or convince the SC to really reform its way of
functioning.

Foreign

Rating agencies, Govts and NGOs have cornered the Govt multiple times to make changes to policies or
hamper change despite good reason to make the changes.

Its choice of attracting FDI as a major source of investment has hampered its abilities to formulate
coherent policies relevant for the Indian context esp of a monetary and fiscal nature.

Media

Major dailies around the world and India have critiques Modi endlessly and have praised his policies.
Despite its army in the social media space, Modi hasn’t really won the message war. Its undoing is of its
own making by not really

Corporate Biggies

India’s road infrastructure is broken. It can take you an hour to drive five Kms within a city, patchwork of
flyovers is no long term solution.Recently, Govt announced a 7lac crore plan for Road development. It’s
a welcome move if implemented well. However, question being asked is why did it not happen earlier.

Expected score was 70-80. This is a 30-40% gap with the expectation. The reason for not going into
details of any of the issues is because technical details dont matter as much as much as perception does.
Informed but common citizen have at this point without getting waylaid by political bias questions and
concerns even though by and large the Govt has support for its efforts.

Conclusion:

If we account for people who will still vote for Modi focusing on the hits rather than misses. I would still
fathom, Modi will have a major problem in getting the standard BJP supporter to the polling booth.
Expect a gross 5-10% hit. This could translate in a loss of 50-100 seats if not more. Save this article to
refer back after the results.

Modi Govt started on such a slow note compared to the people’s expectations and mandate it received
that its difficult for people to understand, accept or appreciate the reforms and changes introduced
since last years surgical strikes onwards, its woken up from its slumber. The question is why did it not
act early in its tenure and also whether it will buckle under pressure from entrenched forces as the first
two years lull allowed these forces to survive and consolidate.

Potential is 8%, Performance on average is 6% so the cost of interference is 2%. Therefore, we can trm
Modi Govt as average. UPA had higher interference cost perhaps 3% but that was owing to corruption
and its aftermath not a self inflicted policy based one.