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Presentation: Universal Broadband: Targeting Investments To Deliver Broadband Services To All Americans
Presentation: Universal Broadband: Targeting Investments To Deliver Broadband Services To All Americans
Aspen Institute Communications and Society Program
Knight Commission Anniversary Symposium
The Newseum, Sept. 29, 2010
Watch at www.knightcomm.org
Today’s Agenda
• Vision for Broadband Policy
• Path for Universal Service Program to Serve
that Vision
“to enhance
access and
capacity to use
the new tools of
knowledge and
exchange”
Two Core Tasks
• Democratizing Essential Tools of Productivity
and Citizenship
• Rethinking Processes to Take Advantage of
Those Tools to Improve Our Society
A Quick Look Back At
Technology and Progress
• From First Century
to 1500, population
and GDP increase at
constant rate around
world (Malthusian
Trap)
• Then, something
happened that got
us out of the trap….
The Industrial Revolution
Two Different Ideas for
Advancing Technology
• Idea of Pre‐Industrial • Idea of Pre‐Industrial
Revolution France Revolution England
– Inventing providence of – Inventing the province of
the wealthy all
– Gave inventors the
– State gave inventors legally sanctioned right
pensions and prizes to exploit their ideas in
exchange for making the
invention public (1624)
One Consequence:
English Per Capita GDP Growth 243%
Greater Than France
Another Consequence:
Constant Innovation and Growth
• Adding “the fuel of
interest to the fire of
genius” (Lincoln)
also led to pattern of
invention ever
continuing
• Unlike earlier technology
developments in China,
Islamic Golden Age
And in today’s economy…..
• Everyone is becoming a knowledge worker
• Critical factor for success is the process of knowledge
exchange
• Knowledge exchange is driven by the interplay of
networks, devices and applications as utilized by people
• Democratization of knowledge exchange is foundation
for constant innovation, broad economic growth and
healthy communities
Are we there yet?
• No, but not for lack of
tools…..
“The future is here. It's
just not widely
distributed yet.”
‐ William Gibson
• And second, thinking
is not here
déjà vu all over again
The Factory 1910
Three decades after central electricity, same design and
same processes as with factories powered by water
Why Did It Take So Long?
• Diffusion Lag‐‐‐40 Years to Get to 50%
– Sunk Cost
• Of Existing Factories
– Sunk Thought
• Expertise was in existing technology
• Major productivity gains not be realized until whole
process rethought
• Gains came through specific applications built on new
technology
Right Ideas From History
• We need broadly distributed
tools and incentives
• Rethinking processes is key
to realizing gains
• But there’s a problem
when we get to
broadband…
The Most Prevalent Idea in
Broadband Policy
The Most Prevalent Idea in
Broadband Policy
– The primary metric for judging the vision
of a nation’s broadband policy is the speed
of the wireline network that reaches the
most rural of residents
It’s time…..
…to drive a stake through that idea
Many Bad Seeds
– The primary metric for judging the vision
of a nation’s broadband policy is the speed
of the wireline network that reaches the
most rural of residents
Summary of Bad and Good Ideas
Bad Ideas Good ideas
• Primary Metric • Ecosystem
• Speed/Networks • Use/People
• Wireline • Mobile and Fixed
• Rural • Right sized to all
geographies
• Residents • Right sized to all
market segments
Bad Seed 1
Bad Idea Good Idea
• Focus on primary • Focus on interplay of
metric inputs and outputs
Thought Experiment
Which would we
prefer?
– Great hammers but
no nails or blueprint
– Great nails but no
hammer or blueprint
– Great blueprint but
no hammer or nails
Thought Experiment
Answer:
None. All lead to disaster.
We Need Policies that Drive Each Element
to Continually Improve
Improve case for deployment
and upgrades through policies
such as lowering costs of inputs Leads to
Better, Faster
Leads to more Networks
compelling
Applications
and therefore
greater
adoption and
willingness to
spend
Leads to
More Robust
Devices
Bad Seed 2
Bad Idea Good Idea
• It’s about one input • Speed matters‐‐‐but it’s
—speed about the output; the way
people use speed to do
things
Speed is not the only critical characteristic
Non real‐time Real‐time
Incremental benefit of fixed
speeds to residential areas
beyond current average
unknown
But We Know Better Applications Can Drive Savings in Health Care
Possible savings from Possible savings from
implementation of electronic implementation of remote
health records over 15 years monitoring over 25 years
$700B
in
potential
In Billions of Dollars
net
savings
over
15‐25
years
Hospitals Physician Total Heart Dia‐ Pulmonary Skin Total
practices disease betes disease disease
We Know Better Applications Can Drive Savings and
Improved Education and Job Training
Comparison of results between traditional Comparison of Advanced Placement
and hybrid instruction models (percentage) scores at Florida Virtual School and under
traditional instructional models
Traditional Advanced Placement scores (scale of 1‐5)
Hybrid
100% 99%
84% 85%
50%
41%
Paper
$333M
in
58%
42% savings
over
$0.35 5 years
Electronic
Electronic Paper
Bad Seed 3
Bad Idea Good Idea
• It’s about wired • It’s about both mobile and
fixed
New mobile devices are enabling convergence of
basic fixed and mobile application profiles
Similarity
Example uses Application and device example
to fixed
• Voice • Kindle accessing
Utility • Email ebooks
High
• One‐way browsing • Basic smartphones
accessing news
• Two‐way browsing • Smartphone
Emerging accessing library to
• Content streaming Medium
multimedia and download upload/ download
photos
• P2P or HD • Minimum today,
streaming but emerging (e.g.
Advanced Minimal
• 2‐way HD video Videoconferencing)
teleconferencing
Smartphones sales to overtake standard phones
by 2011
Mobile to exceed wired access in under 5 years
Most Important:
Wireless as Horizon Industry
• Economy suffering
from demand shock
• Wireless generating
new demand in and
of itself
• Wireless generating
new demand in
every other industry
• And we ain’t seen
nothing yet….
Bad Idea 4
Bad Idea Good Idea
• It’s about rural • It’s about right sized to all
areas
Justifications for Rural Focused Policy logically
lead to greater emphasis on non‐rural needs
Economic Social Justice
• Argument leads to higher • Argument leads to higher
priority to higher speeds to priority to adoption (90
strategic drivers which are million) than unserved (15‐
generally non‐rural 25 million)
Particularly given how the cost of digital exclusion is large and growing
Market data Implication for non‐adopters
• In 2005, 77% of Fortune 500 Companies did not give • Getting a job is more difficult without
Employment jobseekers the option of responding offline to access to online postings and the
positions posted on the corporate careers website1 ability to submit applications online
• ~65% of teens go online at home to complete • Students without broadband
Internet‐related homework and 71% of teens say the connections lack access to the same
Education Internet was their primary source for information for level of information as their connected
completing a recent school project 2 peers
• 40% of Americans say they get most of their news • Non‐adopters have increasingly
News from the Internet (more than those who cite limited resources to gather current
newspapers); the Wall Street Journal is three inches events information
narrower today than it was in 20043
• 61% of American adults have searched for health • Finding medical information without
Healthcare information online; of those 60% say the online access to online health sources limits
information affected a decision about treating an patients’ knowledge, choices and care
illness or condition4
Consumer
• Study of car buyers showed that those who use • Consumers who comparison shop in
welfare online referral services and get price information brick and mortar stores pay more for
online pay less than those who do not5 goods & services than those who
comparison shop online
Equity Argument Ignores
History and Economics
– Equality argument not true for any other
infrastructure
• Baseline power, transportation, water
capabilities provided to rural; not equal
capabilities
• Broadband is different from voice, as there is a
range of qualities
Bad Seed 5
Bad Idea Good Idea
• It’s about the residential • It’s about leading in
market strategic markets
Question:
What would improve society more:
100M everywhere or Gigs to strategic
institutions and baseline broadband
everywhere?
U.S. Last in Ranking in Improvement in
Innovation Capability (1999‐2009)
• 1 China 19.5 • 21 Sweden 10.7
• 2 Singapore 19.0 • 22 France 10.6
• 3 Lithuania 14.8 • 23 Portugal 10.1
• 4 Estonia 18.1 • 24 Malta 9.9
• 5 Denmark 17.4 • 25 Belgium 9.5
• 6 Luxembourg 16.9 • 26 EU‐25** 9.4
• 7 Slovenia `16.7 • 27 Poland 9.4
• 8 Russia 15.2 • 28 UK 9.0
• 9 Cyprus 14.7 • 29 EU‐15 8.5
• 10 Japan 14.4 • 30 Mexico 8.0
• 11 Hungary 14.3 • 31 Netherlands 7.9
• 12 Slovakia 14.1 • 32 Australia 7.4
• 13 Czech Republic 13.8 • 33 Finland 7.3
• 14 India 13.6 • 34 Canada 6.3
• 15 Latvia 13.4 • 35 Germany 6.3
• 16 Austria 13.2 • 36 Italy 5.2
• 17 S. Korea 13.2 • 37 NAFTA* 5.1
• 18 Ireland 12.9 • 38 Greece 5.1
• 19 EU‐10** 12.8 • 39 Brazil 3.7
• 20 Spain 10.8 • 40 U.S. 2.7
Some Consequences of Bad Ideas
• Policy serves wired companies, not consumer choice or
new needs
• Policy serves history (wired voice), not markets
(moving to wireless data), or the future (innovation
ecosystem)
• We focus on wrong issues (non‐strategic speed) and
ignore opportunities (applications in public data;
rethinking processes)
• We never reexamine priorities and fall behind
competitors
• We make wasteful investments; don’t make wise ones
– $17,000 per line per year to homes that don’t want fiber connection but want
mobile
– We fund multiple wireless competitors in some areas, but do not fund in high‐
cost wireless areas
– Still no national interoperable wireless public safety network
Right Ideas for Policy Framework
• Right tools and incentives broadly distributed
– Democratization of knowledge exchange
• Rethinking processes in light of new
communications platform should be highest
priority, not afterthought
– Killer applications drive network demand
– Government has levers that drive killer
applications
Today’s Programmatic Agenda:
Democratization of
Knowledge Exchange
• Market will not get tools everywhere society
needs them
– As has been true of all essential infrastructure
2010 total projected federal outlays to support Universal Service
$1.2 billion in
discounts for
Includes money for multiple basic telephone
service for low -
wireless companies but not incom e persons
unserved wireless areas
No money
$4.6 billion for
netw ork for digital
deploym ent to literacy
high-cost areas
$2.7 billion in
subsidies to
connect schools
Most of this and libraries
money does not
go to unserved
areas…… $214 m illion in
subsidies for
rural health care
com m unications
Current Program Gets Very Fast Networks to Some
but Leaves Millions Unserved
The smallest rural ILECs2 are upgrading … And receive more high‐cost … Even though most non‐upgraded
their plant to bring broadband to rural support than AT&T, Verizon and access lines are owned by those
consumers ... Qwest. . . three companies
Percent share of rural coop telco lines that Percent share of total USF high‐cost Percent of total U.S. access lines not
have been upgraded to offer select speeds support for ILEC lines, 20084 upgraded to offer broadband
of internet access3
200 kbps
(incremental)
AT&T. Verizon
* Owned by
and Qwest5
others
* *
*
* +17 pct
* * pts
Owned by AT&T, Verizon
* * * * * others and Qwest5
In addition, the fund faces systemic, structural problems
High‐cost fund has been *1 … Driving a higher USF contribution factor
rapidly growing… * (Percentage)
($, billions)
*
*
* CAGR *
* *
* *
*
* *
* * * * * * * * *
*
*
… While assessable revenue base declines *
($, billions) Contribution
*
* factor has more
* *
than doubled
*
* since 2000
* *
*
*
* *
As demand for funding grows, and the revenue base subject to assessment shrinks,
consumers and businesses will face higher contribution factors in the future
And that brings us back to…
Insert Title Page
Blair Levin
September, 2010
(presentation in beta and always will be)
How do we have a system
that serves today’s priorities
and not the inertia of history?
Top Priority: Unserved Areas
Additional Tasks For Healthy
Ecosystem
Parameters for Support: 4 down/1 Up
Actual Download Speeds Necessary to Run Concurrent Applications (Mbps)
Target is Greater than what Most Americans Receive Today
Percent of subscribers by ACTUAL top speed received
Emerging
25% Utility Full media Advanced
multimedia
20
18
15
15
10 9 9
8 7
7
5 5 5 4
5 4 3
2
+
1M
2M
3M
4M
5M
6M
7M
8M
9M
M
6K
0K
8K
M
10
25
50
76
~50% of U.S. consumers receive less than 3.0 Mbps 10
Target Would Put US at Leading Edge of Universalization
“Universal”
Country availability target Type of speed Date
(download)
Implement merger conditions for eligible $4 billion
telecommunications carriers (Verizon, Sprint)
Phase out Interstate Access Support (IAS) subsidy $4 Billion
Freeze Interstate Common Line Support (ICLS) $1.8 Billion
Phase out remaining legacy High Cost support for
competitive eligible telecommunications carriers (ETCs) $4.8 Billion
Total saved over 10‐year period $15.6 billion
Distribution Principles
Distribution Method
Consequence in Terms of Funding
Criticism Welcome
• “This plan is in beta • Table stakes for critics:
and always will be.” Must answer 4
questions
– National Broadband Plan
Chapter 17 – What is minimum speed
“Implementation and eligible for subsidy?
Benchmarks” – How much will it cost?
– How will we pay for it?
– And……
Fourth Question
By what principle of economics or justice do
we charge a poor urban family that can’t
afford 1.5M DSL service $5 a month to
subsidize 100M fiber to a rural second home
to the tune of $17,000 a year?