Inflation

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Tatlong Beinte Singko

by Dingdong Avansado (1988)


Tatlong Beinte Singko lang ang ang aking
kailangan
Upang makausap ka kahit sandali lang
Tatlong Beinte Singko sa isang araw
Tatlong beses ko ring maririning sa iyong mga
labi na
Mahal Kita, Mahal Kita
Wala nang iba…Wala nang iba
Four Major Causes of Price Increase
1. The abundance of gold and silver which were
brought to Rome that the people were freed
from paying taxes. Prices of goods increased
by 2/3 at once.
2. Monopolies of merchant, craftsman, and
laborers. These monopolies raised and fixed
prices or costs of their day's labor and products.
Four Major Causes of Price Increase
3. Scarcity due to 2 major causes:
a. the excessive export from France or the
hindrance to bring to it things needed.
b. Wasting scarce resources.
4. Pleasure of the Prince and Nobles. The people
tend to prize and raised the cost of everything
the great lords like. (in modern economics, this
is known as demonstration effects on demand).
Change in Price
Inflation
– average sustained or continuing
increase of price
–is defined as the annual rate of change or
the year-on-year change in the CPI.
http://www.census.gov.ph

Deflation
–average sustained or continuing
decrease of price
Inflation
• How to measure inflation rate?

CPI2 - CPI1
IR= x 100
CPI1

http://www.census.gov.ph
Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI market basket contains a


sample of goods and services
(some 400 items) commonly
purchased by a group of households
in a particular area (11 retail markets
in Metro Manila and more or less
600 municipalities throughout the
country)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
It is the weighted arithmetic mean of price
relatives, a variant of the Laspeyres
formula with fixed base year period
weights. http://www.census.gov.ph
∑ (Pn Qo)
CPI = x 100
∑ (Po Qo)
where:
Pn - price during the give period
Po - price during the base riod
Qn - quantity during the give period
Qo - quantity during the base period
2003
Commodity Price Quantity
A P 0.10 per pound 80 pounds
B 2.0 per ton 10 tons
C 0.80 per litre 50 litres
D 0.20 per dozen 100 dozens
2004
Commodity Price Quantity
A P 0.15 per pound 200 pounds
B 1.50 per ton 5 tons
C 1.00 per litre 75 litres
D 0.25 per dozen 100 dozens
• Solve for CPI and Inflation rate 2004
Base year 2003
Year-on-Year Philippines Inflation Rates by
Commodity Group, June and May 2016 (2006 = 100)
Year 2016 2015
All Items 1.9 1.6
Food and Non- Alcoholic Beverages 2.9 2.3
Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco 5.7 5.6
Clothing and Footwear 2.5 2.4
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas,
-0.4 -1.2
and Other Fuels
Furnishing, Household Equipment
and Routine Maintenance of the 1.8 1.6
House
Health 2.5 2.4
Levels of Inflation
• Moderate Inflation- single digit
• Galloping Inflation -double to triple
• Hyperinflation
Inflation
• What is the optimal Rate of Inflation?
Inflation Rate Growth of per capita GDP

-20 – 0 0.7

0 – 10 2.4

10 – 20 1.8

20 – 40 0.4

100 – 200 -1.7

1000+ -6.5
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper cited at cited at Economics 18th ed. by Sameulson

• Price Stability (lower unemployment and high output)


– Less than 3 percent (Schiller)
– 2 to 4 percent (Samuelson)
Causes of Inflation
• Cost-Push Inflation
• Demand-Pull Inflation
Source:www.worldbank.org

Inflation Rate of Philippines


50 Edsa Revolution
Source:www.worldbank.org

45

40
Oil-price Shocks Inflation Rate of Philippines
35

30

25
Martial Law
Energy Crisis
20

15

10

0 Importation Decreases
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Undesirability of Inflation
• Economic plans and policies
• Fixed Income earners
• Pensioners
• Creditors
• Purchasing Power
Inflation Gainers
• Flexible earners
• Speculators
• Debtors
50 Edsa Revolution
Source:www.worldbank.org

45

40
Oil-price Shocks Inflation Rate of Philippines
35

30

25

20
Assignment
Martial Law
Energy Crisis

15

10

0
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016

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