WHO Methods and Data Sources For Life Tables 1990-2015: Department of Information, Evidence and Research WHO, Geneva

WHO methods and data sources
for life tables 1990-2015
Department of Information, Evidence and Research

WHO, Geneva
May 2016
Global Health Estimates Technical Paper WHO/HIS/IER/GHE/2016.2

Acknowledgments
This Technical Report was written by Colin Mathers and Jessica Ho with inputs and assistance from Dan
Hogan, Wahyu Retno Mahanani, Doris Ma Fat and Gretchen Stevens. WHO life tables were primarily
prepared by Jessica Ho and Colin Mathers of the Mortality and Health Analysis Unit in the WHO
Department of Information, Evidence and Research (in the Health Systems and Innovation Cluster of
WHO, Geneva). Data and methods for the 2016 update of life tables were developed with advice and
assistance from a WHO Lifetables Working Group, established by the WHO Reference Group on Global
Health Statistics. We also drew on advice and inputs from Interagency Group on Child Mortality
Estimation (UN IGME), the UN Population Division and UNAIDS. We would particularly like to note the
assistance and inputs provided by Jeffrey Eaton, Patrick Gerland, Stephane Helleringer, Mary Mahy,
Bruno Masquelier, Francois Pelletier, John Stover, John Wilmoth and Danzhen You.
Estimates and analysis are available at:

http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/en/index.html
http://www.who.int/gho
For further information about the estimates and methods, please contact healthstat@who.int
In this series
1. WHO methods and data sources for life tables 1990-2011 (Global Health Estimates Technical Paper
WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2013.1)
2. WHO-CHERG methods and data sources for child causes of death 2000-2011 (Global Health Estimates
Technical Paper WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2013.2)
3. WHO methods and data sources for global causes of death 2000-2011 (Global Health Estimates
4. WHO methods and data sources for global burden of disease estimates 2000-2011 (Global Health
Estimates Technical Paper WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2013.4)
5. WHO methods for life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (Global Health Estimates Technical
Paper WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2014.5)
6. CHERG-WHO methods and data sources for child causes of death 2000-2012 (Global Health Estimates
7. WHO methods and data sources for country-level causes of death 2000-2012 (Global Health Estimates
8. MCEE-WHO methods and data sources for child causes of death 2000-2015 (Global Health Estimates
Contents
Acknowledgments...........................................................................................................................................
Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................................................
1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
2 WPP2015 life tables............................................................................................................................... 1
3 General approach for preparation of annual life tables ........................................................................... 2
3.1 Interpolation of mx for countries in the WPP and VR categories ....................................................... 4
3.2 Interpolation of mx for high HIV and “Other HIV” countries.............................................................. 6
4 Adjustments using death registration data ............................................................................................ 20
4.1 Updated assessments of VR completeness ...................................................................................... 40
4.2 Revision of imputed annual death rates ........................................................................................... 42
5 Neonatal, infant and under five mortality ............................................................................................ 133
6 WHO estimates of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy ........................................................... 133
References ................................................................................................................................................ 155
Annex A: Data sources and methods for WHO Life Tables....................................................................... 177
Annex B: Data sources and methods for mortality shocks ......................................................................... 34
Annex C: Estimated completeness of death registration data ................................................................... 41
Annex D: Estimated completeness of death registration data for most recent year ................................. 48
Annex E: Comparison of 45q15 estimates, WPP2015 and GHE2016 ......................................................... 49
ABBREVIATIONS
ARR Annual rate of reduction
ART Anti-retroviral therapy
CD Coale Demeny
DHS USAID-supported Demographic and Health Surveys
EPP UNAIDS Epidemic Projection Package
GHE2015 WHO Global Health Estimates 2015
GHE2013 WHO Global Health Estimates 2013
ICD International Classification of Diseases
IFHS Iraq Family Health Survey 2006-2007
IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
IMR Infant mortality rate
MICS UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys
mx age-specific death rates calculated from information on deaths among persons in the age group
commencing at age x during a given time period and the total person-years for the population in
the same age group during the same time period. For WHO and WPP2015 abridged life tables,
all age groups from 5 onwards are 5-year age groups, m0 refers to infants aged 0 (first 12
months of life) and m1 refers to children aged 1 to 4 (ie. between exact ages 1 and 5).
NMR Neonatal mortality rate
PCHIP Piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomials
PMTCT Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission of HIV
PRIO Peace Research Institute Oslo
nqx probability of dying between exact ages x and x+n.
U5MR Under-5 mortality rate
UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Program
UN-IGME Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
UNPD UN Population Division
VR Vital registration
WHO World Health Organization
WHS 2002 to 2003 WHO World Health Survey program
WPP2015 World Population Prospects 2015
1 Introduction
The World Health Organization (WHO) began producing annual life tables for all Member States in 1999.
These life tables are a basic input to all WHO estimates of global, regional and country-level patterns
and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality. After the publication of life tables for years to 2009
in the 2011 edition of World Health Statistics, WHO has shifted to a two year cycle for the updating of
life tables for all Member States, and has moved towards alignment of this revision cycle with that of the
World Population Prospects produced biennially by the UN Population Division.
Since 1998, WHO has been producing annual abridged life tables for Member States as part of its
mandate to monitor and report on global progress in improving health. During the MDG era, WHO has
been estimating time series of life tables from 1990 onwards. To support its reporting on progress
towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, WHO has released updated annual life tables
for Member States for the period 1990-2015. These are available in the WHO Global Health Observatory
(1) and in World Health Statistics 2016 (2). These updated life tables also provide the all-cause mortality
estimates for the WHO Global Health Estimates 2015 (GHE2015) to be released in 2016.
In recent years, WHO has liaised more closely with the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) on life
tables for countries, in order to maximize the consistency of UN and WHO life tables, and to minimize
differences in the use and interpretation of available data on mortality levels. For almost all WHO
Member States, this update draws on the World Population Prospects 2015 (WPP2015) life tables
prepared by the UN Population Division (UNPD) (3), as well as on infant and under-5 mortality rates
(U5MR) have been developed and agreed upon by the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
(UN-IGME) which is made up of WHO, UNICEF, UNPD, World Bank and academic groups (4). death
registration data reported to WHO by Member States (5), and UNAIDS/WHO estimates of HIV mortality
for countries with high HIV prevalence (6).
The WHO Reference Group on Global Health Statistics convened a WHO Life Table Working Group in
December 2014 to advise WHO on data, methods and revision strategies for WHO life tables. This group
included academic experts as well as representatives of WHO, UNAIDS and UNPD and provided WHO
with advice on the GHE2015 revisions through 2015 to date.
Consultations with Member States were carried out for estimates of neonatal, infant and child mortality
in 2015, and for HIV mortality data, assumptions and estimates by UNAIDS in 2015 and 2016. Estimates
for non-HIV mortality for ages 5 and over are closely aligned with the WPP2015 life tables, with
adjustments for annual variations reported in death registration data and for mortality shocks (conflict
and natural disasters). As a result, WHO did not carry out a separate consultation for the life table
mortality rates, but will make these available to Member States for information, and for comments and
new data to contribute to future revisions.
2. WPP2015 life tables

WPP2015 was released in mid-2015 (2) and includes abridged life tables for five-year periods 1950-
1955,……,2095-2100, for age groups 0, 1, 5, 10,….., 100+ by sex . Life tables are available for 183 of the
194 WHO Member States and for 3 non-Member territories with substantial populations (Occupied
Palestinian Territory, Puerto Rico and China: Province of Taiwan). The WPP2015 excluded the following
World Health Organization Page 1

11 Member States (all with population <90,000 in 2015): Andorra, Cook Islands, Dominica, Marshall
Islands, Monaco, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Saint Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, and Tuvalu. The most recent
Global Health Estimates for causes of death (7) excluded 22 Member States with a population of less
than 550,000 in 2015. For the current update, life tables have been prepared for the 183 WHO Member
States included in WPP2015, as well as for the 3 largest non-Member territories. The latter will not be
released, but included only for the calculation of regional and global life tables and all-cause mortality.
For a group of 21 “high HIV countries”, the WPP life tables were developed using Spectrum to model the
HIV epidemic using Spectrum inputs and assumptions for HIV provided by UNAIDS in mid-2014. For
these countries, UN Population Division has provided estimates of non-AIDS death rates in the form of
model life tables indexed by e0 time series and specification of the model life table variant used for each
country (mostly Coale Demeny North). This allows calculation of implied age-sex-specific HIV death rates
for these countries.
3 General approach for preparation of annual life tables

For this update, the objective was to publish WHO annual period life tables for years 1990-2015. For
internal use in other analyses, we also aimed to prepare annual life tables for 1985-1989.The starting
point for the preparation of WHO annual life tables was to interpolate annual values for the age-specific
mortality rates mx from the WPP2015 5-year period average mx for each age-sex-country time series.
The WPP2015 uses the convention that a specified year (eg. 2015) refers to 1 July. Use of a hyphen (-)
between years, for example, 1995-2000, signifies the full period involved, from 1 July of the first year to
1 July of the second year. WHO references to calendar years (eg 2015) refer to the period 1 January to
31 December and statistics either refer to averages or totals for the calendar year period. In practice,
the annual average mortality rate for a calendar year is assumed to be essentially the same as the
mortality rate at 1 July. Similarly, we assume that the 1 July population for year T is a proxy for the
average population of calendar year T.
So if PT is the 1 July population for calendar year T, then the average population for the quinquennial
period 2010-2015 is the person-years for the period 1 July 2010 to 1 July 2015 divided by 5:
Average population = (0.5*P2010 + P2012 + P2010 + P2013 +P2014 + 0.5*P2015)/5
For purposes of interpolation, we assume that the quinquennial average death rate falls in the centre of
the quinquennial period eg. 1 January 2003 = 2002.5 This is usually an adequate approximation to the
extent that trends are reasonably linear across the quinquennial interval.
For interpolation of mx values for annual periods 1985, 1986, …..2015 we used piecewise cubic Herite
interpolating polynomials (usually referred to as PCHIP). This has the desirable property that he
piecewise cubics join smoothly, so that both the interpolated function and its first derivative are
continuous. In addition, the interpolant is shape-preserving in the sense that it cannot overshoot locally;
sections in which period mx is increasing, decreasing or constant with time remain so after
interpolation, and local extremes (maxima, maxima) also remain so (8). PCHIP interpolation was

implemented using a procedure called pchipolate.ado available for Stata from the Statistical Software
Components (SSC) Archive, often termed the "Boston College" archive (9).
When mx is not monotonically changing over time, and the mx for one period represents a local
maximum or minimum, the interpolated annual mx will result in a period average mx that is lower than
the local maximum input mx, or higher than the local minimum. This is illustrated in the following plot.
0.4
period average mx
0.35
3rd iteration
0.3 first iteration
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
To ensure that the period average mx from the interpolated annual mx matches the inputs, the inputs
were adjusted by the ratio of the original input to the new period average and the imputation repeated.
Tests showed that three iterations were adequate to achieve reasonable convergence with average
relative deviations in period mx below 0.001.
We defined four groups of Member States for which data inputs and interpolation methods differed.
The four groups are:
High HIV countries 21 countries for which WPP2015 used Spectrum to explicitly model HIV
mortality. The UN Population Division has provided unpublished estimates of
non-HIV mortality for these countries.
“Other” HIV countries An additional 22 countries with significant HIV epidemics for which WHO has
in the past explicitly modelled HIV and non-HIV mortality trends in order to
prepare life tables. These countries were not modelled using Spectrum for
WPP2015.
VR countries 85 countries for which the WHO Mortality Database held mortality data from
vital registration (VR) systems for 75% or more of years since 1990.
WPP countries 58 countries where interpolated mortality rates from WPP quinquennial life
tables were used directly to construct annual life tables
A full list of countries in each category is provided in Annex Table A.

3.1 Interpolation of mx for countries in the WPP and VR categories
Conflict and natural disasters (mortality shocks) may cause substantial increases in death rates for
specific country-years. These may or may not be reflected in available death registration or
survey/census data. WHO makes estimates of these deaths by country-year as part of its overall cause of
death analyses and hence the all-cause mortality and life tables need to be consistent. Methods used for
updating mortality shock estimates are summarized in Annex B.
The WPP 2015 includes the impact of large mortality shocks in some cases (eg. Rwanda 1994 genocide)
but not for others (eg. Haiti 2010 earthquake). This may be obvious from 45q15 plots for large isolated
mortality shocks, but much less clear for extended conflicts such as those in Afghanistan or Iraq. The
assumed impact of mortality shocks included in WPP estimates may or may not be consistent with the
WHO estimates of size of mortality shocks.
Annual estimates of conflict and natural disaster deaths by country, age, sex and year for the period
1985-2015 were prepared as described in Annex B. For countries in the VR and WPP groups, 45q15 plots
were reviewed to identify country-periods for which WPP2015 had included an impact of mortality
shocks. Separate plots for males and females were made for 45q15 calculated directly from the WPP
2015 estimates of mx and for “shock-free” mx from which the WHO estimates of shock mortality had
been subtracted. The following plots show examples where the WPP 2015 estimates of mx included
shock mortality (Bosnia and Herzegovina, left) and where they did not (Myanmar, right). For cases in
the first category, non-shock mx were interpolated from the mx for neighbouring periods.
For six countries with extended conflicts, covering many of the 5-year periods in the range 1985-2015, it
was assumed that the adult mortality data used to prepare WPP2015 life tables had included conflict
mortality. These six countries were Afghanistan, Iraq, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. For these
countries, the WHO estimates of shock mortality for the 5-year periods were subtracted from the
WPP2015 mortality rates and the 45q15 time series computed. The non-shock 45q15 were smoothed

using Loess regression with bandwidth 0.8 and the smoothed 45q15 were used together with the UN
model life table system (10,11) to compute non-shock mortality rates by age and sex.
Adjustments were also made for specific country-periods listed in Table 1, where WPP2015 had included
some impact for a mortality shock. Table 2 lists country-periods with significant shock mortality
according to WHO estimates, for which WPP2015 did not include a shock adjustment.
Table 1. Shocks identified as included in WPP 2015 mortality rates
WHO estimated
Country Period Type of shock Deaths/10,000 Deaths (‘000)
Algeria 1990-2005 Conflict 8 32
Azerbaijan 1990-1995 Conflict 24 9
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1990-2000 Conflict 182 38
Croatia 1990-1995 Conflict 8 2
Georgia 1990-1995 Conflict 20 5
Indonesia 2000-2005 2004 Asian tsunami 14 166
Iran 1985-1990 Conflict and 1990 earthquake 13 40
2000-2005 Bam earthquake 2003 9 29
Lebanon 1985-1990 Conflict 52 7
Libya 2010-2015 Conflict 19 6
Mexico 1985-1990 1985 Mexico City earthquake 23 95
Micronesia 2000-2005 Tropical storm Chataan 2002 9 0.1
Nicaragua 1985-1990 Conflict 16 3
1995-2000 1998 Hurricane Mitch 14 3
Palestine 1985-2015 Conflict 12 12
Pakistan 2005-2010 Conflict + 2005 Kashmir earthquake 13 106
2010-2015 5 47
Panama 1985-1990 Disaster 15 2
Peru 1990-1995 Conflict 7 8
Rwanda
Samoa 2005-2010 Disaster 17 0.2
Syria 2010-2015 Conflict 274 269
Tajikistan 1990-1995 Conflict 44 12
Turkey 1995-2000 1999 Izmit earthquake 14 43
Venezuela 1995-2000 1999 floods and mudslide 26 30

Table 2. Shocks identified as NOT included in WPP 2015 mortality rates
WHO estimated
Country Period Type of shock Deaths/10,000 Deaths ('000)
Armenia 1985-1990 1988 earthquake 105 37
Bangladesh 1990-1995 1991 Bangladesh cyclone 25 142
Columbia 1985-1990 1985 volcanic eruption 16 23
Comoros 1995-2000 Conflict 6 147
Croatia 1995-2000 Conflict 4 1
El Salvador 1985-1990 Conflict 135 34
Georgia 2005-2010 Conflict 6 1
Honduras 1995-2000 1998 Hurricane Mitch 49 15
Kuwait 1990-1995 Conflict 236 22
Myanmar 2005-2010 Cyclone Nargis 2008 56 141
Nepal 2000-2005 Conflict 16 20
WPP2015 estimates of adult mortality for Lebanon were largely based on trends in U5MR and CD West
model life tables. Data on adult mortality from reported household deaths in some recent censuses and
surveys in the regions suggested that adult mortality is often higher than implied by CD west for a given
U5MR, and adult mortality rates for Lebanon were adjusted upwards based on the region-specific
relationship between 45q15, u5mr and income per capita. Additionally, Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan are
three countries with very substantial de facto resident populations of Syrian refugees from 2013
onwards. For years 2013-2015, mortality rates for these three countries were adjusted using a
population weighted average of WPP2015 estimates of the country mx and Syrian mx, using UNHCR
estimates of refugee populations (12).
After preparation of a complete set of “shock-free” period mx for the VR and WPP countries, annual mx
were interpolated and WHO annual estimates of shock mortality added to obtain total mortality rates by
5-year age group, sex and year from 1985-2015.
3.2 Interpolation of mx for high HIV and “Other HIV” countries

For countries with substantial proportion of younger adult deaths (15-60 years) due to HIV, the all-cause
mortality envelopes, trends and age patterns must be consistent with the HIV mortality estimates,
otherwise the “non-HIV envelopes” will have strange and implausible age and/or time trends. This will
then affect most other cause of death estimates.
For development of previous WHO life tables, 43 countries were classified as “high HIV” and explicit
efforts made to ensure consistency of all-cause and HIV mortality estimates. For the WPP 2015, UN
Population Division used Spectrum (13)with input assumptions consistent with those of UNAIDS in mid-
2014 to model all-cause mortality for 21 countries.

Following discussions at the WHO life table working group meeting in New York, October 2015, Avenir
Consulting prepared updated Spectrum models for 1985-2015 that took into account the WPP 2015
revisions to demographic data and all-cause mortality, as well as 2015 UNAIDS files with a range of 2016
updates to the Spectrum/AIM software including new patterns of adult mortality on ART and age at ART
initiation among pediatric patients and the re-fitting of all the EPP curves.
Among the most important Spectum/AIM updates were:
1. Improvements to the EPP model that fits smooth prevalence trends to surveillance and survey
data. The handling of entrants and exists from the population 15-49 was improved to reduce the
differences between the EPP model, which is a single age/sex group, and AIM which divides the
population by sex and single age.
2. The mother-to-child transmission rates were updated by reviewing new studies from the last
three years. This resulting in changes to the probability of transmission from mother-to-child for
some PMTCT regimens.
3. New patterns of mortality for adults on ART were developed by the IeDEA Consortium using
new data from 2011 to 2014. These updated patterns show somewhat higher mortality than the
patterns used last year mainly as a result of the inclusion of more countries in the IeDEA data
set.
4. The pediatric model now has a pattern describing the age distribution of children newly starting
ART. The pattern was derived from data from IeDEA treatment sites. Previously new ART
patients were distributed by age according to need. The new patterns are regional and show
shifts in the distribution by age over time as infant diagnosis has expanded.
For preparation of the WHO life tables, it was also necessary to address issues relating to large mortality
shocks in some countries, and the need to exclude these before interpolating from 5-year period to
annual mortality rates. The following table summarizes WHO analyses of mortality shocks likely
included in the mx estimates for the 43 high HIV and other HIV countries.
Table 3. Shocks identified as included in WPP 2015 mortality rates for HIV countries
WHO estimated
Angola 1985-1990 Conflict 36 19 High HIV
1990-1995 Conflict 65 39 High HIV
Burundi 1995-2000 Conflict 36 12 High HIV
Chad 1985-1990 Conflict 16 4 Other HIV
1990-1995 Conflict 14 5 Other HIV
Congo 1995-2000 Conflict 191 28 High HIV
DR Congo 1995-2000 Conflict 33 75 Other HIV
Rwanda 1990-1995 Conflict 1567 512 High HIV

Table 4. Shocks identified as NOT included in WPP 2015 mortality rates for HIV countries
WHO estimated
Angola 1985-1990 Conflict 36 19 High HIV
Cameroon 1985-1990 1986 Lake Nyos Gas Disaster 0.3 2 High HIV
Djibouti 1990-1995 Conflict 17 1 Other HIV
Central African Republic 2010-2015 Conflict 25 6 High HIV
Eritrea 1995-2000 Conflict 224 37 Other HIV
Ethiopia 1985-1990 Conflict 23 50 High HIV
Haiti 2005-2010 2010 Earthquake 14 188 Other HIV
Table 5. UN Model life table systems (UNMLT) used for non-HIV mortality estimates in HIV countries
High HIV countries UNMLT Other HIV countries UNMLT

Angola CD North Burkina Faso CD North
Burundi CD North Côte d'Ivoire CD North
Botswana CD West Ghana CD North
Central African Republic CD North Guinea CD North
Cameroon CD North Haiti CD North
Congo CD North Liberia CD North
Ethiopia CD North Mali CD North
Gabon CD North Nigeria CD North
Equatorial Guinea CD North Chad CD North
Kenya CD North Togo CD North
Lesotho CD West Thailand UN Far_East_A sian
Mozambique CD North
Malawi CD South
Namibia CD West
Rwanda CD North
Swaziland CD West
United Republic of Tanzania CD North
Uganda CD North
South Africa UN Far_East_Asian
Zambia CD North
Zimbabwe CD North

For high HIV countries, provisional non-HIV mx were calculated from the model life table assumptions
and e0 series provided by UN Population Division. We added estimates of HIV death rates based on the
revised Spectrum models to the non-HIV mx to recomputed total mortality mx. This led to consequential
changes in trends and/or levels of all-cause 45q15 for a number of countries. To reduce these
differences and to smooth trends for non-HIV mortality, revised model life tables for non-HIV mortality
were prepared for 8 countries: Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Gabon, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi,
Mozambique, and Rwanda. The model life table assumptions for the high HIV countries are shown in
Table 5. Some adjustments to individual period mx were also required for 8 countries to take into
account mortality shocks. In the case of South Africa, all-cause death registration data adjusted for
completeness was also used to assess levels of all-cause mortality, resulting in HIV mortality estimates
somewhat lower than UNAIDS and WPP2015 estimates.
For “other HIV countries”, we subtracted the revised Spectrum modelled HIV mortality rates from the
WPP2015 all-cause mortality rates and examined the consistency and plausibility of the resulting non-
HIV mortality time trends, age trends and sex ratios. Provisional WHO mx were calculated by smoothing
the implied non-HIV mortality trends and adding back the UNAIDS HIV mortality estimates. For problems
with isolated periods in 8 countries, the mx for the period were revised by interpolation. For the
following 11 countries, adjusted 45q15 time series were used to revise the model life tables for non-HIV
mortality: Burkina Faso (females only), Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Haiti, Liberia, Mali, Nigeria,
Togo and Thailand (males only). The model life table assumptions for the “Other HIV” countries are
shown in Table 5.
Figure 3. Comparison of HIV mortality rates for 2010 for Scatterplots of resulting 45q15 (non-HIV and
GHE2015 versus GHE2013 total) identified implausibly low mortality levels
600
for Tanzania in most recent years. The most
500
HIV_high recent publicly available empirical mortality
"HIV_med" Lesotho
pattern available for Tanzania (based on
HIV deaths per 100,000 (GHE2015)
400 reported household deaths in the 2012 census)

Swaziland
was also consistent with a higher 45q15 than the
300 WPP2015 estimate. This derived from an
Mozambique
estimated rapid decline of child mortality in
200
Zambia recent years, used to predict adult non-HIV
mortality from the model life table for WPP2015.
100
The most recent publicly available empirical
0
mortality pattern available for Tanzania (based
0 100 200 300 400 500
HIV deaths per 100,000 (GHE2013)
600 700
on reported household deaths in the 2012
census) was also consistent with a higher 45q15
than the WPP2015 estimate. Trends in adult 45q15 for Tanzania were revised to reduce the acceleration
in rate of decline, drawing also on IHME analyses of non-HIV mortality for Tanzania (14).

4 Adjustments using death registration data
The WPP2015 life tables draw extensively on available death registration data to assess age-specific
mortality rates mx. For 21 countries with high quality and complete death registration data, they make
use of life tables prepared for the Human Mortality Database (15, 16), which corrects for age
misstatement at older age groups.
WHO holds time series of death registration data for around 100 countries (5). These potentially
provide alternate data for preparing annual life tables, or additional data that would assist in imputation
from period life tables. For 85 countries with at least 75% of the years in range 1990-2015 available, we
evaluated the completeness of the all-cause deaths data and used completeness-adjusted death rates to
inform the imputation of annual death rates for life tables.
4.1 Updated assessments of VR completeness

Until now, WHO has used population data reported by Member States for the population covered by
death registration as the denominator for calculation of all-cause mortality rates, and has then
computed total numbers of deaths by applying these rates to WPP population estimates for the de-facto
resident population. This can result in completeness estimates varying from 100% for high income
countries, and to estimated total deaths lower than registered deaths. Additionally, country-reported
population data are not available for a substantial proportion of country-years in some regions.
For this revision of completeness estimates, we have switched to use of WPP2015 population estimates
as denominators. Implied completeness of death registration data has then been assessed against WPP
2015 by comparing reported registered deaths against the total deaths implied by the WPP life tables
for 5-year periods.
There are five countries where registered deaths reported to WHO do not include a province or territory
not under government control. These are:
Cyprus: all data refer to government controlled areas

Georgia: excluding Abkhazia and South Osetia
Moldova: excluding Transnistria and Bender
Russia: 1993-2003 data exclude Chechnya
Serbia: excluding Kosovo-Metohija province
Singapore does not report deaths for non-citizen residents, who represent approximately 30% of the de-
facto population. A number of European countries similarly exclude non-citizen residents from data
reported to WHO those these typically amount to at most a few percent of the de-facto resident
population. For these two groups of countries, the new method potentially results in lower
completeness against UN estimates of resident population.
Overall completeness levels for ages 15+ were estimated by sex and compared with completeness
estimates from IHME derived using an ensemble of death distribution methods (17,18) and with
previous WHO completeness estimates based on WHO application of the Generalized Brass Growth-
Balance and Bennett-Horiuchi methods for the 1990s and early 2000s. For the 85 countries with VR time

series, adult completeness was assessed by comparing total registered deaths for persons aged 15 years
and over in each five year period with 5-year period deaths for ages 15+ calculated from the WPP2015
life table mx together with WPP2015 population estimates for the 5-year periods. For 5-year periods
covering only 4 years of death registration data, total registered deaths for the missing year was
interpolated or extrapolated. For 5-year periods covering 2 or 3 years of death registration data,
completeness was assessed against the total deaths calculated from the corresponding annual lifetables
interpolated from WPP2015. In most cases, where a beginning or end period contained only 1 year of
death registration data, this was excluded from the analysis.
Adjustments to estimated completeness levels were made for some countries as follows:
Guyana: Prior to 1995, IHME estimates of completeness were used
Israel: inclusion of East Jerusalem from 1980 onwards would result in apparent completeness of 1.06-
1.07 against WPP2015. Completeness was truncated at 1.0
Malta: completeness assessed against WPP2015 exceeded 1.0 for all except most recent years.
Completeness was truncated at 1.0.
Mauritius: completeness assessed against WPP2015 exceeded 1.0 for all except most recent years. The
deaths reported to WHO include all of Mauritius except for the island of Rodrigues.
Completeness for Mauritius was thus revised to 0.974.
Russia: Deaths in Chechnya are missing from the data reported to WHO for years 1993-2003
(corresponding to approximately 1% incompleteness). Assessed completeness was slightly less
than 0.99 for most of this period, and was revised to 1.0 for males in 1990-1995 period, when it
slightly exceeded 1.0.
Suriname: Prior to 1995-2000, previous WHO estimates of completeness were used
For a number of other countries mainly in Eastern Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean,
completeness estimates fluctuated both above and below 1.0. Apparent completeness above 100%
may reflect issues with the numerator for registered deaths, which can vary in some country-years in
term of (a) "year of occurrence vs year of registration", (b) "provisional vs. final", (c), de-jure vs. de-facto
or (d) inclusion of nationals only (as in Japan and several EU countries). It may also reflect mismatches
with denominators resulting from issues around the estimation of the "de-facto" population and the
inclusion of migrants and refugees in the countries (irrespective of their legal status). For country-
periods where estimated completeness exceeded 1.05, it was capped at 1.05.
After these adjustments, annual completeness estimates were smoothly interpolated from the 5-year
period completeness estimates. Rising and falling projections for latest partial 5-year period were
adjusted to avoid out-of-sample trends. In a number of cases where completeness rates for the last 5-
year period rose above 100%, completeness was capped at 100%. Identification of out of sample trends
was also informed by examination of IHME estimates of completeness trends (18). Annex C compares
the resulting final completeness time series for countries with previous estimates by WHO and IHME.
Annex Table D lists estimated completeness for the most recent year of death registration data for each
Member State meeting inclusion criteria.

4.2 Revision of imputed annual death rates
The WPP2015 life tables based on death registration data included adjustments for age mis-statement
and under-reporting at older ages based on analyses carried out by the Human Mortality Database
(15,16), analyses for consistency with population age structures and use of the Kannisto-Thatcher
method for assessing oldest age mortality rates (19). For this reason, we did not simply apply the
completeness estimated for ages 15+ to all VR deaths for those ages, but carried out a second
assessment of completeness against the WPP2015 life tables, for each sex separately for age groups 5-
9,10-14, 15-69, 70-79, 80-84, 85+.
Smoothly varying annual completeness estimates for years 1985-2015 were imputed using PCHIP
interpolation (8,9). The age-sex specific completeness estimates were assumed constant outside the
lower and upper period mid-points for the available VR years for each country. Age-specific
completeness estimates for age groups 70-74 and 75-79 were then imputed to ensure a smooth
transition between earlier and older age groups. Finally, the imputed age-sex specific completeness
estimates were adjusted to match the sex-specific completeness for ages 15+. Completeness for age
groups 5-9 and 10-14 was capped at 100%.
For 7 countries with less than 1 million population in 2000-2015, VR death rates were smoothed using a
3-year moving average. Annual mx for ages 5+ were calculated for each VR country-year as:
mx = VR deaths /(WPP population estimate)/(annual age-sex-specific completeness estimate)
While most VR countries had data up to 2012 or 2013, only a few had reported data to WHO for 2014,
and none for 2015 at the time of analysis (early 2016). VR-based mx estimates for age groups from 5-9
onwards were projected forward using Poisson regression to estimate the trend in latest 10 years of VR
data. Importance weights declining by a factor of 0.85 for each earlier year from last were used to give
greater weight to more recent trend. Estimated annual rates of change (ARR) for 5-year age groups were
smoothed across age groups using a 3-age group moving average. ARRs not statistically significant were
capped within the range of statistically significant ARRs across age groups. The mx values were projected
forward to 2015 using an ARR that changed smoothly from the VR-based ARR estimate to the WPP2015-
based ARR over a six year period. For most countries, this means that the 2015 estimated mx are quite
strongly influenced by the trends in the recent VR data, where for the handful of countries where the
latest year was earlier than 2009, the VR trend converged to the WPP trend over the project period.
Annual mx for all age groups from 5-9 onwards were replaced by the VR-based estimates and
projections for VR countries for which completeness analyses were carried out with the exception of the
following five countries: Singapore, Cyprus, Kuwait, Malaysia and Sri Lanka These five countries had
partial VR coverage and/or major fluctuations in implied completeness estimates (see Annex C).

5 Neonatal, Infant and Under-five mortality
Mortality rates for infants and age group 1-4 years for the WHO life tables were derived from the UN-
IGME estimates of infant mortality rates (IMR) and under 5 mortality rates (U5MR) by sex, for Member
States for years 1990-2015 (20). The United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality
Estimation (UN IGME), which includes UNICEF, WHO, the World Bank and United Nations Population
Division, was established in 2004 to advance the work on monitoring progress towards the achievement
of Millennium Development Goals regarding child mortality.
UN-IGME annually assesses and adjusts all available surveys, censuses and vital registration data, to
estimate country-specific trends in neonatal (NMR), infant (IMR) and under 5 (U5MR) mortality rates per
1,000 live births. All data sources and estimates are documented on the website
www.childmortality.org. For countries with complete recording of child deaths in death registration
systems, these are used as the source of data for the estimation of trends in neonatal, infant and child
mortality. For countries with incomplete death registration, all other available census and survey data
sources, which meet quality criteria, are used.
Due to fewer data available by sex than data for both sexes, UN IGME uses available data by sex to
estimates time trend in the sex ratio (male/female) of U5MR. Leontine Alkema and Fengqing Chao of the
National University of Singapore have developed new Bayesian methods for the UN IGME estimation of
sex ratios, with a focus on the estimation and identification of countries with outlying levels or trends
(21).
6 WHO estimates of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy

6.1 Life expectancy
Final estimates of age-sex-specific mortality rates for years 1990-2015 were used to compute abridged
life tables for 183 WHO Member States with population of 90,000 or greater in 2015. Life expectancies
at birth were reported in World Health Statistics 2016: and full life tables are available in the WHO
Global Health Observatory (www.who.int/gho). Annex E presents country plots showing the resulting
WHO annual estimates of 45q15 by sex for all-cause mortality and for non-HIV mortality excluding
disasters and conflict deaths. Five year period estimates of 45q15 from the WPP2015 life tables are
shown for comparison.
WHO applies standard methods to the analysis of Member State data to ensure comparability of
estimates across countries. This will inevitably result in differences for some Member States with official
estimates for quantities such as life expectancy, where a variety of different projection methods and
other methods are used. These WHO estimates of mortality and life expectancies should not be
regarded as the nationally endorsed statistics of Member States, which may have been derived using
alternative methodologies and assumptions.
INSERT SUMMARY OF DATA AVAILABILITY HERE
There remain substantial data gaps and deficiencies in data on levels of child and adult mortality,
particularly in those regions with the highest mortality levels. Quantifiable uncertainty ranges for adult
mortality are more complex to derive, and there is considerable research underway to develop

improved methods for measuring adult mortality in surveys, and in assessing the systematic biases in
such data. Table 6 summarizes the availability of data on levels of all-cause mortality for WHO Member
States and the methods used to assess mortality and life expectancy.
Table 6 Data availability for all-cause mortality
Number of WHO Percentage of global

a b
Available recent data (since 2005) Member States deaths 2015 Methods
c
Complete death-registration data 59 28 Observed death rates
Incomplete death-registration data 38 25 Adjusted death rates
Other population-representative data on age- 18 (3) 25 Estimated death rates and
d
specific mortality model life table systems
Data on child (under 5 years) and 30 (18) 12 Estimated death rates and
d
adult (15–59 years) mortality only model life table systems
d
Data on child mortality only 37 (22) 10 Model life table systems
No recent data 1 <1 Projected from data for
years before 2005
a
Only includes 183 Member States with population above 90 000 in 2015.
b
Percentage of global deaths that occur in the countries included in each category – not the percentage registered or included in datasets.
c
Completeness of 90% or greater for de facto resident population; as assessed by WHO and the United Nations, Population Division, 2016.
d
Numbers in parenthesis show the number of high HIV prevalence countries for which multistate epidemiological modelling for HIV mortality
was also carried out.
A qualititative guide to the uncertainty in adult mortality and life expectancy estimates is provided by
the listing of methods and data input types in Annex Table A. The most reliable estimates are those
based on death registration data assessed as complete, followed by those based on incomplete or
sample death registration data with adjustments for levels of completeness. For countries without
useable death registration data, uncertainties are substantially higher, and two categories can be
distinguished (a) those countries where there is independent evidence on adult mortality rates from
surveys or censuses and (b) those where estimates of adult mortality levels are derived from model life
tables with estimated infant and child mortality rates as inputs. Those countries with significant levels
of mortality due to conflict and natural disasters (say, greater than 1 death per 10,000 population per
annum) will usually have additional uncertainty associated with the difficulties in estimating conflict and
disaster death rates.
6.2 Healthy life expectancy

WHO has previously published estimates of healthy life expectancy (HLE or HALE) for years 2000 and
2012, drawing on the previous WHO life table series and estimates of years lost to disability (YLD) for
disease and injury causes from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD2010) study (22-24).
The same methods have been used to prepare estimates of healthy life expectancy for WHO Member
States for the year 2015 (2), using the updated WHO life tables and projections of YLD for year 2015
based on YLD estimates for 2010 and 2013 from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 (GBD2013)
study(25), with similar adjustments to disability weights and prevalences for certain causes as previously
(22).

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Annex Table A: Data sources and methods for WHO Life Tables
WPP2015 methods for estimation of age-sex-specific mortality GHE2015 WHO MBD VR

Member State ratesa Life table method method years available
Afghanistan Estimated using the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD West relational wpp -
and three parameters: (1-2) direct and indirect estimates of infant and child model for non-HIV
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15). Adjusted mortality
estimates of adult mortality were derived from: (a) recent household
deaths data from the 1979 census; (b) implied relationship between child
mortality and adult mortality based on the UN South Asian and West model
of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables; and (c) levels of adult mortality
based on sample registration data from neighbouring countries for recent
years. Estimates of adult mortality derived from (i) recent household deaths
data from the 2010 Afghanistan Mortality Survey (AMS), (ii) parental
orphanhood from the 2010 AMS (excluding the Southern region), and (iii)
siblings deaths from the 2010 AMS (excluding the Southern region) adjusted
for age misreporting and recall biases were also considered.
Angola Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV -
age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of the Coale-Demeny tables for non-HIV
Model Life Tables. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into mortality
the mortality estimates.
Albania Based on life tables for 1987-2013 derived from registered deaths by age Death registration data vr 1980, 1984-2009
and sex and observed trends in infant and child mortality.
United Arab Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data wpp 2003, 2005-2010
Emirates enumerated census population by age and sex from 1988 through 2010,
adjusted for infant and child mortality. Mortality rates for older ages were
adjusted.
Argentina Based on registered deaths from 1950 through 2013, and the underlying Death registration data vr 1980-2013
population from censuses, and revised projections by the National Statistics
Office (INDEC). The number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-
balance method.
Armenia Based on: (a) a life table derived from reported deaths by age and sex in Death registration data vr 1981-2012
2011 and the 2011 census population, adjusted for underreporting of infant
and child deaths, and (b) official estimates of life expectancy available from
2006 through 2013.
Antigua and Based on official estimates of life expectancy from 2000 to 2010. Death registration data wpp 1983-2009, 2012-
Barbuda 2013
Australia Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2009. The Death registration data vr 1980-2012
age pattern of mortality is based on life tables through 2009 from the
Human Mortality Database.
Austria Based on official estimates of life expectancy at birth through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2014
Azerbaijan Based on deaths registered through 2012 classified by age and sex and the Death registration data vr 1981-2011
underlying population by age and sex. Death rates were adjusted for
underregistration.
Burundi Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV -
model life tables, and taking into account the number of deaths due to civil
mortality
strife. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality
estimates.
Belgium Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Benin Estimated using the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD North relational Other HIV -
and implied relationships between life expectancy at birth and estimates of model for non-HIV
infant and child mortality, and between life expectancy at birth and
mortality
estimates of adult mortality (45q15). The adjusted estimates of 45q15 were
derived from: (a) parental orphanhood from the 1981/83 multiround survey
and 2002 census, and (b) siblings deaths from the 1996, 2002 and 2006

DHS.
Burkina Faso Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15). Data from mortality
West African rural demographic surveillance sites and urban vital
registration were also considered. Adjusted estimates of adult mortality
were derived from: (a) recent household deaths data (unadjusted and
adjusted for underregistration using the growth-balance and synthetic-
extinct generation methods) from the 1960/61 survey, 1976, 1985, 1996
and 2006 censuses, the 1991 National Demographic Survey, and 2008
Global Fund survey; (b) parental orphanhood from the 1993, 2003 and
2010/11 DHS, 2006 MICS3 and 2006 census; (c) siblings deaths from the
1998/99, 2003 and 2010/11 DHS; (d) intercensal survivorship from
successive census age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for
periods 1976-1985, 1985-1996 and 1996-2006.
Bangladesh Based on life tables derived from age and sex-specific mortality rates from: Death registration data wpp 1980-1982, 1984-
(a) the Sample Vital Registration System from 1981 up to 2010 adjusted for 1986
infant and child mortality, (b) the 1974 Retrospective Survey of Fertility and
Mortality, and (c) the 1962/65 Population Growth Estimation Experiment.
Estimates are consistent with those from the 2001 and 2010 Bangladesh
Maternal Mortality Surveys (based on sibling histories and household
deaths in the preceding 36 months), and data gathered from Matlab Health
and Demographic Surveillance System up to 2012. For the period 1970-
1975, mortality was adjusted to take into account the excess mortality
associated with the 1971 civil war and independence from Pakistan, and the
1974 flood and famine.
Bulgaria Based on official life tables through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Bahrain Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data wpp 1980-2013
enumerated census population by age and sex from 1980 to 2012, adjusted and CD South model life
for infant and child mortality. Mortality rates for older ages were adjusted.
tables
For the period 1950-1980, life tables were derived from estimates of infant
and child mortality by assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms
to the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955,
and converges over time toward the estimated 1980-1985 life table.
Bahamas Derived from child and adult mortality estimates through 2013 by assuming Death registration data Other HIV 1980-2012
that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale- and CD West relational
Demeny Model Life Tables. model, adjusted for
UNAIDS estimates of HIV
mortality
Bosnia and Based on official estimates of life expectancy for 1988/89 and WHO Death registration data vr 1985-1991, 1998-
Herzegovina estimates for years 2000 to 2012. The estimates of war-related deaths in 2011
the period 1992-1995 were also considered.
Belarus Based on official life tables available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1981-2009, 2011-
2012
Belize Estimated using the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables and Death registration data Other HIV 1980-2013
two parameters: (a) estimates of child mortality; and (b) adjusted estimates and CD West relational
of adult mortality from registered deaths and underlying population model, adjusted for
through 2009. From 1950 to 1995, estimated using adjusted registered
deaths by age and sex and underlying population by age and sex.
UNAIDS estimates of HIV
mortality
Bolivia Based on life tables derived from: (a) deaths by age and sex, adjusted using Survey, census and vr 2000-2003
(Plurinational the growth-balance method, and underlying population from the 1992, death registration data
2001 and 2012 censuses; (b) data on maternal orphanhood from the 1988
State of)
National Population and Housing Survey (ENPV); (c) official estimates of life
expectancy for 2010 and 2011; and (d) estimates of infant and child
mortality from the 2000 MICS and the 1989, 1994, 1998, 2003 and 2008
DHS.
Brazil Based on life tables derived from: (a) registered deaths by age and sex from Death registration data vr 1980-2013
1979 through 2012, and the underlying census population by age and sex,
and (b) estimates of infant and child mortality. The number of deaths was

adjusted using the growth-balance method.
Barbados Derived from estimates of child mortality and adult mortality from vital Death registration data vr 1980-2012
registration data through 2007 by assuming that the age pattern of and CD West model life
mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life tables
Tables.
Brunei Derived from child and adult mortality estimates through 2011 by assuming CD West relational vr 1982-2013
Darussalam that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale- model for non-HIV
Demeny Model Life Tables. Life tables are estimated using the Flexible two-
mortality
dimensional model life table and Lee-Carter method.
Bhutan Based on a life table derived from adjusted deaths in the past 12 months by Survey, census data and wpp -
age and sex, and the population by age and sex from the 2005 census, CD West Model life
adjusted for infant and child mortality. For 1950-2000, life tables were
tables
derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the
age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny
Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and converges over time toward the
estimated 2000-2005 life table. Life tables based on adjusted annual deaths
from the 1994 National Health Survey were also considered.
Botswana Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life High HIV 1995
age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny tables for non-HIV
Model Life Tables. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into
mortality
Central African Estimated using the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD North relational High HIV 1988
Republic and implied relationships between life expectancy at birth and estimates of model for non-HIV
infant, child, and adult (45q15) mortality. The adjusted estimates of adult
mortality
mortality were derived from (a) intercensal survivorship from successive
census age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for the period of
1988-2000; (b) household deaths data (unadjusted and adjusted for
underregistration using the growth-balance and synthetic-extinct
generation methods) from the 1988 census; (c) parental orphanhood data
from the 1994/95 DHS and the 1988 census; and (d) siblings deaths from
the 1994/95 DHS. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into
Canada Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2011. The Death registration data vr 1980-2011
Switzerland Based on official life tables from through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Chile Based on life tables derived from registered deaths, and population by age Death registration data vr 1980-2013
and sex from 1950 to 2013 adjusted for infant and child mortality. The
number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance method,
China Based on life tables from: (a) the 1981, 1990, 2000 and 2010 censuses Survey, census and wpp 1995-2000
(adjusted for underestimation of child mortality and overestimation of old- sample death
age mortality); (b) surveys on causes of death in 1973/75 and 2004/05; (c) registration data
Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system from 1991 to 2013; and (d) 1987,
1995 and 2005 population survey (1 per cent), and the annul survey on
population change (1 per thousand).
Côte d'Ivoire Estimated using the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD North relational Other HIV 1998
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15). Adult
mortality
mortality estimates are derived from (a) recent household deaths data from
the 1978/79 follow-up survey, the 1998 census and the 2005 EIS, (b) parental
orphanhood from the 1978/79 follow-up survey, the 1988 and
1998 censuses, the 1994 DHS, the 2000 MICS2 and the 2006 MICS3 surveys,
(c) siblings deaths from the 1994 DHS and the 2005 EIS; (d) implied
relationship between child mortality and adult mortality based on the South
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and assumed
to converge over time toward the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model
Life Tables by the 1970s.
Cameroon Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV 1987
mortality

Democratic Derived from (a) estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that CD North model life Other HIV -
Republic of the the age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of the Coale- tables
Demeny Model Life Tables, and (b) data on survival of siblings from the
Congo
2007 and 2013/14 DHS.
Congo Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life High HIV -
Colombia Based on life tables derived from registered deaths, and population by age Death registration data vr 1982-2012
and sex from 1950 to 2013, adjusted for infant and child mortality. The
number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance method.
Comoros Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality, and the West model of CD West model life wpp -
the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables. tables
Cabo Verde Derived from estimates of child mortality, by assuming that the age pattern CD West model life wpp -
of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life tables
Tables. Official estimates of life expectancy at birth by sex for 1990 and
2000 were also considered.
Costa Rica Based on life tables derived from registered deaths, adjusted using the Death registration data vr 1980-2013
growth-balance method, and population by age and sex from 1950 to 2013
adjusted for infant and child mortality.
Cuba Based on: (a) deaths registered through 2012 classified by age and sex and Death registration data vr 1980-2013
the underlying population by age and sex, and (b) estimates of infant and
child mortality. The number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-
balance method.
Cyprus Based on: (a) official life tables; (b) deaths registered through 2013 Death registration data wpp 1980-2012
classified by age and sex and on the underlying population by age and sex;
and (c) estimates from other areas were also considered.
Czech Republic Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013. The Death registration data vr 1982-2013
age pattern of mortality is based on official life tables for 1950-2013.
Germany Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2013
Djibouti Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life Other HIV 1991
age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of the Coale-Demeny tables
Model Life Tables.
Denmark Based on official life tables available through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Dominican Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2011, and Survey, census and vr 1980-1992, 1994-
Republic underlying mid-year population; (b) estimates of infant and child mortality death registration data 2012
from 2000, 2006, and 2014 (preliminary) Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
(MICS); (c) estimates of infant and child mortality from the 1986, 1991,
1996, 2002, 2007 and 2013 DHS. The number of deaths was adjusted using
the growth-balance method.
Algeria Based on official estimates of life expectancy derived from the number of Death registration data wpp 1980-1982, 1985-
deaths registered through 2013. Estimates were adjusted for under- 1986, 1998, 2000
reporting of deaths and deaths of non-nationals. From 1950 to 2000, the
age patterns of mortality are derived from estimates of infant and child
mortality by assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the
mortality patterns resulting from the blending from the South model of the
Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables to the West model of the Coale-Demeny
Model Life Tables from 1950 to 2000.
Ecuador Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex from 1954 to 2011, with Death registration data vr 1980-2013
underlying mid-year population; (b) estimates from the 1989, 1994, 1999
and 2004 ENDEMAIN, and the 1987 ENDESA; and (c) estimates from the
1950, 1962, 1974, 1982, 1990, 2001 and 2010 censuses. The number of
deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance method.
Egypt Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013. The Death registration data vr 1980-1981, 1983-
age pattern of mortality is based on official life tables for various years from 2013
1960 to 2012 adjusted for infant and child mortality, and adult mortality.
Eritrea Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life Other HIV -
Model Life Tables.

Spain Based on: (a) official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013; Death registration data vr 1980-2013
(b) registered deaths by age and sex through 2012 and underlying
population by age and sex; (c) estimates from the Human Mortality
Database; and (d) estimates from Eurostat were also considered.
Estonia Based on official life tables available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1981-2012
Ethiopia Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV 1984
Finland Based on official life tables available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2013
Fiji Based on: (a) official 1976, 1986, 1996, 2001 and 2007 estimates, and (b) Death registration data wpp 1980-1987, 1992-
deaths by age and sex registered from 1950 through 2007. 2009, 2011-2012
France Based on official life tables through 2012. vr 1980-2012
Micronesia Based on estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the age CD West model life wpp -
(Federated pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny tables
States of) Model Life Tables.
Gabon Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV -
United Kingdom Based on: (a) official life tables for 2010-2012, and (b) life tables derived Death registration data vr 1980-2013
from official estimates of registered deaths and population from 1950 to
2011.
Georgia Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012, Death registration data vr 1981-2014
adjusted for underregistration.
Ghana Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD North relational Other HIV -
mortality
mortality estimates were derived from: (a) recent female household deaths
data from the 2007 Ghana Maternal Health Survey; (b) parental
orphanhood from the 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 DHS as well as 2006
MICS3 survey; (c) siblings deaths from the 2007 Ghana Maternal Health
Survey; and (d) implied relationship between child mortality and adult
mortality based on the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life
Tables.
Guinea Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15) derived from mortality
(a) recent household deaths data from the 1954-1955 Demographic Survey,
and the 1983 and 1996 censuses; (b) parental orphanhood from the
1999 and 2005 DHS ; (c) siblings deaths from the 1999, 2005 and 2012 DHS ;
(d) implied relationship between child mortality and adult mortality based
on the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955
and assumed to converge over time toward the South model of the Coale-
Demeny Model Life Tables by the 1990s. Data from West African rural
demographic surveillance sites and urban vital registration were also
considered, including from the 1957 Urban Survey (Konkoure).
Gambia Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables and CD South relational Other HIV -
three parameters: (1-2) direct and indirect estimates of infant and child model for non-HIV
mortality
mortality was derived from the relationship to child mortality implied by the
North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables. Adult mortality
estimates derived from recent household deaths data from the 1973
census, and from parental orphanhood from the 1973, 1983 and 2003
censuses, 2001 Baseline Survey in Lower, Central and Upper River Divisions,
2000 and 2005/06 MICS surveys and rural demographic surveillance sites
were also considered. The results of the 2013 DHS were considered.

Guinea-Bissau Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality
mortality estimates were derived from (a) parental orphanhood from the
2000 and 2006 MICS surveys, and (b) implied relationship between child
mortality and adult mortality based on the North model of the Coale-
Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and assumed to converge over
time toward the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables by
the 1990s. Data from West African rural demographic surveillance sites
(e.g., Bandim) and urban vital registration were also considered.
Equatorial Estimated using the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD North relational High HIV -
Guinea and implied relationships between life expectancy at birth and estimates of model for non-HIV
infant and child mortality and between life expectancy at birth and
mortality
derived from (a) parental orphanhood data from the 2000 MICS; and (b)
intercensal survivorship from successive census age distributions (smoothed
and unsmoothed) for the period of 1983-1994. The demographic impact of
AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates.
Greece Based on official life tables available through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Grenada Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp 1985-2013
age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny tables
Model Life Tables.
Guatemala Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex and the underlying mid-year Death registration data vr 1980-1981, 1983-
population by age and sex through 2013; (b) age-sex-specific death rates 2013
from the 1995, 1998/99, 2002 and 2008/09 Encuestas Nacionales de Salud
Materno Infantil (ENSMI); (c) age-sex-specific death rates from the 1987 and
1989 Encuestas Nacionales Socio-demográficas (ENSD); and (d) death rates
by age and sex from the 1950, 1964, 1973, 1981, 1994 and 2002 censuses.
The number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance method.
Guyana Derived from child and adult mortality estimates through 2010 by assuming CD West relational vr 1984, 1988-2011
that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale- model for non-HIV
Demeny Model Life Tables. Adult mortality estimates based on the Global mortality
Burden of Disease Study 2010 were considered.
Honduras Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex and the underlying mid-year Survey, census and wpp 1980-1983, 1987-
population by age and sex from 1950 through 1983 and from 2000 through death registration data 1990, 2008-2013
2011; (b) ages-sex-specific death rates from the 2005/06 and 2011/12
ENDESA (DHS); (c) ages-sex-specific death rates from the 1991/92, 1996 and
2001 ENESF; (d) ages-sex-specific death rates from the 1987 EFHS, the 1984
MCH/PF, the 1971/72 and 1983 EDENH, the 1981 National Contraceptive
Prevalence Survey (EPAH); and (e) estimates from the 1974, 1988 and 2001
censuses. The number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance
method.
Croatia Based on deaths registered through 2013 by age and sex and the underlying Death registration data vr 1982-2013
population by age and sex.
Haiti Based on: (a) estimates from the 1987, 1994/95, 2000 and 2005/06 DHS; (b) Survey, census and Other HIV 1980, 1997, 1999,
estimates from the 1982 and 2003 censuses, (c) registered deaths by age and death registration data 2001-2004
sex adjusted for incompleteness using the growth-balance method and the
1971 census population by age and sex; and (d) estimates from the
1977 Enquête Haitienne sur la Fécondité (EHF).
Hungary Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013. The Death registration data vr 1980-2013
age pattern of mortality is based on official life tables for through 2013.
Indonesia Derived from estimates of infant, child, adult and old-age mortality. Adult CD North relational wpp -
and old age mortality estimates are based on: (a) the 2002/03, 2007 and model for non-HIV
2012 DHS, (b) the 1990, 2000 and 2010 censuses, and (c) the 2007/08
mortality
Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), and (d) the SUSENAS surveys (National
Socio-economic Surveys).
India Based on life tables derived from age and sex-specific mortality rates from Death registration data wpp 1988-2008
the Sample Registration System from 1968-1969 up to 2013 adjusted for
infant and child mortality, and for adult death underregistration by using
the growth-balance and synthetic-extinct generation methods.
Ireland Based on official estimates of life expectancy through 2009. Death rates Death registration data vr 1980-2012
estimated from 2010 to 2012 were also considered.

Iran (Islamic Based on life tables derived from age and sex-specific mortality rates from Death registration data wpp 1983-1984, 1986,
Republic of) (a) registered 2000-2012 annual deaths adjusted for infant and child 1991, 1995-1999,
mortality, and for adult death underregistration using the growth-balance
2001, 2005-2008
and synthetic-extinct generation methods; (b) the 1956-1966 intercensal
survival, 1973/76 Population Growth Survey, 1976, 1986 and 1991
censuses, and 2000 Demographic and Health Survey; and (c) estimates of
infant and child mortality by assuming that the age pattern of mortality
conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables. For
1980-1988, excess mortality due to the war was factored in the overall
mortality levels based on the PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset version 3.0,
released in October 2009.
Iraq Estimated using the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD West model life wpp 1987-1989, 2008
and three parameters: (1-2) direct and indirect estimates of infant and child tables
mortality estimates are derived from: (a) recent household deaths data
from the 1973/74 Demographic Sample Survey and Sample Registration,
and 1999 Child and Maternal Mortality Survey (female only); (b) parental
orphanhood from the 1997 census, 2004 Iraq Living Conditions Survey and
2006 MICS3; (c) siblings deaths from the 1990 Iraq Immunization,
Diarrhoeal Disease, Maternal and Childhood Mortality Survey (female only),
and the 2006/07 Iraq Family Health Survey; (d) intercensal survivorship
from successive census age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for
periods 1957-1965, 1965-1977, 1977-1987 and 1987-1997; (e) implied
relationship between child mortality and adult mortality based on the West
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables. For 1980-1988, excess
mortality due to the war was factored in the overall mortality levels based
on the PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset version 3.0, released in October 2009. For
2000-2005 and 2005-2010, excess mortality due to the war was
factored in the overall mortality levels; there is a high level of uncertainty in
the current estimates. The estimated numbers of war related deaths, as
provided by the Iraqi Ministry of Health, have also been taken into account.
Iceland Based on official life tables available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Israel Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data vr 1980-2014
enumerated census population by age and sex from 1948 to 2013. Mortality
rates for older ages were adjusted.
Italy Based on: (a) life tables for 2010, 2011 and 2012 from the National Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Statistical Office (Istat) and Eurostat; (b) life tables through 2005-2009 from
the Human Mortality Database.
Jamaica Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2005, adjusted for Census and death Other HIV 1980-1991, 1996-
underreporting of infant and child deaths; (b) official estimates for 1991, registration data 2011
2002, 2003 and 2006; and (c) estimates from the 2001 and 2011 censuses.
Jordan Estimated using the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD West model life wpp 2003-2004, 2008-
and three parameters: (1-2) direct and indirect estimates of infant and child tables 2011
mortality, and (3) estimates of adult mortality (45q15) implied by the
relationship between child mortality and adult mortality based on the South
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and assumed to
converge over time toward the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model
Life Tables by the 1980s. Life tables based on the 1961 and 1979 censuses,
1972 National Fertility Survey and 1976 WFS, indirect estimates of adult
mortality based on widowhood data from the 1961 and 1979 censuses and
1976 WFS, as well as parental orphanhood from the 1976 WFS and 1981
Demographic Survey were also taken into account.
Japan Based on life tables derived from official estimates through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2013
Kazakhstan Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2008 Death registration data vr 1981-2010, 2012
adjusted for underreporting of infant and child mortality. The age pattern of
mortality is derived from a life table based on 2010-2013 data.

Kenya Estimated using the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD North relational High HIV -
infant and child mortality and between life expectancy at birth and
mortality
derived from: (a) household deaths data (unadjusted and adjusted for
underregistration using the growth-balance and synthetic-extinct generation
methods) from the 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999 and 2009 censuses; (b) parental
orphanhood from the 1983, 1989, 1993, 1998, 2003, and
2008/09 Kenya DHS, the 1977 World Fertility Survey, and all censuses
aforementioned; (c) siblings deaths from the 1989, 1993, 1998 2003, and
2008/09 Kenya DHS; and (d) intercensal survivorship from successive census
age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for the period of 1969-2009.
The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality
estimates.
Kyrgyzstan Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013 Death registration data vr 1981-2013
adjusted for underreporting of infant and child mortality.
Cambodia Based on life tables derived from age and sex-specific mortality rates from: Survey, census data and wpp -
(a) recent household deaths data from the 2004 Inter-Censal Population CD West Model life
Survey and 2008 census; (b) siblings deaths from the 2000, 2005 and 2010
tables
DHS. Also, 1950-1955 life tables derived from estimates of child mortality
were used, by assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the
West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables, as well as recent
household deaths data from the 1959 rural survey, and the 1962-1998
population reconstructions.
Kiribati Based on: (a) estimates in the 2005 and 2010 censuses; (b) estimates from CD West model life wpp 1991-2001
deaths by age and sex from 1995 to 2001; (c) child mortality estimates by tables
assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of
the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables; and (d) estimates from the Secretariat
of the Pacific Community were also considered.
Republic of Based on official estimates of life expectancy through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2013
Korea
Kuwait Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data wpp 1980-1989, 1991-
enumerated census population by age and sex from 1964 to 2010, adjusted 2013
For 1950-1965, life tables were derived from estimates of infant and child
South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and
converges over time toward the estimated 1965-1970 life table.
Lao People's Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp 1995
Democratic age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny tables
Model Life Tables.
Republic
Lebanon Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp -
Model Life Tables. For the period 2010-2015, life expectancy at birth was
adjusted to account for different mortality patterns of large Syrian refugee
population.
Liberia Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15) derived from mortality
(a) recent household deaths data from the 1969-1970 and 1970-1971
Population Growth Surveys ; (b) parental orphanhood from the 2007 DHS ;
(c) siblings deaths from the 2007 DHS ; (d) implied relationship between
child mortality and adult mortality based on the West model of the Coale-
Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and assumed to converge over
time toward the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables by
the 1990s. Data from West African rural demographic surveillance sites and
urban vital registration were also considered.
Libya Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp -
age pattern of mortality conforms the East model of the Coale-Demeny tables
Model Life Tables and converges over time toward the West model of the
Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables from 1950 to 2010.

Saint Lucia Based on: (a) official estimates of life expectancy available through 2005; Death registration data vr 1980-2006, 2008-
(b) registered deaths by age and sex through 2005 and underlying 2012
population by age and sex; and (c) estimates from the 1991 and 2001
censuses.
Sri Lanka Based on: life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data wpp 1980-2007
population by age and sex from 1950 to 2010, adjusted for infant and child
mortality, and for adult death underregistration for males before 1980 by
using tabulations of paternal orphanhood (before marriage) by age of
respondent from the 1987 Sri Lanka DHS.
Lesotho Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life High HIV -
Lithuania Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2011. The Death registration data vr 1980-2013
Luxembourg Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012. The Death registration data vr 1980-2013
age pattern of mortality is based on official life tables through 2012.
Latvia Based on official life tables available through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Morocco Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp 1991-1998, 2008-
age pattern of mortality initially conforms to the mortality patterns tables 2012
resulting from the blending from the East model of the Coale-Demeny
Model Life Tables to the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life
Tables from 1950 to 2015.
Republic of Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012 Death registration data vr 1981-2013
Moldova adjusted for underreporting of infant and child mortality. The age pattern of
mortality is derived from a life table based on data for 2012.
Madagascar Based on: (a) estimates from the 1966 Demographic Survey and the 1973 CD North relational wpp -
and 1993 censuses; (b) estimates derived from registered age-sex-specific model for non-HIV
deaths and underlying age-sex-specific population; (c) estimates derived
mortality
from implied relationships between child mortality and adult mortality from
the 1992, 1997, 2003/04 and 2008/09 DHS based on the North model of the
Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables; and (d) 1966 estimates from OECD were
also considered.
Maldives Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data vr 1984-2011
enumerated census population by age and sex from 1975 to 2012, adjusted
for infant and child mortality and for adult death underregistration for males
in 1980-1985 using the growth-balance and synthetic-extinct generation
methods. For 1950-1975, life tables were derived from
estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the age pattern of
mortality conforms to the South-Asian model of the United Nations Model
Life Tables in 1950-1955 and converges over time toward the estimated
1975-1980 life table.
Mexico Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2013 and underlying Death registration data vr 1980-2013
population by age and sex, (b) estimates from the 1992, 2006 and 2009
Encuesta Nacional de la Dinámica Demográfica (ENADID), (c) estimates from
the1978 and 1979 ENPUMA, and the 1976 WFS, (d) estimates from the
1970, 1990, 2000 and 2010 censuses. The number of deaths was adjusted
using the growth-balance method.
The former Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012. The Death registration data vr 1982-2010
Yugoslav age pattern of mortality is based on an official life table for 2010-2012.
Republic of
Macedonia

Mali Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV 1987
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15) derived from
mortality
(a) recent household deaths data (unadjusted and adjusted for
underregistration using the growth-balance and synthetic-extinct
generation methods) from the 1957-1958 Demographic Survey (Central
Delta) and 1960-61 Demographic Survey, the 1976, 1987, 1998 and 2009
censuses; (b) parental orphanhood from the 1995-1996, 2001 and 2006
DHS ; (c) siblings deaths from the 1995-1996, 2001, 2006 DHS and 2012-
2013 DHS; (d) intercensal survivorship from successive census age
distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for periods 1976-1987, 1987-
1998, and 1998-2009 ; (e) implied relationship between child mortality and
adult mortality based on the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life
Tables in 1950-1955, and assumed to converge over time toward the South
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables by the 1980s.
Malta Based on official life tables through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2014
Myanmar Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp -
Model Life Tables. Official estimates of life expectancy at birth by sex from
the 1991 Myanmar Population Change and Fertility Survey and the recent
household deaths data from the 2014 census were also considered.
Montenegro Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2010. The Death registration data vr 1985-2010
age pattern of mortality is based on life tables for 1990, 2000 and 2006.
Mongolia Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013 Death registration data vr 1991-2010
adjusted for underreporting of infant and child mortality.
Mozambique Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV -
Mauritania Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational wpp 1988
infant and child mortality, and estimates of adult mortality (45q15). Adult mortality
mortality estimates were derived from: (a) parental orphanhood from the
2007 MICS3, 2000/01 DHS, 1964/65 Demographic Survey and 1981/82
Fertility Survey of Mauritania (WFS), (b) siblings deaths from the 2000/01
DHS, (c) household deaths data from the 1957 Fouta Toro survey, 1977 and
1988 censuses, and (d) intercensal survivorship from successive census age
distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for periods 1965-1977, 1977-
1988 and 1988-2000.
Mauritius Based on official life tables through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2014
Malawi Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD South model life High HIV 1987, 1998
age pattern of mortality conforms to the South model of the Coale-Demeny tables for non-HIV
Model Life Tables. Estimates from the 1987, 1998 and 2008 censuses and
mortality
official estimates from the National Statistical Office of Malawi were also
considered. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the
mortality estimates.
Malaysia Based on: (a) official estimates of life expectancy available through 2008, Death registration data wpp 1990-2009
and (b) 2011 and 2012 official estimates of deaths by age and sex and the
underlying population by age and sex.
Namibia Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life High HIV -
Model Life Tables. Official estimates from Statistics Namibia were also
mortality
considered. The demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the
mortality estimates.

Niger Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational wpp -
mortality
mortality estimates were derived from (a) recent household deaths data
(unadjusted and adjusted for underregistration using the growth-balance
and synthetic-extinct generation methods) from the 1959/60 Demographic
Survey, 1977, 1988 and 2001 censuses; (b) parental orphanhood from the
1988 and 2001 censuses, 1992 and 1998 DHS, 2006 DHS-MISC3; (c) siblings
deaths from the 1992 DHS, 2006 DHS-MICS3 and 2012 DHS-MICS4; (d)
intercensal survivorship from successive census age distributions (smoothed
and unsmoothed) for periods 1977-1988, and 1988-2001; (e) implied
relationship between child mortality and adult mortality based on the North
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955, and assumed
to converge over time toward the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model
Life Tables by the 1990s. Data from West African rural demographic
surveillance sites and urban vital registration were also considered.
Nigeria Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15). Adult mortality
mortality estimates were derived from: (a) recent household deaths data
from the 1965-1966 Nigerian rural demographic inquiry, the 2008 and 2013
DHS, and the 2010/11 GHS; (b) parental orphanhood from the 1986, 1999,
2003, 2008 and 2013 DHS, the 2007 MICS3 and 2010/11 GHS; (c) siblings
deaths from the 2008 DHS; (d) implied relationship between child mortality
and adult mortality based on the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model
Life Tables. Data from West African rural demographic surveillance sites
including for Malumfashi in 1962-1966 and 1974-1977 and urban vital
registration were also considered.
Nicaragua Based on: (a) registered births and infant and child deaths from 1968 Death registration data vr 1987-1994, 1996-
through 2011; (b) estimates from the 1998, 2001, 2006/07, and the 2013
2011/12 (preliminary) ENDESA (DHS); (c) estimates from the 1992/93 Family
Health Survey, the 1993 and 2001 National Household Survey on Living
Standards Measurement (LSMS); the 1985/86 National Socio-Demographic
Survey, the 1978 National Retrospective Demographic Survey; and (d)
estimates from the 1953, 1963, 1971, 1995 and 2005 censuses. The number
of deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance method.
Netherlands Based on official estimates of life expectancy derived from registered Death registration data vr 1980-2013
deaths through 2013. The age pattern of mortality is based on official life
tables for 1950 to 2013.
Norway Based on official life tables available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2013
Nepal Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp 1981, 1991
Model Life Tables.
New Zealand Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2009. The Death registration data vr 1980-2011
Oman Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths for Death registration data wpp 2009-2010
2009-2011 and 2010 enumerated census population by age and sex,
adjusted for infant and child mortality. For 1950-2007, life tables were
age pattern of mortality conforms to the South model of the Coale-Demeny
Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and converges over time toward the
estimated 2009-2011 life table.
Pakistan Based on life tables derived from age and sex-specific mortality rates from: Survey, census and wpp 1984-1993
(a) the 1962-1965 Population Growth Estimation Experiment, 1968-1971 sample death
Population Growth Survey I, 1976-1979 Population Growth Survey II; (b) the registration data
1984-2007 annual Pakistan Demographic Surveys adjusted for infant and
child mortality, and for adult death underregistration for males in 1950-
1970 using the growth-balance and synthetic-extinct generation methods,
as well as cross-validation with other countries experiencing similar
mortality levels; and (c) estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming
that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the South-Asian model of the
United Nations Model Life Tables. Estimates are consistent with those
based on parental survival and widowhood data from the 1984 PDS.
Mortality rates for older ages were adjusted.

Panama Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex and underlying population Death registration data vr 1980-2013
by age and sex from 1952 through 2013; (b) estimates from the 1950, 1970,
1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 censuses; and (c) official life tables for 1960,
1970, 1979, 1989 and 1999. The number of deaths was adjusted using the
growth-balance method.
Peru Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2012 and the Survey, census and vr 1980-1992, 1994-
underlying population by age and sex; (b) official estimates in 1961, 1965, death registration data 2013
1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005; (c) estimates of infant and child
mortality from 2004-2014 continuous Encuestas Demográficas y de Salud
Familiar (ENDES/DHS), and the 1986, 1991/92, 1996 and 2000 ENDES; (d)
estimates of infant and child mortality from the 1977/78 World Fertility
Survey, the 1974/76 National Demographic Survey; and (e) estimates from
the 1961, 1972, 1981, 1993, and 2007 censuses. The number of deaths was
Philippines Based on: (a) child mortality estimates from the 1998, 2003, 2006 and Death registration data vr 1980-2005, 2007-
2013 DHS, and 2006 Family Planning Survey, (b) estimates od infant and 2009
child mortality, (c) official estimates from a life table of 2006, and (d) the
West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables and the Lee-Carter
method.
Papua New Based on: (a) infant and child mortality estimates, (b) parental survivorship UN Far Eastern relational wpp 1987-1998
Guinea (orphanhood) data by age from the 2000 census, (c) child mortality data model for non-HIV
from the 1996 and 2006 PNG DHS, by assuming that the age pattern of mortality
mortality conforms to the Far Eastern model of the United Nations Model
Life Tables.
Poland Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013. The Death registration data vr 1980-2013
age pattern of mortality is based on official life tables through 2013.
Puerto Rico Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2014 and underlying Death registration data vr 1980-2013
population by age and sex, and (b) official estimates of life expectancy
available through 2010.
Democratic Based on the number of deaths in household during the 12-month period Census data wpp 1993
People's preceding the 1993 and 2008 censuses classified by age and sex.
Republic of
Korea
Portugal Based on: (a) official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012; Death registration data vr 1980-2013
(b) registered deaths by age and sex through 2011 and underlying
population by age and sex; and (c) estimates from the Human Mortality
Database and Eurostat were also considered.
Paraguay Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2006 and underlying Survey, census and wpp 1980-1987, 1990,
population by age and sex; (b) estimates from the 2004 and 2008 ENDSSR death registration data 1992, 1994-2013
and the1995/96 ENDSR; (c) estimates from the 2003 WHS, the 1998
National Maternal and Child Health Survey, the 1990 DHS, the 1987 RHS,
the 1979 WFS, and the 1977 National Demographic Survey; and (d)
estimates from the 1950, 1962, 1972, 1992, and 2002 censuses, and
preliminary results from the 2012 census. The number of deaths was
Occupied Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp 2011
Palestinian age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny tables
Territory Model Life Tables.
Qatar Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data wpp 1981-1983, 1985-
enumerated census population by age and sex from 1981 to 2011, adjusted 2012
For 1950-1980, life tables were derived from estimates of infant and child
South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and
converges over time toward the estimated 1980-1985 life table.
Romania Based on official life tables through 2012. Death registration data vr 1980-2012
Russian Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012. The Death registration data vr 1980-2011
Federation age pattern of mortality is based on life tables through 2012 from the
Human Mortality Database. Both estimates incorporate an adjustment to
infant mortality.

Rwanda Based on the estimated level of infant mortality and taking into account the CD North model life High HIV -
unusual numbers of deaths caused by the 1993-1994 civil war. The tables for non-HIV
demographic impact of AIDS has been factored into the mortality estimates.
mortality
Saudi Arabia Based on official estimates of life expectancy at birth for 2010-2013. For Death registration data wpp 2009, 2012
1995-2010, based on life-tables, calculated from adjusted deaths in the past
12 months by age and sex, and the population by age and sex from the
1999 Demographic Survey, 2004 census and 2007 Demographic Survey
adjusted for infant and child mortality, and old-age mortality. For 1950-
1995, life tables were derived from estimates of infant and child mortality
by assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the South model
of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and converges over
time toward the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables and
the estimated 1999-2007 life tables. Life tables based on annual deaths
from the 2000 Demographic Survey, and on 2005 and 2009 registered
deaths were also considered.
Sudan Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life wpp -
Model Life Tables.
Senegal Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational wpp -
(unadjusted and adjusted for underregistration using the growth-balance
and synthetic-extinct generation methods) from the 1978/79 Multiround
Survey, 1988,2002 and 2013 censuses; (b) parental orphanhood from these
sources and the 1986, 1992/93, 2005 DHS and 2010/11 DHS-MICS, 1988
census, and 2000 MICS; (c) siblings deaths from the 1992/93, and 2005 DHS
and 2010/11 DHS-MICS; (d) intercensal survivorship from successive census
age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for periods 1976-1988 and
1988-2002; (e) implied relationship between child mortality and adult
mortality based on the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables
in 1950-1955, assumed to converge over time toward the South model of
the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables by the 1990s; and (f) central deaths
rate by age from the 2013 census.
Singapore Based on: (a) official estimates of life tables through 2010, and (b) 2011- Death registration data wpp 1980-2014
2013 official estimates of deaths and population by age and sex.
Solomon Islands Based on: (a) data on children ever born and surviving from the 1986 and CD West relational wpp -
1999 censuses; (b) official estimates based on census analysis and WHO- model for non-HIV
GBD estimates for 2006; and (c) 1980-1984 life table based on indirect
mortality
methods assuming that the pattern of mortality conforms to the West
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables..
Sierra Leone Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality estimates were derived from: (a) recent household deaths data
from the 1992 Demographic and social monitoring survey and the 2004
census; (b) parental orphanhood from the 1973 pilot census. 1974, 1985
and 2004 censuses, 2000 MICS2, 2005 MICS3, 2007 CWIQ and 2008 DHS
surveys; (c) female sibling deaths from the 2005 MICS3, and sibling deaths
from the 2008 and 2013 DHS; (d) intercensal survivorship from successive
census age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for periods 1963-
1974, 1974-1985, 1985-2004; (e) implied relationship between child
mortality and adult mortality based on the South model of the Coale-
Demeny Model Life Tables for males, and the North model for females for
the 1950-1970 period. Data from West African rural demographic
surveillance sites (including from the 1973/75 Ad-hoc survey in Greater
Freetown, the Western area and Makeni in the Northern Province) and
urban vital registration were also considered.
El Salvador Based on: (a) registered deaths from 1975 through 2008, and underlying Death registration data vr 1980-2012
population by age and sex; (b) estimates from the 1950, 1963, 1971, 1992
and 2007 censuses; (c) estimates from the 1973 to 2008 Encuesta Nacional
de Salud Familiar (FESAL), the 1992 EHS, and the 1985 DHS. The number of
Somalia Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life wpp -
Model Life Tables. Estimates from GBD-WHO were also considered.
Additional deaths due to the famine of 1992 and the war have been

factored into the mortality estimates.
Serbia Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2011. The age Death registration data vr 1985-2013
pattern of mortality is based on official life tables for 1997, and for 2005 to
2012.
South Sudan Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life Other HIV -
Model Life Tables.
Sao Tome and Based on: (a) official estimates and life table derived from the 2001 census; CD North relational wpp 1984-1985, 1987
Principe and (b) death rates calculated from registered deaths by age and sex model for non-HIV
through 1979 and underlying population by age and sex. Estimates
mortality
from WHO-GBD and estimates derived from child and adult mortality using
North Model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Table were also considered.
Suriname Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2013 and underlying Death registration data vr 1980-2012
population by age and sex, and (b) official estimates for 1963, 1980, 2004
and 2006.
Slovakia Based on official life tables through 2013. Death registration data vr 1982-2014
Slovenia Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2012. The Death registration data vr 1982-2010
age pattern of mortality is based on blended life tables (from the East
model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables assumed to convert over
time toward the empirical data in 1980) between 1950 and 1980, and
official life tables from 1980 to 2012.
Sweden Based on official life tables available through 2013. Death registration data vr 1980-2014
Swaziland Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life High HIV -
mortality
Seychelles Based on: (a) official estimates available through 2014, and (b) registered Death registration data wpp 1980-2014
deaths by age and sex through 2014 and underlying population by age and
sex.
Syrian Arab For 2005-2010, based on a life-table calculated from 2005-2007 registered Death registration data wpp 1983-1984, 1998,
Republic deaths by age and sex, and post-censal population estimates by age and sex 2000-2001, 2004,
derived from the 2004 census and 2010 official estimates adjusted for
2008-2010
infant and child mortality, and old-age mortality. For 1950-2005, due to the
lack of adult mortality information and life tables for this period, life tables
were derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that
the age pattern of mortality conforms for males to the South model of the
Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-1955 and converges over time
toward the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables and the
estimated 2005-2007 life table. For females a similar approach was used
assuming that the age pattern of mortality conformed since 1950 to the
West model. For each sex, the underlying mortality pattern and implied
adult mortality, are consistent with the life table from the 1976-1979 Syrian
Follow-up Demographic Survey. For the 2010-2015 period, excess mortality
due to the conflict was taken into account.
Chad Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life Other HIV -
Model Life Tables.
Togo Estimated using the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD South relational Other HIV -
mortality, and (3) adjusted estimates of adult mortality (45q15), Adult mortality
from the 1960 survey, 1970 and 1981 censuses; (b) parental orphanhood
from the 1998 DHS, 2000 MICS2 and 2006 MICS3; (c) siblings deaths from
the 1998 DHS; (d) implied relationship between child mortality and adult
mortality based on the North model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables
in 1950-1955 and assumed to converge over time toward the South model of
the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables by the 1990s.
Thailand Based on life tables derived from official estimates of registered deaths and Death registration data Other HIV 1980-2009
enumerated census population by age and sex from 1948 to 2011, adjusted

for infant and child mortality and for underregistration of adult deaths.
Tajikistan Based on registered deaths and population by age and sex through 2008, Death registration data vr 1981-1982, 1985-
adjusted for underregistration of deaths. 2005
Turkmenistan Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2006, Death registration data vr 1981-1982, 1985-
adjusted for underregistration of deaths. 2013
Timor-Leste Based on child mortality and adult mortality estimates from the 2009/10 CD West model life wpp -
Timor-Leste DHS. Life tables are estimated using the Flexible two- tables
dimensional model life table and Lee-Carter method. For 1950-2005,
age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny
Model Life Tables. Official estimates of life expectancy at birth for the year
2002 were also taken into account.
Tonga Based on: (a) the registered deaths by age and sex from 1957 to 1966 and UN Far Eastern model wpp 1992-2003
from 1982 to 2006 and underlying population by age and sex; and (b) life tables
estimates from the 1996 and 2006 censuses by assuming that the age
pattern of mortality conforms to the Far Eastern model of the United
Nations Model Life Tables. Estimates from the Secretariat of the Pacific
Community were also considered.
Trinidad and Based on: (a) registered death by age and sex through 2005 and underlying Death registration data vr 1980-2009
Tobago population by age and sex, and (b) official estimates through 2000.
Tunisia Based on official estimates of life expectancy from 1995 to 2012 from INS Death registration data wpp 1980, 1987-1989,
Tunisia. The age pattern of mortality is based on national life table from 1991-2000, 2009,
various years adjusted for under-five mortality.
2013
Turkey Based on: (a) adjusted estimates from registered deaths by age and sex from Death registration data wpp 1999-2002, 2004-
1952 to 2006 and for 2009 with underlying population by age and sex; (b) 2013
official estimates for 1989, 2006, 2008 and 2011; and (c) estimates from
1990 to 2010 from the Turkish Institute of Statistics.
China: Province Based on official estimates of life expectancy derived from registered Death registration data wpp -
of Taiwan only deaths through 2009.
United Republic Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV 1988
of Tanzania age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of the Coale-Demeny tables for non-HIV
mortality
the mortality estimates. Estimates of adult mortality were also considered.
These were based on: (a) parental orphanhood from the 1978, 1988 and
2002 censuses, and the 1992, 1996, 1999, 2004/05 and 2010 DHS; (b)
siblings deaths from the above DHS; (c) intercensal survivorship from
successive census age distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for the
period of 1988-2012.
Uganda Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality, and adult mortality by CD North relational High HIV -
assuming that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of model for non-HIV
the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables. Adult mortality (45q15) estimates were
mortality
based on: (a) parental orphanhood from the 1969, 1991, and 2002 censuses,
and the 1988/89, 1995, 2001, and 2006 DHS; (b) siblings deaths from the
above DHS; (c) intercensal survivorship from successive census age
distributions (smoothed and unsmoothed) for the period of 1991-2002. The
Ukraine Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2013. The Death registration data vr 1981-2012
Human Mortality Database. Both estimates incorporate an adjustment to
infant mortality.
Uruguay Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex through 2013 and Death registration data vr 1980-2010, 2012-
underlying population by age and sex; (b) official estimates from 1964 to 2013
2008; and (c) estimates from the 1963, 1975, 1985, 1996, 2004, and 2011
censuses. The number of deaths was adjusted using the growth-balance
method.
United States of Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2011. The Death registration data vr 1980-2013
America age pattern of mortality is based on life tables through 2011 from the

Uzbekistan Based on official estimates of life expectancy available through 2008, Death registration data vr 1981-2005
adjusted for underregistration of deaths.
Saint Vincent Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD West model life wpp 1980-2013
and the age pattern of mortality conforms to the West model of the Coale-Demeny tables
Model Life Tables. Registered deaths by age and sex through 2009 with
Grenadines
underlying population by age and sex were considered.
Venezuela Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex from 1950 through 2009 and Death registration data vr 1980-2012
(Bolivarian underlying population by age and sex; (b) estimates from the 1950, 1961,
1971, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2011 censuses; (c) official estimates for 1974,
Republic of)
1975, 1985, 2000-2002 and 2007; and (d) estimates from the 1977 World
Fertility Survey and the 1998 Population and Family Survey. The number of
Viet Nam Based on life tables derived from age and sex-specific mortality rates from: Death registration data wpp -
(a) recent household deaths data from the 1979, 1989, 1990 and 2009
censuses (unadjusted and adjusted for underregistration using the growth-
balance and synthetic-extinct generation methods), and from the 2007
Population Change and Family Planning survey; (b) annual deaths for 2009
from the Viet Nam national sample mortality surveillance programme
adjusted for infant and child mortality, and for adult death completeness
according to capture-recapture survey; (c) direct and indirect estimates
based on parental orphanhood and siblings survival from the 1991 Vietnam
Life History Survey and 1995/98 Vietnam Longitudinal Survey; and (d) 1979-
1989 intercensal survival estimates adjusted for outflows of refugees and
differential completeness of census enumeration. For 1950-1970 life tables
were derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that
the age pattern of mortality conforms to the average experienced of the
North and West models of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables in 1950-
1955 and converged over time toward 1980s life tables. For 1965-1975,
excess mortality due to the war was factored in the overall mortality levels
based on direct and indirect adult mortality estimates derived from parental
orphanhood and siblings survival from the 1991 VHS and 1995/98
VLS, and from the PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset.
Vanuatu Based on: (a) infant and child mortality estimates; (b) parental survivorship UN Far Eastern model wpp -
(orphanhood) data by age of respondent from the 1999 census; and (c) the life tables
assumption that the age pattern of mortality conforms to the Far Eastern
model of the United Nations Model Life Tables.
Samoa Based on: (a) registered deaths by age and sex from 1980 through with the UN Far Eastern model wpp 1980, 1992-1993
underlying population by age and sex, and (b) estimates from the 1999 and life tables
2009 Samoa DHS. The age pattern of mortality was assumed to conform to
the Far Eastern model of the United Nations Model Life Tables. Estimates
from the 2001, 2006 and 2011 censuses were also considered.
Yemen Estimated using the West model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables CD West relational wpp -
mortality, and (3) estimates of adult mortality (45q15). Adult mortality mortality
estimates were implied by the relationship between child mortality and
adult mortality based on the South model of the Coale-Demeny Model Life
Tables and assumed to converge over time toward the West model of the
Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables by the 1980s. Indirect estimates of adult
mortality based on widowhood data from the1979 WFS, as well as parental
orphanhood from this survey and the 2004 census were also considered.
Official estimates of life expectancy at birth from the Central Statistical
Organization of Yemen were also taken into account.
South Africa Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the Death registration data, High HIV 1980-1982, 1984-
age pattern of mortality conforms to the Far Eastern model of the United UN Far Eastern model 2013
Nations Model Life Tables. Official estimates from Statistics South Africa
life tables for non-HIV
and the Actuarial Society of South Africa were also considered. The
mortality
Zambia Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV -
mortality
Zimbabwe Derived from estimates of infant and child mortality by assuming that the CD North model life High HIV 1982, 1986, 1990-
age pattern of mortality conforms to the North model of the Coale-Demeny tables for non-HIV 1996, 1998, 2002
mortality

Annex B: Data sources and methods for mortality shocks
Natural disasters
Estimated deaths for major natural disasters were obtained from the EM-DAT/CRED International
Disaster Database (1). EM-DAT includes epidemics and some man-made disasters that are classified as
transport injuries etc, these are excluded from mortality estimates for natural disasters. Since 2000,
three major natural disasters that were associated with more than 100 000 deaths have dominated the
picture: the Asia tsunami in 2004; the Myanmar cyclone in 2008; and the Haiti earthquake in 2010
(Figure 1). The number of disasters has been declining in the last decade and the number of people
affected reached its lowest levels since 2000 in 2012 and 2013. Out of over one million disaster-related
deaths during 2000–2014, 61% occurred in Asia where 60% of the global population live, about one in
five people reported killed lived in the Americas. Africa (6%) and Oceania (less than 1% of deaths) had
much smaller proportions).
Figure 1 Number of people reported killed in natural and technological disasters, 2000–2014
Age-sex distributions were based on a number of studies of earthquake deaths (2, 3) and tsunami
deaths (4, 5).
Conflict deaths
Country-specific estimates of war and conflict deaths have been updated for the entire period 1990-
2015 using revised methods together with information on conflict intensity, time trends, and mortality

obtained from a number of war mortality databases (described below). These estimates relate to deaths
for which the underlying cause (following ICD conventions) was an injury due to war, civil insurrection or
organized conflict, whether or not that injury occurred during the time of war or after cessation of
hostilities. The estimates include injury deaths resulting from all organized conflicts, including organized
terrorist groups, whether or not a national government was involved. They do not include deaths from
other causes (such as starvation, infectious disease epidemics, lack of medical intervention for chronic
diseases), which may be counterfactually attributable to war or civil conflict.
Methods used previously by WHO for estimation of direct conflict deaths were developed in the early
2000s and applied adjustment factors for under-reporting to estimates of battlefield or conflict deaths
from a variety of published and unpublished conflict mortality databases (5-9). Murray et al. (10)
summarized the issues with estimation of war deaths, and emphasized the very considerable
uncertainty in the original Global Burden of Disease estimates (11) and subsequent WHO estimates for
conflict deaths. WHO published estimates for the years 2000 through 2008 used adjustment factors
based on conflict intensity developed from an analysis of likely levels of under-reporting (12-15). These
adjustment factors ranged from around 3 to higher than 4 in sub-Saharan Africa.
Obermeyer, Murray and Gakidou (16) more recently analyzed data on deaths due to conflict from post-
conflict sibling histories collected in the 2002 to 2003 WHO World Health Survey (WHS) program. They
used data from 13 countries with more than 5 reported sibling deaths from war injuries in at least one
10-year period to estimate total war deaths for these countries for the period 1955-2002. The authors
then compared their estimates of war deaths to the number of war deaths estimated in the UCDP Battle
Deaths database (17) to derive an average adjustment factor of 2.96. Garfield and Blore (18) noted that
a very small number of war deaths for Georgia resulted in an outlier ratio of 12.0 which heavily
influenced the overall ratio of 2.96. They reanalyzed the WHS-derived war deaths dataset excluding
Georgia, to obtain an overall revised adjustment factor of 2.21.
The revised WHO country-specific estimates of war and conflict deaths for the period 1990-2015 make
use of estimates of direct deaths from three datasets: Battle-Related Deaths (version 5), Non-State
Conflict Dataset (UCDP version 2.4), and One-sided Violence Dataset (UCDP version 1.4) from 1989 to
2011 (19-21). Using these three datasets, instead of focusing solely on battle-related deaths, reduces
the likelihood that overall direct conflict deaths are underestimated. However, it is likely that a degree
of undercounting still occurs in the count-based datasets, and a revised adjustment factor of 1.91 has
been applied to the annual battle death main estimates for state-state conflicts. No adjustments were
applied to estimated conflict deaths (main estimates) for non-state conflict deaths, and one-sided
violence.
The adjustment factor 1.91 is the average of the factor of 2.21 obtained by Garfield and Blore (18) and
of a factor of 1.66 derived from comparing total deaths in the UCDP battle deaths dataset with those
estimated by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) for the years 1989-2008 (22). As shown in the
graph below, the PRIO estimates are systematically higher than those of the UCDP.

The UCDP dataset is compiled primarily by counting the annual total of combat-related fatalities
(national and global) from reports of fatalities in individual violent incidents (battles, clashes, etc.) in
each state-based conflict. UCDP uses a variety of sources, including news reports, reports from human
rights organizations and nongovernmental organizations, etc. Since it is highly unlikely that all reports of
battle deaths will be recorded—particularly in conflicts where outside observers are banned from war
zones—this methodology will almost certainly underestimate the actual number of battle deaths. By
contrast, the PRIO dataset relies heavily on summary estimates—i.e., expert assessments of overall
fatalities. There is no reason to assume that summary estimates will systematically undercount battle
deaths as does UCDP’s incident-based estimation method.
Note that the application of a single adjustment factor for all state-state conflicts may result in deaths
for specific conflicts being over- or under-estimated. For the following countries, the multiplier was
adjusted downwards for low intensity years: Mexico (drug gangs), DR Congo, Columbia, Eritrea/Ethiopia
(1990-2000). For these conflict, estimated deaths from other sources suggest that UCDP figures provide
reasonable estimates without additional adjustment. For several conflicts where more specific sources
of information are available, these have been used to revise estimated deaths:
Iraq (81, 82).
Iraq The conflict death toll in Iraq following the US-led invasion in March 2003 has been the
subject of much discussion with estimates for violent deaths to end June 2006 ranging
from 47,668 (Iraq Body Count) to 601,027 in a 2006 household survey (). The Iraq
Family Health Survey (IFHS), conducted in 2006-2007 by relevant Iraq Government
Ministries in collaboration with WHO, provided new evidence on mortality in Iraq for
the three years post-invasion (24). Latest counts of reported deaths in Iraq by the Iraq
Body Count (25) were compared with conflict deaths for the period 2003-2006
estimated from the Iraq Family Health Survey 2006 (24). This nationally representative

survey of 9,345 households included questions on deaths of adult siblings of
respondents, and deaths in the household. Sibling deaths were used to estimate adult
mortality rates using the Gakidou-King method (26). Calendar year adjustment factors
for under-reporting in the Iraq Body Count data ranged from 3.3 (2003) and 3.4 (2004)
to 2.3 (2006) and 2.2 (2007). An average adjustment factor of 2.17 was applied to Iraq
Body Count data for more recent years to derive a time series of estimated total
conflict deaths in Iraq.
Occupied Palestinian Territories. Estimates of Israeli and Palestinian deaths were derived from statistics
published by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) -
Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) (27) and the The Israeli Center for Human Rights
in the Occupied Territories (28).
Syria For Syria, excess mortality in 2011 and 2012 due to the conflict was taken into account
based on UN estimates of overall conflict deaths by month and age distribution of deaths
(29, 30), as well as estimates by various human rights organizations (31, 32).
US, UK and the coalition of the willing. Military deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq were compiled from
various official sources and summary tables available on websites.
Deaths due to landmines and unexploded ordinance were estimated separately by country (33). Deaths
from terrorist events were separately estimated for many countries without ongoing general conflict
using data from the Global Terrorism Database (90) and Terrorism deaths. Terrorism deaths from this
database were not added to conflict deaths for Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and a number of African
countries to avoid potential double counting.
Legal execution deaths are included in this cause category for GHE2015. Estimated execution deaths
were added for the main countries using capital punishment regularly (China, Iran, Iraq, DPR Korea,
Saudi Arabia, USA and Yemen), from UN Human Rights Reports, with additional information from
Amnesty International reports, Human Rights Watch reports and Wikipedia.
Age-sex distributions for conflict deaths were revised based on available distributions of conflict deaths
by age and sex for specific conflicts (10, 16, 24, 25, 27, 35, 36) and on age-patterns for certain country-
periods with high conflict deaths included in the WPP2015 life tables (37).
The following tables summarizes and compares various time series of conflict deaths estimates.
Table 5.2. Estimated total global injury deaths (thousands) due to conflict: comparison of
various time series and WHO estimates.
Year GBD 1990 WHO IHME-GBD WHO 2013 PRIO IHME-GBD Current
(a) 2000-2008 2012 (j) (i) 2013 (k) revision 2016
2015

1990 502 - 63 138 94 72 131
2000 656 310 (b)
2000 230 (c)
2000 187 (d) 53 122 90 64 128
2004 182 (e) 95 31 95
2005 238 (f) 26 69 19 42 77
2008 182 (g) 84 35 85
2010 834 18 57 29 48 64
2013 82 31 157
2014 101 194
(a) Estimates and projections by Murray and Lopez (11)
(b) World Health Report 2001 (87) and World report on violence and health (38).
(c) World Health Report 2002 (12)
(d) Revision for Disease Control Priorities Study (13)
(e) Global burden of disease: 2004 update (14)
(f) World Health Statistics 2007 (39)
(g) WHO estimates of causes of death for year 2008 (15)
(h) Sum of main estimates of conflict deaths for state-state, state-nonstate and one-sided conflicts (19-21)
(i) Revised WHO estimates for years 1990-2011 (40).
(j) IHME Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (41).
(k) IHME Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (42).
The revised WHO estimates for total conflict deaths (in the final column) are considerably lower than
the previous WHO estimates for years 2000-2008 which used the earlier higher adjustment factor for
under-reporting, which in turn are lower than the previous estimates and projections in the original
Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (11). The recently estimates for conflict deaths published by IHME
in the GBD 2013 study, shown in the rightmost column, are considerable lower than the revised WHO
estimates. The IHME estimates are also lower than the main estimate from the UCDC databases for the
same year. The IHME methods were based on a regression analysis of available all-cause mortality data
for country-years in which battle deaths were reported in various databases. Lozano et al (41) cite (43)
for more detailed documentation of their methods. The latter publication does not appear to exist.

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23. Burnham G, Lafta R, Doocy S, Roberts L. Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster
sample survey. Lancet 2006; 368 (9545): 1421-28.
24. Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group. Violence-Related Mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006. N Engl J
Med, 2008, NEJMsa0707782.
25. Iraq Body Count. Iraqi deaths from violence 2003–2015. Available at: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
26. Gakidou E, King G. Death by survey: estimating adult mortality without selection bias from sibling survival
data. Demography 2006; 43: 569-585.
27. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) - Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT).
http://www.ochaopt.org
28. B’Tselem – The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories. Statistics on
injuries and deaths suffered by both sides in the conflict. http://www.btselem.org/statistics
29. Price M, Klingner and BallPreliminary Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings in Syria. UN OHCHR
commissioned report, January 2013. Available
athttp://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/SY/PreliminaryStatAnalysisKillingsInSyria.pdf (accessed 17
January 2014).
30. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Statement by the Secretary-General on Fulfilling our Collective
Responsibility on Syria. 12 Mar 2015. http://www.un.org/sg/statements/index.asp?nid=8457
31. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. 7 Feb 2015. http://www.syriahr.com/en/2015/02/about-2-millions-
killed-and-wounded-in-47-months-and-it-is-still-not-enough/
32. Wikipedia. Casualties of the Syrian Civil War.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War (accessed 30 Nov 2015).
33. International Campaign to Ban Landmines. Landmine monitor. Available at http://www.the-monitor.org/
(accessed 30 Aug 2015).
34. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Global Terrorism Database
http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/ (accessed 30 Aug 2015).
35. Hoeffler A. Dealing with the consequences of violent conflicts in Africa. Background Paper for the African
Development Bank, 2008. Available at: http://users.ox.ac.uk/~ball0144/consequences.pdf
36. World Health Organization. European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training. Retrospective
mortality survey among the internally displaced population, Greater Darfur, Sudan, August 2004. Geneva,
World Health Organization, 2004. Available at: http://www.who.int/disasters/repo/14652.pdf
37. UN Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects - the 2015 revision. New York, United Nations.
38. Krug EG, et al. World Report on violence and health. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2002.
39. World Health Organization. World Health Statistics 2007. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2007.
40. World Health Organization 2013. WHO methods and data sources for global causes of death 2000-2011
(Global Health Estimates Technical Paper WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2013.3)
41. Lozano R, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and
2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet, 2012, 380(9859):2095-
128.
42. Naghavi M, Wang H, Lozano R, et al. Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-
specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of
Disease Study 2013. Lancet, 2015, 385(9963): 117-171.
43. Murray C, Lopez AD, Wang H. Mortality estimation for national populations: methods and applications.
Seattle, University of Washington Press, 2012.

Annex C: Estimated completeness of death registration data
Annex Table C: Estimated completeness of death registration data, by country and year, 1985-2015.
Albania Argentina Armenia
1.0 -
0.8 -
1 .0 - =--=-===="---=-- 1.0 - =-:....
0.8 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1H85 2005 2015 198. 1995 2005 2015 1985 19H5 2005 2015
1.0 - --===---- 1 0-
Australia Austria Azerbaijan

1 .0 - - - - - - -
0.8 - 0.8 -
08 -
0.6 - 0.6 -
0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0 0- oo - o o-
I I I I 1 I I I 1 I I I
1oes 1005 2005 2015 1085 1005 2005 2015 1095 1905 2005 2015
1.0 -
- Belarus
-=-- 1.0 -
Belgium
1.0-
Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.8 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.6 - 0.0 - 0.6-
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -

0.0- 0.0 - 0.0 -
I I I I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1965 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Brazil Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria
===::::::;:;;::::::::::::::::=
1.0 - "":> .c::: 1 .0 - -:=--:->,.-...-----.:::::::::::::======== 1.0-
0.8- 0.8 - 08 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Key - IHME - WHO (previous) - WHO (current)

Annex Table C (continued): Estimated completeness of death registration data, by country and year, 1985-2015.
Canada Chile Colombia

1.0 - ---====--- 1.0 - =---=- 1.0 -
0.8 - 0.6 - 0.8 - -----
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Costa Rica Croatia Cuba

1.0 -
0.8 -
0.6 -
- --==- s 1.0 -
0.8 -
0.6 -
.- 1.0 -
0.8 -
0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Czech Republic Denmark Dominican Republic

1.0-- -- - - - 1.0 -
0.6 -
--------=- 0.8 -
0.8 -
0.6 -
0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 04-
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
8-
'<:::::
.........
- :::;::::>
Ecuador Egypt ElSalvador
1.0 - ;:::::---::...-
0.
0.6 -
1.0 -
0.8 -
0.6 -
1.0 -
0.8 -
0.6 -
-
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -

0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -
I I I I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
World Health Organization Key -IHME - WHO (previous) - WHO (current) Page 42
Estonia Finland France

1.0 - 1 .0 - 1.0 -
0.8 - 0.6 - 0.8 -
0.6- 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Georgia Germany Greece

1.0 - 1.0 - 1o -
="":::::. .,...--...,
0.8 - <::::::::?' 0.8 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0- 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Guatemala Guyana Hungary

1 .0 -
1.0 - -::-'"='"
::::;;;;;:::; ;:;= ;;::::: 1.0 - -- - - -
0.8 - 0.8 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 200 2015 198 1995 2005 2015
Iceland Ireland Israel
1.0 - ========::::::::-__
1.0 - ----==:<:!!!!!!!!!:::=- 1.0 - ...,.,
0.8 - 0.6 -
0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015

Italy Japan Kazakhstan

1.0 -
0.8 -
1.0 -
0.8 -
1.0 -
0.6 -
---.......
0.6 - 0.8 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
---
Kyrgyzstan Latva
i Lithuania
1.0 -
10 - 1.0 - ....
0.8 - 0.8 -
0.8 -
0.6 - 0.5 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Lu embourg Maldives Malta

1.0 -
-
- -===:::====:_ 1.0 - - ------=-""-c'======- 1.0 - - -- - --
0.8 - 0.6 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.0 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 200 2015 198 1995 2005 2015
Mauritius Mexico Mongolia

1.0 - ========:- 10 - =="""'-:a.- --
1.0 -
__
--
0.8 - 0.8 -
0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 -
0.5 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Key -IHME - WHO (previous) - WHO (current)

7"7"'"«"'>0::::.. oo:;:<:;::===--
-
1.0 -
Montenegro
- 1.0 - - - -
Netherlands
- 1.0 - -------""===-
New Zealand
0 8-
0.6 - 0.6 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0- 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Nicaragua Norway Panama

1.0 -
1.0 - ----- 1.0 - - -- - -
0.8 - 0.8 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 -
0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Peru Philippines Poland

1 .0 - ---------- 1.0 -
0.8- --------
0.6 -
0.8 -
0.6 - ::?-:-:::::::==:.. - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2- 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 200 2015 198 1995 2005 2015
Portugal Puerto Rico Republic of Korea

1.0- --==--=======- 1.0 - --
;;;;=-='"""==--===- 1.0 -
0.8 - 0.6 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6-
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2-
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015

Republic of Moldova Romania Russian Federation

1.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 -
...............
0.8 - 0.8 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Serbia Slovakia Slovenia

1.0 - -:::- 1.0 - 1.0 -
08 - 0.6 - 0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0- 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
1.0 -
0.8 -
----------=-
Spain
08 -
Suriname
1.0 -
0.8 -
--==------Sweden
0.6 -
0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 -
0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
-
____
1.0 -
1.0 -
.0 - --- - - --
1
Switzerland .._ Tajikislan The fonner Yugoslav Republic of Macedona
0.8 -
0.8 - 0.6 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

1 I I I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015

Turkmenistan Ukraine United Kingdom

1.0 -
0.8 -
==-- 1.0 - -===---- 1.0 -
0.8 -
0.8 -
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
United States of America Uruguay Uzbekistan

1.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 -
0.8 - 0.8 - 0.8 -

---------
0.6 - 0.6 - 0.6 -
0.4 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
0.2 - 0.2 - 0.2 -
0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 -

I I I I
1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015 1985 1995 2005 2015
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

1.0 - ----------
0.6 - -
0.6 -
0.4 -
0.2 -
0.0 -
1 I
1985 1995 2005 2015

Annex D: Estimated completeness of death registration data for most recent year
Country Year Completeness (%) Country Year Completeness (%)
Albania 2009 76.1 Kyrgyzstan 2013 95.8

Argentina 2013 98.7 Latvia 2012 97.5
Armenia 2012 101.1 Lithuania 2013 88.2
Australia 2012 97.7 Luxembourg 2013 91.5
Austria 2014 98.8 Maldives 2011 99.3
Azerbaijan 2011 95.9 Malta 2014 98.9
Bahamas 2012 93.5 Mauritius 2014 97.4
Barbados 2012 75.7 Mexico 2013 100.8
Belarus 2012 97.0 Mongolia 2010 94.5
Belgium 2012 98.5 Montenegro 2010 92.0
Belize 2013 80.2 Netherlands 2013 99.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2011 94.7 New Zealand 2011 97.0
Brazil 2013 100.0 Nicaragua 2013 72.0
Brunei Darussalam 2013 100.0 Norway 2013 96.2
Bulgaria 2012 97.8 Panama 2013 93.2
Canada 2011 96.1 Peru 2013 61.7
Chile 2013 100.0 Philippines 2009 86.0
Colombia 2012 76.2 Poland 2013 100.0
Costa Rica 2013 87.2 Portugal 2013 97.7
Croatia 2013 99.1 Puerto Rico 2013 99.8
Cuba 2013 100.0 Republic of Korea 2013 96.9
Czech Republic 2013 100.0 Republic of Moldova 2013 85.7
Denmark 2012 95.3 Romania 2012 99.1
Dominican Republic 2012 54.8 Russian Federation 2011 95.6
Ecuador 2013 83.0 Saint Lucia 2012 81.3
Egypt 2013 95.4 Serbia 2013 89.7
El Salvador 2012 83.6 Slovakia 2014 96.8
Estonia 2012 97.7 Slovenia 2010 98.7
Finland 2013 97.8 Spain 2013 95.4
France 2012 99.0 Suriname 2012 77.6
Georgia 2014 100.0 Sweden 2014 98.8
Germany 2013 100.0 Switzerland 2012 98.5
Greece 2012 98.4 Tajikistan 2005 82.8
Guatemala 2013 92.0 TFYR Macedonia 2010 101.1
Guyana 2011 93.3 Turkmenistan 2013 76.4
Hungary 2013 97.6 Ukraine 2012 95.3
Iceland 2012 97.8 United Kingdom 2013 98.5
Ireland 2012 98.4 United States of America 2013 97.7
Israel 2014 99.5 Uruguay 2013 101.0
Italy 2012 100.0 Uzbekistan 2005 89.5
Japan 2013 99.9 Venezuela 2012 89.4
(Bolivarian Republic of)
Kazakhstan 2012 95.0

Annex E: Comparison of 45q15 estimatesWPP2015 and GHE2016
Annex Table E: GH£2016 and WPP2015 estimates of 45q15, by country, sex and year, 1985-2015.
Afghanistan Albania
450-
. Male 1-emale
-
Male 1-emale
: =·-. ........•. . ·.
300 •••• ••• 100- ••

:250- ••• . ••
••• 50 -
I I I I I
201!1196!1 1 995
, ._
Nale Female Male Fen1ale
19& 1990
""'
2015 1905 2C05
Algeria Angola
:::
100- -
fOO -
:,,._= ·········.. ·····.....

::!00-
·······--
••. •• ••• 0 .
1085 1005
"'" 2.)151985 ,., ,..
2005 2015
'''" 2005 2015
I I
2COS
Ant1gua and Barbuda Argentina

Male Female Male Femael
200-
:=:
140-
··-·-- .• •.
160 - ·--
20 0- -
0 0 00
120- • •• 100-
100- I
···...
I I I I I I I I I I
1985 1990 2005 20151985 '9:)5 2005 2015 1005 1995 2C05 20151385 1995 2005 2015
World Health Organization

Armenia M
ale Page 49 1-emale
A
140-
u
s
t
r
a
l
i
a
M
a
l
e
1
-
e
m
a
l
e
k
120- ·.• •
100- ••
I I I I I I I I
:=
40 -I
19&5 1990 2005 2015 19&5 " 990 2000 2015 1905 199!1 2C05 201!1 19&5 1995 2005 2015
Austria AzerbaiJan
150- ' 260_-: •

Male Female 00- • Male Female
100 - · 1SO-
• •
50-
1
085
I
1005 2005
---------
1
20151985
I
'0;15 2005
I I
2015
100-
'''"
series - WHO • • ·· WHO. HIV-and shock
1095
+ WPP
2005 4015185
•
1QQS 2005 2015

Annex Table E (continued): GH£2016 and WPP2015 estimates of 45q15, by country, sex and year, 1985-2015.
Bahamas Bahrain
Male Female Ma'e female
2-
2 - ·· ... "12"0--
100-
eo-
eo -
1005 2005 2015 Ui8!i 1005 2005 2015 1t5 2005 201 51065 11105 2005 2J15
Bangladesh Barbados
--
Mako Ma'a Female
: JL
1- ,
1<:;8:> 199) 200:> 201:, IS8t 199:> lOOt 201!1
1>0-
100-
·········· ····· .
.. .
·..
...
2l1:>
an1s Belgium
Female Ma'e Female
::= .
2-
10 0 -
H0 -
120 -
100-
2>l-
100 -
eo-
t<J-
1>l-
1085 1005 2005 20151G85 1005 2005 2016 1 E5 I GQS 2005 20151985 1.. 5 2005 2)15
Bel1 ze Benin
Mako Female Ma'a Female
·····.
250-
·.. ···
2 -
151)-
..·
350 -
300-
,,.,_
.
•
.......... .. ··..._
..../ .
1>l-
1 , lU1t>1 :>
""" 111\/o
'""
Bhutan Bolivia (Piurinational State of )

Male Female Ma'e Female
::=
35<)-
D- •
2J(j - •
2 - .
I I I I I I I I
1085 1905 2006 2015 1G86 1006 2005 2016 1;>t5 1G06 2006 20161006 1.. 6 2005 2J15
series - WHO · · ·· WHO, HIV-and shock • WPP

Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana
=
Male Female Male Ferrale
200-
100 -
• 0. •
== _A
400-
300-
200- •.. .• . •• • . • •• • .• 0.
···········.....
too- I
?(t1'11M5 701!\ 1 1'ifi 199S
:l>O-
250 -
200-
150-
Male
. • • • . .•••
• . •..
Brazil
Female
160
un -
100-
1 20-
-
•
'-!ale
Brunei Darussalam
Ferrale
.
100- M- •
I I I I I I
196 199 2000 199!:i 201:i 196 199:i 200:i 201:iH8G 2:005
Bulgaria Burkina Faso

Male Female '-!ale ferrale
150-
100-
::
2«> - ••• . ·
......····
I I I I I I I I I I
1965 1995 2005 1985 1995 2005 201 5 H85 1995 2005 4015
Burundi Cabo Verde

Mala Female '-!ale Ferrale
. ::
250 -
200- •.•
.. ..
ISO- •,• • •,
250-
·· ··.... ··..
100- ••• • •.
I
10'>5 2005 2C15t08S 10'>5 1!)85
""" 2015
"'" 2005 201 51)85 1005 2005 2015
Cambodia Cameroon
Mal Female '-!ale Ferrale
:=
;5
3
- -
<( >)-
) .•
400-
350- .... .... . ·

250- ••• • -
.• . • • .. ' • •
.· -. lOO- . .• • •••
200-
150- • .. •• • 2:,0-
...
,., lU1 19\1) :ltl lHIS
,,., :.:ot
"""
series -WHO ·· ·· WHO, HIV-and shock • WPP

. ,. , ,
Canada Cenlral African Repul>ic
M Female Male Female
ale ='"='- /.
350-
.... . .....
•• .
\
120- •• .
·.
100 - • •.••• •
:= 1965 zco
I
201:5191!!5 1990
I
2005
I I
201!5
300-
250- 1
199S 2005
• • . ••••• . . • ••••••
199!5 2005 201

""' ""'
Chad Ch1le
Male Female Male female
2<0 -
150- -.
• ..
350- ... 100 - • ..
300-
50- -
I
1985 199S 2005 2015 1985 199S 2005 i!:01S 198S 2005
1995 2COS 201519€5 1995
''"'
China China: Province of Taiwan only

Male Female Male Female
::=
=:· · .
100 -
80-
140-
1:0:0-
1CO-
., -
60-
1
19815 2006 2015 1086 2006
1... 2011519E5 1...
"'"
Color11bia Comoms
Mule Fcmab Mole Fcmolc
250 -
200-
. .
.. ••
·._..·....
150-

..
·
..
100 -
1 .5 1005 200S 201519ES ,. 2005 2015 1085 ,, 2005 zo1stgss 19{15 2005 2015
Congo Costa Rica

Male Femal9 Malo Female
600-
7
140 - "1,., A A '
1:::0- ...- "'f"#'

500-
::= · ··-·-"· ...

200- ..• . •••
lCO-
80-
I I I I
?00
?01!iiNF5
""' ?015
'"'"
series
World Health Organization - WHO ·· · · WHO, HIV-and shock • WPP Page 53
C te d'lvoire Croatia
200-
4 - .2CO- ,
400-
350- . ... .
300-
/ • .··"· ··.
• • • • •• .. .... . ..
... .
• • .•..
...............
150 -
1(0-
so - I
•
1965 zco 201:5191!!5 1990 201!5

""' ""' '""' 2005
Cuba Cyprus
:::=
100 -
1(0 -
so-
60-
w- 40 -
1985 199S 2005 2005 2005

1995 2COS 201519€5 2015 1985
'""' i!:01S 198S 1995
''"'
Czech Repubilc Democratic People's Republic of Korea

200 -
150-
100-
50- I
19815 1...
-----------
1
2011519E5
I
1 .
I
2006
I
2015
Oen1oaatic Republic of the Congo Denmar k

1
HOW--
400-
350- ···········... --- I:iO-
300- ••• . • ...••

100-
250- • •• •• • ••••••• •• 60-
.. ..
00 -
1 .5 1005 200S 201519ES ,. 2005 2015 1985 ,, 2005 zo1stgss 19{15 2005 2015
Djibouti Dominican Republic

350-
300- ..•
...
• ••••
250-
2(0 -
... ·. .
:...•':
.
:.
2:i<l- ·••
•...
• • • .• ·• •
·. 10. "' /
150 -
..
200-
1(0-
1
·..···.
?01!iiNF5
'"'" ?015 1QR!l
'"'" ?00
series - WHO ·· · · WHO, HIV-and shock • WPP

Ecuador Egypt
=-.
25()- , · - -
-
160 -
100- ,.
I I I I
2011911!J 201l!:ftl!l
""'" """ "'"
El Salvador Equalorial Gu1nea

Male
400-
400-
300 -
200-
·-- .•• • • 350-
300-
·.
•• ••.•
. .
• • • •• •
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WHO Methods and Data Sources For Life Tables 1990-2015: Department of Information, Evidence and Research WHO, Geneva

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WHO Methods and Data Sources For Life Tables 1990-2015: Department of Information, Evidence and Research WHO, Geneva

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WHO methods and data sources

for life tables 1990-2015

Department of Information, Evidence and Research

Global Health Estimates Technical Paper WHO/HIS/IER/GHE/2016.2

Estimates and analysis are available at:

2. WPP2015 life tables

World Health Organization Page 1

3 General approach for preparation of annual life tables

Average population = (0.5*P2010 + P2012 + P2010 + P2013 +P2014 + 0.5*P2015)/5

World Health Organization Page 2

A full list of countries in each category is provided in Annex Table A.

World Health Organization Page 3

World Health Organization Page 4

Table 1. Shocks identified as included in WPP 2015 mortality rates

World Health Organization Page 5

3.2 Interpolation of mx for high HIV and “Other HIV” countries

World Health Organization Page 6

Among the most important Spectum/AIM updates were:

World Health Organization Page 7

High HIV countries UNMLT Other HIV countries UNMLT

World Health Organization Page 8

400 reported household deaths in the 2012 census)

World Health Organization Page 9

4.1 Updated assessments of VR completeness

Cyprus: all data refer to government controlled areas

World Health Organization Page 10

Guyana: Prior to 1995, IHME estimates of completeness were used

Suriname: Prior to 1995-2000, previous WHO estimates of completeness were used

World Health Organization Page 11

mx = VR deaths /(WPP population estimate)/(annual age-sex-specific completeness estimate)

World Health Organization Page 12

6 WHO estimates of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy

INSERT SUMMARY OF DATA AVAILABILITY HERE

World Health Organization Page 13

Table 6 Data availability for all-cause mortality

Number of WHO Percentage of global

6.2 Healthy life expectancy

World Health Organization Page 14

World Health Organization Page 15

World Health Organization Page 16

WPP2015 methods for estimation of age-sex-specific mortality GHE2015 WHO MBD VR

World Health Organization Page 17

World Health Organization Page 18

World Health Organization Page 19

World Health Organization Page 20

France Based on official life tables through 2012. vr 1980-2012

World Health Organization Page 21

World Health Organization Page 22

World Health Organization Page 23

World Health Organization Page 24

World Health Organization Page 25

World Health Organization Page 26

World Health Organization Page 27

World Health Organization Page 28

World Health Organization Page 29

World Health Organization Page 30

World Health Organization Page 31

World Health Organization Page 32

World Health Organization Page 34

World Health Organization Page 35

Iraq (81, 82).

World Health Organization Page 36

Average population = (0.5P2010 + P2012 + P2010 + P2013 +P2014 + 0.5P2015)/5