Note: This spreadsheet can accurately calculate each product's Customer Score within +/- 3 points.

Once you've familiarized yourself with the Orange Book and

the simulation, it will assist you in generating possible forecast scenarios. The big unknown will be estimating your competitor's scores. Small mistakes when
entering data can lead to very wrong results, so double-check every relevant field. This entire process is explained below.

IMPORTANT! Start here by opening your Industry Conditions report and Round Zero Capstone Courier. If the information there is different from what you see on
the 'Overview' page, then you will need to make some adjustments. (Keep reading below…)

The above pictures are examples of what you need to look for. In most circumstances, you won't need to do anything, and you can skip forward to the instructions.
It is possible you will need to change the Initial Demand, Segment Centers, Growth Rates, and Buying Criteria for each segment. If this is the case, refer to the
pictures below for guidance. This information will be entered into the cells on the below, and on the 'Overview' sheet.

Enter the buying criteria here as a

decimal. For example, if price is 41% of
a customer's critiera, enter 0.41. Make
sure your four critieria numbers equal 1.

Enter the ideal age, the MTBF range,

and price range. Since the price range
fluctuates, only change the first number
in the formula. In the example here,
you would change the 20 to the initial
minimum, and the 30 to the initial
maximum price.

Similar to the price range, you will need

to adjust the formula here to your
Round Zero (initial) conditions for both
size and performance.

Check the Courier for the Round 0 Demand numbers in each segment. Enter that information in the cells below. The growth rate can be changed easily by clicking
on it's cell and adjusting the number (on the Overview page). Next Year's Demand will automatically be calculated, and does not need to be changed.

Initial Demand

7387
Trad.

8960
Low

2554
High

1915
Perform

Size
1984
 Size
1984

The rest of the information below will tell you what each section on the 'Overview' sheet means. In the future, I may add additional features in case your simulation
uses the Ethics, Labor, or Advanced Marketing module. TQM has it's own sheet, and gives you the ideal numbers to enter if it starts in Round 4.

These charts show you where the ideal

spots are in each segment. Keep in
mind that the ideal spot will change
every month during the year - beginning
at the ideal spot from last year, and
ending at the coordinates provided to
you in December.

Remember to change this everytime

you change rounds. It is tied to most of
the formulas on the spreadsheet. When
you introduce a new product, you can
advance it by a round to see what the
conditions will look like next year.

Change the numbers here if you wish to

change AR or AP Lag. TQM can have an
effect on your demand, and you can use
the TQM sheet to determine what
percentage to use here. These are
important to getting accurate forecasts.

Example: You have an average score of

Even if you know your customer score,
you will need to know the average of
your competitors scores to accurately
assess demand. The first number is
how many major competitors you are
expecting next year in that segment.
The second number is the average
score.
Scroll to the right for more information -------------->
50 in the Traditional segment, and there
are 7 products (not including your own)
The easiest way to estimate your
that capture 5% or more market share.
competition's average customer score is
If their average scores are 40, you get:
to look at your average and decide how
you think they will do relative to you. If
you are in the Traditional segment, and
are near the ideal age, MTBF, etc. - you
would set their average score below
yours. Take a look at these Courier
examples.

Because you need to hope for the best,

but prepare for the worst - this will let
you quickly change the numbers
depending on the selected option.

Sometimes you will decide to switch

products to a new segment, retire a
product, or introduce a new line. When
you do this you change the segment
and product name here. Also, if you
expect a product to have crossover
sales in another segment, you can
change it here. Don't forget that each
segment has a different accessibility
and sales budget number.

When beginning a new round, enter the

current performance and size up top,
and what you are R&D'ing to on the
bottom.

Last year's awareness and accessibility

can be found in the Courier. The
spreadsheet sometimes miscalculates
by 1-2% points because multiple factors
can affect your final numbers. New
Awareness/Accessibility will be
determined by your promotion and
sales budget numbers. Products in the
same segment will share an accessibility
%.
 Last year's awareness and accessibility
can be found in the Courier. The
spreadsheet sometimes miscalculates
by 1-2% points because multiple factors
can affect your final numbers. New
Awareness/Accessibility will be
determined by your promotion and
sales budget numbers. Products in the
same segment will share an accessibility
%.

Like the ideal position, you age changes

every round. You only need to enter
the top value, and the bottom will be
calculated from the top and your
revision month and year.

This will affect your price score for the

year. Unlike age and position, it does
not change during the round.

When you change your MTBF, put the

current MTBF up top, and the new one
down below.

Your age, MTBF, and position scores will

need to know this information or you
won't get accurate results. I didn't
include Revision Day because of the
time it would take.

To keep the spreadsheet as accurate as

possible, you will need to let it know
whether or not your product is new.
Type YES or NO. When you are done
with the round, change it to NO.

If your product is outside of the fine cut

circle in it's product segment, you'll
need to estimate how much penalty it
will receive. Reference the Orange
book. Any penalties for being outside
the range in Age, MTBF, Position,
and/or Price are used to determine your
customer score.

Your leftover inventory will be

subtracted from your recommended
production schedule.

Gives you an idea of how well you are

doing in each of the criteria, awareness,
and accessibility. Does not affect your
customer score.

Everything you input is calculated to

determine a final customer score
average for the year. You can also click
on the December Score sheet for the
Courier estimate.

Using your customer score, and the

scores of your competition, the
spreadsheet will give you an estimate of
that product's demand, how many to
produce, and, combined with inventory,
the best case sales scenario.

(Optional) Enter the updated data from

your production analysis to get your
plant utilization numbers.
 Calculating the Customer Score
As I already mentioned, this sheet cannot give you 100% accurate results, but it comes very close. How is the Customer Score, Industry Demand, and recommended Production calculated? In each
segment you are given points for how well you match the buying criteria. In Traditional, for example, you can receive up to 21 points for Positioning, 23 points for Price, 9 points for MTBF, and 47
points for Age. Here's a Round 1 sample:

Because you can only be at the ideal position once per year, you will receive an Position Score average based on the distance formula. Your age also goes up every month, so the Age Score is an
average too. Although the segment MTBF range will stay the same, if you change your MTBF you will receive an average score. The Price, Awareness, Accessibility, and Sales Budget do not change,
so these scores are determined immediately.

POSITION

AGE

MTBF

PRICE

Once you combine the scores from the 4 buying criteria there are factors that can increase or decrease your final score. Each is individually applied to the raw score. The one that I haven't fully
figured out is the Sales Budget. It will increase your accessibility, but it also has a hidden effect on your score as well. I tried a little reverse engineering, but don't know the exact formula.

AWARENESS &
ACCESSIBILITY
 The same formula applies
here to Accessibility.

AR LAG (CREDIT)
 Segment Buying Criteria % Value Ideal Age Price/MTBF Ideal Pfm Ideal Size Industry Conditions
Price 23% $18.00 Current Demand Growth Rate Next Year Demand Advanced: Competitors Estimates Charts
CAPSIM
1457.75
Position 21% $28.00
Traditional 2 7.8 12.2
PREDICT 14000 10504 9.2% 11470
Age 47% Segment # of Competiting Products [1] Est. Competitor Score [2] Segment Position Age Price MTBF
MTBF 9% 19000
Price 53% $13.00 Traditional 12 44.6
Traditional
Position 16% $23.00
Low 7 3.7 16.3 8960 11.7% 15580
Age 24% 12000
MTBF 7% 17000 Low 12 27.67
ROUND Price 9% $28.00
Low
Position 43% $38.00
High 0 12.5 7.5 4656 16.2% 5411
Age 29% 20000 High 11 39
MTBF 19% 25000
Price 19% $23.00
High
Position 29% $33.00 Performance 6 45.5
Perform 1 13.4 13.2 1915 19.8% 4726
22000
4
Age 9%

MTBF 43% 27000

Price 9% $23.00
Size 6 41.57 Perform
Position 43% $33.00
Size 1.5 6.8 6.6 1984 18.3% 4597
Age 29% 16000
MTBF 19% 21000
Forecast Index
January 1st, [3] 2022 Scott Corwin - scott.d.corwin@gmail.com
VS Humans Size
Make sure the year aligns with your Courier round number. Edit the formula in AR Lag [4] (Inactive Feature) TQM Demand [5]
C20 so that it tracks that, you may need to subtract 1 if your sim takes place
during a new year. 0.92 0.99 0

Segment/Product [6] Research & Development [7] Marketing Customer Score Criteria Scores Modifiers
New This Current Pfm Current Age (YR Revised Revision Day Revision Revision Aware Access Promo Sales Budget New Position Age
Category [8] Product Year? [9]
Current Size MTBF Beginning)
Revised Pfm Revised Size MTBF [11] Month [12] Year [13]
Price [14] Age (DEC) Awareness New Accessibility Score
Price Score Score MTBF Score Est. Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit After TQM ?
[10] [15] [16] Budget [17]
2.80 100% 95% 8.75 Demand Penalty! 42.48 6.29 7.4% 36.60 10.32 0 0.92 2.93 0 0.7070945686
1680
2022 Demand 783 Demand Penalty
Plant Utilization
Traditional Fast NO 6.4 13.6 17500 1.8 6.4 13.6 17500 1 1 2022 $28.50 100% 90% $1,500.00 $3,000.00 2022 1960
Customer Score (AVG) 43 Inventory 483 Best Case 913 [18] (20/40/60/80%) 2240
Production Schedule 430 [19] 10.0%
2520
4.80 100% 86% 14.35 13.25 14.89 2.79 8.0% 26.95 8.23 0 1.93 2.16 0 0.5951613505
780
2022 Demand 713 Demand Penalty
Low Feat NO 3.0 17.0 14000 7.6 3.7 16.3 14000 1 1 2022 $20.50 100% 76% $1,500.00 $3,500.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 910
Customer Score (AVG) 31 0 832 (20/40/60/80%) 1040
Production Schedule 832 0.0%
1170
1.65 100% 73% 34.04 Demand Penalty! 21.43 11.37 9.0% 47.28 5.55 0 6.42 3.78 0 0.7858827992
1200
2022 Demand 421 Demand Penalty
High Fist NO 10.7 9.3 23000 1.3 12.5 7.5 23000 1 1 2022 $38.50 100% 71% $1,500.00 $2,500.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 1400
Customer Score (AVG) 43 0 491 (20/40/60/80%) 1600
Production Schedule 491 10.0%
1800
1.51 100% 75% 12.76 1.00 7.59 42.96 14.5% 49.45 6.97 0 6.08 3.96 0 0.7689740233
840
2022 Demand 278 Demand Penalty
Perform Foam NO 11.4 14.6 27000 1.6 12.0 14.0 27000 30 7 2022 $33.00 100% 66% $1,500.00 $3,000.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 980
Customer Score (AVG) 46 0 324 (20/40/60/80%) 1120
Production Schedule 324 0.0%
1260
1.50 100% 85% 20.86 1.00 27.99 11.38 15.8% 47.14 7.20 0 3.60 3.77 0 0.7699595177
840
2022 Demand 314 Demand Penalty
Size Fume NO 5.4 8.6 19000 1.5 6.0 8.0 19000 29 6 2022 $33.00 100% 77% $1,350.00 $3,500.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 980
Customer Score (AVG) 47 0 367 (20/40/60/80%) 1120
Production Schedule 367 0.0%
1260
3.00 100% 86% 3.89 31.80 7.42 0.01 7.1% 26.71 5.02 0 1.91 2.14 0 0.6193679659
660
2022 Demand 635 Demand Penalty
Low F1 NO 4.7 15.0 12000 2 4.7 15.0 12000 1 1 2022 $17.00 83% 76% $2,000.00 $2,000.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 770
Customer Score (AVG) 28 4 740 (20/40/60/80%) 880
Production Schedule 736 0.0%
990
1.00 92% 95% 18.66 Demand Penalty! 36.69 5.77 #N/A 33.67 9.49 1 0.84 2.69 0 0.6888026847
660
2022 Demand #N/A Demand Penalty
Traditional F2 NO 7.7 12.3 14000 0.8 7.7 12.3 17500 18 2 2022 $29.00 70% 90% $2,000.00 $3,000.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 770
Customer Score (AVG) 38 288 #N/A (20/40/60/80%) 880
Production Schedule #N/A 20.0%
990
1.80 17% #N/A 0.00 Demand Penalty! 20.83 19.00 #N/A 0.00 0.00 0 #N/A 0.00 0 0.4771668868
690
2022 Demand Inactive Demand Penalty
Not Developed ? NO 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 12 29 1980 $1.00 25% 25% $5.00 $5.00 2022
Inventory Best Case
Plant Utilization 805
Customer Score (AVG) Inactive 0 Inactive (20/40/60/80%) 920
Production Schedule Inactive 100.0%
1035

Unloved Data Abandoned Table of Shame

Product Segment Capacity Traditional Low High Perform Size
A Blue Bar That Does Nothing Fast Traditional 1400 1400 0 0 0 0
Feat Low 650 0 1400 0 0 0
Fist High 1000 0 0 1400 0 0
Foam Perform 700 0 0 0 1400 0
Fume Size 700 0 0 0 0 1400
F1 Low 550 0 1400 0 0 0
F2 Traditional 550 550 0 0 0 0
? Not Developed 575 0 0 0 0 0
 Category Product Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty
40.65 11.46 0 1.02 3.25
6.4 13.6 100% 95% 2.80 $28.50 17500 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 Dec. Customer Score 30 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
Traditional Fast
10.0% 5.04 Demand Penalty! 33.84 6.29 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty 49.06 14.98 0 3.52 3.92
Low Feat 3.7 16.3 100% 86% 4.80 $20.50 14000 $1,500.00 $3,500.00 Dec. Customer Score 35 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
0.0% 16.00 13.25 17.02 2.79 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty 62.42 7.33 0 8.48 0.00
High Fist 12.5 7.5 100% 73% 1.65 $38.50 23000 $1,500.00 $2,500.00 Dec. Customer Score 49 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
10.0% 43.00 Demand Penalty! 14.99 11.37 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty 63.03 8.88 0 7.75 0.00
Perform Foam 12.0 14.0 100% 75% 1.51 $33.00 27000 $1,500.00 $3,000.00 Dec. Customer Score 49 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
0.0% 11.02 1.00 8.10 42.91 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty 57.71 8.81 0 4.41 4.62
Size Fume 6.0 8.0 100% 85% 1.50 $33.00 19000 $1,350.00 $3,500.00 Dec. Customer Score 44 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
0.0% 16.34 1.00 29.00 11.37 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty 46.53 8.74 0 3.33 3.72
Low F1 4.7 15.0 100% 86% 3.00 $17.00 12000 $2,000.00 $2,000.00 Dec. Customer Score 31 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
0.0% 6.08 31.80 8.64 0.01 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit
Penalty 57.59 16.24 2 1.44 4.61
Traditional F2 0.0 0.0 92% 95% 1.80 $29.00 17500 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 Dec. Customer Score 51 Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
20.0% 20.58 Demand Penalty! 45.12 6.29 0

Current Pfm Current Size Awareness Accessibility Age Price MTBF Promo Budget Sales Budget Demand Raw Score Bonus After Aware After Access After Credit

Not Penalty 0.00 0.00 0 #N/A 0.00

? Dec. Customer Score Inactive Pos. Score Price Score Age Score MTBF Score After TQM
Developed 7.7 12.3 17% #N/A 1.00 $1.00 0 $5.00 $5.00
100.0% 0.00 Demand Penalty! 26.97 60.80 0
Total Quality Management (TQM) Investment Structure
Round 4

Round 5

Round 6
Round 7 & 8
[1] Scott:
You need to enter how many enemy products are in the market. You can see this before they are
introduced if you scan the Courier carefully! See what level they are introducing the product at, and go
from there! Otherwise, this will remain at 5 the entire time, and your suggested Production Values will be
off significantly.

[2] Scott:
Don't change this field. If you want to adjust the score, you can use decimal points for number of products
in the previous column.

[3] Scott:
FAST SWAP simply exchanges the values from your Revised Performance, Size, MTBF, and Age - and
then transfers to your Current columns. You still need to get the rest from your Courier to avoid rounding
errors.

[4] Scott:
Accounts Receivable Lag. Will affect your CS, but with a capital tradeoff. I think it's worth going to 45 (and
later 60).

[5] Scott:
Check out the TQM tab for instructions on how much to invest into each round. Highly recommended.

[6] Scott:
Those are drop-down boxes on the left. Choose your segment, and make sure everything matches
PERFECTLY to avoid error.

[7] Scott:
Current side is on the left, and that is what you begin each round with. Revised is what you plan to change
it to!

[8] Scott:
Click the arrow to choose which Segment you want to sell your sensor in. Not Developed is for products
you may, or may not, introduce later. Change those to the desired segment, and turn on the New box.

[9] Scott:
Only check the box for products introduced later than Round 0. Your initial products are not New.
UNCHECK when you move to next round!!!

[10] Scott:
Current Performance.

[11] Scott:
Be careful to enter this in the required format. Day first! Then month, and year.

[12] Scott:
Scott:
Be careful to enter this in the required format. Day first! Then month, and year.

[13] Scott:
Scott:
Be careful to enter this in the required format. Day first! Then month, and year.

[14] Scott:
If you choose a dollar amount outside the range, you will receive a penalty.
[15] Scott:
Enter the most current Awareness from your Courier. Do not rely on my predictions to carry over!

[16] Scott:
Scott:
Enter the most current Accessibility from your Courier. Do not rely on my predictions to carry over!

[17] Scott:
Invest, invest, invest. There are hidden bonuses associated with these categories. Accessibility covers
your entire segment, while Awareness is an individual product deal.

[18] Sir Lancelot: This is Production + Inventory and is NOT the upper limit of possibility to what you could
sell. Go with what feels right!

[19] Scott:
It's not on this sheet, but you should invest your Trad and Low's Automation up quickly, no matter the
upfront cost.