Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.

org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), is issued daily by the London-based Baltic
Exchange. The BDI is a composite of the Capesize, Panamax and
Supramax Timecharter Averages. It is reported around the world as a
proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks as well as a general shipping market
bellwether. Baltic Dry Index 1985–2013

The BDI is the successor to the Baltic Freight Index (BFI) and came into
operation on 1 November 1999. The BDI continues the established time series of the BFI, however, users of the index
should note that the voyages and vessels covered by the index have changed over time so caution should be exercised in
assuming long term constancy of the data.

Contents
Historical origin

How it w orks

Rev iew of the w eighting of the BDI

Importance

Significant lev els

References

External links

Historical origin
In 1744, the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street, London, changed its name to Virginia and
Baltick, to more accurately describe the business interests of the merchants who gathered there. Today's Baltic
Exchange has its roots in a committee of merchants formed in 1823 to regulate trading and formalize the exchange of
securities on the premises, which by then had moved to the Antwerp Tavern.[1] The first daily freight index was
published by the Baltic Exchange in January 1985.[2]

How it works
Every working day, a panel of international shipbrokers submits their assessment of the current freight cost on various
routes to the Baltic Exchange. The routes are meant to be representative, i.e. large enough in volume to matter for the
overall market.

These rate assessments are then weighted together to create both the overall BDI and the size specific Capesize,
Panamax, and Supramax indices. The BDI factors in three different sizes of oceangoing dry bulk transport vessels: [3]

1 of 5 3/16/2018, 7:54 AM
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

The BDI is based on daily assessments of the following 20 routes:

Capesize (180,000
dwt)

C8_14 Gibraltar/Hamburg transatlantic round

C9_14 Continent/Mediterranean trip China-Japan

C10_14 China-Japan transpacific round voyage

C14 China-Brazil round voyage

China via Australia/Indonesia or South Africa or Brazil or US West Coast to

C16
UK/Continent/Mediterranean

Panamax (82,500 dwt)

P1A_82 Skaw-Gib transatlantic round voyage

P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-S Korea incl Taiwan

P3A_82 HK-S Korea incl Taiwan 1 Pacific round voyage

P4_82 HK-S Korea incl Taiwan trip to Skaw-Gib

P6_82 Dely Spore or Busan (during US grain season) round voyage via Atlantic

Supramax (58,328 dw t)

S1B_58 Canakkale trip via Med or Bl Sea to China-South Korea

S1C_58 US Gulf trip to China-south Japan

S2_58 North China one Australian or Pacific round voyage

S3_58 North China trip to West Africa

S4A_58 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero

S4B_58 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf

S5_58 West Africa trip via east coast South America to north China

S8_58 South China trip via Indonesia to east coast India

S9_58 West Africa trip via east coast South America to Skaw-Passero

S10_58 South China trip via Indonesia to south China

The BDI contains route assessments based only on time-charter hire rates "USD hire paid per day".

The index can be accessed on a subscription basis directly from the Baltic Exchange as well as from some financial
information and news services such as Bloomberg and Reuters.

Review of the weighting of the BDI

2 of 5 3/16/2018, 7:54 AM
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

Following consultation with members, in January 2018 the Baltic Exchange announced that it will be implementing
changes to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). From 1 March 2018 the BDI will be re-weighted to the following ratios of
timecharter assessments: 40% Capesize, 30% Panamax and 30% Supramax and will no longer include the
Handysize timecharter average. A multiplier of 0.1 will be applied.

External research concluded that the contribution of the various dry bulk vessel types to the dry bulk market was 40%
Capesize, 25% Panamax, 25% Supramax and 10% Handysize. This analysis was based on the fleet composition, vessel
utilisation including ballasting and total cargo moved – based on import/export reports and AIS data, the BDI
weightings will be reviewed on an annual basis. The decision to not include Handysize contributions makes no
statistical difference to the calculation of the BDI, based on the above weightings.

The Baltic Exchange will continue to report the Handysize vessel market and in November 2017, as part of the ongoing
review of its indices, launched a trial of a new Handysize Imabari 38 benchmark vessel and seven timecharter routes.

Importance
Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand
for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved in various markets (supply and demand).

The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic—it takes two years to build a new ship, and the cost of
laying up a ship is too high to take out of trade for short intervals,[4] the way you might park a car safely over the winter.
So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the
index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships
competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..." [5]
The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such
as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.

Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate
or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food; the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator
of future economic growth and production. The BDI is considered by some people as a leading economic indicator
because it predicts future economic activity.[6][7]

Other leading economic indicators—which serve as the foundation of important political and economic decisions—are
often measured to serve narrow interests, and subjected to adjustments or revisions. Payroll or employment numbers
are often estimates; consumer confidence appears to measure nothing more than sentiment, often with no link to
actual consumer behavior; gross national product figures are consistently revised, and so forth. Unlike stock and bond
markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at
TheStreet.com. "People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move."[8]

Significant levels
On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a
year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986; [9] though by 4
February 2009 it had recovered a little lost ground, back to 1,316.[10] These low rates moved dangerously close to the
combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews.[11][12]

By the end of 2008, shipping times had been already increased by reduced speeds to save fuel consumption, but lack of

3 of 5 3/16/2018, 7:54 AM
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

credit meant the reduction of letters of credit, historically required to load cargoes for departure at ports. Debt load of
future ship construction was also a problem for shipping companies, with several major bankruptcies and implications
for shipyards.[13][14] This, combined with the collapsing price of raw commodities created a perfect storm for the world's
marine commerce.

During 2009, the index recovered as high as 4661, but then bottomed out at 1043 in February, 2011, after continued
deliveries of new ships and flooding in Australia.[15]

Though rebounding to 2000 on 7 October,[16] by 3 February 2012, the index made a new multi-decade low of 647 on a
continued glut of dry bulk carriers and decreases in orders of iron and coal. [17]

On 10 February 2016 the Baltic Dry Index reached the historic low of 290.[18]

By November 15 2016 it rebounded to over 1000 sending the entire shipping industry to massive gains. Some
companies reached 2000%+ in share price gains in as little as 5 days.

References
1. Baltic Exchange (http://www.balticexchange.com/about-us/history/) History
2. Odom, Payton (2010). "Shipping Indexes Signal Global Economic Trends - Globalization and Monetary
Policy Institute 2010 Annual Report" (https://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/annual
/2010/annual10e.pdf) (PDF). www.dallasfed.org. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. p. 28. Retrieved
19 December 2015. "The BDI began in 1985 as the Baltic Freight Index"
3. Data from Wikinvest, "Composition of the Baltic Dry Index"
4. How are ships laid up today? (https://www.bimco.org/Education/Seascapes/Questions_of_shipping
/2014_01_03_How_are_ships_laid_up_today.aspx)
5. "Hurting the real economy" (http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12414753&
source=features_box1&mode=comment&intent=readBottom). The Economist. Retrieved 22 April 2015.
6. Rothfeder, Jefrey (26 June 2016). "The surprising relevance of the Baltic dry index"
(http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/the-surprising-relevance-of-the-baltic-dry-index). The New
Yorker. Retrieved 1 September 2016.
7. Commodity indicators Show Strain On Bull (market) (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie
/2008/0731.html) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20081013031417/http://www.financialsense.com
/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/0731.html) 13 October 2008 at the Wayback Machine.
8. Why you should care about The Baltic Dry Index (http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/)
9. Collapse in dry bulk shipping rates unprecedented in its severity (http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Shipping
/10263782.html)
10. Commodity Shipping Index Advances the Most Since at Least 1985 (https://www.bloomberg.com
/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ah6n4sxikADs&refer=news)
11. Marine Shippers Scuttled As Baltic Measure Hits Low (http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2008/10
/28/marine-shippers-scuttled-as-baltic-measure-hits-low/?mod=yahoobarrons)
12. Baltic Dry Index Drops Below 1,000 for First Time in Six Years (https://www.bloomberg.com
/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ad8JhQ4fitVY&refer=europe)
13. Asian shipyards face prospect of bankruptcy (http://www.yourshipbuildingnews.com
/news_item.php?newsID=12150)
14. Shipper Industrial Carriers Files for Bankruptcy (https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&
sid=ampw1MzQhaMc&refer=europe)

4 of 5 3/16/2018, 7:54 AM
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

15. Bloomberg Dry-Bulk Shipping Extends 2011 Drop to 20% on Australia Floods (http://www.businessweek.com
/news/2011-01-19/dry-bulk-shipping-extends-2011-drop-to-20-on-australia-floods.html)
16. "Baltic Dry Index Is At 2000 - But Nobody Is Watching" (http://seekingalpha.com/article/298669-baltic-dry-
index-is-at-2000-but-nobody-is-watching).
17. "Dry Bulk Freight Index Drops and Container Shipping Line Forecasts and Profits Slump"
(http://www.handyshippingguide.com/shipping-news/dry-bulk-freight-index-drops-and-container-shipping-line-
forecasts-and-profits-slump_3438).
18. "Baltic Dry Index falls to 290, down 1 points" (http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-falls-
to-290-down-1-points/).

External links
The best economic indicator you've never heard of (http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/) - Article at Slate.com
Bloomberg BDIY index (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart)

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Baltic_Dry_Index&oldid=828113108"

This page w as last edited on 28 February 2018, at 17:10.

Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; additional terms may apply. By
using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the
Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-profit organization.

5 of 5 3/16/2018, 7:54 AM