7/9/2018 Democrat Mike Levin has initial edge in 49th Congressional District poll – Mike Levin for Congress

Democrat Mike Levin has initial edge in

49th Congressional District poll
Published by Mike Levin on July 9, 2018

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Democrat Mike Levin has initial edge in 49th Congressional District poll

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 6/9/18

Contact: Parke Skelton (626) 535-9616

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7/9/2018 Democrat Mike Levin has initial edge in 49th Congressional District poll – Mike Levin for Congress

Democrat Mike Levin has the early edge in California’s 49th Congressional District over Republican
Diane Harkey.  Levin initially leads Harkey by 44 percent to 41 percent, and by 49 percent to 46
percent when we include those who lean toward a candidate. 

The telephone survey was conducted June 24 through 27 by The Feldman Group, Inc., for the Levin
campaign and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.  The universe was voters who
participated in 2016 or in any election since then and screened for likely participation in the November
2018 election.  The base sample was 400 but the survey also included an oversample of 200 voters
who declined to state a party preference or are registered in a minor party.  The oversample was then
down weighted to re ect its correct proportion of the electorate.  The margin of error was +/- 4.6%.    

Even at this early stage, voters in the 49th CD are highly polarized with few who are both undecided
and without partisan leanings.  However, a total of 31 percent of voters are either undecided or
uncertain of their choice making early communication to Democrats and voters who decline to state a
party preference (DTS) imperative. Levin is well-known and well-liked among Democrats who
participated in June primary but less known among those who did not do so and less known among
DTS voters.  As both candidates have potential negatives, early communication to shore up Levin’s
base is imperative.

Voters are looking for a candidate to work across party lines on behalf of local interests (52 percent)
over a candidate who will shake up Washington and change Congress (36 percent).  Voters here also
do not want the election to be about President Donald Trump.  While 40 percent say their attitudes
toward Trump – on both sides – are the most important consideration in their decision, most do not
say so, including an even larger proportion of DTS voters.

Levin’s environmental record is an important positive for him.  Slowing climate change is a high
priority to Democratic and DTS voters and Levin has a longstanding commitment to environmental
issues.  Environmental issues are critical locally in this coastal district.  Additionally, both K-12 and
higher education issues and health care are on voters’ agenda.

Levin’s edge is likely to depend on turnout as much as on persuasion.  The 49th CD has a 5-point
Republican over Democratic advantage in registration.  Levin is carrying DTS voters, and especially
younger DTS voters who lean Democratic.  Their level of participation and that of the district’s small
communities of color will be important in maintaining the Levin edge.

Categories: CAMPAIGN

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7/9/2018 Democrat Mike Levin has initial edge in 49th Congressional District poll – Mike Levin for Congress

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