7 Ways To Profit

7 Ways to Profit From Football Trading
Introduction
Here, you’ll find a collection of some of the best football
strategies which you can use season –in and season-out.
These football strategies are all “niche betting strategies?
What is niche betting?
Niche betting is the focus on a specific area of a betting
market, such as the over/under 2.5 goals market or even
the First half or second half of a football match.
I have found that a long-term focus on one specific niche
area can give you an advantage over others who do not fo-
cus on that market to the extent that you may focus on it.
I hope you’ll enjoy these strategies. If you want to take your
football betting to a new level, then join my www.drt.club,
whose focus is low-risk, high-reward football betting and
trading.
Clive Keeling
© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 1

Free Software to Boost Your

Football Profits
T his is a superb piece of free software which helps you
with your football research, soccer betting statistics and
analysis.
Oh and did I mention it was free? That’s right. The software
is free to download at www.soccerstat stracker.com.
The software contains information on a whopping 845
teams in 51 leagues, and its data mining facility can find you
stats on any betting market you care to look at.
I am currently using the software to create some betting
ideas specific to certain leagues in Europe. I also use the
software to look at niche betting markets.
Here’s an example… I want to look at the Top 10 teams in
the German Bundesliga who, when playing at home, have
the best record for winning at both half-time and at full-
time in their matches.
I can use these statistics for Half-time/Full-time niche bet-
ting.
Here’s how I would ask the software to look into the stats
for this niche market in the specific league I have chosen
(the German Bundesliga)…

In the ‘Betting Statistics – Query’ box I asked the software

to ‘Find the Top 10 teams from Bundelsiga that have more
than 50% occurrence in all games for betting game 45/90
(HT/FT) tip is Home-Home when they are playing at home
in season 2013/2013’ The English is a bit mangled there
but I hope you get the gist.
The result is impressive. The software tells me that
Monchengladbach have won four home matches, leading at
both half-time and full-time this season alone.
The half-time results are shown above, along with the full-
time results.
The software also points to Dortmund as a team who could
be backed in the Half-time/Full-time betting market when
playing at home. They too have won four matches this sea-
son, leading at half-time and at full-time (see below).

Soccerstats Tracker allows you to query the following bet-

ting markets:
»» Half-time match odds market
»» Full-time match odds market
»» Half-time/Full-time (as you see with the above exam-
ple)
»» Under/over 2.5 Goals market
»» Total Goals market
»» More goals (e.g. more goals in the first half or second
half)
»» Goal/No goal (better known as the Both Teams to Score
market)
»» Even/odd – will there be an even or odd number of
goals at full-time?
»» Handicap markets (ideal for Asian Handicap betting)
»» Exact Score markets (also known as the Correct Score
markets)
»» Double Chance market (a bet favoured by some book-
makers, for example coupling the win and draw as a 1X,
or the home win/away win (12)).
»» Half-time Goals markets (such as the Over/Under 0.5
Goals and Over/Under 1.5 Goals markets as featured at
www.betfair.com)
These are some of the key betting markets which are fea-
tured within a typical in-play football match at www.betfair.
com and with in-play bookmakers, so the potential for using
these statistics is limitless.
I hope you’re as excited as me by this: we have to not only
focus on a specific league, but also only on a number of re-

ally niche betting markets.

Here’s a list of some of the markets I will be using Soccer-
stats Tracker on over the coming season (and make sure
you follow me at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk where
I’ll be sharing my findings using this software)…
Half-time Score market
I like the Half-time Score market. The odds for laying the
0-0 in this market are shorter than the Correct Score mar-
ket (for full-time) and there is a nice niche market in laying
said 0-0.
This is something I have written about before as a great
market to focus on. Now Soccerstats Tracker can enable us
to highlight the best teams at scoring goals before half-time.
I have asked the software in this instance to list for me the
best Premier League teams this season who tend to have at
least one goal scored before half-time. My intention is to use
the results to lay the 0-0 score line in the Half-time Score
market.
I would now make a note when any of these listed teams

are playing each other, and look at laying the 0-0 score line
in the Half-time Score market. Soccerstats Tracker tells me
that these teams tend to see at least a goal before half-time
in a vast majority of their matches this season.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals market
The Soccerstats Tracker can immediately highlight the best
teams in a specific league for bringing in Over 2.5 Goals bets
(where three goals or more have been scored). For instance,
I asked Soccerstats Tracker to list for me any team whose
matches finished over 2.5 goals, 70% or more of the time.
The only team listed is Manchester City, and the stats show
me that on seven occasions, Manchester City matches have
seen a total of four goals or more. As you can see, this is
useful information to ‘go to war with’.
In which half are there more goals?
Soccerstats Tracker tells me that in seven of Sunderland’s
11 matches this season, there have been more goals in the
second half. This is worth knowing for in-play traders or
correct score layers at half-time.
Both Teams to Score market
The Both Teams to Score market is a real niche market,
and the Soccerstats Tracker can immediately highlight the
teams who have shown a very recent pattern for scoring
and conceding.
For example, the software immediately highlights Manches-
ter United and Arsenal as having the most matches for both
teams scoring.
This software allows you to be creative and allows you to

instantly see the key statistics in any number of betting

markets.
One final great use for the Soccerstats Tracker is its ‘Current
Sequences’ feature. This feature allows you to find the best
teams with the best sequences in any number of markets.
I like to use this feature to highlight teams with standout
streaks. Manchester City, for instance, have had seven con-
secutive matches without a 0-0 at half-time. They have also
won their last five home matches. Manchester United, on
the other hand, are on a three-match winning run at win-
ning at both half-time and full-time. This is a sequence I feel
could end soon, as it is awfully hard to continue winning at
half-time and full-time in the Premiership. Perhaps begin
laying Manchester United in this market beginning with
their next match?
Bottom line…
This is free software and is quite superb in its depth of cov-
erage and quality. Do make sure you read my posts at www.
whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, where I’ll be highlighting for
you the best stats at the weekend, the strongest sequences,
and some novelty betting ideas, all based around the find-
ings using this superb software.

THE PATRIARCH PRESENTS:
How to Use Soccerstats.com to

Boost Your Winnings
The Patriarch is one of the regular contributors to What Re-
ally wins Money and he has a great collection of vintage bet-
ting systems and bang-up-to-date ideas which he shares with
readers each month
T his month, The Patriarch treads a familiar path – that

path being soccer stats. He’s found a great method for
easily uncovering correct scores and over/under 2.5 goals
bets.
The key to success...
On now to this new football approach that I found on the
Internet and which I have adapted. I understand from
reports that it has been doing quite well. I like it for a num-
ber of reasons. It’s versatile – in that you can use it just to
forecast results, or perhaps, over and under goals scored
bets, or correct score bets: it does all of these. Next, it seems
to me to be based on sound common sense; logic; statistics
(whatever you wish to call it). And finally, it’s easy to use
and it’s free. If that’s not enough, there is something else. It
can be used for practically any football match in the world.
So, if you have an inclination to bet on a Mexican match or
one in Korea, then this is the system for you. For my own
part, I feel very conservative in having tried it only on the
Premier League in England. I’ve often wondered though, if
there is an edge to be gained by becoming well informed on,
let’s say, Korean football, in the expectation that you might

well have more information than the odds compiler who’s

supplying the odds for the games. It’s just a passing thought
for anyone who likes to think outside the box.
Right – the site we’ll be using for our system is called soccer
stats: www.soccerstats.com.
The page that comes up has a string of tiny flags along the
top for all the countries, but we’ll click on the George Cross
and ‘En’. That gives us the English Premier League. For the
other George Cross flags that are numbered, you get the
other English leagues. Before going on to explain what we
do when we have that Premier League page up, I’ll give
my view on what we are trying to do. I realise I’m stating
the obvious, but every match result depends on how many
goals the home team scores and concedes and also how
many goals the away team scores and concedes. If we have
average figures for all four of these factors, then you would
imagine that we have a sound basis for making a forecast.
That’s what this system does. For our first example, we are
going to imagine a local Manchester derby with Man Utd at
home. On the Premier League page we’ll click on Man Utd
at the top of the league, and up will come a page of informa-
tion relating to them.
At the right-hand side of the page there is a heading called
‘ranking’ and underneath that, ‘streaks’ and ‘scoring’. It’s
this ‘scoring’ column that we are interested in (I have ar-
rowed it in the screenshot below).

As they are at home, we look at the ‘home’ column for the

average goals scored and conceded. The figures are respec-
tively 2.6 and 1.00. As our hypothetical example is between
Manchester United at home and Manchester City away, we
can see both teams’ stats on the one page by using the ‘H2H’
function at www.soccerstats.com. This ‘H2H’ function is ar-
rowed below:

From the drop down boxes select the home team in the left
column and the away team in the right column.
Scroll down to the ‘scoring’ section for both sides:
For Manchester City, we are looking for the average goals

scored and conceded, but this time in the second column,
the ‘away’ one.
Here is a close-up of the ‘scoring’ stats for both sides:
Again, respectively the figures are 1.33 and 1.00. Now

comes the counting part, and you’ll see how it makes sense.
We add together the goals Man Utd scored and the goals
that City conceded. That is 2.60 plus 1.00, making 3.60. We
divide this by 2, to give us the number of goals we think

Man Utd will score, which is 1.80, which gets rounded up

to 2. We now do the same thing for City, which is 1.33 plus
1.00, making 2.33. We divide this by 2 to give us the number
of goals we think City will score, which is 1.17, which gets
rounded down to 1. So our forecast for the game is a home
win, a correct score of 2-1, and a bet of over 2.5 goals. It
would be too good if all three turned out to be correct.
I’ll now give a real-life example from the weekend of 9/10
March to show how everything doesn’t always go accord-
ing to plan. The match is Liverpool v Tottenham. The fig-
ures for Liverpool were: goals scored 1.93 and conceded
0.86. For Tottenham away, the figures were 1.93 and 1.36.
We add Liverpool’s 1.93 to Tottenham’s 1.36 and get 3.29,
divided by 2 is 1.64, rounded up to 2. We take Tottenham’s
goals scored of 1.93 and add to Liverpool’s conceded of 0.86
giving 2.79. Divide by 2 to get 1.39, rounded down to 1. We
have therefore a Liverpool win of 2-1, and an over 2.5 goals
bet. The actual result was a Liverpool win of 3-2. So, we had
the result correct and the over 2.5 goals right, but not this
time the correct score.
In case I haven’t made it clear about rounding up or down,
it’s simply a case of over 0.5 goes up and under 0.5 gets
rounded down. If it’s exactly 0.5, I’ll leave it up to you!

FOOTBALL TRADING
Introducing The HSA Technique:

An Easy to Use Low-Risk High-
Reward Football Trading Method
Irun a football research and live trading service called
Delay-React-Trade – or ‘DRT’ for short you joing it here:
www.drt.club/get-instant-access
The purpose of this service is a simple one…
We look to create great betting and trading opportunities
in in-play football matches at www.betfair.com, which are
characterised as low-risk and high-reward. In essence, we
look to back teams and outcomes at high odds, and we look
to lay teams and outcomes at short odds.
Here’s an excellent trading technique which follows this
low-risk/high-reward ethos, which you can put to use im-
mediately (or join DRT – www.drt.club/get-instant-access/
– and let me do all of the work for you!).
I call it ‘the HSA Trading Technique’ (Half-time Score
Away)…
The rules are simple to follow and implement.
Step 1 – Make sure you are using football matches whose
betting markets go in-play at www.betfair.com. The coupon
will be entitled ‘Football In-Play Coupon’:

We need the betting markets to go in-play.

Odds change when events change (goals, red cards, even a
lack of goals) as a football match is being played.
Step 2 – Wait for the match to go in-play and look out for the
following scorelines: either a 0-2 or a 0-3 to the away side.
We want this scoreline to occur early in the match, prefer-
ably before half-time.
A 0-2 or 0-3 scoreline at half-time, to the away side, pro-
vides us with an ideal opportunity for a low-risk high-re-
ward trade.
Why? Home teams have a distinct advantage. The support
is naturally on their side. The referees tend to be subcon-
sciously biased in favour of the home team, simply down
to the ‘voice of the home crowd’. And if the home side was
the original favourite in the match, then so much the better.
This 0-2/0-3 scoreline is a shock, and an early shock.
But the match is not over!
As the scoreline has appeared so early, this provides ample
time for the home team to regain parity. A half-time break
can also bring with it great advantages for a comeback – a

change in tactics, the old ‘hairdryer’ treatment from the

manager, and a renewed vigour to fight back for the second
half in front of home supporters.
Step 3 – Back the home team (losing 0-2 or 0-3) at enhanced
odds. The odds you’ll be getting for a home team when 0-2
or 0-3 down is far higher than you’ll have gotten (quite ob-
viously) pre-match.
Here’s an example.
This is the Algarve Cup, a women’s international football
tournament, and this match is between USA ladies and Den-
mark ladies.
Background – The USA are 1.24 shots to win this match,
i.e. they are extremely short-priced favourites indeed. This
would be an ideal scenario for this football trading strategy
(any odds-on team pre-match would be ideal). An odds-on
team at www.betfair.com is a team whose odds are 2.00
(decimal odds) or below at kick-off.
The match – How did this match progress? Not too good for
the Americans, it would seem. I think they must have picked
Barbara Bush to play as a goalkeeper, as the Denmark ladies
lead 0-3 at half-time:
The scoreline in brackets is the half-time scoreline (0-3 to

Denmark Women). I have blanked out the full-time scoreline.

My interest is piqued at this stage! The USA Women, along

with the German Women, are the international powerhous-
es of ladies’ football. A 0-3 scoreline at half-time affords the
USA a half-time team-talk in order to change tactics, and a
further 45 minutes in which to remedy the situation.
The USA Women, 1.24 shots pre-match, are currently back-
able at odds of 27 at half-time. I decide to back the USA
Women with £25 and hope they act as a top women’s inter-
national side should act!
How does the second half progress? The USA ladies score
first in the second half to bring the scoreline back to 1-3:
USA women’s odds were 27 at half-time. In reaction to scor-

ing first in the second half, their odds reduce and provide
me with the first profitable opportunity…
In this article, I have taken screenshots from Fairbot, which
is Betfair Trading Software. This strategy can also be used
at www.betfair.com using their ‘cash out’ facility. Fairbot’s
‘greening up’ function provides an ideal tool for illustrating
the profit potential after each goal has been scored in the
second half.

Having backed USA Women at odds of 27, their odds reduce

in reaction to the goal. The figure in the green box repre-
sents the profit that can be achieved if I were to trade out
of my enhanced bet now (£19.08 – It will appear green on
your screen). I make a decision that there are 38 minutes
remaining in this second half, and USA Women are more
than capable of a fight back.
The Denmark Women do not quite read the script in this
match, and score next, making the scoreline 1-4
Let’s fast-forward to the critical scoreline in this second
half: the scoreline which will enable a good trading profit…
It’s the 68th minute of the game. The USA Women have
scored three goals to the Danish Women’s four goals.
It is here that my £25 half-time bet can be turned into a
decent profit (despite there being 22 minutes of this match
remaining).

How much can I make at this stage of the match? Let’s

return to the Fairbot ‘greening up’ box, which shows any
profit/loss at each stage of the match:
With the fight-back almost complete, I can now secure a

profit of £110. The market has reacted to the USA Women
closing the gap to one goal by shortening their half-time
odds of 27 all the way down to 4.8.
What was the final score? When you trade in-play it is what
happens during a football match which matters – not neces-
sarily the final score.
If you look below, you’ll see how the match progressed from
beginning to end:
In hindsight, it was fortunate that I profited when the score-

line was 3-4, instead of holding out for a ‘potential’ bigger
profit – it had potential but was a profit not yet realised.
This is an important lesson if you consider trading.

Other examples – This is not an isolated incident. There

have been two other matches recently which followed this
template to the letter, only on this occasion the teams were
0-2 down early on in the match and were leading during the
match, or actually won!
Look at the match below, featuring Hibernian FC and Moth-
erwell. It meets all of the criteria I look for, for this niche
trading strategy:
✓✓ Hibernian are playing at home.
✓✓ The away side Motherwell take an early 0-2 lead.
✓✓ Hibernian score the next goal and two more in the sec-
ond half.
Note in this example that we do not necessarily wait until
half-time before backing the home team at enhanced odds.
The key here is that the home side are 0-2 or 0-3 down
early in the match.
Remember that I said it is what happens as a match is in-

play that is important to us, and not necessarily the final
score. In this example, Hibernian actually led the match
3-2. It was at this stage that the maximum profit could have
been extracted from this trade, as Hibernian’s odds would

have reduced dramatically from their position earlier in the

match when they were losing 0-2.
And on the same day...
We travel to the French Ligue 1 for this particular example
of the strategy in action, and in this case, a team we could
have backed at odds of 25, who go on to win the match. Tell
me: how often do you get the chance to back a team at odds
of 25 (24/1) and be in with an excellent chance of profiting
fully?
This match follows the criteria perfectly:
»» Toulouse are the home team, and they go 0-2 down to
away team Stade Reims at half-time.
»» Back Toulouse at half-time at odds of 25. Look at the
goal progression below. I personally traded out when
the scoreline reached 2-2 and Toulouse’s odds reduced
to 4.4 from a high of 25. Why didn’t I wait to see if they
could win? Quite simply, I cannot predict the future.
Why didn’t I wait to see if the USA Women would win,
when they were 3-4 up? In that match they actually
went on to lose the match. This could quite easily be the
scenario with Toulouse.
Here is the scoreline for this match:

Bottom line – This is an excellent niche. The most famous

example I suppose is that Liverpool Champions League
Final when they were trailing 0-3 to AC Milan.
Use the following checklist to find yourself teams at odds of
as high as 25/1 who have an excellent chance of profiting
for you:
»» Make sure any match you monitor is on the Betfair In-
play football coupon.
»» The home team should not be an obvious outsider (ide-
ally odds-on as the USA Women and Toulouse were).
»» The away team should take an early 0-2 or 0-3 lead. By
early, I generally mean before half-time or at half-time.
»» Back the home team at enhanced odds.
»» Trade out for a profit if the home team equalise or there
is a significant enough shift in the odds to allow a profit.
If you want to see this trading strategy and a number of
other profitable trading strategies making money, in real-
time, please take a trial with my Delay-
React-Trade (DRT) football trading service at:
www.drt.club/get-instant-access/.
The key to my trading success is to look for low-risk-high-
reward trades such as the HSA trading strategy showcased
here.

FOOTBALL BETTING
How to Profit by Placing a

Simple Half-Time Bet
R egular readers will be all too aware of my admiration
for the football statistics website www.soccerstats.com.
This season they have added another key stat that we can
profit from: it’s all to do with the first-half score.
We are going to be looking specifically at laying 0-0 in the
Half-Time Score market in in-play matches at www.betfair.
com.
To access the Half-Time Score market at www.betfair.com,
click on ‘Football’, and then scroll down to ‘Popular Cou-
pons’. Click on the in-play coupon for the day in question.
Once at the in-play coupon, select your match of choice.

Here I have chosen two recognisable teams in Swansea v
Liverpool. The menu on the left shows all of the betting
markets available for this match. We are interested in the
Half-Time Score market, and within that market the 0-0
score line, which we will be laying.

By laying 0-0, we want a goal to be scored by either side

before half-time.
The half-time score odds (arrowed above) show that 0-0

can be backed at odds of 3.1 and layed at odds of 3.15. If we
were looking to back and lay 0-0 in the traditional Correct
Score market, the odds available would be 11.5 and 12.
The Half-Time market 0-0 odds are nearly four times small-
er than those found in the Correct Score market.
Focus on the Half-Time 0-0 Correct Score because, for lay-
ers, the odds are nice and short and the reason the two
teams are playing is simple: they want to win, and the only
way they win is if they score a goal or goals!
Now head on over to www.soccerstats.com. One great ad-
dition to their fine statistics this season is the inclusion of
half-time scores and it is these that have opened up a whole
new niche betting market for us to exploit.

The half-time scores are found here:
This season, we see that Swansea have had only one 0-0 at
half-time against Spurs away from home. Liverpool have
scored all of their goals before half-time.
In this example only one of six matches played ended 0-0.
In order to improve the strike rate, look for the following:
»» Matches featuring two teams with a low percentage of
half-time 0-0 score lines and 90-minute 0-0 score lines.
»» Matches featuring teams who have a strong trend to-
wards over 2.5 goals.
»» Matches involving teams who score and concede regu-
larly.
»» Matches featured in leagues which have a reputation
for goals being scored. The Spanish La Liga and Dutch
Eredivisie and Jupiler leagues feature far more goals per
match than, say, the defensively-minded Greek and Ital-
ian leagues.
Space constraints prevent me from going in-depth into
these factors. Make sure, therefore, that you watch the ac-
companying video presentation at:
http://bit.ly/firsthalfprofits (you must be logged in to view
videos), which goes into far greater detail.

Minimise risk, maximise returns

As layers, in order to minimise our risk and maximise re-
turns, we want to lay at the shortest price we can get, whilst
still allowing time for our lay to be successful.
If the stats strongly point to two teams who overwhelm-
ingly seem to score or concede a goal before half-time, then
lay the 0-0 score line in the Half-Time Score market at the
beginning of the match. The odds will be slightly higher, but
you will have the luxury of 45 minutes of competitive foot-
ball for a goal to be scored.
For those seeking to lay the 0-0 score line at even shorter
odds, consider waiting for 20 minutes.
If after 20 minutes a goal has not been scored, we can usual-
ly lay 0-0 in the Half-Time Score market at very short odds.
Why do we choose the 20 minutes mark? It is a simple
balancing act. We must ‘buy’ ourselves some time for both
teams to score a goal, and entering the market after 20 min-
utes gives us a further 25 minutes in the first half for one
team to score that goal.
Bottom line – This niche strategy has only been made avail-
able thanks to the inclusion of half-time score line statistics
at www.soccerstats.com.
We can now exploit these half-time statistics by laying 0-0
in the Half-Time Score market either at the beginning of a
match (we have 45 minutes for a team to score a goal) or
after 20 minutes (we have 25 minutes for a team to score a
goal, but we are laying at very short odds).

I have done a video presentation (see the link on page 23),

providing you with some more tips and strategies to help
you exploit this niche Half-Time Score market at www.bet-
fair.com. Make sure you follow my tweets @whatreallywins
when I will alert you to the best 0-0 half-time lays.
Now let’s take a look at exploiting another niche...
Why Waiting Until the 85th

Minute Could Make Your
More Inplay Profits
There are two things I don’t mind being late for. The first is
my funeral, and the second is an in-play football match.
Let me show you why. I made £238 with a £2 stake on this
bet below – a bet I alerted my Twitter followers to – live as
it happened (join me @whatreallywins).
How was this achieved?

By waiting as late as possible during a match before deciding
to bet
Follow this step-by-step strategy to unearth these huge

potential returns:

1) Shortlist all short-priced favourites in the Betfair in-play

coupon.
2) Research (or better still check out the research I do for
What Really Wins Money subscribers for free at www.
whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk).
3) Wait until the 85th minute+ and see if there are any po-
tential betting opportunities.
So there we have it. An idea need not be a complicated one
for us to profit from it.
Let’s look at each step a little more closely...
1) Shortlist all short-priced favourites in the Betfair in-play
coupon. I will use the match in which I made that huge
profit for such a small stake as a template. In that Benfica
vs. Gil Vicente match, Benfica were 1.2 odds and playing at
home. Look for short-priced favourites priced at 1.4 and
lower in the Match Odds in-play coupon. It is vital that the
match allows us to bet in-play. The accompanying video
ensures you know exactly where to locate the Match Odds
in-play coupon at www.betfair.com.
2) Research. Research is not absolutely necessary. You could
simply have faith that the betting market is accurate in
determining that one team is a red-hot favourite and likely
to win with ease. BUT research is highly recommended. It
is neither as painful nor as time-consuming as you might
think, and doing basic research avoids what I call ‘betting
blind’. Betting blind is betting without checking whether a
significant team member is injured, whether the red-hot fa-
vourites have been in recent good form, or indeed whether

their opponents have been in recent good form. The accom-

panying video goes into greater length regarding how to
properly research.
The objective of the research is to justify the odds for the
short-priced favourite. Why? Because anything other than
a win for the red-hot favourites will be something we can
profit from. I have done a video presentation for you show-
ing you how to do basic research at two recommended free
sites: www.soccerway.com and www.soccerstats.com.
Using the Benfica v Gil Vicente match, I looked at head to
heads, which showed Benfica had scored 3-2-3-2-3-5 in the
last six meetings with Gil Vicente.
Benfica had also lost their opening match of the sea-
son. Considering that they had only lost one match in
2012/2013, it would be a great shock were they to lose this
match against Gil Vicente. A second consecutive defeat in
the first two matches of the season is tantamount to hand-
ing over the Portuguese League title to great rivals Porto
(who never lost a match during the 2012/2013 season).
If you want to do just the basic research then, look at head
to heads, and the last six matches for the red-hot favourites
and the opponents.
3) Wait until the 85th minute+ and see if there are any po-
tential betting opportunities. Why do we wait until the 85th
minute? Quite simply, we have a team’s urgent need to
salvage something if they are losing late on. We have the
knowledge that red-hot favourites tend to play until the
final whistle and never give in.

This delay tactic was perfectly suited to the featured match

between Benfica and Gil Vicente.
We are expecting total Benfica dominance. We are expecting
Benfica to win, as two consecutive defeats in their opening
two matches of the season would be catastrophic to their
league title aspirations.
Let’s look at the score line in this match and see if what
happens in-play mirrors not only our expectations, but also
the expectations of the betting market in asserting Benfica
as 1.2 favourites.
Gil Vicente took the lead in the 69th minute. This is most
unexpected. Benfica are still losing 0-1 in the 85th minute.
Remember our research? It indicated a Benfica team who:
»» Were totally dominant in previous meetings.
»» Had lost only once in the whole of the 2012/2013 sea-
son.
»» Had lost their opening match of this current season.
This is when our 85th minute+ betting niche kicks into gear.
The clock is ticking towards the 90th minute. It is time to

speculate on Benfica turning things around.

I waited until the 85th minute when I managed to back Ben-
fica at odds of 27. By waiting until after the 90th minute I
was able to back Benfica at odds of 120. Now these odds are
far more enticing than the measly 1.2 available before kick
off, aren’t they?
Notice how dramatically a red-hot favourite’s odds increase
as the clock ticks past the 85th and 90th minutes of a
90-minute match? It is this dramatic rise in the odds which
we are looking to exploit.
Benfica scored two goals in the 92nd and 93rd minutes to
salvage the win.
This is not an isolated incident. Here are some more exam-

ples just from this season alone (and only weeks into it)
following our three-step plan...
31 August 2013 Paris St Germain v Guincamp – Like Benfica,
Paris St Germain (PSG) were 1.2 at home. Research showed
that Guincamp are a newly-promoted side.

An unexpected 0-0 score line until the 85th minute. 1.2

shots PSG, playing at home, managed to score eventually in
the 90th minute.
14 September 2013 Barcelona v Sevilla – Barcelona are 1.19
shots to win this match. Research points to them winning
the last three meetings with Sevilla, scoring 2-3-2.
Look at what unfolded after the 89th minute:
Sevilla equalised in the 90th minute and Barcelona man-

aged to keep up their winning run against Sevilla with a late
winner.
18 August 2013 Real Madrid v Betis Sevilla – Real Madrid are
short-priced favourites at odds of 1.18. That’s our first step.
Note the red-hot favourite. The second step – research –

shows that Real Madrid have scored 6-4-3 in the last three
meetings with Betis at Real Madrid’s home stadium. Re-
search also showed Real Madrid were unbeaten last season
at home.
This is another match which is not following the script
when entering into the 85th minute. But then…
Real Madrid secure that win which their odds (1.18) and
our research suggested they would get.
These teams play until the final whistle with a belief that
they can extricate themselves from sticky situations. Now
you know how to profit from their tenacity.
Bottom line – This is another football niche where you can
unearth really big odds on teams who were expected to win
easily.
There are only three steps to follow. Note down very short-
priced favourites in the in-play coupon at www.betfair.com
or your chosen bookmaker. The matches must have the
facility to allow in-play betting.
Do some basic research. We are looking mostly at head to
heads and getting some confidence that this short-priced

favourite should win, and win easily.

Wait until the 85th minute, and back your red-hot favour-
ite as late as you possibly can if they are not winning the
match. You’ve seen the odds which can be achieved, and you
can see that the strong teams play on until the 90th minute
(and beyond!).
This seems to be a trait which prevails with teams who are
generally priced up as red-hot favourites week in and week
out.
Take advantage of my research at www.whatreally
winsmoney.co.uk and my alerts @whatreallywins on Twit-
ter, where I’ll alert you to these possible 85th-minute+ big-
odds punts. They occur more often than you might think!
Who knows? Maybe you’ll be emailing me with your own
120-odds winner?

FOOTBALL BETTING
Exploiting the Over 2.5 Goals

Football Niche
Here’s another niche football area in a more conventional
betting market: the very consistent Over 2.5 Goals market
strategy (note I said ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ and not ‘Over/Under
2.5 Goals’).
When backing in the Over 2.5 Goals market, we want there
to be three goals scored in total in the match in question.
It’s a fairly clear-cut bet, as you cannot have half a goal.
Here’s an example of an Over/Under 2.5 Goals market as
it appears at www.betfair.com (see below). Also, please do
view the accompanying video on the members’ section of
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, here’s the link:
http://bit.ly/2andhalf which will navigate you to the mar-
kets and the whole Over 2.5 Goals process.
I like Over 2.5 Goals bets (and any goals bets) because they

are what I term ‘neutral bets’. We are not siding with any
particular team. Rather, we have two teams working for us
rather than rooting for one team to the detriment of the
other.
Our job is to find matches where there is a greater likelihood
for both teams to score and concede, and thereby bring about
the three goals minimum which we require for success.
Here’s a great step-by-step plan you can use in order to find
matches where Over 2.5 Goals has a high possibility of com-
ing off.
1) Make a note of all in- play matches where Over 2.5 Goals
odds on Betfair are between 1.6 and 2.2. This will im-
mediately reduce the workload on, say a Saturday, when
there can be a full programme of ‘in-play’ matches.
2) Home team – there must have been a total of 7+ goals
scored in the home team’s last three home matches. Use
www.soccerway.com, as this site enables you to look at
home matches only, away matches only, and overall per-
formance. Here we’ll take a look at Arsenal:

Let’s add up the total goals from the last three home match-
es: 1-3 (4 goals), 1-0, (1 goal), 3-1 (4 goals) = 9 goals in total
in Arsenal’s last three home matches.
3) At least two out of three home matches for the home
team must have finished over 2.5 goals (the total goals
scored by both teams needs to have been 3 or more).
Two of Arsenal’s last three home matches have finished
with 4 goals each (note the 1-3 defeat to Aston Villa on
17th August and the 3-1 home win against Stoke City on
22 September).
4) There must have been a total of 7+ goals in the away
team’s last three away matches. For the purposes of this
article, we assume Arsenal are playing at home and the
away team is Newcastle United. Look at Newcastle’s last
three away matches:

Newcastle’s last three away matches ended 1-2 (3 goals),

3-2 (5 goals) and 1-2 (3 goals) so they have scored 11 goals
in their last three away matches.
5) The away team must have scored in two or three of their
last three away matches. Newcastle have scored 2 goals
in each of their last three away matches.
This five-step plan will highlight matches whose recent
form indicates the ability for both sides to score and con-
cede goals.
The strike rate for this Over 2.5 Goals strategy can be in-
creased further by introducing an element of trading on
Betfair. Having backed Over 2.5 Goals, you could use Bet-
fair’s ‘Cash Out’ facility if the match has an early goal, or two
goals have been scored by half-time.
As a bonus to readers, I will be highlighting qualifying
Over 2.5 Goals matches in the members’ area at www.what
reallywinsmoney.co.uk. Make sure you have your username
and password to hand.

FOOTBALL STRATEGY:
The Hoffenheim Effect

I want you to be aware of the ‘latch onto’ secret to football
profits which you can easily employ every season.
Quite simply, you ‘latch onto’ a team, or teams who show
specific characteristics week-in and week-out.
In other words, we are looking for predictable football
teams... it’s what I call ‘The Hoffenheim Effect’.
My Delay-React-Trade (www.drt.club) football traders and I
have been profiting on a weekly basis thanks to this Hoffen-
heim Effect. And how have we been profiting?
Hoffenheim are one of a handful of football teams this
season who have shown superbly consistent statistical pat-
terns.
They have been so consistently ‘readable’ that we have been
able to target a number of specific betting markets when-
ever Hoffenheim play, and profit from them.
Here’s how to discover the Hoffenheim Effect...
1. Go to www.soccerstats.com (or better yet use my com-
prehensive statistical football research and live chat
facility provided to members of my Delay-React-Trade
trading club).
2. Click on the league of interest from the horizontal menu
at the top of the website. Here I have selected ‘de’ under
a picture of the German flag:

3. Select a match or team of interest. Here I select Hoffen-

heim by click on their name in the league table.
4. See if you can notice any really eye-catching patterns
to the team’s performance after they have a number of
matches under their belt during the season. The quick-
est way to do this is to glance at the stats tables (the
work is already done for you) at www.soccerstats.com.
By clicking on the ‘Stats’ link, you can access the ‘Streaks
and Scoring’ stats tables, which are a perfect launching pad
in your quest to look for a team who has the Hoffenheim
Effect.
The stats tables show Hoffenheim. What really stands out
for you as regards these ‘Streaks and Scoring’ stats?

Here’s what I noticed:

»» Hoffenheim have scored in their last 14 home matches
(or in other words, in all home matches played).
»» Hoffenheim have conceded in their last 14 away match-
es (or in other words, in all away matches played).
»» 100% of Hoffenheim’s home matches finish over 2.5
goals (meaning 3 or more goals are scored in total).
»» 71% of Hoffenheim’s home matches finish over 3.5
goals (meaning 4 or more goals are scored in total).
These are outstanding statistics. What markets do you think
we should be focussing on with these kinds of statistics?
By going to www.betfair.com, clicking on ‘Football’ and
then the match of interest, you can access a huge variety of
football betting markets (tip – ensure the particular match
has an In-play facility to enable you to bet as the match is
played).

I hope you would have chosen a Goals bet with those strong
Hoffenheim goals stats. Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Goals
will give you a great run for your money.
In this particular match, Hoffenheim are playing away from
home. Remember that they have conceded in every away
match this season.
We can profit from this information if the match is 0-0 for
a long while, or if Hoffenheim score the first goal. We are
entering the realms of slightly more advanced trading now,
but these profitable topics and others are covered compre-
hensively in my DRT trading course, with accompanying
research of every major football match seven days a week,
as well as a live chat facility to maximise your profits from
the Hoffenheim Effect.

Using other areas of www.soccerstats.com to enhance

the Hoffenheim Effect.
The ‘All Results’ table at www.soccerstats.com is a minefield
of information. Study this table for Hoffenheim below, and
tell me what you have gleaned from it...
Here’s what I noticed...

In the sample of matches above, Hoffenheim have only had
three matches under 2.5 goals (note the three matches in
the ‘2.5’ column which did not have a ‘+’).
As far as clean sheets are concerned (‘cs’ in the table
above), forget about it! In the sample of matches above, Hof-
fenheim had kept only one clean sheet.

The ‘HT’ (half-time score) column is also revealing. It shows

that Hoffenheim only had three 0-0s at half-time all season.
The Soccerstats league table reveals yet more...
Here’s a shot of the Soccerstats league table for Hoffenheim.
Again, I’ll ask you to study it and note what you see from
their home and away score lines...
Pay particular attention to Hoffenheim’s score lines at

home. Notice that both teams have scored and conceded in
all home matches bar one (the 3-0 win over Hamburg).
Bottom line...
You don’t need to be a stats nerd like me in order to profit
from football statistics. Simply check out four tables at
www.soccerstats.com mid-way through a football season,
and only focus on teams who have the Hoffenheim Effect:
teams whose stats stop you directly in your tracks!

An ideal is to wait until the turn of New Year, and then look
at the four tables below and note teams with outstanding
patterns and trends.
Those four tables are:
1. The Streaks Table
2. The Scoring Table
3. The All Results Table
4. Soccerstats unique League Table
Focus only on what I call ‘primary leagues’: those are the
leagues with world famous teams such as, erm, Hoffenheim
(but also the likes of Bayern Munich and Dortmund in the
Bundesliga).
If you want someone to do this for you, then check out my
DRT service at:
www.drt.club/get-instant-access/.

FOOTBALL BETTING
This Free Online Football Stats

Webite Could Make You Some
Serious Cash
I want to introduce you to a new way to bet In Play on foot-
ball matches: to use the In-Play stats.
This is something I have introduced into live chats at my
Delay-React-Trade service to some great success, and is
something I want to introduce you to.
These stats will make profits! There are four In-Play stats I
feel you should focus on when betting on football matches
In Play, and these are as follows:
1. Shots on target
2. Shots off target
3. Corners
4. Possession
Let’s look at each one in turn and then I’ll show you where
you can find these stats for free (I use a paid-for live feed for
my Delay-React-Trade live chats, but you don’t have to!)
Shots on target – The team with the most shots on target is
the team most likely to score. A high shots-on-target figure
for both sides can also signal the imminent end to a 0-0
score line, and also a likelihood that Over 2.5 Goals might be
a solid bet, as well as a goal before half-time.
Shots off target – I use shots off target along with shots on

target, to show me the team who are dominating in the at-

tacking third of the pitch. I have seen some teams with 10+
shots off target. These are the teams to look out for. Eventu-
ally, they should score, and this will allow you In-Play bet-
tors a chance to back the team at value odds, in the antici-
pation that they’ll eventually find their scoring boots.
Corners – Corners provide us with another important
glimpse into the team which is dominating in that all-
important attacking third. Oftentimes when you see a team
who has, say, seven corners to their opponent’s none, they
score the next goal.
Possession – Quite simply, you can’t score if you don’t have
the ball. There was a team in Turkey recently whose posses-
sion was as high as 75%. That kind of possession is likely to
translate into goals and a win, if the match is at stalemate.
I would urge you to get proficient at reading these stats in
In-Play matches, as they can provide us with superb clues
as to what to anticipate while a match is in play.
If you are like me, and want to see how a match unfolds
before committing funds, then these stats will point you in
the right direction.
There is a website which provides all of these stats in the
one place, updated in play on a regular basis...
Welcome to www.squawka.com. At their home page, on the
right-hand side, you’ll see the heading ‘Today’s matches’.
Clicking on your match of interest will bring up a new
screen. I will take you through the two stats pages you need
to profit from with In-Play betting...

The first set of stats you need is the Head-to-Head stats:
Note these stats are for a match which has completed. The
away side here had 10 shots on target to their opponent’s
one. No wonder they won 1-4!
The corners count was small, but also in favour of the away
side. Possession at the end of the match was fairly even.
As this match went In-Play, these stats would be updated
regularly to give you an idea of who would have been more
likely to score first.

The next screen I want to introduce you to is what I call the

‘momentum swing’ screen:
At no time during this match, were Zenit under the cosh. If

it looked as if Kuban would gain an edge, their line would
break this ‘0’ line, arrowed above.
This momentum graph is excellent at showing the obviously
dominant team and also any likely swings in momentum,
which will be seen when one team’s line crosses upwards as
their opponent’s wanes.
The previous and next arrows can be used to look at a
whole different array of pages, but we should narrow our
focus to the stats overview and the ‘Performance score over
time’ pages, which are located where I have the two small
vertical arrows.

I’ll be showing you at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

how to read these screens during an In-Play match. So look
out for that post at the website.
Bottom line – www.squawka.com provides excellent In-Play
stats to boost your football profits.

THE PATRIARCH PRESENTS
An Easy Way to Make Money

From Predicting Next Season’s
Top Premiership Teams
This month, the Patriarch looks forward to next season’s Pre-
mier League action and provides an excellent and easy-to-use
backing and laying strategy. (This article is taken from the
end of the 13/14 Season but the principle can be used at the
start of each season.)
T his is a plan to be ready for the start of next season, and

it’s a plan of two halves (to use the cliché that’s often
applied to the beautiful game).
What’s more, it concentrates on one league only – the Eng-
lish Premiership – because that is the one that is probably
most popular with football punters, and also, it’s the only
one that I’ve had the opportunity to research fully.
The first half is simplicity itself to explain and to apply, and
with profits (though not huge) practically guaranteed.
I think most of us, with reasonable certainty, could at the
start of the season select six teams that would finish in the
top 10 of the league. That is the first thing we are looking
for.
Now that you have your six of the best what do you do with
them? The answer is ridiculously simple: you back each one
to win, in win singles, every match they play in the league,
except when they are playing each other.

The profits won’t be big, but they will be there.

It’s like operating a portfolio of six systems whereby they
won’t all win all the time, but the winnings of some will
compensate for the losses on others. And by the end of the
season there should be profits.
At the time of writing, the profit on the top six to a £10
stake is close to £300 – not a fortune, but a fairly safe kind
of insurance bet.
That’s the first half over, and the interval, so we’ll move on
to the second half...
For this, we are looking at teams in the bottom half of the
league. I don’t wish to hurt any supporters’ feelings, but I
think we can identify some teams that are not going to be
contenders for the top six, but rather are hoping to avoid
relegation.
I’ve picked one at random from the middle of the lower half
to illustrate my idea. The pin has fallen on Hull City. (I could
easily have chosen one of the relegated teams, but that
would have given an unfair bias to my idea.)
If we look at Hull’s sequence of results, we can see some-
thing that should enable us to make a profit – albeit at Hull’s
expense. On only one occasion throughout the whole season
have they won two games in a row. Or, to put it differently,
every other win was followed by a loss or a draw. And on
all but one of these occasions, not just one loss or draw, but
more: up to five. Surely this is profitable laying material.
Again, you won’t make a fortune, but if you are happy with
small gains then this is what I’d suggest.

Here’s a look at Hull’s form from the 2013/2014 sea-

son... The only occasions where Hull won two consecutive
matches occurred on 21 September 2013 and 28 Septem-
ber 2013, against Newcastle United and West Ham United
respectively.
Select your team, or teams, that you think are not going to
be too successful in the League for next season – including
Hull, if you wish – and wait until they’ve had a win. Then lay
them in their next game. If that lay is successful, as statisti-
cally it should be, then lay them again in their next game,
with the same stake. In other words, you’ve had a lay dou-
ble on the two games. Stop there. Don’t be tempted to go for

a treble.
Of course, the first lay after the win might not be successful.
In that case, you lay the next game with your losses added
now to the stake, so that a successful lay now recovers
your losses and you win your stake. But if that second lay
has also gone down, then you’ve lost. But since that means
that the team has won three games in succession – a rather
unlikely outcome – there is no need to be too worried. Hull
didn’t manage to do it all this season, and nor did nearly all
the other teams in the lower half either.
After that unlikely loss, which didn’t happen, continue with
your ordinary stake, looking for two successive and suc-
cessful lays. Stop there and wait for a Hull win before re-
peating the process all over again.
The embarrassing bit, the choice of team or teams to lose,
I’ll leave to you. And next time, I’ll give this full season’s
operation of the bet with Hull to show exactly how it works,
in case there are any doubts.
Out of interest, here’s how the other bottom-five sides did
this season just past: Cardiff City had only seven wins all
season and no consecutive wins; Fulham won consecutive
matches on two occasions this season; Norwich won only
eight matches this season and no consecutive wins; and
West Brom, like Hull, only won consecutive matches on one
occasion this season.
For more Updates, Tips and Advice, go to:
www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk


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7 Ways to Profit From Football Trading

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 1

Free Software to Boost Your

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 2

In the ‘Betting Statistics – Query’ box I asked the software

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 3

Soccerstats Tracker allows you to query the following bet-

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 4

ally niche betting markets.

I would now make a note when any of these listed teams

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 5

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 6

instantly see the key statistics in any number of betting

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 7

THE PATRIARCH PRESENTS:

How to Use Soccerstats.com to

T his month, The Patriarch treads a familiar path – that

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 8

well have more information than the odds compiler who’s

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 9

As they are at home, we look at the ‘home’ column for the

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 10

For Manchester City, we are looking for the average goals

Again, respectively the figures are 1.33 and 1.00. Now

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 11

Man Utd will score, which is 1.80, which gets rounded up

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 12

Introducing The HSA Technique:

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 13

We need the betting markets to go in-play.

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 14

change in tactics, the old ‘hairdryer’ treatment from the

The scoreline in brackets is the half-time scoreline (0-3 to

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 15

My interest is piqued at this stage! The USA Women, along

USA women’s odds were 27 at half-time. In reaction to scor-

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 16

Having backed USA Women at odds of 27, their odds reduce

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 17

How much can I make at this stage of the match? Let’s

With the fight-back almost complete, I can now secure a

In hindsight, it was fortunate that I profited when the score-

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 18

Other examples – This is not an isolated incident. There

Remember that I said it is what happens as a match is in-

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 19

have reduced dramatically from their position earlier in the

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 20

Bottom line – This is an excellent niche. The most famous

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 21

How to Profit by Placing a

Once at the in-play coupon, select your match of choice.

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 22

By laying 0-0, we want a goal to be scored by either side

The half-time score odds (arrowed above) show that 0-0

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 23

The half-time scores are found here:

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 24

Minimise risk, maximise returns

© Canonbury Publishing Ltd 25

I have done a video presentation (see the link on page 23),

Why Waiting Until the 85th

How was this achieved?

1) Shortlist all short-priced favourites in the Betfair in-play