TO: Jared Golden for Congress

FROM: The Mellman Group

DATE: August 1, 2018
RE: Golden Leads In Maine’s 2nd District And Has An Excellent Chance To Win
This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 400 voters representing the likely November 2018 electorate in Maine’s 2nd
Congressional District. Interviews were conducted by telephone from July 25th -30th, 2018 using a registration-based sample of
cellphones and landlines. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.9 percentage points at a 95% level of confidence. The
margin of error is higher for subgroups.

Our just-completed poll shows Democratic state lawmaker and Marine combat veteran Jared
Golden leading in the race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District using the states’ new, ranked-
choice voting system. Incumbent Bruce Poliquin is in difficult straits with voters.

GOLDEN IS NECK-AND-NECK WITH POLIQUIN IN THE INTIAL FIRST-CHOICE VOTE

In the initial, first-choice matchup, Golden is a in a virtual dead-heat with Poliquin – earning
39% to Poliquin’s 40%, with minor party candidates garnering a combined 4%. Sixteen percent
(16%) remain undecided. Among swing independents Golden leads by 7-points (33% to 26%).

GOLDEN LEADS IN THE RANKED-CHOICE VOTE

In the state’s new ranked-choice, “instant run-off,” voting system, if no candidate earns a
majority of the vote in the first-choice, votes for the lowest vote getter are re-allocated to their
next choice successively until a winner is declared with a majority of the vote.

After removing undecideds, Poliquin leads by one point (47% Golden, 48% Poliquin). By the
final round, Golden clinches a narrow victory (51% to 49%).

Golden Leads The Ranked-Choice Vote

Simulated ME-02 Ranked-Choice Congressional Vote
60% 1st Round 2nd Round 3rd Round
51%
50% 48% 48% 48% 49%
47%

40%

30%

20%

10%
4% 4%
2%
0%
Golden Poliquin Bond Hoar Golden Poliquin Bond Golden Poliquin

1023 31st Street, NW  5th Floor  Washington, DC 20007

202-625-0370  www.mellmangroup.com
 The Mellman Group (August 2018)

GOLDEN GARNERS AN OUTRIGHT MAJORITY IN THE FIRST-CHOICE AFTER

VOTERS HEAR FROM BOTH CANDIDATES
After respondents heard positive paragraphs summarizing both candidates’ messages1, Golden
surges to a 10-point lead locking up the race on the first-choice ballot, earning a 51% majority of
the vote against Poliquin’s 41%
(Bond is at 3%). After Hearing Descriptions Of Both
Candidates, Golden Earns A Majority In The
Golden’s lead is due, in important First-Choice Vote
part, to his impressive 19-point FIRST-CHOICE CONGRESSIONAL VOTE
margin (49% Golden, 30% Poliquin) INITIAL POST-DESCRIPTION
80%
among independent voters– the
segment which will ultimately 60% -1 +10
decide the race in November. 51%
39%40% 41%
40%
POLIQUIN IS WEAK
By every measure, Congressman 20%
Poliquin is extremely vulnerable 3% 1% 3% 0%
three months from Election Day. 0%
More voters have unfavorable — Golden 1 Poliquin Bond 2 Hoar
rather than favorable — views of
him and he is net-negative on job
performance by a whopping 25- Poliquin Is Underwater On Favorables
points. And Job Performance
100%

Among the district’s critical cohort Favorability Job Rating

80%
of independents, Poliquin suffers -25
-2
an even worse fate. He is 58%
60%
underwater by 11-points in
favorability (36% favorable to 47% 42% 44%
40%
unfavorable among independents) 33%
and by a massive 43-points on job
20%
performance (25% of independents
hold positive ratings, while 68% 20% very 30% very 10% exc. 33% poor
0%
rate him negatively). Favorable Unfavorable Positive Negative

1
Bruce Poliquin, a Republican, currently represents Maine in Congress. A third generation Mainer, Bruce’s parents taught him the values of working hard, spending wisely, and
always making time to help your neighbors. Bruce spent decades in business, creating hundreds of jobs and successfully managing pensions. In Congress, Poliquin has become a
leading national voice for solving problems rather than playing political games – he’s fought bad trade deals which kill Maine jobs, opposed dangerous nuclear deals, and is working
to end the opioid epidemic. In Congress, Poliquin will continue to protect our seniors’ social security and Medicare, ensure our veterans receive the care and respect they deserve and
cut red tape so our Maine small businesses can create quality, high-paying jobs.

Jared Golden, a Democrat, a former Marine and a state legislator, wants to help Mainers get good-paying jobs that provide healthcare and a secure retirement. After returning home
from Iraq and Afghanistan, Golden worked 3 jobs, nights and weekends, to make ends meet. Using Veterans Administration benefits, Golden graduated from Bates College. In the
State House, Golden led the fight to expand access to healthcare for 70,000 Mainers and worked across party lines to stop corporations from stealing wages from their workers.
Golden wants to protect manufacturing jobs and our traditional ways of earning a living, while protecting Social Security and Medicare. Golden will never forget what it felt like to
struggle, and he’ll work every day to help make sure other Mainers don’t have to.
-2-
 The Mellman Group (August 2018)

GOLDEN IS BETTER LIKED

By contrast, Jared Golden is well-liked, with room to grow. Though not as well known as
Poliquin, 30% view Golden favorably and only 10% are unfavorable.

With a majority of voters still unfamiliar with Golden, however, there is plenty of room for
growth, as we saw above, after positive information was delivered by both candidates.

GOLDEN IS IN AN EXCELLENT POSITION TO WIN

Golden begins in a dead-heat with a well-known incumbent who is held in low repute by
district voters. After allocating votes according to the state’s new ranked-choice procedure,
Golden garners a majority against Poliquin, based in part on a particularly large margin among
independents. That margin expands as both candidates communicate their messages. Golden’s
personal advantages as a Marine veteran and effective state legislator, buttressed by voters’
deep concerns about Poliquin, bode well for Golden’s victory in November.

-3-