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Abstract: Coastal region of the Tamil Nadu State in the southern part of the Indian peninsula are potentially
vulnerable to multiple hazards. The present study therefore is an attempt to develop a coastal vulnerability index
(CVI) for the Northern coast or the Coramandal coast of Tamil Nadu using nine relative risk variables. Most of these
parameters are dynamic in nature and require a large amount of data from various sources viz., data from satellite
imageries; in situ measurements and from numerical models. Zones of vulnerability to coastal natural hazards of
different magnitude (high, medium, and low) are identified and shown on a map. In the present study in addition to
coastal regional elevation, bathymetry, shoreline change rate, geomorphology, tidal range, sea level rise, mean wave
height; tsunami run-up and extreme storm surges have been considered as additional risk parameters to calculate the
CVI. Delft 3D numerical model is used to generate the storm surge for the 50-year return period cyclones. The map
prepared for the Northern Tamil Nadu coast under this study can be used by the state and district administration
involved in the disaster mitigation and management plan.
Keywords: Coastal vulnerability index, Storm surge, Delft 3D, numerical model, Tamil Nadu
to assess the coastal vulnerability due to the effect of sea West coast of India. Nageswara Rao et al. (2008)
level rise. Coastal slope, geomorphology, relative sea- calculated CVI arising from sea-level rise by taking the
level rise rate, shoreline change rate, mean tidal range summation of the variables considered with the ranks of
and mean wave height were the main parameters used each multiplied by their corresponding weights for
by Thieler and Hammer-Klose (1999) for assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast. The major limitation in case of
coastal vulnerability of the US Atlantic coast. The result most vulnerability assessments is that the weightage are
showed that 26% is of very high vulnerability, 22% is of
high vulnerability, 24% of the coast is of moderate on the physical characteristics of vulnerability with little
vulnerability, and 28% of the U.S. Atlantic coast is of inclusion of socio-economic aspects. Disasters do not
low vulnerability. The CVI developed by the United become catastrophes until lives are affected and hence
States Geological Survey (Gornitz and Kanciruk 1989, the addition of socioeconomic data is essential for
Gornitz 1991, Thieler and Hammer-Klose 2000) is overall understanding of the vulnerability of a region.
based on the geomorphology, coastal slope, relative sea- Hughes and Brundrit (1992) used location,
level rise, shoreline erosion/accretion, mean tidal range infrastructure (economic value) and hazard as variables
and mean wave height. Bryan et al. (2001) used GIS to for assessing vulnerability of the South African coast.
determine vulnerability due to inundation and erosion Yamada et al (1995) developed a sustainable capacity
along the portion of the South Australian coast. Belperio index (SCI) for South Pacific coast by analyzing
et al. (2001) considered exposure, elevation, aspect, and vulnerability and resilience of natural, cultural,
slope for assessing the coastal vulnerability to sea-level institutional, infrastructural, economic and human
rise. To classify building vulnerability a new tsunami factors. The overall Coastal Social Vulnerability score
vulnerability assessment method was applied Dominey- (CSoVI) by Boruff et al. (2005) considered socio-
Howes and Papathoma (2003) by taking the worse case economic variables for the coast of USA. Willroth et al.
of the tsunami scenario, for two coastal villages in the (2012) studied the socio-economic vulnerability of
Gulf of Corinth, Greece. Pendleton, et al. (2005) coastal communities in southern Thailand and also
assessed the coastal vulnerability of Golden Gate discussed that social networks played a crucial role in
National Recreation area to sea level rise by calculating coping with the disaster. One of the major hurdles in
a CVI. inclusion of the socio-economic data of the region is the
In the Indian context Dinesh Kumar (2006) using sea lack of proper database. The result of this analysis
level rise, erosion, inundation study, potential includes identification of vulnerable units based on
vulnerability implications of climate-induced sea level geological-physical parameters; demarcation of the
rise for the coastal zone of Cochin, southwest coast of priority regions to include the socioeconomic
India. Data from shoreline displacement, tide, waves parameters can be later in order to aid in regional
and elevation were used to investigate the hazard line assessment and to provide suitable information for
along Indian coast Rajawat et al. (2006). For the Udupi planning preventive measures. The present research
coastal zone of Karnataka, Dwarakish et al. (2009) study was taken up to evaluate the CVI of the Northern
calculated CVI using the physical parameters like shore- Tamil Nadu coastal regions in the context of storm
line change rate, sea-level change rate, coastal slope, surge hazard using vulnerability parameters such as
mean tidal range, coastal geomorphology. Srinivasa shoreline change rate, sea level change rate, significant
Kumar et al. (2010) assessed the CVI for the Orissa, wave height, coastal slope, Tidal range, coastal regional
India coast using the physical parameters and also elevation, coastal geomorphology, tsunami run up,
included tsunami run-up. The multi-hazard vulnerability maximum storm surge height during the return period
along the coast of Cuddalore Villupuram was assessed and the CVI is calculated by the method followed by
by Mahendra et al. (2011) by incorporating probability Thieler and Hammar-Klose (2000).
of maximum storm surge height during the return
2. Study area:
period, with the other the physical parameters . Kumar
et al. (2012) did a vulnerability assessment using geo- Tamil Nadu state located in the Southern coast of India
spatial technologies for the Chennai coast. is a maritime state with immense potential in natural
In majority of the studies the CVI is expressed as the
square root of the product of the ranking factors divided
by the number of parameters considered (Thieler and covers an area of 136,058 sq. km and has a total
Hammar-Klose, 2000). However, Hegde and Reju population of 62.11 million as per the 2001 census. The
(2007) have used the sum of the value of each variable present study area is the Northern coast of Tamil Nadu
such as geomorphology, regional coastal slope, covering six coastal districts, viz., Thiruvallur, Chennai,
shoreline change rates, and population divided by Kancheepuram, Villupuram, Cuddalore and
number of variables to develop CVI for Mangalore, Nagapattinam spanning a coastline of 376.8 km (Figure
1). Ecologically important coastal area identified in the
study area is the brackish water lagoon, the Puilcat total number of variables. The method of computing the
Lake; extensive mangrove forest and wetland, the CVI in the present study is similar to that used by
Pichavarm, Vedaranyam and Muthupettai (Figure 1). Thieler and Hammer-Klose (1999), in addition to the six
The coast is also vulnerable to multiple disasters such as parameters the present study uses an additional process
tropical cyclones, storm surges, and tsunamis. The risk variable i.e., coastal regional elevation, tsunami run-up
to the coastal population to such hazards has increased and maximum storm surge height during the 50-year
many folds with the growing population. A total of 87 return period. This method uses a rating system that
storms crossed the Tamil Nadu state coast during 1891- classifies the coastal area based on degree of
2012. Out of which 88.89% crossed the Northern Tamil vulnerability as low, medium, and high according to the
Nadu coast (Pradeep et al., 2014). Erosion has now CVI value of that area. The nine relative risk variables
become a more recurrent phenomenon. Identification of used are shoreline change rate, sea-level change rate,
vulnerable areas and effective risk mapping and coastal slope, mean significant wave height, mean tidal
assessment is the certainly required to minimize the range, coastal regional elevation, coastal
damage. geomorphology, tsunami run up and storm surge
height. Most of these parameters are dynamic in nature
that has to be acquired from different sources (Table 1).
They are derived from remote sensing, GIS, and
numerical model data. The importance of each of the
considered parameters and the procedure to generate the
same for use in assessment of CVI are given in the
following section.
Table 1: Data used for the study on coastal hazard
Period/
Parameter Data Used Resolution
Details
LANDSAT
30m 1988
Shore-line TM
change rate LANDSAT
15m 2014
8
Third Assessment Report of
Sea level
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
change rate
Change (Church et al., 2001)
Significant
Sanil Kumar et al., (2006)
wave height
Nautical charts published by the
Tidal Range National Hydrographic Office
(NHO), Dehradun, India
GEBCO 900m
Coastal slope NA
data (approx)
Coastal
regional SRTM data 90m NA
elevation
Figure 1: Study area Coastal
LANDSAT
geomorpholo 15m 2014
3. Methodology: 8
gy
The CVI allows the variables to be related in a Tsunami run
Field survey (Ilangovan et al. (2005)
quantifiable manner that expresses the relative up
vulnerability of the coast to physical changes occurring Delft 3D 50 yr
along the coast. This method yields numerical data that Storm surge Numerical 900 m return
cannot be equated directly with particular physical model period
effects. It does, however, highlight areas with respect to
the particular hazard may be the greatest. Each section 3.1. Shoreline Change Rate:
of the coastline is assigned a risk rate for each specific
data variable. The CVI is calculated as the square root Near-shore circulation, sediment characteristics, beach
of the product of the ranked variables divided by the form are dependent on the wave characteristics along
the shoreline. These are the major coastal processes substitute for wave energy, which drives coastal
which make the coastal shorelines to change over a sediment transport. Wave energy increases as the square
period of time. From the coastal vulnerability point of of the wave height; thus the ability to mobilize and
view, coastal erosion will be considered as more transport beach/coastal materials is a function of wave
vulnerable because of the resultant loss of beaches, height (USGS, 2001).Those coastal areas of high wave
dunes, and marshes; whereas areas of accretion will be height are considered as more vulnerable coasts and
considered as less vulnerable areas as the coast move vice versa. For the present study, wave height data
towards the ocean. Erosion reduces the distance reported by Sanil Kumar et al., (2006) is utilized and
between coastal population and ocean, thereby risk rating is assigned to study area.
increasing the risk to coastal hazards. Landsat TM and
3.4. Tidal Range:
Landsat 8 images covering the Northern Tamil Nadu
coastline for the years 1988 and 2014 were downloaded Tidal range is defined as the vertical difference (in
from USGS Earth Explorer website meters) between the highest high tide and the lowest
(http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/). The data have been low tide. Tides are the rise and fall of sea levels forced
projected to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) by the combined effects of the gravitational forces
projection system with WGS-84 datum. Using the on- exerted by the Moon and the Sun and the rotation of the
screen point mode in ArcMap 10 software the shoreline Earth. Tides are periodic and highly predictable. In the
was used to digitized. The near infrared band that is current study, tide data from nautical charts published
most suitable for the demarcation of the land water by the National Hydrographic Office (NHO), Dehradun,
boundary has been used to extract the shoreline. Digital India is taken as the base data and risk rates are
Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) downloaded from assigned.
USGS site (Thieler, E.R et al., 2009) was used to
3.5. Coastal Slope:
calculate the rate of shoreline change. The vector format
of the shoreline for the years 1988 and 2014 were used The ratio of the altitude change to the horizontal
as the input. The rate of shoreline change is calculated distance between any two points on the coast is called as
for the entire study area, and risk ratings are assigned. coastal slope. A coastal region with a higher slope value
indicates a steeper slope and vice versa. Coastal
3.2. Sea-Level Change Rate:
flooding i.e. inundation of the region is depended on the
The height of the sea averaged over a period of time, slope. Coastal slope feature is a significant factor in
long enough that fluctuations caused by waves and tides deciding the degree to which coastal land is at risk of
are largely removed is called as the Mean sea level flooding from tsunami and storm surges. Gentle land
(MSL) at the coast. The MSL is with respect to a local slope allows the seawater to penetrate to a greater extent
land benchmark. A relative sea-level change is the while coastal locations having steep slope do not allow
changes in MSL as measured by tide gauges (Church et inundation (Klein, Reese, and Sterr, 2000). Thus coastal
al., 2001). The serious impact upon the natural areas having steep slope were considered as low
environment and socio-economic conditions in the vulnerable areas and areas of gentle slope as areas of
coastal zone due to the raise of Sea-level is the high vulnerability. General Bathymetric Chart of the
permanent inundation of coastal areas. It can accelerate Oceans (GEBCO) data of approximately 900m grid
the coastal erosion since more land is submerged under resolution coastal topography and bathymetry has been
the sea. It also aids in storm and tsunami waves to used to get the slope of the coastal area. The slope
penetrate deep into the land. Coasts subjected to a high values in degrees are calculated and risk ratings are
rate of sea-level rise are considered as a high vulnerable assigned.
area and vice versa. For the present study, mean relative
3.6. Coastal Regional Elevation:
sea-level data reported in the Third Assessment Report
of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Regional elevation is referred to as the average
(Church et al., 2001) is utilized and risk rating is elevation of a particular area above mean sea level. To
assigned to study area. estimate the extent of land area threatened by coastal
flooding coastal regional elevation detail is vital.
3.3. Significant Wave Height:
Coastal regions having high elevation will more
The wind parameters are responsible for generating the resistance for inundation against the rising sea level,
heights of the waves (Ashok Kumar, Raju and Sanil tsunami run-up, and storm surge. Thus from the
Kumar, 2005). Wave height is the average height vulnerability point of view, coastal regions having low
(trough to crest) of the one-third highest waves valid for elevation will be considered as high vulnerable areas. In
the indicated 12-hour period. Wave heights are used to the present study, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
demarcate the vulnerability line all along the coast. (SRTM) 90-m resolution data are used to derive the
Mean significant wave height is used here as a
coastal regional elevation. The risk rates are assigned to coastal areas. Storm surge is accountable for 90% of the
the entire coastline based on the elevation values. threat (NDMG, 2008). The storm surge height depends
on the near shore coastal bathymetry, the pressure
3.7. Coastal Geomorphology:
The geomorphology variable expresses the relative pressure, wind speed (Murty et al., 1986 and Siddiqui
erodibility of different landform types. Basic Z.A., 2009). Storm surges have claimed high number of
understanding of the coastal environment can be lives along the East coast of India (Pradeep et al., 2014).
understood upon studying the coastal geomorphology. If these storm surges could be forecasted well in
Rising sea level will bring about the redistribution of advance, loss of several lives could be reduced. Das P.K
coastal landforms comprising sub tidal bed forms, (1972) first developed a Numerical storm surge
intertidal flats, salt marshes, shingle banks, sand dunes, modeling for the Bay of Bengal region. Later several
cliffs, and coastal lowlands (Pethick and Crooks, 2000). studies were attempted to forecast storm surges which
The coastal geomorphic classes were extracted based on have been broadly reviewed by (Murty et al., 1986). In
the visual interpretation keys using the on-screen the present study DELFT 3D FLOW an open source
digitization technique. Landsat 8 satellite image dated hydrodynamic model, a widely used to model storm
18-04-2014 have been used to extract the coastal surges (Vatvani D.K., et al., 2002, Vatvani D.K., et al
geomorphology. The satellite data were geo-corrected 2012, Nguyen Tho Sao, 2008, Riyaz Khan N.H et al.,
using the reference image and projected to the UTM 2014) is adopted for the simulation. GEBCO
projection system. The coastline geomorphology has bathymetric data, synthesized cyclone tracks and
been classified based on the dominant geomorphic class. statistical projections for 50 year return period cyclone
Further, these geomorphic classes were assigned the risk for Tamil Nadu coast are obtained from are Indu Jain et.
rating as high vulnerable (barrier beaches, sandy al., (2010) were used as input in the model. The storm
beaches, deltas, mangroves, mud flats, estuary, lagoon, surge depends upon the intensity, pressure drop, angle
back water), medium vulnerable (low cliffs, beach to the coast of the cyclone. The risks along the coast can
ridges, beach vegetation), and low vulnerable (cliffs, be accessed from obtained from extreme storm surges.
uplands, rocky coasts and inundated coasts). Based on the run-up estimated along the entire study
area, the risk ratings are assigned.
3.8. Tsunami Arrival Height:
4.0. RESULTS:
Tsunamis result in generation of waves of different
periods and height triggered by underwater earthquake 4.1. Calculation of CVI:
or landslide. These wave parameters depend on
The CVI is a mathematical formula that relates the
earthquake parameters, bathymetry, beach profile,
different types of data to each other to calculate an
coastal land topography. The December 26th 2004,
index value. This method yields numerical data that
Indian Ocean tsunami was one of the deadliest natural
cannot be directly equated with particular physical
disasters in modern times. Many countries bordering the
effects. Each of the nine input relative risk variables are
Indian Ocean were severely affected. In India, Tamil
assigned appropriate risk classes 1, 2, and 3 based on its
Nadu coast had the highest number of fatalities. In
ability to cause low, medium and high damage,
Tamil Nadu 7,965 people lost their lives (Sheth et al.
respectively, for the coastline. The risk rating assigned
2006). In the current study, the 2004 Indian Ocean
for each variable is given in Table 2. Once each section
tsunami with a magnitude of 9.1 9.3 earthquake in the
of coastline is assigned a risk value based on each
Sunda Arc (Stein and Okal 2005; Lay et al. 2005) zone
specific data variable, the coastal vulnerability index is
has been considered to cause the worst-case tsunami
calculated as the square root of the geometric mean, or
scenario for the Northern Tamil Nadu coast. Based on
the square root of the product of the ranked variables
the run-up reported in Ilangovan et al. (2005) along the
divided by the total number of variables as
entire study area, the risk ratings are assigned. Field
survey was carried out from January 15 to February 7, CVI (a * b * c * d * e * f * g * h * i ) / 9 (1)
2005, by the National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) Where,
along the Northern Tamil Nadu coast (Vedaranyam to a = risk rating assigned to shoreline-change rate
Pulicat). The survey was based on the UNESCO IOC b = risk rating assigned to sea-level change rate
(1998) guidelines; run-up heights normalized to the c = risk rating assigned to significant wave height
Indian Chart datum of the tsunami were measured. d = risk rating assigned to tidal range
3.9. Extreme storm surges and return periods: e = risk rating assigned to coastal slope
f = risk rating assigned to coastal regional elevation
Tropical cyclones accompanied by storm surges cause g = risk rating assigned to coastal geomorphology
threat to coastal communities. They turn into severe h = risk rating assigned to tsunami run-up
hazards or disasters when they strike densely populated i = risk rating assigned to extreme storm surges.
obtained from the nautical charts for Pulicat, Pichavaram, Vedaranyam and Point Calimere have well
Nagapattinam and Cuddalore is 0.6m, Port Nova and developed mangrove systems The 149 km of the
Pondicherry is 0.8m and for Chennai is 1m. Therefore a coastline comprised sandy beaches, deltas, spits,
high vulnerability has been assigned for the present mangroves, and mudflats that have a high risk rating.
study area (Figure 3D). About 202 km length of coastline comprising of
vegetated coasts and low cliffs have a medium risk
rating. About 25 km of coastline comprising of sand
dunes has a low risk rating (Figure 4G).
along the
Indian coast: observations and
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