1 JUNE 2008 DU ET AL.

2451

Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature off Java and Sumatra in a

Global GCM*
YAN DU⫹ AND TANGDONG QU
International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

GARY MEYERS
Integrated Marine Observing System, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

(Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 23 October 2007)

ABSTRACT

Using results from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), this study assesses the mixed layer heat
budget to identify the mechanisms that control the interannual variation of sea surface temperature (SST)
off Java and Sumatra. The analysis indicates that during the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years, cold
SST anomalies are phase locked with the season cycle. They may exceed ⫺3°C near the coast of Sumatra
and extend as far westward as 80°E along the equator. The depth of the thermocline has a prominent
influence on the generation and maintenance of SST anomalies. In the normal years, cooling by upwelling–
entrainment is largely counterbalanced by warming due to horizontal advection. In the cooling episode of
IOD events, coastal upwelling–entrainment is enhanced, and as a result of mixed layer shoaling, the barrier
layer no longer exists, so that the effect of upwelling–entrainment can easily reach the surface mixed layer.
Horizontal advection spreads the cold anomaly to the interior tropical Indian Ocean. Near the coast of Java,
the northern branch of an anomalous anticyclonic circulation spreads the cold anomaly to the west near the
equator. Both the anomalous advection and the enhanced, wind-driven upwelling generate the cold SST
anomaly of the positive IOD. At the end of the cooling episode, the enhanced surface thermal forcing
overbalances the cooling effect by upwelling/entrainment, and leads to a warming in SST off Java and
Sumatra.

1. Introduction face temperature (SST) anomalies is still lacking. The

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an important fac-
tor influencing global climate (Saji et al. 1999; Webster
et al. 1999; Allan et al. 2001; Yamagata et al. 2002; Saji
and Yamagata 2003). As such, it has been intensively
studied recently, but a quantitative understanding of
the mechanisms that generate and maintain its sea sur-
* International Pacific Research Center Contribution Number
487 and School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Con-
tribution Number 7218.
⫹ Current affiliation: LED, South China Sea Institute of
Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China.
Corresponding author address: Dr. Yan Du, IPRC/SOEST,
University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu,
HI 96822.
E-mail: yandu@hawaii.edu
positive phase of IOD is characterized by a cold SST
anomaly in the eastern basin and a warm SST anomaly
in the western basin. The largest SST anomaly occurs in
the eastern basin near the coast of Java and Sumatra
and may fall below its long-term average by as much as
⫺3°C. The genesis of this anomaly is the subject of this
study.
Satellite-observed SST (Fig. 1) and chlorophyll con-
centration (Fig. 2) suggest that ocean dynamics plays a
role. During the 1994 and 1997 positive IOD events,
cold SST anomaly (⬍⫺1°C) extended to the west of
90°E along the equator (Fig. 1, center and right panels),
while chlorophyll concentration suggests that this sur-
face cooling signature originates from the subsurface in
the coastal region off Java and Sumatra (Fig. 2b). The
widespread surface cooling signature, however, does
not occur during non-IOD years (Figs. 1a,d,g ; Fig. 2a).
This seems to suggest that the southeastern tropical
Indian Ocean (STIO) experiences a transformation
from weak SST depressions off Java during normal

DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1753.1

© 2008 American Meteorological Society

2452 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 21

FIG. 1. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Oceans Pathfinder SST anomaly (°C) and Special Sensor Microwave
Imager (SSM/I) 10-m wind velocity anomaly (m s⫺1). AVHRR SST is from 1985–99 with a 1/6° resolution, and SSM/I wind is from
1987–99 with a 1° resolution. Note that the SSM/I speeds are observed by the satellite instruments, whose directions are assigned by
an optimal combination of these speeds, an atmospheric model’s output, and in situ data (Atlas et al. 1996).

years to strong SST depressions off Java and Sumatra
during the positive IOD years, and upwelling off Java–
Sumatra is associated with the anomalous cooling. The
SST anomaly results in an abnormal condition both in
the ocean and the atmosphere and consequently a large
variation in regional and global climate (Saji et al. 1999;
Yamagata et al. 2002; Saji and Yamagata 2003).
Ocean dynamics during an IOD event is a key issue
for climate research because it is the physical basis for
predictability. The IOD anomaly persists for several
months, like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
in the Pacific, and coupled numerical models can pre-
dict the IOD patterns as well as they predict ENSO. In
a recent study, Luo et al. (2007) successfully predicted
the 2006 IOD event using retrospective ensemble fore-
casts. But they failed to hindcast the strong 1997 IOD
event. The predictions seemed to be dependent on the
specification of subsurface conditions off Java and
Sumatra. An understanding of the surface layer heat
budget and in particular its relationship to thermocline
dynamics is required as a foundation for improving
coupled model performance.
During most years, the SST off Java and Sumatra
decreases less than one degree in austral winter, despite
the upwelling favorable wind (Fig. 1) and low net heat
flux (NHF) into the surface ocean (Qu et al. 1994). The
mean seasonal cycle in the mixed layer (ML) heat bud-
get shows a delicate balance maintained between hori-
zontal advection, upwelling/entrainment, and barrier
layer (BL) formation (Du et al. 2005). The earlier study
identified two distinct thermodynamic regimes in the
STIO. South of Java, the warm advection by the Indo-
nesian Throughflow (ITF) neutralizes the cold up-
welling water, and consequently SST depression is sup-
pressed. West of Sumatra, a BL is formed under the
mixed layer all year-round (Qu and Meyers 2005b),
impeding the cold water from entraining into the ML.
Warm advection and BL formation combined with up-
welling are the primary processes that control the sea-
sonal variation of SST near Sumatra.
1 JUNE 2008 DU ET AL. 2453

FIG. 2. Natural logarithm of the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFs) chlorophyll concentration
(mg m⫺3) in October–December for (a) 1998–2003 and (b) 1997 with a horizontal 0.25° resolution. Two boxes
indicate the region west of Sumatra (2°N–5°S, 95°–105°E) and the region south of Java (12°–7°S, 105°–120°E). The
line between Sumatra and west Australia indicates the IX1 XBT line. The open circle presents the northern end
of IX1 XBT line. For further information about SeaWiFs, please refer to the Web site (http://oceancolor.gsfc.
nasa.gov/SeaWiFS/).

Can this delicate balance be maintained on the inter-
annual time scale? Several earlier studies have ad-
dressed this issue. Among others, Murtugudde et al.
(2000) investigated the dynamic and thermodynamic
processes in the Indian Ocean during the 1997/98 IOD
event. They found that the cooling in the eastern basin
resulted from unusually strong upwelling along the
equator and Sumatra. The strong Sumatra upwelling
was forced both locally by the strong alongshore winds
and remotely by equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves.
Yu and Rienecker (1999) attributed the local southeast
wind anomaly to the impact of ENSO. The enhanced
southeast monsoon then forces the cold surface water
away from the coastal area. Susanto et al. (2001) related
the SST cooling off Java and Sumatra to decreased heat
transport by the ITF. During El Niño years, the ITF
carries colder than normal surface water into the re-
gion, helping induce a stronger than normal upwelling
near the coast of Java and Sumatra. The cooling mecha-
nisms identified in the above studies are potentially all
active at different times. However, the studies were
based on observations or model results for a relatively
short time. A careful examination of the ocean’s role in
the interannual SST variability for a reasonably long
period is still lacking. For example, considering the fact
that IOD and El Niño concurred in 1997, one might
expect that the relationship between the ITF and the
SST depression off Sumatra only occurs in this special
case, as identified by Susanto et al. (2001), and not
when IOD develops without El Niño. How upwelling
strengthens and cold SST extends westward to the west
of Sumatra during an IOD event is still an open ques-
tion. Long-time in situ observations and modeling
simulations are needed for further investigation.
Given the limitation of existing observations, this
study analyzes the reanalysis products from a global
general circulation model, the Simple Ocean Data As-
similation reanalysis version 1.4.2 (SODA; Carton and
Giese 2008). Recently available satellite data and in situ
observations are also used to give more detailed infor-
mation about the ocean surface and atmosphere forc-
ing. The results of the analysis are presented in the
following sections: in section 2, we give model descrip-
tion and validation. In section 3, we describe the SST
depression off Java and Sumatra and its variation on
the interannual time scales, and introduce an IOD in-
dex. In section 4, we investigate the interannual varia-
tions of the upwelling processes in the region. The in-
terannual variations of mixed layer, barrier layer, wind
forcing, and upper-layer circulation are also presented
in this section. In section 5, we examine the role of
ocean processes in the mixed layer heat budget. Results
are summarized in the last section.
2. SODA products and validation
Results from SODA are used in this study to provide
estimates of the heat budget in the STIO. The SODA is
forced by daily wind stress and heat flux from bulk
formulas from the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and
spans a 44-yr period from January 1958 to December
2001. Surface freshwater flux is provided by the Global
Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly sat-
ellite-gauge merged product combined with evapora-
tion from bulk formula, for the period from 1979 to
2001 (Adler et al. 2003). The assimilated observational
dataset includes the historical archive of hydrographic
profiles by ship, moored hydrographic observations,
2454 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
and remotely sensed SST (Stephens et al. 2002; Boyer
et al. 2002). The assimilation is carried out every 10
days, using the Incremental Analysis Update method-
ology (Bloom et al. 1996). Averages of model output
variables (temperature, salinity, and velocity) are saved
at 5-day intervals. The K-Profile Parameterization
(KPP) mixing scheme is employed for the vertical dif-
fusion of momentum, heat, and salt (Large et al. 1994).
The lateral subgrid-scale processes are treated with a
biharmonic mixing scheme (Smith et al. 2000). The
computational domain extends to the North and South
Poles of the earth, with a horizontal resolution of
0.4°⫻0.25°. Vertical resolution varies from 10 m in the
upper levels to 500 m near the bottom, with a total of 40
vertical levels and a maximum depth of 5624 m. Bottom
topography is reconstructed from the 1/30° analysis
with modification for certain passages. For more details
about the SODA, please see Carton and Giese (2008).
The model outputs used for the present analysis are
those available online. Model output variables are
remapped onto a uniform 0.5° ⫻ 0.5° ⫻ 40-level grid
with a temporal resolution in monthly averaged form.
Water properties in the model remain conserved in the
remapping. The study region is between 85°–130°E and
25°S–5°N.
We calculate the depth of ML (MLD) by specifying a
difference in potential density from the surface salinity
and a specified temperature difference, ⌬T, from the
SST. Similarly, the isothermal layer (ITL) is defined by
specifying ⌬T only (Kara et al. 2000). Salinity stratifi-
cation can generate an ML within the ITL leaving an
intermediate layer known as the barrier layer (Lukas
and Lindstrom 1991; Sprintall and Tomczak 1992). In
the present study, we select ⌬T ⫽ 0.8°C. Though dif-
ferent values can also be used, our results are insensi-
tive to the selection of ⌬T. Linear vertical interpolation
is used to estimate the MLD and ITL depth.
The MLD and barrier layer thickness (BLT) from
SODA were validated with in situ observations (Qu
and Meyers 2005b; Meyers et al. 1995) and with the
tenth-degree resolution OGCM for Earth Simulator
(OFES) driven by observed atmospheric forcing with-
out ocean data assimilation (Masumoto et al. 2004).
The validation focuses on two dynamically distinct re-
gions (Du et al. 2005): west of Sumatra (2°N–5°S, 95°–
105°E) and south of Java (12°–7°S, 105°–120°E), as
shown in Fig. 2. West of Sumatra, the BLT from SODA
is consistent with observations in phase, but the ampli-
tude of the semiannual variation relative to annual
variation is somewhat larger (Fig. 3a). On the other
hand, the amplitude of MLD variation is somewhat
smaller, compared to both observations and OFES
(Fig. 3c). South of Java, SODA’s simulation of MLD is
VOLUME 21
very good, because it is a data-rich region (Qu and
Meyers 2005a, their Fig. 1). SODA simulates the bar-
rier layer thickness near Java moderately well but with
a phase lag relative to OFES and observations.
On the interannual time scale, the simulated ITL
depth is compared with in situ observations on the
northern end of the IX1 XBT line (Meyers et al. 1995;
Pigot and Meyers 1999). In the selected 1° ⫻ 2° bin
(8.5°–6.5°S, 105°–106°E), four profiles are averaged
each month to better present the general characteristics
south of Java. Defined as the depth where water tem-
perature is 0.8°C colder than its surface value, the simu-
lated ITL depth is highly correlated (r ⫽ 0.90) with in
situ observations, with the former leading by about one
month (Fig. 3e). West of Sumatra, the simulated BLT
also looks reasonable on the seasonal time scale (Fig.
3a). Despite some quantitative differences, results from
SODA have a generally good representation of the
mixed layer dynamics and thermodynamics in the re-
gion. This merits a further analysis of mixed layer heat
budget as shown in the following sections.
3. SST depressions off Java and Sumatra
The eastern Indian Ocean is viewed as part of the
warm pool extended from the Pacific, with SST higher
than 28°C all year-round. In July–September, the pre-
vailing southeast monsoon favors upwelling along the
coast off Java and Sumatra. But, during normal years,
the SST depression there is less than 1°. When positive
IOD occurs, the cooling is much larger, and comparable
with that in the eastern Pacific upwelling zones, with
the low SST signature extending farther westward into
the interior (Webster et al. 1999; Saji et al. 1999).
Based on the criterion put forward by Saji et al.
(1999), the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) (SSTwest ⫺
SSTeast) ⫺ mean(SSTwest ⫺ SSTeast) is calculated using
SODA data (Fig. 4), where SSTwest is the SST averaged
in (10°S–10°N, 50°–70°E), and SSTeast is the SST aver-
aged in (10°S–0°, 90°–100°E). The 13-month mean filter
was applied twice to remove the mean seasonal cycle.
The DMI calculated from SODA shows a good agree-
ment with Saji et al. (1999), as expected (figure not
presented). Distinct peaks in DMI occur in 1961, 1967,
1972, 1994, and 1997, or so-called significant IOD years,
when the averaged SST anomalies exceed 0.4°C in any
three successive months during August–December
(Saji et al. 1999). Large SST depressions off Sumatra
(Fig. 4) contribute significantly to the positive DMI
during these years. We notice that moderate IOD
events also occur in 1963, 1976, and 1982. But the SST
depressions are weaker, compared with those five sig-
nificant IOD events.
Another interesting feature is the phase difference
1 JUNE 2008 DU ET AL. 2455

FIG. 3. Validation of (top) BLT, (middle) MLD, and (bottom) ITL depth from SODA with
output from high-resolution model OFES (Masumoto et al. 2004), and observations (Qu and
Meyers 2005b; Meyers et al. 1995). The ITL depth is averaged at the northern end of the IX1
XBT line (8.5°–6.5°S, 105°–106°E) and its position is shown in Fig. 2b. (e) The common period
spans from May 1983 to December 2001. A 13-month running average has been applied twice
to remove seasonal cycle. The mean ITL depth is 43 m from SODA and 50 m from the
observations.

FIG. 4. SODA SST anomalies averaged in the region west of Sumatra and south of Java,
superposed with the DMI. Here, the 13-month running average has been applied twice and
the linear trend has been removed.
2456 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 21

FIG. 5. Volume transport anomalies of ITF along IX1 XBT line (Sv), superposed with SOI.
The climatological annual mean, 15.0 Sv, has been removed before plotting. The direction
toward the Indian Ocean is defined as positive. The position of the IX1 XBT line is shown in
Fig. 2b. The five significant IOD events are shaded.

between the DMI and SST depression off Sumatra,
with the latter leading by several months in some par-
ticular IOD events, such as 1967 and 1976. The persis-
tent warming in the western Indian Ocean could be
responsible for this phase difference. For example, as
the cooling signature off Java and Sumatra turns
weaker in late fall or early winter of 1976, the tempera-
ture difference between the two sides of the basin still
remains large, presumably due to the westward propa-
gation of downwelling Rossby waves that suppress the
thermocline dome in the western Indian Ocean (Xie et
al. 2002; Yamagata et al. 2004).
Figure 4 shows the interannual variation of SST off
Java and Sumatra. On the seasonal time scales, earlier
studies have shown that these two regions are domi-
nated by different dynamics and thermodynamics (Du
et al. 2005). On the interannual time scale, we see that
SST has a larger anomaly in the region west of Sumatra
than in the region south of Java. During the three stron-
gest IOD events, 1961, 1994, and 1997, negative SST
anomaly exceeds ⫺0.5°C in the region west of Sumatra,
while it reaches only ⫺0.25°C in the region south of
Java. In 1963, 1967, 1972, and 1976, SST anomalies in
these two regions are of equal importance. In 1982,
negative SST anomalies can be seen only in the region
south of Java.
4. Ocean dynamics of the region
a. Remote forcing conveyed by ITF
The STIO is a unique tropical ocean, mostly because
it has a direct impact from the Pacific through the Indo-
nesian Throughflow (Gordon 1986; Wyrtki 1987). The
ITF has been estimated to be about 10–12 Sv (1 Sv ⬅
106 m3 s⫺1) (Godfrey 1996; Gordon 2001), and it trans-
ports about 0.4–1.2 PW of heat from the Pacific to the
Indian Ocean (Vranes et al. 2002; England and Huang
2005). The warm upper layers in the STIO can be as-
cribed in a large part to the heat transport of the ITF
and the deep thermocline transmitted from the western
Pacific Ocean. For the mean seasonal cycle at least, it
has been shown that the oceanic heat transport by the
ITF is a key process balancing the cooling by upwelling
in the region south of Java (Qu et al. 1994; Du et al.
2005). But, the ITF has only limited or no influence in
the region west of Sumatra (Du et al. 2005). As dis-
cussed in the previous section, the large SST depression
off Sumatra is a very important component of IOD.
The simulated ITF by SODA is consistent with ear-
lier observations (Meyers 1996; England and Huang
2005), with a long-term mean value of 15.0 Sv. As
shown in Fig. 5, on the interannual time scale, the ITF
variability is closely related to the Pacific ENSO. The
correlation coefficient between the ITF transport and
Southern Oscillation index (SOI) reaches 0.76 at the
95% confidence level. The ITF turns weaker in 1965,
1982–83, 1986, 1992–94, and 1997, when El Niño occurs.
No significant correlation is found between the ITF
transport and IOD. During three significant IOD
events, 1961, 1994, and 1997, the ITF transport de-
creases only in 1997, when it occurs with a strong El
Niño event. During three moderate IOD events, 1967,
1972, and 1976, the ITF transport is mostly normal or
slightly increases. During the weaker IOD event of
1982, the ITF transport decreases. The somewhat inde-
pendent behavior of ITF relative to IOD has been at-
tributed to winds over the Indian Ocean (e.g., Wijffels
and Meyers 2004). Those wind anomalies have a strong
impact on oceanic conditions off Sumatra (e.g., Qu et
al. 2008).
SST anomaly has a strong signature in the region off
Sumatra on the interannual time scales (Fig. 4). Can the
ITF have a direct influence on the SST there? For a
relatively short period of time from 1980 to 2000, the
SST anomaly off Sumatra appears to have good corre-
spondence with the ITF transport, consistent with what
1 JUNE 2008 DU ET AL. 2457

FIG. 6. Heat flux anomalies averaged in the region west of Sumatra and south of Java: (a)
NHF and LHF and (b) shortwave flux (SWF) and DeltQ. The data are from NCEP spanning
from 1958 to 2001, and from OAFlux from WHOI spanning from 1981 to 2002. For surface
heat flux, positive values indicate downward fluxes.

has been found by Susanto et al. (2001). But, this does
not seem to be true before the mid-1970s (Fig. 5). The
cause of this change is not understood. It is likely that
the SST anomaly off Sumatra is more related to the
horizontal advection in the surface layer (Du et al.
2005) than to the total ITF transport (Fig. 5). The cir-
culation in the STIO shows that the westward South
Equatorial Current is strongest near 10°–11°S. Most of
the surface ITF water flows westward around the west-
ern end of Java and has less influence farther north
along the coast of Sumatra (Song et al. 2004; Qu and
Meyers 2005a).
b. Local upwelling and horizontal advection
Following the analysis by Qu (2003), we analyze the
mixed layer heat budget based on the 44-yr SODA out-
puts. Since SODA provides no surface heat flux prod-
uct, we cannot close the mixed layer heat budget. To
gain a qualitative view of how surface heat flux works in
generating SST anomalies, here we include the heat
flux data from the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction [NCEP; data provided by the National Oce-
anic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System
Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) Physical Sci-
ences Division, Boulder, Colorado, at http://www.cdc.
noaa.gov/] and objectively analyzed air-sea heat flux
data (OAflux) from the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institute (WHOI; Yu and Weller 2007) in the region
west of Sumatra (Fig. 6).
The NCEP data span from 1958 to 2001 and the
OAflux data span from 1981 to 2002. Qualitatively, the
two datasets show similar results during their common
period, except for a larger variability in OAflux. In both
cases, latent heat flux (LHF) contributes most to the
net heat flux variability. In 1961, 1994, and 1997, for
example, when SST depression is enhanced (Fig. 4), the
anomalies of the atmosphere and ocean specific humid-
ity difference (DeltQ, specific humidity at 2 m above
sea level minus that at the sea surface) are positive and
approach its maximum strength (Fig. 6b). This signifi-
cantly reduces the releasing of heat through evapora-
tion and warms the ocean, despite the enhanced south-
easterly wind. In the mean time, the incoming short-
wave radiation increases as a result of decreased
cloudiness (Fig. 6b). Thus, the mixed layer, rendered
relatively cold by an upwelling–entrainment, also ab-
sorbs more radiation because of decreased cloudiness.
The combined effect of the two processes results in
positive net surface heat flux anomaly into the ocean
(Fig. 6a). This surface heat flux anomaly counterbal-
ances the cooling by ocean dynamics during the epi-
sode. The result is consistent with a previous study by
Tokinaga and Tanimoto (2004).
Figure 7 shows the horizontal advection and vertical
entrainment in the two regions, west of Sumatra and
2458 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 21

FIG. 7. SODA mixed layer heat budget (°C month⫺1) for the region (top) west of Sumatra and
(bottom) south of Java: (left) Ent ⫹ Adv and (right) Ent and Adv. Ent stands for vertical entrainment
and Adv for horizontal advection.

south of Java. The sum of advection and entrainment is
on the lhs and the components are on the rhs, which are
viewed as the role of ocean dynamics in the mixed layer
heat budget. During the period from 1963 to 1993, hori-
zontal advection neutralizes most of the cooling en-
trainment, and as a consequence, ocean dynamics ap-
pears to play no significant role in the mixed layer heat
budget, which is supported by two previous studies on
the seasonal time cycle (Qu et al. 1994; Du et al. 2005).
But, this does not seem to be true when IOD occurs. In
1961 and 1997, for example, the horizontal advection
becomes a significant cooling process, and its combina-
tion with vertical entrainment results in a large SST
depression off Sumatra. South of Java, ocean dynamics
helps to cool SST during all three significant IOD
events, 1961, 1994, and 1997, as it does west of Sumatra
(Fig. 7), though its amplitude is somewhat smaller.
Using the NCEP heat flux and SODA MLD, we cal-
culate the surface thermal forcing and compare it with
model output (figure not shown). Although the mixed
layer heat budget cannot be closed, the comparison
does show that the surface thermal forcing plays a role
in counterbalancing the cooling by horizontal advection
and vertical entrainment during IOD years. The surface
thermal forcing becomes dominant and changes the
SST tendency after November/December in most cases.
1961, 1994, and 1997 (Fig. 8). When these strong IOD
events occur, the MLD gets shallower by more than 5
m, and the BLT gets thinner by more than 3 m. The
shoaling ML makes SST more susceptive to the entrain-
ment from below, while the thinning BLT reduces the
barrier between the mixed layer and the thermocline,
allowing the subsurface water to have a direct influence
on the SST. A similar phenomenon is seen in the MLD
but not in the BLT south of Java, where the BLT re-
mains almost unchanged throughout the events. SODA
underestimated the amplitude of BLT seasonal varia-
tion south of Java (Fig. 3b); consequently, the BLT
interannual variation presented in Fig. 8 (upper panel)
might have been underestimated.
The BLT also decreases in 1963, 1982, and 1991 west
of Sumatra. Using the Climate Prediction Center

c. Mixed layer and barrier layer

The MLD and BLT are important factors influencing
the SST. West of Sumatra, there is a thick BLT imped-
ing the cold thermocline water from entering the mixed
layer and this has been interpreted as evidence why
upwelling does not have a significant impact on the SST
during normal years (Du et al. 2005). Both MLD and FIG. 8. (top) MLD and (bottom) BLT anomalies (m) off Java
BLT shoal during IOD years, especially in the events of and Sumatra from SODA.
1 JUNE 2008 DU ET AL. 2459

FIG. 9. BLTs off Sumatra from SODA and rain-rate anomalies (mm month⫺1) from the
CPC CMAP superposed with the normalized SOI.

(CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; data
provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Divi-
sion), which spans from 1979 to 2004 (Fig. 9), we find
that the variation of BLT is closely related to rainfall.
The correlation coefficient between the two reaches
0.60 at the 95% confidence level. Meanwhile, no signif-
icant correlation is seen between the MLD and rainfall
(figure not shown), indicating that other important pro-
cesses are involved in the formation of MLD.
Upwelling is an important process influencing the
MLD and BLT. In the region south of Java and west of
Sumatra, upwelling driven by coastal wind tends to up-
lift the thermocline and thus reduce the MLD and BLT
during most IOD events (Fig. 8). To further investigate
the spatial distribution of BLT and vertical entrain-
ment, we conduct an empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) analysis (Fig. 10). The first EOF mode of verti-
cal entrainment shows a strong signature near the coast
of Java and Sumatra, with all peaks occurring during
IOD years 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1994, and
1997. Vertical entrainment is narrowly confined in the
coastal region, reflecting the direct influence of coastal
upwelling forced by the southeast monsoon. The first
mode of BLT shows negative anomalies west of
Sumatra in 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1994, and
1997, corresponding well with the enhanced vertical en-
trainment. Their correlation reaches 0.67 at the 95%
confidence level.
d. Wind stress and current
Horizontal circulation is an important process redis-
tributing cold upwelling water from the coastal region,

FIG. 10. The first EOF mode of vertical entrainment : (a) Ent and (b) BLT spatial mode,
and (c) temporal coefficient.
2460 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 11. Mixed layer zonal current (U; cm s⫺1) anomalies and ERA-40 zonal wind stress
(WSU; Pa) anomalies in the region (top) west of Sumatra and (bottom) south of Java.
and has large variations during IOD events (Fig. 11).
The enhanced southeast monsoon is mostly responsible
for the westward current anomaly. West of Sumatra,
surface current anomaly is westward in the years 1961,
1976, 1982, 1994, and 1997 (Fig. 11a), when the en-
hanced southeast monsoon prevails. South of Java,
westward current anomaly is most evident in the years
1972, 1994, and 1997, corresponding with a large zonal
wind anomaly (Fig. 11b). The anomalous surface cur-
rent advects cold water away from the coastal region
and spreads it westward toward the interior ocean.
During the strongest IOD events, 1961, 1994, and 1997,
horizontal advection is of comparable strength with the
vertical entrainment west of Sumatra (Fig. 7).
Westward current anomalies also develop south of
Java in 1964, 1967, 1969, 1975, and 1982, and west of
Sumatra in 1967 and 1971, despite the eastward wind
anomalies (Fig. 11). These westward current anomalies
may be attributed to remote processes. Among others,
the Wyrtki Jets (Wyrtki 1973) originating from the cen-
tral equatorial Indian Ocean are of particular impor-
tance. The current near the Sumatra coast can also be
influenced by the circulation in the Bay of Bengal. This
detail needs to be investigated further by research.
5. Heat budget analysis
The large SST depression observed in the STIO is
always phase locked with the seasonal upwelling in the
VOLUME 21
region off Java and Sumatra. During an IOD event,
with the northward movement of enhanced southeast-
erly wind anomalies (Yu and Rienecker 1999), the ac-
tive upwelling center moves from the region south of
Java to the region west of Sumatra. As a consequence,
the region west of Sumatra encounters a strong up-
welling, which further has a notable impact on the local
mixed layer heat budget.
a. Area-averaged heat budget
Five significant IOD events (1961/62, 1967/68, 1972/
73, 1994/95, and 1997/98) are combined to produce a
composite IOD event. Figures 12a,b show the seasonal
cycle of the mixed layer heat budget of this composite
event averaged in the two areas. South of Java, the SST
decreases from April to August. Heat advection by the
ITF has almost no influence on the SST before October
and only mildly warms it after that season. A strong
vertical entrainment occurs in July, and it continues
until next January, with its maximum strength in No-
vember. The vertical entrainment neutralizes the weak
horizontal warming advection and is primarily respon-
sible for the negative temperature tendency from April
to August. Surface heat flux intensifies from September
through December, which overbalances the effect of
vertical entrainment and leads to a warming in the ML.
West of Sumatra, the temperature tendency reaches
its minimum in August, about two months after it does
south of Java. Cold entrainment spans from April to
1 JUNE 2008
FIG. 12. Mixed layer heat budget (°C month⫺1) anomalies in (top) a composite IOD event and
(bottom) the 1997/98 IOD event for the region (left) south of Java and (right) west of Sumatra. Ent
stands for vertical entrainment, Adv for horizontal advection, Tt for temperature tendency, and NHF for
surface net heat flux.
next February. Differing from what was discussed for
the seasonal cycle (Du et al. 2005), the entrainment
contributes significantly to the temperature tendency
on the interannual time scale. Horizontal advection is
negative, and it explains more than half of the cooling
from August to November. The cooling horizontal ad-
vection cannot originate remotely from the ITF; in-
stead, it results from the intensified southeast monsoon.
Heated by the incoming surface heat flux, the tempera-
ture tendency changes its sign in mid-September
against the cooling of ocean dynamics. This result is
consistent with earlier studies on the role of surface
heat flux in the turnabout of IOD events (Murtugudde
et al. 2000; Tokinaga and Tanimoto 2004).
As a special case, we examine the 1997 IOD event
and compare it with the composite event. South of Java,
SST decreases from mid-May to September, mostly due
to the cooling by vertical entrainment. Horizontal ad-
vection and surface heat flux are the primary heating
processes. Different from what discussed for the com-
posite event, surface heat flux keeps warming the sur-
face ocean nearly all the time in 1997. Despite the cool-
ing by vertical entrainment, the combined effect of sur-
face heat flux and horizontal advection generates a
warming in SST from October to December, which is
similar to the composite event. West of Sumatra, the
SST anomaly reaches its minimum in mid-October,
with a phase delay of about one month relative to that
DU ET AL. 2461
in the composite event (Figs. 12c,d). Cold entrainment
starts to appear in mid-May, and keeps cooling the re-
gion until next February. Its maximum occurs in De-
cember. Horizontal advection cools the region mostly
from July to next January, with its maximum in Novem-
ber. Surface net heat flux reaches its maximum in No-
vember, turning the SST tendency from negative to
positive (Tokinaga and Tanimoto 2004). The shoaling
of MLD provides a favorable condition for this conver-
sion by trapping the incoming surface net heat flux in a
thinner surface layer (Fig. 8).
b. Spatial distribution
The 1997 IOD event is one of the strongest since
1960. Despite some quantitative differences, it repre-
sents most common features of the IOD events (Fig.
12). We select this event as an example to discuss the
spatial distribution of the mixed layer heat budget.
In July–October, the negative temperature tendency
first appears near the coast of Java and Sumatra and
then extends farther westward to the interior ocean
near the equator (Fig. 13). It turns positive in Novem-
ber–December. Consonant with this SST change, we
see cold horizontal advection in July–August south of
Java and in November–December west of Sumatra
(Fig. 13). The cold entrainment occurs only in the
coastal area (Fig. 14a), and remains almost unchanged
from September to December. During this period, the
2462 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 21

FIG. 13. (top) Temperature tendency (Tt) and (bottom) horizontal advection (Adv) anomalies (°C month⫺1) averaged over two
months in 1997: (left) July–August, (middle) September–October, and (right) November–December. For horizontal advection, positive
values indicate warming the mixed layer.

MLD drops by more than 10 m near the coast of Java
and Sumatra (Fig. 15a). With a significant decrease of
rainfall (Fig. 14b), the barrier layer disappears west of
Sumatra, with a negative anomaly exceeding ⫺10 m
(Fig. 15b).
The surface current anomaly can be accounted for by
the westward extension of the cold signature. Careful
examination of surface current shows a strong anticy-
clonic circulation anomaly in the region between Aus-
tralia and Indonesia, mostly to the east of 110°E. The
formation mechanisms of this circulation are not under-
stood. Both the mean wind stress curl (Fig. 16b) and
intraseasonal variations (Feng and Wijffels 2002; Yu
and Potemra 2006) likely play a role in its formation.
Farther northwest, we see a widespread westward sur-
face current anomaly, a unique feature of the 1997/98
event.
In July–August, as the MLD and BLT shoal (Fig. 15),
cold upwelling water reaches the sea surface along the
coast of Java and Sumatra. The surface current then
advects the cold signature westward. As a consequence,
horizontal advection shows a cooling effect in a large
area between 100° and 110°E (Fig. 13d). To the east,
near the outlet of Lombok Strait, the warming by the
ITF counterbalances the cooling by the upwelling (Fig.
13d), and thus the temperature tendency turns positive
(Fig. 13a).
In September–October, the MLD and BLT continue
to shoal and the vertical entrainment gets stronger. Sur-
face current advects cold signature as far westward as

FIG. 14. Anomalies of (a) vertical entrainment (isoclines ⫺4°, ⫺2°, ⫺1°, and ⫺0.5°C month⫺1 are
given and area cooling effect stronger than ⫺0.5°C month⫺1 is shaded), and (b) CMAP rainfall (isoclines
over 50 mm month⫺1 are given and shaded, with contour interval 50 mm month⫺1) and net heat flux
(contour interval 20 W m⫺2) from OAflux, averaged from September to December 1997. In (b), positive
values indicate downward fluxes.
1 JUNE 2008
FIG. 15. Anomalies of (a) MLD and (b) BLT (m) in September–December 1997.
85°E (Fig. 13e). East of about 110°E, the ITF keeps
warming the region (Fig. 13e), and counterbalances
most of the cooling by the upwelling (Fig. 14). South of
Java, the westward surface current is apparently related
to the anticyclonic circulation anomaly shown in Fig.
16a. West of Sumatra, the westward surface current
seems to be a direct response to the wind near the
equator (Fig. 16). During this period, the horizontal
advection has more influence on the SST than the ver-
tical entrainment does.
In November–December, the ML has dropped by
more than 20 m and the BL completely disappears. This
makes the SST more susceptive to the atmospheric
forcing and oceanic processes. West of Sumatra, the
vertical entrainment and horizontal advection continue
to cool the SST (Figs. 13f and 14a). However, because
of the heat gained from the atmosphere (Fig. 14b),
mostly by enhanced latent heat flux and shortwave ra-
diation (Fig. 6), the temperature tendency turns posi-
tive at this episode, with a maximum of about 1°C
month⫺1 near the coast of Sumatra (Fig. 13c). The
southeastern Indian Ocean begins its warming episode.
6. Summary
In the present study, we explore the role of ocean
dynamics in determining the SST interannual variabil-
FIG. 16. Anomalies of (a) mixed layer surface current (cm s⫺1), and (b) wind stress (Pa) and its curl
(107 Pa m⫺1) from ERA-40 in September–December 1997.
DU ET AL. 2463
ity off Java and Sumatra. The SODA products, multi-
sources satellite measurements, and in situ observations
have been used for this analysis. During the IOD years,
with the intensified southeast monsoon, the SST
anomaly off Java and Sumatra can reach as large as
⫺3°C, comparable with that in the eastern Pacific dur-
ing ENSO years. The delicate balance between advec-
tion, upwelling–entrainment, and barrier layer forma-
tion, which dominates the seasonal heat budget off Java
and Sumatra, cannot be maintained at the interannual
time scales.
The SST interannual variability is phase locked with
the seasonal cycle. The mature phase of the positive
IOD always occurs in the southeast monsoon season.
As the intertropical convergence zone moves out of the
region, rainfall is significantly reduced, which goes
against the formation of the barrier layer. Surface
southeasterly wind enhances the coastal upwelling–
entrainment. The ML shoals and surface water are
more responsive to the thermocline entrainment, wind
forcing, and surface heat flux. Among these processes,
the effect of horizontal advection is remarkable, and
this is different from what has been discussed for the
seasonal cycle. The SODA output reveals widespread
westward surface current anomalies to the west of Java
and Sumatra, which advect cold upwelling water from
the coastal region to the ocean interior and cool down
2464 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
the SST over a large part of the STIO. The enhanced,
prolonged southeast monsoon is mostly responsible for
the current anomalies both to the region south of Java
and to the region west of Sumatra. The finding of the
westward surface current anomalies will provide an im-
portant insight into the IOD dynamics, but its full im-
plications for the ocean–atmosphere interaction in the
region require further investigation. At the end of cool-
ing episode, the surface net heat flux counterbalances
the cooling effect by horizontal advection and vertical
entrainment before the southeast monsoon reverses,
then terminates the cooling episode of an IOD event,
and begins a warming episode in the eastern Indian
Ocean.
Acknowledgments. The AVHRR Oceans Pathfinder
SST data were obtained from the Physical Oceanogra-
phy Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) at
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Califor-
nia (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov). The SODA, SeaWiFs,
and OAflux data were obtained from APDRC in
IPRC-SOEST, University of Hawaii (http://apdrc.soest.
hawaii.edu). This work was supported by the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration through Grant
NAG5-12756, by the Japan Marine Science and Tech-
nology Center through its sponsorship of the Interna-
tional Pacific Research Center (IPRC), by the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, and by the Integrated Marine
Observing System, University of Tasmania.
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