e蓮

盲主§
畠葺互
ノ軸i
3iI
s
毒嘩T
3;
-
i
ifi
S

Wes
hapeou
rbui
ldi
ngs
;the
rea
jte
f;Ourbui
ldi
ngss
hapeus
.
-Wi
nst
onChur
chi
ll

Feedba c
ki so
neo ft
hecoreconce
ptsofs yste
md ynami cs
. Yeto urment
a lmodels
oft
enf a
iltoincl
udethec r
iti
calfeedba c
ksd eterminingt hedyna micso fo ur
syst
ems ･Insyst
em dynamic
sweus ese vera
ldi agramml ngt oolstocaptur
ethe
str
uctureo fs
yst
ems,inc
ludi
ngc aus
all oopdi a
g ra
msa nds tocka ndf
lowma ps.
Thisc hapt
erfoc
usesoncausall
oopd ia
gr ams,includingg ui
de li
nes,pi
tfal
ls,a
nd
exampl es.

5.
1 CAL
･SALDI
AGRAM NoTAT5
0N
Causall
oopdi
agra
ms( CLDs )areani
mport
antt
oolf
orre
pre
sent
ingthef
Te
edbac
k
st
ruct
ureofs
yste
ms .Longus e
di nac
ade
micwo r
k,andi
ncr
easl
nglycommo ni
n
busi
ness
,CLDsareexcell
entfor
･ Qui
ckl
yca
ptu
rlngyo
urhypot
hes
esa
boutt
hec
aus
eso
fdyna
mic
s;
｡ El
ici
ti
nga
ndc
apt
url
ngt
heme
nta
lmode
lsofi
ndi
vid
ual
sort
eams
;
･ Communi
cat
ingt
hei
mpo
rta
ntf
eed
bac
ksyo
ube
lie
vea
rer
espo
nsi
blef
ora
pr
obl
em.
Thec onventi
onsfordra
wingC aus
aldiagr
a msaresimplebutshoul
dbef ollowed
fai
thful
ly.Thi
nko fcaus
aldiagramsasmus icalsc
ores.Neatne
sscounts
,a ndidi
o-
syncrat
icsymbolsandst
ylesma keithardforfel
lowmus ic
ianstore
adyo urscor
e.
Atf i
rst
,yo umayf i
nditdi
fficultt
oc onst
ructandinte
rprett
hesediag
rams .With
pract
ice,however
,youwillsoo nbesig
ht-readi
ng.

137
138 P
art
H T
わol
sfo
rSy
ste
msTh
ink
ing

Ac ausaldi agramc ons i

stsofva riablesc onnectedbya rr
owsde not lngt he
causalinf
lue nc esa mongt heva r
iables.
Thei mpo rta
ntfeedba ckloo psa rea l
soi den-
tif
iedint hedi agram. Figur e5- 1showsa ne xampl eandke yt othenot ati
on･
Variablesa rer elatedbycaus all
ink s
,s hownbya r
rows ･Int hee xa mpl e,the
birt
hr ateisde t
ermi ne dbybot hthepo pulationa ndthef racti
ona lbirthr at
e. Ea ch
causallinki sa ssigne dapol ari
ty,eit
he rpos it
ive( +)o rne gati
ve( -)t oi ndi ca
te
howt hede pe nde ntva ria blec hangeswhe nt hei ndependentvari ablec hange s. The
importantl oo psa rehi ghl ighte
dbyal oopi denti
fierwhi chs howswhe the rthe
loopisapos i
tive( reinfor cing)orne gat
ive( balancing)feedba ck･Not etha tthel oop
identi
fiercirculatesint hes amedi rect
iona sthel ooptowhi chi tcorrespo nds. Inthe
exampl e,thepos i
tivef e edba ckr e
lati
ngbi rthsa ndpopul aioni
t sc lockwi sea nds o
isit
sloopi dent if
ier;thene gati
vede at
hr ateloopI Scounterclockwi sea l
ongwi t
hi t
s
identi
fier.
Table5- 1s umma r
iz est hede f
init
ionsofl inkpol a
rit
y.

GURE5
FI -
1 Exampl
e
Caus
all
oop
di
agr
amnotat
ion
, ･･
(
Bi
rt
hRat
e 竿
R p
守 pu L
B
/
I o l
ati
on
主
Deat
hRat
e

Fr
acti
onal Aver
age
Bi
rthRat
e Li
fet
ime

Key
Ca
u
sa
IL
i
nk
, ･
Li
n
kP
ol
a
r
it
y
了
︰二㌧

Bi
rt
hRat
e Popul
ati
on
Var
iabl
e Van'
abI
e
､
こ
.Fl
:.
O
r

)(

Loopl
dent
if
ier
IPosl
r
ti
ve(
F7ei
nfor
eing)Loop
.L
n)
Q
r

Loopl
dent
if
E'
er:Negat
ive(
Bal
anci
ng)Loop
 Ch
apt
er5 Ca
usa
lLo
opDi
agr
ams 1
39

Apos itivel inkme a nst ha tifthec aus ei nc reas es,thee f

fec tinc reas esabov e
whati twoul do theJWis ehav ebe e n,a ndi ft hec ausede cre as es
,t hee f
fe ctde -
cr ease sbe lowwhati twoul dot herwi sehav ebe e n･ I
nt hee xa mpl einFi gure5- 1a n
inc reas eint hef racti
ona lbi rthr ateme a nst hebi rthr at
e( inpe oplepe rye ar)wi ll
inc reasea bovewha titwo uldha vebe en, andad ec r
e aseint hef rac
tiona lbirthr at
e
me anst hebi rthr at
ewi llf allbe lowwha titwoul dha vebe en･ Tha ti s,ifa ve rage
fe r
tili
tyr i
s es,t hebi rt
hr ate,gi ve nt hepo pul ation,wi llrise;i ff e
r ti
li
tyf alls ,the
n umbe ro fbi rthswi llfall.Whe nthec aus eisar ateo ff
lo wt ha ta ccumul a t
esi nt oa
stoc kt heni ti salsot r
uet ha tthec aus ea ddst ot hes to ck.Inthee xampl e, bi
rthsa dd
tot hepo pul ation( Seec ha pter6f ormo reo ns t
o cksa ndflows ).
Ane ga t
ivel inkme anst ha tifthec aus ei ncr ea ses,thee ffe ctde creas esbe low
whati twoul dot he r
wi sehav ebe en,a ndi fthec ausede crease s,thee f f
ectine re as e
s
abov ewhati twoul dot he rwi sehav ebe e n.Int hee xa mpl e,ani nc reasei nthea ve r-
agel i
fe ti
meo fthepopul a t
ionme anst hede a thr ate( inpe opl epe rye a r)w
il lf all
be lowwha ti two uldha vebe e n,a ndade crea sei nt hea vera gel ifeti
meme a nst he
de ahr
t at
ewi llrisea bovewha titwo ul dha vebe en.Tha tis ,i flifee xpe cta ncy
inc rease s
, t
henu mbe ro fde athswi llf al
l; andi flifee xpectancyf all
s ,t
hede athr at
e
wi llrise.
Linkpol a rit
iesd escr i
bet hes truc t
ur eo fthes ys tem. The ydonotde scr
ibet he
be ha vioro fthev a r
iables .Tha ti s,the yd escribewha two uldha ppenI Ft herewe r
e
ac han ge. The ydonotde scribewha tac t
ua llyha ppe ns.Thef ractionalbi rthr at
e
mi g htinc reas e;itmi ghtde cr eas e
-t hec ausa ld iagr amdoe sn' 日e llyo uwha twi ll
ha ppe n. Ra t
he r,
ittellsyo uwha twoul dha ppe ni ftheva ria
bl ewe ret oc hange.
No tet heph ra s
eabov e( orbe low)whati tot he rwisewoul dhav ebee ni nt he
de fini
ti ono fl i
nkpo larity.Ani ncr easei nac aus eva r
iabledoe snotne c
e ssa ril
y
me ant hee fe ctwi llactua ll
yi ncrea se.The r
ea retwor easons .Fi rs
t,ava ri
a bleo f
-
tenha smo ret hano neI nput .T bde te rminewha ta ctua ll
yha ppe nsyo une e dtoknow
howa llthei n putsa recha ngi ng. I
nt h epo pul ati
o ne xampl e,thebi rthra tede pe nds

E5･
TABL l Li
nkpol
ari
t
y:d
efi
ni
ti
onsan
dex
ampl
es

x
a
m
一
+
Symbo一 l
nter
pret
ati
on Mat
hemat
ics E p一
es

一
1
fXi
+
Allel
seequ al,i ncr
eases ∂
Y/∂X>0
(
decreases)
,t h
enYi nc
reases P
Q r
u I
OadE
.c
y
t - S ales
Inthecaseof
+ (
decreases)abov e(
below)
x∼ a
c cumul
at
ions
,
y wh atI
'
twoul dhavebeen. fo
Ef r
t - R su l
ts
I
･t e

I
nthec aseo faccumul
ati
ons, +
Xad dstoY. Y-J
t｡
(x+･-) ds+Yto
Bi
rt
hs Popul
ati
on
Allelseequ al,fXi
i ncr
eases ×<0
(
decreas e
s),thenYde c
reases l
∂
nt
Y/∂
hec as
eo f
pBo
,F
cu
ec ㌫ sales L-
(
incr
eas es
)b elo
w( ab
ove)
x∼ Y wh ati
twoul dhav ebeen. accumulat
ions,
Fr
ustr
at蒜 づ虹Resur
i es
Inthec aseo faccumu l
ati
ons, Y - 仁 × + .･･)
ds+Yt｡
Xs ubt
ractsfromY.
Deaths
一一二
由一
Popul
ati
on
140 P
ar IT
tI o
olsf
orS
yst
ems
Thi
nki
ng

o nbo t
ht he丘. ac tio
na lbi r
thr atea ndt hes i
zeo ft hepo pul ation( t
ha tis,Bi rthRa te-
Fr actiona lBi rthRa te* Po pul ation). Yo uc an nots a ywhe t
he ra ninc r easei nt he
frac ti
ona lbi rthr at
ewi lla ctua ll
yc auset hebi rthr a t
et or i
se; youa lsone edt okno w
whe the rt hepo pul ationi sr lSlngO rfa l
ling. Al a rgee no ug hdr oplnt hepo pul ation
ma yc a us et hebi rthr atet of alle veni ft hef ra ctiona lbi rt
hr aterises.Whe na sses s
-
ingt hepol a rityofi ndi vid ua llinks ,as s
u mea llot he rva ri
a blesa rec ons tant(thef a
-
mo usa ss umpt io nofc eterispar i
bus ).Whe na ss essi
ngt hea ctualbe ha viorofa
sys tem,a llva riablesi nt era cts imul tane ous ly( a lle lseisnote qua l
)a ndc o mput er
simul atio ni sus uallyne e de dt ot raceo u tthebe ha vioro fthes ystema ndde termi ne
whi c hl o opsa redo mi na nt.
Se cond,a ndmo rei mpo r tantly,C ausa ll oo pd iagramsdonotdi stingui s
hbe -
twe e ns to cksa ndf lows -t hea ccumul ationso fr e sou r
c esi nas ys t
e ma ndt her ates
ofc ha nget ha ta lterthos er eso urce s(S e
ec ha pter6) ･Int hepo pul at
ione xampl e, the
po pul atio ni sas t
oc k-i ta c cu mul atest hebi r t
hr atel essthedea thr ate.Ani ncre ase
int hebi rthr atewi lli nc rea set hepo pul at
io n, butade crea seint hebi r t
hr a t
ed oe s
no tde cre as et hepo pul a ti
o n･Bi rthsc a nonl yi nc reaset hepo pulatio n,t heyc an
ne ve rr ed uc ei t｡Thepos itivel inkbe twe e nbi rthsa ndpopul ationme a nst hatt he
birthr a tea ddst ot hepo pul ation. Thusa ni nc rea sei nthebi rthr atei nc r
e asest he
po pul atio na bovewha tito the rwi sewo uldha vebe ena ndade cr
e as
ei nt hebi rth
ratede cre as espo pul ationbe lowwha tito the rwi sewo uldha vebe en.
Simi larly, thene ga tivepo l
a ntyoft hel inkf romt hede athr atetopo pula t
ioni n-
dic atest ha tt hed eathr a tes u btrac t
sf romt hepo pul ation. Adr opl nt hede athr ate
doe sno ta d dt ot hepo pul atio n.Ad ropi nd e athsme ansf ewe rpe opled iea ndmo re
rema ina live: thepo pul a t
ioni shi ghe rthani twoul dot henvi sehav ebe e n.No t
et hat
yo uc a nnott ellwhe the rthepo pu lati
o nwi lla c tua l
lybei nc reas l
ngO rd ec reas
lng:
Po pul ationwi llbef allinge ve ni ft hebi r
thr atei srislngi ft hede a t
hr atee xcee ds
births ･Tok n owwhe the ras to cki sinc reaslngO rde c reasingyoumuS tkno wi tsne t
rateo fc ha nge( int hisc a se, birthsl essd e a
ths ). Itisa lwa yst ue
r ,howe ve r,ha
t tift he
birthr ater ise s, popul a tionwi llr isea bo vewha ti two uldha vebe enint hea bsenc e
oft hec ha ngei nbi rths ,eve ni fthepo pul ationc o ntinue stof a l
l.Po pula tionwi llbe
falli
nga tas lowe rr atet ha ni tot herwi sewo uld. Cha pters6a nd7di s
cus sthes t
ru c-
turea ndbe ha vio ro fs toc ksand f lo ws ,

Pr '
ocessPoI
nt.
･
ANot
eonNot
ati
on
lnsomeo ft
hesystemd ynamic
sli
ter
atur
e,es
peci
all
ythesyst
emsthink
ingtr
aditio
n
(se
e,e.g.
,Sengeetal.1994andKin1 992)
,anal
ter
nateconvent
ionfo
rcausaldia-
gral
rl
Shasde vel
oped.Inst
eadof幸o r-thepolari
tyOfac aus
alli
nkisdeno te
d
byso ro,res
pective
ly(denoti
ngthesameoropposi
terela
tio
nshipbet
weeni nde-
pendentanddependentvari
abl
es)
:
S +
x一一 1輸血
.Yi
nst
eado
fX 一一
- 曲虹 Y

0
x一一
一一｢鮎 .yi
nst
eadofx 一一一｢鮎 .Y
 Cha
pte
r5 Ca
usa
lLoo
pDi
agr
ams 1
41

Thel inkde not edwi tha nsi srea da s" Xa ndYmo vei nthes amedi recti
on"
whi l
et hel inkd eno te dwitha noi sr eada s" Xa ndYmovei nt heo ppo si
ted irec
-
tio
n."ThusPr od uc tQua l
itya ndSa lest endt omo vei nt hes a
medi re
c t
ionwhi l
e
Produc tPricea ndSa lest
e ndt omov ei nt heo ppos i
ted irection.
Thesa ndonot a t
ionwa smo ti
vate dbyade siretoma kec a
us a
ldi a
g r
a mse ven
easiert ounde rs
ta ndf orpe oplewi thlittlema t
he ma tica
lba c kgro und. Whi chno ta
-
tio
ni sbe tt
e risho tlyde ba te
d.Ri cha rdson( 1997)pr ovidess tronga rg ume nt
s
agalnS ttheus eo fsa ndo.Heno testha tt hes t
ateme n t"Xa ndYmovei nt hes ame
direction"i sno tinge ner
lc
a or
rect,fort her easonss tateda bo ve. Thec orrectstate
-
me nti s,"IfXi nc re ases,Yi ncreasesabov ewhati twoul dhav ebe en."Tha tis,a
causa ll i
nki sac o ntlngentS tateme ntO fthei ndivid uale fe ctofahypot he si
zed
chang e .Theva r
ia ble sXa ndYma ybepos i
tivelylinke da ndye t Yma yf a
lle venas
Xi nc re as
e s,asot he rvariabl esalsoa fe ctY.Thesa ndode finitionsa l
s odo n'
t
wo rkf o rstocka ndf lowr elati
o nships .Bi r
thsa ndpo pul at
io ndonotmovei nthe
samedi rection: ade creaseinbi rthsd oe sno tcaus epo pula t
iont ode c r
easebe ca
use
thebir t
hr atei sani nf
lo wt ot hestocko fpo pulation.Thec orrectde finit
ioni sg i
ven
inTa ble51 1:forpos iti
velin kpo lari
ty, ifXi n c
re ases,Ywi l
la lwa ysbehi g herthan
itwoul dha veb e en;f orne gativepol arity,ifXi ncre as
e s,Ywi lla l
wa ysbel ower
thani two ul dha vebe enJnt hisboo kIwi lluset he+a nd-s ignst Ode no t
elink
polarity.Asamo de leryous houldk nowho wt oi nterpretthesa ndono tat
io nwhe n
yous e eit,buty o us houldus ethe+a nd-no t
ationt ode no telinkpo l
arl
ty･

5N
望 G u旧EuNESFOR CAUSALLoopDI
AGRAMS

5.
2.1 Causat
ionver
susCor
re一
ati
on
Eve ryl inki nyo urdi a gram mus tr eprese nt(wha tyo ube l
ievet obe )Ca usalre-l
a
tionshipsbe t
we ent heva riables .Youmus tno tincludec or
relationsbe t
we e
nva r1
-
able s
. TheLa t
inr oo toft hewo rds imul ate,simulwe ,me ans" t
oi mita t
e."As ystem
dyna mi csmode lmus tmi mict hes tructureo fther eals yst
emwe l
le no ug hthatt he
mode lbe ha vest hes a
mewa yt her eals ystemwo uld･Be haviori nc lude sno to nly
replicatinghi s
toricale x periencebuta lsor espond i
ngt oc ircums tanc esa ndpo l
icies
thatar ee nt i
relynove l.Co r
relationsa mo ngva ri
ablesr ele
f c
tthepa stbe hav orofa
i
system. Co r
relat
io nsdonotr epr esentthes t
ructureo fthes ystem･ Ifc ircums t
anc es
cha nge ,ifpr evious lydor ma ntf eedba ckl oopsbe co medomi na nt,ifne wpol icies
aret r
ie d, previous lyre liableco rrelati
onsa mongva riablesma ybr e akdown･ Yo ur
mod el
sa ndc ausa ldi a
g ramsmus tinc l
udeo nlythoser elati
onshi psyo ube li
evec ap-
turetheunde r
lyingc aus als t
ruc t
u reo fthes ys t
em.Co rr
elati
onsa mo ngva riables
wille me rgef r
omt hebe ha vioro fthemo delwhe nyo us i
mul atei t･
Tho ug hs al
e sofi c ec reama repos itivelyc orr
elatedwi tht hemur de rrate,yo u
ma yno tinc ludeal inkf romi cec reams alestomur deri nyou rmo de ls .
I nst
ead, as
showni nFi gur e5- 2, bothi cec re ams a l
e sandmur de rriseins umme ra ndf allin
wint e
ra st hea veraget e mpe raturefluc tua t
es.Co nfusingc orrelationwi t
hc a
usa li
ty
canl eadt ot er
riblemi sjudg me ntsa ndpo licyerrors.Themod e lo nt hel e f
tsideof
Figure5- 2s ugge ststha tc uttl
ngl CeC reamC OnSumpt lOnWO ul ds las hthemu r der
rate,savel ives,anda llows ocietytoc u ttheb udge tforpo lic
ea ndpr isons ･
1
42 P
art
IIT
わol
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

FIGURE5 -2 l
ncor
rect Cor
rect
Cau saldiagrams
mu stin
clu de
only(wha tyou l
ceCr
eam
r ' SaJ
es
beli
evet obe)

-
1
t
日
ceCr
eam Mur
der
genu i
nec aus al Sal
es Ra
te
rel
ati
on ships.
=
t
- -
Aver
age
Temperat
ure

Whi lefe wpe oplea rel i

ke lytoa tt
ributemur de r stot heo ccasiona ldo uble-dip
cone ,ma nyc o r
relationsa remo res ubtle,andi tiso ft
e ndi ffi
c ulttod eterminet he
unde rlyingc ausals tr
uc ture. Ag rea tde alofs cient ificr esearc hs eekst hege nui ne
caus alne e d
le sinahugeha ys tackofc o r
relations :Do e svitami nCc ur ethec om-
mo nc ol d?Ca ne atl
ngOa tbra nred ucec ho l
es t
e rol,a ndi fi tdoe s, willyo urriskof
ahe a
rta tt
a c
kd r
o p?Do e seco nomi cg rowt hlea dtol owe rbi rthrate s,ori sthelowe r
ratea ttr
ibut ablet ol i
tera cy,e duca ti
onf orwome n,a ndi ncre as
lngc os tsOfc hild
rearing?Doc ompa nie swi ths eriousq ua li
tyI mpr o ve me ntp rog ramse arnS uperior
returnsf o rstockho lders ?Sc ientistsha vel earne df rombi tt
ere xpe rienc ethatre li
-
ablea ns we rstos uc hque sti
o nsa reha rdt oc omebya ndr e quirede dicati
ont ot he
scientifi
cme t
hod -c ont roll
e dexpe rime nts,rando mi ze d,do uble -blindt ia
r ls,large
sampl es,l ong- t
ermf ollow- ups tudie s,repli
c ation,s tatisti
c alinfe rence,a nds oo n.
Int hes oc ia
la ndhu ma ns ystemsweof tenmode l,s uche xpe ri
me ntsa red i
ffi
cul t
,
rare,andof teni mpos sibl e.Mod elersmus ttakee xtr ac aret oc ons i
d erwhe t
hert he
relati
ons hipsi nthe irmod elsa reca usal,noma tterhows trongt hec orrelati
on,how
hight heR2 ,0 rhowg reatt hes tatisic
t als l
gni fica nc eo ft hec oe fficientsinar e-
gres s
ionma ybe.Ast heEng lishe conomi stPhe lps-Br own( 19 ,p.6)not
7 2 ed,
"Whe re,a ssoo f
ten, thefluc t
uationso fdife rents e riesr espo ndi nc ommo ntot he
pulseo ft hee cono my , l
ti sfa t
allye asyt oge tagoodf it,andg etitf orqul teanum-
berofdi ferente quations‥ .Runnl ngr eg reSSionsbe twe ent imes eriesi sonl y
li
ke lytode ceive.門

5.
2.2 Labe圭
if
lgL≡
nkPo知 和
Bes uret
ol a
belt
hepolarlt
yO feverylinkinyou rdiag
ra ms.Labelthepolar
it
yof
theimporta
rl
tfT
ee
dbackloopsillyOl
t
ii-
diagra
ms ,-
tiS
ingthedefin
iti
o T
ISil
lTabl
e5- 1
tohe l
pyoude t
erminewhe t
herthel i
nksa r
epos it
iveo rnegat
ive.Pos i
ti
vefeed-
backloopsareals
oc al
ledrei
nforcingloopsanda rede not
edbya+o rA,whi le
negati
veloopsar
eso met
imesc al
ledbalancngl
i oopsanda r
ede note
dbya-o rA
(Fig
ure5-3).
 Ch
apt
er5 Ca
usa
lLo
opDi
agr
ams 143

GURE5
Ft -
3 l
ncor
rect
LabeHi nkan dloop
polari
ti
es.
Notet hatallli
nks
sa.
es.r
.
r .√ ( ヽ
arelabel edand Customer Customer
Wordof
l
ooppol ari
ty Base LossRate
identi
fi
ersshow
whichl oopsare
positi
veandwhi ch "ouL ノノ ＼ J j
arenega ti
ve.
Cor
rect
Loopi den t
if
ier
s
areclock wise
fortheclock wi
se
sa.
es.r
.
r ･.√ ヽ
l
oops( andvi ce Customer Customer
versa)[
Wordof
R J Base B r LossRate
量三 _
i 皇

"
o･
uし こ ノ ＼ = j v
･

5
.2.
3 De
ter
mini
ngL
oopPo一
ari
t
y
Ther
earetwomet
hodsf
ordet
ermi
nlngWhe
the
ral
oopl
Spos
it
iveo
rne
gat
ive:
the
fa
stwayandth
eri
ghtway.
144 P
art
IIT
ool
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

TheFastWay:Countt
heNumberofNegat
iveLI
'
nks
Thef astwa ytot e llifal oo pl Spos itiveo rne ga tivei st oc ountt henumbe rof
ne ga t
ivel i
n ksint hel oo p.I ft henumbe rofn e gativel i
n ksi se ven, thel oopI Spos i-
tive;i fthen umbe risod d,t hel oo pl Sne gative ･Ther ul ewor ksbe c ausepos it
ive
loo psr einforcec ha ngewhi lene ga t
ivel oo psa res elf-
c orrecting;t he yo ppos edi s-
turba nc es.Ima glneaS ma lld isturba ncei noneo ftheva riables .Ift hedi sturba nc e
pr opa gatesa ro
undt hel oopt or einforc etheo rlglnalc ha nge ,the nt hel oopI Spos i-
tive. Ifthedi sturba nc epr opa ga tesa roundt hel oo pt oo p pos etheo rlg lnalc ha nge ,
thent heloo plSne ga ti
ve .Tbo ppos ethedi sturba nce ,thes lgna lmus te xpe ri
e nc ea
ne ts l
g nr eversala si ttrave lsa r
o undt hel oo p･ Ne tr e
v er s
alc anonl yoc curi fthe
nu mbe rofne gativel inksi so dd. As ing len ega ti
vel inkc ausest hes igna ltor eve rse:
ani nc r
ea s
ebe come sade c re as
e.Buta nothe rne ga t
ivel i
n kr eve rs est hes lgna l
aga ln,S Othed ecre asebe c ome sa ni nc rease ,reinf orcl
ngt heo rlglna ldi sturba nc e.
Se e" Ma t
he ma t
ic so fLoo pPol arity"be lowf oraf orma ld eriva t
ionoft hisr ule.
Thef a
s tme thoda lwa yswo rks... exce ptwhe ni tdoe sn't.Whymi ghti tf ail?
Inac o mple xd i
a grami tisa llt ooe a
s yt omi s coun tthen umbe rofne ga tivel inksi n
al oo p.Andi tise asyt omi sla belt hepo larl
tyO flinkswhe nyo uf i
r std rawt hed i
-a
gr am. Co unt l
ngt hen umbe rofne ga ti
ves lgnSi sun likelyt or eve althe see 汀O rS.The
rightme thod, Care f
ul lytrac lngt hee ff
e cto fadi st
u rbanc ea roundt hel oop, wi llo f-
tenr eve alawr o ng lyl abeledpol ar it
ya ndwi ll helpyo ua ndyo uraudi enc et og rasp
theme anlnga ndme chani smo ft hel oo p,As signlngl oo ppol arityt her ightwa y
rathe rthant hef astwa ys ave st imei nthel ongr un･

TheRi
ghtWay:T
racet
heEf
fectofaChangear
oundt
heLoop
Ther ightwa ytode terminet hepol ar
ityo fal oo pI St Ot ra cethee fe ctofas ma l
l
chang eino neo ft heva riable sasl tPr o paga t
e sa rou ndt hel oop･ Ifthef eed ba c
ke f
-
fectreinforce stheo r l
glnalc ha ng e, itisapos i
tivel oop; ifi to ppos estheo rl
glna l
change ,itisane gativeloo p. Youc a ns tartwi t
ha n yva riabl eint hel oo p;ther esult
mus tbet hes ame.I nt hema rke tl oopss howni nFi gure5- 3,a ss umes ale sfrom
wo rdo fmo uthinc rease. Be caus et hel i
nkf ro ms a l
e sfro mwo rdo fmout ht ot he
custome rba seispos it
ive, thec us to me rba sei ncr ease s･Be causet hel inkf ro mt he
custome rba seba ckt os alesf romwo rdo fmo ut
hi spos itive ,hes
t ignalpr o pagates
aroundt heloo pt oinc r
ea ses alesfr omwor do fmo uths ti
ll fu r
the r
. Thef eed ba c
ke f
-
fectreinforc est
heo rl
glna lc hange ,s ot hel oo pI Spos itive.Tur ningt Otheot he r
loop, ass
u meas ma llincreas eint hec ustome rl ossr a t
e. Ifc ustome rlossesi nc r
eas e,
thec ustome rba sef a i
ls.Wi t
hal owe rcus tome rba se,the rea rel reWe rC ustome r
s
whoc and ropo ut .Thef T
eed ba cke fe cto ppos est heo rl
g lna lcha nge ,sot hel oopI S
negative.
Th i
sme thodwo rksnoma tt
e rhowma nyva ria blesa rei nal oo pa ndnoma t
ter
whic hva ri
abl eyo us tar
twi th. (Ide ntifythel oo ppo la r
iti
e sf orthee xampl es t
arting
withc ustome rba sei nst
e adofs ale s丘･omwo rdo fmo uth: yo us hou l
dge tt hes ame
res
ul t
).Yo uma ya lsoa ssumea ni nitialde creas einava ria blera t
he rtha na ni nitia
l
Inc
r ease.
Ch
apt
er5 Ca
usa
lLo
opDi
agr
ams 145

E
dent
if
yingLi
nkandLoopPobr
it
y
Ide
nti
fyandl
abe
lthepol
ari
tyoft
hel
inksa
ndl
oopsi
nthee
xampl
ess
howni
n

en
e
ss
Fig
ure5-
5.

了 Ck
tN
u
mb
e
ro
f
A
t
t
r
oa
c
f
M
t
i
v
a
C
u
m
P
r
o
r
u
d
u一
a
t
i
c
t
i
ov
e
n

p
r
誓＼P
r
i
c
e
o
m
pe
t
i
to
r
s了
M
a
rk
et
ノ ieeJ
√一
/
＼
＼
C
l
U
n
o
si
t
t
s Shar
e

㌧ ー Pr

B
a
Rn
k
C
e
s
e
ra
s
h
v
e
s＼
＼
･＼
勺
了
Pr
essur
'
etoCl
ean

F
upEnvi
ronment㌔
e
t
d
r
a
wa
l
sS P
e
or
c
e
i
l
v
e
nv
e
B
a
N d
Envi
ronment
a】 Cleanup

も
＼一一/
/
Quali
ty Effor
t wi
th cyof
k
>
＼
＼-｣ _
ノー//

Mat
hemat
i
csofLoopPol
ari
t
y
Whe nyoude t
ermi nel ooppol arlty,youa reC alculatlngWha tisknowni nc ontr ol
theor ya stheslgnOft heope nl oopga i
noft hel oop. Thet erm" gain"r eferstot he
str
e ngthoft hes l
gna lr et
ume dbyt hel oop:aga inOft wome ansac hangei nava ri-
ablei sdo ublede achc yclea roundt hel oop;aga lnOfne gat
ive0. 5me ansthedi -s
turba ncepr opagatesa roundt heloopt ooppos eitselfwi thas tr
engt hha l
fa slarge.
Thet em H openl oop"me anst hega l
ni sca l
culatedf orJustonef eedba ckcyc leby
brea king-ope nl
ng -t heloopa ts omepol nt･Cons ide ranarbit
raryf eedbac kloop
cons istl
ngOfnva ri
a bles,x l,.I･,Xn .Youc anc alcula t
etheo penl oopga ina ta ny
polnt ;le
txlde notet heva riableyouc hoos e.Whe nyo ubr ea
kt heloop, Ⅹ1Splitsint o
ani nput ,XII,andout put,xl O( Figure51 6).Theope nl oopga i
ni sde finedast he
(partil)de
a rivat
iveofxl Owi thr e
spe cttoXI I
, t
hatis, thefeedbacke ffectofas ma ll
changei nthev ariablea sitr eturnst oitself.
Thepol ar i
tyofthel oopi sthes ignof
theope nloopg aln:
Po
lar
it
yofl
oop-SGN(
∂Ⅹ1
0/∂
Xii
) (
5-1
)

wher
eSGN()isthesignum ors ignfunc t
ion,re
tur
ning+1i fi
tsa
rgumentispos
i-
t
iveand-1iftheargume nti
sne ga
tive( i
ftheopenloopgaini
sz r
eo,t
heSGN
f
unct
ion-0:thereisnol oop)ATheope nl oopgai
ni sc
alc
ulat
edbythechai
nrule
f
rom t
hega
lnSOftheindividuallinks,∂xl
/∂xl【1
:
SGN(
∂xl
O/∂
x17
)-sGN[
(∂xl
O/∂
xn)
(∂X
n/∂
xn_1
)(
∂Xn
_1/
∂xn
_2)･･
･(∂
x2/
∂xI
I
)] (
5-2)
 a
t
at
h
e
-
o
n
y
p
i
n
tp
146 Pa
r I ¶)
tI ol
sfo
rSy
st
ems
Thi
nki
ng

∴-
I
もt 了x l
O
｢
GURE5
Fd -
6 Br
eak
Calc
ulati
ngt
he
open-
loopgal
n
ofaloop

x
Lx
,
)4fe
e
f
r
°.
u
e
n
c
x
L3) tr
acet
:n望change
the一
h

oop
a

.
x 4

PoJ
ari
ty=SGN(
∂xl
O/∂
xll
)

∂
xl0/
∂xl
l-(
∂Ⅹ1
0/∂Ⅹ4
)(∂
Ⅹ4/
∂x3
)(∂Ⅹ3
/∂x2
)(∂x2
/∂x
IB)

Sinc
ethes
ignofapr
oduc
tist
hepr
oduc
toft
hes
lgnS
,loo
ppol
arl
tyl
Sal
so
g
lVe
nby:
SGN(
∂Ⅹ10
/∂Ⅹ1
)-SGN(
Ⅰ ∂Ⅹ1
0/
∂X)*
｡ SGN(
∂X｡
/∂Xn
ー1)辛SGN(
∂x｡
_1/
∂Xn
_2)
*･
･･*SGN(ax2/axi
I) (
513)

Usi
ngtherightme thodtodete
rminel
ooppo la
rit
ybyt ra
c l
ngt heefectofa
s
ma l
lchangearoundal oopisequi
vale
ntt
oc a
lculat
ingequat
ion( 5-3)
.Equati
on
(
5-3)al
soexpl
a i
nswhyt hef
astmetho
dwo r
ks:Sincetheproductoftwonegati
ve
s
lgnSi
saposit
ives l
gn,negat
iveopenl
ooppol
arl
tyrequlr
eSanOddn umbe ro
fn e
g-
a
ti
velinksi
nthel oop｡

Al
lLi
nksShou/
dHav
eUnambi
guousPol
an'
t
ies
So me ti
me spe opl esayal i
nkc anbee it
herpos itiveorne gati
ve ,dependi ngo no 血er
pa ra
me tersoro nwhe ret hes ys temi sope ratl
ng. Fo rexa mple,pe opleo ft
end raw
血edi agramo nt hel ef
ts ideo fFi gu re5-7r ela
tlngaf ir
m' sreve nuetot hepr lCeOf
itspro d
uc tandt he na r
g uet hat thelinkbe tweenpr l
Cea ndc ompa nyr eve nueca nbe
eitherpos it
iveo rne gative ,de pendingo nt hee last
icit
yOfde ma nd.I fde ma ndis
highlye lastic,ahi ghe rpr lCeme ansl essrevenuebe c ausea1 %i ncrea seinpr l
Ce
cause sdema ndt ofallmo retha n1 %. Thel inkwoul dha vene gativepol arit
y.Ifde-
ma ndi sinela s
tic, t
hena1 %i nc reaseinp rl
CeC a usesdema ndt odr oples sthan1 %,
sor evenue sr i
se. Thel inkwo uldbepos iti
ve .Itappe arsnos inglepol aritycanbe
asslgned.
Whe nyouha vetrou blea sslgnlngaC leara nduna mbiguouspol ar
ityt oalinkit
usuallyme ansthe reismo retha no nec ausalpa thwa yc onnect
lngt het wova r
iables
.
Yo us houldma ket he s
ed ifere ntpa t
hwa yse xpl ic
itinyo urd iagram. Int heexa m-
ple,pr i
ceha sa tle as
ttwoe ff
e ctsonr evenue:( 1 )itdetermineshowmuc hrevenue
isg e
ne rat
e dpe runi tsolda nd( 2)ita f
fectsthenumbe rofunitss old.Tha tis,Reve-
nue-Pr ice* Sa les,and( Uni t)Sa lesdepe ndo nPr ic
e( presuma blyt hede ma nd
curvei sdownwa rds l
opi ng:Hi ghe rpricesr educ esa l
es).Thepr operd ia
grami s
 Cha
pte
r5 Ca
usa
lLoo
pDi
agr
ams 147

GURE 5-
FI 7 l
ncor
rect Cor
rect
Cau sa川nk s
mus th ave
unambi guous r ･o
,( r-
) r ･
polarit
y. P
ri
e
c R
ev
enue Pr
ice R
ev
en
ue
App arentl
y
ambi guous ＼ sa.
es Jメ +
poLarit
i
esusu al
l
y
i
n di
c at
et he
presen ceof
multipl
ec ausal showno nther i
g hts ideofFi gu re51 7.Th erei sno wnoa mbi gui t
ya boutt hepol ar
1
pathwa ysthat 1tyOfa n
yo fth elinks .
shouldbe Thepr icee lastlCltyO fdema ndde termine swhi c hca usal pathwa ydo mi nat
es ･I
f
represented dema ndi squi t
ei nse ns i
tivetopr ice(thee l
asticityo fd ema ndi sl essthano ne),then
separ at
e一y. thelowe rpa thi nFi g ure5- 7i swe ak,pr lCer aisesuni tr eve nuemo r
etha nitde -
creasess al
es ,andt hene teffectofa nincrea seinpr i
cei sani ncr easeinr evenue.
Co nversely,i fc ustome rsa r
equi tepr ices ens i
tive( thee last
icityofde mandi s
greaterthano ne) ,thel owerpa thdo minates .Thei ncre asei nr evenuepe runitis
mo rethano f fsetbyt hede cl
inei nthen umbe ro fu ni
tss old,s ot hene tefe ctofa
priceris
ei sad ropl nr evenue. Separatlngthepa thwa ysa lsoa l
lowsyo utos pec i
fy
diffe
rentd elays ,ifa ny ,lne a
c h. I
nt hee xampl eabove , therei slike l
ytobeal o ng
delaybetwe e nac hang einprlCea ndac hang eins ale s
,whi l
et herei sli
tt
leo rnode -
laylnthee ffe cto fpr iceo nreve nue.
Separatlngl inkswi t
ha ppa rent
lya mbi guo uspo lar
ityI ntot heunde rl
y ingmul -
ti
plepa thwa ysi saf ruitfulme thodt ode epe nyo urunde rstandingoft hec aus a
l
struct
ure, d
e lays, andbe havioroft hes ys t
em.

Enl
PioyeeMo的f
ati
on
Yo urc li
e ntteami swo r
rieda boute mpl oyeemot iva tiona ndi sde ba t
ingt hebe s
t
wa yst oge ne r
atema ximume fo rtf romt he i
rpe opl e･ The yha ved ra wnadi agram
(Figu r
e5- 8)anda rea rguinga boutt hepo larit
yo ft hel in ks･Oneg roupa r
g uesthat
theg r
eatert hepe rforma nces ho rtfall(theg reaterthega pbe twe enRe quiredPe r
forma ncea ndAc tualPe rfor ma nc e),theg reaterthemo ti
va tiono fe mpl oye eswi l
l
be. The ya rguetha tthes e c
r eto fmot i
va t
ioni stos e ta gg r
e ssive ,
e veni mpos si
ble
goa ls(soICa l
leds tr
etcho bj
e ctives )toe li
citma ximummo tivationa nde fo rt
.The
othe rgrou pa r
gue sthatto obi gape rforma ncesho rtfalls impl yc ause sfrustrati
ona s
peo pleco ncludethe reisnoc ha nc etoa cco mplishthegoa l
,s othel inktoe mpl oyee
mo tivati
o ns houl
dbene gative. Ex pandt hed iagramt or esolvet hea p parentc onli
f c
t
byi nco r
po rati
ngbot hthe ories. Di scusswhi chl i
n ksdo mina teunde rdifferentcr
i -

cums t
anc es.Canyougi ves o mee xampl esf romyou rowne x perienc ewhe rethese
differentpa thwa yswe redomi nant ?Howc a
nama na gert e l
lwhi chpa thwa yl S
li
ke lytodo mi nat
ei na nys it
ua tion?W h a tarethei mpl ic ationsf orgoa lse t
tlnglnO r
-
gani zati
ons ?Ac tuala ndr eq uiredpe rforma ncea renote xoge nousbutpa rtoft he
feed backs tructure.How doe smo t
ivationf eedba ckt ope rforma nce ,andho w
mi ghta ct
ua lperforma ncea ffec tthegoa l?I ndicat
et he s eloo psi nyo urdi agrama nd
expl ai
nt heirimpo rtanc e.
148 Pa
rtIT
I わ
olsf
orS
yst
em sTh
ink
ing

Actual Requir
ed
Per
for
mance Per
for
mance
＼ヽ 〆 /
/ Perf
ormance
/

Shor
tf
all

Employee
Mot
ivati
on

5.
2,4 N･
3meYourLoops
Whe the ryouus ec aus aldi a gr amst oe licitt heme ntalmode lsofac lientgr oupo rto
c ommuni ca tet hef ee dba cks truc tureofamode l,youwi llof tenf indyour selftrying
toke e pt ra ckofmo rel oopst ha nyouc a nha ndl e･ Yourdi agr amsc ane asilyove r-
whe l
mt hepe opleyoua ret rylngt Or each. Tbhe lpyoura udi e ncena vlga tethene t-
wor kofl oops ,it'
She l
pf ult ogl Veea chi mpor tantf eedba ckanumbe ra ndana me.
Numbe ringt hel oo psRl ,R2, B1 ,B2, ands oonhe lpsyoura udie nc ef i
nde achl oop
a syoudi sc us si t
･Na ml ngt hel oo pshe l
psyoura udi e
nc eunde rstandt hef unc ti
onof
e achl oo pa ndpr ovi de sus efu ls hor t
ha ndf ordi scus s i
on. Thel abe l
st he ns t
andi nfわr
ac ompl e xs e tofc aus all inks ･ Whe nwor ki ngwi thac l
ie ntg roup,l t'
sof tenpos si-
bl et oge tthe mt ona met hel oop. Ma nyt imes ,the ywi lls ugge stawhi ms ical phr as
e
o rs omeor ga nization- spe c i
f icj argonf ore achl oop.
Fi gur e51 9S howsac aus a ldi agr amde velope dbye ngi ne ersa ndma nage rsi na
wor ks hopdes ignedt oe xpl or et hec aus esofl at ede l
ive ryf ort he iror ga niza ti
on's
des ignwor k｡Thedi agr amr e pres entst hebe ha vioroft hee ngl ne erStryl ngt O
compl eteapr ojecta ga lnStade adline. Thee ngl ne erSc ompa rethewo rkre ma ining
tobedonea ga i
nstt het imer ema iningbe f orethede adl i
ne. Thel ar gert hega p, t
he
mor eSc he dul ePr e ssur ethe yf e el･Whe ns chedul epr ess urebui l
dsup,e ngl ne er
S
ha ves eve ra lc hoice s. First,the yc a nwor kove r
timeJns te adoft heno rma l50hour s
pe rwe e k, the yc anc omet owor ke arly, skipl unc h,s t
ayl ate, andwo rkt hrought he
we eke nd.Bybur ningt heMi dni ghtOi l,the yinc r easet her atea twhi c hthe yc om-
ple tet he irt as ks,cutt heba c kl ogofwor k,a ndr elievet hes c hedul epr essure( ba l
-
anc ingl oopB1 ).Howe ver ,ift hewor kwe eks tayst oohi ght ool ong, fat
igues etsin
andpr oduc tivltyS uf fer s･Aspr oduc ti
vi t
yf a l
ls ,t het askc ompl etionr at
edr ops ,
whi chi nc re a sessc he dul epr es sur ea ndl ea dstos tilllonge rhour s:ther einf orcing
Bur noutl oopRll imi tst hee fe c ti
ve ne ssofove rtime. Anot he rwa yt oc ompl e tethe
wor kf a steri st or e duc et het imes pe ntonea cht ask.Spe ndi ngl es stimeone ach
taskboos tsthenumbe roft a sksdonepe rhour( pr oduc tivit y)a ndr elievess che dule
pr essur e, thusc losingt heba lanc l
ngl oopB2･ Di sc ussi
o noft hena mef ort hisl oop
wa shea ted.Thema na ge rsc laime dt hee nglne e rSa lwa ysgol d-pl atedt he i
rwor k;
the yf elts c he dulepr es surewa sne e dedt os que ez eoutwa stea ndge tthee ngi ne er
s
tof oc usont hej ob. Thee ngl ne e rSa rgue dt ha tsc he dulepr ess ureo fte nros es ohi gh
thatt he yha dnoc hoi c ebutt oc utba c kqua l
itya s suranc ea nds ki pdoc ume ntation