KEEKONOMIAN DAN KOMERSIALITAS CBM

1
OUTLINE PRESENTASI

KEEKONOMIAN DAN KOMERSIALITAS

CBM
ƒ Pendahuluan
ƒ Keekonomian CBM
ƒ Contoh Evaluasi Keekonomian CBM
 CBM Economic Evaluation

• Set Economic Objective

• Parameters & assumptions:
1. Production,
2. Investment (capital, non capital, operating cost),
3. Gas Price
• Term & Conditions

Economic Indicators based on Development

Scenario

Choose Optimum Scenario (Operation)

Economic Sensitivity Analysis

 Reservoir Simulation
Hyat CBM Area

• Kf = 5 mD Æ 80 acres well spacing

• Kf = 5 mD Æ160 acres well spacing
• Kf = 5 mD Æ 250 acres well spacing Key Points

•• Cumulative
CumulativeGas
Gas
Production??
Production

•• Recovery
RecoveryFactor
Factor??
E x p lo r a tio n

•• Sensitivity
SensitivityAnalysis
Analysis??
S ta g e

Qg(MMscf/d) Development Stage

Time (Year)
 Development Plan
Hyat CBM Area

Best Scenario

Economic
Economic Evaluation
Evaluation
(Parameters,
(Parameters, assumptions,
assumptions, term&conditions)
term&conditions)

Cum. Gas, RF ? Cum. Gas, RF ? Cum. Gas, RF ?

Scenario-I Scenario-II Scenario-III

Kf = 5 mD and Kf = 5 mD and Kf = 5 mD and
80 acres well spacing 160 acres well spacing 250 acres well spacing
 CBM Economic Evaluation

• Set Economic Objective

• Parameters & assumptions:
1. Production,
2. Investment (capital, non capital, operating cost),
3. Gas Price
• Term & Conditions

Economic Indicators based on Development

Scenario

Choose Optimum Scenario (Operation)

Economic Sensitivity Analysis

RESERVOIR SIMULATION
Base case parameters Hyat CBM Area model used for Simulation

Base Case Parameters Coal 1 Coal 2 Coal 3 Coal 4

Grid top, m 410 440 620 640
Grid thickness, m 5.62 5.15 6.1 5.5
Porosity matrix, (-) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Porosity fracture, (-) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
k matrix (I,j,k), (mD) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
k fracture (I,j,k), (mD) 5 5 5 5
Gas Composition CH4, CO2 CH4, CO2 CH4, CO2 CH4, CO2
Reservoir Pressure, kPa 4,014 4,308 6,070 6,266
Coal density, gr/cc 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Coal compressibility 2.00E-05 2.00E-05 2.00E-05 2.00E-05
Gas Content, Scf/tonne 318 310 264 315
 Grid Top (ft) 2010-01-01 K layer: 1
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000

Grid Top (m)

-2,000
-3,000
Basecase Simulation Model,

-4,000
160 Acres well spacing Kf=5mD

-5,000
2,099

-6,000
Well-1 Well-2 2,024

-7,000
1,948

-8,000
1,873

Well-3 Well-4 Well-5

-9,000
1,797

-10,000
1,722

-11,000
1,647
Well-6 Well-7

-12,000
1,571

-13,000
1,496

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 mile

-14,000
1,420
-15,000 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 km
1,345
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000
 Grid Top (ft) 2010-01-01 K layer: 1
Grid
0
Top (m)
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000
Basecase Simulation Model,

-2,000
160 Acres well spacing Kf=5mD
-3,000

-4,000
-5,000

2,099

-6,000
Well-1 Well-2 2,024
-7,000

1,948

-8,000
1,873

Well-3 Well-4 Well-5

-9,000

1,797

-10,000
1,722
-11,000

1,647
Well-6 Well-7

-12,000
1,571
-13,000

1,496

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 mile

-14,000
1,420
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 km
-15,000

1,345
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000
 HyatCBM
Tanjung Enim CBMArea
AreaEvaluation
Basecase 160 acres Kf=5md

5.00e+5 300 3.00e+9 80

Cum. Gas = 2.68 BCF
Qg=0.423 MMscfd

4.00e+5
60

200 2.00e+9

Gas Recovery Factor (%)

Gas RF = 64%

Cumulative Gas (ft3)

Water Rate (bbl/day)
Gas Rate (ft3/day)

3.00e+5

40

2.00e+5

Gas Rate@160 acres Kf=5md 100 1.00e+9

Cum. Gas@160 acrea Kf=5md
Water Rate@160 acres Kf=5md 20
1.00e+5 Gas RF@160 acres Kf=5md

0.00e+0 0 0.00e+0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
Fracture Permeability
Sensitivity
 Gas Rate as aEnim
Tanjung function of fracture
CBM Area EvaluationPermeability
(160 acresFracture
well spacing, Kf =
Permeability 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 mD)
Sensitivity

8.00e+5

Tanjung Enim 160acr_02md.irf

Hyat
Tanjung Enim 160acr_03md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_04md.irf
CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md.irf
6.00e+5 Area
Tanjung Enim 160acr_06md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_07md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_08md.irf
Gas Rate SC (ft3/day)

4.00e+5

2.00e+5

0.00e+0
0 1,825 3,650 5,475 7,300 9,125 10,950 12,775
Time (day)
 Water Rate as a function
Tanjung Enim CBMof fracture
Area Permeability
Evaluation
(160 acres well spacing,
Fracture Kf = 2,
Permeability 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 mD)
Sensitivity

300

Tanjung Enim 160acr_02md.irf

Hyat
Tanjung Enim 160acr_03md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_04md.irf
CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md.irf
200
Area
Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

Tanjung Enim 160acr_06md.irf

Tanjung Enim 160acr_07md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_08md.irf

100

0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time (Date)
 CumulativeTanjung
Gas as Enim
a function
CBM Areaof fracture
EvaluationPermeability
(160 acres well spacing,
Fracture Kf = 2,
Permeability 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 mD)
Sensitivity

4.00e+9

Tanjung Enim 160acr_02md.irf

Hyat
Tanjung Enim 160acr_03md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_04md.irf
CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md.irf
Area
Tanjung Enim 160acr_06md.irf
3.00e+9 Tanjung Enim 160acr_07md.irf
Tanjung Enim 160acr_08md.irf
Cumulative Gas SC (ft3)

2.00e+9

1.00e+9

0.00e+0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time (Date)
Well Spacing
Sensitivity
 Well Spacing Sensitivity
j g
Well Spacing Sensitivity

6.00e+5 288

5.50e+5 Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 80acr_05md.irf

Hyat CBM
Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Basecase).irf
AreaEnim 250acr_05md.irf
Gas Rate SC Tanjung
5.00e+5
238
4.50e+5

4.00e+5

Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

Gas Rate SC (ft3/day)

3.50e+5 188

3.00e+5

2.50e+5
138

2.00e+5

1.50e+5
88
1.00e+5

5.00e+4

0.00e+0 38
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Well Spacing Sensitivity
j g
Well Spacing Sensitivity

300

Tanjung Enim 80acr_05md.irf

Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Basecase).irf
250
AreaEnim 250acr_05md.irf
Tanjung

200
Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Well Spacing Sensitivity
j g
Well Spacing Sensitivity

4.00e+9

Tanjung Enim 80acr_05md.irf

3.50e+9 Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Basecase).irf
AreaEnim 250acr_05md.irf
Tanjung
3.00e+9
Cumulative Gas SC (ft3)

2.50e+9

2.00e+9

1.50e+9

1.00e+9

5.00e+8

0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
Gas Content
Sensitivity
 Gas Content Sensitivity Gas Content Sensitivity

6.00e+5 288
Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Gc 0.5 Basecase).irf
5.50e+5 Hyat CBM
Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md (Basecase).irf
Area Enim 160acr_05md(Gc 1.5 Basecase).irf
Gas Rate SC Tanjung
5.00e+5
238
4.50e+5

4.00e+5

Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

Gas Rate SC (ft3/day)

3.50e+5 188

3.00e+5

2.50e+5
138

2.00e+5

1.50e+5
88
1.00e+5

5.00e+4

0.00e+0 38
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Gas Content Sensitivity Gas Content Sensitivity

300

Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Gc 0.5 Basecase).irf

Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md (Basecase).irf
250
Area Enim 160acr_05md(Gc 1.5 Basecase).irf
Tanjung

200
Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Gas Content Sensitivity Gas Content Sensitivity

3.00e+9

Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Gc 0.5 Basecase).irf

Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md (Basecase).irf
Area Enim 160acr_05md(Gc 1.5 Basecase).irf
Tanjung
2.50e+9

2.00e+9
Cumulative Gas SC (ft3)

1.50e+9

1.00e+9

5.00e+8

0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
Coal Thickness
Sensitivity
 Coal Thickness Sensitivity Thickness Sensitivity

6.00e+5 288

5.50e+5 Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(h 0.75 BC).irf

Hyat CBM
Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Basecase).irf
5.00e+5 AreaEnim 160acr_05md(h 1.25 BC).irf
Gas Rate SC Tanjung
238
4.50e+5

4.00e+5

Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

Gas Rate SC (ft3/day)

3.50e+5 188

3.00e+5

2.50e+5
138

2.00e+5

1.50e+5
88
1.00e+5

5.00e+4

0.00e+0 38
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Coal Thickness Sensitivity Thickness Sensitivity

300

250
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(h 0.75 BC).irf
Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Basecase).irf
AreaEnim 160acr_05md(h 1.25 BC).irf
Tanjung
200
Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Coal Thickness Sensitivity
Thickness Sensitivity

4.00e+9

Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(h 0.75 BC).irf

Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md(Basecase).irf
3.50e+9 AreaEnim 160acr_05md(h 1.25 BC).irf
Tanjung

3.00e+9
Cumulative Gas SC (ft3)

2.50e+9

2.00e+9

1.50e+9

1.00e+9

5.00e+8

0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
Fracture Porosity
Sensitivity
 Fracture Porosity SensitivityFracture Porosity Sensitivity

5.00e+5 288
Gas Rate SCHyat
Tanjung
CBMEnim 160acr_05md Por 1 percent (BC).irf
4.50e+5 Gas Rate SC Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md Por 5 percent.irf
Area Enim 160acr_05md Por 10 percent.irf
Gas Rate SC Tanjung

4.00e+5 238

3.50e+5

Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

Gas Rate SC (ft3/day)

3.00e+5 188

2.50e+5

2.00e+5 138

1.50e+5

1.00e+5 88

5.00e+4

0.00e+0 38
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Fracture Porosity Sensitivity
Fracture Porosity Sensitivity

600
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md Por 1 percent (BC) NCW
550 Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md Por 5 percent NCW.irf
Area Enim 160acr_05md Por 10 percent NCW.irf
Tanjung
500

450

400
Water Rate SC (bbl/day)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 j g
FractureFracture
Porosity Sensitivity
Porosity Sensitivity

3.00e+9

Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md Por 1 percent (BC).irf

Hyat CBM
Tanjung Enim 160acr_05md Por 5 percent.irf
AreaEnim 160acr_05md Por 10 percent.irf
Tanjung
2.50e+9

2.00e+9
Cumulative Gas SC (ft3)

1.50e+9

1.00e+9

5.00e+8

0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
Simulation Summary
Fracture Permeability
Scenario
3 5 7 80
1 x
2 x
3 x
4 x
5 x
6 x
7 x
8 x
9 x
Well Spacing (acre) Recovery / well
160 250 (Bcf / well)
x 1.45
x 2.09
x 2.29
x 1.65
x 2.68
x 3.33
x 1.74
x 3.00
x 3.94
 Development Plan
Hyat CBM AREA

Best Scenario

Economic
Economic Evaluation
Evaluation
Economic
Economic Indicators
Indicators

Cum. Gas, RF ? Cum. Gas, RF ? Cum. Gas, RF ?

Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3

Kf = 5 mD and Kf = 5 mD and Kf = 5 mD and
80 acres well spacing 160 acres well spacing 250 acres well spacing
Cum. Per well=1.65 BCF Cum. Per well=2.68 BCF Cum. Per well=3.33 BCF
 Single well performance prediction of Hyat CBM Area
Scenario-1(80 acres well spacing, Kf=5md)
5.00e+5 300 3.00e+9
Gas Rate@80 acres Kf=5md
Cum. Gas@80 acrea Kf=5md
Water Rate@80 acres Kf=5md

4.00e+5 Qg=0.423 MMscfd

200 2.00e+9

Cumulative Gas (SCF)

Water Rate (bbl/day)
Gas Rate (SCF/day)

3.00e+5

2.00e+5
Cum. Gas = 1.65 BCF
100 1.00e+9

1.00e+5

0.00e+0 0 0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Development Plan
Hyat CBM Area
Year
Work Description 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Pilot Project
Detail plan
Coring
Exploration well
Drilling pilot well
Dewatering&production test
Evaluation

POD Phase
G&G Review
Engineering/Economic Review
Approval

Development Phase
Engineering deign
Drilling facilities
Drilling
Dewatering
Production facilities

Production stream
Stages of Exploration and Development

Exploration Stage Exploration Stage

Exploration Stage Commercial Development

 Well Development Schedule

Development Wells
Tanjung
Hyat Enim
CBM CBM
AreaArea

80 600

Number of wells
70
Cumulative wells 500
60
Number of Well

50
50
50

400

Total wells
50
40

40 300

30
25
24

200
22

22
22
20

20

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

15
100
10

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Time, Year
 Field Gas Production Performance
Tanjung Enim CBM Area
Hyat CBM Area

100

90

80
Gas Rate Prediction, MMSCFD

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Year

Total produksi selama 30 tahun = 695 BCF

(Project RF = 63%)
 Water Rate Performance Prediction
Tanjung
Hyat Enim
CBM CBM
AreaArea

30

25
W a te r R a te , M B W P D

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Year
 Single well performance prediction of Hyat CBM Area
Scenario-2(160 acres well spacing, Kf=5md)
5.00e+5 300 3.00e+9

Qg=0.420 MMscfd Gas Rate@160 acres Kf=5md

Cum. Gas@160 acrea Kf=5md
Water Rate@160 acres Kf=5md

4.00e+5

Cum. Gas = 2.68 BCF

200 2.00e+9

Cumulative Gas (SCF)

Water Rate (bbl/day)
Gas Rate (SCF/day)

3.00e+5

2.00e+5

100 1.00e+9

1.00e+5

0.00e+0 0 0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Development Plan
Hyat CBM Area
Scenario-2(160 acres well spacing, Kf=5md)

Year
Work Description 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Pilot Project
Detail plan
Coring
Exploration well
Drilling pilot well
Dewatering&production test
Evaluation

POD Phase
G&G Review
Engineering/Economic Review
Approval

Development Phase
Engineering deign
Drilling facilities
Drilling
Dewatering
Production facilities

Production stream
 Well Development Schedule

Development Wells
Tanjung
Hyat Enim
CBMCBM
AreaArea

80 600

Number of wells
70
Cumulative wells 500

60
50
50

400
50
Number of Well

Total wells
40 300

30
25

200

20
15
10
10
10
10

10

10

100
10
5
5

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Tim e, Year
 Field Gas Production Performance
Tanjung
Hyat Enim
CBMCBMAreaArea

80

70
Gas Rate Prediction, MMSCFD

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Year

Total produksi selama 30 tahun = 537 BCF

(Project RF = 49%)
 Water Rate Performance Prediction
Hyat Enim
Tanjung CBM CBM
AreaArea

30

25
W a te r R a te , M B W P D

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Year
 Single well performance prediction of Hyat CBM Area
Scenario-3(250 acres well spacing, Kf=5md)
5.00e+5 300 4.00e+9

Qg=0.414 MMscfd
Cum. Gas = 3.33 BCF

4.00e+5
3.00e+9

200

Cumulative Gas (SCF)

Water Rate (bbl/day)
Gas Rate (SCF/day)

3.00e+5

2.00e+9

2.00e+5

100
Gas Rate@250 acres Kf=5md
Cum. Gas@250 acrea Kf=5md
Water Rate@250 acres Kf=5md 1.00e+9
1.00e+5

0.00e+0 0 0.00e+0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time (yr)
 Development Plan
Hyat CBM Area
Scenario-3(250 acres well spacing, Kf=5md)

Year
Work Description 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039

Pilot Project
Detail plan
Coring
Exploration well
Drilling pilot well
Dewatering&production test
Evaluation

POD Phase
G&G Review
Engineering/Economic Review
Approval

Development Phase
Engineering deign
Drilling facilities
Drilling
Dewatering
Production facilities

Production stream
 Well Development Schedule
Development Wells
Tanjung Enim Area
Hyat CBM CBM Area

80 600

Number of wells
70
Cumulative wells 500

60
50
50

400
50
N u m b e r o f W e ll

T o t a l w e lls
40 300

30
25

200

20
15

100
10
5

5
0

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time, Year
 Field Gas Production Performance
Tanjung
Hyat Enim
CBMCBM
AreaArea

70

60
Gas Rate Prediction, MMSCFD

50

40

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Year

Total produksi selama 30 tahun = 446 BCF

(Project RF = 41%)
 Water Rate Performance Prediction
Tanjung
Hyat Enim
CBMCBMAreaArea

140

120

100
W a te r R a te , M B W P D

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Year
 Results of the gas development predictions plan for
Scenario-I, -II, and III, Recovery factor, and Number of
production wells

Sweet Spot Cum. Gas

IGIP RF
Scenario Area Max. Well Prod.
Acres BSCF BSCF %
80 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 40,000 500 695 1,100 63.18%
160 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 40,000 250 537 1,100 48.82%
250 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 40,000 160 446 1,100 40.55%
CBM Production Systems
mmscfd
+/-10 psig

Wellhead CENTRAL
(10-20 psi) GAS SALES
GEN/ COMPR @
WELL SITE.
GATHERING SYSTEM COMPRES.

Water Treatment

700 -1000
MMSCFD
WATER

90-150

psig
END USERS

Own Use 7-10%

LNG & Fertilizer Plants PIPELINE
 Facilities and Power Generation Cost

Wells VLP LP MP
™ ? wells ™ 10 unit, 10 ™ 2 unit, 50 ™ 2 unit, 50
™ ? cluster MMscfd cap. MMscfd cap. MMscfd cap
™ ? single well ™ Ps/Pd = 25/200 ™ Ps/Pd = ™ Ps/Pd =
psig 150/325 psig 300/825 psig
™ $3million/unit ™ $8.5million/unit ™ $9.3million/unit
Power Generation
™ 10 MW of additional power requirement
™ 1 unit of gas turbine generator with $20 million of total cost
The identified potential buyers around the project
location are :
` Gas For Small /Local IPP
` To utilize gas production during early stage to
small scale IPP for 3-6 MMSCFD and by short
term contract (if possible).
` Replacement for PLN.
` Other Consumers.
Economic Evaluation

HOTEL Hyat
BANDUNG, 2 JULI 2009 54
 Economic Evaluation Work Flow
Economic Evaluation will be calculated based on the
Development Scenario

• Parameters & assumptions:

1. Production,
2. Investment (capital, non capital, operating cost),
3. Price

• Term & Conditions

Economic Indicators

Economic Sensitivity Analysis

Objective
The economic analysis conducted as part of
this study is intended to evaluate the
economic feasibility of development and
commercial exploitation of the CBM Project.
Economic Indicator
` Rate of Return (ROR)
` Net Present Value (NPV)
` Pay Out Time (POT)
` Productivity Index (PI)

HOTEL Hyat
BANDUNG, 2 JULI 2009 57
Base Case Term and Conditions
Revenue distribution of CBM project
GROSS REVENUE
(GR)
FTP Non Share
10% CR = 90%(GR-FTP)

ETS
100.00 %

GS CONTRACTOR SHARE
28.57% 19.6429 80.36 71.43%

DMO
25.00 %

DMO FEE
100.00 %

TAXABLE INCOME

TAX
44 %

35.36 NET CONTR. SHARE

40% of ETS
45.00
GOI TAKE
20
10% of GR + 60% of ETS
CONTRACTOR TAKE
40 % of ETS + CR
55.00

- 68
Basecase Term & Conditions

Remarks Joint Evaluation Study

Commercial Terms
Government Tax Standard (44%)
Fiscal Model PSC
FTP (Non Sharable) 10 % at project life
Net Contractor Share 40%
Investment Credit No Investment credit
Cap Cost Recovery 90%
DMO & DMO fee 25% & 100%
Project Life 30 years
 Parameters & Assumptions
(Project Investment & Operating Cost )
• Investasi besar :
– Land clearing lebih banyak
– Jumlah sumur banyak
– Interwell pipelines lebih banyak
– Dewatering
– Tekanan rendah
 Fuel Consumption Assumption
Actual VICO Fuel Consumption Chart

• VICO. future projected fuel to wellhead gas : 6% (conventional gas no need dewatering period)
• Estimate CBM fuel to wellhead gas : 2 x 6% = 12% Factor to compensate dewatering, lower
pressure system and more number of
wells
Parameters & Assumptions
(Project Investment & Operating Cost )

Depth 1000 m
Core Hole
Core Hole
(Depth=1000m)
Rig Rent per day/hp ( 550 hp) US$ 35 288,750
Rig Moving 0.7 x rig rent 28,875
Coring 30,000
Total cost 347,625

Arrow
Parameters & Assumptions
(Project Investment & Operating Cost )
Expl.Well Dev. Well
Drilling Costs:
(Depth=1000m) (Depth=700m)
Rig Rent per day/hp ( 550 hp) US$ 35 412,500 103,125
Rig Moving rig rent 28,875 7,219
Casing 450,000 300,000
Well Head 33,000 33,000
Cementing 225,000 112,500
Logging 20,000 12,000
Coring 30,000 9,900
Completion(fract.,prod test, 100,000 100,000
Well gathering(Pump, genset,separator & Install))
Drilling cost per well 1,299,375 677,744
 Parameters & Assumptions
Capital, non capital, and operating expenditures Scenarios-I, -II, and -III
Cost, M US $
Capital Expenditures Scen-I Scen-II Scen-III
• Total exploration wells 1,169 1,169 1,169
• Total development wells 182,991 91,495 58,557
• Workover@US$ 250,000/well 2,781 1,375 869
• Production facilities (gas&water gathering, 417,714 291,293 211,331
internal pipelines)
Total Capital Expenditures 604,655 385,333 271,926
Cost, M US $
Non Capital Expenditures Scen-I Scen-II Scen-III
• Total Coring 1,043 1,043 1,043
• Total exploration wells 2,729 2,729 2,729
• Total development wells 426,979 213,489 136,633
• Workover@US$ 250,000/well 52,844 26,125 16,506
• Production facilities, 5% of 20,886 15,331 11,123
(gas&water gathering, compression&dehydration,
water treatment/disposal,
internal pipelines)
• Exploration land clearing&preparation 320 320 320
• Production land clearing&preparation 19,250 8,000 3,950
• Access roads 7,155 4,305 2,400
• GGR studies 400 400 400
Total Non Capital Expenditures 531,605 271,742 175,104
Cost, M US $
Operating Expenditures Scen-I Scen-II Scen-III

Operating cost consisting well maintenance, production

cost, treating plant, water handling and gas
compression/transportation. 834,422 630,645 517,594
Total Operating Expenditures 834,422 630,645 517,594
ECONOMIC RESULTS

65
 Results of the gas development predictions plan for
Scenario-I, -II, and III, Recovery factor, and Number of production
wells
Sweet Spot Cum. Gas
IGIP RF
Scenario Area Max. Well Prod.
Acres BSCF BSCF %
80 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 40,000 500 695 1,100 63.18%
160 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 40,000 250 537 1,100 48.82%
250 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 40,000 160 446 1,100 40.55%

Economic Indicator Results of Scenarios-I, -II, and III

Hyat CBM Area Project

Economic Indicators
Scenario IRR NPV@12% POT PI
% M US$ Year Fraction
80 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 19.57% 116,918 11.78 1.23
160 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 21.47% 108,381 10.93 1.29
250 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 22.23% 93,816 10.54 1.32
 Revenue distribution of Scenarios-I, -II, and III
Hyat CBM Area Project

Revenue Distribution
Scenario Government Take Contractor Share Cost Recovery
M US$ % M US$ % M US$ %
80 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 3,146,363 46% 1,676,735 25% 1,949,798 29%
160 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 2,440,227 48% 1,311,662 26% 1,287,721 26%
250 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 2,044,407 50% 1,107,619 27% 964,624 23%

Scenario-I Scenario-II Scenario-III

Revenue distribution of Scenarios-I, -II, and III
Hyat CBM Area Project
Economic Indicators
Scenario IRR NPV@12%
% M US$
80 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 19.57% 116,918
160 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 21.47% 108,381
250 Acres Well Spac, Kf=5mD 22.23% 93,816

• Incremental Internal Rate of Return from Scenario-III and Scenario-II is

of IRR = 22%. Æ Scenario-II more feasible than Scenario-III.
• Incremental Internal Rate of Return from Scenario-II and Scenario-I is
of IRR =18%. Æ Scenario-I more feasible than Scenario-II.

Scenario-I is the best scenario

Economic Sensitivity
Analysis
 IRR as a function of Gas Price, Gas Production, Investment,
Opex, and Contractor Share Changes

Spider Diagram - IRR

0.3
Capital

Non Capital
0.28
Production

Gas Price

0.26 Operating Cost

Contractor Share

0.24
Internal Rate of Return

0.22

0.2

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12
0.75 0.85 1 1.1 1.25

Factor
 NPV as a function of Gas Price, Gas Production, Investment,
Opex, and Contractor Share Changes

Spider Diagram - NPV

225,000
Capital

Non Capital
200,000
Production

Operating Cost

175,000 Contractor Share

150,000
Net Present Value (M US$)

125,000

100,000

75,000

50,000

25,000

0
0.75 0.85 1 1.1 1.25

Factor
 POT as a function of Gas Price, Gas Production, Investment,
Opex, and Contractor Share Changes
Spider Diagram - POT
14.4
Capital
Non Capital
13.95
Production
Operating Cost
13.5 Contractor Share

13.05
Pay Out Time (Year)

12.6

12.15

11.7

11.25

10.8

10.35
0.75 0.85 1 1.1 1.25

Factor
 PI as a function of Gas Price, Gas Production, Investment,
Opex, and Contractor Share Changes
Spider Diagram - PI
1.45
Capital

Non Capital
1.4
Production

Operating Cost
1.35 Contractor Share

1.3
Profitability Index

1.25

1.2

1.15

1.1

1.05

1
0.75 0.85 1 1.1 1.25

Factor
 IRR, NPV, POT, PI as a function of Contractor Share Changes
(FTP Non Sharable)
Base Price, US$ / MCF
NCS Indicator Satuan
3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5
Net Present Value (NPV) -16,597.68 29,070.97 71,089.24 110,418.51 141,407.90 M US$
Payout Tim e (POT) 14.53 12.97 11.91 11.22 10.86 Year
30.00%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 10.88% 14.04% 17.14% 20.20% 22.71% Percent
Profitability Index (PI) 0.97 1.06 1.14 1.22 1.28 Fraction
Net Present Value (NPV) -3,084.99 47,191.88 94,003.84 138,253.03 173,453.58 M US$
Payout Tim e (POT) 14.43 12.89 11.85 11.1 10.76 Year
35.00%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 11.80% 15.13% 18.41% 21.65% 24.33% Percent
Profitability Index (PI) 0.99 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.34 Fraction
Net Present Value (NPV) 10,427.70 65,312.79 116,918.43 166,087.54 205,499.27 M US$
Payout Tim e (POT) 14.34 12.82 11.78 11 10.66 Year
40.00%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 12.64% 16.14% 19.57% 22.98% 25.80% Percent
Profitability Index (PI) 1.02 1.13 1.23 1.32 1.4 Fraction
Net Present Value (NPV) 23,940.39 83,433.69 139,833.03 193,922.06 237,544.95 M US$
Payout Tim e (POT) 14.25 12.74 11.72 10.95 10.57 Year
45.00%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 13.42% 17.06% 20.65% 24.20% 27.18% Percent
Profitability Index (PI) 1.05 1.16 1.27 1.38 1.46 Fraction
Net Present Value (NPV) 34,750.54 97,930.42 158,164.71 216,189.67 263,181.50 M US$
Payout Tim e (POT) 14.18 12.68 11.67 10.91 10.51 Year
49.00%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 14.01% 17.76% 21.45% 25.12% 28.21% Percent
Profitability Index (PI) 1.07 1.19 1.31 1.42 1.51 Fraction
Note :
4.5 US$/MCF = 5 US$/MMBTU